So, $VIX is defying seasonality and remaining low; What now? (Preview)
$UVXY$ $VXX$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan As we’ve been commenting for a couple of months now, “everyone” is expecting a rise in $VIX. In classic stock market contrarian fashion, $VIX has steadfastly remained at low levels – countering the majority opinion and frustrating volatility bulls. That would include us, to some extent, although it is not surprising to me to see the market act in a way that causes the majority to be wrong. That was our point in the article we wrote in last week’s newsletter. So what do we do now? There is still potential for a $VIX increase and a market breakdown, although some cynics point out tha
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Stocks continue to slip after having made new all-time highs on August 14th. The 7600 support level for $SPX has now come under attack, and it was briefly violated yesterday. Today, however, the CPI number although "in line" was interpreted as a huge relief, and the market is rallying strongly. So support extends down to 7580 or so. The general support area is now 7580 7620. Overhead, there is a downtrend line on the $SPX chart (see Figure 1) that extends from the August 14th high through the last rally's high near 7750. For the bulls to reclaim control, $SPX needs to break out over 7770 or so. There is
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After making new all-time highs on August 14th, $SPX has struggled a bit. There is a very minor downtrend line on the chart right now, after a series of negative days accompanied in general by terrible breadth. That pullback seems to have culminated with a retest of the 7600-7620 support level this past Tuesday, September 1st. That support level is marked with a thick red horizontal line on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. If it gives way, a much more negative picture will emerge, but so far support has held. As for resistance, one can see (from the same chart), that there is a minor downtrend line in place
$NVDA$ $DECU$ $TVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Traders were a bit leery of some potentially volatile events this week, but so far they have not proven to be troublesome. The NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings were positive, and the stock rose. That was a relief to the market. Also, Fed Chair Warsh made the Keynote Address at the Jackson Hole Monetary conference this morning. The market's reaction is muted. There is still resistance at 7740 to overcome (blue horizontal line on the chart in Figure 1), but that is certainly doable. There is major support in the 7600-7640 area, which not only is the level of the previous all-time high, but is also where a gap exist
$GOTU$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Yesterday, I joined the team at tastylive for a conversation about the current market, some of the strategies I’m trading today, and how my approach to options has evolved over the years. We started with the broad market. I remain cautiously bullish, particularly as long as the S&P 500 holds above the 7,600 level. The subdued $VIX and positively sloped volatility term structures are also encouraging, although breadth and new highs versus new lows remain somewhat shaky. From there, we got into some of the strategies I’ve been using recently, including 0DTE index options, put credit spreads combined with upside calls, broken-wing butterflies, and rolling positions as the market moves. We also spent some time
INVST Acquires McMillan: Two Teams. One Standard. One Mission.
$SMP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan McMillan has joined INVST — and the research, advisories, data, and market analysis you rely on will continue. We recently announced an important new chapter in McMillan’s history: INVST has acquired McMillan. For our longtime subscribers, customers, and readers, we want to start with the most important point: McMillan isn’t going away. The research, market commentary, options expertise, advisories, data, indicators, and educational resources that McMillan subscribers have relied on for decades will continue. Larry McMillan and the McMillan team remain actively involved, and our commitment to disciplined, research-driven options analysis remains unchanged. Why INVST? McMillan has always approached the market
INVST Acquires McMillan: Two Teams. One Standard. One Mission.
$SMP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan We’re excited to announce that INVST has acquired McMillan, bringing together two firms built on a shared belief in disciplined investing, deep expertise, and putting clients first. Founded by Larry McMillan, McMillan has spent decades at the forefront of options strategy, investment research, and risk management. Larry’s Options as a Strategic Investment has sold more than 300,000 copies, and the McMillan team has built its reputation around a repeatable, rules-based approach to managing risk and opportunity. Now, that expertise becomes an integrated part of the INVST investment team. For INVST clients, this means greater access to sophisticated options and risk-management strategies, additional resources for ad