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Jefflau749

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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2023-02-02
  ya
  Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare
  THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday
  Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2023-02-02
  ya
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-11-14
  $Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-11-14
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-04
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-03
  $Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$U
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-03
  $Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-26
  ya
  Is the time for European debt "Minsky" approaching? This time it's different
  欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为
  Is the time for European debt "Minsky" approaching? This time it's different
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-21
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-19
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  It's too curly! A broker broke down Tesla and wrote a 94-page report
  没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3
  It's too curly! A broker broke down Tesla and wrote a 94-page report
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08:43","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138331498","media":"Business Times","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday","content":"<div>\n<p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-02 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare><strong>Business Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMOU.SI":"吉宝-KBS美国房地产信托","5UX.SI":"豪利","BUOU.SI":"星狮物流工业信托","V8Y.SI":"康敦医疗"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138331498","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing across its portfolio for its first quarter ended Dec 31, 2022, the real estate investment trust’s (Reit) manager said in a Wednesday (Feb 1) business update.The Reit maintained a 100 per cent occupancy for its logistics and industrial (L&I) portfolio, while its commercial portfolio recorded an 89.8 per cent occupancy rate. Overall occupancy came in at 95.9 per cent.Mainboard-listed Oxley Holdings reported on Wednesday (Feb 1) a sharp decline in net profit for its first half on the back of lower revenue and higher finance costs.Net profit for the six-month period ended Dec 31, 2022 fell to S$277,000 from S$23.5 million in the corresponding period a year ago.The group said in the bourse filing that the lower profits were due to “lower revenue streams coupled with higher finance costs resulting from rising interest rates and lower mark-to-market fair-value gain on derivative financial instruments”.THE manager of Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit said large-scale layoffs amid a tech sector slowdown are not a major concern for its portfolio – and might even be viewed as “somewhat positive” for the US office-focused real estate investment trust (Reit).“When you look at the layoffs for these companies in Bellevue and Redmond and compare that to what their hiring has been over the last several years, you will find that it has been just a fraction of what their hiring had been,” said David Snyder, chief executive of the Reit manager, at a briefing on Wednesday (Feb 1) following its FY2022 results announcement.Quantum Healthcare, on Feb 2, announced that it has proposed to acquire the businesses of three clinics operating under the Dental Hub Group.The acquisition was scaled down from theinitial acquisition of six clinicsunder the Dental Hub Group.The three clinics under the acquisition are located at Alexandra Road, Bedok North and Choa Chua Kang. The previous agreement included other clinics that were located in Jurong West, Telok Blangah Crescent and West Coast Road. According to Quantum Healthcare, this is due to several factors such as the existing market conditions, the clinics’ financial performance, as well as the location of the clinics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"5UX.SI":0.9,"BUOU.SI":0.9,"CMOU.SI":0.9,"V8Y.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955894837,"gmtCreate":1675317716529,"gmtModify":1676538992495,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955894837","repostId":"1144650848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969692003,"gmtCreate":1668421088003,"gmtModify":1676538054023,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLM\">$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLM\">$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","text":"$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ ya","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40d0545f72bc49a80eab4e2b46927636","width":"1080","height":"2266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969692003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969696444,"gmtCreate":1668421068588,"gmtModify":1676538054022,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ ya","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33faa7bf44fa7209d11e62daa206ed23","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969696444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912570035,"gmtCreate":1664863260627,"gmtModify":1676537520880,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912570035","repostId":"1185863834","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912950969,"gmtCreate":1664751359551,"gmtModify":1676537500398,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Inc.(AITX)$U","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0739bbd9510f43bdc11bde975f59a1aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912950969","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912950005,"gmtCreate":1664751332208,"gmtModify":1676537500397,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>ya","text":"$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$ya","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0739bbd9510f43bdc11bde975f59a1aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912950005","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909019162,"gmtCreate":1658791730656,"gmtModify":1676536206553,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909019162","repostId":"1100128143","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128143","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658756746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100128143?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-25 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the time for European debt \"Minsky\" approaching? This time it's different","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128143","media":"李美岑投资策略","summary":"欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The European Central Bank has joined the global tightening wave, and the phantom of European debt has haunted Italy.</b>In order to prevent inflation and the trend of the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank exceeded expectations in rate hike by 50BP on the evening of July 21. The euro zone bid farewell to the eight-year era of negative interest rates, and there is the possibility of continuing to collect water in September, October and December. As a member of the five European pig countries with a heavy debt burden, Italy is the most dangerous: 1) Debt has continued to increase rapidly since 2019, and the current debt ratio among the five European pig countries is close to 60%; 2) The economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 did not bring about economic improvement. Since 2019, GDP growth has continued to decline to 0%; 3) Rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate was as high as 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced the rate hike, the yield of Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to expand to around 236BP, gradually approaching the level during the European debt crisis in 2010.</p><p><b>Historically, the downgrade of credit rating and the rate hike of the European Central Bank have been important drivers of the intensification of the European debt crisis.</b>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of European Central Bank rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond of both countries jumped by 120-160BP, which was the \"behind-the-scenes\" of the intensified liquidity run. In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield of Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond jumped by only 20BP, far lower than during the rating downgrade. In addition, the core European countries represented by Germany did not provide timely assistance, and it was not until mid-2010 that the EU crisis management mechanism was established, which led to the liquidity run caused by European debt spreading from peripheral countries to the core countries represented by France.</p><p><b>Short-term risks are controllable. In the long run, the implementation effect of the European Central Bank's TPI is the top priority. Pay attention to the early warning of liquidity indicators and credit indicators.</b>The total outstanding debt of the five European pig countries in 2022 is about 350 billion euros. Compared with the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) disposable funds of about 360 billion euros, short-term risks are temporarily controllable. However, at the peak of debt repayment in 2023, the maturity scale of the five European pig countries is about 561.3 billion euros, of which Italy accounts for 63%, and the amount of debt repayment is huge. Although the currently launched TPI targeted bond purchase tool does not have a purchase ceiling, the specific implementation details are still relatively vague. If core countries such as Germany and France \"can't protect themselves\" due to economic problems, the rescue effect of the European Central Bank may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem is also facing uncertainty. Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit default and liquidity run, we will continue to pay attention to liquidity indicators (LIBOR-OIS spread) and credit indicators (credit default swap rate CDS and German-Italian 10-year Treasury Bond spread).</p><p><b>The European debt problem is \"crises coexist\" for China.</b>At the economic level, the EU is China's second largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in China's import and export growth. Under the last round of European debt impact, China's export growth rate dropped from 26.42% to 4.43%, and the import growth rate dropped from 32.99% to 1.39%; On the other hand, the economic pressure brought by the European debt problem may increase the EU's dependence on my country's trade. In the future, attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement. At the financial level, the fermentation of the European debt problem will start the \"Risk Off\" mode of global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune to it in the short term. But in the long run, with RMB substitution + fundamental differentiation, stocks, bonds and exchanges in the Chinese market are expected to go out of the independent market.</p><p><b>Risk warning: geopolitical crisis; Overseas rate hike exceeded expectations; The spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. The European Central Bank joins the global tightening wave, and concerns about European debt defaults resurface</b></p><p><b>1.1. Inflationary pressures have repeatedly hit new highs, and the \"negative interest rate era\" in the euro zone has become history</b></p><p><b>The rise in oil prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to record inflation in the euro zone, and the huge trade deficit has also pushed the euro to a 20-year low.</b>About 30% of the EU's oil imports come from Russia. After experiencing supply chain tensions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the year, and Europe and the United States imposed a partial crude oil embargo on Russia in May, the EU's crude oil imports from Russia have dropped by 20% compared with last year, and the gap between supply and demand continues to expand. The current inflation level in the euro zone has reached 8.6%, which is a record high since its establishment; The core CPI after excluding energy, food and other factors is 3.7%, which also shows the significant impact of energy prices on the euro zone. Due to the increase in import costs and weak external demand brought about by energy prices, the euro zone experienced the largest trade deficit since its establishment (32.4 billion euros). Even Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, experienced its first trade deficit in 30 years in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae99577318ca9108e9ff778ed2b142f7\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef865d7c8ef48b331a4ab89a4bc5492b\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In order to prevent inflation and the trend of the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank joined the global \"water collection mode\" and the euro zone bid farewell to the eight-year era of negative interest rates.</b>Since its establishment in 1998, the European Central Bank has adjusted its monetary policy with inflation rate as the core variable. In July 2021, the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy control strategy, and the monetary policy target changed from the original \"below but close to 2%\" to a symmetrical target of 2%. Now the inflation rate in the euro zone has far exceeded the target of 2%. Based on this, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 50 basis points on the evening of July 21st. So far, the eight-year negative interest rate in the euro zone ended before the third quarter. In addition, boosting the euro exchange rate is also one of the purposes of the European Central Bank's consideration of rate hike. At present, due to the huge trade deficit, the euro has fallen below 1: 1 against the US dollar, which is at a new low in 20 years. After the European Central Bank's rate hike 50BP, the euro jumped 90 points against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1f314ac60faf81f63dc2224fdda9e6\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2. rate hike pushes up debt costs, and the phantom of European debt entangles Italy</b></p><p><b>The debt level of European countries continued to rise after the European debt crisis in 2010. This time, rate hike may further trigger the default risk of peripheral countries by pushing up borrowing costs.</b>Take the \"European Pig Five\" as an example. The current debt burden has already exceeded the level of the European debt crisis in 2010. Among them, Greece's national debt accounts for close to 200% of GDP, followed by Italy, Spain and Portugal, and the national debt accounts for around 120% of GDP. After the European Central Bank launched its first rate hike in July, there is the possibility of continuing to collect water in September, October and December. In the future, the debt service interest of countries in the euro zone will jump non-linearly, and the rate hike plan will expose heavily indebted countries to the potential risk of debt crisis due to rising borrowing costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec821604531a0bf44d93798410bbbda\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ab61b0445fde666357d205d28e915a\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Italy may be the most dangerous \"flammable product\" in this European debt problem.</b>Since 2019, Italy's debt has continued to increase rapidly, and the outstanding debt in the next 10 years will exceed 2 trillion euros, accounting for nearly 60% of the five European pig countries. At the same time, the economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 did not bring about economic improvement. In 2019, GDP growth continued to decline to 0%. Since then, the impact of the epidemic on the service industry has also seriously damaged the Italian economy. In addition, rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate was as high as 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced its rate hike, the market was generally worried that Italy would become the first \"bomb\" of the European debt default. The yield of Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the spread between Germany and Italy continued to expand to about 236BP, gradually approaching the level during the European debt crisis in 2010.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352a1e10163f43bc57f2ee2696fef298\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65ad6e7d00387f27f0f68e16301b7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The essence of the European debt crisis is a liquidity run in the entire euro zone</b></p><p><b>The European debt crisis is a derivative of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</b>Southern Europe, with weak endogenous growth, maintains the \"false prosperity\" of its economy with real estate and tourism all the year round under the hollow economic structure of manufacturing industry. The real estate and tourism boom brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis has sharply declined, cutting off the source of income in southern Europe. Banks in Ireland, Spain and other countries have to ask the government for help because of the formation of a large number of bad debts of real estate debts. Taking Ireland as an example, the local government injected at least 70 billion euros into the financial system, more than half of the GDP at that time. This also led to the dilemma that the government was unable to borrow under the subsequent European debt impact and had to seek help from the IMF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787d43a12dcb17ac7b010e11444e8d07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. In the context of cross-holding of Treasury Bond within the euro zone, the rating downgrade has become the trigger point of \"burning the company\"</b></p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 pushed Greece to a \"dead end\", and the downgrade of Greece was the first \"domino\" to derive the European debt crisis.</b>After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, Greece, which is highly dependent on foreign countries, can no longer enjoy the economic dividends brought by exports and real estate. At the same time, because the European Central Bank controls the dominance of currency and exchange rate, Greece cannot stimulate the economy through independent loose money or exchange rate devaluation. It has to choose to make a big Treasury Bond and expand fiscal expenditure. At the beginning of October, 2009, the newly appointed Greek Finance Minister announced that the previous government's debt was fraudulent. In fact, the fiscal deficit and public debt at that time accounted for 12.7% and 113% of GDP, far exceeding the 3% and 60% stipulated by the European Union. In December, the three major rating agencies downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating and gave a negative outlook, which directly led to a surge in Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond, a significant widening of the interest rate spread with Germany, and panic filled the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a918d6455be7c166b2c650eede522954\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be57e1656f3a830e584216fc4737818a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Successive \"thunderstorms\" in Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy have gradually led the debt crisis from the peripheral countries of the euro zone to the core countries.</b>The thunderstorm methods of the \"European Pig Five\" are different. Portugal followed Greece and increased its actual fiscal deficit to 8%. The market is worried that it will not be able to survive the upcoming debt repayment peak safely. Portugal's 10-year Treasury Bond once increased from 3.5%. Close to 14.2%. For Ireland, the real estate bubble is the \"initiator\". In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis caused an impact on European and American real estate. In order to save the five major banks that were about to go bankrupt, the Irish government's fiscal deficit ratio will be as high as 32% in 2010, and the ratio of public debt to GDP will be as high as 100%. The debt pressure will catch up with that of Greece, and the country's 10-year Treasury Bond will soar to 9%. In October 2011, France, the core country of the euro zone, was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Eyeing, the latter pointed out that France has the weakest debt performance among 3A-rated countries, and its sovereign debt situation continues to deteriorate. Subsequently, Italy's public debt share climbed to 120%, second only to Greece's level, and its sovereign rating was successively downgraded by rating agencies. As Italian, French and Spanish account for 55% of the Treasury Bond market in the euro zone, much higher than that of Greek, Irish and Portuguese (only 7% in total), the European debt problem has evolved from a local impact to a crisis in the whole euro zone at the end of 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9032ac6c07f356abceccf84c92b758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At the same time, the European debt crisis has escalated from sovereign countries to the level of commercial banks in the whole euro zone.</b>Commercial banks in the euro zone cross-hold a large number of \"European Pig Five\" Treasury Bond, and only French, German, British and Portuguese commercial banks hold more than 1/3 of the Greek holdings. With the soaring yield of Treasury Bond brought about by the downgrade of a series of sovereign credit ratings, the whole European commercial banks began to make large-scale provisions for bad debts, and the pressure of capital replenishment suddenly increased. Take Dexia Bank of Belgium as an example. The liquidity shock caused by European debt made it impossible to solve its risk exposure of more than 20 billion euros, and it was forced to become the first bank to fall. Other large European banks, such as Societe Generale,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>And others were also downgraded for holding a large amount of Greek government bonds.</p><p><b>2.2. Belated rescue measures also put the impact of European debt beyond control</b></p><p><b>The core European countries represented by Germany did not provide timely assistance, which led to the further escalation of the European debt crisis.</b>In fact, at the beginning of the European debt crisis, only Greece had debt problems. However, at that time, Germany adopted a passive bystander attitude, believing that Greece should first reform the social structure with high welfare and high deficit, and did not intend to continue to act as a \"cash machine\". At the beginning of 2010, Merkel's government also threatened to kick members who did not abide by fiscal discipline out of the euro zone. This tough attitude aggravated the market panic, and Ireland, Portugal and Italy, which also faced high debt problems, were all involved. Germany's tough attitude has also increased the rescue cost of the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e83452454edb9f244374becaeaaf6f\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd8858e0e6e97ce19a74299f23ab516\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In mid-2010, Germany realized the seriousness of the European debt crisis and began to establish the EU crisis governance mechanism. However, because it missed the best opportunity, the whole euro zone paid a higher cost.</b>In May 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel let go and was willing to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the euro, and finally decided to provide Greece with a three-year loan and credit guarantee of 110 billion euros. But at this time, it has been more than half a year since the impact of the Greek incident, and the chain reaction of European debt has been out of control. Since then, the ECB has had to inject more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity into the market through two rounds of three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs). The European Central Bank launched the Securities Market Program (SMP), which conducts weekly time deposit facilities to hedge the injected liquidity. As of September 28, 2012, the stock of government bonds purchased under the SMP program of the European Central Bank was 208.83 billion euros. This intervention effectively lowered the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond yield by 8BP. The European Central Bank eliminates the tail risk of the euro by purchasing sovereign bonds (OMT) in the secondary market. OMT purchases sovereign bonds with a maturity of 1 to 3 years on the premise of rescue plans such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the macro adjustment plan of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), with no scale ceiling and yield target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f726a41026ac863575ccad237c0ec5\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The core contradiction of the European debt problem lies in the monetary unification of the euro zone, but the fiscal disunity</b></p><p><b>High welfare expenditure forces European countries to rely heavily on bond issuance, but it is tantamount to \"drinking poison to quench thirst\" for peripheral countries with weak endogenous economic growth.</b>Europe is famous for its high welfare all over the world. Take Italy and Greece as examples. In 2009, the social welfare expenditure of the two countries accounted for 21% of GDP, while that of the United States and Canada was only 14.66% and 9.87% in the same period. At the same time, the industrial structure of the peripheral countries of the euro zone is unbalanced, most of them take real estate and services as their pillar industries, and the manufacturing industry is hollowed out. They have to borrow money to stimulate investment and consumption, so as to maintain an apparently \"peaceful\" but actually fragile economy. Therefore, the sudden rise in debt repayment pressure brought by European debt will inevitably take the lead in marginal countries with high welfare and high fiscal deficits. As early as 2007, Greece's fiscal expenditure had reached 6.7% of GDP, and Portugal and Spain were also around 5% of GDP, both exceeding the warning line of the euro zone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cda0d0996de5805a3e1b454690d34da\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71feaf044db90b2a18341d785a7f8306\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Joining the euro zone has given peripheral countries such as Greece a certain endorsement, enabling them to expand their fiscal deficits by \"free riding\" at low cost.</b>Due to the underdeveloped economy, the borrowing cost of peripheral countries before joining the euro zone is significantly higher than that of core countries such as Germany and France. However, after joining the euro, the market believes that the credit level of countries in the whole euro zone is the same. Before the outbreak of European debt in 2010, the yield level of 10-year Treasury Bond in the southern countries with poor economic conditions and the northern countries with perfect economic development was about 5%, which showed the market's \"unwarranted\" confidence in the euro zone. Therefore, the peripheral countries with weak economies could obtain high credit ratings by virtue of the shell of the euro zone and borrow heavily at a lower cost. All along, the core countries headed by Germany have become capital exporting countries, while the peripheral countries such as the \"European Pig Five\" have become capital inflow countries, and there is a long-term trade deficit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4957e68990c695b9351d3712298946\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250b57c451c5b1cb12b98dd3770c657\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Under the background that monetary policy cannot regulate the economy, the peripheral countries of the euro zone can only rely on fiscal stimulus, which eventually leads to the \"snowball\" of debt out of control.</b>The monetary policies of EU member states are uniformly formulated by the European Central Bank. Since its establishment, the latter has focused on maintaining the stability of the euro and has no obligation to manage the financial market. In other words, when the market needs expansionary monetary policy to regulate the economy, the European Central Bank will not stabilize the financial environment by giving priority to the depreciation of the euro. However, with the expansion of the influence of European debt, the European Central Bank had to act as the \"lender of last resort\" at the end of 2011, supplementing liquidity through open market operations. Taking Germany as an example, the Deutsche Bundesbank has provided nearly 500 billion euros in loans through the TARGET-2 system of the European Central Bank to reduce the repayment pressure of banks in heavily indebted countries in the euro zone.</p><p><b>2.4. International capital has played a role in \"fueling the flames\" in European debt</b></p><p><b>As early as the beginning of 2000, Wall Street was eyeing Greece, which \"borrowed money to survive\".</b>In 1999, Greece was rejected by the European Economic and Monetary Union because of inconsistent conditions: the Maastricht Treaty stipulated that the member countries of the euro zone should meet two conditions: first, all countries must control their annual deficits below 3% of GDP; Second, the Treasury Bond of each country must account for less than 60% of GDP. Greece's exchange rate of 1 to 1 between the euro and the dollar is compared with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Signing a currency swap transaction (at that time, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar was roughly 1: 0.9), this \"demonic agreement\" concealed a public debt of up to 1 billion euros for the Greek government, making the Greek deficit only 1.5% of GDP on the book (actually 4.1%). Greece met the criteria for becoming a member of the euro zone on the book, and joined the euro zone in 2001. But financial fraud can only cover up the problem, and the debt itself will not disappear. On the contrary, Greece has to create more currency swaps to cover up its debt and deficit, which increases its debt burden and makes Greece deeply mired in the debt vortex.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e21029ba71d609ae2dee610a906ec0\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to earning high commission remuneration, international investment banks have also tied the core countries of the euro zone to a \"thief ship\" through financial derivatives.</b>After completing the deal with Greece, Goldman Sachs purchased a 20-year credit default swap (CDS) of 1 billion euros from German banks to hedge the risk of Greek Treasury Bond, so that the underwriter can make up the deficit when there is a payment problem of Greek debt. As Germany is the largest economic entity in the euro zone, this move is equivalent to tying Germany to Greece's \"debt ship\". If the Greek government has a payment crisis and the debt chain breaks, Germany will have to pay for 1 billion euros of debt.</p><p><b>3. Is the \"Minsky moment\" of European debt approaching? ECB takes action, short-term risks are controllable</b></p><p><b>3.1. Credit rating downgrade and European Central Bank rate hike are important drivers of the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2010</b></p><p>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of European Central Bank rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond of both countries jumped by 120-160BP, which was the \"behind-the-scenes\" of the intensified liquidity run. In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield of Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond jumped by only 20BP, far lower than during the rating downgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab7de507966e0625a200fca71fe848c\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition, the European Central Bank misjudged the situation and tightened monetary policy prematurely, adding another fire to the European debt crisis.</b>In April 2011, the European Central Bank decided to end the emergency rescue to peripheral countries, raised the deposit facility interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, and in July, it rate hike to 75BP again, which further worsened the European debt crisis, and the yield of Greek Treasury Bond soared to about 30%, an increase of about 50%. In November 2011, the European Central Bank restarted the rescue measures of interest rate cuts, and with the remedy of non-traditional rescue tools, the euro zone economy gradually improved.</p><p><b>3.2. Comparison between the European debt crisis and the current ten points: short-term risks are controllable, and follow-up attention will be paid to the effect of the European Central Bank's \"fragmentation\" plan</b></p><p>At present, there has been no large-scale downgrade of sovereign credit rating in 2010, and the euro zone's ability to control risks has been enhanced. In the short term, European debt risks are still under control. In particular, the European Central Bank has significantly learned the \"lesson\" of not taking action in time during the last round of European debt shock. It has given the market a \"vaccination\" in advance and prepared a rescue plan, which has alleviated investors' current concerns to a certain extent. However, as the current pressure on inflation, economy and geopolitical issues facing Europe is significantly higher than that in 2010, the prospect of European debt is still unclear. We believe that the implementation effect of the follow-up ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan TPI is still the focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864b9d8c4a504c7047be2670827d0e15\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2. 1. The current improvement compared with the European debt crisis: risk tolerance and response speed have improved</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current period with the European debt crisis in 2010, we found five improvements:</b></p><p><b>1) Debt repayment costs decreased.</b>Although the current scale of government debt is further higher, the average interest rate on outstanding debt has decreased. During the European debt period in 2011, the average interest rate of Greece's outstanding debt was as high as 4.69%. At present, the average outstanding interest rates of euro zone countries are all lower than 3.50%, fluctuating around 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff2238505a03ecb2fe1baf7a811cdee0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a04e0995a13b1e48000ba117ca7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) The bad debt ratio decreased and the capital adequacy ratio increased.</b>From the perspective of risk resistance ability, the bad debt ratio of euro zone countries in this round of risk is below 10%, and the capital adequacy ratio is higher than 10%. During the European debt period, the capital adequacy ratio of Greece is lower than 0%, and the bad debt ratio is higher than 47%. Compared with the European debt crisis in 2010, European economies have better ability to resist risks in this round of crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ed6b576e5aaca9245552291f612b88\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) After the European debt crisis in 2011, the European Central Bank now has more experience in dealing with it.</b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde served as the president of IMF during the European debt crisis, and was the \"trouble terminator\" to solve the European debt crisis. After the announcement of the July rate hike, in order to cope with the significant concerns of the market after the European Central Bank proposed the monetary tightening plan, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting one week later to discuss the corresponding measures and put forward a proposal to launch a new bond purchase plan in July. The following month, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 50BP on July 21. At the same time, it launched a new bond purchase \"Transmission Protection Instrument\" (TPI: Transmission Protection Instrument) to prevent the \"fragmentation\" problem from exacerbating.</p><p><b>At present, the pressure of debt repayment is controllable, but under the peak of debt repayment in 23 years, if core countries such as Germany and France \"can't protect themselves\" due to economic problems, the rescue effect of the European Central Bank may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem is also facing uncertainty.</b>The total outstanding debt of the five European pig countries in 2022 is about 350 billion euros. Compared with the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) disposable funds of about 360 billion euros, short-term risks are temporarily controllable. However, heavily indebted countries will usher in the peak of debt repayment in 2023. The maturity scale of the five European pig countries is about 561.3 billion euros, of which Italy accounts for 63%. The amount of debt repayment is huge, and the risks cannot be underestimated. Judging from the current statement of the European Central Bank, the details of the TPI launched this time are still relatively vague, such as requiring applicant countries to meet four basic requirements, including 1) compliance with the EU fiscal framework; 2) There are no serious macroeconomic imbalances; 3) Fiscal and public debt sustainability; 4) Macroeconomic policies are sound and sustainable.</p><p>From another perspective, if the current TPI targeted bond purchase method is similar to the bond purchase policy of the Treasury Bond Direct Purchase Program (OMT) in the secondary market during the European debt period, it may need to comply with the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) principle: the loan guarantee amount is 165% of the capital contribution amount, and Germany and France, the countries with the largest contribution, will bear about 27% and 21% respectively. Considering that during the European debt crisis, the EU provided 60 billion euros of rescue funds and the IMF provided 240 billion euros of rescue funds, assuming that the EU and IMF give the same rescue this time, the remaining debt will be paid off in three years, and 150 million euros will need to be repaid every year. Germany and France need to contribute 668.2 billion euros and 519.8 billion euros each year within three years to repay their debts, which will account for about 18.7% and 16.2% of the GDP of Germany and France respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f37bb4992a0c0655c979378becf817\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4) Market sentiment has picked up after the action of the European Central Bank.</b>Despite a panic in sentiment following the European Central Bank's July rate hike announcement, the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 6% to 22,547.48. Within a week after that, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting, and the stock market picked up, with Italy's FTSE MIB index rising by 2%. On July 21, the European Central Bank exceeded expectations for rate hike by 50BP and launched TPI's new bond purchase program. The market reaction was less intense than expected, with Italy's FTSE MIB index closing slightly higher by 0.65% on the second day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4477efa53d7022dd5b39eb52c670e582\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) In this round of risk, the proportion of foreign holdings of Treasury Bond from euro zone countries has decreased slightly.</b>Therefore, the risk of the chain reaction of foreign capital \"running away\" in the event of a crisis and causing the soaring Treasury Bond rate is slightly weakened. Take Spain and Portugal as examples. By the end of last year, 74% of Spain and Portugal's Treasury Bond were held by domestic commercial banks and 82% of non-bank institutions respectively. In 2011, only about 64% and 67% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic capital respectively. The proportion of Chinese debt held by Italy, Greece and Ireland in the current and European debt crisis is basically the same as that during the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19d650708bc4e5d23e75e4068f23949\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36208dc67aed06319c7fcc15cd42435\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2. 2. Compared with the current deterioration of the European debt crisis: the scale of debt is rising, and the economic pressure may lead to a decline in rescue capabilities</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current period with the European debt crisis in 2010, we found that five points deteriorated:</b></p><p><b>1) The current economic pressure facing the euro zone has increased significantly compared with the previous round. As the \"economic locomotive\" of the euro zone, Germany has experienced a trade deficit of 1 billion euros for the first time in 30 years, and its ability to rescue the crisis has declined.</b>During the European debt crisis, the most important external shock factor was the global economic crisis in 2008, and the global GDP showed zero growth rate for the first time. Compared with this round of risks, the average GDP growth rate in the past two years was 3%, which was weaker than the pre-European debt economic level. The euro zone is facing the most severe geopolitical crisis since World War II, and the geopolitical risk index (GPR) is at a record high, above 300; In addition, Europe, which has long relied on Russian imports, has been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and its natural gas, oil, electricity and consumer goods prices have soared to US $34.35/million British thermal units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65c581f52939de86298cb6811327bd8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c730055545b283140c09b818d316c89c\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8357be18d5dce44af50c9c351e1de7\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ce2e58fbfb8e2b9cfd2024a149fbcc\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Eurozone countries are currently facing unprecedented high inflationary pressures.</b>The inflation level in the euro zone is gradually approaching and rising, and is now much higher than the previous level of European debt. The harmonized CPI (HICP) is as high as 8.6% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in history. In addition, the dual structure of fiscal and monetary policy separation among euro zone countries has not changed, and the fact that the \"fragmentation\" and unbalanced development among euro zone countries has not been improved has also brought resistance to inflation adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a7cb88bc64070c0b1c07beead5e0e2\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2092286c9ee47d57e20c21d52bf088\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The scale of euro zone debt remains high.</b>The ratio of national debt to GDP of peripheral countries in the euro zone is close to and exceeds the level in 2009, and the balance of government outstanding debt has gradually increased from 600 billion euros during the European debt period to 1 trillion euros now.</p><p><b>4) The euro fell to record lows and capital outflows continued.</b>In this round of debt risk, the euro weakened compared with the European debt period. The highest EUR/USD was 1.6 in history, and the lowest EUR/USD was 1.2 in the European debt period. Now the euro is weakening, and the EUR/USD has fallen below 1: 1, the lowest in history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5179b7a9e5ea3281459cc2ce33ca324c\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d46dde1623095785c85d21ee8e864a8\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) The proportion of marginal bonds held by European commercial banks increased by 5%.</b>During the European debt crisis, commercial banks in the euro zone cross-held a large number of heavily indebted Treasury Bond. Under the consequences of soaring Treasury Bond yields caused by the downgrade of sovereign credit rating, European commercial banks gradually collapsed and capital pressure suddenly increased. In this round of risks, the proportion of sovereign debt held by commercial banks in the euro zone has increased, and banks are facing greater capital risks. Take Portugal as an example. The proportion of Portuguese sovereign debt held by major European commercial banks in the country's sovereign debt has increased by about 5% compared with the European debt period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a22935ad810cdb8c0a9b8cd2f310a0\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3. The implementation effect of the European Central Bank's TPI is the top priority, paying attention to liquidity indicators and credit indicator early warnings</b></p><p>In order to avoid the impact of the euro zone bond market during the central bank's rate hike, the European Central Bank announced the rate hike 50BP, and at the same time launched the \"Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)\" to target and unlimited new bond purchase plan to control the borrowing costs of heavily indebted euro zone governments such as Italy, and pass monetary policy to all euro zone countries to avoid the aggravation of \"fragmentation\" problems. However, it is worth noting that, unlike 2011, as Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, is also plagued by economic recession, its enthusiasm for the European Central Bank's rescue plan may be greatly reduced. Whether the rescue capacity, which accounts for about 21% of the ESM rescue plan funds in the European debt crisis, can be continued is also worthy of follow-up attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bf00b93ba00cdcc63429155976e045\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit default and liquidity run, liquidity indicators and credit indicators have certain warning functions:</b></p><p>1) Liquidity indicators, such as the euro LIBOR-OIS spread, should arouse vigilance when approaching 0.5%, and there may be chain debt risk exposure caused by insufficient inter-bank liquidity.</p><p>2) Credit indicators, for example, when the credit default swap rate CDS is higher than 150, it indicates that the market is worried about sovereign credit risk.</p><p>3) The interest rate spread between core countries and peripheral countries in the euro zone has widened to more than 300BP. Italy may be the \"first domino\" of this round of European debt problem. The yield spread of 10-year Treasury Bond in Italy, Germany and Italy has gradually widened to more than 200BP. If the spread gradually approaches 300BP during the European debt crisis in 2010, we should be alert.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768567bc6fe0f18d58e5569515433dc8\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed5c286d9ae323db5bab55def20c9a1\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The European debt problem is \"crises coexist\" for China.</b></p><p><b>4.1. The turmoil in Europe affects China-EU trade in the short term, but the Chinese market is increasingly important for reviving the European economy</b></p><p><b>The EU is my country's second largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth.</b>In 2021, my country's exports to the EU will reach US $518.661 billion, accounting for 15.42%; The import value was US $309.931 billion, accounting for 11.54%. The potential debt problem in the euro zone may have an impact on China's imports and exports in the future. Historically, when the economic pressure in the euro zone was relatively high, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2010, and the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the imports and exports between my country and the EU all turned from positive to negative year-on-year. At the same time, it also has a great drag on my country's import and export trade. Under the last round of European debt impact, from Q1 2011 to Q3 2012, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone dropped from 57.93 to 45.07. During the same period, my country's export growth rate dropped from 26.42% to 4.43%, and the import growth rate dropped from 32.99% to 1.39%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b59ac53cd28cc68ff5dea567184430e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c61d802f396d39129ace35cf2af81e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective, power equipment, electronics and basic chemicals are highly dependent on China-EU trade.</b>From the perspective of foreign exports, the power equipment industry accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 41.24%, of which motors account for 18.91%, power supply equipment accounts for 19.79%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.55%; From the perspective of domestic imports, the power equipment industry accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 46.20%, of which motors account for 21.37%, power supply equipment accounts for 22.25%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.58%.</p><p><b>From the perspective of individual stocks, the top 100 companies with overseas business scale or proportion are mainly concentrated in the fields of electronics, home appliances and medicine.</b>Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the largest overseas business income, there are 18 appliance subsidiaries, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 3 optical optoelectronics companies and 4 semiconductor companies; There are 7 listed home appliance companies, including 3 black electricity companies and 4 white electricity companies. Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the highest proportion of overseas business revenue, there are 17 companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, including 14 medical devices, 2 chemical pharmaceuticals and 1 medical service; There are 14 companies in the electronics industry, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 2 optical optoelectronics companies and 2 semiconductor listed companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a02a7a7c245df32957dee0f005e2e48\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The economic pressure brought by the European debt problem may increase the EU's dependence on my country's trade. In the future, attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement.</b>As far as the content of the China-EU agreement is concerned, it mainly focuses on three aspects: market opening, fair competition and investment protection. The first aspect is market opening, emphasizing the relaxation of market access by both sides. In this respect, China has made unprecedented access commitments in many industries; The second aspect is fair competition. Both sides jointly promise to respect intellectual property rights, improve labor standards, improve standard formulation and maintain market order; The third aspect is investment protection. Both sides protect mutual investment, ensure a fair and transparent investment environment, and ensure clear supervision procedures. In May 2021, the European Parliament passed a bill to freeze the China-EU Investment Agreement, and the China-EU Agreement was shelved. However, with the increasing importance of the Chinese market for reviving the European economy, China-EU relations are expected to pick up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b944fbbc17b4fb6aa6d5e8e4ade8453\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2. RMB substitution + fundamental differentiation, stocks, bonds and exchanges in the Chinese market are expected to go out of the independent market</b></p><p><b>The fermentation of the European debt problem will start the \"Risk Off\" mode of global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune to it in the short term. But in the long run, the increase in the proportion of RMB's reserve currency will raise the exchange rate and asset value.</b>In the past 22 years, the US dollar has appreciated by 8.9% and 6.3% against other countries and the RMB against Europe and Japan respectively. Behind this round of currency appreciation is the competitive rotation of international reserve currencies; As the proportion of RMB in international currency reserves continues to increase, RMB and related assets will continue to appreciate in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad3d766fb509c5abb4d068ed0a422ed\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71a4770a0219ba65c4bb0323636807af\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1650252355349","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the time for European debt \"Minsky\" approaching? This time it's different</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the time for European debt \"Minsky\" approaching? This time it's different\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">李美岑投资策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-25 21:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The European Central Bank has joined the global tightening wave, and the phantom of European debt has haunted Italy.</b>In order to prevent inflation and the trend of the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank exceeded expectations in rate hike by 50BP on the evening of July 21. The euro zone bid farewell to the eight-year era of negative interest rates, and there is the possibility of continuing to collect water in September, October and December. As a member of the five European pig countries with a heavy debt burden, Italy is the most dangerous: 1) Debt has continued to increase rapidly since 2019, and the current debt ratio among the five European pig countries is close to 60%; 2) The economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 did not bring about economic improvement. Since 2019, GDP growth has continued to decline to 0%; 3) Rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate was as high as 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced the rate hike, the yield of Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to expand to around 236BP, gradually approaching the level during the European debt crisis in 2010.</p><p><b>Historically, the downgrade of credit rating and the rate hike of the European Central Bank have been important drivers of the intensification of the European debt crisis.</b>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of European Central Bank rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond of both countries jumped by 120-160BP, which was the \"behind-the-scenes\" of the intensified liquidity run. In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield of Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond jumped by only 20BP, far lower than during the rating downgrade. In addition, the core European countries represented by Germany did not provide timely assistance, and it was not until mid-2010 that the EU crisis management mechanism was established, which led to the liquidity run caused by European debt spreading from peripheral countries to the core countries represented by France.</p><p><b>Short-term risks are controllable. In the long run, the implementation effect of the European Central Bank's TPI is the top priority. Pay attention to the early warning of liquidity indicators and credit indicators.</b>The total outstanding debt of the five European pig countries in 2022 is about 350 billion euros. Compared with the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) disposable funds of about 360 billion euros, short-term risks are temporarily controllable. However, at the peak of debt repayment in 2023, the maturity scale of the five European pig countries is about 561.3 billion euros, of which Italy accounts for 63%, and the amount of debt repayment is huge. Although the currently launched TPI targeted bond purchase tool does not have a purchase ceiling, the specific implementation details are still relatively vague. If core countries such as Germany and France \"can't protect themselves\" due to economic problems, the rescue effect of the European Central Bank may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem is also facing uncertainty. Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit default and liquidity run, we will continue to pay attention to liquidity indicators (LIBOR-OIS spread) and credit indicators (credit default swap rate CDS and German-Italian 10-year Treasury Bond spread).</p><p><b>The European debt problem is \"crises coexist\" for China.</b>At the economic level, the EU is China's second largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in China's import and export growth. Under the last round of European debt impact, China's export growth rate dropped from 26.42% to 4.43%, and the import growth rate dropped from 32.99% to 1.39%; On the other hand, the economic pressure brought by the European debt problem may increase the EU's dependence on my country's trade. In the future, attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement. At the financial level, the fermentation of the European debt problem will start the \"Risk Off\" mode of global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune to it in the short term. But in the long run, with RMB substitution + fundamental differentiation, stocks, bonds and exchanges in the Chinese market are expected to go out of the independent market.</p><p><b>Risk warning: geopolitical crisis; Overseas rate hike exceeded expectations; The spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. The European Central Bank joins the global tightening wave, and concerns about European debt defaults resurface</b></p><p><b>1.1. Inflationary pressures have repeatedly hit new highs, and the \"negative interest rate era\" in the euro zone has become history</b></p><p><b>The rise in oil prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to record inflation in the euro zone, and the huge trade deficit has also pushed the euro to a 20-year low.</b>About 30% of the EU's oil imports come from Russia. After experiencing supply chain tensions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the year, and Europe and the United States imposed a partial crude oil embargo on Russia in May, the EU's crude oil imports from Russia have dropped by 20% compared with last year, and the gap between supply and demand continues to expand. The current inflation level in the euro zone has reached 8.6%, which is a record high since its establishment; The core CPI after excluding energy, food and other factors is 3.7%, which also shows the significant impact of energy prices on the euro zone. Due to the increase in import costs and weak external demand brought about by energy prices, the euro zone experienced the largest trade deficit since its establishment (32.4 billion euros). Even Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, experienced its first trade deficit in 30 years in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae99577318ca9108e9ff778ed2b142f7\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef865d7c8ef48b331a4ab89a4bc5492b\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In order to prevent inflation and the trend of the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank joined the global \"water collection mode\" and the euro zone bid farewell to the eight-year era of negative interest rates.</b>Since its establishment in 1998, the European Central Bank has adjusted its monetary policy with inflation rate as the core variable. In July 2021, the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy control strategy, and the monetary policy target changed from the original \"below but close to 2%\" to a symmetrical target of 2%. Now the inflation rate in the euro zone has far exceeded the target of 2%. Based on this, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 50 basis points on the evening of July 21st. So far, the eight-year negative interest rate in the euro zone ended before the third quarter. In addition, boosting the euro exchange rate is also one of the purposes of the European Central Bank's consideration of rate hike. At present, due to the huge trade deficit, the euro has fallen below 1: 1 against the US dollar, which is at a new low in 20 years. After the European Central Bank's rate hike 50BP, the euro jumped 90 points against the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1f314ac60faf81f63dc2224fdda9e6\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2. rate hike pushes up debt costs, and the phantom of European debt entangles Italy</b></p><p><b>The debt level of European countries continued to rise after the European debt crisis in 2010. This time, rate hike may further trigger the default risk of peripheral countries by pushing up borrowing costs.</b>Take the \"European Pig Five\" as an example. The current debt burden has already exceeded the level of the European debt crisis in 2010. Among them, Greece's national debt accounts for close to 200% of GDP, followed by Italy, Spain and Portugal, and the national debt accounts for around 120% of GDP. After the European Central Bank launched its first rate hike in July, there is the possibility of continuing to collect water in September, October and December. In the future, the debt service interest of countries in the euro zone will jump non-linearly, and the rate hike plan will expose heavily indebted countries to the potential risk of debt crisis due to rising borrowing costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec821604531a0bf44d93798410bbbda\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ab61b0445fde666357d205d28e915a\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Italy may be the most dangerous \"flammable product\" in this European debt problem.</b>Since 2019, Italy's debt has continued to increase rapidly, and the outstanding debt in the next 10 years will exceed 2 trillion euros, accounting for nearly 60% of the five European pig countries. At the same time, the economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 did not bring about economic improvement. In 2019, GDP growth continued to decline to 0%. Since then, the impact of the epidemic on the service industry has also seriously damaged the Italian economy. In addition, rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate was as high as 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced its rate hike, the market was generally worried that Italy would become the first \"bomb\" of the European debt default. The yield of Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the spread between Germany and Italy continued to expand to about 236BP, gradually approaching the level during the European debt crisis in 2010.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352a1e10163f43bc57f2ee2696fef298\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65ad6e7d00387f27f0f68e16301b7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The essence of the European debt crisis is a liquidity run in the entire euro zone</b></p><p><b>The European debt crisis is a derivative of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</b>Southern Europe, with weak endogenous growth, maintains the \"false prosperity\" of its economy with real estate and tourism all the year round under the hollow economic structure of manufacturing industry. The real estate and tourism boom brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis has sharply declined, cutting off the source of income in southern Europe. Banks in Ireland, Spain and other countries have to ask the government for help because of the formation of a large number of bad debts of real estate debts. Taking Ireland as an example, the local government injected at least 70 billion euros into the financial system, more than half of the GDP at that time. This also led to the dilemma that the government was unable to borrow under the subsequent European debt impact and had to seek help from the IMF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787d43a12dcb17ac7b010e11444e8d07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. In the context of cross-holding of Treasury Bond within the euro zone, the rating downgrade has become the trigger point of \"burning the company\"</b></p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 pushed Greece to a \"dead end\", and the downgrade of Greece was the first \"domino\" to derive the European debt crisis.</b>After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, Greece, which is highly dependent on foreign countries, can no longer enjoy the economic dividends brought by exports and real estate. At the same time, because the European Central Bank controls the dominance of currency and exchange rate, Greece cannot stimulate the economy through independent loose money or exchange rate devaluation. It has to choose to make a big Treasury Bond and expand fiscal expenditure. At the beginning of October, 2009, the newly appointed Greek Finance Minister announced that the previous government's debt was fraudulent. In fact, the fiscal deficit and public debt at that time accounted for 12.7% and 113% of GDP, far exceeding the 3% and 60% stipulated by the European Union. In December, the three major rating agencies downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating and gave a negative outlook, which directly led to a surge in Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond, a significant widening of the interest rate spread with Germany, and panic filled the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a918d6455be7c166b2c650eede522954\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be57e1656f3a830e584216fc4737818a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Successive \"thunderstorms\" in Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy have gradually led the debt crisis from the peripheral countries of the euro zone to the core countries.</b>The thunderstorm methods of the \"European Pig Five\" are different. Portugal followed Greece and increased its actual fiscal deficit to 8%. The market is worried that it will not be able to survive the upcoming debt repayment peak safely. Portugal's 10-year Treasury Bond once increased from 3.5%. Close to 14.2%. For Ireland, the real estate bubble is the \"initiator\". In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis caused an impact on European and American real estate. In order to save the five major banks that were about to go bankrupt, the Irish government's fiscal deficit ratio will be as high as 32% in 2010, and the ratio of public debt to GDP will be as high as 100%. The debt pressure will catch up with that of Greece, and the country's 10-year Treasury Bond will soar to 9%. In October 2011, France, the core country of the euro zone, was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Eyeing, the latter pointed out that France has the weakest debt performance among 3A-rated countries, and its sovereign debt situation continues to deteriorate. Subsequently, Italy's public debt share climbed to 120%, second only to Greece's level, and its sovereign rating was successively downgraded by rating agencies. As Italian, French and Spanish account for 55% of the Treasury Bond market in the euro zone, much higher than that of Greek, Irish and Portuguese (only 7% in total), the European debt problem has evolved from a local impact to a crisis in the whole euro zone at the end of 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9032ac6c07f356abceccf84c92b758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At the same time, the European debt crisis has escalated from sovereign countries to the level of commercial banks in the whole euro zone.</b>Commercial banks in the euro zone cross-hold a large number of \"European Pig Five\" Treasury Bond, and only French, German, British and Portuguese commercial banks hold more than 1/3 of the Greek holdings. With the soaring yield of Treasury Bond brought about by the downgrade of a series of sovereign credit ratings, the whole European commercial banks began to make large-scale provisions for bad debts, and the pressure of capital replenishment suddenly increased. Take Dexia Bank of Belgium as an example. The liquidity shock caused by European debt made it impossible to solve its risk exposure of more than 20 billion euros, and it was forced to become the first bank to fall. Other large European banks, such as Societe Generale,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>And others were also downgraded for holding a large amount of Greek government bonds.</p><p><b>2.2. Belated rescue measures also put the impact of European debt beyond control</b></p><p><b>The core European countries represented by Germany did not provide timely assistance, which led to the further escalation of the European debt crisis.</b>In fact, at the beginning of the European debt crisis, only Greece had debt problems. However, at that time, Germany adopted a passive bystander attitude, believing that Greece should first reform the social structure with high welfare and high deficit, and did not intend to continue to act as a \"cash machine\". At the beginning of 2010, Merkel's government also threatened to kick members who did not abide by fiscal discipline out of the euro zone. This tough attitude aggravated the market panic, and Ireland, Portugal and Italy, which also faced high debt problems, were all involved. Germany's tough attitude has also increased the rescue cost of the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e83452454edb9f244374becaeaaf6f\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd8858e0e6e97ce19a74299f23ab516\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In mid-2010, Germany realized the seriousness of the European debt crisis and began to establish the EU crisis governance mechanism. However, because it missed the best opportunity, the whole euro zone paid a higher cost.</b>In May 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel let go and was willing to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the euro, and finally decided to provide Greece with a three-year loan and credit guarantee of 110 billion euros. But at this time, it has been more than half a year since the impact of the Greek incident, and the chain reaction of European debt has been out of control. Since then, the ECB has had to inject more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity into the market through two rounds of three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs). The European Central Bank launched the Securities Market Program (SMP), which conducts weekly time deposit facilities to hedge the injected liquidity. As of September 28, 2012, the stock of government bonds purchased under the SMP program of the European Central Bank was 208.83 billion euros. This intervention effectively lowered the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond yield by 8BP. The European Central Bank eliminates the tail risk of the euro by purchasing sovereign bonds (OMT) in the secondary market. OMT purchases sovereign bonds with a maturity of 1 to 3 years on the premise of rescue plans such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the macro adjustment plan of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), with no scale ceiling and yield target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f726a41026ac863575ccad237c0ec5\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The core contradiction of the European debt problem lies in the monetary unification of the euro zone, but the fiscal disunity</b></p><p><b>High welfare expenditure forces European countries to rely heavily on bond issuance, but it is tantamount to \"drinking poison to quench thirst\" for peripheral countries with weak endogenous economic growth.</b>Europe is famous for its high welfare all over the world. Take Italy and Greece as examples. In 2009, the social welfare expenditure of the two countries accounted for 21% of GDP, while that of the United States and Canada was only 14.66% and 9.87% in the same period. At the same time, the industrial structure of the peripheral countries of the euro zone is unbalanced, most of them take real estate and services as their pillar industries, and the manufacturing industry is hollowed out. They have to borrow money to stimulate investment and consumption, so as to maintain an apparently \"peaceful\" but actually fragile economy. Therefore, the sudden rise in debt repayment pressure brought by European debt will inevitably take the lead in marginal countries with high welfare and high fiscal deficits. As early as 2007, Greece's fiscal expenditure had reached 6.7% of GDP, and Portugal and Spain were also around 5% of GDP, both exceeding the warning line of the euro zone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cda0d0996de5805a3e1b454690d34da\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71feaf044db90b2a18341d785a7f8306\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Joining the euro zone has given peripheral countries such as Greece a certain endorsement, enabling them to expand their fiscal deficits by \"free riding\" at low cost.</b>Due to the underdeveloped economy, the borrowing cost of peripheral countries before joining the euro zone is significantly higher than that of core countries such as Germany and France. However, after joining the euro, the market believes that the credit level of countries in the whole euro zone is the same. Before the outbreak of European debt in 2010, the yield level of 10-year Treasury Bond in the southern countries with poor economic conditions and the northern countries with perfect economic development was about 5%, which showed the market's \"unwarranted\" confidence in the euro zone. Therefore, the peripheral countries with weak economies could obtain high credit ratings by virtue of the shell of the euro zone and borrow heavily at a lower cost. All along, the core countries headed by Germany have become capital exporting countries, while the peripheral countries such as the \"European Pig Five\" have become capital inflow countries, and there is a long-term trade deficit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4957e68990c695b9351d3712298946\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250b57c451c5b1cb12b98dd3770c657\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Under the background that monetary policy cannot regulate the economy, the peripheral countries of the euro zone can only rely on fiscal stimulus, which eventually leads to the \"snowball\" of debt out of control.</b>The monetary policies of EU member states are uniformly formulated by the European Central Bank. Since its establishment, the latter has focused on maintaining the stability of the euro and has no obligation to manage the financial market. In other words, when the market needs expansionary monetary policy to regulate the economy, the European Central Bank will not stabilize the financial environment by giving priority to the depreciation of the euro. However, with the expansion of the influence of European debt, the European Central Bank had to act as the \"lender of last resort\" at the end of 2011, supplementing liquidity through open market operations. Taking Germany as an example, the Deutsche Bundesbank has provided nearly 500 billion euros in loans through the TARGET-2 system of the European Central Bank to reduce the repayment pressure of banks in heavily indebted countries in the euro zone.</p><p><b>2.4. International capital has played a role in \"fueling the flames\" in European debt</b></p><p><b>As early as the beginning of 2000, Wall Street was eyeing Greece, which \"borrowed money to survive\".</b>In 1999, Greece was rejected by the European Economic and Monetary Union because of inconsistent conditions: the Maastricht Treaty stipulated that the member countries of the euro zone should meet two conditions: first, all countries must control their annual deficits below 3% of GDP; Second, the Treasury Bond of each country must account for less than 60% of GDP. Greece's exchange rate of 1 to 1 between the euro and the dollar is compared with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Signing a currency swap transaction (at that time, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar was roughly 1: 0.9), this \"demonic agreement\" concealed a public debt of up to 1 billion euros for the Greek government, making the Greek deficit only 1.5% of GDP on the book (actually 4.1%). Greece met the criteria for becoming a member of the euro zone on the book, and joined the euro zone in 2001. But financial fraud can only cover up the problem, and the debt itself will not disappear. On the contrary, Greece has to create more currency swaps to cover up its debt and deficit, which increases its debt burden and makes Greece deeply mired in the debt vortex.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e21029ba71d609ae2dee610a906ec0\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to earning high commission remuneration, international investment banks have also tied the core countries of the euro zone to a \"thief ship\" through financial derivatives.</b>After completing the deal with Greece, Goldman Sachs purchased a 20-year credit default swap (CDS) of 1 billion euros from German banks to hedge the risk of Greek Treasury Bond, so that the underwriter can make up the deficit when there is a payment problem of Greek debt. As Germany is the largest economic entity in the euro zone, this move is equivalent to tying Germany to Greece's \"debt ship\". If the Greek government has a payment crisis and the debt chain breaks, Germany will have to pay for 1 billion euros of debt.</p><p><b>3. Is the \"Minsky moment\" of European debt approaching? ECB takes action, short-term risks are controllable</b></p><p><b>3.1. Credit rating downgrade and European Central Bank rate hike are important drivers of the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2010</b></p><p>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of European Central Bank rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond of both countries jumped by 120-160BP, which was the \"behind-the-scenes\" of the intensified liquidity run. In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield of Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond jumped by only 20BP, far lower than during the rating downgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab7de507966e0625a200fca71fe848c\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition, the European Central Bank misjudged the situation and tightened monetary policy prematurely, adding another fire to the European debt crisis.</b>In April 2011, the European Central Bank decided to end the emergency rescue to peripheral countries, raised the deposit facility interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, and in July, it rate hike to 75BP again, which further worsened the European debt crisis, and the yield of Greek Treasury Bond soared to about 30%, an increase of about 50%. In November 2011, the European Central Bank restarted the rescue measures of interest rate cuts, and with the remedy of non-traditional rescue tools, the euro zone economy gradually improved.</p><p><b>3.2. Comparison between the European debt crisis and the current ten points: short-term risks are controllable, and follow-up attention will be paid to the effect of the European Central Bank's \"fragmentation\" plan</b></p><p>At present, there has been no large-scale downgrade of sovereign credit rating in 2010, and the euro zone's ability to control risks has been enhanced. In the short term, European debt risks are still under control. In particular, the European Central Bank has significantly learned the \"lesson\" of not taking action in time during the last round of European debt shock. It has given the market a \"vaccination\" in advance and prepared a rescue plan, which has alleviated investors' current concerns to a certain extent. However, as the current pressure on inflation, economy and geopolitical issues facing Europe is significantly higher than that in 2010, the prospect of European debt is still unclear. We believe that the implementation effect of the follow-up ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan TPI is still the focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864b9d8c4a504c7047be2670827d0e15\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2. 1. The current improvement compared with the European debt crisis: risk tolerance and response speed have improved</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current period with the European debt crisis in 2010, we found five improvements:</b></p><p><b>1) Debt repayment costs decreased.</b>Although the current scale of government debt is further higher, the average interest rate on outstanding debt has decreased. During the European debt period in 2011, the average interest rate of Greece's outstanding debt was as high as 4.69%. At present, the average outstanding interest rates of euro zone countries are all lower than 3.50%, fluctuating around 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff2238505a03ecb2fe1baf7a811cdee0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a04e0995a13b1e48000ba117ca7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) The bad debt ratio decreased and the capital adequacy ratio increased.</b>From the perspective of risk resistance ability, the bad debt ratio of euro zone countries in this round of risk is below 10%, and the capital adequacy ratio is higher than 10%. During the European debt period, the capital adequacy ratio of Greece is lower than 0%, and the bad debt ratio is higher than 47%. Compared with the European debt crisis in 2010, European economies have better ability to resist risks in this round of crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ed6b576e5aaca9245552291f612b88\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) After the European debt crisis in 2011, the European Central Bank now has more experience in dealing with it.</b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde served as the president of IMF during the European debt crisis, and was the \"trouble terminator\" to solve the European debt crisis. After the announcement of the July rate hike, in order to cope with the significant concerns of the market after the European Central Bank proposed the monetary tightening plan, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting one week later to discuss the corresponding measures and put forward a proposal to launch a new bond purchase plan in July. The following month, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 50BP on July 21. At the same time, it launched a new bond purchase \"Transmission Protection Instrument\" (TPI: Transmission Protection Instrument) to prevent the \"fragmentation\" problem from exacerbating.</p><p><b>At present, the pressure of debt repayment is controllable, but under the peak of debt repayment in 23 years, if core countries such as Germany and France \"can't protect themselves\" due to economic problems, the rescue effect of the European Central Bank may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem is also facing uncertainty.</b>The total outstanding debt of the five European pig countries in 2022 is about 350 billion euros. Compared with the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) disposable funds of about 360 billion euros, short-term risks are temporarily controllable. However, heavily indebted countries will usher in the peak of debt repayment in 2023. The maturity scale of the five European pig countries is about 561.3 billion euros, of which Italy accounts for 63%. The amount of debt repayment is huge, and the risks cannot be underestimated. Judging from the current statement of the European Central Bank, the details of the TPI launched this time are still relatively vague, such as requiring applicant countries to meet four basic requirements, including 1) compliance with the EU fiscal framework; 2) There are no serious macroeconomic imbalances; 3) Fiscal and public debt sustainability; 4) Macroeconomic policies are sound and sustainable.</p><p>From another perspective, if the current TPI targeted bond purchase method is similar to the bond purchase policy of the Treasury Bond Direct Purchase Program (OMT) in the secondary market during the European debt period, it may need to comply with the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) principle: the loan guarantee amount is 165% of the capital contribution amount, and Germany and France, the countries with the largest contribution, will bear about 27% and 21% respectively. Considering that during the European debt crisis, the EU provided 60 billion euros of rescue funds and the IMF provided 240 billion euros of rescue funds, assuming that the EU and IMF give the same rescue this time, the remaining debt will be paid off in three years, and 150 million euros will need to be repaid every year. Germany and France need to contribute 668.2 billion euros and 519.8 billion euros each year within three years to repay their debts, which will account for about 18.7% and 16.2% of the GDP of Germany and France respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f37bb4992a0c0655c979378becf817\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4) Market sentiment has picked up after the action of the European Central Bank.</b>Despite a panic in sentiment following the European Central Bank's July rate hike announcement, the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 6% to 22,547.48. Within a week after that, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting, and the stock market picked up, with Italy's FTSE MIB index rising by 2%. On July 21, the European Central Bank exceeded expectations for rate hike by 50BP and launched TPI's new bond purchase program. The market reaction was less intense than expected, with Italy's FTSE MIB index closing slightly higher by 0.65% on the second day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4477efa53d7022dd5b39eb52c670e582\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) In this round of risk, the proportion of foreign holdings of Treasury Bond from euro zone countries has decreased slightly.</b>Therefore, the risk of the chain reaction of foreign capital \"running away\" in the event of a crisis and causing the soaring Treasury Bond rate is slightly weakened. Take Spain and Portugal as examples. By the end of last year, 74% of Spain and Portugal's Treasury Bond were held by domestic commercial banks and 82% of non-bank institutions respectively. In 2011, only about 64% and 67% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic capital respectively. The proportion of Chinese debt held by Italy, Greece and Ireland in the current and European debt crisis is basically the same as that during the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19d650708bc4e5d23e75e4068f23949\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36208dc67aed06319c7fcc15cd42435\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2. 2. Compared with the current deterioration of the European debt crisis: the scale of debt is rising, and the economic pressure may lead to a decline in rescue capabilities</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current period with the European debt crisis in 2010, we found that five points deteriorated:</b></p><p><b>1) The current economic pressure facing the euro zone has increased significantly compared with the previous round. As the \"economic locomotive\" of the euro zone, Germany has experienced a trade deficit of 1 billion euros for the first time in 30 years, and its ability to rescue the crisis has declined.</b>During the European debt crisis, the most important external shock factor was the global economic crisis in 2008, and the global GDP showed zero growth rate for the first time. Compared with this round of risks, the average GDP growth rate in the past two years was 3%, which was weaker than the pre-European debt economic level. The euro zone is facing the most severe geopolitical crisis since World War II, and the geopolitical risk index (GPR) is at a record high, above 300; In addition, Europe, which has long relied on Russian imports, has been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and its natural gas, oil, electricity and consumer goods prices have soared to US $34.35/million British thermal units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65c581f52939de86298cb6811327bd8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c730055545b283140c09b818d316c89c\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8357be18d5dce44af50c9c351e1de7\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ce2e58fbfb8e2b9cfd2024a149fbcc\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Eurozone countries are currently facing unprecedented high inflationary pressures.</b>The inflation level in the euro zone is gradually approaching and rising, and is now much higher than the previous level of European debt. The harmonized CPI (HICP) is as high as 8.6% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in history. In addition, the dual structure of fiscal and monetary policy separation among euro zone countries has not changed, and the fact that the \"fragmentation\" and unbalanced development among euro zone countries has not been improved has also brought resistance to inflation adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a7cb88bc64070c0b1c07beead5e0e2\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2092286c9ee47d57e20c21d52bf088\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The scale of euro zone debt remains high.</b>The ratio of national debt to GDP of peripheral countries in the euro zone is close to and exceeds the level in 2009, and the balance of government outstanding debt has gradually increased from 600 billion euros during the European debt period to 1 trillion euros now.</p><p><b>4) The euro fell to record lows and capital outflows continued.</b>In this round of debt risk, the euro weakened compared with the European debt period. The highest EUR/USD was 1.6 in history, and the lowest EUR/USD was 1.2 in the European debt period. Now the euro is weakening, and the EUR/USD has fallen below 1: 1, the lowest in history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5179b7a9e5ea3281459cc2ce33ca324c\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d46dde1623095785c85d21ee8e864a8\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) The proportion of marginal bonds held by European commercial banks increased by 5%.</b>During the European debt crisis, commercial banks in the euro zone cross-held a large number of heavily indebted Treasury Bond. Under the consequences of soaring Treasury Bond yields caused by the downgrade of sovereign credit rating, European commercial banks gradually collapsed and capital pressure suddenly increased. In this round of risks, the proportion of sovereign debt held by commercial banks in the euro zone has increased, and banks are facing greater capital risks. Take Portugal as an example. The proportion of Portuguese sovereign debt held by major European commercial banks in the country's sovereign debt has increased by about 5% compared with the European debt period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a22935ad810cdb8c0a9b8cd2f310a0\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3. The implementation effect of the European Central Bank's TPI is the top priority, paying attention to liquidity indicators and credit indicator early warnings</b></p><p>In order to avoid the impact of the euro zone bond market during the central bank's rate hike, the European Central Bank announced the rate hike 50BP, and at the same time launched the \"Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)\" to target and unlimited new bond purchase plan to control the borrowing costs of heavily indebted euro zone governments such as Italy, and pass monetary policy to all euro zone countries to avoid the aggravation of \"fragmentation\" problems. However, it is worth noting that, unlike 2011, as Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, is also plagued by economic recession, its enthusiasm for the European Central Bank's rescue plan may be greatly reduced. Whether the rescue capacity, which accounts for about 21% of the ESM rescue plan funds in the European debt crisis, can be continued is also worthy of follow-up attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bf00b93ba00cdcc63429155976e045\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit default and liquidity run, liquidity indicators and credit indicators have certain warning functions:</b></p><p>1) Liquidity indicators, such as the euro LIBOR-OIS spread, should arouse vigilance when approaching 0.5%, and there may be chain debt risk exposure caused by insufficient inter-bank liquidity.</p><p>2) Credit indicators, for example, when the credit default swap rate CDS is higher than 150, it indicates that the market is worried about sovereign credit risk.</p><p>3) The interest rate spread between core countries and peripheral countries in the euro zone has widened to more than 300BP. Italy may be the \"first domino\" of this round of European debt problem. The yield spread of 10-year Treasury Bond in Italy, Germany and Italy has gradually widened to more than 200BP. If the spread gradually approaches 300BP during the European debt crisis in 2010, we should be alert.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768567bc6fe0f18d58e5569515433dc8\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed5c286d9ae323db5bab55def20c9a1\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The European debt problem is \"crises coexist\" for China.</b></p><p><b>4.1. The turmoil in Europe affects China-EU trade in the short term, but the Chinese market is increasingly important for reviving the European economy</b></p><p><b>The EU is my country's second largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth.</b>In 2021, my country's exports to the EU will reach US $518.661 billion, accounting for 15.42%; The import value was US $309.931 billion, accounting for 11.54%. The potential debt problem in the euro zone may have an impact on China's imports and exports in the future. Historically, when the economic pressure in the euro zone was relatively high, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2010, and the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the imports and exports between my country and the EU all turned from positive to negative year-on-year. At the same time, it also has a great drag on my country's import and export trade. Under the last round of European debt impact, from Q1 2011 to Q3 2012, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone dropped from 57.93 to 45.07. During the same period, my country's export growth rate dropped from 26.42% to 4.43%, and the import growth rate dropped from 32.99% to 1.39%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b59ac53cd28cc68ff5dea567184430e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c61d802f396d39129ace35cf2af81e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective, power equipment, electronics and basic chemicals are highly dependent on China-EU trade.</b>From the perspective of foreign exports, the power equipment industry accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 41.24%, of which motors account for 18.91%, power supply equipment accounts for 19.79%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.55%; From the perspective of domestic imports, the power equipment industry accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 46.20%, of which motors account for 21.37%, power supply equipment accounts for 22.25%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.58%.</p><p><b>From the perspective of individual stocks, the top 100 companies with overseas business scale or proportion are mainly concentrated in the fields of electronics, home appliances and medicine.</b>Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the largest overseas business income, there are 18 appliance subsidiaries, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 3 optical optoelectronics companies and 4 semiconductor companies; There are 7 listed home appliance companies, including 3 black electricity companies and 4 white electricity companies. Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the highest proportion of overseas business revenue, there are 17 companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, including 14 medical devices, 2 chemical pharmaceuticals and 1 medical service; There are 14 companies in the electronics industry, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 2 optical optoelectronics companies and 2 semiconductor listed companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a02a7a7c245df32957dee0f005e2e48\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The economic pressure brought by the European debt problem may increase the EU's dependence on my country's trade. In the future, attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement.</b>As far as the content of the China-EU agreement is concerned, it mainly focuses on three aspects: market opening, fair competition and investment protection. The first aspect is market opening, emphasizing the relaxation of market access by both sides. In this respect, China has made unprecedented access commitments in many industries; The second aspect is fair competition. Both sides jointly promise to respect intellectual property rights, improve labor standards, improve standard formulation and maintain market order; The third aspect is investment protection. Both sides protect mutual investment, ensure a fair and transparent investment environment, and ensure clear supervision procedures. In May 2021, the European Parliament passed a bill to freeze the China-EU Investment Agreement, and the China-EU Agreement was shelved. However, with the increasing importance of the Chinese market for reviving the European economy, China-EU relations are expected to pick up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b944fbbc17b4fb6aa6d5e8e4ade8453\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2. RMB substitution + fundamental differentiation, stocks, bonds and exchanges in the Chinese market are expected to go out of the independent market</b></p><p><b>The fermentation of the European debt problem will start the \"Risk Off\" mode of global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune to it in the short term. But in the long run, the increase in the proportion of RMB's reserve currency will raise the exchange rate and asset value.</b>In the past 22 years, the US dollar has appreciated by 8.9% and 6.3% against other countries and the RMB against Europe and Japan respectively. Behind this round of currency appreciation is the competitive rotation of international reserve currencies; As the proportion of RMB in international currency reserves continues to increase, RMB and related assets will continue to appreciate in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad3d766fb509c5abb4d068ed0a422ed\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71a4770a0219ba65c4bb0323636807af\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_vDwqOA1KUM4bEpA0I7haQ\">李美岑投资策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e44b706229c298db732256920d2ace","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_vDwqOA1KUM4bEpA0I7haQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128143","content_text":"欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为债务负担较重的欧猪五国一员，意大利最危险：1）2019年以来债务持续高增，当前在欧猪五国中债务占比接近六成；2）经济状况也在恶化，2018年新政府上台并未带来经济的改善，2019年以来GDP增速继续下滑至0%；3）民粹主义横行、通胀压力加剧均带来经济稳定性下降。2020年年底，意大利失业率高达9.15%。欧央行宣布加息后，意大利10年期国债收益率当即飙升至4.14%，德意两国利差也持续扩大至236BP左右，逐步接近2010年欧债危机时期水平。历史上来看，信用评级下调和欧央行加息是欧债危机加剧的重要推手。如果我们以希腊和葡萄牙10年期国债收益率在欧债危机期间的表现为例，四轮主权信用评级下调、两轮欧央行加息后，两个国10年期国债都出现120-160BP的跳升，是流动性挤兑加剧的“幕后黑手”。实际上，在2010年9月底希腊宣布财政问题时，希腊10年期国债收益率的跳升幅度仅20BP，远低于评级下调期间。此外，以德国为代表的欧洲核心国并未及时援助，直至2010年中才开始建立欧盟危机治理机制，导致欧债引发的流动性挤兑从边缘国蔓延至以法国为代表的核心国。短期风险可控，长期来看欧央行TPI的实施效果是重中之重，关注流动性指标和信用指标预警。欧猪五国在2022年未偿债务共计约3500亿欧元，对比当下欧洲稳定机制（ESM）可支配资金约3600亿欧元，短期风险暂时可控。但2023年偿债高峰下，欧猪五国到期规模约5613亿欧元，其中意大利就占据了63%，偿债体量巨大。当前推出的TPI定向购债工具尽管不设购买上限，但在具体实施细节上仍较为模糊。若德法等核心国因经济问题“自身难保”，欧央行的救助效果可能大打折扣，欧债问题也面临不确定。由于欧债问题本质上由信用违约和流动性挤兑造成的，后续持续关注流动性指标（LIBOR-OIS利差）与信用指标（信用违约互换利率CDS与德国-意大利10年期国债利差）。欧债问题对我国来说“危机并存”。经济层面，欧盟是我国第二大贸易伙伴，欧洲经济承压可能会导致我国进出口增速放缓，上一轮欧债冲击下，我国的出口增速从26.42%下至4.43%，进口增速从32.99%下跌至1.39%；另一方面，欧债问题带来的经济压力，可能会提升欧盟对我国贸易依赖度，未来应关注中欧协定的重启可能性。金融层面，欧债问题发酵将使全球金融资产开启“Risk Off”模式，A股市场短期也无法独善其身。但长期看，人民币替代+基本面分化，中国市场股债汇有望走出独立行情。风险提示：地缘政治危机；海外加息超预期；疫情扩散超预期。正文1.欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债违约担忧再起1.1.通胀压力屡创新高，欧元区“负利率时代”成为历史俄乌冲突引发的油价攀升，导致欧元区通胀历史新高，巨额贸易逆差也使欧元跌至20年以来新低。欧盟进口的石油约有30%来自于俄罗斯。在经历了年初俄乌冲突导致的供应链紧张，以及欧美5月对俄实施部分原油禁运后，欧盟从俄罗斯进口的原油相比去年已下降20%，供需缺口持续仍在扩大。欧元区当前的通胀水平已达到8.6%，处于成立以来的历史新高；而剔除能源、食品等因素后的核心CPI为3.7%，这也显示了能源价格对于欧元区的显著影响。能源价格带来的进口成本推升以及外需疲弱，欧元区出现了成立以来最庞大的贸易逆差（324亿欧元），连欧洲经济“火车头”德国也在5月出现了30年以来首次贸易逆差的情况。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行加入全球“收水模式”，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代。自98年成立以来，欧洲央行以通货膨胀率为核心变量调整货币政策。2021年7月，欧洲央行调整了货币政策调控策略，货币政策目标由原来的“低于但接近2%”变为2%的对称目标。如今欧元区的通货膨胀率已远超2%的目标，基于此，欧央行在7月21日晚宣布加息50个基点，至此，为期8年的欧元区负利率在第三季度前结束。此外，提振欧元汇率也是欧央行考虑加息的目的之一。当前由于巨额贸易逆差，欧元兑美元已跌破1：1，处于二十年以来新低，而在欧央行加息50BP后，欧元兑美元跳升90点。1.2.加息推升负债成本，欧债魅影缠绕意大利欧洲各国债务水平在2010年欧债危机后仍持续走高，此次加息可能会因推高借贷成本，进一步触发边缘国的违约风险。以“欧猪五国”为例，当下债务负担早已超过2010年欧债危机时的水平。其中，希腊国家债务占GDP比例接近200%，意大利，西班牙和葡萄牙紧随其后，国家债务占GDP比例在120%附近波动。欧央行在7月开启第一次加息后，9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。未来欧元区各国偿债利息将会非线性跃升，加息计划将使重债国面临因借贷成本升高而出现债务危机的潜在风险。意大利可能是本次欧债问题中最危险的“易燃品”。2019年以来，意大利债务持续高增，未来10年未偿债务规模超过2万亿欧元，在欧猪五国中占比接近六成。同时经济状况也在恶化，2018年新政府上台并未带来经济的改善，2019年GDP增速继续下滑至0%，此后疫情对服务业的冲击也使意大利经济受损严重。此外，民粹主义横行、通胀压力加剧均带来经济稳定性下降。2020年年底，意大利失业率高达9.15%。欧央行宣布加息后，市场普遍担忧意大利将成为此次欧债违约的第一个“炸弹”，意大利10年期国债收益率当即飙升至4.14%，德意两国利差也持续扩大至236BP左右，逐步接近2010年欧债危机时期水平。2.欧债危机的本质是整个欧元区的流动性挤兑欧债危机是2008年次贷危机的衍生。内生增长较弱的南欧在制造业空心化的经济结构下，常年以房地产和旅游业维持本国经济的“虚假繁荣”。次贷危机带来的地产和旅游景气急速回落，切断了南欧的收入来源。爱尔兰、西班牙等国的银行由于形成了大量的地产债务坏账，不得不向政府求助。以爱尔兰为例，当地政府向金融体系注入了至少700亿欧元，超过当时GDP的一半规模，这也导致了政府在后续欧债冲击下无力举债、不得不向IMF求助的困境。2.1.欧元区内部交叉持有国债的背景下，评级下调成为“火烧连营”的触发点2008年次贷危机将希腊推上“绝路”，希腊评级下调是推导欧债危机的第一块“多米诺骨牌”。08年次贷危机后，对外依存度较高的希腊无法再享受出口和房地产带来的经济红利。同时，由于欧央行把控了货币和汇率的主导权，希腊无法通过独立的宽松货币或者汇率贬值的方式来刺激经济，唯有选择大发国债、扩大财政支出。2009年10月初，新上任的希腊财政部长宣布前任政府债务作假，实际上当时的财政赤字和公共债务占GDP的比例高达12.7%和113%，已经远超欧盟规定的3%和60%。12月，三大评级机构纷纷下调希腊主权信用评级，并且给予负面展望，直接导致希腊10年期国债出现飙升，与德国的利差显著走阔，恐慌情绪充满着市场。葡萄牙、爱尔兰 、西班牙以及意大利的接连“暴雷”，逐步将债务危机从欧元区边缘国引向核心国。“欧猪五国”的暴雷方式有所不同，葡萄牙紧随希腊也提高了实际财政赤字至8%，市场担忧其无法平安渡过即将到来的偿债高峰，葡萄牙10年期国债从3.5%一度接近14.2%。对于爱尔兰来说，房地产泡沫则是“始作俑者”。08年次贷危机导致欧美地产受到冲击，爱尔兰政府为了拯救即将破产的五大银行，2010年财政赤字率将高达32%，公共债务占GDP比例高达100%，负债压力赶超希腊，本国10年期国债飚至9%。2011年10月，欧元区核心国家——法国被穆迪盯上，后者提出法国在3A评级国家中债务表现最弱，主权债务状况持续恶化。随后，意大利的公共债务占比攀升至120%，仅次于希腊水平，被评级机构陆续下调主权评级。由于意大利、法国以及西班牙在欧元区国债市场的规模占比高达55%，远高于希腊、爱尔兰与葡萄牙三国（合计仅7%），欧债问题在2011年底已从局部冲击演变成为整个欧元区的危机。同时，欧债危机还从主权国家升级至整个欧元区商业银行层面。欧元区商业银行交叉持有大量的“欧猪五国”国债，仅法国、德国、英国和葡萄牙四国商业银行对希腊的持有占比就超过1/3。随着一列主权信用等级下调带来的国债收益率飙升，整个欧洲商业银行都开始出现大规模的坏账计提，资本补充压力骤然提升。以比利时德克夏银行为例，欧债导致的流动性冲击使其无法解决超过200亿欧元的风险敞口，被迫成为首家倒下的银行。其他欧洲大型银行，诸如法兴银行、法国巴黎银行等也因持有大量希腊公债而被下调评级。2.2.迟来的救助措施也使得欧债的冲击超出控制以德国为代表的欧洲核心国并未及时援助，导致欧债危机进一步升级。实际上，在欧债危机初期仅希腊一国出现债务问题，但当时德国采取消极旁观态度，认为希腊首先应该对高福利与高赤字的社会结构进行改革，并不打算继续充当“取款机”的角色。2010年年初，默克尔政府还扬言将不遵守财政纪律的成员踢出欧元区，这一强硬态度加剧了市场恐慌，同样面对高债务问题的爱尔兰、葡萄牙以及意大利都被卷入其中。德国的强硬态度也提高了欧债危机的救助成本。德国在2010年年中认识到欧债危机的严重性，开始建立欧盟危机治理机制，但由于错过了最佳时机还是使整个欧元区付出了更高的成本。2010年5月，德国总理默克尔松口，愿意肩负维持欧元稳定的责任，最终决定向希腊提供1100亿欧元的三年期贷款和信用担保。但此时已经距离希腊事件冲击超过半年，欧债的连锁反应已出现失控。此后，欧洲央行不得不通过两轮三年期的长期再融资操作（LTROs）向市场注入超过1万亿欧元的流动性。欧洲央行推出证券市场计划（SMP），每周进行定期存款工具以对冲注入的流动性，截至2012年9月28日, 欧央行SMP计划下买入的政府债券存量为2088.3亿欧元。这一干预有效地将希腊10年期国债收益率降低8BP。欧洲央行通过在二级市场上购买主权债券（OMT），消除欧元的尾部风险，OMT以欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）及欧洲稳定机制（ESM）的宏观调整计划等救助计划为前提，购买1至3年期的主权债，无规模上限和收益率目标。2.3.欧债问题的核心矛盾在于欧元区货币统一，但财政不统一高福利支出迫使欧洲各国高度依赖发债，但对于经济内生增长较弱的边缘国来说无异于“饮鸩止渴”。欧洲以高福利著称全球，以意大利和希腊为例，两国在2009年社会福利支出占GDP比重高达21%，而同期美国和加拿大仅为14.66%和9.87%。与此同时，欧元区边缘国家产业结构不平衡，大多以房地产、服务为支柱产业，制造业空心化，不得不通过举债来拉动投资、刺激消费，以此来维持表面“祥和”但实际脆弱的经济。因此，欧债带来的偿债压力骤升不可避免地率先出现在高福利、高财政赤字的边缘国。早在2007年，希腊财政支出已达到GDP的6.7%，葡萄牙和西班牙也在GDP的5%左右，均超过欧元区警戒线。加入欧元区给予了希腊等边缘国一定的背书，使其能够以低成本“搭便车”的方式来扩大财政赤字。边缘国家由于经济欠发达，在未加入欧元区之前的借债成本显著高于德法这样的核心国家。但加入欧元后，市场认为整个欧元区中各国的信用水平一致。在2010年欧债爆发之前，经济状况欠缺的南部国家与经济发展完善的北部国家在10年期国债的收益率水平都为5%左右，显示了市场对于欧元区“莫须有”的信心，因而经济较弱的边缘国可以凭借欧元区外壳获得高信用评级，以更低的成本大肆举债。一直以来，以德国为首的核心国家成为资本输出国，而“欧猪五国”这样的边缘国家成为资本流入国，存在长期的贸易逆差。在无法通过货币政策来调控经济的背景下，欧元区边缘国只能依赖财政刺激，最终导致债务“滚雪球”失控。欧盟成员国的货币政策由欧洲央行统一制定，后者在成立以来的重点是保持欧元的稳定，并没有对于金融市场的管理义务。换一句话说，当市场需要扩张性货币政策来调控经济时，欧央行在优先考虑到欧元贬值的情况并不会出手稳定金融环境。但随着欧债影响范围的扩大，欧央行在2011年底不得不充当“最后贷款人”的角色，通过公开市场操作给予流动性补充。以德国为例，德意志联邦银行通过欧央行的TARGET-2系统提供了近5000亿欧元的贷款，以此来降低欧元区重债国银行的偿付压力。2.4.国际资本在欧债中起到了“推波助澜”的作用华尔街早在2000年初就盯上了“举债度日”的希腊。1999年，希腊因为条件不符而被欧洲经济货币同盟拒之门外：《马斯特里赫特条约》规定欧元区成员国要满足两个条件：第一，各国必须将年度赤字控制在GDP占比的3%以下；第二，各国国债占GDP总值须在60%以下。希腊以欧元兑美元1比1的汇率与高盛签订货币掉期交易（当时欧元兑美元汇率大致为1：0.9），这一“恶魔的约定”为希腊政府掩饰了一笔高达10亿欧元的公共债务，使希腊赤字从账面上看仅为GDP的1.5％（实际为4.1%），希腊账面上符合成为欧元区成员国的标准，2001年加入欧元区。但是财政作假仅仅只能掩盖问题，债务本身并不会消失。相反，希腊不得不制造更多的货币掉期交易掩饰债务和赤字，这加重了希腊的债务负担，使希腊深陷债务漩涡无法自拔。除了赚取高额的佣金报酬以外，国际投行还通过金融衍生品将欧元区核心国家绑上了“贼船”。高盛在完成与希腊的交易后，向德国银行购买了20年期的10亿欧元信用违约互换（CDS）来对冲希腊国债风险，以便在希腊债务出现支付问题时由承保方补足亏空。由于德国是欧元区最大的经济实体，此举相当于将德国绑在了希腊的“债务巨轮”上。如果希腊政府出现支付危机，债务链条断裂，德国将不得不为10亿欧元债务买单。3.欧债“明斯基时刻”将至？欧央行出手，短期风险可控3.1.信用评级下调和欧央行加息是2010年欧债危机加剧的重要推手如果我们以希腊和葡萄牙10年期国债收益率在欧债危机期间的表现为例，四轮主权信用评级下调、两轮欧央行加息后，两个国10年期国债都出现120-160BP的跳升，是流动性挤兑加剧的“幕后黑手”。实际上，在2010年9月底希腊宣布财政问题时，希腊10年期国债收益率的跳升幅度仅20BP，远低于评级下调期间。此外，欧洲央行误判形势，过早收紧货币政策，为欧债危机再添一把火。2011年4月，欧洲央行决定结束对边缘国的紧急救助，将存款便利利率由0.25%提高到0.50%，并在7月再次加息至75BP，致使欧债危机进一步恶化，希腊国债收益率飙升至30%左右，升高约50%，2011年11月，欧洲央行重新开始降息救助措施，再加之非传统救助工具的补救，欧元区经济逐渐有所好转。3.2.欧债危机与当前十点比较：短期风险可控，后续关注欧央行“碎片化”方案效果当前并未出现2010年主权信用评级大规模下调的情况，欧元区控制风险能力增强，短期来看欧债风险仍处于可控范围。尤其是欧央行在当前显著吸取上一轮欧债冲击期间没有及时出手的“教训”，已提前为市场打“预防针”且准备好救助方案，一定程度上缓解了投资者目前的担忧。但由于当前欧洲面临的通胀、经济以及地缘问题等方面的压力显著高于2010年，欧债的前景仍不明朗，我们认为后续欧央行“碎片化”方案TPI的实施效果仍然是重点。3.2.1.当前相较欧债危机的改善：风险承受能力、应对速度均有所提升对比当下与2010年欧债危机期间，我们发现五点改善：1）偿债成本下降。尽管当前政府债务规模进一步高企，但未偿还债务的平均利率有所降低。2011年欧债期间，希腊未偿还债务平均利率高达4.69%，而当前，欧元区各国未偿还平均利率皆低于3.50%，在3%左右波动。2）坏账率下降、资本充足率提升。从抵御风险能力看，本轮风险欧元区国家坏账率均处于10%以下，资本充足率高于10%，欧债期间希腊资本充足率低于0%，坏账率高于47%，相较2010年欧债危机，欧洲经济体在此轮危机中有更好的抵御风险能力。3）欧央行经过2011年欧债危机，当前更有应对经验。欧洲央行行长拉加德在欧债危机时期担任IMF总裁，是解决欧债危机的“麻烦终结者”。在宣布7月加息后，为了应对市场在欧央行提出货币收紧计划之后出现的显著担忧，时隔一周欧洲央行即召开紧急会议讨论对应措施，提出在7月推出新债券购买计划的提案。随后1个月，欧央行于7月21日宣布加息50BP，与此同时，推出新债券购买“传导保护机制”（TPI：Transmission Protection Instrument）以防止“碎片化”问题加剧。当前偿债压力可控，但23年偿债高峰下，若德法等核心国因经济问题“自身难保”，欧央行的救助效果可能大打折扣，欧债问题也面临不确定。欧猪五国在2022年未偿债务共计约3500亿欧元，对比当下欧洲稳定机制（ESM）可支配资金约3600亿欧元，短期风险暂时可控。但2023年重债国将迎来偿债高峰，欧猪五国到期规模约5613亿欧元，其中意大利占就据了63%，偿债体量巨大，风险不容小觑。从当前欧央行的表态来看，此次推出的TPI在细节上仍比较模糊，例如要求申请国满足四项基本要求，包括1）遵守欧盟财政框架；2）没有严重的宏观经济失衡；3）财政与公共债务可持续；4）宏观经济政策健全且可持续。另一个角度来看，如果当前TPI定向购债的方式类似于欧债期间二级市场国债直接购买计划（OMT）的购债政策，可能需要符合欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）和欧洲稳定机制（ESM）的原则：贷款担保额度为出资额度的165%，出资最多的国家德国和法国将各自承担约27%和21%。考虑到欧债危机期间欧盟救助提供救助资金600亿欧元，IMF提供2400亿欧元救助资金，假设此次欧盟和IMF给出同等救助，剩余债务分摊至3年还清，每年需要偿还1.5亿欧元，德、法需要在3年内每年各自出资6682亿欧元和5198亿欧元才能偿还债务，这笔资金将分别约占据德国和法国GDP18.7%和16.2%，为核心国家带来沉重的负担。4）市场情绪在欧央行行动后有所回暖。尽管在欧洲央行宣布7月加息后，市场情绪出现恐慌，意大利富时MIB指数下跌6%至22,547.48。此后一周内，欧洲央行召开紧急会议，股市有所回暖，意大利富时MIB指数上涨2%。7月21日，欧洲央行超预期加息50BP，并推出的TPI新债券购买计划。市场反应不如预期激烈，意大利富时MIB指数在第二天小幅收涨0.65%。5）本轮风险外国持有欧元区国家国债占比稍有降低。因此，发生危机时外国资本“跑路“而造成国债率飙升的连锁反应的危险略微减弱。以西班牙和葡萄牙为例，截至去年年底，西班牙和葡萄牙国债的74%被和82%分别本国商业银行和非银行机构持有，在2011年时期其国债仅64%和67%左右分别被本国资本持有。而意大利、希腊和爱尔兰在当前和欧债危机中国债持有比例与欧债危机期间基本一致。3.2.2.当前相较欧债危机的恶化：债务规模攀升，经济承压可能导致救助能力下降对比当下与2010年欧债危机期间，我们发现五点恶化：1）当下欧元区面临的经济压力相较上一轮显著提升，作为欧元区“经济火车头“的德国，出现三十年以来的首次贸易逆差10亿欧元，对危机救助能力下降。欧债危机时期，最主要的外部冲击因素是08年全球经济危机，全球GDP出现首次零增速，对比此轮风险，近两年GDP平均增速3%，比欧债前经济水平更弱。欧元区面临自二战以来最严峻的地缘政治危机，地缘政治风险指数（GPR）处历年高位，高于300；此外，长期依靠俄罗斯进口的欧洲遭受俄乌冲突波及，其天然气、石油、电力及消费品价格大涨至34.35美元/百万英热单位。2）欧元区国家当前面临空前的高通胀压力。欧元区通胀水平逐渐靠近走高，现远高于欧债之前的水平，调和CPI（HICP）同比高达8.6%，达历史最高水平。此外，欧元区国家之间财政、货币政策分离的二元结构没有改变，欧元区国家之间“碎片化”和不平衡的发展没有得到改善的事实也为通胀调节带来阻力。3）欧元区债务规模仍在高位。欧元区边缘国国家债务占GDP比例接近并超过2009年时的水平，政府未偿还债务余额也从欧债期间的6千亿欧元逐渐上升到现在的1万亿欧元。4）欧元跌至历史新低，资本外流持续。在本轮债务风险中，欧元较欧债期间走弱，欧元兑美元在历史上最高为1.6，在欧债期间最低为1.2，如今欧元走弱，欧元兑美元跌破1：1，处历史最低点。5）欧洲商业银行持有的边缘国债券占比提升5%。欧债危机时欧元区商业银行交叉持有大量的重债国国债，在主权信用等级下调带来的国债收益率飙升的恶果下，欧洲商业银行逐渐崩盘，资本压力骤然提升。在此轮风险中，商业银行持有欧元区内国家主权债的比重上升，银行面临更大的资本风险。以葡萄牙为例，欧洲主要商业银行持有葡萄牙主权债务占该国主权债务比例比欧债时期增加了5%左右。3.3.欧央行TPI的实施效果是重中之重，关注流动性指标和信用指标预警为了避免欧元区债券市场在央行加息时遭受冲击，欧洲央行在宣布加息50BP的同时，推出“传输保护工具（TPI）”来定向且不限规模的新债购买计划，以控制意大利等负债累累的欧元区政府的借贷成本，将货币政策传递到所有欧元区国家，避免“碎片化”问题加剧。但值得注意的是，与2011年不同，由于此次欧洲经济“火车头”—德国也饱受经济衰退的困扰，对于此次欧央行救助计划的积极性可能会大打折扣，在欧债危机中出资占ESM救助计划资金约21%的救助能力是否能够延续也值得后续关注。由于欧债问题本质上由信用违约和流动性挤兑造成的，流动性指标与信用指标具备一定示警作用：1）流动性指标，例如欧元LIBOR-OIS利差逼近0.5%时应该引起警惕，可能存在银行间流动性不足导致的连锁债务风险暴露。2）信用指标，例如当信用违约互换利率CDS高于150，预示着市场对于主权信用风险产生担忧。3）欧元区核心国家与边缘国家的利差走阔至300BP以上。意大利可能是本轮欧债问题的“第一块多米诺骨牌” ，意大利德国意大利10年期国债收益率利差逐渐走阔至200BP以上，若利差逐渐逼近2010年欧债危机时期的300BP，应加以警觉。4.欧债问题对我国来说“危机并存”4.1.欧洲动荡短期影响中欧贸易，但中国市场对于重振欧洲经济而言重要性增强欧盟是我国第二大贸易伙伴，欧洲经济承压可能会导致我国进出口增速放缓。2021年我国对欧盟出口规模达5186.61亿美元，占比15.42%；进口金额为3099.31亿美元，占比11.54%。欧元区潜在的债务问题后续可能会对中国进出口产生影响。历史上来看，当欧元区经济压力较大时，例如2008年次贷危机、2010年欧债危机以及2020年疫情冲击期间，我国与欧盟的进出口同比均出现了由正转负的情况，同时也对我国进出口贸易也产生极大拖累。上一轮欧债冲击下，从2011年Q1到2012年Q3，欧元区的制造业PMI从57.93下滑至45.07，同期我国的出口增速从26.42%下至4.43%，进口增速从32.99%下跌至1.39%。行业层面来看，电力设备、电子以及基础化工对于中欧贸易的依赖较高。对外出口角度来看，电力设备行业占比最高，占比高达41.24%，其中电机占比18.91%、电源设备占比19.79%、电网设备占比2.55%；对内进口角度而言，电力设备行业占比最高，占比高达46.20%，其中电机占比21.37%、电源设备占比22.25%、电网设备占比2.58%。个股层面来看，海外业务规模或占比排名前100的公司主要集中在电子、家电以及医药领域。海外业务收入规模最大的100家A股上市公司中，有18家电子公司，包括8家消费电子、3家光学光电子和4家半导体公司；有7家家电上市公司，包括3家黑电、4家白电企业。海外业务收入占比最高的100家A股上市公司中，医药生物行业的公司有17家，包括14家医疗器械、2家化学制药以及1家医疗服务；电子行业的公司有14家，包括8家消费电子、2家光学光电子以及2家半导体上市公司。欧债问题带来的经济压力，可能会提升欧盟对我国贸易依赖度，未来应关注中欧协定的重启可能性。就中欧协定内容来看，主要围绕市场开放、公平竞争和投资保护三个方面展开。第一方面是市场开放，强调双方放宽市场准入，在这一方面中国在多个行业给出了前所未有的的准入承诺；第二方面是公平竞争，双方共同承诺尊重知识产权、改善劳工标准、完善标准制定和维护市场秩序；第三方面是投资保护，双方保护相互投资，确保投资环境公平透明、保障监管程序清晰明了。2021年5月，欧洲议会通过了冻结中欧投资协定的议案，中欧协定就此搁置。但随着中国市场对于重振欧洲经济而言重要性增强，中欧关系有望回暖。4.2.人民币替代+基本面分化，中国市场股债汇有望走出独立行情欧债问题发酵将使全球金融资产开启“Risk Off”模式，A股市场短期也无法独善其身。但长期看，人民币的储备货币占比增加抬升汇率和资产价值。22年以来，美元对各国、人民币兑欧日分别升值8.9%、6.3%。这一轮货币升值背后是国际储备货币的竞争轮替；随着人民币在国际货币储备中占比不断提升，未来人民币及相关资产也将持续升值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074636978,"gmtCreate":1658357454094,"gmtModify":1676536144188,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074636978","repostId":"1163029397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075890181,"gmtCreate":1658184629543,"gmtModify":1676536116377,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075890181","repostId":"1148974307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148974307","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658111581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148974307?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's too curly! A broker broke down Tesla and wrote a 94-page report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148974307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>I've never dismantled a car, so I'm embarrassed to say I'm a tram analyst. Sell-side analysts \"have no end to the volume\"...</p><p>After Haitong International dismantled a BYD \"Yuan\" last month and used an 87-page research report to show the detailed details of auto parts, CITIC Securities, the \"brother of brokers\", dismantled a Tesla Model 3 and wrote a A 94-page research report.</p><p>It took two months for the TMT and automotive team of CITIC Securities Research Department to cooperate with a number of companies and institutions to completely dismantle the Model 3 standard battery life version.</p><p>CITIC Securities said:</p><p>It is hoped that through the analysis of Tesla Model 3, a benchmark model of intelligent electric vehicles, Tesla's thinking on intelligent electrification of vehicles as a global leading automobile company will be shown, in order to clarify the possible direction of subsequent industrial development and better support relevant decisions. Through dismantling, CITIC Securities conducted a detailed and in-depth analysis of Tesla's E/E architecture, three electricity, thermal management, body, etc.</p><p>Domain controller architecture</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the E/E architecture has shifted from distributed to domain control structure, and the decoupling of software and hardware is the key to software-defined cars. Tesla's Model 3 is the leader of domain control architecture.</p><p><b>1) Body domain: The front left and right three bodies adopt positional partitions instead of functional partitions, which is intended to reduce wiring difficulty, and a large number of HSDs are used to replace relays;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The location of the front body domain controller is in the front cabin. Theoretically speaking, the probability of collision is higher at this position, so an aluminum alloy protective shell is used, while the left and right body domain controllers encounter external collisions because they are in the passenger cabin. The probability is low, and the protective shells are all made of plastic structure:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Cockpit domain: T-BOX is integrated into the cockpit domain controller, and Intel's A3950 chip is used. The idea is closer to the game platform than the mobile phone;</b></p><p>The cockpit domain is an important part of the user experience, and Tesla's cockpit control platform is also constantly evolving. The Tesla model 3 2020 dismantled by CITIC Securities this time uses the second-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU2):</p><p>MCU2 is composed of two circuit boards, one is the motherboard, and the other is a small wireless communication circuit board fixed on the motherboard (shown in the pink box in the figure). This communication circuit board contains LTE module, Ethernet control chip, antenna interface, etc., which is equivalent to the T-box used for external wireless communication in traditional cars. This time, it is integrated into the MCU, which can save space and cost. The 2020 model 3 we dismantled this time uses Telit's LTE module. After the 2021 model, Tesla will switch the wireless module supplier to Quectel. The motherboard of MCU2 uses a double-sided PCB board, and various network-related chips are mainly laid out on the front, such as Intel and Marvell's Ethernet chips, Telit's LTE modules, TI's video serializers, etc. Another important function of the front is to provide external interfaces, such as Bluetooth/WiFi/LTE antenna interface, camera input and output interface, audio interface, USB interface, Ethernet interface, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The back of the MCU2 is more important. Its core is an IntelAtomA3950 chip, paired with a total of 4GB of Micron memory and a 64GBeMMC memory chip also provided by Micron. In addition, there are WiFi/Bluetooth modules provided by LGInnotek.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>3) Driving domain: Dual FSD chips, NPU has higher cost performance than Orin in the same area, and the Linux operating system is more suitable for large AI models;</b></p><p>Another important feature of Tesla is its intelligent driving, which is performed through its autonomous driving domain controller (AP). The core of this part lies in the FSD chip independently developed by Tesla, and the rest of the configurations are not essentially different from other current autonomous driving controller solutions:</p><p>The HW3.0 version AP used in model 3 is equipped with two FSD chips, each equipped with 4 Samsung 2GB memory particles, and a single FSD totals 8GB. At the same time, each FSD is equipped with a Toshiba 32GB flash memory and a Spansion 64MBNORflash for boot. In terms of network, the AP controller contains Marvell's Ethernet switch and physical layer transceiver, in addition to TI's high-speed CAN transceiver. For autonomous driving, positioning is also very important, so it is equipped with an Ublox GPS positioning module.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In order to realize autonomous driving, Tesla has proposed a complete set of solutions based on vision and with FSD chips as the core:</p><p>Its peripheral sensors mainly include 12 ultrasonic sensors (Valeo), 8 cameras (3 front views on the top of the windshield, 2 front shooting sides of the B-pillar, 2 rear views on the front fender, 1 rear view camera at the rear of the car, and 1 DMS camera), 1 millimeter wave radar (Continental).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Its core front-looking trinocular camera includes the main camera in the middle, telephoto lenses and wide-angle lenses on both sides, forming a combination of different fields of view. The three cameras use the same ON Semiconductor image sensor. The millimeter-wave radar is placed near the vehicle logo at the front of the car and includes a circuit board and an antenna board. The millimeter-wave radar uses a Freescale control chip and a TI regulated power management chip internally.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>4) Electronic control domain: Model 3 is the first to use 48 SiC MOSFETs instead of 84 IGBTs, which greatly reduces the size and power consumption;</b></p><p>According to CITIC Securities, Model 3 is the first pure electric vehicle to use a full SiC power module motor controller, pioneering SiC applications:</p><p>The SiC model used in Model 3 is STMicroelectronics' ST GK026. At the same power level, this SiC module uses laser welding to connect SiC MOSFET, input busbar and output three-phase copper. The package size is also significantly smaller than that of silicon modules, and the switching loss is reduced by 75%. Using SiC modules instead of IGBT modules, the system efficiency can be improved by about 5%, and the number of chips and total area are also reduced. If the IGBT of Model X is still used, 54-60 IGBTs are required.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5) Power domain: BMS manages a total of 2,976 21,700 batteries, and its powerful software capabilities achieve consistent charging and discharging of each battery.</p><p>As an electric vehicle, the management of electric energy and batteries in Model 3 is very important, and the person responsible for managing the battery pack<b>BMS</b>It is a difficult product:</p><p>The main control board is responsible for managing all BMS-related chips. It is equipped with 7 sets of external interfaces, including control signals to the charge controller (CP), energy conversion system (PCS), and signals to the sampling board (BMB). In addition, it also contains special current and voltage acquisition signals. The circuit board contains circuit modules such as high-voltage isolated power supply and sampling circuit. In terms of components, there are microcontrollers from Freescale and TI, as well as operational amplifiers, reference voltage sources, isolators, data sampling chips, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Under the control of BMS, it is the BMB circuit board that specifically monitors the battery pack. For Tesla model 3:</p><p>There are 4 battery packs in total, each set is equipped with a BMB circuit board, and the circuit layouts of the 4 circuit boards are different. They can be easily distinguished from each other by the numbers on the circuit boards, and they are daisy-chained in sequence. Together, the P5 and P6 interfaces connected to the main control board are daisy-chained on boards 1 and 4.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Wiring harnesses and connectors</p><p>1) Wiring harness: CITIC Securities estimates that the value of a single wiring harness is about 2,000 yuan. High-voltage wiring harness is the main increase in new energy vehicles. Model 3 has begun to use aluminum instead of copper in order to lighten weight. Low-voltage data wires will be reduced under the process of domain control;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Connectors: Electrification brings the increase of high-voltage connectors, and intelligence brings the demand for high-speed connectors. TE (Tyco) is the core supplier of Model 3, and domestic manufacturers are expected to make breakthroughs.</p><p>On the connector of the power battery-electric drive high-voltage wiring harness,<b>Model3</b>Adopted by<b>TE</b>Of<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><p>Its structure and function are similar to those of HC Stak 35. The difference lies in the size. As you can see, HC Stak 25 is smaller than HC Stak 35, so the terminals at the socket end of HC Stak 25 are composed of 20 DEFCON terminals (HC Stak 35 is 35 pieces), different models share the same connector terminals. Connector terminals can quickly complete the assembly of different models through changes in the number of stacks, which reflects the cost control advantages brought by modular production of connectors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Battery: Tesla leads in intergenerational technology, 4680 and CTC are the follow-up development directions</p><p>1) The core concept of battery design is to increase specific energy: from small modules to large modules to moduleless CTC, battery cell sizes from 1865 to 2170 to 4680, the core trend is to reduce the number of non-energy structural parts in the battery pack, reduce costs, reduce weight, and increase cruising range.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 battery pack uses 4 large modules. Compared with the battery packs of iD.4 X and BMW iX3 in the same period, it uses large module technology, which has higher integration and a cleaner internal layout. The battery pack technology is still in a leading position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) The value and changes of 4680 battery: 4680 achieves the impossible triangle of \"high energy density, high rate, and low cost\" through the combination of all tab, high nickel and high silicon, dry electrode, and CTC. As the number of batteries in the module increases and the demand for fast charging increases, the requirements for cooling, thermal conductivity and flame retardancy of the battery pack increase. The number of cooling tubes in the battery pack increases, the length of the cold tubes decreases, and potting and fireproof foam are added to ensure the thermal stability of the battery pack.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Three electricity and thermal management: The integration of the three electricity continues to improve, and thermal management is the first to achieve global integration.</p><p>1) Three-in-one improves the integration level, and the dual motors achieve complementary advantages: the drive motor, motor controller, and gearbox on Model 3/Y are integrated into one. Compared with Model S/X, the integration level is improved. At the same time, \"small three electric\" and battery pack integration, compact structure and lower cost; The single-motor version evolves from induction motor to permanent magnet motor, and the dual-motor version evolves from the front induction motor to the rear permanent magnet motor layout. The two motors have complementary advantages in high-speed and low-speed areas.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Thermal management is connected across the entire area, greatly improving energy utilization efficiency: In terms of thermal management, through the application of four-way valves and eight-way valves, the independent circuits of each part are upgraded to the vehicle thermal management that connects air conditioners, battery systems, and power systems., the heat source of the entire vehicle is integrated to improve the energy utilization efficiency of the system. Tesla's three-electric and thermal management systems maintain a leading position in terms of high integration, and their demonstration role will lead the industry to catch up, upgrade and secondary innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Automobile body: Lightweight demand, integrated die-casting of aluminum body has become a trend, consumption upgrades, canopy glass and smart car lights have become a trend</p><p>1) Body: Lightweight to meet energy saving and improve battery life requirements, replacing steel with aluminum is the best choice, and integrated die-casting of the rear body is carried out starting from Model Y;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Car lights: The exterior decoration of Model 3 has a sense of technology and beauty, and the car lights use matrix LED light sources;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3) Automotive glass: Model 3 canopy leads the industry trend, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4) Chassis: Using a controlled-by-wire chassis is the only way for high-level autonomous driving.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities,<b>Model 3</b>The chassis is gradually controlled by wire:</p><p>After dismantling the chassis structure of Model 3, we can see that: In terms of suspension, all Tesla models adopt the configuration of front wheel double wishbone independent suspension and rear wheel multi-link independent suspension, and are not equipped with air suspension; In terms of braking system, Tesla cars use the most cutting-edge technology, namely the brake-by-wire system Ibooster; In terms of steering system, Model 3 still uses traditional electric power steering. Chassis-by-wire is the key to autonomous driving<b>SAEL3</b>The cornerstone of \"execution\". The automatic driving system is divided into four parts: perception, decision-making, control and execution. The chassis system belongs to the \"execution\" mechanism in automatic driving and is the core functional module that ultimately realizes automatic driving. The realization of higher-level autonomous driving at L3 and above is inseparable from the rapid response and precise execution of the chassis actuator to achieve a high degree of coordination with the perception, decision-making and control of the upper layer. The upgrade of the chassis system also means the upgrade of functional modules such as drive system, braking system and steering system. Therefore, the control-by-wire chassis, as the execution cornerstone of higher-level autonomous driving, is the concrete starting point for the development of autonomous driving.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's too curly! A broker broke down Tesla and wrote a 94-page report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's too curly! A broker broke down Tesla and wrote a 94-page report\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>I've never dismantled a car, so I'm embarrassed to say I'm a tram analyst. Sell-side analysts \"have no end to the volume\"...</p><p>After Haitong International dismantled a BYD \"Yuan\" last month and used an 87-page research report to show the detailed details of auto parts, CITIC Securities, the \"brother of brokers\", dismantled a Tesla Model 3 and wrote a A 94-page research report.</p><p>It took two months for the TMT and automotive team of CITIC Securities Research Department to cooperate with a number of companies and institutions to completely dismantle the Model 3 standard battery life version.</p><p>CITIC Securities said:</p><p>It is hoped that through the analysis of Tesla Model 3, a benchmark model of intelligent electric vehicles, Tesla's thinking on intelligent electrification of vehicles as a global leading automobile company will be shown, in order to clarify the possible direction of subsequent industrial development and better support relevant decisions. Through dismantling, CITIC Securities conducted a detailed and in-depth analysis of Tesla's E/E architecture, three electricity, thermal management, body, etc.</p><p>Domain controller architecture</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the E/E architecture has shifted from distributed to domain control structure, and the decoupling of software and hardware is the key to software-defined cars. Tesla's Model 3 is the leader of domain control architecture.</p><p><b>1) Body domain: The front left and right three bodies adopt positional partitions instead of functional partitions, which is intended to reduce wiring difficulty, and a large number of HSDs are used to replace relays;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The location of the front body domain controller is in the front cabin. Theoretically speaking, the probability of collision is higher at this position, so an aluminum alloy protective shell is used, while the left and right body domain controllers encounter external collisions because they are in the passenger cabin. The probability is low, and the protective shells are all made of plastic structure:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Cockpit domain: T-BOX is integrated into the cockpit domain controller, and Intel's A3950 chip is used. The idea is closer to the game platform than the mobile phone;</b></p><p>The cockpit domain is an important part of the user experience, and Tesla's cockpit control platform is also constantly evolving. The Tesla model 3 2020 dismantled by CITIC Securities this time uses the second-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU2):</p><p>MCU2 is composed of two circuit boards, one is the motherboard, and the other is a small wireless communication circuit board fixed on the motherboard (shown in the pink box in the figure). This communication circuit board contains LTE module, Ethernet control chip, antenna interface, etc., which is equivalent to the T-box used for external wireless communication in traditional cars. This time, it is integrated into the MCU, which can save space and cost. The 2020 model 3 we dismantled this time uses Telit's LTE module. After the 2021 model, Tesla will switch the wireless module supplier to Quectel. The motherboard of MCU2 uses a double-sided PCB board, and various network-related chips are mainly laid out on the front, such as Intel and Marvell's Ethernet chips, Telit's LTE modules, TI's video serializers, etc. Another important function of the front is to provide external interfaces, such as Bluetooth/WiFi/LTE antenna interface, camera input and output interface, audio interface, USB interface, Ethernet interface, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The back of the MCU2 is more important. Its core is an IntelAtomA3950 chip, paired with a total of 4GB of Micron memory and a 64GBeMMC memory chip also provided by Micron. In addition, there are WiFi/Bluetooth modules provided by LGInnotek.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>3) Driving domain: Dual FSD chips, NPU has higher cost performance than Orin in the same area, and the Linux operating system is more suitable for large AI models;</b></p><p>Another important feature of Tesla is its intelligent driving, which is performed through its autonomous driving domain controller (AP). The core of this part lies in the FSD chip independently developed by Tesla, and the rest of the configurations are not essentially different from other current autonomous driving controller solutions:</p><p>The HW3.0 version AP used in model 3 is equipped with two FSD chips, each equipped with 4 Samsung 2GB memory particles, and a single FSD totals 8GB. At the same time, each FSD is equipped with a Toshiba 32GB flash memory and a Spansion 64MBNORflash for boot. In terms of network, the AP controller contains Marvell's Ethernet switch and physical layer transceiver, in addition to TI's high-speed CAN transceiver. For autonomous driving, positioning is also very important, so it is equipped with an Ublox GPS positioning module.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In order to realize autonomous driving, Tesla has proposed a complete set of solutions based on vision and with FSD chips as the core:</p><p>Its peripheral sensors mainly include 12 ultrasonic sensors (Valeo), 8 cameras (3 front views on the top of the windshield, 2 front shooting sides of the B-pillar, 2 rear views on the front fender, 1 rear view camera at the rear of the car, and 1 DMS camera), 1 millimeter wave radar (Continental).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Its core front-looking trinocular camera includes the main camera in the middle, telephoto lenses and wide-angle lenses on both sides, forming a combination of different fields of view. The three cameras use the same ON Semiconductor image sensor. The millimeter-wave radar is placed near the vehicle logo at the front of the car and includes a circuit board and an antenna board. The millimeter-wave radar uses a Freescale control chip and a TI regulated power management chip internally.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>4) Electronic control domain: Model 3 is the first to use 48 SiC MOSFETs instead of 84 IGBTs, which greatly reduces the size and power consumption;</b></p><p>According to CITIC Securities, Model 3 is the first pure electric vehicle to use a full SiC power module motor controller, pioneering SiC applications:</p><p>The SiC model used in Model 3 is STMicroelectronics' ST GK026. At the same power level, this SiC module uses laser welding to connect SiC MOSFET, input busbar and output three-phase copper. The package size is also significantly smaller than that of silicon modules, and the switching loss is reduced by 75%. Using SiC modules instead of IGBT modules, the system efficiency can be improved by about 5%, and the number of chips and total area are also reduced. If the IGBT of Model X is still used, 54-60 IGBTs are required.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5) Power domain: BMS manages a total of 2,976 21,700 batteries, and its powerful software capabilities achieve consistent charging and discharging of each battery.</p><p>As an electric vehicle, the management of electric energy and batteries in Model 3 is very important, and the person responsible for managing the battery pack<b>BMS</b>It is a difficult product:</p><p>The main control board is responsible for managing all BMS-related chips. It is equipped with 7 sets of external interfaces, including control signals to the charge controller (CP), energy conversion system (PCS), and signals to the sampling board (BMB). In addition, it also contains special current and voltage acquisition signals. The circuit board contains circuit modules such as high-voltage isolated power supply and sampling circuit. In terms of components, there are microcontrollers from Freescale and TI, as well as operational amplifiers, reference voltage sources, isolators, data sampling chips, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Under the control of BMS, it is the BMB circuit board that specifically monitors the battery pack. For Tesla model 3:</p><p>There are 4 battery packs in total, each set is equipped with a BMB circuit board, and the circuit layouts of the 4 circuit boards are different. They can be easily distinguished from each other by the numbers on the circuit boards, and they are daisy-chained in sequence. Together, the P5 and P6 interfaces connected to the main control board are daisy-chained on boards 1 and 4.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Wiring harnesses and connectors</p><p>1) Wiring harness: CITIC Securities estimates that the value of a single wiring harness is about 2,000 yuan. High-voltage wiring harness is the main increase in new energy vehicles. Model 3 has begun to use aluminum instead of copper in order to lighten weight. Low-voltage data wires will be reduced under the process of domain control;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Connectors: Electrification brings the increase of high-voltage connectors, and intelligence brings the demand for high-speed connectors. TE (Tyco) is the core supplier of Model 3, and domestic manufacturers are expected to make breakthroughs.</p><p>On the connector of the power battery-electric drive high-voltage wiring harness,<b>Model3</b>Adopted by<b>TE</b>Of<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><p>Its structure and function are similar to those of HC Stak 35. The difference lies in the size. As you can see, HC Stak 25 is smaller than HC Stak 35, so the terminals at the socket end of HC Stak 25 are composed of 20 DEFCON terminals (HC Stak 35 is 35 pieces), different models share the same connector terminals. Connector terminals can quickly complete the assembly of different models through changes in the number of stacks, which reflects the cost control advantages brought by modular production of connectors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Battery: Tesla leads in intergenerational technology, 4680 and CTC are the follow-up development directions</p><p>1) The core concept of battery design is to increase specific energy: from small modules to large modules to moduleless CTC, battery cell sizes from 1865 to 2170 to 4680, the core trend is to reduce the number of non-energy structural parts in the battery pack, reduce costs, reduce weight, and increase cruising range.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 battery pack uses 4 large modules. Compared with the battery packs of iD.4 X and BMW iX3 in the same period, it uses large module technology, which has higher integration and a cleaner internal layout. The battery pack technology is still in a leading position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) The value and changes of 4680 battery: 4680 achieves the impossible triangle of \"high energy density, high rate, and low cost\" through the combination of all tab, high nickel and high silicon, dry electrode, and CTC. As the number of batteries in the module increases and the demand for fast charging increases, the requirements for cooling, thermal conductivity and flame retardancy of the battery pack increase. The number of cooling tubes in the battery pack increases, the length of the cold tubes decreases, and potting and fireproof foam are added to ensure the thermal stability of the battery pack.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Three electricity and thermal management: The integration of the three electricity continues to improve, and thermal management is the first to achieve global integration.</p><p>1) Three-in-one improves the integration level, and the dual motors achieve complementary advantages: the drive motor, motor controller, and gearbox on Model 3/Y are integrated into one. Compared with Model S/X, the integration level is improved. At the same time, \"small three electric\" and battery pack integration, compact structure and lower cost; The single-motor version evolves from induction motor to permanent magnet motor, and the dual-motor version evolves from the front induction motor to the rear permanent magnet motor layout. The two motors have complementary advantages in high-speed and low-speed areas.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Thermal management is connected across the entire area, greatly improving energy utilization efficiency: In terms of thermal management, through the application of four-way valves and eight-way valves, the independent circuits of each part are upgraded to the vehicle thermal management that connects air conditioners, battery systems, and power systems., the heat source of the entire vehicle is integrated to improve the energy utilization efficiency of the system. Tesla's three-electric and thermal management systems maintain a leading position in terms of high integration, and their demonstration role will lead the industry to catch up, upgrade and secondary innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Automobile body: Lightweight demand, integrated die-casting of aluminum body has become a trend, consumption upgrades, canopy glass and smart car lights have become a trend</p><p>1) Body: Lightweight to meet energy saving and improve battery life requirements, replacing steel with aluminum is the best choice, and integrated die-casting of the rear body is carried out starting from Model Y;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Car lights: The exterior decoration of Model 3 has a sense of technology and beauty, and the car lights use matrix LED light sources;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3) Automotive glass: Model 3 canopy leads the industry trend, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4) Chassis: Using a controlled-by-wire chassis is the only way for high-level autonomous driving.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities,<b>Model 3</b>The chassis is gradually controlled by wire:</p><p>After dismantling the chassis structure of Model 3, we can see that: In terms of suspension, all Tesla models adopt the configuration of front wheel double wishbone independent suspension and rear wheel multi-link independent suspension, and are not equipped with air suspension; In terms of braking system, Tesla cars use the most cutting-edge technology, namely the brake-by-wire system Ibooster; In terms of steering system, Model 3 still uses traditional electric power steering. Chassis-by-wire is the key to autonomous driving<b>SAEL3</b>The cornerstone of \"execution\". The automatic driving system is divided into four parts: perception, decision-making, control and execution. The chassis system belongs to the \"execution\" mechanism in automatic driving and is the core functional module that ultimately realizes automatic driving. The realization of higher-level autonomous driving at L3 and above is inseparable from the rapid response and precise execution of the chassis actuator to achieve a high degree of coordination with the perception, decision-making and control of the upper layer. The upgrade of the chassis system also means the upgrade of functional modules such as drive system, braking system and steering system. Therefore, the control-by-wire chassis, as the execution cornerstone of higher-level autonomous driving, is the concrete starting point for the development of autonomous driving.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1148974307","content_text":"没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3，并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月，中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称：希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析，展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考，以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向，更好地支持相关决策。通过拆解，中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。域控制器架构据中信证券，E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构，软硬件实现解耦，是软件定义汽车的关键，特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。1）车身域：前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区，意在降低布线难度，大量采用HSD替代继电器；前车身域控制器的位置在前舱，这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高，因此采用铝合金的保护外壳，而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内，遇到外界碰撞的概率较低，保护外壳均采用塑料结构：2）座舱域：将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器，同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片，思路更接近游戏平台而非手机；座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分，特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器（MCU2）：MCU2由两块电路板构成，一块是主板，另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板（图中粉色框所示）。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等，相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box，此次将其集成在MCU中，能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组，在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板，正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片，例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片，Telit的LTE模组，TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口，如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。而MCU2的背面更为重要，其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片，搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。3）驾驶域：双FSD芯片，NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比，采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型；特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶，这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器（AP）来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片，其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别：在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中，配备两颗FSD芯片，每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒，单FSD总计8GB，同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面，AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器，此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说，定位也十分重要，因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。为了实现自动驾驶，特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础，以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案：其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器（Valeo）、8个摄像头（风挡玻璃顶3个前视，B柱2个拍摄侧前方，前翼子板2个后视，车尾1个后视摄像头，以及1个DMS摄像头）、1个毫米波雷达（大陆）。其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头，形成不同视野范围的搭配，三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近，包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。4）电控域：Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT，体积、功耗大幅减小；据中信证券，Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车，开创SiC应用的先河：Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下，这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接，封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块，并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块，其系统效率可以提高5%左右，芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT，则需要54-60颗IGBT。5）动力域：BMS共管理2976节21700电池，强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。Model3作为电动车，电能和电池的管理十分重要，而负责管理电池组的BMS是一个高难度产品:主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片，共设置7组对外接口，包含了对充电控制器（CP）、能量转换系统（PCS）的控制信号，以及到采样板（BMB）的信号，另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面，有Freescale和TI的单片机，以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。在BMS的控制下，具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板，对于特斯拉model3而言:共有4个电池组，每一组配备一个BMB电路板，并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同，彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别，并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起，在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。线束和连接器1）线束：中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元，高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量，Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜，低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少；2）连接器：电动化带来高压连接器增量，智能化带来高速连接器需求，TE（泰科）是Model3的核心供应商，国产厂商有望取得突破。在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上，Model3采用的是TE的HC Stak 25：其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似，不同点在于尺寸的大小，可以看到，HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小，因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成（HC Stak 35为35片），不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装，这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。电池：特斯拉代际技术领先，4680和CTC是后续发展方向1）电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量：由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC，电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680，核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量，降低成本减少重量，提升续航里程。据中信证券，Model3电池包采用4块大模组，与同期的iD.4 X，宝马iX3的电池包相比，采用大模组技术，集成度更高，内部布局更为整洁，电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。2）4680电池的价值及变化：4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合，实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升，对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升，电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少，增加灌封、防火泡棉，保障电池包热稳定性。三电与热管理：三电集成度不断提高，热管理率先实现全域打通。1）三合一提升集成度，双电机实现优势互补：Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一，集成度相比Model S/X提高，同时“小三电”和电池包集成，结构紧凑成本更低；单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变，双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进，两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。2）热管理全域打通，大大提升能量利用效率：热管理上，通过四通阀、八通阀的应用，由各部分独立的回路，向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级，整车热源集成，提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先，其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。汽车车身：轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势，消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流1）车身：轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求，以铝代钢是最佳选择，并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸；2）车灯：Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感，车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源；3）汽车玻璃：Model3天幕引领行业趋势，渗透率有望不断提升；4）底盘：采用线控底盘，是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。据中信证券，Model 3底盘逐步实现线控化：经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解，我们看到：悬架方面，特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置，未配置空气悬架；制动系统方面，特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术，即线控制动系统Ibooster；转向系统方面，Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。线控底盘是实现自动驾驶SAEL3的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分，其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构，是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行，以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以，线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石，是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}