Michael Esther

    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·09:50

      SPY/Global Markets – PCE Pre-Impact Setup

      GLOBAL MARKETS JUST FIRED A WARNING SHOT BEFORE PCE.This morning at 10:00am EST will change everything. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and European futures rose as traders positioned ahead of the most important inflation print of 2025 PCE and FEDs expected rate cut on Dec 10.The numbers are already shifting:SPY and European markets up 0.2%Asian markets erased a 0.7% drop to secure a second week of gains.Confidence is returning not from tech euphoria, but from rising expectations of a 25 bps Fed cut.Bitcoin holds $92,000 for now.Copper just hit a new high.Silver flipped from red to green.But the real story is in the labor market.Treasury yields settled after Thursday’s selloff, driven by data showing the job market is not cracking it’s tightenin
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      SPY/Global Markets – PCE Pre-Impact Setup
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·09:49

      US Labor Market – AI-Driven Tightness

      US labor market is tightening in a way that should unsettle everyone. Jobless claims just fell to a 3-year low, while the unemployment rate has hovered under 4% for 23 straight months the longest streak since the 1960s. Productivity, meanwhile, surged 4.7% last quarter, the fastest pace in two decades.But here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud:AI is doing the heavy lifting and it’s replacing more than it’s hiring.Corporate surveys show 37% of firms have already automated tasks previously done by employees. Tech companies report efficiency gains of 15–30% after cutting staff. The average US worker now outputs the equivalent of 1.4 workers from 2019.This isn’t a healthy labor market.It’s a labor market being hollowed out in real timemade “stronger” because machines don’t quit, don’t sl
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      US Labor Market – AI-Driven Tightness
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·12-05 09:14

      SPY Eyes 690 as Global Bonds Reprice

      THIS IS BAD: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ just went GREEN ahead of the most important payrolls print in 2025.As long as it can hold above 684 and 680 this week it should break 690 within 9 days. This chart confirms it (make sure to study it).Stocks in Asia and Europe surged overnight.US futures stayed firmly green.Traders are now betting that a Fed rate cut could ignite a worldwide rally into year-end so a massive explosion is coming.Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.3%, with autos and industrials leading.Asian markets hit their highest levels in two weeks, powered by Japanese heavyweights.SPY is set for an eighth gain in 9 sessions.But here’s the part nobody is highlighting.Global bonds slumped again.Japanese yields are now driving the entire world’s
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      SPY Eyes 690 as Global Bonds Reprice
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·12-04 11:47

      The Market Whisper: Signals Point to a Reshaped Economy by Mid-2026

      The labour market is no longer strong and 6 months from now it will be worse.Job openings have fallen over 30% from last year. Layoff announcements are up 42%.Behind the headlines, pressure is building everywhere:US foreclosures have risen 9 straight quarters, with filings up 34% YoY.Rents are at records over 50% of tenants now spend more than a third of their income just to stay housed.Homelessness surged 12% this year, the largest jump on record.The market is whispering what the data will shout in six months.AI is accelerating the shift.Nearly 20–25% of task-based jobs are expected to be automated or restructured by mid-2026.Back-office roles, customer support, logistics, and entry-level analysis are already being rebuilt around models not manpower.This isn’t a slowdown.It’s a reshaping.
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      The Market Whisper: Signals Point to a Reshaped Economy by Mid-2026
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·12-04 11:46

      SPY Rebound: Targeting $690 as Payroll Data Looms

      Markets aren't paying attention to US payroll (labor market data) $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will need to break this $684 level to climb higher towards $690 (it should hit within 10 days) Key level of support is at $678-$680 (check chart to confirm)The day the market revealed its direction without saying a word.While headlines focused elsewhere, SPY climbed for a second straight session (this is why Dec 15 $690 is a good swing play)SPY rose 0.2%, extending the cautious rebound from November’s pullback.Treasuries firmed. The Dollar strengthened.Bitcoin surged above $93,000, hitting a two-week high after shedding more than $1 trillion in value during the recent downturn.The tape moved before the narrative caught up.All of it is happening ahead
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      SPY Rebound: Targeting $690 as Payroll Data Looms
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·12-02

      SPY - December Opens With Cross-Asset Stress Shock

      BREAKING: Dec opens with $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down almost 1%A single session revealing how fragile the market really is.SPY key levels of support are at $678 and $675. If we fail that there big demand zone from $670-$672.50 (see chart below).The day the “soft-landing” dream met its first real test.While traders positioned for a calm December, Bitcoin collapsed below $87,000, triggering a broad crypto-equity spillover.SPY futures slipped 0.5%. MAG7 all opened red. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 1.1% in pre-market alone.The market moved before the bell even rang.Japan fired the second shot.The 2-year JGB yield surged to its highest level since 2008, after Governor Ueda delivered the strongest
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      SPY - December Opens With Cross-Asset Stress Shock
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·11-30

      10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+

      10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+ (possibly 710+)1. 25–50 bp cut on Dec 10 (releasing dot plot)→ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 2. Decrease in November inflation (CPI) report→ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Visa(V)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 3. BITCOIN rally back towards $100,000+ and $120,000+→
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      10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·11-28

      Is SPY About to Repeat Its Biggest Rally Since 1933?

      8 months ago, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ripped $481 to $689 thats 43% return. This only happened once since 1933.The exact set-up happens again in 3 days.DON'T MISS IT and here's how to play it Here's the set-up. Back in April 2025, SPY dropped below 20SMA and 50SMA then exploded with a massive catalyst.Its happening again and the catalyst is Dec 10 FOMC when JPOW will cut rates. SPY is now ABOVE 20SMA and 50SMA again. I like to add SPY calls for a scalp or swing as soon as it dips under $678 or lower: For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost
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      Is SPY About to Repeat Its Biggest Rally Since 1933?
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·11-20

      Here's why SPY will create an explosion

      4 massive catalyst that will send $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ towards $700+ or back under $650.Here's why this will create an explosion 🧵 Here's the 4 catalyst this week:1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings today at 4pm EST (expected to beat and raise guidance)2. OPEX and Volatile products are expire this week3. THURS at 8:30am (labour market data for Sept and Oct)4. FOMC meeting minutes today at 2pm EST. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ likely to settle back under 16. And SPY is forming support above $655 so this area will have to hold this week.SPY wants to climb back above 50SMA quickly at 669. Of course it doesnt have to but the season winds of NOVEMBER should kick in
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      Here's why SPY will create an explosion
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·11-19

      SPY dropped under 50SMA at $670

      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ dropped under 50SMA at $670. The last time it dropped under 50SMA was on Feb 24 from $600. Then it crashed all the way to $480 before it bounced back towards $680.SPY doesn't like staying below 50SMA too long. THe market tends to stay ABOVE this green line: Today at rock bottom of the market, I called out calls and bullputsBanked $15k today on my daily breadsometimes you don’t have to guess where the market will go, but you just have to guess where the market WONT to make money follow my Instagram to learn my tip on credit spreads, but I trade these with my community every single day! For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, u
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      SPY dropped under 50SMA at $670
     
     
     
     

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