PeterDiCarlo

Quant Trader 💻 NEVER FINANCIAL ADVICE

    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·11 minutes ago

      QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

      Markets are approaching a key macro test with inflation data ahead. QQQ is nearing a potential rejection zone with downside risk building, SPY is approaching a critical resistance band, while UAMY remains bullish even as profits are partially locked in after a strong run. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing into the Daily Bias, which is bearish right now. In a downtrend, that level often acts as resistance. I’m prepared for about 5% downside over the next 30 days. Hoping this doesn’t happen, but if $QQQ is going t
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      QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-10 15:53

      $QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

      A sharp rally triggered by geopolitical headlines has lifted equities, but underlying signals remain mixed. While the system stays cautious on Invesco QQQ Trust and watches a key turning point for Tesla Inc., bullish cycles continue to hold in CAVA Group Inc. and IREN Ltd. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Market just ripped +1.5% in 30 minutes on “war might end soon” headlines. My system is still bearish on $QQQ and cautious on $SPY. 🔻 I’m long 63 stocks. If I’m right, my fund gets hurt short term. I walk through the data, BX Trend, and why this bounce may be exit liquidity ⬇️ 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA is still in a bull cycle… but we’re right on the edge. If price doesn’t bounce soon, the Monthly BX will close re
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      $QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-10 15:50

      $NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

      Technical signals are diverging across key tech and growth names. While NVIDIA faces correction risk after a bearish monthly signal, bullish setups continue to build in POET Technologies Inc, Crocs Inc., and Advanced Micro Devices as momentum and trend indicators remain supportive. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Closed out all my $NVDA to start March. Setup is not pretty. Monthly BX closed red, signaling a likely correction, and I still expect a 10–15% move down into the Monthly Fair Value Range. You’re allowed to be wrong in your conviction. You are not allowed to bag hold. 2. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX is starting to show early signs of a new bull cycle. Our THT Short Term strategy just printed a buy signal on this name. Hi
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      $NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-10 15:49

      $META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

      Several major stocks are diverging in trend direction as technical cycles reset. While Meta Platforms Inc. and Netflix Inc. remain trapped in bearish structures with rallies likely to fade, CAVA Group Inc. is flashing signals of a potential new bull cycle. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ META trap was set and we called it. Our Monthly BX model has been bearish since November while price compressed. Earnings spike looked strong, but it did not change the rules, so we stayed flat. Base case: further downside toward $550 over the next 4–6 weeks. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ When a name is in a bear cycle, most bounces are traps. $NFLX Our Monthly BX system flipped this to sell in October 2025 after a long bull run. I
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      $META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-07

      Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap

      Warning signals are emerging across several major tech names. $QQQ is showing macro-timeframe strength deterioration that historically precedes a 5–12% correction, $ADBE is seeing early buying but still lacks a confirmed long-term bottom, and $PLTR’s latest rally is raising concerns of a potential bull trap rather than a sustainable breakout. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Price compression + a red Monthly BX is not strength. It means strength is being removed on the macro timeframe. Our long term model removed its bullish outlook last month. I hope I’m wrong. But historically this setup leads to a 5% to 12% correction 82% of the time. 2. $Adobe(ADBE)$ I’ve been stalking an $ADBE bottom for a year. We’re seeing sho
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      Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-06

      NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support

      Market focus remains on selective entries: NVDA sidelined amid potential correction, NFLX shows short-term weakness, while DUOL and HIMS await confirmed bull cycles. Meanwhile, AMR presents a historical bounce opportunity at key support. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVDA flat on the day. As I said last week, I’ve closed all fund positions and shelved the bullish thesis for now. When the Monthly BX is red, it usually signals either compression or a correction. Neither is an environment I want to trade in. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ This $NFLX bounce looks like a trap. Big 2-week move up, but THT Monthly BX is still dark red and the short-term trend is down. That combo often leads to another selloff. I’ll wait for our long tr
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      NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-05

      Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support

      Markets show cautious tone: $TSLA remains supported and bullish, $MSTR may see a short-term rebound toward $190–$200, while $SPY tests critical support. Overall, mixed signals suggest careful positioning and close monitoring of trend shifts. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA compressing again on support. Still bullish. ✅ 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ My system hasn’t been bullish on $MSTR since the breakdown in November. Since then, price has dumped and the Monthly BX keeps printing red. We likely put in a short term bottom and could see a push into the 190–200 area before rejection. I will NOT go long until my triggers are met. 3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY still doi
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      Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-04

      $SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management

      Key names are at critical junctures. $SPY teeters on a daily head-and-shoulders, $MU looks expensive in the short term, $JD highlights the importance of cutting losses, and $HOOD remains in a bearish cycle despite potential relief rallies. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Liquidity is hanging on for dear life. And $SPY is building a daily head and shoulders. If that neckline breaks, things could get ugly fast. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think now is the time to buy $MU. Yes, trend is bullish and buyers are still in control. But short term, you’re paying an extreme premium. My ideal play is a 20% pullback, then looking to buy the dip. 3. $
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      $SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-04

      $HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone

      Several major names are at pivotal levels. $HOOD and $NOW remain in bearish cycles despite bounce potential, $MSFT is reacting off major long-term support, and $RIVN continues compressing inside a developing buy range. 1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD is still in a Bear Cycle in my system. Monthly BX is dark red, so trend stays down, but a relief rally into the $60 area is possible. Monthly Bias is often a strong support zone, but I’m still on the sidelines. I only buy when there is real pressure in the market, not on “discount” alone. 2. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ NOW is building a solid base and a move back toward $140–$150 is possible. I am not buying yet ❌ My system is still bearish: Monthly BX is dark red and sellers
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      $HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone
    • PeterDiCarloPeterDiCarlo
      ·03-04

      $AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges

      Mixed signals across the board. $PLUG is pushing higher against market weakness, while $AAPL and $AMD sit at critical support with Monthly BX still green. Meanwhile, $PLTR’s bounce may be short-lived as broader signals remain bearish. 1. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ In a sea of red, $PLUG is pushing up stream 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL doing everything it can to stay bullish. Trend is still green and the Monthly BX is holding green. Both point to a potential bounce. If this support gives way and MBX flips, I am looking for a 10% to 12% correction. 3. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD clinging to support with the Monthly BX still green. We’re at a critical make-or-break level. Fo
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      $AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges
       
       
       
       

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