To The Moon

This Thursday night is the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting. The continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points at this meeting has been fully expected by the market, so the market focus will be on the wording of the Fed meeting announcement and the content of Powell's subsequent speech. As Trump will officially take office next year, how the chairman of the Federal Reserve deals with this "new" president is also one of the key points of this meeting. To put it simply, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid "political" issues with a neutral position at this meeting. The media are happy to speculate whether the Federal Reserve is with the new president. " Whether to "do it o

Last week, the non-farm data of the United States was released. As suggested by last week's article, the market's attention is not on the economic data of the past two months, but more on the effectiveness of Trump's economic policies after he took office. Therefore, the market performance was relatively flat last week, and the U.S. stock index hit a new high tepid. It is estimated that the pace of the Fed's interest rate cut has not changed much, and it is estimated that there will be a clearer trend after Trump takes office next year.Although the price fluctuation was not large last week, for the oil market, the news announced by OPEC + is very important and needs everyone's attention. This news is that OPEC + announced that additional voluntary production cuts will be postponed for thre

Next week is the beginning of the month, and the non-farm data will come again. The current non-farm data is the basis for the market to speculate on the path of the Fed's interest rate cut. If the data continues to improve, the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will slow down, from the previous expectation of cutting interest rates at every meeting, to cutting interest rates at every other meeting, or even stopping cutting interest rates. This has an impact on the overall trend of commodities.Gold does not react strongly to the pace of interest rate cutsFrom the perspective of impact, the impact on gold and other varieties is not great. The current important impact of gold prices lies in geopolitics, and fluctuations also come from the uncertainty of conflict news. The sha

After Trump was elected president of the United States, the market once believed that there could be a peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a short period of time. But instead，the media revealed that the U.S. government had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons provided by the United States to attack targets in Russia in depth, then Russia updated its nuclear policy, and then the two countries began to fire missiles to each other to escalate the conflict, which dispelled the market from Russia. The idea that the Ukrainian conflict can end in a short time has renewed risk aversion in the market.Gold prices have soared strongly, and new highs are expectedSince the conflict has escalated, the war premium (risk aversion) squeezed in the last two weeks has returned, cau

There were not many big events last week, but the market was not small at all. Since the US election, nothing in the financial market has risen smoothly except the US dollar and Bitcoin, and even the varieties that Trump intends to suppress have fallen one after another. At present, the market is still in the honeymoon period when the market expects the effectiveness of Trump's policies, and the main line has not changed much, which means that before Trump really takes office, strong varieties will continue to be strong, while weak varieties are more likely to continue to fall. Everyone should pay attention to it.The chairman of the Federal Reserve said at an event in Dallas last week that the current recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is good, the labor market is stable, and although i

In last week's US election, Trump finally won, and the market entered the honeymoon period of Trump's trading. Although Trump will not officially take office until January next year, his remarks and preparatory actions have made the market full of expectations. The recent market fluctuations are all related to his words and deeds, so everyone should pay attention to tracking them. The following is a slight list of the relevant trading opportunities after Trump won the election for your reference.The U.S. stock index differentiates, keeping a close eye on the Dow RussellBefore the election, I analyzed with you that Trump's relevant policies will be relatively beneficial to small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional industries, so the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000

The U.S. election has entered the final stage. Although the last voting day is November 6th, there are already a lot of voting data for reference due to mail-in ballots and early voting. Generally speaking, no candidate can win shoo-in at present. Let's wait for the results on Tuesday to observe the final changes in the market and whether supporters of both parties are satisfied with the process of the results after the final results are released. If they are dissatisfied, there may be riots similar to those in 2020, which may bring further turmoil to the market, and this turmoil may be global.The impact of U.S. stock indexesAfter the presidential election in the United States, the motivation to maintain the stability of the American stock market will gradually disappear. The continuation

After the U.S. stock market closed over the weekend, it was suddenly reported that Israel's retaliation plan for the Iranian attack had been implemented. Judging from the time when it occurred, it was obvious that Israel chose to close the financial market because it did not want things to expand. This is related to the approaching time of the U.S. election. Not unrelated. At the same time, the focus of Israel's retaliation is to attack Iran's related military facilities, avoiding crude oil and nuclear facilities, which is lower than market expectations. Therefore, if Iran does not take further actions after Israel's retaliation, the market will return to calm. But the question is, will Iran suck it up?Profound impact on the crude oil marketIf this "retaliation cycle" does not have a stron

There are only more than two weeks left before the US general election on November 5th. There are various opinions on American polls, and the results of different polls are that which candidate is ahead by a large proportion, which makes the poll results have little reference significance. It seems that we will have to wait until the last polling day to know the results. Therefore, any current "Trump" or "Harris" transactions may be revised at any time. Everyone should pay attention to the market swing, and the general direction has not changed much.The "Israel-Iraq conflict" boosts gold to a record high?Current news points out that Israel plans to strike back against Iran, and it is rumored that the specific implementation time will take place before the US election, that is, further mili

The U.S. general election will enter the voting stage on November 5th, and it is less than a month before the polling day. Looking at the current U.S. general election situation, there is still no candidate who can win.It is conceivable that there may still be many unexpected events affecting the election situation in the follow-up. Therefore, I suggest you wait and see what happens, and there is no need to speculate too much. However, because the platforms of the two candidates in this general election are quite different, whoever is elected will at least affect the policy changes in the next four years. Impact on U.S. stock indexes during the election periodFor the U.S. stock index, the general trend depends on the Federal Reserve. After all, it has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts,