Why bitcoin needs to fall another 20% before it's even worth a look
Fair value for the cryptocurrency is currently about $55,000. It would be entirely understandable for Claude Erb to say to the crypto bros: "I told you so.". Erb is the former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group whose model of bitcoin's fair value has been roundly dismissed as hopelessly irrelevant. Last October, for instance, bitcoin traded above $125,000, more than double the fair-value estimate of $53,000 from Erb's model at the time.What a difference five months can make: Bitcoin now is trading below $70,000. Moreover, given the small number of additional bitcoins that have been mined since last October, the latest fair-value estimate from Erb's model is now around $55,000.A corollary of Erb's investment lesson is that when an asset that previously deviated from fair value eventually returns towards fair value, there is no guarantee th
