To The Moon

Despite a strong rise over the past year, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has failed to outperform gold prices, contrasting with its historical trends. This underwhelming performance reflects structural issues that are likely to continue over the long term. Gold itself appears overvalued amid high real bond yields and a strong dollar. At current gold prices, GDX's free cash flow yield is likely to rise to a respectable 4%, suggesting a short position is no longer valid. shells1 The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) has been disappointing gold bulls for years. Despite rising 37% since my previous bearish article in February, the ETF

The XLE ETF, dominated by Exxon and Chevron, has decoupled from WTI crude oil prices over the past 18 months, suggesting a potential profit-taking opportunity. At current oil prices, the P/E ratio may rise to over 20x over the next 12 months, which would be expensive for a sector that is barely growing. Investors are likely to be better off buying oil futures rather than the XLE, as the current ratio implies negative excess returns over the coming years. Jeremy Poland After being bullish the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) since the Covid lows, I am shifting to a neutral stance due to the disconnect between the ETF and the price of crude oil, which has reached near-record

AMZN is the most loved stock on Wall Street, with 94% buy recommendation and zero sells, as analysts and investors extrapolate out recent strong growth. While the headline PE ratio is 42x, this figure almost doubles when we look at actual free cash flows available to investors. The company's already huge sales and operating income suggest double digit growth unlikely to last, making Amazon a potential growth trap. hapabapa Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) have outperformed the market over recent months as the company's earnings have soared. The rise in earnings has seen the stock's PE ratio fall to its lowest level since 2009, and its lowest relative to the S&P500

Summary Weibo Corporation's market cap has dropped 95% since 2018, yet its book value has tripled, resulting in the stock trading at around half of book value. This low P/B ratio does not reflect low return on equity or poor asset quality, suggesting the stock is deeply undervalued. At 6x earnings and with an 11% dividend yield, investors are likely to generate strong returns unless Weibo's sales take a drastic decline. Despite regulatory risks, the valuation gap between US and Chinese tech seems unjustified, particularly as Western governance systems are becoming increasing interventionist. Robert Way Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ:WB) is one of the cheapest stocks I have seen, with its market cap having fallen 95% from its peak of above USD30bn

Summary Rolls-Royce's stock has risen 15x since October 2020 due to multiple expansion due to declining default risk and optimism over power generation capabilities. The company's price to sales ratio is now at record highs, and based on this metric's relationship with subsequent returns in the past, it implies deeply negative 10-year annualised returns. The company's balance sheet remains negative by GBP3.6bn and with air travel still representing the bulk of earnings, the company remains as exposed to recession as ever. The potential for growth in Small Modular Reactors provides significant upside risks, but current valuations mean investors now rely on an unprecedented earnings boom in order to generate strong returns. Michael Derrer Fuchs Since its low in October 2020, Rolls-Royce (

Summary Walmart's PE ratio has surged to 33x, its highest since 2002, while the rise in capex has seen the price-to-free cash flow ratio rise above 50x. The company's earnings growth is unlikely to justify current valuations, amid the limited potential for significant sales growth amid rising competition and the company's already huge scale. Upside risks include continued multiple expansion and potential margin growth from high-margin segments like advertising, though these factors already appear priced in. snyferok Walmart (NYSE:WMT) has seen its share price surge over recent years, making it one of the best performing US mega cap stocks. However, in contrast to many other companies, Walmart's earnings growth has been poor, which has drive

SummaryThe KLIP ETF offers steady returns with low volatility by generating monthly call option income, ideal for income-focused investors in undervalued China tech stocks.The KWEB's low valuations and strong cash positions among Chinese tech companies should limit the potential for downside.KLIP's buywrite strategy has outperformed KWEB, providing high returns with less volatility, making it suitable for risk-averse investors.Despite a high expense ratio, KLIP should deliver strong risk-adjusted returns in the coming years.da-kukSince I last covered the Kraneshares China Internet And Covered Call Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA:KLIP) in

Summary Introducing a new recurring series to help you gauge the current state of the economy and the market: The Macro Brief. This monthly series will showcase what our analysts say about the latest economic and market news and what it could mean for investors. We'll highlight the popular themes each month and provide counterpoints if applicable. In addition, we will provide a market and economic snapshot to review the month's most important numbers. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome SA Editor Kevin M. Sanford as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access.

Summary Shorting stocks has historically been a losing strategy, but current conditions resemble those that occurred at the 2000 bubble peak and gave rise to 125% gains for short sellers. With cash now yielding far in excess of the S&P500 dividend yield short sellers now get paid handsomely for betting against the market. Even a mild rise in the equity risk premium from near zero currently could result in significant capital gains for short sellers. Adam Gault Shorting the S&P500 has proven to be a disastrous strategy over the long term, with a long position in the daily inverse S&P500 index having lost 92% of its value since 2009. It is no surprise therefore that short interest on US stocks has crashed to multiyear lows. However, there have been periods when short selling the

DNY59 US large cap stocks have outperformed US Treasuries by near record amounts over the past decade, and this has provided a great opportunity for investors to shift into bonds and away from stocks. I last made the case for US bonds relative to stocks last year on the basis of relative valuations and the weak nominal growth outlook. Remarkably, equity outperformance has actually accelerated since then even as inflation expectations and consumer confidence has fallen, marking a major departure from the past 5 years. We are now in extremely dangerous territory for equity investors and I fully expect the S&P500 to lose at least 50% relative to long term bonds such as