To The Moon

During the domestic May Day holiday, the practice of high volatility in the external market continues, but this time it is fulfilled in agricultural products. Let me talk about the macroeconomic situation first. Although the Fed's interest rate meeting will not adjust interest rates as scheduled, the slowdown in QT (shrinking balance sheet) is a real liquidity easing measure. It is very likely that we may not see the Fed cut interest rates this year, but shrinking balance sheet The process is likely to end this year, so it is not an exaggeration to think that the Fed is now at an inflection point for re-easing.The unexpected upset of the non-farm data provided a reason for the Fed to cut interest rates. When the unemployment rate is higher than 4%, it will be the time for the Fed to cut in

Last week, under the news that the conflict in the Middle East eased, gold and silver bulls showed signs of cashing in profits, which triggered a sharp correction in gold and silver prices. The 5-day moving average tracking is very effective. After the "squeeze" trend of gold prices, falling below the 5-day moving average will often trigger a relatively large correction, and the correction is started by a single-day sharp drop, so last week's decline is very close to the previous trend, and it will break through 2450 again It takes a longer time to accumulate energy and cooperate with the news. The current gold and silver prices have entered a turbulent mode. Of course, turmoil is not a bad thing, especially for silver prices. After the turmoil falls, it will be a good time to enter the ma

On Friday, Israel appeared to be about to "retaliate" against Iran, causing crude oil and gold prices to soar and US stocks to plummet. Although both Israel and Iran soon came out to clarify, the Iranian side said that it intercepted the drone that attacked and did not cause too much loss, which caused a sharp retreat in the follow-up market.This phenomenon shows that the two sides of the conflict do not want to make things too big, but the financial market does not seem to buy the result, and the price fluctuation suddenly becomes very manic.The impact of the conflict on the US stock indexThe widening situation in the Middle East has weakened the market's sensitivity to news of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased concerns about war fears. Although there was a sharp rebound on Friday

The biggest event of the weekend was Iran's attack on Israel. I don't know if you have noticed that many incidents this year tend to happen on weekends, as agreed.If this attack occurs in the middle of the week, I am afraid that financial Market fluctuations are definitely not small. And if it happens on the weekend, there is enough time for countries to appease market sentiment. I believe that when the market opens on Monday, the financial market will be much more rational.Looking back at Iran's attack on Israel, in fact, Iran is also well-known. After all, Israel first attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, and then it attracted Iran's counterattack. We do not agree with military retaliation, but Iran's attack on Israel is generally expected. Inside the incident, and after the attack, Ir

At the beginning of each month, the focus of the market will always be on non-farm data. Especially recently, everyone has been keeping a close eye on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and the impact of economic data on market fluctuations is very important. Friday night's non-farm data greatly exceeded market expectations. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, far higher than the 200,000 predicted by economists and the 270,000 in February, the largest increase since May last year. But what is even more surprising is that U.S. stocks rose unexpectedly after a short decline, and gold continued to hit a record high, which made many investors feel at a loss. This phenomenon of completel

On Thursday night, the price of gold continued to hit a record high, which indicated that the market fully expected to cut interest rates. However, when the market fully expects, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will come out and pour cold water on the market.After all, expectation management is one of the important tasks of the Federal Reserve, so no matter what he says, the key depends on how the Fed does its follow-up actions. Even if the interest rate cut is really delayed, it is only an adjustment to re-hype the interest rate cut expectation. The market does not think that you will really exceed expectations, unless this week's non-farm data can exceed expectations, which may bring some adjustments to asset prices.First, pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock indexS

There is no suspense in the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting last week, and Powell's speech after the meeting is also dovish. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year and reduce the QT rhythm at the same time. Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected by the market, at least the current doves expect already has sufficient pricing, so the sensitivity of the follow-up market to the news of interest rate cuts will be relatively reduced. The integrity of the capital market will be weaker than before.When the expectation of interest rate cut becomes closer and closer, the market's reaction to the news will become more dull, and even fluctuate in reverse (all the good news is bad), so the financial market wil

With the release of various economic data in the United States and the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairman and major officials, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June has been extremely extreme.When we have been used to the good news, the small bad news will be particularly dazzling, which is exactly the case in the current market. March-May is another pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut path. The rate cut is not as fast as expected, and the market will also fall into shock, with different impacts on various commodities.First, the price of varieties with sufficient interest rate cut expectations began to fluctuateThe varieties whose price fluctuation is closely related to the expectation of interest rate cut are the varieties that have fully

The most difficult situation in financial markets is that the news does not match the market, or the market price suddenly riots, and you can't find any news that can explain it. Last week's gold market was a similar situation. There is suspense but not much in the Fed's interest rate cut, which is not enough to support the rapid upward movement of gold price (there is nothing wrong with rising more or less, but the speed is really unexpected). For gold prices, an unproven,However, the logic that may conform to the current market reason is that there are funds that think that the gold reserves stored in the United States are not enough to cope with the delivery in the financial market, that is, the forced market in futures terminology.Although this possibility is very rare, once there are

Just entering March, in the absence of obvious special news, gold, US stocks and crude oil all rose sharply last Friday night, not to mention the rapid upward trend of Bitcoin a few days ago. This trend of market resonance shows that besides believing in the expectation of interest rate cut, the market began to gradually believe that inflation is coming again, which leads to the strange phenomenon that interest rate cut and inflation coexist. Theoretically, when inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has no incentive to cut interest rates. However, with the current high bond stock of the Federal Reserve (with a total loss of US $114.3 billion last year), it will take about four years to "turn losses" even if the interest rate is cut now. Therefore, the market believes that the interest rate