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  ·2021-07-16
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  Airline Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: With Increased Capacity, Is Spring Coming for Airline Stocks?
  虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。值得注意的是，原油
  Airline Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: With Increased Capacity, Is Spring Coming for Airline Stocks?
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First-quarter financial reports showed that the performance of the four major U.S. airlines was not very good. However, with the orderly rollout of vaccines and airlines increasing their capacity, the second-quarter performance may be better than the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that crude oil prices surged by 24% throughout the second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared to Q1 2021. But because crude oil prices were low in the second quarter of last year, the fuel costs of the other three airlines, except for Delta Air Lines, increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down their performance.</p><p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Earnings reports will be released before the US stock market opens on July 14.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The US stock market will release its earnings report after the market closes on July 20.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>Earnings reports will be released before the US stock market opens on July 22.</i></p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>First quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of all stocks was not ideal. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The performance of miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>American Airlines had mixed results, with revenue falling short of expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Even with such a performance, salary subsidies and the company's voluntary resignation and leave programs are also improving the airline's performance. For example, Southwest Airlines reported a net profit of RMB 116 million in the first quarter according to GAAP, resulting in an adjusted net loss of RMB 1.015 billion. The main influencing factor was the $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary bailout and the resignation and leave of employee team members.</p><p>For example, Delta Air Lines reported a net loss of $11.77 in the first quarter, which was adjusted to a net loss of $2.256 billion, the main factor being the recognition of $1.186 billion in government subsidies. Delta Air Lines expects the remaining $847 million in subsidies to be confirmed in Q2.</p><p><b>What factors deserve attention in the second quarter?</b></p><p><b>1. Airlines welcome increased capacity</b></p><p>With the expansion of vaccination coverage and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers have begun to increase their travel, aviation demand is gradually recovering, and the industry situation is improving.<b>One significant sign of improvement is the increase in airline capacity.</b></p><p>Southwest Airlines and American Airlines saw significant capacity increases. Among them,<b>Southwest airlines</b>The first-quarter report stated that Q2 capacity is expected to increase by 90% compared to last year, but has not yet recovered to 2019 levels.<b>It is approximately 15% lower than the same period in 2019.</b>And<b>American Airlines</b>Expected in Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.</b><i>(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Mileage, which is the main indicator for measuring airline capacity.)</i></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines' expected Q2 capacity</span></p><p>Delta Air Lines and United Continental Airlines have been slow to recover their capacity. Delta Air Lines expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines expects Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019.</b></p><p><b>Another sign of improvement is occupancy.</b>Southwest Airlines expects passenger revenue and load factor to also increase in Q2, with the year-on-year decline in passenger revenue expected to narrow to 40%-45% in April-May, compared to a previous forecast of a year-on-year decline of 45%-55%. The occupancy rate in April and May is expected to increase from 70%-75% to 75%-80%.</p><p><b>2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 performance.</b></p><p>Secondly, it is worth noting the impact of rising oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1 to closing on June 30), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How much impact will rising oil prices have on airlines? Here, we will take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.</p><p>Southwest Airlines' operating costs are 8 cents per seat per mile, of which fuel costs are 2.02 cents, accounting for approximately 25% of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected fuel costs to be between $1.85 and $1.95 in the second quarter, representing a quarter-on-quarter change of -1% to +4% compared to $1.87 in the first quarter, with little overall change.<i>(Note: Fuel costs are priced per gallon, the same below)</i></p><p>However, compared to the fuel cost of $1.33 in Q2 2020, it increased by 39%-47% year-on-year. In other words, fuel costs alone will likely increase the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared to Q2 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The situation is similar for United Continental Airlines and American Airlines.</b>Based on the above method, it can be calculated that in Q2 2021, the fuel costs of Continental Airlines will increase the company's operating costs by approximately 10.2%, while the figure for American Airlines will be 6.6%. The derivation steps are at the end of the article for your reference.</p><p>However,<b>Delta Air Lines is a special case; the company expects fuel costs to decline sharply year-on-year in Q2, and its overall second-quarter performance will not be significantly affected.</b></p><p>Delta Air Lines expects fuel costs in Q2 to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared to $1.91 in Q1, representing a month-on-month change of -3% to 2%, with little month-on-month fluctuation. However, Delta Airlines' fuel costs in Q2 decreased compared to Q2 2020. The impact of fuel costs in Q2 may not be significant. Coupled with the confirmation of the $847 million government subsidy mentioned earlier, the performance may exceed market expectations. However, the weak recovery of capacity is a hidden danger.<i>(Note: Fuel costs are adjusted prices)</i></p><p><b>How do some airlines view their Q2 performance?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Southwest Airlines expects its capacity in Q2 2021 to decrease by approximately 15% compared to the same period in 2019, and its revenue in April in Q2 to decrease by 40%-45% compared to the same period in 2019. Revenue in May decreased by 35%-40% compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li><b>Delta Airlines:</b>Delta Air Lines expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue was between $5.64 billion and $6.27 billion, compared to Q2 2019.</b>$12.54 billion,<b>The decline is approximately 50%-55%. Market pre-orders decreased by approximately 32% compared to the same period in 2019.</b></li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines expects Q2 2021<b>Transport capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019;</b>Revenue in Q2 2021 was approximately $9.12 billion, a decrease of about 20% compared to $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin is negative 20%.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>American Airlines expects that in Q2 2021<b>Transport capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;</b>expected<b>Q2 revenue was approximately US$7.176 billion, compared to Q2 2019.</b>$11.96 billion,<b>A decrease of approximately 40%</b>； Excluding net of special items<b>Pre-tax profit margins range from negative 27% to negative 30%.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Air Lines Q2 Earnings Guidance</span></p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view airline Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that Southwest Airlines will report revenue of $3.86 billion and an adjusted net loss of $260 million in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $0.38 per share.</li><li><b>Delta Airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that Delta Air Lines will report revenue of $6.34 billion and an adjusted net loss of $920 million in Q2 2021, with an adjusted loss per share of $1.44.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>Bloomberg projects that United Continental Airlines will report revenue of $5.25 billion and an adjusted net loss of $1.39 billion in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $4.26 per share.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that American Airlines will report revenue of $7.17 billion and an adjusted net loss of $1.54 billion in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $2.40 per share.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>United Continental</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>American Airlines</span></p><p><b>Appendix 1: First-quarter results breakdown of the four major U.S. airlines</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines' revenue was $2.052 billion, compared to market expectations of $2.057 billion and $4.234 billion in the same period last year; The company reported a net profit of $116 million in Q1 2021, compared to market expectations of a net loss of $734 million and a net loss of $94 million in the same period last year. In Q1 2021, earnings per share were $0.19, compared to market expectations of a loss of $1.20 and a loss of $0.18 in the same period last year.</li><li><b>Delta Air Lines: Q1 results fell short of expectations.</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Delta Airlines' revenue was $4.15 billion, a 52% year-over-year decrease, and miss the market expectation' revenue was $3.983 billion, compared to $8.592 billion in the same period last year. The company reported a net loss of $1.177 billion in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $534 million in the same period last year; The company reported an adjusted net loss of $2.256 billion in the first quarter, compared to $326 million in the same period last year; The company reported an adjusted loss of $3.55 per share for the first quarter, compared to market expectations of a loss of $3.17 per share.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines' revenue and GAAP earnings per share fell short of expectations, while non-GAAP earnings per share exceeded market expectations. Revenue in Q1 2021 was $3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% compared to $7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The company reported a net loss of $1.357 billion, a 20.4% decrease year-over-year compared to the $1.704 billion loss in Q2 2020. The company reported a loss of $4.29 per share, compared to a loss of $6.86 per share in Q2 2020, a 37.5% decrease year-over-year.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was $4.008 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% compared to $8.515 billion in Q1 2020; The company reported a net loss of $1.25 billion, a 44.2% decrease year-over-year compared to the $2.241 billion loss in Q1 2020. The company reported a loss of $1.97 per share, compared to a loss of $5.26 per share in Q1 2020.</li></ul><b>Appendix 2: Derivation of the Impact of United Continental Airlines and American Aviation Fuel Costs on Total Costs</b></p><p><ul><li><b>United Continental Airlines expects fuel costs in Q2</b>It was $1.83, up 5% from $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,<b>It increased by 55% year-on-year.</b>Meanwhile, United Continental Airlines' operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, of which fuel costs were 2.8 cents.<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, fuel costs in the second quarter will likely increase the company's operating costs by approximately 10.2%.</b></li><li>First quarter<b>American Airlines</b>The operating cost per seat per mile is 14.09 cents, of which fuel costs are 1.7 cents.<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 12.1% of total operating costs. However,</b>American Airlines has not predicted fuel costs for Q2. Data from other airlines shows little change in Q1 compared to Q2. Let's assume Q2 is the same as Q1 at $1.70, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 54.6% compared to $1.10 in Q2 2020. (Same as above.)<b>In the second quarter, U.S. aviation fuel costs are expected to increase the company's operating costs by approximately 6.6%.</b></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airline Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: With Increased Capacity, Is Spring Coming for Airline Stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirline Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: With Increased Capacity, Is Spring Coming for Airline Stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although the worst of the pandemic has passed, airline performance has not yet fully recovered. First-quarter financial reports showed that the performance of the four major U.S. airlines was not very good. However, with the orderly rollout of vaccines and airlines increasing their capacity, the second-quarter performance may be better than the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that crude oil prices surged by 24% throughout the second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared to Q1 2021. But because crude oil prices were low in the second quarter of last year, the fuel costs of the other three airlines, except for Delta Air Lines, increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down their performance.</p><p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Earnings reports will be released before the US stock market opens on July 14.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The US stock market will release its earnings report after the market closes on July 20.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>Earnings reports will be released before the US stock market opens on July 22.</i></p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>First quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of all stocks was not ideal. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>The performance of miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>American Airlines had mixed results, with revenue falling short of expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Even with such a performance, salary subsidies and the company's voluntary resignation and leave programs are also improving the airline's performance. For example, Southwest Airlines reported a net profit of RMB 116 million in the first quarter according to GAAP, resulting in an adjusted net loss of RMB 1.015 billion. The main influencing factor was the $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary bailout and the resignation and leave of employee team members.</p><p>For example, Delta Air Lines reported a net loss of $11.77 in the first quarter, which was adjusted to a net loss of $2.256 billion, the main factor being the recognition of $1.186 billion in government subsidies. Delta Air Lines expects the remaining $847 million in subsidies to be confirmed in Q2.</p><p><b>What factors deserve attention in the second quarter?</b></p><p><b>1. Airlines welcome increased capacity</b></p><p>With the expansion of vaccination coverage and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers have begun to increase their travel, aviation demand is gradually recovering, and the industry situation is improving.<b>One significant sign of improvement is the increase in airline capacity.</b></p><p>Southwest Airlines and American Airlines saw significant capacity increases. Among them,<b>Southwest airlines</b>The first-quarter report stated that Q2 capacity is expected to increase by 90% compared to last year, but has not yet recovered to 2019 levels.<b>It is approximately 15% lower than the same period in 2019.</b>And<b>American Airlines</b>Expected in Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.</b><i>(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Mileage, which is the main indicator for measuring airline capacity.)</i></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines' expected Q2 capacity</span></p><p>Delta Air Lines and United Continental Airlines have been slow to recover their capacity. Delta Air Lines expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines expects Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019.</b></p><p><b>Another sign of improvement is occupancy.</b>Southwest Airlines expects passenger revenue and load factor to also increase in Q2, with the year-on-year decline in passenger revenue expected to narrow to 40%-45% in April-May, compared to a previous forecast of a year-on-year decline of 45%-55%. The occupancy rate in April and May is expected to increase from 70%-75% to 75%-80%.</p><p><b>2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 performance.</b></p><p>Secondly, it is worth noting the impact of rising oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1 to closing on June 30), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How much impact will rising oil prices have on airlines? Here, we will take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.</p><p>Southwest Airlines' operating costs are 8 cents per seat per mile, of which fuel costs are 2.02 cents, accounting for approximately 25% of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected fuel costs to be between $1.85 and $1.95 in the second quarter, representing a quarter-on-quarter change of -1% to +4% compared to $1.87 in the first quarter, with little overall change.<i>(Note: Fuel costs are priced per gallon, the same below)</i></p><p>However, compared to the fuel cost of $1.33 in Q2 2020, it increased by 39%-47% year-on-year. In other words, fuel costs alone will likely increase the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared to Q2 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The situation is similar for United Continental Airlines and American Airlines.</b>Based on the above method, it can be calculated that in Q2 2021, the fuel costs of Continental Airlines will increase the company's operating costs by approximately 10.2%, while the figure for American Airlines will be 6.6%. The derivation steps are at the end of the article for your reference.</p><p>However,<b>Delta Air Lines is a special case; the company expects fuel costs to decline sharply year-on-year in Q2, and its overall second-quarter performance will not be significantly affected.</b></p><p>Delta Air Lines expects fuel costs in Q2 to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared to $1.91 in Q1, representing a month-on-month change of -3% to 2%, with little month-on-month fluctuation. However, Delta Airlines' fuel costs in Q2 decreased compared to Q2 2020. The impact of fuel costs in Q2 may not be significant. Coupled with the confirmation of the $847 million government subsidy mentioned earlier, the performance may exceed market expectations. However, the weak recovery of capacity is a hidden danger.<i>(Note: Fuel costs are adjusted prices)</i></p><p><b>How do some airlines view their Q2 performance?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Southwest Airlines expects its capacity in Q2 2021 to decrease by approximately 15% compared to the same period in 2019, and its revenue in April in Q2 to decrease by 40%-45% compared to the same period in 2019. Revenue in May decreased by 35%-40% compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li><b>Delta Airlines:</b>Delta Air Lines expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue was between $5.64 billion and $6.27 billion, compared to Q2 2019.</b>$12.54 billion,<b>The decline is approximately 50%-55%. Market pre-orders decreased by approximately 32% compared to the same period in 2019.</b></li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines expects Q2 2021<b>Transport capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019;</b>Revenue in Q2 2021 was approximately $9.12 billion, a decrease of about 20% compared to $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin is negative 20%.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>American Airlines expects that in Q2 2021<b>Transport capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;</b>expected<b>Q2 revenue was approximately US$7.176 billion, compared to Q2 2019.</b>$11.96 billion,<b>A decrease of approximately 40%</b>； Excluding net of special items<b>Pre-tax profit margins range from negative 27% to negative 30%.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Air Lines Q2 Earnings Guidance</span></p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view airline Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that Southwest Airlines will report revenue of $3.86 billion and an adjusted net loss of $260 million in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $0.38 per share.</li><li><b>Delta Airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that Delta Air Lines will report revenue of $6.34 billion and an adjusted net loss of $920 million in Q2 2021, with an adjusted loss per share of $1.44.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>Bloomberg projects that United Continental Airlines will report revenue of $5.25 billion and an adjusted net loss of $1.39 billion in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $4.26 per share.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>Bloomberg projects that American Airlines will report revenue of $7.17 billion and an adjusted net loss of $1.54 billion in Q2 2021, or an adjusted loss of $2.40 per share.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>United Continental</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>American Airlines</span></p><p><b>Appendix 1: First-quarter results breakdown of the four major U.S. airlines</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines' revenue was $2.052 billion, compared to market expectations of $2.057 billion and $4.234 billion in the same period last year; The company reported a net profit of $116 million in Q1 2021, compared to market expectations of a net loss of $734 million and a net loss of $94 million in the same period last year. In Q1 2021, earnings per share were $0.19, compared to market expectations of a loss of $1.20 and a loss of $0.18 in the same period last year.</li><li><b>Delta Air Lines: Q1 results fell short of expectations.</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Delta Airlines' revenue was $4.15 billion, a 52% year-over-year decrease, and miss the market expectation' revenue was $3.983 billion, compared to $8.592 billion in the same period last year. The company reported a net loss of $1.177 billion in the first quarter, compared to a loss of $534 million in the same period last year; The company reported an adjusted net loss of $2.256 billion in the first quarter, compared to $326 million in the same period last year; The company reported an adjusted loss of $3.55 per share for the first quarter, compared to market expectations of a loss of $3.17 per share.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental Airlines' revenue and GAAP earnings per share fell short of expectations, while non-GAAP earnings per share exceeded market expectations. Revenue in Q1 2021 was $3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% compared to $7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The company reported a net loss of $1.357 billion, a 20.4% decrease year-over-year compared to the $1.704 billion loss in Q2 2020. The company reported a loss of $4.29 per share, compared to a loss of $6.86 per share in Q2 2020, a 37.5% decrease year-over-year.</li><li><b>American airlines:</b>American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was $4.008 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9% compared to $8.515 billion in Q1 2020; The company reported a net loss of $1.25 billion, a 44.2% decrease year-over-year compared to the $2.241 billion loss in Q1 2020. The company reported a loss of $1.97 per share, compared to a loss of $5.26 per share in Q1 2020.</li></ul><b>Appendix 2: Derivation of the Impact of United Continental Airlines and American Aviation Fuel Costs on Total Costs</b></p><p><ul><li><b>United Continental Airlines expects fuel costs in Q2</b>It was $1.83, up 5% from $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,<b>It increased by 55% year-on-year.</b>Meanwhile, United Continental Airlines' operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, of which fuel costs were 2.8 cents.<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, fuel costs in the second quarter will likely increase the company's operating costs by approximately 10.2%.</b></li><li>First quarter<b>American Airlines</b>The operating cost per seat per mile is 14.09 cents, of which fuel costs are 1.7 cents.<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 12.1% of total operating costs. However,</b>American Airlines has not predicted fuel costs for Q2. Data from other airlines shows little change in Q1 compared to Q2. Let's assume Q2 is the same as Q1 at $1.70, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 54.6% compared to $1.10 in Q2 2020. (Same as above.)<b>In the second quarter, U.S. aviation fuel costs are expected to increase the company's operating costs by approximately 6.6%.</b></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411c6ea7e969aee81c7c240d3341abef","relate_stocks":{"LUV":"西南航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空","DAL":"达美航空","AAL":"美国航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189205572","content_text":"虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。\n值得注意的是，原油价格在整个二季度飙升24%，不过四大航空公司的燃油成本看，较2021年Q1环比变化并不明显，但因为原油价格在去年二季度处于低位，除达美航空外，其余三家航空公司燃油成本同比上升明显，或将成为拖累业绩的主要因素。\n达美航空将于7月14日美股盘前发布财报，联合大陆航空将于7月20日美股盘后发布财报，美国航空和西南航空将于7月22日美股盘前发布财报。\n一季度业绩回顾\n一季度，美国航空股的业绩表现均不太理想。其中，达美航空和联合大陆航空的业绩不及市场预期。西南航空和美国航空业绩喜忧参半，营收不及预期，但净利润超出市场预期。\n即便是这样一份业绩，背后还有薪资救助和公司自愿离职和休假计划在提升航空公司业绩表现。比如西南航空，按照GAAP一季度净利润1.16亿元，调整后变成净亏损10.15亿元，其中主要的影响因素就是与美联储薪资救助和员工组员离职和休假相关的14.48亿美元。\n再比如，达美航空一季度净亏损11.77美元，而调整后变成净亏损22.56亿美元，其中最主要的因素也是确认了11.86亿美元的政府补助。达美航空预计，剩余8.47亿美元的补助资金将在Q2确认。\n二季度哪些因素值得关注\n1、航空公司喜迎运力提升\n随着疫苗接种范围扩大以及疫情逐渐控制，消费者开始增加出行，航空需求逐步回升，行业状况回暖，一个明显好转的信号是，航空公司运力的提升。\n运力提升明显的是西南航空和美国航空。其中，西南航空在一季报中表示，预计Q2运力较去年提升90%，但仍未恢复至2019年水平，比2019年同期低约15%。而美国航空预计2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%。（注：ASMs：可用座位里程，是衡量航空公司运力的主要指标。）\n西南航空预计Q2运力情况\n达美航空和联合大陆航空运力恢复较慢。达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%。\n另一个好转的信号是上座率。其中，西南航空预计，Q2乘客收入和上座率也将提升，预计4月5月乘客收入同比降幅收窄至40%-45%，此前预计同比下滑45%-55%；预计4月5月的上座率将由此前的70%-75%提升至75%-80%。\n2、燃油成本上升，或是拖累Q2业绩的主要因素\n其次，值得关注的是油价上涨对航空公司业绩的影响。二季度以来，原油价格持续走高，整个二季度（4月1日开盘至6月30日收盘），WTI原油期货涨约24%。油价上涨对航空公司影响几何？在此以西南航空为例，给大家做参考。\n西南航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为8美分，其中燃油成本为2.02美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为25%。此前，西南航空预计二季度燃油成本在1.85美元至1.95美元之间，较一季度的1.87美元，环比变动区间为-1%到+4%，总体变化不大。（注：燃油成本采用每加仑价格，下同）\n但与2020年Q2 1.33美元的燃油成本相比，同比上升39%-47%。换句话说，仅燃油成本一项，大概会将公司的运营成本拉高9.75%-11.75%（较2020年Q2），很可能是拖累西南航空Q2业绩的主要因素。\n\n联合大陆航空和美国航空的情况也类似。按照上述方法，可以计算，2021年Q2联合大陆航空的燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%，美国航空这一数字是6.6%，推导步骤放在了文末，供大家查阅。\n不过，达美航空比较特殊，公司预计Q2燃油成本同比惊现下滑，整体二季度业绩受影响不大。\n达美航空预计Q2的燃油成本在1.85美元-1.95美元之间，较Q1的1.91美元，环比变动区间在-3%到2%，环比波动不大。不过，达美航空Q2燃油成本较2020年Q2 2.16的成本是下降的，可能Q2受燃油成本影响不大，叠加前面提及的8.47亿美元政府补助的确认，或许业绩能超出市场预期，不过运力恢复较弱是一个隐患。（注：燃料成本均为调整后价格）\n部分航空公司如何看Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：西南航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年同期下降约15%，Q2中的4月营收较2019年同期减少40%-45%；5月营收较2019年同期减少35%-40%。\n达美航空：达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；营收在56.4亿美元-62.7亿美元之间，较2019年Q2的125.4亿美元，下滑约50%-55%。市场预定量较2019年同期下降约32%。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%；2021年Q2营收约为91.2亿美元，较2019年Q2的114.02亿美元下降约20%；调整后EBITDA利润率为负的20%。\n美国航空：美国航空预计，2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%；预计Q2营收约为71.76亿美元，较2019年Q2的119.6亿美元，下降约40%；不包括特殊项目净额的税前利润率在负27%至负30%之间。\n\n达美航空二季度业绩指引\n\n彭博社如何看航空公司Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：彭博社预计，西南航空2021年Q2营收38.6亿美元，调整后净亏损2.6亿美元，调整后每股亏损0.38美元；\n达美航空：彭博社预计，达美航空2021年Q2营收63.4亿美元，调整后净亏损9.2亿美元，调整后每股亏损1.44美元；\n联合大陆航空：彭博社预计，联合大陆航空2021年Q2营收52.5亿美元，调整后净亏损13.9亿美元，调整后每股亏损4.26美元。\n美国航空：彭博社预计，美国航空2021年Q2营收71.7亿美元，调整后净亏损15.4亿美元，调整后每股亏损2.4美元。\n\n西南航空\n达美航空\n联合大陆航空\n美国航空\n附1：美国四大航空公司一季度业绩明细\n\n西南航空：2021年一季度，西南航空营收20.52亿美元，市场预期20.57亿美元，去年同期42.34亿美元；2021年Q1净利润1.16亿美元，市场预期净亏损7.34亿美元，去年同期净亏损0.94亿美元；2021年Q1每股盈利0.19美元，市场预期亏损1.2美元，去年同期亏损0.18美元。\n达美航空：一季度业绩不及预期。2021年一季度，达美航空营收41.5亿美元，同比下滑52%且不及市场预期的39.83亿美元，去年同期85.92亿美元。一季度净亏损11.77亿美元，去年同期亏损5.34亿美元；一季度调整后净亏损22.56亿美元，去年同期为3.26亿美元；一季度调整后每股亏损3.55美元，市场预期每股亏损3.17美元。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空营收和GAAP每股收益不及预期，非GAAP每股收益超出市场预期。2021年Q1营收32.21亿美元，较2020年Q1的79.79亿美元，同比下降59.6%；净亏损13.57亿美元，较2020年Q2的亏损17.04亿美元，同比收窄20.4%；每股亏损4.29美元，较2020年Q2的每股亏损6.86美元，同比收窄37.5%。\n美国航空：美国航空2021年一季度营收40.08亿美元，较2020年Q1的85.15亿美元，同比下降52.9%；净亏损12.50亿美元，较2020年Q1亏损的22.41亿美元，同比收窄44.2%；每股亏损1.97美元，较2020年Q1每股亏损5.26美元。\n\n附2：联合大陆航空和美国航空燃油成本对总成本的影响推导\n\n联合大陆航空预计Q2的燃料成本为1.83美元，较一季度1.74美元，环比增加5%。与2020年Q2的1.18美元相比，同比增加55%。与此同时，一季度联合大陆航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为15.15美分，其中燃油成本为2.8美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为18.5%。也就是说，二季度燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%。\n一季度美国航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为14.09美分，其中燃油成本为1.7美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为12.1%。不过，美国航空并未预测Q2的燃油成本，从其他航空的数据看，Q1与Q2比变化不大，我们不妨假设Q2与Q1相同为1.7美元，与2020年Q2的1.1美元相比，同比上升约54.6%，同上，二季度美国航空燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约6.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LUV":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"AAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}