Profile - To The Moon

perfy

Posts · 101Posts · 101
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- perfyperfy
  ·2021-09-21
  Did u manage to hop on the bandwagon?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.50K 1
  2
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-09-18
  Is a bear coming ?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.86K 1
  3
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-09-17
  Awesome
  Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction
  Summary Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at
  Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction
  3.02K Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-09-09
  Sea Ltd!!!!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.15K 4
  9
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-09-06
  Like pls
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.56K 1
  6
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-08-19
  Gogo Nvidia. Like pls
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.84K 2
  10
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-08-16
  Like and comment pls
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.61K 1
  3
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-08-04
  Like and comment pls
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.99K 1
  6
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-07-31
  Awesome news. Like pls
  AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued
  AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g
  AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued
  4.50K 4
  5
  Share
  Report
- perfyperfy
  ·2021-07-30
  Way to go. Like pls
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.55K Comment
  3
  Share
  Report
No following yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3568066676888446","uuid":"3568066676888446","gmtCreate":1611840006676,"gmtModify":1618280900212,"name":"perfy","pinyin":"perfy","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":14,"headSize":4,"tweetSize":101,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.88%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.26","exceedPercentage":"60.64%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":860540337,"gmtCreate":1632191177229,"gmtModify":1676530721931,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did u manage to hop on the bandwagon?","listText":"Did u manage to hop on the bandwagon?","text":"Did u manage to hop on the bandwagon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860540337","repostId":"2169681424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884416323,"gmtCreate":1631926015562,"gmtModify":1676530670176,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is a bear coming ?&nbsp;","listText":"Is a bear coming ?&nbsp;","text":"Is a bear coming ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884416323","repostId":"2168716185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884919217,"gmtCreate":1631845371039,"gmtModify":1676530651056,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884919217","repostId":"1126607843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126607843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631785252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126607843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-16 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126607843","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>\n <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>\n <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>\n <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>As an introduction...</b></p>\n<p>Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p>\n<p>In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p>\n<p>First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p>\n<p>Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p>\n<p>And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p>\n<p>So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p>\n<p><b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p>\n<p>The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p>\n<p>Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p>\n<p>Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p>\n<p><b>Some Statistics</b></p>\n<p>To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p>\n<p>To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p>\n<p>Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p>\n<p>But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p>\n<p>On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p>\n<p>In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p>\n<p>Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Notes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>\n <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>\n <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here is the DCF model:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p>\n<p>In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p>\n<p>Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p>\n<p>Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p>\n<p>Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>And here is the DCF model:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p>\n<p>Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p>\n<p>Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p><b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p>\n<p>Let's summarize:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p>\n<p>This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p>\n<p>But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 17:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126607843","content_text":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.\nApple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nIn the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.\n\nvicnt/iStock via Getty Images\nAs an introduction...\nSince the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:\nData by YCharts\nFor a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nIn addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.\nFirst, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:\nSource: Bank of America\nSecond, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is already outlined.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nAnd finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSo, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?\nWhy Apple vs. Microsoft?\nThe decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.\nFirstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSecondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.\nSome Statistics\nTo begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.\nTo do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:\nSource: TradingView, Author\nHere are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:\nSource: Author\nAt first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.\nBut in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...\nFundamentals\nExclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.\nOn the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's future cash flow. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of all potential dividendsthat the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.\nIn order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.\nLet's start with Apple. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nNotes:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).\nI used the current value of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.\n\nHere is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).\nIn the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:\nData by YCharts\nContinuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.\nApple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).\nNow let's take a look at Microsoft.\nHere is the calculation of the WACC:\nSource: Author\nAnd here is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).\nMicrosoft is also actively buying back shares:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).\nLet's summarize:\n\nIt is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nThis suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.\nBut during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.\nBottom line\nAt the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889649841,"gmtCreate":1631147473883,"gmtModify":1676530479096,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea Ltd!!!!","listText":"Sea Ltd!!!!","text":"Sea Ltd!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889649841","repostId":"2166390364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817030030,"gmtCreate":1630889623220,"gmtModify":1676530411975,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817030030","repostId":"1105876391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831283381,"gmtCreate":1629330112543,"gmtModify":1676530002700,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo Nvidia. Like pls","listText":"Gogo Nvidia. Like pls","text":"Gogo Nvidia. Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831283381","repostId":"1183927541","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830675121,"gmtCreate":1629073314963,"gmtModify":1676529920005,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830675121","repostId":"2159211727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807509059,"gmtCreate":1628041630671,"gmtModify":1703500090237,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807509059","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806403601,"gmtCreate":1627686508103,"gmtModify":1703494558997,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome news. Like pls","listText":"Awesome news. Like pls","text":"Awesome news. Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806403601","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135561812?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>\n <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>\n <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>\n <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p>\n<p>Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p>\n<p>I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p>\n<p>Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p>\n<p>The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to cash flow.</p>\n<p>AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p>\n<p>AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p>\n<p>AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Challenges to my price target</b></p>\n<p>The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p>\n<p>Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 17:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806071278,"gmtCreate":1627620682194,"gmtModify":1703493533367,"author":{"id":"3568066676888446","authorId":"3568066676888446","name":"perfy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8edb3bb2f215648d104b44aeba812ab7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568066676888446","authorIdStr":"3568066676888446"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Way to go. Like pls","listText":"Way to go. Like pls","text":"Way to go. Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806071278","repostId":"1136493836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}