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- 探索61探索61
  ·2023-03-02
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  Beware of the traps that have caused Buffett to stumble multiple times.
  巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。1988年买入US Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料20
  Beware of the traps that have caused Buffett to stumble multiple times.
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-06-15
  Sad sad sad
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-06-14
  Very sad
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-05-05
  How to share on Wechat and earn coin
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-05-03
  Hope today will be good
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-03-30
  Sad day today
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-03-27
  Be happy, be smile
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-03-26
  Hmmmm. Today the market is interesting
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-03-25
  See how US market goes today. Hope will not be that bad
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- 探索61探索61
  ·2021-03-24
  My dear......
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13:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Beware of the traps that have caused Buffett to stumble multiple times.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187811778","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。1988年买入US Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料20","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has failed in airline stocks more than once.</p><p>He bought US Air in 1988 and exited the market at a loss; In 2007, Buffett reflected that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money in, such as aviation.\" In 2013, he said, \"For investors, the aviation industry is a deadly trap.\" Unexpectedly, in 2016, he made a large-scale purchase of shares of the four major U.S. airlines, claiming that \"I can't see which one is more outstanding.\" In February 2020, when the aviation industry was in turmoil, Buffett bought a large amount of airline stock and vowed not to sell it, but in early May he \"cut his losses\" and suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Over the decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms,\" and no ordinary person has survived. passenger load factor have remained high, cost control has been strong, and cash flow has been good. The pandemic will eventually pass. Buying during the darkest hours of the aviation industry and waiting for recovery is a temptation that even \"stock market gurus\" find hard to resist.</p><p>Due to the impact of the pandemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 was only 46.3% of that in 2019; The total passenger volume for the year was 250 million, 38.1% of that of 2019. January 31, 2023<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111.SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115.SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029.SH) also released its \"Annual Business Forecast\", predicting that Air China will incur an annual loss of 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion yuan excluding non-recurring items, China Eastern Airlines is expected to incur a loss of 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion yuan, and China Southern Airlines is expected to incur a loss of 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion yuan. The three major airlines suffered losses of 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the three major airlines have accumulated net losses excluding non-recurring items of 187.2 billion to 196.1 billion yuan, averaging 64 billion yuan per airline. The three major airlines are undoubtedly the \"loss kings\" in the A-share market.</p><p>With a loss of nearly 200 billion yuan, where did the money go? Which company is more resilient? Is a \"reversal of adversity\" worth a gamble?</p><p><b>The \"three-legged balance\" has been broken.</b></p><p><b>1) Widening revenue gap</b></p><p>In 2019, all three major airlines achieved record highs in revenue: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion yuan, Air China ranked second with 136.2 billion yuan, and China Eastern Airlines ranked last with 120.9 billion yuan.</p><p>Under the impact of the pandemic, the \"three major airlines\" have diverged:</p><p>China Southern Airlines was the most resilient, with revenue still exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2021, equivalent to 66% of 2019. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2022 was 70.2 billion yuan, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>Air China and China Eastern Airlines followed similar trajectories: their revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; It rebounded to 55% of 2019 in 2021; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, Air China and China Eastern Airlines' revenue was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of that of China Southern Airlines, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines, respectively. The \"three-way balance\" has been temporarily broken, and it remains to be seen whether a balance can be restored after the pandemic.</p><p><b>2) Earning 6 years \"can't withstand\" losing 1 year</b></p><p>The losses in the civil aviation industry are a bottomless pit, with annual profits of only a few billion yuan and losses often reaching tens of billions of yuan. Taking Air China as an example, its total net profit excluding non-recurring items was 35.5 billion yuan from 2014 to 2020, and its loss in 2022 was no less than 37.2 billion yuan. The money it made in 6 years was less than the loss in 1 year.</p><p>In comparison, Air China has the strongest profitability: its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.2 billion yuan in 2017, 6.6 billion yuan in 2018, and dropped to 6.2 billion yuan in 2019. Since the start of the pandemic, Air China's losses have increased year by year: 14.7 billion yuan in 2020, 17.1 billion yuan in 2021, and more than 37 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p>China Eastern Airlines' profit decline was the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, when its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.5 billion yuan; It dropped sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, before the pandemic even occurred, China Eastern Airlines had already lost 590 million yuan. The company suffered losses of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020, 13.5 billion yuan in 2021, and approximately 37 billion yuan in 2022, which is comparable to Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 5.2 billion yuan in 2017, and its loss in 2022 was no more than 34 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Looking at a longer timeframe, Air China is still the best performer. From 2014 to 2019, the total net profit excluding non-recurring items for six years was 35.5 billion yuan; The losses since the start of the pandemic have not exceeded 71.7 billion yuan. From 2014 to 2022, the company recorded a net loss of 36 billion yuan over eight years. During the same period, China Southern Airlines suffered a net loss of 40 billion yuan, and China Eastern Airlines suffered</p><p><b>Airline stocks are also cyclical; during the current full cycle, total profits will be far less than total losses.</b></p><p><b>3) Cash flow from operating activities \"lost\"</b></p><p>When the pandemic broke out in 2020, all three major airlines suffered huge losses. However, Air China and China Eastern Airlines held the \"line of defense\" regarding cash flow from operating activities until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern Airlines suffered losses of 17.1 billion yuan and 13.5 billion yuan respectively, but their net inflow from operating activities remained positive at 12.9 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines finally broke down, with operating cash flow of negative 4.9 billion yuan and negative 260 million yuan respectively. Fortunately, their proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China accounting for 11.6% and China Eastern only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines has consistently had positive operating cash flow, but in 2021 it suffered a loss of 12.6 billion yuan and had positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion yuan. The company reported a loss of 18.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 and a positive operating cash flow of 7.3 billion yuan, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult time for the aviation industry is over, and the cash flow from the three major aviation operating activities is likely to turn positive in 2023.</p><p><b>4) Capacity deployment is based on predictions and represents confidence.</b></p><p>If land reserves reflect developers' market forecasts, then airline capacity allocation is based on expectations of industry prosperity. In the near future, flight numbers, personnel arrangements, flight increases and decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was in full swing, with investment in the three major aviation operations reaching its peak. Among them, China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers (ASK) reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines' were 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, with the capacity deployment of all three major aviation companies halved. The theme for 2021 was \"wait and see,\" with operational spending remaining the same as in 2020, with China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern handling 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers, and 161 billion passenger kilometers, respectively.</p><p>In the first half of 2022, the three major airlines began to diverge. Air China and China Eastern Airlines are somewhat \"unable to afford to lose,\" while China Southern Airlines is \"firmly confident.\" In the first half of the year, Air China had 44 billion available passenger kilometers, only 31% of H1 2019. China Eastern Airlines' available passenger kilometers were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers reached 75 billion, approximately 66% of H1 2019, indicating that its confidence in the recovery is higher than that of its competitors.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is a matter of life and death.</b></p><p>Before the start of the pandemic, the passenger load factor of all three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1 to 2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines generally declined by 10 percentage points, and all of them fell into losses.</p><p>The situation diverged in the first half of 2022, with China Southern Airlines' capacity deployment increasing to two-thirds of that before the pandemic, while passenger load factor remained in the lead. Air China and China Eastern have significantly reduced their capacity, but this still cannot stop the decline in passenger load factor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference in passenger load factor is 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are vastly different.</p><p>Before the pandemic, the gross profit margins of the three major airlines were approximately 12%, with Air China maintaining its leading position in terms of gross profit.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit exceeded 20 billion yuan for five consecutive years. In 2019, the gross profit was 22.9 billion yuan, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had gross profits of 18.7 billion yuan and 13.7 billion yuan respectively during the same period.</p><p>After the outbreak of the pandemic, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were below -20% in 2020 and 2021, and plummeted to -75% in the first half of 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: its gross profit margin was negative 3% in 2020 and 2021, and negative 21% in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the \"three major\" aspects from the perspectives</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root causes of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, fuel costs accounted for approximately 28% of revenue for the three major airlines; Salaries, depreciation, and airport fees each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>passenger load factor declined in 2020, but the sluggish oil market somewhat alleviated the airlines' predicament, and the proportion of oil in revenue decreased instead of increasing. Since the three major airlines have their own \"home airports,\" the proportion of airport takeoff and landing fees to revenue has remained largely unchanged. However, salaries and depreciation are highly \"rigid,\" with these two costs doubling as a percentage of revenue.</p><p>In the first half of 2022, passenger load factor further declined and international oil prices soared... Many unfavorable factors came together, with Air China's fuel costs accounting for 43% of revenue, depreciation for 42%, and salaries for 37%, while only airport fees remained at 13%. China Eastern Airlines' situation is worse than Air China's, while China Southern Airlines has demonstrated strong resilience—its fuel account is 8 percentage points lower than Air China's, its salaries are 13 percentage points lower, and its depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, the proportion of sales, management, and finance expenses to revenue has also increased significantly under the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In all dimensions, including revenue, cash flow, capacity, and passenger load factor, China Southern Airlines significantly outperforms Air China and China Eastern Airlines. If China Southern Airlines' advantages remain obvious after the industry recovers from the pandemic, it can be concluded that the \"three-legged balance\" has been broken.</p><p>However, if a \"reversal of adversity\" is to be achieved in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which is the most resilient, may not be the best target. Air China, which has a strong \"signboard,\" and China Eastern Airlines, which is the \"worst-performing,\" may outperform China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"King of Cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO Shipping Holdings</a>(601919.SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, its cumulative net profit excluding non-recurring items exceeded 185 billion yuan! Moreover, the loss-making bulk cargo transportation business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO Shipping Holdings</a>Total profits far exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In terms of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, airline stocks are not as valuable as container shipping (COSCO Shipping Holdings and Air China both have market capitalizations of 170 billion yuan).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware of the traps that have caused Buffett to stumble multiple times.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware of the traps that have caused Buffett to stumble multiple times.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-01 13:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has failed in airline stocks more than once.</p><p>He bought US Air in 1988 and exited the market at a loss; In 2007, Buffett reflected that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money in, such as aviation.\" In 2013, he said, \"For investors, the aviation industry is a deadly trap.\" Unexpectedly, in 2016, he made a large-scale purchase of shares of the four major U.S. airlines, claiming that \"I can't see which one is more outstanding.\" In February 2020, when the aviation industry was in turmoil, Buffett bought a large amount of airline stock and vowed not to sell it, but in early May he \"cut his losses\" and suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Over the decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms,\" and no ordinary person has survived. passenger load factor have remained high, cost control has been strong, and cash flow has been good. The pandemic will eventually pass. Buying during the darkest hours of the aviation industry and waiting for recovery is a temptation that even \"stock market gurus\" find hard to resist.</p><p>Due to the impact of the pandemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 was only 46.3% of that in 2019; The total passenger volume for the year was 250 million, 38.1% of that of 2019. January 31, 2023<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111.SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115.SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029.SH) also released its \"Annual Business Forecast\", predicting that Air China will incur an annual loss of 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion yuan excluding non-recurring items, China Eastern Airlines is expected to incur a loss of 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion yuan, and China Southern Airlines is expected to incur a loss of 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion yuan. The three major airlines suffered losses of 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the three major airlines have accumulated net losses excluding non-recurring items of 187.2 billion to 196.1 billion yuan, averaging 64 billion yuan per airline. The three major airlines are undoubtedly the \"loss kings\" in the A-share market.</p><p>With a loss of nearly 200 billion yuan, where did the money go? Which company is more resilient? Is a \"reversal of adversity\" worth a gamble?</p><p><b>The \"three-legged balance\" has been broken.</b></p><p><b>1) Widening revenue gap</b></p><p>In 2019, all three major airlines achieved record highs in revenue: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion yuan, Air China ranked second with 136.2 billion yuan, and China Eastern Airlines ranked last with 120.9 billion yuan.</p><p>Under the impact of the pandemic, the \"three major airlines\" have diverged:</p><p>China Southern Airlines was the most resilient, with revenue still exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2021, equivalent to 66% of 2019. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2022 was 70.2 billion yuan, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>Air China and China Eastern Airlines followed similar trajectories: their revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; It rebounded to 55% of 2019 in 2021; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, Air China and China Eastern Airlines' revenue was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of that of China Southern Airlines, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines, respectively. The \"three-way balance\" has been temporarily broken, and it remains to be seen whether a balance can be restored after the pandemic.</p><p><b>2) Earning 6 years \"can't withstand\" losing 1 year</b></p><p>The losses in the civil aviation industry are a bottomless pit, with annual profits of only a few billion yuan and losses often reaching tens of billions of yuan. Taking Air China as an example, its total net profit excluding non-recurring items was 35.5 billion yuan from 2014 to 2020, and its loss in 2022 was no less than 37.2 billion yuan. The money it made in 6 years was less than the loss in 1 year.</p><p>In comparison, Air China has the strongest profitability: its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.2 billion yuan in 2017, 6.6 billion yuan in 2018, and dropped to 6.2 billion yuan in 2019. Since the start of the pandemic, Air China's losses have increased year by year: 14.7 billion yuan in 2020, 17.1 billion yuan in 2021, and more than 37 billion yuan in 2022.</p><p>China Eastern Airlines' profit decline was the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, when its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.5 billion yuan; It dropped sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, before the pandemic even occurred, China Eastern Airlines had already lost 590 million yuan. The company suffered losses of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020, 13.5 billion yuan in 2021, and approximately 37 billion yuan in 2022, which is comparable to Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: its net profit excluding non-recurring items was 5.2 billion yuan in 2017, and its loss in 2022 was no more than 34 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Looking at a longer timeframe, Air China is still the best performer. From 2014 to 2019, the total net profit excluding non-recurring items for six years was 35.5 billion yuan; The losses since the start of the pandemic have not exceeded 71.7 billion yuan. From 2014 to 2022, the company recorded a net loss of 36 billion yuan over eight years. During the same period, China Southern Airlines suffered a net loss of 40 billion yuan, and China Eastern Airlines suffered</p><p><b>Airline stocks are also cyclical; during the current full cycle, total profits will be far less than total losses.</b></p><p><b>3) Cash flow from operating activities \"lost\"</b></p><p>When the pandemic broke out in 2020, all three major airlines suffered huge losses. However, Air China and China Eastern Airlines held the \"line of defense\" regarding cash flow from operating activities until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern Airlines suffered losses of 17.1 billion yuan and 13.5 billion yuan respectively, but their net inflow from operating activities remained positive at 12.9 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines finally broke down, with operating cash flow of negative 4.9 billion yuan and negative 260 million yuan respectively. Fortunately, their proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China accounting for 11.6% and China Eastern only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines has consistently had positive operating cash flow, but in 2021 it suffered a loss of 12.6 billion yuan and had positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion yuan. The company reported a loss of 18.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 and a positive operating cash flow of 7.3 billion yuan, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult time for the aviation industry is over, and the cash flow from the three major aviation operating activities is likely to turn positive in 2023.</p><p><b>4) Capacity deployment is based on predictions and represents confidence.</b></p><p>If land reserves reflect developers' market forecasts, then airline capacity allocation is based on expectations of industry prosperity. In the near future, flight numbers, personnel arrangements, flight increases and decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was in full swing, with investment in the three major aviation operations reaching its peak. Among them, China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers (ASK) reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines' were 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, with the capacity deployment of all three major aviation companies halved. The theme for 2021 was \"wait and see,\" with operational spending remaining the same as in 2020, with China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern handling 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers, and 161 billion passenger kilometers, respectively.</p><p>In the first half of 2022, the three major airlines began to diverge. Air China and China Eastern Airlines are somewhat \"unable to afford to lose,\" while China Southern Airlines is \"firmly confident.\" In the first half of the year, Air China had 44 billion available passenger kilometers, only 31% of H1 2019. China Eastern Airlines' available passenger kilometers were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger kilometers reached 75 billion, approximately 66% of H1 2019, indicating that its confidence in the recovery is higher than that of its competitors.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is a matter of life and death.</b></p><p>Before the start of the pandemic, the passenger load factor of all three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1 to 2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines generally declined by 10 percentage points, and all of them fell into losses.</p><p>The situation diverged in the first half of 2022, with China Southern Airlines' capacity deployment increasing to two-thirds of that before the pandemic, while passenger load factor remained in the lead. Air China and China Eastern have significantly reduced their capacity, but this still cannot stop the decline in passenger load factor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The difference in passenger load factor is 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are vastly different.</p><p>Before the pandemic, the gross profit margins of the three major airlines were approximately 12%, with Air China maintaining its leading position in terms of gross profit.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit exceeded 20 billion yuan for five consecutive years. In 2019, the gross profit was 22.9 billion yuan, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had gross profits of 18.7 billion yuan and 13.7 billion yuan respectively during the same period.</p><p>After the outbreak of the pandemic, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines were below -20% in 2020 and 2021, and plummeted to -75% in the first half of 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: its gross profit margin was negative 3% in 2020 and 2021, and negative 21% in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the \"three major\" aspects from the perspectives</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root causes of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, fuel costs accounted for approximately 28% of revenue for the three major airlines; Salaries, depreciation, and airport fees each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>passenger load factor declined in 2020, but the sluggish oil market somewhat alleviated the airlines' predicament, and the proportion of oil in revenue decreased instead of increasing. Since the three major airlines have their own \"home airports,\" the proportion of airport takeoff and landing fees to revenue has remained largely unchanged. However, salaries and depreciation are highly \"rigid,\" with these two costs doubling as a percentage of revenue.</p><p>In the first half of 2022, passenger load factor further declined and international oil prices soared... Many unfavorable factors came together, with Air China's fuel costs accounting for 43% of revenue, depreciation for 42%, and salaries for 37%, while only airport fees remained at 13%. China Eastern Airlines' situation is worse than Air China's, while China Southern Airlines has demonstrated strong resilience—its fuel account is 8 percentage points lower than Air China's, its salaries are 13 percentage points lower, and its depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, the proportion of sales, management, and finance expenses to revenue has also increased significantly under the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In all dimensions, including revenue, cash flow, capacity, and passenger load factor, China Southern Airlines significantly outperforms Air China and China Eastern Airlines. If China Southern Airlines' advantages remain obvious after the industry recovers from the pandemic, it can be concluded that the \"three-legged balance\" has been broken.</p><p>However, if a \"reversal of adversity\" is to be achieved in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which is the most resilient, may not be the best target. Air China, which has a strong \"signboard,\" and China Eastern Airlines, which is the \"worst-performing,\" may outperform China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"King of Cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO Shipping Holdings</a>(601919.SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, its cumulative net profit excluding non-recurring items exceeded 185 billion yuan! Moreover, the loss-making bulk cargo transportation business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO Shipping Holdings</a>Total profits far exceed 100 billion.</p><p>In terms of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, airline stocks are not as valuable as container shipping (COSCO Shipping Holdings and Air China both have market capitalizations of 170 billion yuan).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5b688e580614406d82926376bf229c","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) 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Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票，还声称“看不出哪家更突出”；2020年2月，航空业风雨飘摇之际，巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售，却在5月初“割肉”，损失惨重。数十年来，航空业经历无数“洗礼”，活下来的没有泛泛之辈，客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去，在航空业的至暗时刻买入，静待复苏，这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。受疫情影响，2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%；全年客运量2.5亿人次，为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日，中国国航（60111.SH）、东方航空（600115.SH）和南方航空（600029.SH）同时发布《年度业务预告》，国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿，东航预计亏损368亿~398亿，南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。2020年以来，三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿，平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。将近2000亿亏损，钱去哪儿了？哪家韧性更强？“逆境反转”是否值得一博？“三足鼎立”局面被打破1）营收差距拉大2019年，三大航空营收均创历史新高：南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。疫情影响下，“三大航空”出现分化：南航韧性最强，2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%；2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%；国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙：2020年营收跌至2019年的50%；2021年回升到2019年的55%；2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。2019年，国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%；2022年前三季，国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破，疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。2）赚6年“架不住”亏1年民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”，年利润不过几十亿，亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例，2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿，2022年亏损不低于372亿，6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。相对而言，国航盈利能力算是最强的：2017年扣非净利润72亿，2018年66亿，2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后，国航亏损逐年加大：2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。东航盈利滑坡最明显：峰值在2017年，扣非净利润45亿；2018年大幅降至19亿；2019年，疫情尚未出现，东航已经亏损5.9亿；2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿，与国航相当。南航相对稳健：2017年扣非净利润52亿，2022年亏损不超过340亿。拉长时间尺度，表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年，六年扣非净利润合计355亿；疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年，8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期，南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。航空股也呈周期性，目前所处的完整周期内，总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。3）经营活动现金流“失守”2020年疫情爆发，三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“，国航、东航一直守到2021年。2021年，国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿，经营活动现流入净额却保持正值，分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”，经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高，国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。南航经营活动现金流一直为正，2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿，相当于营收的10.4%。航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去，2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。4）运力投放基于预判、代表信心如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判，航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。2019年，航空客运“如火如荼”，三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里（ASK）达3440亿客公里，国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。2020年，形势急转直下，三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”，运营投放与2020年持平，南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 、1520亿客公里、1610亿客公里。2022年H1，三大航空出现分化。国航、东航有些“输不起”，南航信心“坚挺”。上半年国航可用客座公里440亿、仅为2019年H1的31%。东航可用客座公里为2019年同期的34%。南航可用客座公里达750亿、约为2019年H1的66%，说明对复苏的信心高于友商。5）客座率生死攸关疫情开始前，三大航空客座率都保持在80%以上，其中南航领先1~2个百分点。2020年，三大航空客座率普遍下降10个百分点，全部陷入亏损。2022年H1出现分化，南航运力投放增至疫情前的三分之二，客座率仍然领先；国航、东航运力投放大幅减少、仍无法阻止客座率下滑。客座率差距10个百分点，三大航空毛利润率有天壤之别。疫情前，三大航空毛利润率约为12%，毛利润金额国航保持领先。2015~2019年，国航毛利润连续5年高于200亿。2019年为229亿，同期南航、东航毛利润分别为187亿、137亿。疫情出现后，2020年、2021年，国航、东航毛利润率都低于负20%，2022年H1暴跌至负75%。南航相对没有那么夸张：2020年、2021年，毛利润率负3%，2022年H1为负21%。从成本、费用，论“三大”短长成本结构揭示了三大航空毛利润下降的根源：2019年，三大航空公司油料成本约为营收的28%；薪酬、折旧、机场费用各占营收的六分之一；2020年客座率下降，但低迷的油多少缓解了航司的困境，油料占营收的比例不升反降。由于三大航空有自己的“主场”，机场起降费用占营收的比例基本没有变化。但薪酬、折旧“刚性”十足，两项成本占营收的比例翻了一倍。2022年H1，客座率进一步下降，国际油价飙升……诸多不利因素齐至，国航油料成本占营收的43%、折旧占42%、薪酬占37%，只有机场费用占比维持在13%。东航的情况比国航更糟，南航则表现出强大的韧性——油料占比较国航低8个百分点、薪酬低13个百分点、折旧低14个百分点……与各项成本占营收比例相似，在疫情影响下销售、管理、财务三项费用占营收的比例也大幅提高。在营收、现金流、运力、客座率等所有维度，南航都显著优于国航、东航。如果行业从疫情中复苏后，南航优势依然明显，可以断定“三足鼎立”的格局被打破。但是，如果在二级市场博“逆境反转”，韧性最强的南航未必是最佳标的，“招牌”靓丽的国航、“最惨”的东航股价表现有可能优于南航。被称为“周期之王”的中远海控(601919.SH)，2014年~2022年前三季，扣非净利润累计超过1850亿！而且造成亏损的散货运输业务已于2016年剥离。假如周期为十年，中远海控总利润远超1000亿。从“全周期净盈利”和估值来看，航空股投资价值不如集装箱运输（中远海控与国航市值均为1700亿）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187216560,"gmtCreate":1623755175250,"gmtModify":1704210630477,"author":{"id":"3550929150938676","authorId":"3550929150938676","name":"探索61","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9021b6d43ee21685175834b2c425dddf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550929150938676","idStr":"3550929150938676"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sad 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