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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-15
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A major interpretation! Causes and Solutions of the Global Supply Chain Dilemma
大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺
A major interpretation! Causes and Solutions of the Global Supply Chain Dilemma
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
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Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
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Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
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Which funds are the most popular among fund investors?
今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。
Which funds are the most popular among fund investors?
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-10
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-09
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The Federal Reserve slows its Taper pace, putting downward pressure on crude oil.
随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。
The Federal Reserve slows its Taper pace, putting downward pressure on crude oil.
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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Cold Thoughts on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Expectation Guidance or Camera Choice
转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周,会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调,并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场
Cold Thoughts on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Expectation Guidance or Camera Choice
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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2021-09-07
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Causes and Solutions of the Global Supply Chain Dilemma","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148030034","media":"中欧商业评论","summary":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺","content":"<p>Most consumers do not yet seem to have a strong sense of the enormous challenges facing almost all businesses around the world—the problems of severe shortages and partial disruptions caused by severe bottlenecks in the global supply chain. This problem is caused not only by the continued evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by inherent flaws left over from past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, in the face of a persistent shortage of semiconductor chips, Toyota announced this month that it would cut its global automobile production by 40%. Despite strong demand for products, factories around the world are unable to buy metal parts, plastics, and other raw materials. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood, and hardware, but are waiting weeks or even months to receive them... More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which could exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. Faced with severe challenges, the China-Europe Business Review invited Professors Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang to elaborate on the underlying reasons for the serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain and propose feasible solutions to these problems. In recent months, delays, product shortages, and rising costs have continued to plague businesses of all sizes and their users.</p><p>Managers and consumers are also beginning to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large influx of orders leads to a sudden shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions between the upstream, midstream and downstream of the supply chain, upstream raw materials are out of stock, midstream work-in-progress is backlogged, and downstream finished products cannot leave the shore due to lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now that things have come to this, we can't help but ask, what exactly is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>The source of the bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The strong short-term rebound in market demand is one of the most direct causes of global supply chain strains.</i></p><p>There continues to be exceptional uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery outlook, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage continues into next year, it is likely to drive up the prices of a range of commodities. Central banks around the world are currently focused on potential inflation, but none can answer with complete confidence that shortages and delays are only temporary as the economy recovers? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that will last for a long time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct factors or causes of global supply chain strains. This problem largely reflects abnormal changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries have been confined to their homes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has driven them to buy more products for their homes, such as game consoles, treadmills, and kitchenware, resulting in a shortage of these products.</p><p>In addition, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people were unable to go on vacation and travel, so they diverted the money saved in this area to buy other products, which also led to a shortage of related products.</p><p>Furthermore, the COVID-19 subsidies issued by governments in the United States and other countries have increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness, further exacerbating the supply shortage.</p><p>During the pandemic, global supply chains inevitably came under pressure due to various lockdown measures. Besides China, Southeast Asia, as an important link in the global supply chain, has severely hampered economic production activities due to the recent resurgence of the pandemic, with Vietnam and Malaysia being the most severely affected. Vietnam is almost entirely in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises: worker loss, order loss, and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the pandemic, extreme weather and natural disasters can also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only an external problem caused by natural disasters; the most serious issue is the supply itself.</p><p>Most companies underestimated the strength of the recent rebound in market demand and did not pre-order enough spare parts and raw materials, thus making it impossible to increase supply and production in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automakers around the world thought that the COVID-19 pandemic would severely reduce and delay market purchases of cars, so they significantly reduced parts purchase orders. However, they never expected that market demand would rebound strongly in a very short period of time, resulting in a severe shortage of parts that cannot meet market demand. This is a misjudgment by the company's management and a human error.</p><p>In the spring of 2020, the automotive industry made significant production cuts. When the Chinese market showed a surprising recovery momentum, an executive of a major Chinese automaker said that the automotive industry \"only ordered three months' worth of semiconductor and other components and did not formulate an optimistic production plan.\"</p><p>At the same time, market demand in different industries rebounded almost simultaneously, catching most companies off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>The automotive industry is currently struggling to obtain the chips it needs because it has not placed orders in advance, as most of its limited chip production capacity has shifted to the more profitable electronics industry. An unexpected increase in television orders from Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow down production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>What has a more profound impact are political factors beyond the control of enterprises. A key starting point for the global semiconductor shortage was the US government's sanctions against mainland Chinese companies. OEM manufacturers such as SMIC have become targets of sanctions, with orders concentrated in Taiwanese companies centered around TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer.</p><p>Qualcomm acted swiftly, visiting Taiwanese semiconductor companies such as TSMC and UMC, and placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, as the U.S. government tightened sanctions against Huawei, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC entered an unusually busy period starting in July, as Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance to stock up on the chips needed before the new sanctions were launched in September.</p><p><b>Difficulties in shipping</b></p><p><i>The serious bottlenecks in transportation have led to a shortage of transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight costs, and delivery delays.</i></p><p>Compounding these difficulties are the enormous challenges in the shipping sector.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March of this year, as global shipping costs soared, many commodities became scarce, resulting in a large number of containers overwhelming the shipping industry. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking hundreds of cargo ships and disrupting traffic on a vital shipping route connecting Europe and Asia for a week. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which accounts for about 12% of world trade, lasted for several months, exacerbating the chaos in the shipping industry.</p><p>Later, the temporary closure of a series of ports in China related to the COVID-19 pandemic (including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo, etc.) exacerbated this chaos. Large quantities of products need to be shipped from Chinese ports to countries around the world, and the closure of these ports has become a global snowball event, even threatening the supply of goods for Black Friday sales in American stores after Thanksgiving.</p><p>In addition, the surge in global consumer demand has led to a continuous increase in orders for the shipping industry. U.S. ports continue to see record arrivals, but due to labor shortages, container shortages, and ship shortages, port congestion has occurred, leading to significant logistics delays. For example, because containers shipped to Los Angeles could not be unloaded, there were no containers available for Iowa soybeans, and buyers in Indonesia had to wait, causing a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to move production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost of transporting goods from Asia to the United States has increased tenfold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the pandemic, it cost $6,000 to $7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwestern United States, but the next shipment, scheduled to leave China in mid-September, already costs at least $26,000. In addition, due to difficulties in rail and truck transportation in the United States, freight costs are likely to rise to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak demand for trans-Pacific freight begins in late summer and ends in winter, when cargo is fully stocked during the year-end holidays. But last winter’s peak in freight demand never ended, and now it’s combined with this year’s holiday shopping spree, adding to the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Today, the current situation in China has exacerbated people's concerns about the future. Many companies are facing unusual phenomena unseen in decades. On the one hand, order production is too busy, and on the other hand, product inventory is severely backlogged, making it impossible to ship goods. This is due to severe bottlenecks in transportation, a shortage of capacity, skyrocketing freight costs, and delivery delays.</p><p>More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which could exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global money supply. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least willing to see.</p><p><b>Deep predicament</b></p><p><i>Global companies will face profound challenges in the long term and need to restructure their global supply chains.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean and just-in-time (JIT) production models to minimize inventory and other waste. This is very effective in cutting costs and increasing profits, but it also leaves very little room for correction.</p><p>Research has found that from 1981 to 2000, U.S. companies reduced their inventory by an average of 2% annually, and the saved costs were used to buy back listed stocks, further driving up stock market prices. If a company is in a relatively stable situation, such as during the long period of peaceful development after World War II, Toyota's production model is exceptionally effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, especially in the VUCA+ era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and novelty), the inherent flaws in Toyota's production model will become increasingly exposed. Once a problem occurs at any point in the supply chain system, the entire system will experience bottlenecks or even disruptions to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience and the ability to respond promptly and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. tight coupling can only play a highly efficient role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>However, changes in the scene, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a constraint, hindering the development of adaptability. This deep-seated issue should be elevated to the level of a paradigm shift (i.e., the VUCA+ paradigm), receive sufficient attention, and be effectively resolved as soon as possible. This is the first underlying reason for the current supply chain bottleneck.</p><p>The second, deeper reason is more profound: the unsustainability of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even just one country (such as China, which has become the so-called \"world's factory\"), solely for the purpose of the largest market and the lowest labor costs.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: various, otherwise relatively independent, pluralistic economies, thousands of miles apart, are so tightly bound together that delays and shortages in any one place can spill over into almost every other part of the world, with no one spared. The COVID-19 pandemic has most vividly demonstrated the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, a drawback that has long been deliberately ignored or even maliciously covered up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, driven by greed, short-term capital, under the guise of globalization's benefits to people around the world, uses business models that are most advantageous to investors to pursue the maximization of a single financial return, intentionally ignoring or even maliciously concealing the potential risks and harms this paradigm poses to society, especially to the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of the supply chain has objectively led to a long geographical distance between production facilities and retail consumption, multiple links in logistics and distribution, and increased operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase and difficulty in controlling operational risks. The current bottlenecks in shipping also vividly reflect what problems have arisen in the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A British company that manufactures packaging and food sealing machines is struggling because it cannot ensure the supply of the parts it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan used to be able to deliver key equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes six months. The Japanese supplier has been struggling to secure the electronic components it needs, most of which are manufactured in Asia and cannot be substituted elsewhere. In addition, automakers are desperate to obtain chips, making it even more difficult for companies in other industries to obtain parts that are already in severe shortage. This is a manifestation of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, and is the second underlying reason.</p><p>The third underlying reason is related to China's rise after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and that the market economy and**would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since joining the WTO, China has not only gained wings but has also begun to quietly create its own rules of the game, challenging the existing global economic system.</p><p>This ultimately triggered a fierce trade war between China and the United States and a series of subsequent geopolitical alignments, causing China and developed Western countries to part ways in terms of economic and political systems. Under this basic framework, whether it is Chinese multinational corporations, local enterprises, or multinational corporations from other countries, they are all facing an unprecedented and profound challenge: how to restructure their global supply chains.</p><p><b>Reconstructed situation</b></p><p><i>The long-term strategy for addressing supply chain bottlenecks should be based on organizational resilience.</i></p><p>We believe that the fundamental principle for short-term responses to supply chain bottlenecks is to overcome immediate difficulties. From the perspective of how Chinese companies should respond, we propose some alternative strategies.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese companies experiencing delivery delays should strive to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, earnestly request the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special circumstances, especially those caused by force majeure (rather than their own human error), and minimize compensation losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese companies need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure they have basically sufficient working capital, avoid broken capital chains, and overcome difficulties smoothly.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policies supporting \"specialized, refined, and innovative little giant\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technological bottlenecks, strive to build themselves and become future hidden (single/specialized) champions. We believe this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and we hope it will attract more attention from Chinese companies.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term strategy for addressing supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, in order to overcome various problems caused by the underlying reasons mentioned above, including just-in-time production models, excessive geographical concentration, and serious conflicts between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but is essentially the same. The core essence of resilience is resilience: the higher the resilience, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of overcoming rebound capacity.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly includes two dimensions. The first dimension is how a company can rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other companies in its industry after experiencing adversity and crisis situations.</p><p>\"Wildfires cannot burn them all, but the spring breeze will bring them back to life.\" This is largely consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, whose main function is to cope with the negative threats brought about by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing adversity and crisis situations, a company can overcome rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other companies in the industry, achieve improvement, overtake and become more dynamic, and reach a higher level than before the adversity and crisis situation. This is similar to \"anti-fragility\" or \"reverse fragility\" that gets stronger with each setback.</p><p>This is why adversity can temper perseverance and promote faster maturity for individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Heroes have endured many hardships since ancient times, but spoiled brats have few great men.\" Sun Wukong's trials and tribulations in Laozi's alchemy furnace, which resulted in his \"keen eyes,\" are an example of improvement and surpassing.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is significantly different from the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and is therefore an important extension and development of it. Its main function is to cope with the positive opportunities brought about by adversity and crisis.</p><p>It should be noted that many people confuse resilience with resistance to impact or robustness. However, there is a fundamental difference between resilience and resilience: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can recover and rebound, or even improve and overtake.</p><p>A vivid analogy is that of a rubber band, whose elasticity reflects the resilience and forward impulse of toughness, but not absorption or tolerance, nor general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery and rebound\" and \"improvement and overtaking\" are the two core inherent characteristics of resilience. Its resistance is similar to that of the \"strong grass\" in \"A strong wind knows the strong grass\" mentioned in the \"Records of the Eastern Guan Han Dynasty: Biography of Wang Ba\".</p><p>In contrast, the key to resilience lies not in resistance, but in the ability to rebound and counter superpowers. As the famous saying in \"Mencius' Announcement to the World\" says, \"Therefore, when Heaven is about to place a great responsibility on a person, it will first test his will, strain his muscles and bones, starve his body, empty his body, and thwart his endeavors. Therefore, he will be motivated and patient to increase his abilities.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, organizational resilience is the core capability for enterprises to cope with adversity and crisis in today's VUCA+ era, encompassing two major dimensions: rebound and recovery and overtaking and improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The zero-inventory approach advocated by the lean and instant models should be transformed into moderate inventory, with different inventory levels arranged according to different situations. More inventory and moderate slack of other resources are needed at the weakest bottlenecks in the supply chain, while inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized elsewhere.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to appropriately diversify the geographical layout of suppliers and avoid over-reliance on a single supplier in one location in order to avoid risks. Folk experience is correct; you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure smooth flow between the domestic and international dual circulation, including dispersing market demand and component supply across multiple developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Acquiring hidden champion companies overseas may be the most valuable investment in the long term, but the acquisition method needs to be flexible and can be participated in by investing in minority shares to strengthen mutual trust between the two parties.</p><p></li><li>There is a need to strengthen cooperative relations with relatively geopolitically neutral countries, such as Vietnam, and African countries where certain conditions are met.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries with hollowed-out domestic manufacturing are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis and will inevitably seek backup solutions, especially alternatives to establishing core domestic supply chains. This is of great significance for the restructuring of existing global supply chains. China needs to pay close attention to this and take precautions.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"bottleneck\" areas in order to form a pattern of mutual dependence and checks and balances with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>Faced with the decoupling between China and the United States in certain areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. Furthermore, Chinese companies need to learn to cope with a future landscape where there are two competing industry standard systems in key global industries.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA+ scenario, the market is demanding higher and higher requirements for supply chain resilience, because any unexpected delays can be amplified to the upstream and downstream of the supply chain of one industry or several industries.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises that are based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, most companies will heal their wounds and forget the pain after the crisis eases, gradually returning to their old ways.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a sustainable management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of diverse stakeholders over the long term.</p><p>It should be noted that the emerging \"anti-globalization\" trend is not a complete negation of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, namely, a shift from an extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to a future globalization paradigm of long-term, sustainable, and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 China Foreign Investment Report, in 2017, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they generated nearly half of foreign trade, a quarter of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, a fifth of tax revenue, and direct employment of more than 45 million people (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employed population, not including indirect employment brought about by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up and ensure the organic balance between domestic and foreign circulation in the \"dual circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-invested enterprises is equally irreplaceable.</p>","source":"lsy1567750882116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A major interpretation! Causes and Solutions of the Global Supply Chain Dilemma</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA major interpretation! Causes and Solutions of the Global Supply Chain Dilemma\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中欧商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 14:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most consumers do not yet seem to have a strong sense of the enormous challenges facing almost all businesses around the world—the problems of severe shortages and partial disruptions caused by severe bottlenecks in the global supply chain. This problem is caused not only by the continued evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by inherent flaws left over from past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, in the face of a persistent shortage of semiconductor chips, Toyota announced this month that it would cut its global automobile production by 40%. Despite strong demand for products, factories around the world are unable to buy metal parts, plastics, and other raw materials. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood, and hardware, but are waiting weeks or even months to receive them... More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which could exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. Faced with severe challenges, the China-Europe Business Review invited Professors Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang to elaborate on the underlying reasons for the serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain and propose feasible solutions to these problems. In recent months, delays, product shortages, and rising costs have continued to plague businesses of all sizes and their users.</p><p>Managers and consumers are also beginning to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large influx of orders leads to a sudden shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions between the upstream, midstream and downstream of the supply chain, upstream raw materials are out of stock, midstream work-in-progress is backlogged, and downstream finished products cannot leave the shore due to lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now that things have come to this, we can't help but ask, what exactly is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>The source of the bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The strong short-term rebound in market demand is one of the most direct causes of global supply chain strains.</i></p><p>There continues to be exceptional uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery outlook, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage continues into next year, it is likely to drive up the prices of a range of commodities. Central banks around the world are currently focused on potential inflation, but none can answer with complete confidence that shortages and delays are only temporary as the economy recovers? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that will last for a long time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct factors or causes of global supply chain strains. This problem largely reflects abnormal changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries have been confined to their homes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has driven them to buy more products for their homes, such as game consoles, treadmills, and kitchenware, resulting in a shortage of these products.</p><p>In addition, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people were unable to go on vacation and travel, so they diverted the money saved in this area to buy other products, which also led to a shortage of related products.</p><p>Furthermore, the COVID-19 subsidies issued by governments in the United States and other countries have increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness, further exacerbating the supply shortage.</p><p>During the pandemic, global supply chains inevitably came under pressure due to various lockdown measures. Besides China, Southeast Asia, as an important link in the global supply chain, has severely hampered economic production activities due to the recent resurgence of the pandemic, with Vietnam and Malaysia being the most severely affected. Vietnam is almost entirely in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises: worker loss, order loss, and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the pandemic, extreme weather and natural disasters can also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only an external problem caused by natural disasters; the most serious issue is the supply itself.</p><p>Most companies underestimated the strength of the recent rebound in market demand and did not pre-order enough spare parts and raw materials, thus making it impossible to increase supply and production in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automakers around the world thought that the COVID-19 pandemic would severely reduce and delay market purchases of cars, so they significantly reduced parts purchase orders. However, they never expected that market demand would rebound strongly in a very short period of time, resulting in a severe shortage of parts that cannot meet market demand. This is a misjudgment by the company's management and a human error.</p><p>In the spring of 2020, the automotive industry made significant production cuts. When the Chinese market showed a surprising recovery momentum, an executive of a major Chinese automaker said that the automotive industry \"only ordered three months' worth of semiconductor and other components and did not formulate an optimistic production plan.\"</p><p>At the same time, market demand in different industries rebounded almost simultaneously, catching most companies off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>The automotive industry is currently struggling to obtain the chips it needs because it has not placed orders in advance, as most of its limited chip production capacity has shifted to the more profitable electronics industry. An unexpected increase in television orders from Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow down production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>What has a more profound impact are political factors beyond the control of enterprises. A key starting point for the global semiconductor shortage was the US government's sanctions against mainland Chinese companies. OEM manufacturers such as SMIC have become targets of sanctions, with orders concentrated in Taiwanese companies centered around TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer.</p><p>Qualcomm acted swiftly, visiting Taiwanese semiconductor companies such as TSMC and UMC, and placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, as the U.S. government tightened sanctions against Huawei, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC entered an unusually busy period starting in July, as Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance to stock up on the chips needed before the new sanctions were launched in September.</p><p><b>Difficulties in shipping</b></p><p><i>The serious bottlenecks in transportation have led to a shortage of transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight costs, and delivery delays.</i></p><p>Compounding these difficulties are the enormous challenges in the shipping sector.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March of this year, as global shipping costs soared, many commodities became scarce, resulting in a large number of containers overwhelming the shipping industry. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking hundreds of cargo ships and disrupting traffic on a vital shipping route connecting Europe and Asia for a week. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which accounts for about 12% of world trade, lasted for several months, exacerbating the chaos in the shipping industry.</p><p>Later, the temporary closure of a series of ports in China related to the COVID-19 pandemic (including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo, etc.) exacerbated this chaos. Large quantities of products need to be shipped from Chinese ports to countries around the world, and the closure of these ports has become a global snowball event, even threatening the supply of goods for Black Friday sales in American stores after Thanksgiving.</p><p>In addition, the surge in global consumer demand has led to a continuous increase in orders for the shipping industry. U.S. ports continue to see record arrivals, but due to labor shortages, container shortages, and ship shortages, port congestion has occurred, leading to significant logistics delays. For example, because containers shipped to Los Angeles could not be unloaded, there were no containers available for Iowa soybeans, and buyers in Indonesia had to wait, causing a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to move production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost of transporting goods from Asia to the United States has increased tenfold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the pandemic, it cost $6,000 to $7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwestern United States, but the next shipment, scheduled to leave China in mid-September, already costs at least $26,000. In addition, due to difficulties in rail and truck transportation in the United States, freight costs are likely to rise to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak demand for trans-Pacific freight begins in late summer and ends in winter, when cargo is fully stocked during the year-end holidays. But last winter’s peak in freight demand never ended, and now it’s combined with this year’s holiday shopping spree, adding to the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Today, the current situation in China has exacerbated people's concerns about the future. Many companies are facing unusual phenomena unseen in decades. On the one hand, order production is too busy, and on the other hand, product inventory is severely backlogged, making it impossible to ship goods. This is due to severe bottlenecks in transportation, a shortage of capacity, skyrocketing freight costs, and delivery delays.</p><p>More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which could exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global money supply. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least willing to see.</p><p><b>Deep predicament</b></p><p><i>Global companies will face profound challenges in the long term and need to restructure their global supply chains.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean and just-in-time (JIT) production models to minimize inventory and other waste. This is very effective in cutting costs and increasing profits, but it also leaves very little room for correction.</p><p>Research has found that from 1981 to 2000, U.S. companies reduced their inventory by an average of 2% annually, and the saved costs were used to buy back listed stocks, further driving up stock market prices. If a company is in a relatively stable situation, such as during the long period of peaceful development after World War II, Toyota's production model is exceptionally effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, especially in the VUCA+ era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and novelty), the inherent flaws in Toyota's production model will become increasingly exposed. Once a problem occurs at any point in the supply chain system, the entire system will experience bottlenecks or even disruptions to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience and the ability to respond promptly and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. tight coupling can only play a highly efficient role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>However, changes in the scene, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a constraint, hindering the development of adaptability. This deep-seated issue should be elevated to the level of a paradigm shift (i.e., the VUCA+ paradigm), receive sufficient attention, and be effectively resolved as soon as possible. This is the first underlying reason for the current supply chain bottleneck.</p><p>The second, deeper reason is more profound: the unsustainability of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even just one country (such as China, which has become the so-called \"world's factory\"), solely for the purpose of the largest market and the lowest labor costs.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: various, otherwise relatively independent, pluralistic economies, thousands of miles apart, are so tightly bound together that delays and shortages in any one place can spill over into almost every other part of the world, with no one spared. The COVID-19 pandemic has most vividly demonstrated the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, a drawback that has long been deliberately ignored or even maliciously covered up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, driven by greed, short-term capital, under the guise of globalization's benefits to people around the world, uses business models that are most advantageous to investors to pursue the maximization of a single financial return, intentionally ignoring or even maliciously concealing the potential risks and harms this paradigm poses to society, especially to the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of the supply chain has objectively led to a long geographical distance between production facilities and retail consumption, multiple links in logistics and distribution, and increased operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase and difficulty in controlling operational risks. The current bottlenecks in shipping also vividly reflect what problems have arisen in the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A British company that manufactures packaging and food sealing machines is struggling because it cannot ensure the supply of the parts it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan used to be able to deliver key equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes six months. The Japanese supplier has been struggling to secure the electronic components it needs, most of which are manufactured in Asia and cannot be substituted elsewhere. In addition, automakers are desperate to obtain chips, making it even more difficult for companies in other industries to obtain parts that are already in severe shortage. This is a manifestation of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, and is the second underlying reason.</p><p>The third underlying reason is related to China's rise after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and that the market economy and**would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since joining the WTO, China has not only gained wings but has also begun to quietly create its own rules of the game, challenging the existing global economic system.</p><p>This ultimately triggered a fierce trade war between China and the United States and a series of subsequent geopolitical alignments, causing China and developed Western countries to part ways in terms of economic and political systems. Under this basic framework, whether it is Chinese multinational corporations, local enterprises, or multinational corporations from other countries, they are all facing an unprecedented and profound challenge: how to restructure their global supply chains.</p><p><b>Reconstructed situation</b></p><p><i>The long-term strategy for addressing supply chain bottlenecks should be based on organizational resilience.</i></p><p>We believe that the fundamental principle for short-term responses to supply chain bottlenecks is to overcome immediate difficulties. From the perspective of how Chinese companies should respond, we propose some alternative strategies.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese companies experiencing delivery delays should strive to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, earnestly request the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special circumstances, especially those caused by force majeure (rather than their own human error), and minimize compensation losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese companies need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure they have basically sufficient working capital, avoid broken capital chains, and overcome difficulties smoothly.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policies supporting \"specialized, refined, and innovative little giant\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technological bottlenecks, strive to build themselves and become future hidden (single/specialized) champions. We believe this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and we hope it will attract more attention from Chinese companies.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term strategy for addressing supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, in order to overcome various problems caused by the underlying reasons mentioned above, including just-in-time production models, excessive geographical concentration, and serious conflicts between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but is essentially the same. The core essence of resilience is resilience: the higher the resilience, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of overcoming rebound capacity.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly includes two dimensions. The first dimension is how a company can rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other companies in its industry after experiencing adversity and crisis situations.</p><p>\"Wildfires cannot burn them all, but the spring breeze will bring them back to life.\" This is largely consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, whose main function is to cope with the negative threats brought about by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing adversity and crisis situations, a company can overcome rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other companies in the industry, achieve improvement, overtake and become more dynamic, and reach a higher level than before the adversity and crisis situation. This is similar to \"anti-fragility\" or \"reverse fragility\" that gets stronger with each setback.</p><p>This is why adversity can temper perseverance and promote faster maturity for individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Heroes have endured many hardships since ancient times, but spoiled brats have few great men.\" Sun Wukong's trials and tribulations in Laozi's alchemy furnace, which resulted in his \"keen eyes,\" are an example of improvement and surpassing.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is significantly different from the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and is therefore an important extension and development of it. Its main function is to cope with the positive opportunities brought about by adversity and crisis.</p><p>It should be noted that many people confuse resilience with resistance to impact or robustness. However, there is a fundamental difference between resilience and resilience: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can recover and rebound, or even improve and overtake.</p><p>A vivid analogy is that of a rubber band, whose elasticity reflects the resilience and forward impulse of toughness, but not absorption or tolerance, nor general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery and rebound\" and \"improvement and overtaking\" are the two core inherent characteristics of resilience. Its resistance is similar to that of the \"strong grass\" in \"A strong wind knows the strong grass\" mentioned in the \"Records of the Eastern Guan Han Dynasty: Biography of Wang Ba\".</p><p>In contrast, the key to resilience lies not in resistance, but in the ability to rebound and counter superpowers. As the famous saying in \"Mencius' Announcement to the World\" says, \"Therefore, when Heaven is about to place a great responsibility on a person, it will first test his will, strain his muscles and bones, starve his body, empty his body, and thwart his endeavors. Therefore, he will be motivated and patient to increase his abilities.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, organizational resilience is the core capability for enterprises to cope with adversity and crisis in today's VUCA+ era, encompassing two major dimensions: rebound and recovery and overtaking and improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The zero-inventory approach advocated by the lean and instant models should be transformed into moderate inventory, with different inventory levels arranged according to different situations. More inventory and moderate slack of other resources are needed at the weakest bottlenecks in the supply chain, while inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized elsewhere.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to appropriately diversify the geographical layout of suppliers and avoid over-reliance on a single supplier in one location in order to avoid risks. Folk experience is correct; you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure smooth flow between the domestic and international dual circulation, including dispersing market demand and component supply across multiple developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Acquiring hidden champion companies overseas may be the most valuable investment in the long term, but the acquisition method needs to be flexible and can be participated in by investing in minority shares to strengthen mutual trust between the two parties.</p><p></li><li>There is a need to strengthen cooperative relations with relatively geopolitically neutral countries, such as Vietnam, and African countries where certain conditions are met.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries with hollowed-out domestic manufacturing are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis and will inevitably seek backup solutions, especially alternatives to establishing core domestic supply chains. This is of great significance for the restructuring of existing global supply chains. China needs to pay close attention to this and take precautions.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"bottleneck\" areas in order to form a pattern of mutual dependence and checks and balances with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>Faced with the decoupling between China and the United States in certain areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. Furthermore, Chinese companies need to learn to cope with a future landscape where there are two competing industry standard systems in key global industries.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA+ scenario, the market is demanding higher and higher requirements for supply chain resilience, because any unexpected delays can be amplified to the upstream and downstream of the supply chain of one industry or several industries.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises that are based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, most companies will heal their wounds and forget the pain after the crisis eases, gradually returning to their old ways.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a sustainable management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of diverse stakeholders over the long term.</p><p>It should be noted that the emerging \"anti-globalization\" trend is not a complete negation of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, namely, a shift from an extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to a future globalization paradigm of long-term, sustainable, and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 China Foreign Investment Report, in 2017, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they generated nearly half of foreign trade, a quarter of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, a fifth of tax revenue, and direct employment of more than 45 million people (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employed population, not including indirect employment brought about by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up and ensure the organic balance between domestic and foreign circulation in the \"dual circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-invested enterprises is equally irreplaceable.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q\">中欧商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781bdda0e66d23e0187d95bba5bcb171","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148030034","content_text":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺陷,和新的地缘政治冲突所致。\n\n\n 比如面对半导体芯片的持续短缺,丰田已在本月宣布削减其40%的全球汽车产量。尽管产品需求强劲,但世界各地的工厂都买不到金属部件、塑料和其他原材料。建筑公司正在为油漆、木材和五金支付更多的钱,但要等上数周甚至数月才能收到……\n\n\n 更令人担忧的是,由于供应链瓶颈,物价开始上涨,很可能加剧全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。面对严峻挑战,《中欧商业评论》特邀李平与石涌江两位教授,阐述全球供应链出现严重瓶颈的深层原因,并提出解决这些问题的可行性方案。\n\n近几个月,延误、产品短缺和成本上升,持续困扰着大大小小的企业及其用户。\n管理者和消费者也开始面对一种现代社会曾经罕见的经历:一方面是大量的订单涌入,形成瞬间的能力短缺继而恐慌焦虑;另一方面又因供应链上中下游无法协调动作,上游原材料缺货、中游在制品积压、下游产成品因缺乏运力而无法离岸。\n事到如今,我们不禁要问,造成目前供应链瓶颈的原因究竟是什么?\n瓶颈之源\n短期强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的原因之一。\n全球经济复苏前景中持续存在异常的不确定性,而“供应链瓶颈”恰恰正是这种不确定性的核心因素。\n如果短缺一直持续到明年,很有可能推动一系列大宗商品的价格上涨。目前各国的中央银行都在关注潜在通货膨胀问题,其中一个无人可以完全自信回答,短缺和延迟只是随着经济复苏短暂出现?还是会成为持续较长时间的严重隐患?\n从表面情况来看,最近出现的强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的因素或原因之一。这个问题很大程度上反映了市场需求的异常变化。\n美国和其他富裕国家的消费者被新冠疫情限制在家中,驱使他们为家里添购类似游戏机、跑步机、厨房用品等产品,因而导致有关产品供应不足。\n此外,由于新冠疫情,人们无法度假旅行,就把这方面节省下来的费用转向购买其他产品,也导致有关产品供应不足。\n再次,美国等国政府发放的新冠疫情补助金同时增加了消费者的购买能力与意愿,进一步加大供应不足的程度。\n疫情期间,受各种封锁措施的影响,全球供应链不可避免会承受压力。除了中国以外,东南亚作为全球供应链中重要的一环,由于最近疫情的反弹,经济生产活动严重受阻,其中又以越南、马来西亚等国最为严重。越南全国几乎都处于社会隔离的状态,其制造业正面临工人流失、订单流失、资本流失等三大危机。\n当然,除了疫情,极端气候、自然灾害也会对供应链产生了负面影响。不过,这只是由于天灾所导致的外部问题,最为严重的还有供应本身的问题。\n大多数企业低估了最近市场需求的反弹强力,没有事前预定足够的零配件与原材料,因此无法在短期内提升供应产量。\n\n例如,全球所有汽车企业都以为,这场新冠疫情会严重减少并延迟市场对汽车的购买,因此大幅度减少零部件购买订单,却万万没想到市场需求在很短时间内强力反弹,导致目前零配件严重不足,无法满足市场需求。这属于企业管理人员的判断错误,属于人为失误。\n2020年春季汽车行业进行大幅减产,而当中国市场显示出令人惊异的复苏势头时,中国某大型车企的高管表示汽车行业当时“只订购了3个月的半导体等零部件,并未拟定乐观的生产计划”。\n同时,不同行业的市场需求几乎同时反弹,也让大多数企业措手不及。全球半导体芯片的严重短缺就与此密切相关。\n汽车行业由于没有提前安排订单,目前很难获得所需要的芯片,因为有限的芯片生产能力大多转向更为盈利的电子产品行业。加拿大或日本的电视机订单的意外增长,加剧了芯片的短缺情况,迫使汽车制造商放慢从韩国到德国再到巴西的生产数量。\n而影响更为深远的是企业无法控制的政治因素。全球半导体短缺的重要开端是美国政府对中国大陆企业的制裁。代工企业中芯国际(SMIC)等成为制裁目标,订单集中涌向了以世界最大的台积电(TSMC)为中心的台湾企业。\n美国高通迅速采取行动,相继走访台积电和联华电子(UMC)等台湾半导体企业,为了替代中芯国际下了大量的订单。此外,由于美国政府加强对华为的制裁,台积电等台湾企业自7月起进入了罕见的繁忙期,因为华为提前下了超乎寻常的大量订单,抢在新制裁于9月启动之前囤货所需芯片。\n航运之难\n运输产生的严重瓶颈,导致运力难求,运费暴涨,交货延误。\n使得以上困难雪上加霜的还有在航运领域的巨大挑战。\n具体而言,今年3月开始,随着全球航运成本飙升,许多商品变得稀缺,导致大批集装箱让航运业应接不暇。先有一艘巨型货轮在苏伊士运河搁浅,数百艘货船受阻,导致连接欧洲与亚洲的重要航道交通中断了一周。苏伊士运河是占世界贸易约12%的货物的通道,这一负面影响持续了好几个月,加剧了海运业的混乱。\n后来,中国一系列与新冠疫情有关的港口临时关闭(包括深圳、烟台、宁波等)更加剧了这种混乱。大量的产品需要从中国的港口运往全球各个国家,这些港口的关闭成为波及全球的滚雪球事件,甚至威胁美国商店感恩节后的黑色星期五促销活动的商品供应。\n加之全球消费需求暴增,航运业订单量持续增加。美国港口到货量持续创纪录,但由于缺工、缺货柜,缺船,出现塞港情形,导致物流大延迟。例如,由于运到洛杉矶的集装箱无法卸货,爱荷华州的大豆没有集装箱可运,而印度尼西亚的买家只能等待,于是引发东南亚动物饲料的短缺。\n长期以来,廉价可靠的海运一直是国际贸易的重要组成部分,让制造商们能为寻找低工资劳动力和廉价原材料将生产在世界各地转移。但自新冠疫情以来,从亚洲向美国运输货物的成本已经上涨了10倍之多。\n\n疫情之前,一个40英尺集装箱从上海运到美国中西部需要花6000-7000美元,但定于9月中旬离开中国的下一批货物运费已至少是2.6万美元;再加上由于美国铁路和卡车运输的困难,运费很可能会涨到3.5万美元。\n通常情况下,跨太平洋的货运需求高峰始于夏末,结束于冬季,也就是年底节假日期间的货物备全之后。但去年冬季,货运需求的高峰一直没有结束,现在又与今年节假日期间购物高潮汇合在一起,加剧了工厂、仓库、货船和卡车的压力。\n如今,中国国内的现状加重了人们对未来前景的担心。很多企业面临几十年未遇的反常现象。一方面订单生产忙不过来,另一方面产品库存严重积压,无法发货。这是因为运输产生严重瓶颈,运力难求,运费暴涨,交货延误。\n更令人担心的是,由于供应链瓶颈,物价开始上涨,很可能加剧由于全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。这是大家最为担心,也是最不愿意看到的后果。\n深层之困\n全球企业都将长期面临深刻挑战,需重构自身业务的全球供应链。\n受丰田生产模式成功的影响,许多公司都采用了精益生产模式与即时生产模式(Just in Time/JIT),以尽量削减库存和其他各种浪费。这对削减成本、提高利润很有效果,但这也给纠正差错留下极小的余地。\n有关研究发现,从1981年到2000年,美国企业每年平均降低2%库存,而省下来的成本用来回购上市股票,进一步推高股票市场价格。若企业处于相对稳定的情境下,如世界二战后的长期和平发展阶段,丰田生产模式显得异常有效。\n一旦情境变得高度混乱,特别是VUCA+时代(多变性、不确定性、复杂性、模糊性和新颖性),丰田生产模式内在的缺陷就会日益暴露。一旦供应链系统中任何一处出现问题,整个系统就会产生瓶颈,甚至出现不同程度的断裂。\n换言之,由于丰田生产模式构建在资源管理领域的紧密耦合(tight coupling)的底层逻辑之上,这种模式严重缺乏韧性,在遇到突发性危机以后的及时应对与快速反弹方面缺乏能力,紧密耦合仅仅只能在高纬度场景下发挥高效率作用。\n但场景变化,尤其是突然的变化,将这种耦合变成一种桎梏,阻碍应变能力的发挥。这一深层问题,应该提高到范式(即VUCA+范式)转变的高度,得到足够重视,并尽快有效解决。这是目前供应链瓶颈的第一个深层原因。\n第二个深层原因更为深刻,即以前全球化范式本身不可持续发展的问题。这个问题的核心内涵,是全球生产供应过于集中在少数几个国家,甚至只有一个国家(如中国成为所谓“世界工厂”),仅仅为了最大规模市场与最低人工成本。\n世界已得到了一个痛苦的教训:相隔万里的各个原本相对独立的多元经济体如此紧密地绑在一起,以至于任何一个地方的延误和短缺都会波及到几乎世界所有其他地方,无一幸免。这次新冠疫情最为形象生动地体现这一经济发展范式的弊端,而这一弊端长期被人们有意忽视,甚至恶意掩盖。\n\n换言之,出自贪婪本性,短期资本打着全球化对全球人民有利的旗号,利用对资方最为有利的商业模式,追求单一财务回报最大化,有意忽视,甚至恶意掩盖这一范式对社会造成的潜在风险与危害,尤其是对其他利益相关者长期利益而言。\n供应链的全球布局,客观上导致了生产配套与零售消费之间的地理性长距离,物流配送的多个环节以及运营复杂性的提高,直接的后果便是经营风险的提高和难以掌控。目前航运的瓶颈同样形象生动地反映了全球经济发展范式到底出现了什么问题。\n英国一家生产包装食品密封机器的公司因无法确保其所需部件的供货而步履维艰。公司在日本的供应商原本四到六周就能交付关键设备,现在需要半年。而那家日本供应商一直在努力确保其所需的电子元件,这些元件多数在亚洲生产,其他地方无法替代。加上汽车制造商不顾一切想获得芯片,让其他行业的企业更难获得本已严重短缺的零部件。这是紧密耦合在地理布局领域的体现,是第二个深层原因。\n第三个深层原因则和全球化之后的中国崛起有关。冷战结束以后,福山等人认为历史告一段落,市场经济与民主宪政将成为未来发展之统一模板。然而,谁都没有料想到,中国自从加入了WTO 之后,不仅如虎添翼,而且开始悄悄自行创立游戏规则,导致已有的全球经济体制遭受挑战。\n这最终引发了剧烈的中美贸易战和后续的一系列地缘政治导向的选边站队,在经济与政治制度等方面使得中国与西方发达国家开始分道扬镳。在这种基本格局之下,无论是中国的跨国公司或是本土企业,还是其它国家的跨国公司,全部都面临着一场前所未有的深刻挑战,即如何重构自己业务的全球供应链。\n重构之局\n供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略,应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑。\n我们认为,供应链瓶颈的短期应对策略,以度过眼前难关为其基本原则。我们从中国企业如何应对的视角,提出一些可供选择的策略。\n\n遭遇交货延误的中国企业,应该争取与对方重新谈判新合同,恳请对方理解特殊情境所导致的困难,尤其是在不可抗力条件(而非自己的人为失误)造成的困境,尽量减少赔偿损失。\n中国企业需要特别关注现金流,保证有基本足够的流动资金,避免资金链断裂,以便顺利度过难关。\n中国企业可以充分利用政府目前支持“专精特新小巨人”企业的政策,加强突破技术瓶颈的必要研发,努力打造自身,成为未来隐形(单项/精一)冠军。我们认为,这是目前、以及未来很长一段时间内最具重大意义的国策,希望引起更多中国企业的重视。\n\n另一方面,我们主张供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑,以此克服以上提到的深层原因所带来的各种问题,包括即时生产模式、地理过于集中、中美严重冲突。\n关于韧性(resilience)的定义在不同领域有所不同,但基本上大同小异。韧性的核心本质就是反弹能力:韧性越高,在变形压力下继续发挥功能的潜力越大。然而,在管理学领域,韧性概念有所延伸与发展,主要在超越反弹能力方面。\n我们认为,组织韧性主要包含两大维度。第一个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后,某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地恢复反弹与继续存活。\n“野火烧不尽,春风吹又生”。这与工程领域韧性概念大体一致,其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的负面威胁。\n第二个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后,某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地超越反弹与存活,达到改进反超与更具活力,比逆境危机情境之前更上一层楼。这好比越挫越强的“反脆弱”或“逆脆弱”。\n这就是为何逆境可以磨练毅力,促进个人与组织更快成熟,正如俗语所言,“自古英雄多磨难,纨绔子弟少伟男”。孙悟空在太上老君炼丹炉里历经磨难,炼就“火眼金睛”,就是改进反超一个范例。\n组织韧性的第二维度与工程领域韧性概念具有明显区别,因此是其重要延伸与发展,其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的正面机遇。\n需要特别指出,不少人将韧性与对抗打击的抵抗力或鲁棒性(robustness)相提并论,混为一谈。但是,韧性与抵抗力具有本质区别:后者不会被逆境危机情境打击而受损,当然也不需要反弹或反超,而前者必须遭受打击后严重受损,却能够恢复反弹,甚至改进反超。\n一个形象比喻就是橡皮筋,其弹性反映韧性的恢复力与前冲力,但不是吸收性或容忍性,也不是泛泛的适应性。\n因此, “恢复反弹”与“改进反超”是韧性的两大核心内在特征。抵抗力类似《东观汉记·王霸传》中所提到的“疾风知劲草”中的“劲草”。\n与此不同,韧性关键不在于抵抗力,而在于反弹与反超能力,如同《孟子·告天下》名言所说,“故天将降大任于斯人也,必先苦其心志,劳其筋骨,饿其体肤,空乏其身,行拂乱其所为,所以动心忍性,曾益其所不能。”\n\n总之,组织韧性是企业面临当今VUCA+时代应对逆境危机的核心能力,包含反弹恢复和反超改进两大维度。我们认为,组织韧性主要体现于几下几个方面:\n\n精益模式与即时模式所提倡的零库存思路应该变成适度库存,根据不同情境采用不同的库存程度安排。在供应链最为薄弱的瓶颈之处需要较多的库存,以及其他资源的适度冗余(slack),而在其他地方则可以尽量减少库存与其他冗余资源。\n需要适度分散供应商地理布局,不可过度依赖一个地方的唯一供应商,以此规避风险。民间经验没错,不应把所有鸡蛋放到一个篮子里。\n\n\n切实保障国内国际双循环两者之间的通畅流通,包括将市场需求与零部件供应分散于不同的多个发达国家与多个发展中国家。\n在海外并购隐形冠军企业可能是最有长期价值的投资,但并购方式需要灵活机动,可以多以少数股投资方式参与,强化双方彼此的信任。\n需要加强与地缘政治方面相对中立国家的合作关系,例如越南与某些条件具备的非洲国家。\n本土制造业空洞化的发达国家开始意识到目前危机的长远意义,定会寻求备用方案,尤其是建立本土核心供应链的替代方案。这对全球现有供应链的重组意义重大。中国需要对此保持密切关注,末雨绸缪。\n与此类似,中国需要在某些“卡脖子”领域里有所突破,以此与其他竞争国家形成彼此依赖、互为制约的格局,类似核武器国之间的遏制格局。\n面对某些领域的中美脱钩,中国需要格外关注,并积极参与全球行业标准的制定。此外,中国企业需要学会应对在全球重要行业存在两套相互竞争的行业标准体系的未来格局。\n\n面对日益明显的VUCA+情境,市场对供应链韧性要求越来越高,因为任何意外导致的延误都可能放大至一个行业,或数个行业供应链的上下游。\n我们认为,需要从根本上转变企业以短期财务回报为本的主流管理范式与商业模式。如果没有这一深刻范式转变,危机缓和之后大多数企业就会好了伤疤忘了疼,逐步回到以前的老路上去。\n这是一场管理革命,需要长期努力,重建可持续发展的长期平衡多元利益相关者权益的管理范式与商业模式。\n需要特别指出,目前涌现的“逆全球化”趋势,并不是对以前全球化范式的彻底否定,而只是部分纠偏,即从极端偏执的全球化范式转向长期持续平衡发展的未来全球化范式。\n根据中国外商投资2018年报告,2017年外资企业仅占全国企业总数不足3%, 却创造了近1/2外贸、1/4规模以上工业企业利润、1/5税收收入、直接就业人数超过4500万(占国内城镇就业人口的比重超过10%,还不包括上下游相关产业所带来的间接就业)。\n因此,我们需要坚持改革开放的基本国策,保证“双循环”中内外循环的有机平衡。类似民营企业对于经济发展的重要作用,外资企业的独特作用同样不可替代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986494,"gmtCreate":1631543772418,"gmtModify":1676530571995,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986494","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, while the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has fallen sharply. The background to these changes, as we mentioned in our September monthly report, is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase. Coupled with the significant gains accumulated in the past, fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important:</p><p><b>► epidemic</b>Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic correspond to subsequent economic activity and employment recovery, and also to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b></p><p><b>► inflation</b>The August CPI data, which will be released mid-month (September 14), will also have a significant impact on expectations of volume reduction and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stages, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction has been largely eliminated, but the official launch in December remains the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible that a fine-tuning statement in September will lay the groundwork, especially since the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal Policy and Debt Ceiling</b>The second half of September is a crucial juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans, with potential impacts even greater than those of monetary policy or the pandemic.<b>The renewed increase in the TGA account not only signifies that the period of sharp decline in liquidity release since April and May has passed, but also signifies a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than the QE tapering, which is merely a reduction in incremental quantitative easing.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has plummeted. These changes are basically consistent with the information we mentioned in our September allocation monthly report, \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9): Short-term Shift to Risk Hedging\", published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background to these changes is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst for global growth expectations (the impact of the pandemic is still ongoing, and China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but policy variables may increase (the Federal Reserve FOMC, the US debt ceiling, and fiscal spending). Coupled with the significant gains accumulated previously (September was the weakest month for US stocks throughout the year), volatility cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important and deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, there is the pandemic. Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Revisiting the Pace and Impact of the Last US Pandemic (August 30-September 5, 2021)\") and (\"The 'Mystery' of Real Interest Rates Remaining Negative\"), we find that the previous pandemic from early October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and lessons to be learned from the current one.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic corresponds to a rapid recovery in subsequent economic activity and employment, although there is a certain time lag, and it also corresponds to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b>。</p><p>The latest recent changes are that the US epidemic has shown some signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases, and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched a new epidemic action plan to accelerate mandatory vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan: Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11)\").<b>If the above measures, taken together, have a significant effect on improving the pandemic in the future, it will help alleviate growth concerns and create conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, there is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data, to be released mid-month, will also have a significant impact on expectations of tapering and interest rate trends.</b>The short-term impact of the escalation of the pandemic is twofold. On the one hand, it may further drag down supply chain recovery, leading to supply shortages. For example, the continued escalation of the pandemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has already affected local production. On the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, we have recently noticed a weakening in high-frequency travel and consumption indicators, not to mention that the surge in goods consumption due to fiscal stimulus has also fallen from its peak.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of the August PMI), inventory (July nominal consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially automobiles, where the supply-demand imbalance is most acute). Moreover, based on the experience of the previous round of the pandemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the main impact was on delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure in April and May was mainly due to the combination of demand stimulus and multiple structural factors such as weather and chips.</p><p>The current market consensus is that inflation will continue to decline month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase market pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce quantitative easing and raise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early tapering has been largely eliminated, but the official start in December remains the baseline scenario.</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of QE reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-22, 2021\"). With only two meetings remaining before the end of the year, in September and early November, it is not impossible for the September fine-tuning statement to lay the groundwork. Moreover, the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots, making it still a time worth paying close attention to.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices such as Treasury Bond interest rates, small expected changes are sufficient; substantial changes are not necessary.</b>This was the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recent special report, \"The 'Mystery' of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates,\" we discussed the periods since the pandemic and throughout history when real interest rates have been significantly negative.<b>High liquidity is a major, even the most critical, factor.</b>。 If calculated quantitatively using the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has room for approximately 130 basis points to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans. Their potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or the pandemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from recess on September 15, it can begin negotiating and discussing the details of the $3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9-15, 2021\"), and whether tax increases will actually be involved will have a clearer picture. If things go smoothly, coupled with the high probability of the $550 billion infrastructure plan being passed, it is expected to have a significant boosting effect on both interest rates and the US dollar. However, tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be a focus of future attention.</b>。 Last week, Treasury Secretary Yellen again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, as the Treasury's current emergency measures will expire in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. The two parties are highly likely to find a compromise, and historically, its actual impact on the market has not been significant.<b>But more importantly, the lifting of the debt ceiling implies an impact on the Ministry of Finance's TGA account, or bond supply.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The TGA account has now fallen from $1.6 trillion in early February to $200 billion, the lowest level since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The renewed increase in TGA accounts not only signifies that the period of significant decline in TGA accounts since April and May, which released liquidity, has passed, but also indicates a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than monetary policy reduction operations that simply reduce the increase, and deserves close attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, while the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has fallen sharply. The background to these changes, as we mentioned in our September monthly report, is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase. Coupled with the significant gains accumulated in the past, fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important:</p><p><b>► epidemic</b>Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic correspond to subsequent economic activity and employment recovery, and also to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b></p><p><b>► inflation</b>The August CPI data, which will be released mid-month (September 14), will also have a significant impact on expectations of volume reduction and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stages, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction has been largely eliminated, but the official launch in December remains the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible that a fine-tuning statement in September will lay the groundwork, especially since the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal Policy and Debt Ceiling</b>The second half of September is a crucial juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans, with potential impacts even greater than those of monetary policy or the pandemic.<b>The renewed increase in the TGA account not only signifies that the period of sharp decline in liquidity release since April and May has passed, but also signifies a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than the QE tapering, which is merely a reduction in incremental quantitative easing.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has plummeted. These changes are basically consistent with the information we mentioned in our September allocation monthly report, \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9): Short-term Shift to Risk Hedging\", published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background to these changes is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst for global growth expectations (the impact of the pandemic is still ongoing, and China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but policy variables may increase (the Federal Reserve FOMC, the US debt ceiling, and fiscal spending). Coupled with the significant gains accumulated previously (September was the weakest month for US stocks throughout the year), volatility cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important and deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, there is the pandemic. Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Revisiting the Pace and Impact of the Last US Pandemic (August 30-September 5, 2021)\") and (\"The 'Mystery' of Real Interest Rates Remaining Negative\"), we find that the previous pandemic from early October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and lessons to be learned from the current one.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic corresponds to a rapid recovery in subsequent economic activity and employment, although there is a certain time lag, and it also corresponds to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b>。</p><p>The latest recent changes are that the US epidemic has shown some signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases, and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched a new epidemic action plan to accelerate mandatory vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan: Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11)\").<b>If the above measures, taken together, have a significant effect on improving the pandemic in the future, it will help alleviate growth concerns and create conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, there is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data, to be released mid-month, will also have a significant impact on expectations of tapering and interest rate trends.</b>The short-term impact of the escalation of the pandemic is twofold. On the one hand, it may further drag down supply chain recovery, leading to supply shortages. For example, the continued escalation of the pandemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has already affected local production. On the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, we have recently noticed a weakening in high-frequency travel and consumption indicators, not to mention that the surge in goods consumption due to fiscal stimulus has also fallen from its peak.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of the August PMI), inventory (July nominal consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially automobiles, where the supply-demand imbalance is most acute). Moreover, based on the experience of the previous round of the pandemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the main impact was on delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure in April and May was mainly due to the combination of demand stimulus and multiple structural factors such as weather and chips.</p><p>The current market consensus is that inflation will continue to decline month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase market pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce quantitative easing and raise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early tapering has been largely eliminated, but the official start in December remains the baseline scenario.</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of QE reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-22, 2021\"). With only two meetings remaining before the end of the year, in September and early November, it is not impossible for the September fine-tuning statement to lay the groundwork. Moreover, the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots, making it still a time worth paying close attention to.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices such as Treasury Bond interest rates, small expected changes are sufficient; substantial changes are not necessary.</b>This was the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recent special report, \"The 'Mystery' of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates,\" we discussed the periods since the pandemic and throughout history when real interest rates have been significantly negative.<b>High liquidity is a major, even the most critical, factor.</b>。 If calculated quantitatively using the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has room for approximately 130 basis points to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans. Their potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or the pandemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from recess on September 15, it can begin negotiating and discussing the details of the $3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9-15, 2021\"), and whether tax increases will actually be involved will have a clearer picture. If things go smoothly, coupled with the high probability of the $550 billion infrastructure plan being passed, it is expected to have a significant boosting effect on both interest rates and the US dollar. However, tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be a focus of future attention.</b>。 Last week, Treasury Secretary Yellen again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, as the Treasury's current emergency measures will expire in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. The two parties are highly likely to find a compromise, and historically, its actual impact on the market has not been significant.<b>But more importantly, the lifting of the debt ceiling implies an impact on the Ministry of Finance's TGA account, or bond supply.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The TGA account has now fallen from $1.6 trillion in early February to $200 billion, the lowest level since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The renewed increase in TGA accounts not only signifies that the period of significant decline in TGA accounts since April and May, which released liquidity, has passed, but also indicates a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than monetary policy reduction operations that simply reduce the increase, and deserves close attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景,如我们在9月月报中提示的,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面,叠加此前积累了较多涨幅,因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多,几个变化较为重要:\n►疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀,月中(9月14日)将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果,上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议(9月21~22日),提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点:9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量:疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌,这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报(2021-9)短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂(疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势)、但政策变数却可能增多的局面(美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出),叠加此前积累了较多涨幅(9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份),因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间,有几个变化较为重要,值得密切关注:\n一是疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在(《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》)和(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)中分析,上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处,疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复,虽然存在一定时滞,同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是,美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象,新增、重症和死亡都是如此,同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划(《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪(9月11日)》),如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话,那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀(9月14日),月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的,一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张,例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产,但另一方面也会造成需求的回落,例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱,更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落,因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是,近期我们注意到供应链(如8月PMI的交付时间)、库存(7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存)、产能利用率(特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车)都出现了改善迹象,而且根据上一轮疫情的经验,疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率,4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落(0.4%vs. 7月的0.5%),如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议(9月21~22日),经历了近期一系列的变化后,提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形(《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么?》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》)。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下,9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息,因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是,对于资产价格如国债利率而言,预期上的微小变化已经足够,并非需要等到实质性的改变,2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中,提到疫情以来,以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期,高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话,实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如,9月15日参议院休假回来以后,就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论(《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远?2021年8月9日~8月15日》),而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利,叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过,对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果,但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外,债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限,当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心,两党大概率会找到妥协方案,从历史上来看,对市场的实际影响也不大,但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元,这也是2019年9月以来的新低,已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作,值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986542,"gmtCreate":1631543766386,"gmtModify":1676530571987,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986542","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, while the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has fallen sharply. The background to these changes, as we mentioned in our September monthly report, is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase. Coupled with the significant gains accumulated in the past, fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important:</p><p><b>► epidemic</b>Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic correspond to subsequent economic activity and employment recovery, and also to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b></p><p><b>► inflation</b>The August CPI data, which will be released mid-month (September 14), will also have a significant impact on expectations of volume reduction and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stages, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction has been largely eliminated, but the official launch in December remains the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible that a fine-tuning statement in September will lay the groundwork, especially since the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal Policy and Debt Ceiling</b>The second half of September is a crucial juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans, with potential impacts even greater than those of monetary policy or the pandemic.<b>The renewed increase in the TGA account not only signifies that the period of sharp decline in liquidity release since April and May has passed, but also signifies a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than the QE tapering, which is merely a reduction in incremental quantitative easing.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has plummeted. These changes are basically consistent with the information we mentioned in our September allocation monthly report, \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9): Short-term Shift to Risk Hedging\", published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background to these changes is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst for global growth expectations (the impact of the pandemic is still ongoing, and China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but policy variables may increase (the Federal Reserve FOMC, the US debt ceiling, and fiscal spending). Coupled with the significant gains accumulated previously (September was the weakest month for US stocks throughout the year), volatility cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important and deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, there is the pandemic. Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Revisiting the Pace and Impact of the Last US Pandemic (August 30-September 5, 2021)\") and (\"The 'Mystery' of Real Interest Rates Remaining Negative\"), we find that the previous pandemic from early October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and lessons to be learned from the current one.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic corresponds to a rapid recovery in subsequent economic activity and employment, although there is a certain time lag, and it also corresponds to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b>。</p><p>The latest recent changes are that the US epidemic has shown some signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases, and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched a new epidemic action plan to accelerate mandatory vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan: Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11)\").<b>If the above measures, taken together, have a significant effect on improving the pandemic in the future, it will help alleviate growth concerns and create conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, there is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data, to be released mid-month, will also have a significant impact on expectations of tapering and interest rate trends.</b>The short-term impact of the escalation of the pandemic is twofold. On the one hand, it may further drag down supply chain recovery, leading to supply shortages. For example, the continued escalation of the pandemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has already affected local production. On the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, we have recently noticed a weakening in high-frequency travel and consumption indicators, not to mention that the surge in goods consumption due to fiscal stimulus has also fallen from its peak.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of the August PMI), inventory (July nominal consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially automobiles, where the supply-demand imbalance is most acute). Moreover, based on the experience of the previous round of the pandemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the main impact was on delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure in April and May was mainly due to the combination of demand stimulus and multiple structural factors such as weather and chips.</p><p>The current market consensus is that inflation will continue to decline month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase market pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce quantitative easing and raise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early tapering has been largely eliminated, but the official start in December remains the baseline scenario.</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of QE reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-22, 2021\"). With only two meetings remaining before the end of the year, in September and early November, it is not impossible for the September fine-tuning statement to lay the groundwork. Moreover, the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots, making it still a time worth paying close attention to.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices such as Treasury Bond interest rates, small expected changes are sufficient; substantial changes are not necessary.</b>This was the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recent special report, \"The 'Mystery' of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates,\" we discussed the periods since the pandemic and throughout history when real interest rates have been significantly negative.<b>High liquidity is a major, even the most critical, factor.</b>。 If calculated quantitatively using the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has room for approximately 130 basis points to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans. Their potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or the pandemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from recess on September 15, it can begin negotiating and discussing the details of the $3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9-15, 2021\"), and whether tax increases will actually be involved will have a clearer picture. If things go smoothly, coupled with the high probability of the $550 billion infrastructure plan being passed, it is expected to have a significant boosting effect on both interest rates and the US dollar. However, tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be a focus of future attention.</b>。 Last week, Treasury Secretary Yellen again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, as the Treasury's current emergency measures will expire in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. The two parties are highly likely to find a compromise, and historically, its actual impact on the market has not been significant.<b>But more importantly, the lifting of the debt ceiling implies an impact on the Ministry of Finance's TGA account, or bond supply.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The TGA account has now fallen from $1.6 trillion in early February to $200 billion, the lowest level since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The renewed increase in TGA accounts not only signifies that the period of significant decline in TGA accounts since April and May, which released liquidity, has passed, but also indicates a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than monetary policy reduction operations that simply reduce the increase, and deserves close attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, while the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has fallen sharply. The background to these changes, as we mentioned in our September monthly report, is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase. Coupled with the significant gains accumulated in the past, fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important:</p><p><b>► epidemic</b>Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic correspond to subsequent economic activity and employment recovery, and also to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b></p><p><b>► inflation</b>The August CPI data, which will be released mid-month (September 14), will also have a significant impact on expectations of volume reduction and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stages, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction has been largely eliminated, but the official launch in December remains the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible that a fine-tuning statement in September will lay the groundwork, especially since the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal Policy and Debt Ceiling</b>The second half of September is a crucial juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans, with potential impacts even greater than those of monetary policy or the pandemic.<b>The renewed increase in the TGA account not only signifies that the period of sharp decline in liquidity release since April and May has passed, but also signifies a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than the QE tapering, which is merely a reduction in incremental quantitative easing.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal policy.</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again. US Treasury yields have remained stable with a slight increase, the US stock market has fallen from its highs, the US dollar has strengthened, and gold has plummeted. These changes are basically consistent with the information we mentioned in our September allocation monthly report, \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9): Short-term Shift to Risk Hedging\", published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background to these changes is mainly that September may face a situation where there is no significant turnaround or catalyst for global growth expectations (the impact of the pandemic is still ongoing, and China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but policy variables may increase (the Federal Reserve FOMC, the US debt ceiling, and fiscal spending). Coupled with the significant gains accumulated previously (September was the weakest month for US stocks throughout the year), volatility cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are important and deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, there is the pandemic. Changes in the pandemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent recovery, but also the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Revisiting the Pace and Impact of the Last US Pandemic (August 30-September 5, 2021)\") and (\"The 'Mystery' of Real Interest Rates Remaining Negative\"), we find that the previous pandemic from early October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and lessons to be learned from the current one.<b>The peak and decline of the pandemic corresponds to a rapid recovery in subsequent economic activity and employment, although there is a certain time lag, and it also corresponds to the fact that real interest rates have basically bottomed out.</b>。</p><p>The latest recent changes are that the US epidemic has shown some signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases, and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched a new epidemic action plan to accelerate mandatory vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan: Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11)\").<b>If the above measures, taken together, have a significant effect on improving the pandemic in the future, it will help alleviate growth concerns and create conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, there is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data, to be released mid-month, will also have a significant impact on expectations of tapering and interest rate trends.</b>The short-term impact of the escalation of the pandemic is twofold. On the one hand, it may further drag down supply chain recovery, leading to supply shortages. For example, the continued escalation of the pandemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has already affected local production. On the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, we have recently noticed a weakening in high-frequency travel and consumption indicators, not to mention that the surge in goods consumption due to fiscal stimulus has also fallen from its peak.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of both supply and demand.</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of the August PMI), inventory (July nominal consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially automobiles, where the supply-demand imbalance is most acute). Moreover, based on the experience of the previous round of the pandemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the main impact was on delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure in April and May was mainly due to the combination of demand stimulus and multiple structural factors such as weather and chips.</p><p>The current market consensus is that inflation will continue to decline month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase market pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce quantitative easing and raise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early tapering has been largely eliminated, but the official start in December remains the baseline scenario.</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of QE reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-22, 2021\"). With only two meetings remaining before the end of the year, in September and early November, it is not impossible for the September fine-tuning statement to lay the groundwork. Moreover, the September interest rate meeting will also include updated economic data and dot plots, making it still a time worth paying close attention to.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices such as Treasury Bond interest rates, small expected changes are sufficient; substantial changes are not necessary.</b>This was the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recent special report, \"The 'Mystery' of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates,\" we discussed the periods since the pandemic and throughout history when real interest rates have been significantly negative.<b>High liquidity is a major, even the most critical, factor.</b>。 If calculated quantitatively using the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has room for approximately 130 basis points to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key juncture for fiscal policies such as the transition between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the $550 billion infrastructure and $3.5 trillion spending plans. Their potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or the pandemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from recess on September 15, it can begin negotiating and discussing the details of the $3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9-15, 2021\"), and whether tax increases will actually be involved will have a clearer picture. If things go smoothly, coupled with the high probability of the $550 billion infrastructure plan being passed, it is expected to have a significant boosting effect on both interest rates and the US dollar. However, tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be a focus of future attention.</b>。 Last week, Treasury Secretary Yellen again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, as the Treasury's current emergency measures will expire in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. The two parties are highly likely to find a compromise, and historically, its actual impact on the market has not been significant.<b>But more importantly, the lifting of the debt ceiling implies an impact on the Ministry of Finance's TGA account, or bond supply.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The TGA account has now fallen from $1.6 trillion in early February to $200 billion, the lowest level since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The renewed increase in TGA accounts not only signifies that the period of significant decline in TGA accounts since April and May, which released liquidity, has passed, but also indicates a marginal increase in bond supply. This may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates, and the US dollar than monetary policy reduction operations that simply reduce the increase, and deserves close attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景,如我们在9月月报中提示的,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面,叠加此前积累了较多涨幅,因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多,几个变化较为重要:\n►疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀,月中(9月14日)将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果,上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议(9月21~22日),提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点:9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量:疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌,这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报(2021-9)短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂(疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势)、但政策变数却可能增多的局面(美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出),叠加此前积累了较多涨幅(9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份),因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间,有几个变化较为重要,值得密切关注:\n一是疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在(《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》)和(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)中分析,上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处,疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复,虽然存在一定时滞,同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是,美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象,新增、重症和死亡都是如此,同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划(《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪(9月11日)》),如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话,那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀(9月14日),月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的,一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张,例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产,但另一方面也会造成需求的回落,例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱,更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落,因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是,近期我们注意到供应链(如8月PMI的交付时间)、库存(7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存)、产能利用率(特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车)都出现了改善迹象,而且根据上一轮疫情的经验,疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率,4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落(0.4%vs. 7月的0.5%),如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议(9月21~22日),经历了近期一系列的变化后,提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形(《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么?》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》)。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下,9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息,因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是,对于资产价格如国债利率而言,预期上的微小变化已经足够,并非需要等到实质性的改变,2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中,提到疫情以来,以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期,高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话,实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如,9月15日参议院休假回来以后,就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论(《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远?2021年8月9日~8月15日》),而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利,叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过,对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果,但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外,债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限,当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心,两党大概率会找到妥协方案,从历史上来看,对市场的实际影响也不大,但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元,这也是2019年9月以来的新低,已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作,值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185423,"gmtCreate":1631457276962,"gmtModify":1676530550963,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185423","repostId":"2166303116","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166303116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631450460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166303116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 20:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Which funds are the most popular among fund investors?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166303116","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":" 今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。","content":"<p><div>Brother Z is a top-notch financial manager. This weekend, as usual, Brother Z will share some thoughts on fund investment. Since the column was launched, I have indeed made quite a few friends who follow funds. Many people have asked Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Image source: Photostock.cn) However, after seeing Brother Z's \"live trading portfolio\", they didn't seem to be very interested. One important reason is that the net asset value of these funds has increased significantly this year, and buying them now is likely to be at a high level. Conversely, Brother Z's \"facing the wall and reflecting on his mistakes\" combination seems even more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which funds are the most popular among fund investors?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich funds are the most popular among fund investors?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 20:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Brother Z is a top-notch financial manager. This weekend, as usual, Brother Z will share some thoughts on fund investment. Since the column was launched, I have indeed made quite a few friends who follow funds. Many people have asked Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Image source: Photostock.cn) However, after seeing Brother Z's \"live trading portfolio\", they didn't seem to be very interested. One important reason is that the net asset value of these funds has increased significantly this year, and buying them now is likely to be at a high level. Conversely, Brother Z's \"facing the wall and reflecting on his mistakes\" combination seems even more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b316935034311b351e6e3b3c20c27e8","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2166303116","content_text":"Z哥 理财不二牛 \n 今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。\n 栏目推出以来,身边关注基金的朋友也确实不少。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?\n\n (图片来源:摄图网)\n 不过,当他们看了Z哥的“实盘组合”之后,似乎感兴趣的并不多。其中一个很重要的原因就是,这些基金的净值在今年都有很大的涨幅,现在去买,很可能会买在高位。相反,Z哥的“面壁思过”组合,似乎还更受欢迎一些。\n 那么,现在到底哪些基金,是基民们最喜爱的呢?\n 其实,要回答这个问题也很简单。现在,很多基民喜欢在支付宝平台上购买基金,这是这两年形成的新趋势,因为支付宝这个平台做得太大了。从以前买余额宝,过度到现在大量基民通过支付宝买基金,也就是这一两年时间的事情,最主要的原因是方便。\n 而支付宝上有一个功能,随时会公布基金的“周销量TOP”,也就是销量排行榜。通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?\n 虽然Z哥还没有在支付宝上买过基金,但周末Z哥看了一下支付宝发现,本周销量冠军是葛兰管理的中欧医疗健康混合C,购买人数超过30万人。排名第二的是天弘永利债券B,这只债券基金,收益稳定,但并非Z哥喜爱的品种,这里不多说。\n 而排名第三的,则是大名鼎鼎的刘彦春管理的景顺长城新兴成长混合,超20万人购买。排名第四的是“坤坤”张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选,也有超过10万人购买。\n 此外,排名靠前的还有刘彦春管理的景顺长城鼎益混合(超6万人购买);谢治宇管理的兴全合润混合(超6万人购买);以及周蔚文管理的中欧新趋势混合(超5万人购买)。\n 从这个数据不难看出,通过支付宝平台购买的基金,最多的还是市场中顶流基金经理管理的基金,这和基金今年的业绩情况,似乎没有太直接的关系。而Z哥平时关注的那些业绩非常好的基金,却很少受到普通基民的青睐。\n 说实话,这些基金,虽然从过往业绩,还有基金经理的能力来看,都是很好的,不然也不可能去管理那么大规模的基金。但是在今年的市场环境下,明星产品规模的大幅增长,不但不能提升产品的投资收益业绩,反而可能会加大基金经理的管理难度。\n\n Z哥又用WIND统计了今年中报,基金净申购额的排名,其实情况也差不多。偏股型混合基金中(剔除今年新成立的基金),净申购额排名第一的依然是张坤的易方达蓝筹精选,净申购61.68亿份,而刘彦春的景顺长城新兴成长净申购60亿份,谢治宇的兴全合润净申购46亿份;葛兰的中欧医疗健康混合A净申购32.69亿份,中欧医疗健康混合C净申购20亿。\n 相对而言,广发基金的中生代基金经理林英睿管理的广发价值领先算是一个另类,该基金今年上半年的净申购额达到44.3亿份,排进了混合基金的净申购额前十。\n 相反,我们再看看其他那些今年业绩排名顶尖的基金,他们的净申购情况是如何的。\n 比如信诚新兴产业混合,今年以来收益102%,排名第一,但上半年净申购额只有3.3亿份,依然是规模较小的基金。\n 同样今年收益超过100%的长城行业轮动,今年上半年净申购额也只有1.48亿份。而另一只今年收益顶尖的金鹰民族新兴混合,今年上半年的净申购额只有6000多万份。\n 总结下来,今年最能赚钱的基金,却并没有帮多少基民赚到钱。并不是基金经理不够努力,而是基民们不愿意“上车”。\n Z哥觉得,现在基民买基金,还是存在一些误区,这个误区可能也和炒股是一样的。\n 误区一\n 买低不买高,买跌不买涨。\n 总觉得基金净值涨高了,风险就一定比净值低的风险大。看基金的净值曲线,就像看股价走势图一样,跌到下面的才安全。\n 误区二\n 羊群效应。\n 总觉得大家都买的,就一定是好基金,只要跟着明星基金经理走,问题就不大。但是,在今年的行情下,追星似的投基,效果并不理想,浪费时间,也浪费了今年的行情。只愿意买别人推荐的热门基金,不考虑自身情况的盲目跟从,并不一定能带来期待的投资收益,反而可能是一种比较危险的投资行为。\n 误区三\n 对长期价值投资的误解。\n 很多股民,如今改变身份,摇身一变成了基民。似乎只要买基金,长期持有不做调整,就坚守了长期价值投资理念。但实际上,Z哥认为这是对长期价值投资理念的误解。长期价值投资,并不等于“躺平”,而是通过不断学习,努力提升自己的能力范围,该调整投资思路的时候,还是要积极应对。\n 最后,Z哥给大家汇报一下目前“投基Z世代”推出的两个组合目前的收益情况供大家参考。\n 其中,“Z哥实盘”组合推出以来(9月2日创建)收益5.46%,跑赢同期大盘。\n\n\n\n 另外一个“面壁思过”的模拟组合(9月6日创建),创建以来略微亏了0.32%。当然还是那句话,投资基金,不必过于看重短期业绩。\n\n\n\n (风险提示:权益基金属于高风险品种,投资需谨慎。本资料不作为任何法律文件,资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本人不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下,本人不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。我国基金运作时间较短,不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。定投过往业绩不代表未来表现,投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。\n 投资者在投资基金之前,请仔细阅读基金的《基金合同》、《招募说明书》等基金法律文件,全面认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性,充分考虑自身的风险承受能力,在了解产品或者服务情况、听取适当性意见的基础上,理性判断市场,根据自身的投资目标、期限、投资经验、资产状况等因素谨慎做出投资决策,独立承担投资风险。市场有风险,入市需谨慎。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。)\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:杨红卜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.6,"BABA":0.64,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185278,"gmtCreate":1631457253094,"gmtModify":1676530550955,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185278","repostId":"1195505573","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881392033,"gmtCreate":1631289510522,"gmtModify":1676530522410,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881392033","repostId":"1170461022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889516181,"gmtCreate":1631157604043,"gmtModify":1676530483046,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889516181","repostId":"2166229313","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166229313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631150284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166229313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve slows its Taper pace, putting downward pressure on crude oil.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166229313","media":"格隆汇","summary":"随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。","content":"<p><html><body><span>International crude oil prices have been generally strong recently due to a temporary slowdown in Federal Reserve Taper expectations and disruptions caused by hurricanes.</span><span>However, as the positive news gradually materializes, the driving force for further increases in oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Federal Reserve slows Taper pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations, with an increase of only 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021, and far below the expected 730,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls in July was revised upward from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate in August was 5.2%, in line with expectations. U.S. non-farm payroll data is considered an important reference indicator for changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The August data differed significantly from expectations, leading the market to believe that the Fed's tapering pace may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, the Federal Reserve also did not specify a specific timetable for Taper, which weakened market concerns about short-term liquidity tightening. the US Dollar Index also experienced a continuous decline, providing significant support for the price movements of commodities such as crude oil. However, with the continued global economic recovery and rising inflation, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually tapers its bond purchases. This also means that liquidity will tend to tighten overall in the future, which will be beneficial to the US dollar and negative to commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Elimination of uncertainty on the supply side</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>In early September, the OPEC+ meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would remain unchanged, with OPEC+ oil-producing countries expected to grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day over the next 8-12 months. This further eliminated uncertainty on the crude oil supply side, and the production policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly before the end of the year, with overall production increasing steadily. However, the gradual exit from production cuts and the increase in production baselines next year will still put some pressure on the oil market supply.</span></p><p><span>In addition, the restoration of Iranian crude oil supplies has been delayed due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, but Iran has stated that it is prepared to increase oil production to the highest possible level once the unilateral US sanctions are lifted to compensate for the huge losses caused by the unilateral US sanctions. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and exports have increased significantly, reaching 2.5 million barrels per day in July, a new high in nearly two years. However, since export channels have not yet been fully opened, Iran's supply will remain limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida damages oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>In late August, Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast, causing water and power outages and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, 99 oil and gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region were still evacuated, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) was shut down, limiting refinery processing demand. Currently, the United States is entering a seasonal off-season for consumption, which will reduce demand for end-user refined oil products and refinery crude oil processing, and lead to an accumulation cycle on the inventory side. The possibility of another hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast region in the future cannot be ruled out. Hurricanes, combined with seasonal consumption factors, will further suppress demand in the US market.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, as the short-term positive factors gradually materialize, crude oil will face downward pressure. In the medium term, tightening monetary policy and weakening seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve slows its Taper pace, putting downward pressure on crude oil.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve slows its Taper pace, putting downward pressure on crude oil.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><span>International crude oil prices have been generally strong recently due to a temporary slowdown in Federal Reserve Taper expectations and disruptions caused by hurricanes.</span><span>However, as the positive news gradually materializes, the driving force for further increases in oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Federal Reserve slows Taper pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations, with an increase of only 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021, and far below the expected 730,000. The number of new non-farm payrolls in July was revised upward from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate in August was 5.2%, in line with expectations. U.S. non-farm payroll data is considered an important reference indicator for changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The August data differed significantly from expectations, leading the market to believe that the Fed's tapering pace may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, the Federal Reserve also did not specify a specific timetable for Taper, which weakened market concerns about short-term liquidity tightening. the US Dollar Index also experienced a continuous decline, providing significant support for the price movements of commodities such as crude oil. However, with the continued global economic recovery and rising inflation, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually tapers its bond purchases. This also means that liquidity will tend to tighten overall in the future, which will be beneficial to the US dollar and negative to commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Elimination of uncertainty on the supply side</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>In early September, the OPEC+ meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would remain unchanged, with OPEC+ oil-producing countries expected to grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day over the next 8-12 months. This further eliminated uncertainty on the crude oil supply side, and the production policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly before the end of the year, with overall production increasing steadily. However, the gradual exit from production cuts and the increase in production baselines next year will still put some pressure on the oil market supply.</span></p><p><span>In addition, the restoration of Iranian crude oil supplies has been delayed due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, but Iran has stated that it is prepared to increase oil production to the highest possible level once the unilateral US sanctions are lifted to compensate for the huge losses caused by the unilateral US sanctions. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and exports have increased significantly, reaching 2.5 million barrels per day in July, a new high in nearly two years. However, since export channels have not yet been fully opened, Iran's supply will remain limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida damages oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>In late August, Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast, causing water and power outages and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, 99 oil and gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region were still evacuated, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) was shut down, limiting refinery processing demand. Currently, the United States is entering a seasonal off-season for consumption, which will reduce demand for end-user refined oil products and refinery crude oil processing, and lead to an accumulation cycle on the inventory side. The possibility of another hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast region in the future cannot be ruled out. Hurricanes, combined with seasonal consumption factors, will further suppress demand in the US market.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, as the short-term positive factors gradually materialize, crude oil will face downward pressure. In the medium term, tightening monetary policy and weakening seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/apply/126180_20190115/column_article_file_20190115155141320.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2166229313","content_text":"美联储Taper预期暂时放缓以及受飓风因素扰动,国际原油价格近期整体偏强运行。不过,随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。美联储放缓Taper步伐近期公布的美国8月非农就业数据不及预期,数据仅录得增加23.5万人,创2021年1月以来最小增幅,远低于预期的73万人。而7月非农新增就业人数从94.3万人上修至105万人,同时8月失业率录得5.2%,与预期持平。美国非农就业数据被视为美联储货币政策变化的重要参考指标,8月数据与预期差距较大,令市场认为美联储Taper步伐或放缓。然而,在此前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,美联储方面同样没有明确Taper的具体时间表,这使得市场对短期流动性收紧的担忧减弱,美元指数也出现连续下跌,对原油等商品走势形成明显支撑。不过,随着全球经济持续复苏以及通胀上升,美联储未来逐步缩减购债规模只是时间问题,这也意味着流动性未来整体会趋于收紧,届时将利多美元、利空商品。供应端的不确定性消除9月初,OPEC+会议宣布维持此前的增产计划不变,8—12个月OPEC+产油国将以总计40万桶/日的速度稳定增长,这进一步消除了原油供应端的不确定性,年底前产油国产量政策预计不会有较大变动,整体将呈现稳定增产的状态。不过,明年逐步退出减产以及提高产量基线,仍会给油市供应带来一定压力。此外,由于美伊谈判陷入僵局,伊朗原油供给的恢复出现延迟,但伊朗方面表示,一旦美国政府单方面的制裁被解除,伊朗准备将石油产量提高到可能的最高水平,以补偿美国单方面制裁造成的巨大损失。今年上半年,伊朗原油产量和出口量已显著增长,7月产量达到250万桶/日,为近两年来新高,但由于出口通道仍未完全打开,所以未来伊朗供给仍将受限。飓风艾达破坏石油设施 8月底,飓风“艾达”侵袭了美湾地区,并带来停水、停电以及石油设施的破坏。截至本周一,美湾地区共有99个石油、天然气生产平台仍处于撤离状态,同时有83.87%的原油产量(或153万桶/日)处于关闭状态,炼厂加工需求受限。目前,美国进入季节性消费淡季,终端成品油需求及炼厂原油加工需求将出现减少,库存端进入累积周期。未来不排除美湾地区再遭飓风侵袭的可能,飓风叠加季节性消费因素,美国市场需求会进一步受到抑制。综合以上分析,短线利好逐步兑现后,原油面临回调压力。中期来看,货币层面大方向收紧以及石油季节性消费弱化将持续压制原油价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"USO":1,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UCO":1,"DXD":0.6,"QMmain":1,"NQmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DUG":0.6,".DJI":1,"SSO":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UWTIF":1,"CLmain":1,"BZmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SCO":1,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DWT":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880328398,"gmtCreate":1631021741114,"gmtModify":1676530444509,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880328398","repostId":"2165912804","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165912804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631018943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165912804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 20:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Cold Thoughts on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Expectation Guidance or Camera Choice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165912804","media":"格隆汇","summary":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周,会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调,并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场","content":"<p>In the blink of an eye, a week has passed since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Pandemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey much unexpected incremental information. Regarding the market's concern about the tapering of asset purchases (Taper), Powell did not give a clear timeline, but he said, \"If the economy develops roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>How the US exit from ultra-loose monetary policy in the post-pandemic era will unfold and how it will affect global financial markets are topics of continued concern to economists and investors worldwide. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to understand the core factors behind the underlying camera's decisions? Since the 2008 financial crisis, the FED has accumulated a wealth of experience in exiting this path, which is worth looking to history for guidance for the future. We chose to try to objectively explore future exit paths and probabilities after the post-meeting uproar subsided.</b></p><p><h3>01</h3><h3>The US pandemic has repeatedly dragged down economic recovery.</h3>The recurrence of the pandemic remains one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta variant virus has continued to spread, rapidly spreading in emerging market countries surrounding India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current outbreak of the epidemic in the United States has begun, with daily new confirmed cases rising rapidly and daily new deaths also showing a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current epidemic in the United States has not yet shown clear signs of peaking and declining. The recurring pandemic has dragged down consumer spending and the recovery of the service sector. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service sector PMI is still in the expansion range, it has declined sharply for three consecutive months.</p><p><b>The global pandemic is currently spreading simultaneously with accelerated vaccination, a phenomenon particularly evident in the United States.</b>According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the population in the United States had received one dose of the vaccine and 48.2% had received two doses of the vaccine. Compared to European countries where the proportion of the population receiving one dose of the vaccine is higher than 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Furthermore, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed significantly since April, but since the outbreak of this round of the epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of American residents to get vaccinated has increased, and the US government also plans to begin providing booster shots in September. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to relatively low vaccination rates, there are significant regional differences in vaccination rates among U.S. residents. Republican-led states have significantly lower vaccination rates than Democratic-led states, and states with lower vaccination rates are also areas with more severe recurrences in this round of the epidemic. Referring to the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face a situation where vaccine popularization and the continued spread of the virus coexist in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US reports new confirmed cases and deaths in a single day, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: Significant regional differentiation in vaccination in the United States, CDC</p><p><h3>02</h3><h3>The US economy is still far from fully recovering; restoring the domestic economic cycle is key.</h3><b>The US economy is still far from a full recovery. The resurgence of the pandemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus pandemic will likely lead to a marginal slowdown in US economic growth momentum in the third quarter.</b>The United States implemented three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus programs after the pandemic, especially direct subsidies to households, which were key to the rapid recovery of the US economy in this round. Consumer spending by U.S. residents accounts for approximately 68% of its GDP, providing a relatively stable positive month-on-month boost to GDP. Therefore, as special fiscal subsidies for the pandemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. consumer spending is a significant uncertainty regarding whether U.S. economic growth will be stable and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated in the second half of the year.</p><p>The sustainability of U.S. consumer spending can be observed by tracking the domestic circulation of employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. consumer confidence and inflation expectations. The U.S. added 943,000 non-farm payrolls in July, bringing the total number of new jobs added in May and June to 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service sector has continued to improve, with overall non-farm payrolls recovering to about the 96th percentile of pre-pandemic levels. However, the U.S. job market still faces a supply shortage. The labor force participation rate in July was 61.7%, compared to 63.3% before the pandemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared to only about 5 million before the pandemic, indicating that companies have strong demand for labor but weak willingness to work.<b>The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter, and with the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment benefits due to the pandemic, the labor supply is expected to be further released.</b></p><p><b>With the continued improvement of the US job market, labor wage income will continue to support the income of US residents, and if income growth is not weak, residents' consumption expenditures will remain guaranteed in the fourth quarter.</b>U.S. residents' income rose 1.11% month-on-month in July, with personal transfer payments contributing 0.60% and employee compensation contributing 0.54%. Wage income contributed three consecutive months of growth, and wage income has shown strong month-on-month growth this year. U.S. household spending fell 0.27% month-on-month in July, with service consumption down 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption down 2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption down 0.38% month-on-month, reflecting a shift in the focus of U.S. household consumption from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for consuming durable goods will cool down with the expiration of fiscal subsidies due to the pandemic. On the other hand, with the widespread availability of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still considerable room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.</p><p><b>Regarding inflation, the continued recovery of supply-side production capacity in the United States and the changing structure of consumer spending on the demand side are both helping to alleviate the current structural pressures on inflation in the United States.</b>The US CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month, a significant drop from the peak growth rate in April, reducing the pressure on inflationary growth month-on-month. Post-pandemic inflation in the United States has shown significant structural divergence, with price growth pressures mainly concentrated in certain industries, such as automobiles and transportation services, where supply and demand imbalances are severe. Looking ahead, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further alleviate the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for commodity price growth to decline. However, as residents' consumption shifts from goods to services, it may lead to high short-term price growth in the service sector, and high inflation growth may continue for a period of time. In the medium to long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the US job market tends to balance, the pressure on overall wage growth in the labor force may ease. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Index, which examines the long-term wage income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is not much different from that before the pandemic. Overall, the high inflation growth rate is likely to be temporary, and the medium- to long-term inflation center will return to the Federal Reserve's desired range. We need to pay close attention to the disturbances caused by uncertainties.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The US job market continues to recover, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: US residents' consumption structure shifts from goods to consumption, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Significant divergence in US inflation structure, Bloomberg</p><p><h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to launch, with a special focus on US fiscal policy.</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Pandemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27, maintaining a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and not conveying much unexpected incremental information. Regarding the market's concern about the tapering of asset purchases (Taper), Powell did not provide a clear timeline, but he stated, \"If economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>In other words, if the US job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of high inflationary growth in the short term eases, then it is highly likely that Taper will begin this year.</b>Recently, several members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed their support for launching Taper to the market, and the market has already fully anticipated this. Given that the Federal Reserve has returned to a data-dependent model and that monetary policy adjustments are based on already achieved economic data, we believe that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of special pandemic subsidies, that is, to wait to observe the employment data for September and October. Therefore, the baseline scenario for our judgment is that the September FOMC meeting will give a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting will announce the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting will initiate Taper. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect the scenario to be consistent with the benchmark scenario, largely avoiding a repeat of the \"tapering panic\" of 2013.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole meeting<b>\"The timing and pace of the upcoming tapering of asset purchases does not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more stringent test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. At the July FOMC press conference, Powell stated that \"ideally, we will not continue to raise interest rates while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the fact that more than a year has passed since the Fed ended its last round of asset purchases and the first rate hike, our baseline scenario is that the Fed's current rate hike will not begin earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.</b>Admittedly, there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike, and the U.S. economy will still face many uncertainties and disturbances during this period, such as the pandemic, the development of vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that there are still 6 million workers in the U.S. job market who have not yet returned to work, of which 5 million are from the service sector, which has been severely impacted by the pandemic, and the recovery of the current labor force participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy fully recovers from the impact of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has a need to keep interest rates low and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the Federal Reserve's previous attempt to normalize monetary policy, market expectations of rapid interest rate increases often caused significant disruptions to financial markets, especially amplified volatility in US stocks, which was detrimental to the Federal Reserve maintaining financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve will cautiously and fully communicate its rate hike plan with the market in the future, and rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is currently focusing on.</b></p><p>The market currently has relatively full expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and fiscal policy may be the focus of market attention recently, which may bring certain constraints to the Fed's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan, including $550 billion in new spending, with a total spending period of approximately five years. The plan has a high probability of passing the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks earlier, the Senate had passed the budget plan framework, meaning that Democrats could bypass Republicans and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold midterm elections in 2022. Prior to that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate its massive fiscal stimulus plan, leveraging the Democratic majority in both the House and Senate. This plan will include infrastructure investment and livelihood security, as well as raising taxes on businesses and high-income groups.<b>Overall, the Biden administration's aggressive fiscal plan will increase U.S. government debt pressure and may constrain the Federal Reserve's exit from its loose monetary policy.</b>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by a net $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by a net $2.79 trillion, accounting for 58.33% of the net increase in U.S. Treasury Bond. The Fed's asset purchases had a much greater impact on the U.S. Treasury Bond market than before the pandemic. In particular, the Fed increased its purchases of inflation-compensated bonds, which to some extent lowered the real interest rate of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Prior to that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the advancement of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus packages and the negotiation over the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on financial markets.<b>Until the dust settles on the new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.</b></p><p>In summary, our basic outlook for the Federal Reserve's next stage of monetary policy is as follows: if the U.S. job market, especially service sector employment, recovers steadily from August to November, with an average monthly increase of around 700,000 to 800,000 non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the start of Taper. Based on market consensus expectations, the Federal Reserve will reduce its Treasury Bond purchases by $10 billion and its MBS purchases by $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of $80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS, and considering the pace at which the Fed completed Taper in 2014, the Fed may take 8-10 months to complete this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the pandemic and the recovery of the job market. If the US pandemic deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the job market recovery is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the start of Taper.<b>Furthermore, the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to begin tapering are already high, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.</b>If the Biden administration's proposed new round of fiscal stimulus package exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow its tightening pace, taking adjustments such as reducing the monthly scale reduction and extending the time interval between adjustments and scale reductions. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the market is currently focusing on. If the US economic recovery meets current strong expectations, the first rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg's WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, with the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 being only 0.8, meaning that the Federal Reserve will still keep the current interest rate unchanged at that time. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed making a rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting will be greater than 50% for the first time. During the period when the Federal Reserve completes its tapering of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, there are many uncertainties facing global economic growth, especially the development of the pandemic and the direction of policies, which require close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Image: WIRP, Bloomberg</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: CME FedWatch Tool, CME</p><p><h3>04</h3><h3>A Review of Historical Experience: The 2013 QE3 Taper and the 2015 rate hike Review</h3><b>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015</b></p><p>After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of quantitative easing (QE). When QE1 (November 2008 - March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010 - June 2011) were announced, the scale and pace of purchases were clearly defined, so their exit was fully anticipated. However, when QE3 was initiated, the scale of purchases and the timing of exit were not specified, only stating that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed against a backdrop of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). It wasn't until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, that the Federal Reserve first released a Taper signal, stating, \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be prepared to accelerate or slow its pace of asset purchases in order to maintain appropriately accommodative policy.\" During a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated that he would \"consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the coming interest rate meetings,\" further sending a Taper signal. Subsequently, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"we will continue to maintain the original scale of bond purchases,\" and that \"if economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" At the October policy meeting, committee members began discussing the timing and pace of Taper, but did not give a clear signal of unity.</p><p>At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continued to make progress, the labor market continued to make significant cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations remained stable. Based on this, it decided to taper its bond purchases starting next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially began the Taper process, announcing a $10 billion reduction at each meeting (including $5 billion in UST and $5 billion in MBS), until it announced the end of QE3 at its October meeting of the same year. During the Taper process from 2013 to 2014, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of code reduction, and 10 months from the official launch of Taper to the end of QE.</p><p>At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, participants expected the rate hike process to begin within 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate target range to 0.25-0.50, initiating its first rate hike process since the financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2. The previous round of Taper and the economic environment in rate hike</b></p><p>The 2013 Taper was conducted based on the conditions that the US economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually recovered, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the US GDP growth rate began to rise steadily in 2012, with an annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimism about the economic growth rate in Q1 2013 at a congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Although economic growth slowed slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it rebounded again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out and rebound at the end of 2012, returning above the expansion/contraction threshold, and reached its peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had already far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level. Although the non-manufacturing PMI is still lower than before the financial crisis, it has remained stable above the expansion-contraction threshold. On the supply side, industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has recovered to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Retail sales on the demand side continued to recover, showing stable positive year-on-year growth and exceeding pre-financial crisis levels at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially retail inventory, which is significantly lower than pre-crisis levels. The real estate market is strengthening, with new home starts and new home sales experiencing high year-on-year growth since 2012.</p><p>The labor market continued to recover, the number of non-farm payrolls steadily increased positively, and the growth rate of non-farm payrolls increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-farm payrolls continued to recover, reaching over 99% in June 2013 and returning to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. However, the job market recovery is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching 6.7% in December 2013, down 1.4 percentage points from before QE3, but still higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 6.5%. Job vacancy rates continue to rise, and the workforce's willingness to work is weak.</p><p>Regarding inflation, inflation has remained below the 2% target since QE3. At its June 2013 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that persistently below-target inflation could pose a risk to economic performance. However, the Federal Reserve believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects the inflation rate to gradually return to the 2% level.</p><p>After QE3 ended in 2014, the US GDP grew by 3.76% in Q1 2015, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate slowed down in Q2-Q3, it still maintained stable growth. The labor market has further recovered, and non-farm payrolls have continued to grow steadily and positively. The unemployment rate fell below the 6.5% target in April 2014, and further decreased by 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remained fluctuating between 62% and 63%. Regarding inflation, although the price index remained sluggish, there were signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve conducted its first rate hike since the crisis began in December 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US economic fundamentals data, data source: wind</p><p><b>3. Asset price performance during the exit of the previous round of easing policies</b></p><p>The market failed to fully anticipate the timing and pace of the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan following the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve first released a Taper signal on May 1, 2013, it triggered panic about tapering. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds rose rapidly by nearly 110 basis points within two months and continued to fluctuate upwards until the market's Taper expectations failed to materialize at the FOMC meeting in September, and US Treasury yields subsequently declined. After the Taper was officially announced on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was rather muted, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising slightly before beginning a year-long decline.</p><p>In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated overall, mainly due to oil prices dragging down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expectations drove up real interest rates, creating a repeated negotiation between the two. After the rate hike began in December 2015, inflation expectations continued to weaken, while real interest rates also turned downward due to weak US economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source: wind</p><p>On May 22, 2013, after Bernanke continued to release Taper signals at a congressional hearing, U.S. stocks fell rapidly, driven by a reduction in panic. After Taper was officially announced in December of the same year, US stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a significant impact on US stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, US stocks continued to rise rapidly. After the rate hike began in December 2015, US stocks rose slightly before falling sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It only rebounded in February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals improved somewhat.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source: wind</p><p><h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Examples of Future Federal Reserve Monetary Policy</h3>Given the uncertainty of the global pandemic, the increasing reliance of US economic growth on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the historically high valuation of US stocks, and the significant volatility in financial markets caused by the lack of communication during the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in 2013, we tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will be very cautious in reducing its asset purchases in the near future, relying more on existing economic data, especially job market data, rather than market expectations for future economic data. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve will communicate fully with the market before beginning to reduce the scale of asset purchases, allowing the market to thoroughly consider and make contingency plans. In the near future, the focus of investor debate will shift from when to launch Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.</p><p>Specifically,<b>First, under the economic benchmark scenario:</b>If the US pandemic is largely under control and the job market continues its steady recovery, with average monthly non-farm payrolls reaching around 700,000 to 800,000 in August and November, and the Biden administration's $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans are implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific details of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting will announce the launch of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by $10 billion and MBS purchases by $5 billion per month, ending this round of asset purchases in 8-10 months. The probability of guiding rate hike expectations before December 2022 is low. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield has slowly climbed to 1.5% this year, gold has fluctuated between $1,700 and $1,900, and US stocks have maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 is unlikely to rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is limited, while the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is generally positive, and the impact on international commodities such as crude oil and copper is generally positive.</p><p><b>Second, in a pessimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the pandemic in the United States is worsening rapidly, hindering the improvement of socio-economic activities, the job market recovery is slower than expected, the fiscal stimulus plan proposed by the Biden administration is being hampered or its implementation may be reduced, and the Federal Reserve will postpone the start of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain in the 1.0-1.2% range this year, gold is expected to break through $1,900, US stocks are rising, and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. This is generally positive for China's 10-year Treasury Bond and for China's equity market.</p><p><b>Third, under an optimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the pandemic in the United States was quickly brought under control, with an average of more than 1 million new non-farm payrolls per month by the end of the year. The US government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved in September and October, and the Federal Reserve may move the start of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to return to 1.7% this year, gold will fall below $1,700, and US stocks will fluctuate at high levels. The impact on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is negative, on China's overvalued equity assets is negative, and on crude oil is positive.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cold Thoughts on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Expectation Guidance or Camera Choice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCold Thoughts on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Expectation Guidance or Camera Choice\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 20:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the blink of an eye, a week has passed since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Pandemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey much unexpected incremental information. Regarding the market's concern about the tapering of asset purchases (Taper), Powell did not give a clear timeline, but he said, \"If the economy develops roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>How the US exit from ultra-loose monetary policy in the post-pandemic era will unfold and how it will affect global financial markets are topics of continued concern to economists and investors worldwide. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to understand the core factors behind the underlying camera's decisions? Since the 2008 financial crisis, the FED has accumulated a wealth of experience in exiting this path, which is worth looking to history for guidance for the future. We chose to try to objectively explore future exit paths and probabilities after the post-meeting uproar subsided.</b></p><p><h3>01</h3><h3>The US pandemic has repeatedly dragged down economic recovery.</h3>The recurrence of the pandemic remains one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta variant virus has continued to spread, rapidly spreading in emerging market countries surrounding India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current outbreak of the epidemic in the United States has begun, with daily new confirmed cases rising rapidly and daily new deaths also showing a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current epidemic in the United States has not yet shown clear signs of peaking and declining. The recurring pandemic has dragged down consumer spending and the recovery of the service sector. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service sector PMI is still in the expansion range, it has declined sharply for three consecutive months.</p><p><b>The global pandemic is currently spreading simultaneously with accelerated vaccination, a phenomenon particularly evident in the United States.</b>According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the population in the United States had received one dose of the vaccine and 48.2% had received two doses of the vaccine. Compared to European countries where the proportion of the population receiving one dose of the vaccine is higher than 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Furthermore, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed significantly since April, but since the outbreak of this round of the epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of American residents to get vaccinated has increased, and the US government also plans to begin providing booster shots in September. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to relatively low vaccination rates, there are significant regional differences in vaccination rates among U.S. residents. Republican-led states have significantly lower vaccination rates than Democratic-led states, and states with lower vaccination rates are also areas with more severe recurrences in this round of the epidemic. Referring to the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face a situation where vaccine popularization and the continued spread of the virus coexist in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US reports new confirmed cases and deaths in a single day, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: Significant regional differentiation in vaccination in the United States, CDC</p><p><h3>02</h3><h3>The US economy is still far from fully recovering; restoring the domestic economic cycle is key.</h3><b>The US economy is still far from a full recovery. The resurgence of the pandemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus pandemic will likely lead to a marginal slowdown in US economic growth momentum in the third quarter.</b>The United States implemented three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus programs after the pandemic, especially direct subsidies to households, which were key to the rapid recovery of the US economy in this round. Consumer spending by U.S. residents accounts for approximately 68% of its GDP, providing a relatively stable positive month-on-month boost to GDP. Therefore, as special fiscal subsidies for the pandemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. consumer spending is a significant uncertainty regarding whether U.S. economic growth will be stable and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated in the second half of the year.</p><p>The sustainability of U.S. consumer spending can be observed by tracking the domestic circulation of employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. consumer confidence and inflation expectations. The U.S. added 943,000 non-farm payrolls in July, bringing the total number of new jobs added in May and June to 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service sector has continued to improve, with overall non-farm payrolls recovering to about the 96th percentile of pre-pandemic levels. However, the U.S. job market still faces a supply shortage. The labor force participation rate in July was 61.7%, compared to 63.3% before the pandemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared to only about 5 million before the pandemic, indicating that companies have strong demand for labor but weak willingness to work.<b>The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter, and with the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment benefits due to the pandemic, the labor supply is expected to be further released.</b></p><p><b>With the continued improvement of the US job market, labor wage income will continue to support the income of US residents, and if income growth is not weak, residents' consumption expenditures will remain guaranteed in the fourth quarter.</b>U.S. residents' income rose 1.11% month-on-month in July, with personal transfer payments contributing 0.60% and employee compensation contributing 0.54%. Wage income contributed three consecutive months of growth, and wage income has shown strong month-on-month growth this year. U.S. household spending fell 0.27% month-on-month in July, with service consumption down 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption down 2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption down 0.38% month-on-month, reflecting a shift in the focus of U.S. household consumption from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for consuming durable goods will cool down with the expiration of fiscal subsidies due to the pandemic. On the other hand, with the widespread availability of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still considerable room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.</p><p><b>Regarding inflation, the continued recovery of supply-side production capacity in the United States and the changing structure of consumer spending on the demand side are both helping to alleviate the current structural pressures on inflation in the United States.</b>The US CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month, a significant drop from the peak growth rate in April, reducing the pressure on inflationary growth month-on-month. Post-pandemic inflation in the United States has shown significant structural divergence, with price growth pressures mainly concentrated in certain industries, such as automobiles and transportation services, where supply and demand imbalances are severe. Looking ahead, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further alleviate the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for commodity price growth to decline. However, as residents' consumption shifts from goods to services, it may lead to high short-term price growth in the service sector, and high inflation growth may continue for a period of time. In the medium to long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the US job market tends to balance, the pressure on overall wage growth in the labor force may ease. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Index, which examines the long-term wage income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is not much different from that before the pandemic. Overall, the high inflation growth rate is likely to be temporary, and the medium- to long-term inflation center will return to the Federal Reserve's desired range. We need to pay close attention to the disturbances caused by uncertainties.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The US job market continues to recover, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: US residents' consumption structure shifts from goods to consumption, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Significant divergence in US inflation structure, Bloomberg</p><p><h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to launch, with a special focus on US fiscal policy.</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Pandemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27, maintaining a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and not conveying much unexpected incremental information. Regarding the market's concern about the tapering of asset purchases (Taper), Powell did not provide a clear timeline, but he stated, \"If economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to slow down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>In other words, if the US job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of high inflationary growth in the short term eases, then it is highly likely that Taper will begin this year.</b>Recently, several members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed their support for launching Taper to the market, and the market has already fully anticipated this. Given that the Federal Reserve has returned to a data-dependent model and that monetary policy adjustments are based on already achieved economic data, we believe that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of special pandemic subsidies, that is, to wait to observe the employment data for September and October. Therefore, the baseline scenario for our judgment is that the September FOMC meeting will give a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting will announce the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting will initiate Taper. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect the scenario to be consistent with the benchmark scenario, largely avoiding a repeat of the \"tapering panic\" of 2013.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole meeting<b>\"The timing and pace of the upcoming tapering of asset purchases does not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more stringent test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. At the July FOMC press conference, Powell stated that \"ideally, we will not continue to raise interest rates while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the fact that more than a year has passed since the Fed ended its last round of asset purchases and the first rate hike, our baseline scenario is that the Fed's current rate hike will not begin earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.</b>Admittedly, there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike, and the U.S. economy will still face many uncertainties and disturbances during this period, such as the pandemic, the development of vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that there are still 6 million workers in the U.S. job market who have not yet returned to work, of which 5 million are from the service sector, which has been severely impacted by the pandemic, and the recovery of the current labor force participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy fully recovers from the impact of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has a need to keep interest rates low and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the Federal Reserve's previous attempt to normalize monetary policy, market expectations of rapid interest rate increases often caused significant disruptions to financial markets, especially amplified volatility in US stocks, which was detrimental to the Federal Reserve maintaining financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve will cautiously and fully communicate its rate hike plan with the market in the future, and rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is currently focusing on.</b></p><p>The market currently has relatively full expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and fiscal policy may be the focus of market attention recently, which may bring certain constraints to the Fed's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan, including $550 billion in new spending, with a total spending period of approximately five years. The plan has a high probability of passing the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks earlier, the Senate had passed the budget plan framework, meaning that Democrats could bypass Republicans and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold midterm elections in 2022. Prior to that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate its massive fiscal stimulus plan, leveraging the Democratic majority in both the House and Senate. This plan will include infrastructure investment and livelihood security, as well as raising taxes on businesses and high-income groups.<b>Overall, the Biden administration's aggressive fiscal plan will increase U.S. government debt pressure and may constrain the Federal Reserve's exit from its loose monetary policy.</b>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by a net $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by a net $2.79 trillion, accounting for 58.33% of the net increase in U.S. Treasury Bond. The Fed's asset purchases had a much greater impact on the U.S. Treasury Bond market than before the pandemic. In particular, the Fed increased its purchases of inflation-compensated bonds, which to some extent lowered the real interest rate of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Prior to that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the advancement of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus packages and the negotiation over the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on financial markets.<b>Until the dust settles on the new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.</b></p><p>In summary, our basic outlook for the Federal Reserve's next stage of monetary policy is as follows: if the U.S. job market, especially service sector employment, recovers steadily from August to November, with an average monthly increase of around 700,000 to 800,000 non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the start of Taper. Based on market consensus expectations, the Federal Reserve will reduce its Treasury Bond purchases by $10 billion and its MBS purchases by $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of $80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS, and considering the pace at which the Fed completed Taper in 2014, the Fed may take 8-10 months to complete this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the pandemic and the recovery of the job market. If the US pandemic deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the job market recovery is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the start of Taper.<b>Furthermore, the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to begin tapering are already high, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.</b>If the Biden administration's proposed new round of fiscal stimulus package exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow its tightening pace, taking adjustments such as reducing the monthly scale reduction and extending the time interval between adjustments and scale reductions. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the market is currently focusing on. If the US economic recovery meets current strong expectations, the first rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg's WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, with the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 being only 0.8, meaning that the Federal Reserve will still keep the current interest rate unchanged at that time. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed making a rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting will be greater than 50% for the first time. During the period when the Federal Reserve completes its tapering of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, there are many uncertainties facing global economic growth, especially the development of the pandemic and the direction of policies, which require close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Image: WIRP, Bloomberg</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: CME FedWatch Tool, CME</p><p><h3>04</h3><h3>A Review of Historical Experience: The 2013 QE3 Taper and the 2015 rate hike Review</h3><b>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015</b></p><p>After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of quantitative easing (QE). When QE1 (November 2008 - March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010 - June 2011) were announced, the scale and pace of purchases were clearly defined, so their exit was fully anticipated. However, when QE3 was initiated, the scale of purchases and the timing of exit were not specified, only stating that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed against a backdrop of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). It wasn't until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, that the Federal Reserve first released a Taper signal, stating, \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be prepared to accelerate or slow its pace of asset purchases in order to maintain appropriately accommodative policy.\" During a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated that he would \"consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the coming interest rate meetings,\" further sending a Taper signal. Subsequently, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"we will continue to maintain the original scale of bond purchases,\" and that \"if economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" At the October policy meeting, committee members began discussing the timing and pace of Taper, but did not give a clear signal of unity.</p><p>At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continued to make progress, the labor market continued to make significant cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations remained stable. Based on this, it decided to taper its bond purchases starting next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially began the Taper process, announcing a $10 billion reduction at each meeting (including $5 billion in UST and $5 billion in MBS), until it announced the end of QE3 at its October meeting of the same year. During the Taper process from 2013 to 2014, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of code reduction, and 10 months from the official launch of Taper to the end of QE.</p><p>At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, participants expected the rate hike process to begin within 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate target range to 0.25-0.50, initiating its first rate hike process since the financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2. The previous round of Taper and the economic environment in rate hike</b></p><p>The 2013 Taper was conducted based on the conditions that the US economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually recovered, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the US GDP growth rate began to rise steadily in 2012, with an annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimism about the economic growth rate in Q1 2013 at a congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Although economic growth slowed slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it rebounded again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out and rebound at the end of 2012, returning above the expansion/contraction threshold, and reached its peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had already far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level. Although the non-manufacturing PMI is still lower than before the financial crisis, it has remained stable above the expansion-contraction threshold. On the supply side, industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has recovered to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Retail sales on the demand side continued to recover, showing stable positive year-on-year growth and exceeding pre-financial crisis levels at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially retail inventory, which is significantly lower than pre-crisis levels. The real estate market is strengthening, with new home starts and new home sales experiencing high year-on-year growth since 2012.</p><p>The labor market continued to recover, the number of non-farm payrolls steadily increased positively, and the growth rate of non-farm payrolls increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-farm payrolls continued to recover, reaching over 99% in June 2013 and returning to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. However, the job market recovery is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching 6.7% in December 2013, down 1.4 percentage points from before QE3, but still higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 6.5%. Job vacancy rates continue to rise, and the workforce's willingness to work is weak.</p><p>Regarding inflation, inflation has remained below the 2% target since QE3. At its June 2013 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that persistently below-target inflation could pose a risk to economic performance. However, the Federal Reserve believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects the inflation rate to gradually return to the 2% level.</p><p>After QE3 ended in 2014, the US GDP grew by 3.76% in Q1 2015, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate slowed down in Q2-Q3, it still maintained stable growth. The labor market has further recovered, and non-farm payrolls have continued to grow steadily and positively. The unemployment rate fell below the 6.5% target in April 2014, and further decreased by 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remained fluctuating between 62% and 63%. Regarding inflation, although the price index remained sluggish, there were signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve conducted its first rate hike since the crisis began in December 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US economic fundamentals data, data source: wind</p><p><b>3. Asset price performance during the exit of the previous round of easing policies</b></p><p>The market failed to fully anticipate the timing and pace of the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan following the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve first released a Taper signal on May 1, 2013, it triggered panic about tapering. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds rose rapidly by nearly 110 basis points within two months and continued to fluctuate upwards until the market's Taper expectations failed to materialize at the FOMC meeting in September, and US Treasury yields subsequently declined. After the Taper was officially announced on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was rather muted, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising slightly before beginning a year-long decline.</p><p>In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated overall, mainly due to oil prices dragging down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expectations drove up real interest rates, creating a repeated negotiation between the two. After the rate hike began in December 2015, inflation expectations continued to weaken, while real interest rates also turned downward due to weak US economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: US Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source: wind</p><p>On May 22, 2013, after Bernanke continued to release Taper signals at a congressional hearing, U.S. stocks fell rapidly, driven by a reduction in panic. After Taper was officially announced in December of the same year, US stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a significant impact on US stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, US stocks continued to rise rapidly. After the rate hike began in December 2015, US stocks rose slightly before falling sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It only rebounded in February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals improved somewhat.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source: wind</p><p><h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Examples of Future Federal Reserve Monetary Policy</h3>Given the uncertainty of the global pandemic, the increasing reliance of US economic growth on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the historically high valuation of US stocks, and the significant volatility in financial markets caused by the lack of communication during the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in 2013, we tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will be very cautious in reducing its asset purchases in the near future, relying more on existing economic data, especially job market data, rather than market expectations for future economic data. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve will communicate fully with the market before beginning to reduce the scale of asset purchases, allowing the market to thoroughly consider and make contingency plans. In the near future, the focus of investor debate will shift from when to launch Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.</p><p>Specifically,<b>First, under the economic benchmark scenario:</b>If the US pandemic is largely under control and the job market continues its steady recovery, with average monthly non-farm payrolls reaching around 700,000 to 800,000 in August and November, and the Biden administration's $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans are implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific details of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting will announce the launch of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by $10 billion and MBS purchases by $5 billion per month, ending this round of asset purchases in 8-10 months. The probability of guiding rate hike expectations before December 2022 is low. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield has slowly climbed to 1.5% this year, gold has fluctuated between $1,700 and $1,900, and US stocks have maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 is unlikely to rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is limited, while the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is generally positive, and the impact on international commodities such as crude oil and copper is generally positive.</p><p><b>Second, in a pessimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the pandemic in the United States is worsening rapidly, hindering the improvement of socio-economic activities, the job market recovery is slower than expected, the fiscal stimulus plan proposed by the Biden administration is being hampered or its implementation may be reduced, and the Federal Reserve will postpone the start of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain in the 1.0-1.2% range this year, gold is expected to break through $1,900, US stocks are rising, and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. This is generally positive for China's 10-year Treasury Bond and for China's equity market.</p><p><b>Third, under an optimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the pandemic in the United States was quickly brought under control, with an average of more than 1 million new non-farm payrolls per month by the end of the year. The US government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved in September and October, and the Federal Reserve may move the start of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to return to 1.7% this year, gold will fall below $1,700, and US stocks will fluctuate at high levels. The impact on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is negative, on China's overvalued equity assets is negative, and on crude oil is positive.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2165912804","content_text":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周,会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调,并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划(Taper),鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引,但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期,那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”。后疫情时代的美国超宽松货币政策退出之路会如何演绎,会如何影响全球金融市场,是全球经济学家与投资者都持续关注的话题。投资者们是应该跟随着FED的预期引导还是去试图看清深层次相机抉择的核心因素。自08年金融危机以来,FED在退出这条路上其实已经积累了非常丰富的经验,值得我们一起从历史中寻找未来的指引。我们选择在会议之后喧嚣过后,试图客观地找寻未来的退出路径与概率。\n01\n美国疫情反复拖累经济修复\n疫情反复依然是四季度全球经济面临的不确定性之一。二季度以来,全球疫情出现显著反弹,Delta变异病毒持续扩散,先后在印度周边新兴市场国家,及英国、西班牙等发达市场国家迅速扩散。7月以来,美国疫情开启了本轮爆发,单日新增确诊病例快速攀升,单日新增死亡病例也呈现较快的回升趋势,截止8月末,美国本轮疫情尚未明确展现触顶回落的迹象。疫情反复对居民消费和服务业修复造成一定拖累,美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数大幅回落超预期,美国Markit服务业PMI虽仍在扩张区间,但已连续三个月大幅下行。\n当前全球处于疫情持续扩散和疫苗加速接种同时进行的状态,这一现象在美国尤为明显。据美国疾控中心数据,截止8月末,全美接种一针疫苗人口占总人口的61.8%,接种两针疫苗人口占总人口的48.2%,相较于欧洲国家接种一针疫苗人口占比高于70%的水平而言,美国疫苗接种率相对较低。且美国疫苗接种速率自4月以来显著放缓,但7月本轮疫情爆发以来,疫苗接种速率小幅抬升,据媒体报道美国居民接种疫苗的积极性有所提高,美国政府也计划于9月开始提供疫苗加强针。除全民接种率相对较低外,美国居民疫苗接种呈现明显的区域分化,共和党领导州接种率显著低于民主党领导州,接种率较低的州也是本轮疫情反复较为严重的地区。参照高接种率国家如英国、以色列的经验来看,短期内美国将面对疫苗普及和病毒持续传播共存的局面。\n\n图:美国单日新增确诊和死亡病例,Wind\n\n图:美国疫苗接种区域分化明显,CDC\n02\n美国经济完全复苏尚有距离,内循环修复是核心\n当前美国经济距完全复苏尚有距离,疫情的再度反复和疫情特殊财政刺激的退出,大概率使得美国三季度经济增长动能边际放缓。疫后美国进行了三轮大规模财政刺激计划,特别是针对居民端发放的直接补贴,是本轮美国经济快速复苏的关键。美国居民消费支出约占其国内生产总值总额的68%,对国内生产总值有较为稳定的环比正向拉动。因此,当疫情特殊财政补贴逐渐到期后,美国居民消费支出的可持续性,是下半年美国经济增长稳定与否、结构性通胀压力能否缓解的重要不确定性。\n观察美国居民消费支出的可持续性,可以通过跟踪美国居民就业、收入、消费的内循环传导行为,还有美国居民消费信心和对通胀预期的变化。美国7月非农新增就业94.3万人,5月和6月新增就业均上修共计11.9万人,超市场预期。二季度以来,美国服务业就业持续改善,整体非农就业人数已修复至疫情前约96%分位。但美国就业市场依然面临供不应求的局面,7月劳动参与率61.7%,而疫情前为63.3%,6月职位空缺数上升至1007万人,而疫情前仅为500万人左右,说明企业招工需求旺盛但劳动力就业意愿不强。四季度美国就业市场有望持续修复,随着疫苗接种率的提升和疫情特殊失业补贴的到期,劳动力供给有望进一步释放。\n随着美国就业市场的持续改善,劳动力薪资收入对美国居民收入仍有支撑,收入增速不弱则四季度居民消费支出仍有保障。美国7月居民收入环比1.11%,其中个人转移支付收入贡献0.60%,雇员报酬贡献0.54%,薪资收入贡献连续三个月增长,今年以来薪资收入环比增速表现较强。美国7月居民支出环比0.27%,其中服务消费环比1%,耐用品消费环比-2.29%,非耐用品消费环比-0.38%,体现出美国居民消费重心正在由商品转向服务。一方面,居民耐用品消费的热情将随着疫情财政补贴的到期而降温,另一方面,随着疫苗普及和社会活动正常化,餐饮、旅游等服务消费仍有较大的修复空间。\n通胀方面,美国供给端产能持续修复,需求端居民消费结构正在发生变化,均有助于缓解当前美国通胀的结构性压力。美国7月CPI环比0.5%,核心CPI环比0.3%,相较于4月增速高点大幅回落,通胀环比增长压力减少。疫后美国通胀呈现较为明显的结构性分化,价格增长压力主要集中在部分行业,如汽车、运输服务等供需失衡较为严重的行业。往后看,美国工业产出持续修复,制造商延续补库存行为,有望进一步缓解供应紧张压力,商品价格增速有下行空间。但在居民消费由商品转向服务的过程中,可能会带来服务业价格短期高增速的情况,通胀高增速或阶段性持续。中长期来看,若美国就业市场供需关系趋向平衡,劳动力整体薪资增长压力或将有所缓解,参考亚特兰大联储薪资增长指数对各行业长期薪资收入水平的考察,多数行业总收入增长情况同疫情前差异不大。整体来看,通胀高增速大概率是临时的,中长期通胀中枢将回归美联储的合意区间,需密切关注不确定因素的扰动。\n\n图:美国就业市场持续修复,Wind\n\n图:美国居民消费结构由商品转向消费,Wind\n\n图:美国通胀结构分化明显,Bloomberg\n03\nTaper即将开启,特别关注美国财政政策\n美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话,整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调,并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划(Taper),鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引,但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期,那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”,即如果美国就业市场维持良好的修复态势,通胀短期高增速压力有所缓解,那么今年内开启Taper已是大概率事件。近期美联储多位委员均向市场传达了支持开启Taper的观点,市场对此预期已较为充分。考虑到美联储重回数据依赖模式,货币政策调整基于已实现的经济数据,我们判断美联储希望确认就业市场在疫情特殊补助到期后的改善情况,即等待观察9月和10月的就业数据,那么9月FOMC会议给出明确的Taper信号,11月FOMC会议宣布Taper计划,12月FOMC会议开启Taper是我们判断的基准情景。据彭博调查显示,市场投资者普遍预期同基准情景一致,基本避免13年“缩减恐慌”的再度上演。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上表示“即将进行的缩减资产购买的时机和速度,并不传递有关加息时机的直接信号,关于加息问题,我们已经明确表达了一个不同的、且更为严格的测试”,重申Taper和加息之间没有明确的关系。鲍威尔在7月FOMC发布会上曾表示“理想状态下,不会仍然在购买资产的同时提高利率”,参考上一轮美联储结束资产购买和首次加息相隔一年有余,我们判断的基准情景是,美联储本轮加息不会早于2022年四季度。诚然,距离美联储首次加息还有较长的时间,美国经济在此期间仍面临多方面的不确定性扰动,如疫情和疫苗的发展、就业市场的修复等,鲍威尔多次强调目前美国就业市场仍有600万劳动力未能重返岗位,其中500万来自深受疫情冲击的服务部门,且当前劳动参与率的修复表现疲弱。在美国经济尚未从疫情冲击中完全修复前,美联储有压低利率水平的需求,为金融和实体部门提供较低的融资成本。回顾美联储上一轮尝试回归货币政策正常化的过程,市场对利率快速抬升的预期往往对金融市场带来较大的扰动,特别是美股波动放大,不利于美联储维护金融市场稳定和实体部门信心。因此,未来美联储将谨慎且充分地同市场沟通加息计划,当前加息不是市场关注的主要矛盾。\n目前市场对美联储货币政策调整的预期已较为充分,而财政政策或是近期市场关注的焦点,或对美联储货币政策带来一定的约束。8月10日,美国参议院通过了总规模1.2万亿美元的基建计划,其中新增支出5500亿美元,整体开支时间约为5年,该计划在民主党领导的众议院通过概率极大。8月24日,美国众议院以微弱优势通过了3.5万亿美元的预算计划框架,两周前参议院已通过该预算计划框架,意味着民主党可以绕过共和党,通过预算和解流程完成该预算决议的立法。美国将于2022年举行中期选举,在此之前,拜登政府凭借民主党为参众两院多数党的优势加速推行其大规模财政刺激计划的概率极大,包括落实基建投资和民生保障,及提高企业和高收入群体税收。整体而言,拜登政府推行的积极财政计划将加大美国政府债务压力,或约束美联储退出宽松货币政策的节奏。据美国财政部数据,2020年2月至2021年7月,美国适销国债存量净增加4.78万亿美元,在此期间,美联储国债持有额净增加2.79万亿美元,占美国国债净增量的58.33%,美联储资产购买行为对美国国债市场的影响要远大于疫情前,特别是美联储加大了对通胀补偿债券的购买力度,一定程度上压低了长端美债实际利率中枢。美联储将于9月21-22日举行FOMC会议,在此之前美国财政政策的最新进展,包括对1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划的推进、对美国政府债务上限的博弈,都可能对金融市场造成一定冲击。在美国新一轮财政刺激尘埃落定前,美联储保持谨慎观望态度的概率较大,任何超市场预期的鹰派信号都将进一步放大市场波动。\n综前所述,我们对美联储下一阶段货币政策的基本展望是:若美国就业市场,特别是服务业就业在8-11月稳步复苏,即月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下,美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容,12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper。参照市场一致预期判断,美联储将每月减少国债购买100亿美元,减少MBS购买50亿美元,按照当前每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS的购买规模推算,同时参考14年美联储完成Taper的节奏,美联储或将用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划。核心不确定性在于疫情发展和就业市场修复,若四季度美国疫情出现急速恶化、就业市场复苏中断,美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。此外,当前市场对美联储即将开始Taper的预期已然充分,因此关键的影响变量在于减少资产购买的节奏。若拜登政府主张的新一轮财政刺激计划支出规模超预期,美联储或放缓紧缩节奏,采取如减少每月缩减规模、拉长调整缩减规模的时间间隔等调整。至于加息,仍不是当前市场关注的主要矛盾。若美国经济复苏符合当前强势预期,首次加息将不早于2022年四季度。据彭博WIRP统计预测,有投资者认为首次加息可能发生在2022年9月,在2023年1月FOMC会议上累计加息次数仅为0.8,即届时美联储仍将维持当前利率不变;据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具统计预测,投资者认为美联储在2022年12月FOMC会议上加息的概率首次大于50%。在美联储完成缩减购债并衡量加息条件期间,全球经济增长所面临的不确定性因素较多,特别是疫情发展和政策走向,都需密切关注。\n\n图:WIRP,Bloomberg\n\n图:CME FedWatch Tool,CME\n04\n历史经验的回顾:2013年QE3 Taper与2015年加息回顾\n1.2013-2015年政策转向过程\n2008年金融危机后,美联储先后共进行了三次QE。其中QE1(2008年11月-2010年3月)和QE2(2010年8月-2011年6月)宣布时均明确了购买规模和节奏,因此其退出也得到了充分预期。但QE3开启时并未明确购买规模和退出时间,只声明了“资产购买将一直持续,直到在价格稳定的背景下观察到劳动力市场前景有实质性改善”(purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability)。直到2013年5月1日释出的FOMC会议声明中,美联储表示:“当劳动力市场或通胀前景发生变化,FOMC将做好加快或放缓资产购买步伐的准备,以保持政策适当宽松”,首次释放出Taper信号。时任美联储主席伯南克在2013年5月22日国会听证会问询中进一步表示“将考虑在未来几次议息会议中开始逐步放缓资产购买速度”,进一步释放Taper信号。此后,在6月、7月、9月FOMC会议上,伯南克表示“将继续维持原有购债规模”,同时“若经济、就业和通胀数据满足条件,今年内放缓购债步伐是合适的”。在10月议息会议上,委员们开始谈论Taper时间和节奏,但并未给出确切统一的信号。\n12月会议上,美联储表示:经济持续取得进展,劳动力市场持续取得重要进展(meaningful cumulative progress),通胀和通胀预期稳定,基于此,决定从下个月开始缩减购债。2014年1月,美联储正式开启Taper进程,每次会议上宣布缩减100亿美元(其中50亿UST,50亿MBS),直到同年10月会议上宣布结束QE3。2013-2014年Taper进程中,从开始Taper talk到正式宣布减码用时7.5个月,从正式开启Taper到结束QE用时10个月。\n2015年9月FOMC会议上,13/17与会者预期2015年内将启动加息进程,美联储释放出加息信号。同年12月,美联储上调联邦基金利率目标区间至0.25-0.50,开启金融危机后的首次加息进程。\n\n2.上一轮Taper与加息的经济环境\n2013年Taper是基于三轮QE后美国经济开始稳定复苏、劳动力市场逐渐修复、通胀稳定的条件进行的。经济表现方面,2012年美国GDP增速开始稳定抬升,全年经济增速2.3%,伯南克在国会听证会上也表示了对2013Q1经济增速的乐观预期(预计Q1GDP同比2.5%)。此后虽然2013年Q1-Q2经济增速稍有回落,但Q3-Q4再次回升。制造业PMI于2012年末开始见底回升,重回荣枯线以上,并于2013年11月达到QE3以来的峰值,12月宣布Taper时制造业PMI已远超金融危机前水平;非制造业PMI虽然较金融危机前仍有差距,但一直表现稳定在荣枯线以上。供给端工业产出和产能利用率趋于稳定,工业产出已恢复至金融危机前水平,产能利用率小幅稳步修复。需求端零售销售持续修复,同比稳定正增长,并于2010年末超过金融危机前水平。库存销售比处于危机后相对低点,尤其是零售库存显著低于危机前水平。房地产市场走强,新屋开工和新房销售自2012年开始同比高增。\n劳动力市场持续修复,非农就业人数稳步正增长,非农就业增速于2013年Q4显著提升。非农就业持续修复,2013年6月起修复程度达99%以上,并于2014年1月恢复至危机前水平。但就业市场修复仍不完全。失业率水平持续下降,2013年12月失业率6.7%较QE3之前下降1.4个百分点,但仍高于美联储目标值6.5%。职位空缺率持续上升,劳动力就业意愿不强。\n通胀方面,QE3以来通胀水平持续在2%目标以下运行。美联储自2013年6月议息会议上承认,通胀持续低于目标值可能会给经济表现带来风险。但美联储认为长期通胀预期稳定,并预计通胀率将逐步回到2%水平。\n2014年结束QE3后,2015年Q1美国GDP增速3.76%,为金融危机以来最快增速,尽管后续Q2-Q3增速有所回落,但仍保持稳定增长。劳动力市场进一步修复,非农就业人数持续稳定正增长;失业率于2014年4月降至6.5%目标以下,至2015年12月再降1.5个百分点;劳动力参与率维持在62%-63%区间波动。通胀方面,尽管价格指数持续低迷,但2015年Q4已有回升迹象,考虑到就业市场修复情况,美联储于2015年12月开启危机后首次加息。\n\n\n\n\n图:美国经济基本面数据,数据来源wind\n3.上一轮宽松政策退出时资产价格表现\n对于08年金融危机后史无前例的大规模资产购买计划,市场对其收尾的时点和节奏未能形成充分预期。因此2013年5月1日美联储首次释放Taper信号后,引发了缩减恐慌,长端美债收益率在两个月内快速上行近110BP,并继续震荡上行直至9月FOMC会议上市场Taper预期落空后,美债利率随之下降。而2013年12月18日正式宣布Taper后,市场反应反而较为平淡,10年期美债利率小幅上扬后开始了长达1年的回落。\n2015年10年期国债利率总体震荡,主系油价拖累通胀和通胀预期,同时加息预期拉动实际利率上行,两者反复博弈。2015年12月开启加息后,通胀预期继续走弱的同时,实际利率也由于美国经济数据疲弱转而下行,两者共同拖累美债利率下行。\n\n\n图:美国国债利率表现,数据来源wind\n2013年5月22日伯南克在国会听证会上继续释放Taper信号后,美股在缩减恐慌驱动下快速下跌。同年12月正式宣布Taper后,美股开始反弹。总体2013年Taper并未对美股造成很大影响,在经济复苏和企业盈利修复驱动下,美股总体仍快速上涨。2015年12月开启加息进程后,美股小幅上扬后转而大幅下跌,主系基本面和通胀走弱。直到2016年2月通胀和基本面有所回暖后才有所回升。\n\n图:美国标普500指数表现,数据来源wind\n05\n展望:未来美联储货币政策的可能性推演\n考虑到全球疫情的不确定性、美国经济增长动能更加依赖货币与财政政策配合、美国股市估值处于历史较高位置,以及2013年美联储调整货币政策时沟通较少而引发了金融市场的大幅波动,我们倾向于认为未来一段时间美联储缩减资产购买规模将是非常审慎的,更多依赖于已经实现的经济数据,特别是就业市场的数据,而不是市场对未来经济数据的预期。并且美联储将在开启缩减资产购买规模之前将与市场进行充分的沟通,让市场对此做出充分的思考与预案。未来一段时间,投资者博弈的焦点将从何时开启Taper转为缩减资产购买的规模以及美联储Taper过程中所做的调整。\n具体而言,一是经济基准情景下:若美国疫情得到基本控制,就业市场持续稳步复苏,即8-11月月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下,拜登政府主张的1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划在四季度落实立法,那么美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容,12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper,每月减少国债购买100亿美元,减少MBS购买50亿美元,用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划,在2022年12月之前引导加息预期的概率较低。资产表现方面,年内十年期美债收益率缓慢攀升至1.5%,黄金在1700-1900美元区间震荡,美股维持涨势,但标普500涨幅难超5%。对中国十年期国债影响有限,对中国低估值权益资产偏利多,对原油、铜等国际大宗品种的影响偏利多。\n二是经济悲观情景下:美国本轮疫情加速恶化,制约社会经济活动改善,就业市场恢复不及预期,拜登政府主张的财政刺激计划推进受阻或落地规模缩小,美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。资产表现方面,年内十年期美债收益率维持1.0-1.2%区间运行,黄金有望突破1900美元,美股上涨且纳斯达克表现有望更优。对中国十年期国债偏利多,对中国权益市场偏利多。\n三是经济乐观情景下:美国本轮疫情迅速得到控制,至年底月均新增非农就业超100万人,美国政府债务上限、拜登财政计划在9-10月顺利推进解决,美联储或将Taper开启提前至11月。资产表现方面,年内十年期美债收益率有望重回1.7%,黄金跌破1700美元,美股将呈现高位波动。对中国十年期国债影响偏利空,对中国高估值权益资产偏利空,对原油偏利多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653569,"gmtCreate":1630944641251,"gmtModify":1676530426304,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653569","repostId":"1145607463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653280,"gmtCreate":1630944632740,"gmtModify":1676530426300,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653280","repostId":"1169885756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}