Michael Esther

    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·06:09

      $SPY: A Hawkish Warsh Could Trigger a 2–3% Pullback

      Kevin Warsh is the richest FED CHAIR with over $100,000,000+ in assets. The truth is, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ could easily crash 2-3% due to the Us-Iran war, inflation and oil prices being so high. Don't miss this, everyone knows the rate will be held the same, so basically priced in at 3.50–3.75%, fifth straight. That's not the trade. The trade is 2:30pm. Remember, Warsh isn't Powell. He killed forward guidance. He didn't submit a dot in June first chair to sit out the dot plot since 2012. He gutted the statement down to almost nothing. Only his words will move the market now. Let's be clear, June CPI printed 3.5% headline, 2.6% core. Beautiful numbers. But that was a gift from a ceasefire that no longer exists. Oil's ripped ~30%+ this m
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      $SPY: A Hawkish Warsh Could Trigger a 2–3% Pullback
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·06:07

      5 AI Infrastructure Earnings You Can't Afford to Miss

      MON 7/27 — 5 AI infrastructure earnings plays, all after the close Every one of these sold off hard into Friday's close: 1. $Amkor Technology(AMKR)$ ~$65 | expected move ±15% Advanced packaging bottleneck. Their capacity gates how many accelerators actually ship. 2. $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ $27.19 | expected move ±13% Neocloud financing test. Lease signings and delivery timelines prove the buildout is real. 3. $Celestica(CLS)$ $305.28 | expected move ~±11% Purest hyperscaler capex read. Their guide leaks what Big Tech actually ordered. 4. $Rambus(RMBS)$ $96.01 | expected move ±13% Memory interface chips signal the DDR
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      5 AI Infrastructure Earnings You Can't Afford to Miss
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·06:05

      These 3 Indicators Tell You Whether Risk-On Is Real

      You can use these 3 market indicators to figure out if $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ believes Donald Trumps lies or not: 1. Brent crude oil prices 2. 10 year treasury yields 3. US dollar Here's how to read each one: 1/ BRENT CRUDE The cleanest tell. Iran risk lives in oil first. Believes it → Brent sells off. The war premium bleeds out and traders start pricing Iranian barrels coming back onto the market. Doesn't believe it → Brent holds bid. ~20% of the world's seaborne oil moves through Hormuz. Nobody sells that risk on a headline. 2/ 10 YEAR YIELDS This one is two-sided, and that's where people get it wrong. Yields can RISE on peace (safe haven bid unwinds, growth outlook improves) or FALL on peace (lower oil = lower inflation). So don't tra
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      These 3 Indicators Tell You Whether Risk-On Is Real
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·06:02

      Micron Can't Build AI Memory Without This Company

      Everyone is watching $Micron Technology(MU)$ after earnings. But there's another company quietly benefiting from the AI memory boom. $Rambus(RMBS)$ . Rambus doesn't manufacture DRAM chips. Instead, it licenses critical memory technologies to leading DRAM makers—including Micron—and supplies memory interface chips used in DDR5 modules. As AI servers drive demand for higher-bandwidth memory, Rambus sits in a unique position, collecting royalties while expanding its product business. $RMBS Q2 FY2026 Earnings Highlights Strong Beat Across the Board Revenue: $207.4M vs. $198.0M expected (+20% YoY) Adjusted EPS: $0.77 vs. $0.72 expected (+24% YoY) Product Revenue: $99.2M (+22% YoY, +13% QoQ) Q3 Guidance Revenue:
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      Micron Can't Build AI Memory Without This Company
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-26 19:40

      $SPY Could Drop 2–3% if the Fed Turns More Hawkish

      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will crash 2-3% on Wednesday's FOMC if this happens: Everyone knows we're staying at 3.50% to 3.75%, so I'm not trading the decision. What I'm watching is what Warsh says at 2:30, and here's the detail most people miss: PCE doesn't drop until Thursday morning. He has to stand up there and talk about inflation without having seen the number. So what does he actually have in front of him? Core still sticky above 3%. Jobless claims at 187K, the lowest since 1969. Oil back above $100. Nothing in that stack gives him a single reason to sound soft, and a Fed chair who can't sound soft usually ends up sounding hawkish by default. Now here's the part I think people have completely backwards. The bear case isn't "no cut in
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      $SPY Could Drop 2–3% if the Fed Turns More Hawkish
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-26 19:37

      The Close Is the Verdict, Not the Wick

      I STOLE THIS SECRET FROM A MILLIONAIRE TRADER IN 2021: Everyone watches where price goes. Almost nobody watches where price closes. That's the whole edge. A candle's wick is the argument. The close is the verdict. Look at the chart Same shooting star. Same setup. Two completely different outcomes and the only difference is where the next candle finished. Left side (valid): the confirmation candle closes in the bottom 1/3 of the shooting star's range. Sellers didn't just show up, they took the whole thing back. Buyers who bought that spike are now underwater. That's a real handoff of control. Right side (invalid): the confirmation candle closes in the middle 1/3. Sellers pushed, buyers absorbed it, price stalled. Nobody's trapped. That's not a reversal, that's a pause and shorts who entered
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      The Close Is the Verdict, Not the Wick
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-24

      Could $INTC Really Reach $300 in a Year?

      $Intel(INTC)$ spiking to $115, $140 then $300 exactly 1 year from now. Here's how: Intel just posted its strongest revenue growth in 15 years, up 25% to $16.1B But the number that matters: gross margin ripped to 40.4%, up 13 points YoY. Operating income swung from a $3.2B loss to a $1.8B profit. The core business makes money again. Data Center + AI? Up 59%, the exact segment everyone wrote off against $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ And 18A is real: Panther Lake is now in high volume production on Intel's own leading edge node. The roadmap is landing on time. They even guided next quarter to GAAP profitability. That $11B "loss" everyone's panicking about is a non cash mark on the government stake, not the business. Undern
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      Could $INTC Really Reach $300 in a Year?
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      $NOW Down 66%, But the Business Isn't Broken

      CEO $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ says this stock is undervalued. It's down 66% and ON SALE: $ServiceNow(NOW)$ reports tonight after the close and it might be the most mispriced company right now. Down about 66% from its all time high near $240 while the business still compounds. Why I think it runs back toward the highs: This was multiple compression, not a broken business. Still growing ~22% year over year at a forward multiple cut in half. Rerating waiting to happen. AI is the catalyst nobody is pricing. Now Assist and AI Control Tower are turning into real ACV, new CRM bookings up 5x year over year. Four straight beats, sentiment washed out, analysts still buy rated with targets well above spot. A clean beat and rais
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      $NOW Down 66%, But the Business Isn't Broken
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      The AI Trade Is Reawakening, But This Rally Is About More Than Just One Stock.

      The AI sector staged a broad rebound this week, with capital flowing back across multiple parts of the AI ecosystem rather than concentrating in a handful of names. Some of the week's biggest gainers included: 🟢 $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ +27% 🟢 $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ +18% 🟢 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ +17% 🟢 $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ +17% 🟢 $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ +16% 🟢 $SK hynix(SKHY)$ +14% 🟢 $Micron Technology(MU)$ +13% 🟢 $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ +13% 🟢
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      The AI Trade Is Reawakening, But This Rally Is About More Than Just One Stock.
    • Michael EstherMichael Esther
      ·07-23

      $GOOG Cloud Is Booming, Cash Flow Is Paying the Price

      For 1st time ever, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reported negative cash flow. It can easily crash 10% in right now. But, here's why its actually bullish: In 1-2 years $GOOG should be at $600+ and here's why: 1. Revenue: $119.8B, up 24% — BULLISH The first thing that jumps out at me is that this is Alphabet's 12th straight quarter of double digit growth, and it's accelerating, not fading. A company this size growing 24% shouldn't be normal, but here we are. US revenue alone ripped 32%. That's my green light right at the top. 2. Google Cloud: +82% to $24.8B — BULLISH This is the number I care about most, and it's the headline everyone will lead with. Cloud didn't just grow, it accelerated into the 80s on enterprise AI demand. When I'm sizing up whether Google is
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      $GOOG Cloud Is Booming, Cash Flow Is Paying the Price
     
     
     
     

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