Michael Esther

    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-26 19:40

      $SPY Could Drop 2–3% if the Fed Turns More Hawkish

      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will crash 2-3% on Wednesday's FOMC if this happens: Everyone knows we're staying at 3.50% to 3.75%, so I'm not trading the decision. What I'm watching is what Warsh says at 2:30, and here's the detail most people miss: PCE doesn't drop until Thursday morning. He has to stand up there and talk about inflation without having seen the number. So what does he actually have in front of him? Core still sticky above 3%. Jobless claims at 187K, the lowest since 1969. Oil back above $100. Nothing in that stack gives him a single reason to sound soft, and a Fed chair who can't sound soft usually ends up sounding hawkish by default. Now here's the part I think people have completely backwards. The bear case isn't "no cut in
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      $SPY Could Drop 2–3% if the Fed Turns More Hawkish
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-26 19:37

      The Close Is the Verdict, Not the Wick

      I STOLE THIS SECRET FROM A MILLIONAIRE TRADER IN 2021: Everyone watches where price goes. Almost nobody watches where price closes. That's the whole edge. A candle's wick is the argument. The close is the verdict. Look at the chart Same shooting star. Same setup. Two completely different outcomes and the only difference is where the next candle finished. Left side (valid): the confirmation candle closes in the bottom 1/3 of the shooting star's range. Sellers didn't just show up, they took the whole thing back. Buyers who bought that spike are now underwater. That's a real handoff of control. Right side (invalid): the confirmation candle closes in the middle 1/3. Sellers pushed, buyers absorbed it, price stalled. Nobody's trapped. That's not a reversal, that's a pause and shorts who entered
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      The Close Is the Verdict, Not the Wick
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-24

      Could $INTC Really Reach $300 in a Year?

      $Intel(INTC)$ spiking to $115, $140 then $300 exactly 1 year from now. Here's how: Intel just posted its strongest revenue growth in 15 years, up 25% to $16.1B But the number that matters: gross margin ripped to 40.4%, up 13 points YoY. Operating income swung from a $3.2B loss to a $1.8B profit. The core business makes money again. Data Center + AI? Up 59%, the exact segment everyone wrote off against $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ And 18A is real: Panther Lake is now in high volume production on Intel's own leading edge node. The roadmap is landing on time. They even guided next quarter to GAAP profitability. That $11B "loss" everyone's panicking about is a non cash mark on the government stake, not the business. Undern
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      Could $INTC Really Reach $300 in a Year?
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      $NOW Down 66%, But the Business Isn't Broken

      CEO $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ says this stock is undervalued. It's down 66% and ON SALE: $ServiceNow(NOW)$ reports tonight after the close and it might be the most mispriced company right now. Down about 66% from its all time high near $240 while the business still compounds. Why I think it runs back toward the highs: This was multiple compression, not a broken business. Still growing ~22% year over year at a forward multiple cut in half. Rerating waiting to happen. AI is the catalyst nobody is pricing. Now Assist and AI Control Tower are turning into real ACV, new CRM bookings up 5x year over year. Four straight beats, sentiment washed out, analysts still buy rated with targets well above spot. A clean beat and rais
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      $NOW Down 66%, But the Business Isn't Broken
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      The AI Trade Is Reawakening, But This Rally Is About More Than Just One Stock.

      The AI sector staged a broad rebound this week, with capital flowing back across multiple parts of the AI ecosystem rather than concentrating in a handful of names. Some of the week's biggest gainers included: 🟢 $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ +27% 🟢 $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ +18% 🟢 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ +17% 🟢 $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ +17% 🟢 $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ +16% 🟢 $SK hynix(SKHY)$ +14% 🟢 $Micron Technology(MU)$ +13% 🟢 $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ +13% 🟢
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      The AI Trade Is Reawakening, But This Rally Is About More Than Just One Stock.
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      $GOOG Cloud Is Booming, Cash Flow Is Paying the Price

      For 1st time ever, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reported negative cash flow. It can easily crash 10% in right now. But, here's why its actually bullish: In 1-2 years $GOOG should be at $600+ and here's why: 1. Revenue: $119.8B, up 24% — BULLISH The first thing that jumps out at me is that this is Alphabet's 12th straight quarter of double digit growth, and it's accelerating, not fading. A company this size growing 24% shouldn't be normal, but here we are. US revenue alone ripped 32%. That's my green light right at the top. 2. Google Cloud: +82% to $24.8B — BULLISH This is the number I care about most, and it's the headline everyone will lead with. Cloud didn't just grow, it accelerated into the 80s on enterprise AI demand. When I'm sizing up whether Google is
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      $GOOG Cloud Is Booming, Cash Flow Is Paying the Price
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      $TSLA Demand Is Booming. So Why Is Free Cash Flow Negative?

      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ #1 EV car in the world, but this problem will destroy it soon: I actually like $TSLA earnings a lot here: Record Q2 deliveries: 480,126, up 25% Demand roared back. After a soft Q1 of 358k, Tesla put up its best ever second quarter for deliveries with record volume in a long list of new markets. This kills the "demand is falling apart" narrative cold. Until this breaks, the demand bears are wrong. But, they are spending a lot on capex and investments for future growth CapEx exploded to $5.8B, up 142% Here's the direct cause of that negative FCF. Tesla is spending like never before on AI compute, factories, lithium and semiconductors. I read this two ways at once, bullish if you believe the buildout pays off in robotaxi and Opti
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      $TSLA Demand Is Booming. So Why Is Free Cash Flow Negative?
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-22

      TOP 5 Gamma Squeeze ideas for July 20-24

      1. $Intel(INTC)$ — Thu Jul 23, after close ⚡ (most genuine squeeze setup) TRIGGER: Q2 print Terafab/foundry roadmap, the $Alphabet(GOOG)$ chip deal, and whether Q1's margin recovery holds into H2. PRE-SQUEEZE SIGNAL: Put premiums bid up hard after a ~13% one-week drop in the semi selloff. On a beat, watch forced put-side unwind + call chase, with OI clustering at strikes just above spot. FUEL: ~128M shares short, beta 2.19, heavy retail options flow. But it's very liquid (days-to-cover <1.5), so this is a short-covering relief rally / gamma pop, not a thin-float classic squeeze. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ — Wed Jul 22, after close TRIGGER: Q2 margins + robotaxi/C
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      TOP 5 Gamma Squeeze ideas for July 20-24
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-21

      $SPY Rejected at $747 Again: Bears Eye a Breakdown Below $740

      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ gets rejected at $747 2nd time so far and closes below both 20SMA and 50SMA. This is extremly bearish now. Here's what will happen next: If SPY breaks below $740: 1. closes below it 2. volume starts to pour in (like a lot of selling going on) 3. VIX spikes through 20 again towards 30 4. war continues on until end of July 5. July FOMC is hawkish 6. earnings is strong but tech gets sold out. then these 3 levels will be in play: 730-731 720-722 714-717
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      $SPY Rejected at $747 Again: Bears Eye a Breakdown Below $740
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-20

      $SPY Breaks Support, Here Are the Next Key Buy Levels

      Over the weekend, 2 US soldiers were killed in an Iranian strike. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is set up for a hard bleed on Monday. Key buy areas ⬇️ Key buy areas 👇 $741.05 — first shelf + MA confluence, buyers defend here but this level is now resistance on Monday. $728.76 — old breakout + gap-fill demand pocket (50%) $723.79 — swing pivot into rising long MA (25%) $716.82 — deep accumulation base, washout-only bid (10%) Note $SPY brokedown on Friday and now trades uner 20SMA and 50SMA too and got rejected again at $748 on Friday. Seriously week chart forming now on $SPY.
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      $SPY Breaks Support, Here Are the Next Key Buy Levels
     
     
     
     

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