By Lawrence G. McMillan The market continues to consolidate in the triangle formation that we had pointed out previously. It is currently trying to break out on the upside. The pink lines on the chart in Figure 1 define the triangle. In a broad sense, a breakout above 7500 would be positive, or a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. The equity-only put-call ratios are still rising (see Figures 2 and 3). That is, even though $SPX has rallied over the past few days, traders are still buying puts as hedges, if not necessarily for pure speculation. In either case, these ratios will remain on their sell signals for the stock market until they roll over and begin to decline. A more positive note has been the improvement in breadth recently . The NYSE-based breadth oscillator has
By Lawrence G. McMillan There has been a considerable amount of intraday volatility, but $SPX has not changed much in net closing price. There is major resistance at the all-time highs, 7600-7620. There is strong support in the 7250-7275 area. Those are marked with horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1. Also marked on that chart in Figure 1 is a triangle formation (pink lines) that show lower highs and higher lows. This formation is typically a precursor to a strong breakout, as long as it makes its move fairly soon. If the trading range action persists beyond the point of the triangle, then the process is voided. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to climb, as there has been steady put buying even on days when the market has risen. As a result, these ratios both remain on sell
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market bounced back from its brief correction in early June, but $SPX has not yet recovered to new all-time highs. As a result, the $SPX chart itself is in a neutral state right now bound by resistance at 7600 (the all-time highs) and support at 7257 (last week's lows), with further support in the 7050-7175 range from late April. There was a gap on the $SPX chart that was filled yesterday, so it is no longer relevant. Many of our indicators are taking on a more positive tone, but not the equity-only put-call ratios which continue to rise. That is a bearish signal for the stock market when these ratios are trending higher. It seems that traders are buyin
By Lawrence G. McMillan In all, the correction from the early June highs to the lows of this week was about 5%. That was enough to at least temporarily remove the "bullish" designation from the $SPX chart. The Index has now fallen below its 20-day moving average, and there is resistance in the 7500-7520 area. A rise back above that area might be enough to restore the bullish scenario, but for the now the index is in a short-term negative trend. There is support at this week's lows, 7237. Furthermore, there is a stronger support area in the 7050-7175 range, where $SPX traded in the latter half of April. Finally, there is major support at 7000, which had been resistance all during January and February. A decline below 7000 would be very negative for the chart and for stocks in general. Equit
$MVB.AU$ $CVB.AU$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has advanced on ten of the last eleven trading days. Needless to say, the Index chart has strong upward momentum. Media articles continue to focus on how overbought the market is, and how it’s certainly due for a correction. But “overbought does not mean sell.” Once again, we are reminded of John Maynard Keynes’ statement that the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. That currently applies mostly to short sellers, but could also be directed towards under-invested institutions and those who have sold some stocks prematurely to raise cas