To The Moon

The AI Craze Things have been incredibly good for a few tech stocks. Hitting new record highs almost on a daily basis. Good for them. Except that it is not so for the majority of counters in the S&P500, DOW or even Nasdaq. This means that the values are being confined to a handful of stocks. And this lopsidedness is worrying. Not sustainable.  We saw this happen in 2020 when a handful of "Internet" stocks were sucking up liquidity from the rest of the markets. And we all know what happened when the bubble burst. We don't know when, or even if this time the burst happens again. But we need to be aware and watchful and make our own calls. Take control of your own destiny. Don't let FOMO mentality determine your fate. Steve Eiseman of The Big Short fame was refently intervi

Anthropic reported to be launching it's IPO around mid-November with a valuation of above $1.5 trillion.  I have to ask. With funds being squeezed and Treasury Bond sales collapsing (10 year yield have had to be raised about 5.2% to keep holder interested), where is the new money goong to come from to support the Anthropic IPO?  You have to pay attention to this. Good luck.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$  Another rocket launch in under a week. SpaceX looks really busy. Wonder how this will show in their next quarterly results.

$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$  A sense of caution is happening right now. Treasury yields are crazy high and Micron's share price fell even after posting stellar results.  I feel money is being taken off the table now.

It is actually more scary that the market has not reacted worst after seeing this. It can only mean that much of the retail crowd is ignoring real facts and are not realising the true impact on the finance liquidity that this will lead to. And when the impact is felt, the correction of the market won't be just a correction.

‌ W‌hat a dissappointing response to an otherwise good result announcement. This is again putting forth the question about valuation and the price-to-perfection theory that is abound. A Blackrock analyst has just made this comment on Bloomberg that Blackrock is pivoting away from the Ai plays. The feeling is, it has already hit the pinnacle value, and what was not said could also be the professionals are feeling it has gone beyond true value. This is the only explanation I can think of for all the poor price responses we have been seeing after the AI companies made otherwise stellar results and forward projections. The market has already priced in all possible good news.

$Micron Technology(MU)$  Maybe too early to call but the response to earnings and projevtions seem to suggest a sell-on-news mode is very much still in play. Same as was for NVDA and others like MRVL, CRWV, etc.

Nasdaq/DOW/S&P I personally feel there is a large amount of exuberance in the markets right now. With all the data giving warning lights, the markets are still reaching higher. All this feels awfully familiar. In 2000, just before the dot.com burst, it was exactly like this. And it repeated in 2028, before the Sub-prime implosion. Guys, nothing wrong to take profits. Better to miss the boat with some money, that to lose it all.  You can always join in again if you have cash on hand. But you are dead if you are broke and in debt. Just sharing my personal view.

This is one reason why many have called for sfaety checks and enhancements to the way AI is allowed to act.  And there is also the truth that AI breaks copyright laws in sourcing information. The way they operate is they scoured whatever information is available in the web (including hacking into non-public sites) to deliver the information requested by users.  So how does this speak into PDPA laws? It's a brave new world which many are rushing into without considering the full impact on society.

This is not surprising and I did see this happen when they first announced their last quarter results. The worry here is this did not just happen to Oracle, but also Marvell, Coreweave, Nividia, etc. All annouced sterling results which mostly beat revious results but also expectations of analyst. What this may suggest is, the market is completely out of sync with reality and much of today's valuation is really unrealistic. And also, the market is very very retail driven. This is dangerous as these are people who are mostly sheep following the calls of investment "gurus". And they are the ones who are buying with borrowed funds. Look what happened to the KOSPI last month to understand what is happening. And with the bond yields going nuts, plus Kezin Walsh now expected to raise rates, not o