By Lawrence G. McMillan This week, $SPX has tried to break out over the top of the triangle formation that has inhibited price movement since early June. Indicators have improved somewhat, so that is certainly a possibility. However, the next resistance level at 7600-7620 is the all-time highs, and there would need to be a clear breakout over that level in order to turn the $SPX chart to a fully "bullish" status. There is support at 7420 (tested briefly a couple of times in the past week), with strong support at 7300, near the bottom of the triangle. A move below 7300 would be quite negative, and would probably indicate a quick test of longer-term support in the 7050- 7100 area. Equity-only put-call ratios have been rising for over a month, and that is a bearish weight on the stock market.
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By Lawrence G. McMillan The market continues to consolidate in the triangle formation that we had pointed out previously. It is currently trying to break out on the upside. The pink lines on the chart in Figure 1 define the triangle. In a broad sense, a breakout above 7500 would be positive, or a breakdown below 7300 would be negative. The equity-only put-call ratios are still rising (see Figures 2 and 3). That is, even though $SPX has rallied over the past few days, traders are still buying puts as hedges, if not necessarily for pure speculation. In either case, these ratios will remain on their sell signals for the stock market until they roll over and begin to decline. A more positive note has been the improvement in breadth recently . The NYSE-based breadth oscillator has
By Lawrence G. McMillan There has been a considerable amount of intraday volatility, but $SPX has not changed much in net closing price. There is major resistance at the all-time highs, 7600-7620. There is strong support in the 7250-7275 area. Those are marked with horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1. Also marked on that chart in Figure 1 is a triangle formation (pink lines) that show lower highs and higher lows. This formation is typically a precursor to a strong breakout, as long as it makes its move fairly soon. If the trading range action persists beyond the point of the triangle, then the process is voided. Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to climb, as there has been steady put buying even on days when the market has risen. As a result, these ratios both remain on sell
$TVIX$ $UVIX$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The market bounced back from its brief correction in early June, but $SPX has not yet recovered to new all-time highs. As a result, the $SPX chart itself is in a neutral state right now bound by resistance at 7600 (the all-time highs) and support at 7257 (last week's lows), with further support in the 7050-7175 range from late April. There was a gap on the $SPX chart that was filled yesterday, so it is no longer relevant. Many of our indicators are taking on a more positive tone, but not the equity-only put-call ratios which continue to rise. That is a bearish signal for the stock market when these ratios are trending higher. It seems that traders are buyin