$VIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan As time drags on, $SPX continues to trade within the trading range that has lasted since late July. This is marked in figure 1 by the box on the upper right. The current box has support at 7580-7620, which has been tested several times and is being tested again today. There is some resistance at 7750-7760 (the highs of several recent trading days), with more substantial resistance at the all-time highs, 7820-7840. Let's look at the individual indicators. They are still mixed reflecting the trading range environment. Equity-only put-call ratios are both on sell signals. Countering the negativity of the put-call ratios is an improvement in breadth. Breadth was nicely positive on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan After a slightly worse-than-expected CPI reading this week, the market finally made a move with some gusto. $SPX fell about 1.1% the day after that, with the Dow ($DJX) doing much better, but tech indices faring far worse. So $SPX is back inside the previous trading range, and the attempted breakout in earlier October is now officially a false breakout (pink circle on the chart in Figure 1). There wasn't any follow-through to the CPI-related selling, though, so now $SPX is back in a dull, trading range environment. There is resistance at 7820-7840, with support at 7580-7620. Equity-only put-call ratios
Introducing the New Daily Strategist: Redesigned for Active Traders
By Lawrence G. McMillan We're excited to introduce the newly redesigned The Daily Strategist, McMillan Analysis Corp.'s premium options advisory service. We've streamlined the format to make it easier for subscribers to identify trading opportunities, follow our recommendations, and manage open positions. The new Daily Strategist organizes our proprietary research, market commentary, and trading recommendations into three distinct daily communications. What's New? 1. McMillan's Morning SignalsStart the trading day with a systematic overview of market conditions and potential trading opportunities identified by our proprietary indicators, including momentum signals, put-call ratios, volatility analysis, and more. 2. McMillan's Morning Market CommentaryLarry McMillan's daily interpretation o
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan Things seemed so promising on Tuesday, when $SPX traded at new all-time intraday and closing highs. But almost immediately after the market closed that day, selling set in. While it hasn't been heavy selling, it has pushed $SPX back down into the previous trading range. Essentially, the upside breakout wasn't a breakout at all, but merely a slight extension of the trading range. The net result is that there is still resistance at the all-time highs, 7820-7844. There is near-term support at 7720, then stronger support as shown by the red horizontal line in Figure 1, at 7580-7620. The market internals hav
Octobers in Mid-Term Election Years Are Surprisingly Strong (Preview)
By Lawrence G. McMillan We continue to see articles almost daily about the potential negatives in this market – especially in volatility. Yet all these are really doing is identifying overbought conditions. The market can continue to advance for a long time while it is overbought. That’s why Keynes’ statement remains true: the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. In this case, “irrational” is “going up too long” and solvency applies to short sellers. But you get the idea. A more novel thought might be this: “Has this extended trading range with worsening internals allowed the market to ‘correct’ without $SPX actually going down?” It has happened in the past (1994 comes to mind). In that vein, it is often the case that the sitting administration attempts to bolst
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ $DECP$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The stock market continues to be range-bound. $SPX is still solidly between support at 7580-7620 and resistance at 7780-7820. Those are the two red horizontal lines on the graph in Figure 1. Market internals continue to be poor, causing some of them to reach oversold status. Let's start with the equity-only put-call ratios (Figures 2 and 3). They remain split in their signals. The standard ratio is still slowly climbing, thus keeping its sell signal in place. The weighted ratio rolled over and began to decline a little over a week ago, so it is on a buy signal. Breadth has continued to be poor. Most day