$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This JPM Collar expires tomorrow and NEW one added at 2pm. One of the most important things to watch for this week. Here’s why: JPM buys a collar to hedge: • Sells calls → caps upside • Buys puts → protects downside • Sells lower puts → funds the trade Translation: They define a range for the market. For institutions: It’s risk management at massive scale. For retail traders: It’s a cheat code. Because price often gravitates, reacts, or pins near these levels. 2 ways to think about it: If the short call is <7200 → tighter upside cap (more neutral) If >7200 → more room to run (bullish skew) If the long put is <6000 → protection deeper → implies downside risk If >6000 → protection closer → implies market is stronger F
$SPY Breakdown Accelerates, $620 Test Likely, $600 in Play
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is breaking down fast right now. We topped around $690–$697 and have now lost key supports at $677, $652, and $635 today. We’re now trading near $631…and there’s not much support below. The next major level is $620 for me. That’s the first real zone where buyers should step in. Below that? $600 becomes the magnet. Here’s how I see it: 70% chance we test $620 30–40% chance we break under $600 Right now, momentum is bearish. But the reaction at $620 is everything. If buyers step in strong → we bounce. If not → this accelerates fast to $600. Macro matters here too. War = uncertainty Uncertainty = volatility Volatility = downside pressure I still believe the market likely finds a bottom in March/April if this conflict
$SPY War Playbook: Buy the Fear, Not the Ceasefire
Remember, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ALWAYS bottoms BEFORE war ends. SPY could easily bottom in March/early April. History proves this to be true: The pattern is the same in these 5 US wars: Markets bottom early and recover before wars end. The bottom comes fast. SPY prices in worst-case scenarios within weeks or months. By the time the war ends, most of the gains are already gone. Certainty drives rallies. During the Iraq War, markets bottomed 8 days before the invasion. Once uncertainty disappeared, stocks rallied 27% over the next year. Short wars follow a pattern. The Gulf War dropped 21%, bottomed months before the ceasefire, then gained 29% in the next year. Long wars matter less. Afghanistan lasted 20 years, but the market bottom was
$NVDA $AMZN Lead “P/E Crash”: Are Big Tech Stocks Now Cheap?
All 7 tech stocks are super cheap based on P/E (price to earnings) 🔵 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at $167.52 Current forward P/E: 20.29 Peak forward P/E: 62–65 Decline from peak: -67.3% 🔴 $Microsoft(MSFT)$ at $356.77 Current forward P/E: 18.91 Peak forward P/E: 35–38 Decline from peak: -46.0% 🍎 $Apple(AAPL)$ at $248.80 Current forward P/E: 29.25 Peak forward P/E: 30–35 Decline from peak: -16% 🟣 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at $361.83 Current forward P/E: 179.04 Peak forward P/E: 200–400 Decline from peak: -10.5% 🟢 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ at $525.72 Current forward P/E: 17.64 Peak forward P/E: 30
$SPY Breakdown Map: $620 First, $600 If Panic Hits
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is broke below key trend + 200SMA (last week) Only 2 more demand zones to test if we break under $630: 1. $620–$625 Stronger demand zone below, aligns with prior breakout + trend support. If lost above, this becomes key level institutions defend Probability: 55% (depends on broader market / macro pressure) $600–$605 2. Major psychological + structural level Last line before deeper correction, high liquidity zone Probability: 40% (only if panic / escalation continues) Why SPY will eventually break all-time highs again: 1. Earnings growth continues top companies still printing strong cash flow 2. AI + productivity boom driving long-term multiple expansion 3. Liquidity always returns Fed cycles eventually shift back t
3 END OF WAR trades to focus on (explained) $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ lost its most important line in the sand the 200SMA at $660 on Thursday. That changes everything. The last time SPY dropped under 200SMA was 1 year ago on March 10, 2025 and it dropped from $580 to $480. For months, that trendline acted as silent support… now it’s resistance. Every bounce into it is likely to be sold until the US and IRAN war is over. Here's the update on the war: 1. Backdoor Outreach — No Formal Talks Messages relayed through intermediaries between Washington and Tehran. Goal is a full conflict resolution deal not just a ceasefire. No negotiations confirmed by either side. 2. Trump Pauses Power Grid Strikes Trump announced a 5-day pause on Iran power g
$NVDA Under 200SMA, Bounce First, Risk Still Below
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is holding structure below 200SMA at $178.60Some weakness now 2 major demand zones to watch closely:1. $165–$171Primary demand zone from recent consolidation baseMultiple touches, strong buyers defended, key area for short-term bounce.Probability: 75% (high chance of reaction / chop here)2. $148–$152Major demand zone before explosive breakout higherLast accumulation zone before trend expansion toward all-time highs.Probability: 50% (if broader market continues selling)Why NVDA will eventually break all-time highs again:AI demand continues to accelerate globally across every industry.NVDA dominates chips, pricing power, and has no real competition.Strong earnings growth and margins will keep attracting institutions.Your Mindset:Patie
$GOOG At Inflection Point, $291 Holds or Slide to $270s
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ is losing short-term momentum and testing key structure now have 3 major demand zones to watch: 1. $291–$296 Immediate demand zone from recent consolidation range. Tight range support, buyers stepped in multiple times here. Probability: 80% (likely initial bounce / reaction zone) 2. $271–$276 Strong demand zone before breakout continuation higher. Previous resistance turned support, key area institutions accumulated. Probability: 40% (if $291 breaks with momentum) 3. $255–$259 Major demand + 200MA trend support confluence Long-term trendline and moving average support align here strongly. Probability: 10% (requires broader market weakness / fear) Why GOOG will eventually break all-time highs again: Dominates search, ads, and AI in
$Apple(AAPL)$ held right into its 200SMA level ($247) now we have 4 major demand zones to watch: 1. $245–$247 Immediate demand from recent consolidation base Tight range support, buyers consistently stepped in at this level. Probability: 80% (likely bounce and big buyers stepping in) 2. $240 Minor support just below range, quick flush level Weak hands get shaken out before stronger buyers step in. Probability: 50% (quick wick and reclaim possible) 3. $234 Strong demand zone from prior breakout structure Previous resistance turned support, key institutional accumulation zone. Probability: 30% (if selling pressure continues lower) 4. $225 Major demand + 200MA trend support confluence Long-term support aligning with trend, high-probability reversal a