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Jefflau749

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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2023-02-02
  ya
  Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare
  THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday
  Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2023-02-02
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-11-14
  $Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-11-14
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-04
  ya
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-03
  $Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$U
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-10-03
  $Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$ya
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-26
  ya
  Is the "Minsky" moment for European debt approaching? This time is different.
  欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为
  Is the "Minsky" moment for European debt approaching? This time is different.
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-21
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- Jefflau749Jefflau749
  ·2022-07-19
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  It's so curly! The top brokerage firm dismantled Tesla and wrote a 94-page report.
  没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3
  It's so curly! The top brokerage firm dismantled Tesla and wrote a 94-page report.
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08:43","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to Watch: FLCT, Oxley, Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit, Quantum Healthcare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138331498","media":"Business Times","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday","content":"<div>\n<p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare><strong>Business Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V8Y.SI":"康敦医疗","CMOU.SI":"KOREReitUSD","5UX.SI":"豪利","BUOU.SI":"星狮物流工业信托"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/stocks-watch-flct-oxley-keppel-pacific-oak-us-reit-quantum-healthcare","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138331498","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Feb 2):FRASERS Logistics & Commercial Trust recorded over 239,500 square metres (sq m) of leasing across its portfolio for its first quarter ended Dec 31, 2022, the real estate investment trust’s (Reit) manager said in a Wednesday (Feb 1) business update.The Reit maintained a 100 per cent occupancy for its logistics and industrial (L&I) portfolio, while its commercial portfolio recorded an 89.8 per cent occupancy rate. Overall occupancy came in at 95.9 per cent.Mainboard-listed Oxley Holdings reported on Wednesday (Feb 1) a sharp decline in net profit for its first half on the back of lower revenue and higher finance costs.Net profit for the six-month period ended Dec 31, 2022 fell to S$277,000 from S$23.5 million in the corresponding period a year ago.The group said in the bourse filing that the lower profits were due to “lower revenue streams coupled with higher finance costs resulting from rising interest rates and lower mark-to-market fair-value gain on derivative financial instruments”.THE manager of Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit said large-scale layoffs amid a tech sector slowdown are not a major concern for its portfolio – and might even be viewed as “somewhat positive” for the US office-focused real estate investment trust (Reit).“When you look at the layoffs for these companies in Bellevue and Redmond and compare that to what their hiring has been over the last several years, you will find that it has been just a fraction of what their hiring had been,” said David Snyder, chief executive of the Reit manager, at a briefing on Wednesday (Feb 1) following its FY2022 results announcement.Quantum Healthcare, on Feb 2, announced that it has proposed to acquire the businesses of three clinics operating under the Dental Hub Group.The acquisition was scaled down from theinitial acquisition of six clinicsunder the Dental Hub Group.The three clinics under the acquisition are located at Alexandra Road, Bedok North and Choa Chua Kang. The previous agreement included other clinics that were located in Jurong West, Telok Blangah Crescent and West Coast Road. According to Quantum Healthcare, this is due to several factors such as the existing market conditions, the clinics’ financial performance, as well as the location of the clinics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"5UX.SI":0.9,"BUOU.SI":0.9,"V8Y.SI":0.9,"CMOU.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955894837,"gmtCreate":1675317716529,"gmtModify":1676538992495,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955894837","repostId":"1144650848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969692003,"gmtCreate":1668421088003,"gmtModify":1676538054023,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLM\">$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLM\">$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","text":"$Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund(CLM)$ ya","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40d0545f72bc49a80eab4e2b46927636","width":"1080","height":"2266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969692003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969696444,"gmtCreate":1668421068588,"gmtModify":1676538054022,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>ya","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 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Inc.(AITX)$U","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0739bbd9510f43bdc11bde975f59a1aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912950969","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912950005,"gmtCreate":1664751332208,"gmtModify":1676537500397,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>ya","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>ya","text":"$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$ya","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0739bbd9510f43bdc11bde975f59a1aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912950005","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909019162,"gmtCreate":1658791730656,"gmtModify":1676536206553,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909019162","repostId":"1100128143","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128143","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658756746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100128143?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-25 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"Minsky\" moment for European debt approaching? This time is different.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128143","media":"李美岑投资策略","summary":"欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The European Central Bank has joined the global tightening wave, and the specter of European debt looms over Italy.</b>To prevent inflation and the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank raised rate hike by 50 basis points on the evening of July 21, exceeding expectations. The Eurozone bid farewell to an eight-year era of negative interest rates, and there is a possibility of further tightening in September, October, and December. As one of the PIIGS countries with a heavy debt burden, Italy is most at risk: 1) Since 2019, its debt has continued to grow rapidly, currently accounting for nearly 60% of the PIIGS countries; 2) The economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 but did not bring about economic improvement. Since 2019, GDP growth has continued to decline to 0%. 3) Rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have both led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate reached 9.15%. Following the ECB's announcement of rate hike, the yield on Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately surged to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to widen to around 236 basis points, gradually approaching the level seen during the 2010 European debt crisis.</p><p><b>Historically, credit rating downgrades and ECB rate hike have been major drivers of the escalating European debt crisis.</b>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of ECB rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond in both countries jumped by 120-160 basis points, which is the \"mastermind behind the intensification of liquidity runs.\" In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond had jumped by only 20 basis points, far less than during the downgrade. Furthermore, core European countries, represented by Germany, did not provide timely assistance and did not begin to establish an EU crisis management mechanism until mid-2010, which led to the liquidity run caused by European debt spreading from peripheral countries to core countries, represented by France.</p><p><b>Short-term risks are controllable, but in the long run, the effectiveness of the ECB's TPI implementation is of paramount importance. Pay attention to liquidity and credit indicator early warnings.</b>The five PIIGS countries had a total outstanding debt of approximately €350 billion in 2022, compared to the current available funds of approximately €360 billion in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), indicating that short-term risks are temporarily under control. However, during the debt repayment peak in 2023, the five PIIGS countries had approximately 561.3 billion euros due, of which Italy accounted for 63%, representing a huge amount of debt repayment. Although the currently launched TPI targeted bond purchase instrument does not have a purchase limit, the specific implementation details are still relatively vague. If core countries such as Germany and France struggle to survive due to economic problems, the effectiveness of the ECB's bailout may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem will also face uncertainty. Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit defaults and liquidity runs, we will continue to pay attention to liquidity indicators (LIBOR-OIS spread) and credit indicators (credit default swap rate CDS and German-Italian 10-year Treasury Bond spread).</p><p><b>The European debt problem is a \"crisis coexisting\" for my country.</b>On the economic front, the EU is my country's second-largest trading partner. The pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth. Under the impact of the last round of European debt, my country's export growth rate fell from 26.42% to 4.43%, and its import growth rate fell from 32.99% to 1.39%. On the other hand, the economic pressure brought about by the European debt crisis may increase the EU's trade dependence on my country, and attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement in the future. On the financial front, the escalation of the European debt crisis will trigger a \"risk-off\" mode for global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune in the short term. However, in the long run, with the replacement of the RMB and the divergence in fundamentals, the Chinese stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are expected to develop independent trends.</p><p><b>Risk warning: Geopolitical crisis; Overseas rate hike exceeded expectations; The spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. The European Central Bank joins the global tightening wave, raising concerns about a European debt default.</b></p><p><b>1.1 Inflationary pressures repeatedly reach new highs, making the \"era of negative interest rates\" in the Eurozone a thing of the past.</b></p><p><b>The rise in oil prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a record high in inflation in the Eurozone, and the huge trade deficit has also caused the euro to fall to a 20-year low.</b>About 30% of the EU's oil imports come from Russia. Following supply chain strains caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the beginning of the year and the partial oil embargo imposed on Russia by the US and Europe in May, the EU's crude oil imports from Russia have decreased by 20% compared to last year, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen. The current inflation rate in the Eurozone has reached 8.6%, a record high since its inception; The core CPI, excluding factors such as energy and food, was 3.7%, which also demonstrates the significant impact of energy prices on the Eurozone. Driven by rising import costs and weak external demand due to energy prices, the Eurozone has experienced its largest trade deficit since its inception (32.4 billion euros). Even Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, experienced its first trade deficit in 30 years in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae99577318ca9108e9ff778ed2b142f7\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef865d7c8ef48b331a4ab89a4bc5492b\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>To prevent inflation and the euro's performance from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank joined the global \"water withdrawal model,\" marking the end of an eight-year era of negative interest rates in the Eurozone.</b>Since its establishment in 1998, the European Central Bank has adjusted its monetary policy with the inflation rate as the core variable. In July 2021, the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy strategy, changing the monetary policy target from \"below but close to 2%\" to a symmetrical target of 2%. The Eurozone's inflation rate has now far exceeded the 2% target. Based on this, the European Central Bank announced a 50 basis point rate hike on the evening of July 21, ending an eight-year period of negative interest rates in the Eurozone before the third quarter. In addition, boosting the euro exchange rate is also one of the ECB's objectives in considering rate hike. Currently, due to the huge trade deficit, the euro has fallen below 1:1 against the dollar, a new low in 20 years, while the euro jumped 90 points against the dollar after the ECB rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1f314ac60faf81f63dc2224fdda9e6\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2 rate hike pushes up debt costs, and the specter of European debt looms over Italy.</b></p><p><b>Debt levels in European countries have continued to rise since the 2010 European debt crisis, and this rate hike may further trigger the risk of default in peripheral countries by pushing up borrowing costs.</b>Taking the \"PIIG countries\" as an example, their current debt burden has long exceeded the level during the 2010 European debt crisis. Greece's national debt-to-GDP ratio is close to 200%, followed by Italy, Spain, and Portugal, which fluctuate around 120% of GDP. After the ECB initiated its first rate hike in July, there is a possibility that it will continue to tighten monetary policy in September, October and December. In the future, debt repayment interest rates in Eurozone countries will jump non-linearly, and the rate hike plan will expose heavily indebted countries to the potential risk of debt crises due to rising borrowing costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec821604531a0bf44d93798410bbbda\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ab61b0445fde666357d205d28e915a\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Italy may be the most dangerous \"flammable commodity\" in this European debt crisis.</b>Since 2019, Italy's debt has continued to grow rapidly, with outstanding debt exceeding 2 trillion euros over the next 10 years, accounting for nearly 60% of the five IPIC countries. Meanwhile, the economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 but did not bring about economic improvement. In 2019, GDP growth continued to decline to 0%. Subsequently, the impact of the pandemic on the service sector also severely damaged the Italian economy. In addition, rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have both led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate reached 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced its rate hike, the market generally worried that Italy would become the first \"bomb\" in this European debt default. The yield on Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to widen to around 236 basis points, gradually approaching the level during the 2010 European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352a1e10163f43bc57f2ee2696fef298\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65ad6e7d00387f27f0f68e16301b7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The essence of the European debt crisis is a liquidity run in the entire Eurozone.</b></p><p><b>The European debt crisis is a derivative of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</b>Southern Europe, with its weak endogenous growth, has long maintained a \"false prosperity\" in its economy through real estate and tourism under an economic structure with a hollowed-out manufacturing sector. The subprime mortgage crisis led to a sharp decline in real estate and tourism, cutting off Southern Europe's sources of income. Banks in countries such as Ireland and Spain have had to seek government assistance due to large amounts of bad real estate debt. Taking Ireland as an example, the local government injected at least 70 billion euros into the financial system, more than half of the GDP at the time. This led to the government being unable to borrow under the subsequent impact of European debt and having to seek help from the IMF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787d43a12dcb17ac7b010e11444e8d07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. Against the backdrop of cross-holdings of Treasury Bond within the Eurozone, the rating downgrade became the trigger for the \"fiery conflict\".</b></p><p><b>The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis pushed Greece to a \"dead end,\" and the downgrade of Greece's rating was the first \"domino\" that triggered the European debt crisis.</b>After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, Greece, which was highly dependent on foreign investment, could no longer enjoy the economic dividends brought by exports and real estate. At the same time, since the ECB controls the monetary and exchange rate, Greece cannot stimulate the economy through independent monetary easing or currency devaluation, and can only choose to engage in massive Treasury Bond and expand fiscal spending. In early October 2009, the newly appointed Greek Finance Minister announced that the previous government's debt had been falsified. In fact, at that time, the fiscal deficit and public debt accounted for as much as 12.7% and 113% of GDP, respectively, far exceeding the 3% and 60% stipulated by the EU. In December, the three major rating agencies downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating and gave it a negative outlook, directly leading to a surge in Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond, a significant widening of the interest rate spread with Germany, and panic in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a918d6455be7c166b2c650eede522954\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be57e1656f3a830e584216fc4737818a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The successive defaults of Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy have gradually shifted the debt crisis from peripheral countries of the Eurozone to core countries.</b>The defaults of the \"PIGS\" countries differed. Portugal followed Greece's lead and increased its real fiscal deficit to 8%. The market was worried that it would not be able to safely weather the upcoming debt repayment peak. Portugal's 10-year Treasury Bond once approached 14.2% from 3.5%. For Ireland, the real estate bubble was the \"originator\". The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis impacted the real estate markets in Europe and the United States. In order to save the five major banks that were about to go bankrupt, the Irish government set a fiscal deficit ratio as high as 32% in 2010, public debt as a percentage of GDP as high as 100%, and its debt pressure surpassed that of Greece. The country's 10-year Treasury Bond soared to 9%. In October 2011, France, the core country of the Eurozone, was...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>The latter pointed out that France has the weakest debt performance among AAA-rated countries and its sovereign debt situation continues to deteriorate. Subsequently, Italy's public debt ratio climbed to 120%, second only to Greece, and rating agencies successively downgraded its sovereign rating. With Italy, France, and Spain accounting for as much as 55% of the Eurozone's Treasury Bond market, far exceeding that of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal (combined at only 7%), the European debt problem had evolved from a localized shock into a crisis for the entire Eurozone by the end of 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9032ac6c07f356abceccf84c92b758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At the same time, the European debt crisis has escalated from sovereign states to the level of commercial banks throughout the Eurozone.</b>Eurozone commercial banks hold a large amount of Greek Treasury Bond, with French, German, British, and Portuguese commercial banks alone accounting for more than one-third of Greek holdings. As Treasury Bond yields soared following a series of sovereign credit rating downgrades, commercial banks across Europe began to experience large-scale bad debt provisions, and the pressure to replenish capital suddenly increased. Taking Belgium's Dexia Bank as an example, the liquidity shock caused by European debt prevented it from addressing its risk exposure of over 20 billion euros, forcing it to become the first bank to collapse. Other large European banks, such as Societe Generale,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Their ratings were also downgraded due to their large holdings of Greek government bonds.</p><p><b>2.2. The belated bailout measures also caused the impact of European debt to spiral out of control.</b></p><p><b>The failure of core European countries, represented by Germany, to provide timely assistance led to a further escalation of the European debt crisis.</b>In fact, only Greece had a debt problem in the early stages of the European debt crisis, but Germany adopted a passive bystander attitude at the time, believing that Greece should first reform its high-welfare and high-deficit social structure and did not intend to continue to act as an \"ATM\". In early 2010, Merkel's government also threatened to kick members who did not comply with fiscal discipline out of the eurozone. This hardline stance exacerbated market panic, dragging Ireland, Portugal, and Italy, which also faced high debt problems, into the mix. Germany's hardline stance has also increased the cost of bailing out the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e83452454edb9f244374becaeaaf6f\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd8858e0e6e97ce19a74299f23ab516\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In mid-2010, Germany recognized the seriousness of the European debt crisis and began to establish an EU crisis management mechanism. However, missing the best opportunity still caused the entire Eurozone to pay higher costs.</b>In May 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel relented and agreed to take on the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the euro, ultimately deciding to provide Greece with a three-year loan and credit guarantee of 110 billion euros. However, more than six months had passed since the Greek crisis, and the chain reaction of European debt had spiraled out of control. Subsequently, the European Central Bank had to inject more than €1 trillion in liquidity into the market through two rounds of three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs). The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which involves weekly time deposit instruments to hedge liquidity injections. As of September 28, 2012, the ECB had purchased €208.83 billion in government bonds under the SMP programme. This intervention effectively lowered the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond by 8 basis points. The European Central Bank eliminates the tail risk of the euro by purchasing sovereign bonds (OMTs) on the secondary market. OMTs purchase sovereign bonds with maturities of 1 to 3 years, with no size cap or yield target, based on bailout programs such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f726a41026ac863575ccad237c0ec5\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The core contradiction in the European debt problem lies in the monetary unification of the Eurozone, but the lack of fiscal unification.</b></p><p><b>High welfare spending has forced European countries to rely heavily on bond issuance, but for peripheral countries with weak endogenous economic growth, it is tantamount to \"drinking poison to quench thirst\".</b>Europe is known worldwide for its high welfare. For example, in Italy and Greece, social welfare spending accounted for as much as 21% of GDP in 2009, while in the United States and Canada it was only 14.66% and 9.87% respectively during the same period. At the same time, the industrial structure of the peripheral countries of the Eurozone is unbalanced, with most of them relying on real estate and services as their pillar industries. The manufacturing sector is hollowed out, and they have to use debt to boost investment and stimulate consumption in order to maintain a seemingly \"peaceful\" but actually fragile economy. Therefore, the surge in debt repayment pressure brought about by European debt inevitably appeared first in peripheral countries with high welfare and high fiscal deficits. As early as 2007, Greece's fiscal expenditure had reached 6.7% of GDP, while Portugal and Spain were also around 5% of GDP, both exceeding the Eurozone warning line.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cda0d0996de5805a3e1b454690d34da\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71feaf044db90b2a18341d785a7f8306\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Joining the Eurozone gives peripheral countries such as Greece a certain amount of backing, enabling them to \"free-ride\" and expand their fiscal deficits at low cost.</b>Peripheral countries, due to their underdeveloped economies, had significantly higher borrowing costs before joining the Eurozone than core countries like Germany and France. However, after joining the euro, the market believed that the credit levels of countries across the Eurozone were consistent. Before the outbreak of European debt in 2010, the yields of both economically disadvantaged southern countries and economically developed northern countries in the 10-year Treasury Bond were around 5%, demonstrating the market's \"unfounded\" confidence in the Eurozone. As a result, economically weaker peripheral countries could leverage the Eurozone shell to obtain high credit ratings and borrow heavily at a lower cost. For a long time, core countries, led by Germany, have been capital exporters, while peripheral countries such as the \"European Pig Five\" have been capital inflows, resulting in long-term trade deficits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4957e68990c695b9351d3712298946\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250b57c451c5b1cb12b98dd3770c657\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Unable to regulate the economy through monetary policy, the peripheral countries of the Eurozone can only rely on fiscal stimulus, which ultimately leads to a snowball of debt out of control.</b>The monetary policies of EU member states are uniformly formulated by the European Central Bank, which has focused on maintaining the stability of the euro since its inception and has no obligation to manage financial markets. In other words, when the market needs expansionary monetary policy to regulate the economy, the ECB will not take action to stabilize the financial environment by prioritizing the depreciation of the euro. However, as the impact of European debt expanded, the ECB had to act as a \"lender of last resort\" at the end of 2011, providing liquidity supplements through open market operations. Taking Germany as an example, the Bundesbank provided nearly 500 billion euros in loans through the ECB's TARGET-2 system in order to reduce the repayment pressure on banks in heavily indebted eurozone countries.</p><p><b>2.4. International capital played a \"fueling\" role in European debt.</b></p><p><b>Wall Street had its eye on Greece, which was \"living on debt,\" as early as the early 2000s.</b>In 1999, Greece was excluded from the European Economic and Monetary Union because it did not meet the conditions: the Maastricht Treaty stipulated that Eurozone member states must meet two conditions: First, countries must keep their annual deficits below 3% of GDP; Second, each country's Treasury Bond must account for less than 60% of its total GDP. Greece uses the euro to the dollar exchange rate of 1 to 1 and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The currency swap (at the time, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was roughly 1:0.9) was a \"devil's agreement\" that allowed the Greek government to cover up a public debt of up to 1 billion euros, resulting in a Greek deficit of only 1.5% of GDP on paper (actually 4.1%). Greece met the criteria for becoming a member of the eurozone on paper and joined the eurozone in 2001. However, fiscal fraud can only cover up the problem; the debt itself will not disappear. Instead, Greece has had to create more currency swaps to cover up its debt and deficit, which has increased its debt burden and made it trapped in a debt spiral from which it cannot extricate itself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e21029ba71d609ae2dee610a906ec0\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to earning high commissions, international investment banks have also tied the core countries of the Eurozone to the \"pirate ship\" through financial derivatives.</b>After completing its transaction with Greece, Goldman Sachs purchased €1 billion in 20-year credit default swaps (CDSs) from German banks to hedge against Greek Treasury Bond risk, so that the underwriters could cover the losses in the event of payment problems with Greek debt. Given that Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, this move is tantamount to tying Germany to Greece's \"debt giant ship\". If the Greek government faces a payment crisis and the debt chain breaks, Germany will have to pay for 1 billion euros in debt.</p><p><b>3. Is the \"Minsky moment\" for European debt approaching? The European Central Bank has intervened, and short-term risks are controllable</b></p><p><b>3.1. Credit rating downgrades and ECB rate hike were key drivers of the escalating European debt crisis in 2010.</b></p><p>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of ECB rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond in both countries jumped by 120-160 basis points, which is the \"mastermind behind the intensification of liquidity runs.\" In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond had jumped by only 20 basis points, far less than during the downgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab7de507966e0625a200fca71fe848c\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Furthermore, the European Central Bank misjudged the situation and tightened monetary policy prematurely, further fueling the European debt crisis.</b>In April 2011, the European Central Bank decided to end its emergency bailout of peripheral countries, raising the deposit facilitation rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, and rate hike it again to 75 basis points in July, which further worsened the European debt crisis. Greece's Treasury Bond yield soared to around 30%, an increase of about 50%. In November 2011, the European Central Bank resumed its interest rate cut bailout measures, and with the help of non-traditional bailout tools, the Eurozone economy gradually improved.</p><p><b>3.2. Comparison of the European Debt Crisis with the Current Ten Points: Short-term risks are controllable; attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan.</b></p><p>There has been no large-scale downgrade of sovereign credit ratings in 2010, the Eurozone's ability to control risks has been enhanced, and in the short term, European debt risk remains within a controllable range. In particular, the European Central Bank, having significantly learned from the \"lessons\" of not taking timely action during the previous round of European debt shocks, has already provided a \"preventative shot\" to the market and prepared a rescue plan, which has alleviated investors' current concerns to some extent. However, given that Europe is currently facing significantly higher pressures in areas such as inflation, economy, and geopolitical issues than in 2010, the outlook for European debt remains unclear. We believe that the implementation effect of the ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan, the TPI, remains a key focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864b9d8c4a504c7047be2670827d0e15\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2.1. Improvements compared to the European debt crisis: Risk tolerance and response speed have both increased.</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current situation with the European debt crisis in 2010, we have found five improvements:</b></p><p><b>1) Debt repayment costs have decreased.</b>Despite the current high level of government debt, the average interest rate on outstanding debt has decreased. During the 2011 European debt crisis, the average interest rate on Greece's outstanding debt was as high as 4.69%, while currently, the average outstanding interest rate in all Eurozone countries is below 3.50%, fluctuating around 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff2238505a03ecb2fe1baf7a811cdee0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a04e0995a13b1e48000ba117ca7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) The bad debt ratio decreased and the capital adequacy ratio increased.</b>In terms of risk resistance, the bad debt ratios of Eurozone countries in this round of risks are all below 10%, while their capital adequacy ratios are above 10%. During the European debt period, Greece's capital adequacy ratio was below 0%, and its bad debt ratio was above 47%. Compared with the 2010 European debt crisis, European economies have a better ability to resist risks in this round of crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ed6b576e5aaca9245552291f612b88\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The European Central Bank has more experience in dealing with the 2011 European debt crisis.</b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde served as IMF Managing Director during the European debt crisis and was a \"troublemaker\" in resolving the crisis. Following the announcement of the July rate hike, in response to significant market concerns following the European Central Bank's monetary tightening plan, the ECB held an emergency meeting a week later to discuss corresponding measures and proposed launching a new bond purchase program in July. A month later, on July 21, the European Central Bank announced a 50 basis point rate hike, and at the same time launched a new bond purchase \"Transmission Protection Instrument\" (TPI) to prevent the problem of \"fragmentation\" from worsening.</p><p><b>The current debt repayment pressure is controllable, but if core countries such as Germany and France are unable to survive due to economic problems during the 2023 debt repayment peak, the ECB's bailout effect may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem will also face uncertainty.</b>The five PIIGS countries had a total outstanding debt of approximately €350 billion in 2022, compared to the current available funds of approximately €360 billion in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), indicating that short-term risks are temporarily under control. However, heavily indebted countries will see a peak in debt repayment in 2023, with approximately 561.3 billion euros due in the five PIIGs, of which Italy accounts for 63%. The amount of debt repayment is huge, and the risks should not be underestimated. Judging from the ECB's current statements, the details of the newly launched TPI are still rather vague, such as requiring applicant countries to meet four basic requirements, including 1) compliance with the EU fiscal framework; 2) There are no serious macroeconomic imbalances; 3) Fiscal and public debt sustainability; 4) Macroeconomic policies are sound and sustainable.</p><p>From another perspective, if the current TPI targeted bond purchase method is similar to the bond purchase policy of the Treasury Bond Market Direct Purchase (OMT) program in the secondary market during the European debt period, it may need to comply with the principles of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM): the loan guarantee amount is 165% of the capital contribution amount, with Germany and France, the countries that contribute the most, bearing approximately 27% and 21% respectively. Considering that the EU provided €60 billion in bailout funds during the European debt crisis, and the IMF provided €240 billion in bailout funds, assuming that the EU and the IMF provide equal bailout funds, the remaining debt is spread over three years, requiring €150 million to be repaid annually. Germany and France would need to contribute €668.2 billion and €519.8 billion respectively annually over three years to repay the debt. These funds would account for approximately 18.7% and 16.2% of Germany's and France's GDP respectively, placing a heavy burden on core countries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f37bb4992a0c0655c979378becf817\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4) Market sentiment has improved somewhat after the ECB's action.</b>Despite panic in market sentiment following the European Central Bank's announcement of July rate hike, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 6% to 22,547.48. In the week that followed, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting, and the stock market rebounded, with Italy's FTSE MIB index rising 2%. On July 21, the European Central Bank raised rate hike by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations, and launched a new TPI bond purchase program. The market reaction was less strong than expected, with Italy's FTSE MIB index closing slightly higher by 0.65% on the second day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4477efa53d7022dd5b39eb52c670e582\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) In this round of risk, the proportion of foreign holdings of Treasury Bond in Eurozone countries has decreased slightly.</b>Therefore, the risk of foreign capital \"fleeing\" during a crisis, leading to a chain reaction of soaring Treasury Bond rates, is slightly reduced. Taking Spain and Portugal as examples, as of the end of last year, 74% and 82% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic commercial banks and non-bank institutions, respectively, while in 2011 only about 64% and 67% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic capital, respectively. The Italian, Greek, and Irish holdings in Treasury Bond during the current and European debt crisis are basically the same as they were during the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19d650708bc4e5d23e75e4068f23949\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36208dc67aed06319c7fcc15cd42435\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2.2. Compared to the current worsening of the European debt crisis: rising debt levels and economic pressure may lead to a decrease in bailout capacity.</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current situation with the European debt crisis in 2010, we have found five points of deterioration:</b></p><p><b>1) The economic pressure facing the Eurozone has increased significantly compared to the previous round. Germany, the \"economic locomotive\" of the Eurozone, has experienced its first trade deficit of 1 billion euros in 30 years, reducing its ability to provide crisis relief.</b>During the European debt crisis, the most significant external shock was the 2008 global economic crisis, which resulted in zero global GDP growth for the first time. Compared to this round of risks, the average GDP growth rate in the past two years has been 3%, which is weaker than the economic level before the European debt crisis. The Eurozone is facing its most severe geopolitical crisis since World War II, with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) at an all-time high, above 300. In addition, Europe, which has long relied on Russian imports, has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing its natural gas, oil, electricity and consumer goods prices to surge to $34.35 per million British thermal units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65c581f52939de86298cb6811327bd8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c730055545b283140c09b818d316c89c\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8357be18d5dce44af50c9c351e1de7\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ce2e58fbfb8e2b9cfd2024a149fbcc\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Eurozone countries are currently facing unprecedentedly high inflationary pressures.</b>Eurozone inflation is gradually approaching and rising, now far exceeding the level before European debt, with the harmonized CPI (HICP) reaching a year-on-year high of 8.6%, the highest level in history. Furthermore, the dual structure of separating fiscal and monetary policies among Eurozone countries has not changed, and the fact that \"fragmentation\" and unbalanced development among Eurozone countries have not improved also poses resistance to inflation regulation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a7cb88bc64070c0b1c07beead5e0e2\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2092286c9ee47d57e20c21d52bf088\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The Eurozone's debt level remains high.</b>The debt-to-GDP ratio of the peripheral countries of the Eurozone is close to and exceeds the level of 2009, and the outstanding government debt balance has gradually increased from 600 billion euros during the European debt period to 1 trillion euros now.</p><p><b>4) The euro fell to a record low, and capital outflows continued.</b>In this round of debt risk, the euro has weakened compared to the European debt period. The euro has historically reached a high of 1.6 against the US dollar and a low of 1.2 during the European debt period. Now that the euro has weakened, the euro has fallen below 1:1 against the US dollar, reaching a historical low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5179b7a9e5ea3281459cc2ce33ca324c\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d46dde1623095785c85d21ee8e864a8\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) The proportion of peripheral country bonds held by European commercial banks increased by 5%.</b>During the European debt crisis, Eurozone commercial banks held a large number of heavily indebted countries in Treasury Bond. As a result of the soaring Treasury Bond yields caused by the downgrade of sovereign credit ratings, European commercial banks gradually collapsed, and capital pressure suddenly increased. In this round of risks, commercial banks have increased their holdings of sovereign bonds of Eurozone countries, posing greater capital risks to banks. Taking Portugal as an example, the proportion of Portuguese sovereign debt held by major European commercial banks to the country's sovereign debt has increased by about 5% compared to the European debt era.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a22935ad810cdb8c0a9b8cd2f310a0\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3. The effectiveness of the ECB's TPI implementation is of paramount importance; pay attention to liquidity and credit indicator early warnings.</b></p><p>To avoid shocks to the Eurozone bond market during central bank rate hike, the European Central Bank, while announcing a 50 basis point rate hike, launched the \"Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)\" to target and unlimited new bond purchase programs. This aims to control the borrowing costs of heavily indebted Eurozone governments such as Italy, transmit monetary policy to all Eurozone countries, and avoid exacerbating the problem of \"fragmentation.\" However, it is worth noting that, unlike in 2011, Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, is also suffering from an economic recession, which may greatly reduce its enthusiasm for the ECB's bailout plan. Whether the bailout capacity, which accounted for about 21% of the ESM bailout plan during the European debt crisis, can be continued is also worth paying attention to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bf00b93ba00cdcc63429155976e045\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit defaults and liquidity runs, liquidity and credit indicators have a certain warning effect:</b></p><p>1) Liquidity indicators, such as the Euro LIBOR-OIS spread approaching 0.5%, should be taken seriously, as there may be chain debt risk exposure caused by insufficient interbank liquidity.</p><p>2) Credit indicators, such as when the credit default swap rate (CDS) is above 150, indicate that the market is concerned about sovereign credit risk.</p><p>3) The interest rate spread between the core and peripheral countries of the Eurozone has widened to more than 300 basis points. Italy may be the \"first domino\" in this round of European debt problems. The spread between Italian, German, and Italian 10-year Treasury Bond yields is gradually widening to over 200 basis points. If the spread gradually approaches the 300 basis points of the 2010 European debt crisis, we should be vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768567bc6fe0f18d58e5569515433dc8\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed5c286d9ae323db5bab55def20c9a1\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The European debt problem presents a \"crisis coexisting\" for my country.</b></p><p><b>4.1. European turmoil affects Sino-European trade in the short term, but the Chinese market is becoming increasingly important for revitalizing the European economy.</b></p><p><b>The EU is my country's second-largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth.</b>In 2021, my country's exports to the EU reached US$518.661 billion, accounting for 15.42% of the total. Imports amounted to US$309.931 billion, accounting for 11.54%. The potential debt problems in the Eurozone may subsequently impact China's imports and exports. Historically, when the Eurozone is under significant economic pressure, such as during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the 2010 European debt crisis, and the impact of the 2020 pandemic, my country's imports and exports with the EU have all turned from positive to negative year-on-year, which has also greatly dragged down my country's import and export trade. Under the impact of the last round of European debt, from Q1 2011 to Q3 2012, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI declined from 57.93 to 45.07. During the same period, my country's export growth rate fell from 26.42% to 4.43%, and its import growth rate fell from 32.99% to 1.39%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b59ac53cd28cc68ff5dea567184430e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c61d802f396d39129ace35cf2af81e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective, power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals are highly dependent on Sino-European trade.</b>In terms of exports, the power equipment industry accounts for the largest share, reaching 41.24%, with motors accounting for 18.91%, power equipment accounting for 19.79%, and power grid equipment accounting for 2.55%. From the perspective of domestic imports, the power equipment industry accounts for the largest share, reaching 46.20%, of which motors account for 21.37%, power equipment accounts for 22.25%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.58%.</p><p><b>At the individual stock level, the top 100 companies in terms of overseas business scale or proportion are mainly concentrated in the electronics, home appliance and pharmaceutical sectors.</b>Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the largest overseas business revenue, 18 have electronics subsidiaries, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 3 optoelectronics companies, and 4 semiconductor companies. There are 7 listed home appliance companies, including 3 black appliance companies and 4 white goods companies. Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the highest proportion of overseas business revenue, 17 are in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, including 14 medical device companies, 2 chemical pharmaceutical companies, and 1 medical service company. There are 14 companies in the electronics industry, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 2 optoelectronics companies, and 2 listed semiconductor companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a02a7a7c245df32957dee0f005e2e48\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The economic pressure brought about by the European debt crisis may increase the EU's trade dependence on my country, and attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement in the future.</b>In terms of the content of the China-EU agreement, it mainly revolves around three aspects: market opening, fair competition, and investment protection. The first aspect is market opening, emphasizing that both sides will relax market access. In this regard, China has made unprecedented access commitments in many industries. The second aspect is fair competition, with both parties jointly committing to respecting intellectual property rights, improving labor standards, perfecting standard setting, and maintaining market order. The third aspect is investment protection. Both parties protect each other's investments, ensure a fair and transparent investment environment, and guarantee clear and transparent regulatory procedures. In May 2021, the European Parliament passed a resolution to freeze the China-EU investment agreement, thus shelving the agreement. However, as the Chinese market becomes increasingly important to revitalizing the European economy, Sino-European relations are expected to warm up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b944fbbc17b4fb6aa6d5e8e4ade8453\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2. With RMB substitution and diverging fundamentals, the Chinese stock, bond, and currency markets are expected to experience independent trends.</b></p><p><b>The escalating European debt crisis will trigger a \"risk-off\" mode for global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune in the short term. However, in the long run, the increase in the proportion of RMB as a reserve currency will boost the exchange rate and asset value.</b>Since 2022, the US dollar has appreciated by 8.9% against other countries and the RMB by 6.3% against the European Union and Japan, respectively. Behind this round of currency appreciation is the competitive rotation of international reserve currencies; As the proportion of the RMB in international monetary reserves continues to increase, the RMB and related assets will continue to appreciate in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad3d766fb509c5abb4d068ed0a422ed\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71a4770a0219ba65c4bb0323636807af\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1650252355349","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"Minsky\" moment for European debt approaching? This time is different.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the \"Minsky\" moment for European debt approaching? This time is different.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">李美岑投资策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-25 21:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The European Central Bank has joined the global tightening wave, and the specter of European debt looms over Italy.</b>To prevent inflation and the euro from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank raised rate hike by 50 basis points on the evening of July 21, exceeding expectations. The Eurozone bid farewell to an eight-year era of negative interest rates, and there is a possibility of further tightening in September, October, and December. As one of the PIIGS countries with a heavy debt burden, Italy is most at risk: 1) Since 2019, its debt has continued to grow rapidly, currently accounting for nearly 60% of the PIIGS countries; 2) The economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 but did not bring about economic improvement. Since 2019, GDP growth has continued to decline to 0%. 3) Rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have both led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate reached 9.15%. Following the ECB's announcement of rate hike, the yield on Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately surged to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to widen to around 236 basis points, gradually approaching the level seen during the 2010 European debt crisis.</p><p><b>Historically, credit rating downgrades and ECB rate hike have been major drivers of the escalating European debt crisis.</b>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of ECB rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond in both countries jumped by 120-160 basis points, which is the \"mastermind behind the intensification of liquidity runs.\" In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond had jumped by only 20 basis points, far less than during the downgrade. Furthermore, core European countries, represented by Germany, did not provide timely assistance and did not begin to establish an EU crisis management mechanism until mid-2010, which led to the liquidity run caused by European debt spreading from peripheral countries to core countries, represented by France.</p><p><b>Short-term risks are controllable, but in the long run, the effectiveness of the ECB's TPI implementation is of paramount importance. Pay attention to liquidity and credit indicator early warnings.</b>The five PIIGS countries had a total outstanding debt of approximately €350 billion in 2022, compared to the current available funds of approximately €360 billion in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), indicating that short-term risks are temporarily under control. However, during the debt repayment peak in 2023, the five PIIGS countries had approximately 561.3 billion euros due, of which Italy accounted for 63%, representing a huge amount of debt repayment. Although the currently launched TPI targeted bond purchase instrument does not have a purchase limit, the specific implementation details are still relatively vague. If core countries such as Germany and France struggle to survive due to economic problems, the effectiveness of the ECB's bailout may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem will also face uncertainty. Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit defaults and liquidity runs, we will continue to pay attention to liquidity indicators (LIBOR-OIS spread) and credit indicators (credit default swap rate CDS and German-Italian 10-year Treasury Bond spread).</p><p><b>The European debt problem is a \"crisis coexisting\" for my country.</b>On the economic front, the EU is my country's second-largest trading partner. The pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth. Under the impact of the last round of European debt, my country's export growth rate fell from 26.42% to 4.43%, and its import growth rate fell from 32.99% to 1.39%. On the other hand, the economic pressure brought about by the European debt crisis may increase the EU's trade dependence on my country, and attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement in the future. On the financial front, the escalation of the European debt crisis will trigger a \"risk-off\" mode for global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune in the short term. However, in the long run, with the replacement of the RMB and the divergence in fundamentals, the Chinese stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are expected to develop independent trends.</p><p><b>Risk warning: Geopolitical crisis; Overseas rate hike exceeded expectations; The spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. The European Central Bank joins the global tightening wave, raising concerns about a European debt default.</b></p><p><b>1.1 Inflationary pressures repeatedly reach new highs, making the \"era of negative interest rates\" in the Eurozone a thing of the past.</b></p><p><b>The rise in oil prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a record high in inflation in the Eurozone, and the huge trade deficit has also caused the euro to fall to a 20-year low.</b>About 30% of the EU's oil imports come from Russia. Following supply chain strains caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the beginning of the year and the partial oil embargo imposed on Russia by the US and Europe in May, the EU's crude oil imports from Russia have decreased by 20% compared to last year, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen. The current inflation rate in the Eurozone has reached 8.6%, a record high since its inception; The core CPI, excluding factors such as energy and food, was 3.7%, which also demonstrates the significant impact of energy prices on the Eurozone. Driven by rising import costs and weak external demand due to energy prices, the Eurozone has experienced its largest trade deficit since its inception (32.4 billion euros). Even Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, experienced its first trade deficit in 30 years in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae99577318ca9108e9ff778ed2b142f7\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef865d7c8ef48b331a4ab89a4bc5492b\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>To prevent inflation and the euro's performance from deteriorating further, the European Central Bank joined the global \"water withdrawal model,\" marking the end of an eight-year era of negative interest rates in the Eurozone.</b>Since its establishment in 1998, the European Central Bank has adjusted its monetary policy with the inflation rate as the core variable. In July 2021, the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy strategy, changing the monetary policy target from \"below but close to 2%\" to a symmetrical target of 2%. The Eurozone's inflation rate has now far exceeded the 2% target. Based on this, the European Central Bank announced a 50 basis point rate hike on the evening of July 21, ending an eight-year period of negative interest rates in the Eurozone before the third quarter. In addition, boosting the euro exchange rate is also one of the ECB's objectives in considering rate hike. Currently, due to the huge trade deficit, the euro has fallen below 1:1 against the dollar, a new low in 20 years, while the euro jumped 90 points against the dollar after the ECB rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1f314ac60faf81f63dc2224fdda9e6\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2 rate hike pushes up debt costs, and the specter of European debt looms over Italy.</b></p><p><b>Debt levels in European countries have continued to rise since the 2010 European debt crisis, and this rate hike may further trigger the risk of default in peripheral countries by pushing up borrowing costs.</b>Taking the \"PIIG countries\" as an example, their current debt burden has long exceeded the level during the 2010 European debt crisis. Greece's national debt-to-GDP ratio is close to 200%, followed by Italy, Spain, and Portugal, which fluctuate around 120% of GDP. After the ECB initiated its first rate hike in July, there is a possibility that it will continue to tighten monetary policy in September, October and December. In the future, debt repayment interest rates in Eurozone countries will jump non-linearly, and the rate hike plan will expose heavily indebted countries to the potential risk of debt crises due to rising borrowing costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec821604531a0bf44d93798410bbbda\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ab61b0445fde666357d205d28e915a\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Italy may be the most dangerous \"flammable commodity\" in this European debt crisis.</b>Since 2019, Italy's debt has continued to grow rapidly, with outstanding debt exceeding 2 trillion euros over the next 10 years, accounting for nearly 60% of the five IPIC countries. Meanwhile, the economic situation is also deteriorating. The new government took office in 2018 but did not bring about economic improvement. In 2019, GDP growth continued to decline to 0%. Subsequently, the impact of the pandemic on the service sector also severely damaged the Italian economy. In addition, rampant populism and increasing inflationary pressures have both led to a decline in economic stability. At the end of 2020, Italy's unemployment rate reached 9.15%. After the European Central Bank announced its rate hike, the market generally worried that Italy would become the first \"bomb\" in this European debt default. The yield on Italy's 10-year Treasury Bond immediately soared to 4.14%, and the interest rate spread between Germany and Italy continued to widen to around 236 basis points, gradually approaching the level during the 2010 European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352a1e10163f43bc57f2ee2696fef298\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e65ad6e7d00387f27f0f68e16301b7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The essence of the European debt crisis is a liquidity run in the entire Eurozone.</b></p><p><b>The European debt crisis is a derivative of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</b>Southern Europe, with its weak endogenous growth, has long maintained a \"false prosperity\" in its economy through real estate and tourism under an economic structure with a hollowed-out manufacturing sector. The subprime mortgage crisis led to a sharp decline in real estate and tourism, cutting off Southern Europe's sources of income. Banks in countries such as Ireland and Spain have had to seek government assistance due to large amounts of bad real estate debt. Taking Ireland as an example, the local government injected at least 70 billion euros into the financial system, more than half of the GDP at the time. This led to the government being unable to borrow under the subsequent impact of European debt and having to seek help from the IMF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787d43a12dcb17ac7b010e11444e8d07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1. Against the backdrop of cross-holdings of Treasury Bond within the Eurozone, the rating downgrade became the trigger for the \"fiery conflict\".</b></p><p><b>The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis pushed Greece to a \"dead end,\" and the downgrade of Greece's rating was the first \"domino\" that triggered the European debt crisis.</b>After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, Greece, which was highly dependent on foreign investment, could no longer enjoy the economic dividends brought by exports and real estate. At the same time, since the ECB controls the monetary and exchange rate, Greece cannot stimulate the economy through independent monetary easing or currency devaluation, and can only choose to engage in massive Treasury Bond and expand fiscal spending. In early October 2009, the newly appointed Greek Finance Minister announced that the previous government's debt had been falsified. In fact, at that time, the fiscal deficit and public debt accounted for as much as 12.7% and 113% of GDP, respectively, far exceeding the 3% and 60% stipulated by the EU. In December, the three major rating agencies downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating and gave it a negative outlook, directly leading to a surge in Greece's 10-year Treasury Bond, a significant widening of the interest rate spread with Germany, and panic in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a918d6455be7c166b2c650eede522954\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be57e1656f3a830e584216fc4737818a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The successive defaults of Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy have gradually shifted the debt crisis from peripheral countries of the Eurozone to core countries.</b>The defaults of the \"PIGS\" countries differed. Portugal followed Greece's lead and increased its real fiscal deficit to 8%. The market was worried that it would not be able to safely weather the upcoming debt repayment peak. Portugal's 10-year Treasury Bond once approached 14.2% from 3.5%. For Ireland, the real estate bubble was the \"originator\". The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis impacted the real estate markets in Europe and the United States. In order to save the five major banks that were about to go bankrupt, the Irish government set a fiscal deficit ratio as high as 32% in 2010, public debt as a percentage of GDP as high as 100%, and its debt pressure surpassed that of Greece. The country's 10-year Treasury Bond soared to 9%. In October 2011, France, the core country of the Eurozone, was...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>The latter pointed out that France has the weakest debt performance among AAA-rated countries and its sovereign debt situation continues to deteriorate. Subsequently, Italy's public debt ratio climbed to 120%, second only to Greece, and rating agencies successively downgraded its sovereign rating. With Italy, France, and Spain accounting for as much as 55% of the Eurozone's Treasury Bond market, far exceeding that of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal (combined at only 7%), the European debt problem had evolved from a localized shock into a crisis for the entire Eurozone by the end of 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9032ac6c07f356abceccf84c92b758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At the same time, the European debt crisis has escalated from sovereign states to the level of commercial banks throughout the Eurozone.</b>Eurozone commercial banks hold a large amount of Greek Treasury Bond, with French, German, British, and Portuguese commercial banks alone accounting for more than one-third of Greek holdings. As Treasury Bond yields soared following a series of sovereign credit rating downgrades, commercial banks across Europe began to experience large-scale bad debt provisions, and the pressure to replenish capital suddenly increased. Taking Belgium's Dexia Bank as an example, the liquidity shock caused by European debt prevented it from addressing its risk exposure of over 20 billion euros, forcing it to become the first bank to collapse. Other large European banks, such as Societe Generale,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Their ratings were also downgraded due to their large holdings of Greek government bonds.</p><p><b>2.2. The belated bailout measures also caused the impact of European debt to spiral out of control.</b></p><p><b>The failure of core European countries, represented by Germany, to provide timely assistance led to a further escalation of the European debt crisis.</b>In fact, only Greece had a debt problem in the early stages of the European debt crisis, but Germany adopted a passive bystander attitude at the time, believing that Greece should first reform its high-welfare and high-deficit social structure and did not intend to continue to act as an \"ATM\". In early 2010, Merkel's government also threatened to kick members who did not comply with fiscal discipline out of the eurozone. This hardline stance exacerbated market panic, dragging Ireland, Portugal, and Italy, which also faced high debt problems, into the mix. Germany's hardline stance has also increased the cost of bailing out the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e83452454edb9f244374becaeaaf6f\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd8858e0e6e97ce19a74299f23ab516\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In mid-2010, Germany recognized the seriousness of the European debt crisis and began to establish an EU crisis management mechanism. However, missing the best opportunity still caused the entire Eurozone to pay higher costs.</b>In May 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel relented and agreed to take on the responsibility of maintaining the stability of the euro, ultimately deciding to provide Greece with a three-year loan and credit guarantee of 110 billion euros. However, more than six months had passed since the Greek crisis, and the chain reaction of European debt had spiraled out of control. Subsequently, the European Central Bank had to inject more than €1 trillion in liquidity into the market through two rounds of three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTROs). The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which involves weekly time deposit instruments to hedge liquidity injections. As of September 28, 2012, the ECB had purchased €208.83 billion in government bonds under the SMP programme. This intervention effectively lowered the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond by 8 basis points. The European Central Bank eliminates the tail risk of the euro by purchasing sovereign bonds (OMTs) on the secondary market. OMTs purchase sovereign bonds with maturities of 1 to 3 years, with no size cap or yield target, based on bailout programs such as the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f726a41026ac863575ccad237c0ec5\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The core contradiction in the European debt problem lies in the monetary unification of the Eurozone, but the lack of fiscal unification.</b></p><p><b>High welfare spending has forced European countries to rely heavily on bond issuance, but for peripheral countries with weak endogenous economic growth, it is tantamount to \"drinking poison to quench thirst\".</b>Europe is known worldwide for its high welfare. For example, in Italy and Greece, social welfare spending accounted for as much as 21% of GDP in 2009, while in the United States and Canada it was only 14.66% and 9.87% respectively during the same period. At the same time, the industrial structure of the peripheral countries of the Eurozone is unbalanced, with most of them relying on real estate and services as their pillar industries. The manufacturing sector is hollowed out, and they have to use debt to boost investment and stimulate consumption in order to maintain a seemingly \"peaceful\" but actually fragile economy. Therefore, the surge in debt repayment pressure brought about by European debt inevitably appeared first in peripheral countries with high welfare and high fiscal deficits. As early as 2007, Greece's fiscal expenditure had reached 6.7% of GDP, while Portugal and Spain were also around 5% of GDP, both exceeding the Eurozone warning line.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cda0d0996de5805a3e1b454690d34da\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71feaf044db90b2a18341d785a7f8306\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Joining the Eurozone gives peripheral countries such as Greece a certain amount of backing, enabling them to \"free-ride\" and expand their fiscal deficits at low cost.</b>Peripheral countries, due to their underdeveloped economies, had significantly higher borrowing costs before joining the Eurozone than core countries like Germany and France. However, after joining the euro, the market believed that the credit levels of countries across the Eurozone were consistent. Before the outbreak of European debt in 2010, the yields of both economically disadvantaged southern countries and economically developed northern countries in the 10-year Treasury Bond were around 5%, demonstrating the market's \"unfounded\" confidence in the Eurozone. As a result, economically weaker peripheral countries could leverage the Eurozone shell to obtain high credit ratings and borrow heavily at a lower cost. For a long time, core countries, led by Germany, have been capital exporters, while peripheral countries such as the \"European Pig Five\" have been capital inflows, resulting in long-term trade deficits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4957e68990c695b9351d3712298946\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250b57c451c5b1cb12b98dd3770c657\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Unable to regulate the economy through monetary policy, the peripheral countries of the Eurozone can only rely on fiscal stimulus, which ultimately leads to a snowball of debt out of control.</b>The monetary policies of EU member states are uniformly formulated by the European Central Bank, which has focused on maintaining the stability of the euro since its inception and has no obligation to manage financial markets. In other words, when the market needs expansionary monetary policy to regulate the economy, the ECB will not take action to stabilize the financial environment by prioritizing the depreciation of the euro. However, as the impact of European debt expanded, the ECB had to act as a \"lender of last resort\" at the end of 2011, providing liquidity supplements through open market operations. Taking Germany as an example, the Bundesbank provided nearly 500 billion euros in loans through the ECB's TARGET-2 system in order to reduce the repayment pressure on banks in heavily indebted eurozone countries.</p><p><b>2.4. International capital played a \"fueling\" role in European debt.</b></p><p><b>Wall Street had its eye on Greece, which was \"living on debt,\" as early as the early 2000s.</b>In 1999, Greece was excluded from the European Economic and Monetary Union because it did not meet the conditions: the Maastricht Treaty stipulated that Eurozone member states must meet two conditions: First, countries must keep their annual deficits below 3% of GDP; Second, each country's Treasury Bond must account for less than 60% of its total GDP. Greece uses the euro to the dollar exchange rate of 1 to 1 and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The currency swap (at the time, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was roughly 1:0.9) was a \"devil's agreement\" that allowed the Greek government to cover up a public debt of up to 1 billion euros, resulting in a Greek deficit of only 1.5% of GDP on paper (actually 4.1%). Greece met the criteria for becoming a member of the eurozone on paper and joined the eurozone in 2001. However, fiscal fraud can only cover up the problem; the debt itself will not disappear. Instead, Greece has had to create more currency swaps to cover up its debt and deficit, which has increased its debt burden and made it trapped in a debt spiral from which it cannot extricate itself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e21029ba71d609ae2dee610a906ec0\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to earning high commissions, international investment banks have also tied the core countries of the Eurozone to the \"pirate ship\" through financial derivatives.</b>After completing its transaction with Greece, Goldman Sachs purchased €1 billion in 20-year credit default swaps (CDSs) from German banks to hedge against Greek Treasury Bond risk, so that the underwriters could cover the losses in the event of payment problems with Greek debt. Given that Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, this move is tantamount to tying Germany to Greece's \"debt giant ship\". If the Greek government faces a payment crisis and the debt chain breaks, Germany will have to pay for 1 billion euros in debt.</p><p><b>3. Is the \"Minsky moment\" for European debt approaching? The European Central Bank has intervened, and short-term risks are controllable</b></p><p><b>3.1. Credit rating downgrades and ECB rate hike were key drivers of the escalating European debt crisis in 2010.</b></p><p>If we take the performance of Greek and Portuguese 10-year Treasury Bond yields during the European debt crisis as an example, after four rounds of sovereign credit rating downgrades and two rounds of ECB rate hike, the 10-year Treasury Bond in both countries jumped by 120-160 basis points, which is the \"mastermind behind the intensification of liquidity runs.\" In fact, when Greece announced its fiscal problems at the end of September 2010, the yield on the Greek 10-year Treasury Bond had jumped by only 20 basis points, far less than during the downgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab7de507966e0625a200fca71fe848c\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Furthermore, the European Central Bank misjudged the situation and tightened monetary policy prematurely, further fueling the European debt crisis.</b>In April 2011, the European Central Bank decided to end its emergency bailout of peripheral countries, raising the deposit facilitation rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, and rate hike it again to 75 basis points in July, which further worsened the European debt crisis. Greece's Treasury Bond yield soared to around 30%, an increase of about 50%. In November 2011, the European Central Bank resumed its interest rate cut bailout measures, and with the help of non-traditional bailout tools, the Eurozone economy gradually improved.</p><p><b>3.2. Comparison of the European Debt Crisis with the Current Ten Points: Short-term risks are controllable; attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan.</b></p><p>There has been no large-scale downgrade of sovereign credit ratings in 2010, the Eurozone's ability to control risks has been enhanced, and in the short term, European debt risk remains within a controllable range. In particular, the European Central Bank, having significantly learned from the \"lessons\" of not taking timely action during the previous round of European debt shocks, has already provided a \"preventative shot\" to the market and prepared a rescue plan, which has alleviated investors' current concerns to some extent. However, given that Europe is currently facing significantly higher pressures in areas such as inflation, economy, and geopolitical issues than in 2010, the outlook for European debt remains unclear. We believe that the implementation effect of the ECB's \"fragmentation\" plan, the TPI, remains a key focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864b9d8c4a504c7047be2670827d0e15\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2.1. Improvements compared to the European debt crisis: Risk tolerance and response speed have both increased.</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current situation with the European debt crisis in 2010, we have found five improvements:</b></p><p><b>1) Debt repayment costs have decreased.</b>Despite the current high level of government debt, the average interest rate on outstanding debt has decreased. During the 2011 European debt crisis, the average interest rate on Greece's outstanding debt was as high as 4.69%, while currently, the average outstanding interest rate in all Eurozone countries is below 3.50%, fluctuating around 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff2238505a03ecb2fe1baf7a811cdee0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a04e0995a13b1e48000ba117ca7f5\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) The bad debt ratio decreased and the capital adequacy ratio increased.</b>In terms of risk resistance, the bad debt ratios of Eurozone countries in this round of risks are all below 10%, while their capital adequacy ratios are above 10%. During the European debt period, Greece's capital adequacy ratio was below 0%, and its bad debt ratio was above 47%. Compared with the 2010 European debt crisis, European economies have a better ability to resist risks in this round of crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ed6b576e5aaca9245552291f612b88\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The European Central Bank has more experience in dealing with the 2011 European debt crisis.</b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde served as IMF Managing Director during the European debt crisis and was a \"troublemaker\" in resolving the crisis. Following the announcement of the July rate hike, in response to significant market concerns following the European Central Bank's monetary tightening plan, the ECB held an emergency meeting a week later to discuss corresponding measures and proposed launching a new bond purchase program in July. A month later, on July 21, the European Central Bank announced a 50 basis point rate hike, and at the same time launched a new bond purchase \"Transmission Protection Instrument\" (TPI) to prevent the problem of \"fragmentation\" from worsening.</p><p><b>The current debt repayment pressure is controllable, but if core countries such as Germany and France are unable to survive due to economic problems during the 2023 debt repayment peak, the ECB's bailout effect may be greatly reduced, and the European debt problem will also face uncertainty.</b>The five PIIGS countries had a total outstanding debt of approximately €350 billion in 2022, compared to the current available funds of approximately €360 billion in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), indicating that short-term risks are temporarily under control. However, heavily indebted countries will see a peak in debt repayment in 2023, with approximately 561.3 billion euros due in the five PIIGs, of which Italy accounts for 63%. The amount of debt repayment is huge, and the risks should not be underestimated. Judging from the ECB's current statements, the details of the newly launched TPI are still rather vague, such as requiring applicant countries to meet four basic requirements, including 1) compliance with the EU fiscal framework; 2) There are no serious macroeconomic imbalances; 3) Fiscal and public debt sustainability; 4) Macroeconomic policies are sound and sustainable.</p><p>From another perspective, if the current TPI targeted bond purchase method is similar to the bond purchase policy of the Treasury Bond Market Direct Purchase (OMT) program in the secondary market during the European debt period, it may need to comply with the principles of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM): the loan guarantee amount is 165% of the capital contribution amount, with Germany and France, the countries that contribute the most, bearing approximately 27% and 21% respectively. Considering that the EU provided €60 billion in bailout funds during the European debt crisis, and the IMF provided €240 billion in bailout funds, assuming that the EU and the IMF provide equal bailout funds, the remaining debt is spread over three years, requiring €150 million to be repaid annually. Germany and France would need to contribute €668.2 billion and €519.8 billion respectively annually over three years to repay the debt. These funds would account for approximately 18.7% and 16.2% of Germany's and France's GDP respectively, placing a heavy burden on core countries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f37bb4992a0c0655c979378becf817\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4) Market sentiment has improved somewhat after the ECB's action.</b>Despite panic in market sentiment following the European Central Bank's announcement of July rate hike, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 6% to 22,547.48. In the week that followed, the European Central Bank held an emergency meeting, and the stock market rebounded, with Italy's FTSE MIB index rising 2%. On July 21, the European Central Bank raised rate hike by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations, and launched a new TPI bond purchase program. The market reaction was less strong than expected, with Italy's FTSE MIB index closing slightly higher by 0.65% on the second day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4477efa53d7022dd5b39eb52c670e582\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) In this round of risk, the proportion of foreign holdings of Treasury Bond in Eurozone countries has decreased slightly.</b>Therefore, the risk of foreign capital \"fleeing\" during a crisis, leading to a chain reaction of soaring Treasury Bond rates, is slightly reduced. Taking Spain and Portugal as examples, as of the end of last year, 74% and 82% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic commercial banks and non-bank institutions, respectively, while in 2011 only about 64% and 67% of their Treasury Bond were held by domestic capital, respectively. The Italian, Greek, and Irish holdings in Treasury Bond during the current and European debt crisis are basically the same as they were during the European debt crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19d650708bc4e5d23e75e4068f23949\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36208dc67aed06319c7fcc15cd42435\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2.2. Compared to the current worsening of the European debt crisis: rising debt levels and economic pressure may lead to a decrease in bailout capacity.</b></p><p><b>Comparing the current situation with the European debt crisis in 2010, we have found five points of deterioration:</b></p><p><b>1) The economic pressure facing the Eurozone has increased significantly compared to the previous round. Germany, the \"economic locomotive\" of the Eurozone, has experienced its first trade deficit of 1 billion euros in 30 years, reducing its ability to provide crisis relief.</b>During the European debt crisis, the most significant external shock was the 2008 global economic crisis, which resulted in zero global GDP growth for the first time. Compared to this round of risks, the average GDP growth rate in the past two years has been 3%, which is weaker than the economic level before the European debt crisis. The Eurozone is facing its most severe geopolitical crisis since World War II, with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) at an all-time high, above 300. In addition, Europe, which has long relied on Russian imports, has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing its natural gas, oil, electricity and consumer goods prices to surge to $34.35 per million British thermal units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65c581f52939de86298cb6811327bd8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c730055545b283140c09b818d316c89c\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8357be18d5dce44af50c9c351e1de7\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ce2e58fbfb8e2b9cfd2024a149fbcc\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Eurozone countries are currently facing unprecedentedly high inflationary pressures.</b>Eurozone inflation is gradually approaching and rising, now far exceeding the level before European debt, with the harmonized CPI (HICP) reaching a year-on-year high of 8.6%, the highest level in history. Furthermore, the dual structure of separating fiscal and monetary policies among Eurozone countries has not changed, and the fact that \"fragmentation\" and unbalanced development among Eurozone countries have not improved also poses resistance to inflation regulation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a7cb88bc64070c0b1c07beead5e0e2\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2092286c9ee47d57e20c21d52bf088\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) The Eurozone's debt level remains high.</b>The debt-to-GDP ratio of the peripheral countries of the Eurozone is close to and exceeds the level of 2009, and the outstanding government debt balance has gradually increased from 600 billion euros during the European debt period to 1 trillion euros now.</p><p><b>4) The euro fell to a record low, and capital outflows continued.</b>In this round of debt risk, the euro has weakened compared to the European debt period. The euro has historically reached a high of 1.6 against the US dollar and a low of 1.2 during the European debt period. Now that the euro has weakened, the euro has fallen below 1:1 against the US dollar, reaching a historical low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5179b7a9e5ea3281459cc2ce33ca324c\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d46dde1623095785c85d21ee8e864a8\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5) The proportion of peripheral country bonds held by European commercial banks increased by 5%.</b>During the European debt crisis, Eurozone commercial banks held a large number of heavily indebted countries in Treasury Bond. As a result of the soaring Treasury Bond yields caused by the downgrade of sovereign credit ratings, European commercial banks gradually collapsed, and capital pressure suddenly increased. In this round of risks, commercial banks have increased their holdings of sovereign bonds of Eurozone countries, posing greater capital risks to banks. Taking Portugal as an example, the proportion of Portuguese sovereign debt held by major European commercial banks to the country's sovereign debt has increased by about 5% compared to the European debt era.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a22935ad810cdb8c0a9b8cd2f310a0\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3. The effectiveness of the ECB's TPI implementation is of paramount importance; pay attention to liquidity and credit indicator early warnings.</b></p><p>To avoid shocks to the Eurozone bond market during central bank rate hike, the European Central Bank, while announcing a 50 basis point rate hike, launched the \"Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)\" to target and unlimited new bond purchase programs. This aims to control the borrowing costs of heavily indebted Eurozone governments such as Italy, transmit monetary policy to all Eurozone countries, and avoid exacerbating the problem of \"fragmentation.\" However, it is worth noting that, unlike in 2011, Germany, the \"locomotive\" of the European economy, is also suffering from an economic recession, which may greatly reduce its enthusiasm for the ECB's bailout plan. Whether the bailout capacity, which accounted for about 21% of the ESM bailout plan during the European debt crisis, can be continued is also worth paying attention to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bf00b93ba00cdcc63429155976e045\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Since the European debt problem is essentially caused by credit defaults and liquidity runs, liquidity and credit indicators have a certain warning effect:</b></p><p>1) Liquidity indicators, such as the Euro LIBOR-OIS spread approaching 0.5%, should be taken seriously, as there may be chain debt risk exposure caused by insufficient interbank liquidity.</p><p>2) Credit indicators, such as when the credit default swap rate (CDS) is above 150, indicate that the market is concerned about sovereign credit risk.</p><p>3) The interest rate spread between the core and peripheral countries of the Eurozone has widened to more than 300 basis points. Italy may be the \"first domino\" in this round of European debt problems. The spread between Italian, German, and Italian 10-year Treasury Bond yields is gradually widening to over 200 basis points. If the spread gradually approaches the 300 basis points of the 2010 European debt crisis, we should be vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768567bc6fe0f18d58e5569515433dc8\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed5c286d9ae323db5bab55def20c9a1\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The European debt problem presents a \"crisis coexisting\" for my country.</b></p><p><b>4.1. European turmoil affects Sino-European trade in the short term, but the Chinese market is becoming increasingly important for revitalizing the European economy.</b></p><p><b>The EU is my country's second-largest trading partner, and the pressure on the European economy may lead to a slowdown in my country's import and export growth.</b>In 2021, my country's exports to the EU reached US$518.661 billion, accounting for 15.42% of the total. Imports amounted to US$309.931 billion, accounting for 11.54%. The potential debt problems in the Eurozone may subsequently impact China's imports and exports. Historically, when the Eurozone is under significant economic pressure, such as during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the 2010 European debt crisis, and the impact of the 2020 pandemic, my country's imports and exports with the EU have all turned from positive to negative year-on-year, which has also greatly dragged down my country's import and export trade. Under the impact of the last round of European debt, from Q1 2011 to Q3 2012, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI declined from 57.93 to 45.07. During the same period, my country's export growth rate fell from 26.42% to 4.43%, and its import growth rate fell from 32.99% to 1.39%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b59ac53cd28cc68ff5dea567184430e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c61d802f396d39129ace35cf2af81e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective, power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals are highly dependent on Sino-European trade.</b>In terms of exports, the power equipment industry accounts for the largest share, reaching 41.24%, with motors accounting for 18.91%, power equipment accounting for 19.79%, and power grid equipment accounting for 2.55%. From the perspective of domestic imports, the power equipment industry accounts for the largest share, reaching 46.20%, of which motors account for 21.37%, power equipment accounts for 22.25%, and power grid equipment accounts for 2.58%.</p><p><b>At the individual stock level, the top 100 companies in terms of overseas business scale or proportion are mainly concentrated in the electronics, home appliance and pharmaceutical sectors.</b>Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the largest overseas business revenue, 18 have electronics subsidiaries, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 3 optoelectronics companies, and 4 semiconductor companies. There are 7 listed home appliance companies, including 3 black appliance companies and 4 white goods companies. Among the 100 A-share listed companies with the highest proportion of overseas business revenue, 17 are in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, including 14 medical device companies, 2 chemical pharmaceutical companies, and 1 medical service company. There are 14 companies in the electronics industry, including 8 consumer electronics companies, 2 optoelectronics companies, and 2 listed semiconductor companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a02a7a7c245df32957dee0f005e2e48\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The economic pressure brought about by the European debt crisis may increase the EU's trade dependence on my country, and attention should be paid to the possibility of restarting the China-EU agreement in the future.</b>In terms of the content of the China-EU agreement, it mainly revolves around three aspects: market opening, fair competition, and investment protection. The first aspect is market opening, emphasizing that both sides will relax market access. In this regard, China has made unprecedented access commitments in many industries. The second aspect is fair competition, with both parties jointly committing to respecting intellectual property rights, improving labor standards, perfecting standard setting, and maintaining market order. The third aspect is investment protection. Both parties protect each other's investments, ensure a fair and transparent investment environment, and guarantee clear and transparent regulatory procedures. In May 2021, the European Parliament passed a resolution to freeze the China-EU investment agreement, thus shelving the agreement. However, as the Chinese market becomes increasingly important to revitalizing the European economy, Sino-European relations are expected to warm up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b944fbbc17b4fb6aa6d5e8e4ade8453\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2. With RMB substitution and diverging fundamentals, the Chinese stock, bond, and currency markets are expected to experience independent trends.</b></p><p><b>The escalating European debt crisis will trigger a \"risk-off\" mode for global financial assets, and the A-share market will not be immune in the short term. However, in the long run, the increase in the proportion of RMB as a reserve currency will boost the exchange rate and asset value.</b>Since 2022, the US dollar has appreciated by 8.9% against other countries and the RMB by 6.3% against the European Union and Japan, respectively. Behind this round of currency appreciation is the competitive rotation of international reserve currencies; As the proportion of the RMB in international monetary reserves continues to increase, the RMB and related assets will continue to appreciate in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad3d766fb509c5abb4d068ed0a422ed\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71a4770a0219ba65c4bb0323636807af\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_vDwqOA1KUM4bEpA0I7haQ\">李美岑投资策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e44b706229c298db732256920d2ace","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_vDwqOA1KUM4bEpA0I7haQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128143","content_text":"欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债魅影缠绕意大利。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行于7月21日晚超预期加息50BP，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代，后续9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。作为债务负担较重的欧猪五国一员，意大利最危险：1）2019年以来债务持续高增，当前在欧猪五国中债务占比接近六成；2）经济状况也在恶化，2018年新政府上台并未带来经济的改善，2019年以来GDP增速继续下滑至0%；3）民粹主义横行、通胀压力加剧均带来经济稳定性下降。2020年年底，意大利失业率高达9.15%。欧央行宣布加息后，意大利10年期国债收益率当即飙升至4.14%，德意两国利差也持续扩大至236BP左右，逐步接近2010年欧债危机时期水平。历史上来看，信用评级下调和欧央行加息是欧债危机加剧的重要推手。如果我们以希腊和葡萄牙10年期国债收益率在欧债危机期间的表现为例，四轮主权信用评级下调、两轮欧央行加息后，两个国10年期国债都出现120-160BP的跳升，是流动性挤兑加剧的“幕后黑手”。实际上，在2010年9月底希腊宣布财政问题时，希腊10年期国债收益率的跳升幅度仅20BP，远低于评级下调期间。此外，以德国为代表的欧洲核心国并未及时援助，直至2010年中才开始建立欧盟危机治理机制，导致欧债引发的流动性挤兑从边缘国蔓延至以法国为代表的核心国。短期风险可控，长期来看欧央行TPI的实施效果是重中之重，关注流动性指标和信用指标预警。欧猪五国在2022年未偿债务共计约3500亿欧元，对比当下欧洲稳定机制（ESM）可支配资金约3600亿欧元，短期风险暂时可控。但2023年偿债高峰下，欧猪五国到期规模约5613亿欧元，其中意大利就占据了63%，偿债体量巨大。当前推出的TPI定向购债工具尽管不设购买上限，但在具体实施细节上仍较为模糊。若德法等核心国因经济问题“自身难保”，欧央行的救助效果可能大打折扣，欧债问题也面临不确定。由于欧债问题本质上由信用违约和流动性挤兑造成的，后续持续关注流动性指标（LIBOR-OIS利差）与信用指标（信用违约互换利率CDS与德国-意大利10年期国债利差）。欧债问题对我国来说“危机并存”。经济层面，欧盟是我国第二大贸易伙伴，欧洲经济承压可能会导致我国进出口增速放缓，上一轮欧债冲击下，我国的出口增速从26.42%下至4.43%，进口增速从32.99%下跌至1.39%；另一方面，欧债问题带来的经济压力，可能会提升欧盟对我国贸易依赖度，未来应关注中欧协定的重启可能性。金融层面，欧债问题发酵将使全球金融资产开启“Risk Off”模式，A股市场短期也无法独善其身。但长期看，人民币替代+基本面分化，中国市场股债汇有望走出独立行情。风险提示：地缘政治危机；海外加息超预期；疫情扩散超预期。正文1.欧央行加入全球紧缩潮，欧债违约担忧再起1.1.通胀压力屡创新高，欧元区“负利率时代”成为历史俄乌冲突引发的油价攀升，导致欧元区通胀历史新高，巨额贸易逆差也使欧元跌至20年以来新低。欧盟进口的石油约有30%来自于俄罗斯。在经历了年初俄乌冲突导致的供应链紧张，以及欧美5月对俄实施部分原油禁运后，欧盟从俄罗斯进口的原油相比去年已下降20%，供需缺口持续仍在扩大。欧元区当前的通胀水平已达到8.6%，处于成立以来的历史新高；而剔除能源、食品等因素后的核心CPI为3.7%，这也显示了能源价格对于欧元区的显著影响。能源价格带来的进口成本推升以及外需疲弱，欧元区出现了成立以来最庞大的贸易逆差（324亿欧元），连欧洲经济“火车头”德国也在5月出现了30年以来首次贸易逆差的情况。为了阻止通胀和欧元走势进一步恶化，欧央行加入全球“收水模式”，欧元区告别为期八年的负利率时代。自98年成立以来，欧洲央行以通货膨胀率为核心变量调整货币政策。2021年7月，欧洲央行调整了货币政策调控策略，货币政策目标由原来的“低于但接近2%”变为2%的对称目标。如今欧元区的通货膨胀率已远超2%的目标，基于此，欧央行在7月21日晚宣布加息50个基点，至此，为期8年的欧元区负利率在第三季度前结束。此外，提振欧元汇率也是欧央行考虑加息的目的之一。当前由于巨额贸易逆差，欧元兑美元已跌破1：1，处于二十年以来新低，而在欧央行加息50BP后，欧元兑美元跳升90点。1.2.加息推升负债成本，欧债魅影缠绕意大利欧洲各国债务水平在2010年欧债危机后仍持续走高，此次加息可能会因推高借贷成本，进一步触发边缘国的违约风险。以“欧猪五国”为例，当下债务负担早已超过2010年欧债危机时的水平。其中，希腊国家债务占GDP比例接近200%，意大利，西班牙和葡萄牙紧随其后，国家债务占GDP比例在120%附近波动。欧央行在7月开启第一次加息后，9月、10月以及12月都存在继续收水的可能。未来欧元区各国偿债利息将会非线性跃升，加息计划将使重债国面临因借贷成本升高而出现债务危机的潜在风险。意大利可能是本次欧债问题中最危险的“易燃品”。2019年以来，意大利债务持续高增，未来10年未偿债务规模超过2万亿欧元，在欧猪五国中占比接近六成。同时经济状况也在恶化，2018年新政府上台并未带来经济的改善，2019年GDP增速继续下滑至0%，此后疫情对服务业的冲击也使意大利经济受损严重。此外，民粹主义横行、通胀压力加剧均带来经济稳定性下降。2020年年底，意大利失业率高达9.15%。欧央行宣布加息后，市场普遍担忧意大利将成为此次欧债违约的第一个“炸弹”，意大利10年期国债收益率当即飙升至4.14%，德意两国利差也持续扩大至236BP左右，逐步接近2010年欧债危机时期水平。2.欧债危机的本质是整个欧元区的流动性挤兑欧债危机是2008年次贷危机的衍生。内生增长较弱的南欧在制造业空心化的经济结构下，常年以房地产和旅游业维持本国经济的“虚假繁荣”。次贷危机带来的地产和旅游景气急速回落，切断了南欧的收入来源。爱尔兰、西班牙等国的银行由于形成了大量的地产债务坏账，不得不向政府求助。以爱尔兰为例，当地政府向金融体系注入了至少700亿欧元，超过当时GDP的一半规模，这也导致了政府在后续欧债冲击下无力举债、不得不向IMF求助的困境。2.1.欧元区内部交叉持有国债的背景下，评级下调成为“火烧连营”的触发点2008年次贷危机将希腊推上“绝路”，希腊评级下调是推导欧债危机的第一块“多米诺骨牌”。08年次贷危机后，对外依存度较高的希腊无法再享受出口和房地产带来的经济红利。同时，由于欧央行把控了货币和汇率的主导权，希腊无法通过独立的宽松货币或者汇率贬值的方式来刺激经济，唯有选择大发国债、扩大财政支出。2009年10月初，新上任的希腊财政部长宣布前任政府债务作假，实际上当时的财政赤字和公共债务占GDP的比例高达12.7%和113%，已经远超欧盟规定的3%和60%。12月，三大评级机构纷纷下调希腊主权信用评级，并且给予负面展望，直接导致希腊10年期国债出现飙升，与德国的利差显著走阔，恐慌情绪充满着市场。葡萄牙、爱尔兰 、西班牙以及意大利的接连“暴雷”，逐步将债务危机从欧元区边缘国引向核心国。“欧猪五国”的暴雷方式有所不同，葡萄牙紧随希腊也提高了实际财政赤字至8%，市场担忧其无法平安渡过即将到来的偿债高峰，葡萄牙10年期国债从3.5%一度接近14.2%。对于爱尔兰来说，房地产泡沫则是“始作俑者”。08年次贷危机导致欧美地产受到冲击，爱尔兰政府为了拯救即将破产的五大银行，2010年财政赤字率将高达32%，公共债务占GDP比例高达100%，负债压力赶超希腊，本国10年期国债飚至9%。2011年10月，欧元区核心国家——法国被穆迪盯上，后者提出法国在3A评级国家中债务表现最弱，主权债务状况持续恶化。随后，意大利的公共债务占比攀升至120%，仅次于希腊水平，被评级机构陆续下调主权评级。由于意大利、法国以及西班牙在欧元区国债市场的规模占比高达55%，远高于希腊、爱尔兰与葡萄牙三国（合计仅7%），欧债问题在2011年底已从局部冲击演变成为整个欧元区的危机。同时，欧债危机还从主权国家升级至整个欧元区商业银行层面。欧元区商业银行交叉持有大量的“欧猪五国”国债，仅法国、德国、英国和葡萄牙四国商业银行对希腊的持有占比就超过1/3。随着一列主权信用等级下调带来的国债收益率飙升，整个欧洲商业银行都开始出现大规模的坏账计提，资本补充压力骤然提升。以比利时德克夏银行为例，欧债导致的流动性冲击使其无法解决超过200亿欧元的风险敞口，被迫成为首家倒下的银行。其他欧洲大型银行，诸如法兴银行、法国巴黎银行等也因持有大量希腊公债而被下调评级。2.2.迟来的救助措施也使得欧债的冲击超出控制以德国为代表的欧洲核心国并未及时援助，导致欧债危机进一步升级。实际上，在欧债危机初期仅希腊一国出现债务问题，但当时德国采取消极旁观态度，认为希腊首先应该对高福利与高赤字的社会结构进行改革，并不打算继续充当“取款机”的角色。2010年年初，默克尔政府还扬言将不遵守财政纪律的成员踢出欧元区，这一强硬态度加剧了市场恐慌，同样面对高债务问题的爱尔兰、葡萄牙以及意大利都被卷入其中。德国的强硬态度也提高了欧债危机的救助成本。德国在2010年年中认识到欧债危机的严重性，开始建立欧盟危机治理机制，但由于错过了最佳时机还是使整个欧元区付出了更高的成本。2010年5月，德国总理默克尔松口，愿意肩负维持欧元稳定的责任，最终决定向希腊提供1100亿欧元的三年期贷款和信用担保。但此时已经距离希腊事件冲击超过半年，欧债的连锁反应已出现失控。此后，欧洲央行不得不通过两轮三年期的长期再融资操作（LTROs）向市场注入超过1万亿欧元的流动性。欧洲央行推出证券市场计划（SMP），每周进行定期存款工具以对冲注入的流动性，截至2012年9月28日, 欧央行SMP计划下买入的政府债券存量为2088.3亿欧元。这一干预有效地将希腊10年期国债收益率降低8BP。欧洲央行通过在二级市场上购买主权债券（OMT），消除欧元的尾部风险，OMT以欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）及欧洲稳定机制（ESM）的宏观调整计划等救助计划为前提，购买1至3年期的主权债，无规模上限和收益率目标。2.3.欧债问题的核心矛盾在于欧元区货币统一，但财政不统一高福利支出迫使欧洲各国高度依赖发债，但对于经济内生增长较弱的边缘国来说无异于“饮鸩止渴”。欧洲以高福利著称全球，以意大利和希腊为例，两国在2009年社会福利支出占GDP比重高达21%，而同期美国和加拿大仅为14.66%和9.87%。与此同时，欧元区边缘国家产业结构不平衡，大多以房地产、服务为支柱产业，制造业空心化，不得不通过举债来拉动投资、刺激消费，以此来维持表面“祥和”但实际脆弱的经济。因此，欧债带来的偿债压力骤升不可避免地率先出现在高福利、高财政赤字的边缘国。早在2007年，希腊财政支出已达到GDP的6.7%，葡萄牙和西班牙也在GDP的5%左右，均超过欧元区警戒线。加入欧元区给予了希腊等边缘国一定的背书，使其能够以低成本“搭便车”的方式来扩大财政赤字。边缘国家由于经济欠发达，在未加入欧元区之前的借债成本显著高于德法这样的核心国家。但加入欧元后，市场认为整个欧元区中各国的信用水平一致。在2010年欧债爆发之前，经济状况欠缺的南部国家与经济发展完善的北部国家在10年期国债的收益率水平都为5%左右，显示了市场对于欧元区“莫须有”的信心，因而经济较弱的边缘国可以凭借欧元区外壳获得高信用评级，以更低的成本大肆举债。一直以来，以德国为首的核心国家成为资本输出国，而“欧猪五国”这样的边缘国家成为资本流入国，存在长期的贸易逆差。在无法通过货币政策来调控经济的背景下，欧元区边缘国只能依赖财政刺激，最终导致债务“滚雪球”失控。欧盟成员国的货币政策由欧洲央行统一制定，后者在成立以来的重点是保持欧元的稳定，并没有对于金融市场的管理义务。换一句话说，当市场需要扩张性货币政策来调控经济时，欧央行在优先考虑到欧元贬值的情况并不会出手稳定金融环境。但随着欧债影响范围的扩大，欧央行在2011年底不得不充当“最后贷款人”的角色，通过公开市场操作给予流动性补充。以德国为例，德意志联邦银行通过欧央行的TARGET-2系统提供了近5000亿欧元的贷款，以此来降低欧元区重债国银行的偿付压力。2.4.国际资本在欧债中起到了“推波助澜”的作用华尔街早在2000年初就盯上了“举债度日”的希腊。1999年，希腊因为条件不符而被欧洲经济货币同盟拒之门外：《马斯特里赫特条约》规定欧元区成员国要满足两个条件：第一，各国必须将年度赤字控制在GDP占比的3%以下；第二，各国国债占GDP总值须在60%以下。希腊以欧元兑美元1比1的汇率与高盛签订货币掉期交易（当时欧元兑美元汇率大致为1：0.9），这一“恶魔的约定”为希腊政府掩饰了一笔高达10亿欧元的公共债务，使希腊赤字从账面上看仅为GDP的1.5％（实际为4.1%），希腊账面上符合成为欧元区成员国的标准，2001年加入欧元区。但是财政作假仅仅只能掩盖问题，债务本身并不会消失。相反，希腊不得不制造更多的货币掉期交易掩饰债务和赤字，这加重了希腊的债务负担，使希腊深陷债务漩涡无法自拔。除了赚取高额的佣金报酬以外，国际投行还通过金融衍生品将欧元区核心国家绑上了“贼船”。高盛在完成与希腊的交易后，向德国银行购买了20年期的10亿欧元信用违约互换（CDS）来对冲希腊国债风险，以便在希腊债务出现支付问题时由承保方补足亏空。由于德国是欧元区最大的经济实体，此举相当于将德国绑在了希腊的“债务巨轮”上。如果希腊政府出现支付危机，债务链条断裂，德国将不得不为10亿欧元债务买单。3.欧债“明斯基时刻”将至？欧央行出手，短期风险可控3.1.信用评级下调和欧央行加息是2010年欧债危机加剧的重要推手如果我们以希腊和葡萄牙10年期国债收益率在欧债危机期间的表现为例，四轮主权信用评级下调、两轮欧央行加息后，两个国10年期国债都出现120-160BP的跳升，是流动性挤兑加剧的“幕后黑手”。实际上，在2010年9月底希腊宣布财政问题时，希腊10年期国债收益率的跳升幅度仅20BP，远低于评级下调期间。此外，欧洲央行误判形势，过早收紧货币政策，为欧债危机再添一把火。2011年4月，欧洲央行决定结束对边缘国的紧急救助，将存款便利利率由0.25%提高到0.50%，并在7月再次加息至75BP，致使欧债危机进一步恶化，希腊国债收益率飙升至30%左右，升高约50%，2011年11月，欧洲央行重新开始降息救助措施，再加之非传统救助工具的补救，欧元区经济逐渐有所好转。3.2.欧债危机与当前十点比较：短期风险可控，后续关注欧央行“碎片化”方案效果当前并未出现2010年主权信用评级大规模下调的情况，欧元区控制风险能力增强，短期来看欧债风险仍处于可控范围。尤其是欧央行在当前显著吸取上一轮欧债冲击期间没有及时出手的“教训”，已提前为市场打“预防针”且准备好救助方案，一定程度上缓解了投资者目前的担忧。但由于当前欧洲面临的通胀、经济以及地缘问题等方面的压力显著高于2010年，欧债的前景仍不明朗，我们认为后续欧央行“碎片化”方案TPI的实施效果仍然是重点。3.2.1.当前相较欧债危机的改善：风险承受能力、应对速度均有所提升对比当下与2010年欧债危机期间，我们发现五点改善：1）偿债成本下降。尽管当前政府债务规模进一步高企，但未偿还债务的平均利率有所降低。2011年欧债期间，希腊未偿还债务平均利率高达4.69%，而当前，欧元区各国未偿还平均利率皆低于3.50%，在3%左右波动。2）坏账率下降、资本充足率提升。从抵御风险能力看，本轮风险欧元区国家坏账率均处于10%以下，资本充足率高于10%，欧债期间希腊资本充足率低于0%，坏账率高于47%，相较2010年欧债危机，欧洲经济体在此轮危机中有更好的抵御风险能力。3）欧央行经过2011年欧债危机，当前更有应对经验。欧洲央行行长拉加德在欧债危机时期担任IMF总裁，是解决欧债危机的“麻烦终结者”。在宣布7月加息后，为了应对市场在欧央行提出货币收紧计划之后出现的显著担忧，时隔一周欧洲央行即召开紧急会议讨论对应措施，提出在7月推出新债券购买计划的提案。随后1个月，欧央行于7月21日宣布加息50BP，与此同时，推出新债券购买“传导保护机制”（TPI：Transmission Protection Instrument）以防止“碎片化”问题加剧。当前偿债压力可控，但23年偿债高峰下，若德法等核心国因经济问题“自身难保”，欧央行的救助效果可能大打折扣，欧债问题也面临不确定。欧猪五国在2022年未偿债务共计约3500亿欧元，对比当下欧洲稳定机制（ESM）可支配资金约3600亿欧元，短期风险暂时可控。但2023年重债国将迎来偿债高峰，欧猪五国到期规模约5613亿欧元，其中意大利占就据了63%，偿债体量巨大，风险不容小觑。从当前欧央行的表态来看，此次推出的TPI在细节上仍比较模糊，例如要求申请国满足四项基本要求，包括1）遵守欧盟财政框架；2）没有严重的宏观经济失衡；3）财政与公共债务可持续；4）宏观经济政策健全且可持续。另一个角度来看，如果当前TPI定向购债的方式类似于欧债期间二级市场国债直接购买计划（OMT）的购债政策，可能需要符合欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）和欧洲稳定机制（ESM）的原则：贷款担保额度为出资额度的165%，出资最多的国家德国和法国将各自承担约27%和21%。考虑到欧债危机期间欧盟救助提供救助资金600亿欧元，IMF提供2400亿欧元救助资金，假设此次欧盟和IMF给出同等救助，剩余债务分摊至3年还清，每年需要偿还1.5亿欧元，德、法需要在3年内每年各自出资6682亿欧元和5198亿欧元才能偿还债务，这笔资金将分别约占据德国和法国GDP18.7%和16.2%，为核心国家带来沉重的负担。4）市场情绪在欧央行行动后有所回暖。尽管在欧洲央行宣布7月加息后，市场情绪出现恐慌，意大利富时MIB指数下跌6%至22,547.48。此后一周内，欧洲央行召开紧急会议，股市有所回暖，意大利富时MIB指数上涨2%。7月21日，欧洲央行超预期加息50BP，并推出的TPI新债券购买计划。市场反应不如预期激烈，意大利富时MIB指数在第二天小幅收涨0.65%。5）本轮风险外国持有欧元区国家国债占比稍有降低。因此，发生危机时外国资本“跑路“而造成国债率飙升的连锁反应的危险略微减弱。以西班牙和葡萄牙为例，截至去年年底，西班牙和葡萄牙国债的74%被和82%分别本国商业银行和非银行机构持有，在2011年时期其国债仅64%和67%左右分别被本国资本持有。而意大利、希腊和爱尔兰在当前和欧债危机中国债持有比例与欧债危机期间基本一致。3.2.2.当前相较欧债危机的恶化：债务规模攀升，经济承压可能导致救助能力下降对比当下与2010年欧债危机期间，我们发现五点恶化：1）当下欧元区面临的经济压力相较上一轮显著提升，作为欧元区“经济火车头“的德国，出现三十年以来的首次贸易逆差10亿欧元，对危机救助能力下降。欧债危机时期，最主要的外部冲击因素是08年全球经济危机，全球GDP出现首次零增速，对比此轮风险，近两年GDP平均增速3%，比欧债前经济水平更弱。欧元区面临自二战以来最严峻的地缘政治危机，地缘政治风险指数（GPR）处历年高位，高于300；此外，长期依靠俄罗斯进口的欧洲遭受俄乌冲突波及，其天然气、石油、电力及消费品价格大涨至34.35美元/百万英热单位。2）欧元区国家当前面临空前的高通胀压力。欧元区通胀水平逐渐靠近走高，现远高于欧债之前的水平，调和CPI（HICP）同比高达8.6%，达历史最高水平。此外，欧元区国家之间财政、货币政策分离的二元结构没有改变，欧元区国家之间“碎片化”和不平衡的发展没有得到改善的事实也为通胀调节带来阻力。3）欧元区债务规模仍在高位。欧元区边缘国国家债务占GDP比例接近并超过2009年时的水平，政府未偿还债务余额也从欧债期间的6千亿欧元逐渐上升到现在的1万亿欧元。4）欧元跌至历史新低，资本外流持续。在本轮债务风险中，欧元较欧债期间走弱，欧元兑美元在历史上最高为1.6，在欧债期间最低为1.2，如今欧元走弱，欧元兑美元跌破1：1，处历史最低点。5）欧洲商业银行持有的边缘国债券占比提升5%。欧债危机时欧元区商业银行交叉持有大量的重债国国债，在主权信用等级下调带来的国债收益率飙升的恶果下，欧洲商业银行逐渐崩盘，资本压力骤然提升。在此轮风险中，商业银行持有欧元区内国家主权债的比重上升，银行面临更大的资本风险。以葡萄牙为例，欧洲主要商业银行持有葡萄牙主权债务占该国主权债务比例比欧债时期增加了5%左右。3.3.欧央行TPI的实施效果是重中之重，关注流动性指标和信用指标预警为了避免欧元区债券市场在央行加息时遭受冲击，欧洲央行在宣布加息50BP的同时，推出“传输保护工具（TPI）”来定向且不限规模的新债购买计划，以控制意大利等负债累累的欧元区政府的借贷成本，将货币政策传递到所有欧元区国家，避免“碎片化”问题加剧。但值得注意的是，与2011年不同，由于此次欧洲经济“火车头”—德国也饱受经济衰退的困扰，对于此次欧央行救助计划的积极性可能会大打折扣，在欧债危机中出资占ESM救助计划资金约21%的救助能力是否能够延续也值得后续关注。由于欧债问题本质上由信用违约和流动性挤兑造成的，流动性指标与信用指标具备一定示警作用：1）流动性指标，例如欧元LIBOR-OIS利差逼近0.5%时应该引起警惕，可能存在银行间流动性不足导致的连锁债务风险暴露。2）信用指标，例如当信用违约互换利率CDS高于150，预示着市场对于主权信用风险产生担忧。3）欧元区核心国家与边缘国家的利差走阔至300BP以上。意大利可能是本轮欧债问题的“第一块多米诺骨牌” ，意大利德国意大利10年期国债收益率利差逐渐走阔至200BP以上，若利差逐渐逼近2010年欧债危机时期的300BP，应加以警觉。4.欧债问题对我国来说“危机并存”4.1.欧洲动荡短期影响中欧贸易，但中国市场对于重振欧洲经济而言重要性增强欧盟是我国第二大贸易伙伴，欧洲经济承压可能会导致我国进出口增速放缓。2021年我国对欧盟出口规模达5186.61亿美元，占比15.42%；进口金额为3099.31亿美元，占比11.54%。欧元区潜在的债务问题后续可能会对中国进出口产生影响。历史上来看，当欧元区经济压力较大时，例如2008年次贷危机、2010年欧债危机以及2020年疫情冲击期间，我国与欧盟的进出口同比均出现了由正转负的情况，同时也对我国进出口贸易也产生极大拖累。上一轮欧债冲击下，从2011年Q1到2012年Q3，欧元区的制造业PMI从57.93下滑至45.07，同期我国的出口增速从26.42%下至4.43%，进口增速从32.99%下跌至1.39%。行业层面来看，电力设备、电子以及基础化工对于中欧贸易的依赖较高。对外出口角度来看，电力设备行业占比最高，占比高达41.24%，其中电机占比18.91%、电源设备占比19.79%、电网设备占比2.55%；对内进口角度而言，电力设备行业占比最高，占比高达46.20%，其中电机占比21.37%、电源设备占比22.25%、电网设备占比2.58%。个股层面来看，海外业务规模或占比排名前100的公司主要集中在电子、家电以及医药领域。海外业务收入规模最大的100家A股上市公司中，有18家电子公司，包括8家消费电子、3家光学光电子和4家半导体公司；有7家家电上市公司，包括3家黑电、4家白电企业。海外业务收入占比最高的100家A股上市公司中，医药生物行业的公司有17家，包括14家医疗器械、2家化学制药以及1家医疗服务；电子行业的公司有14家，包括8家消费电子、2家光学光电子以及2家半导体上市公司。欧债问题带来的经济压力，可能会提升欧盟对我国贸易依赖度，未来应关注中欧协定的重启可能性。就中欧协定内容来看，主要围绕市场开放、公平竞争和投资保护三个方面展开。第一方面是市场开放，强调双方放宽市场准入，在这一方面中国在多个行业给出了前所未有的的准入承诺；第二方面是公平竞争，双方共同承诺尊重知识产权、改善劳工标准、完善标准制定和维护市场秩序；第三方面是投资保护，双方保护相互投资，确保投资环境公平透明、保障监管程序清晰明了。2021年5月，欧洲议会通过了冻结中欧投资协定的议案，中欧协定就此搁置。但随着中国市场对于重振欧洲经济而言重要性增强，中欧关系有望回暖。4.2.人民币替代+基本面分化，中国市场股债汇有望走出独立行情欧债问题发酵将使全球金融资产开启“Risk Off”模式，A股市场短期也无法独善其身。但长期看，人民币的储备货币占比增加抬升汇率和资产价值。22年以来，美元对各国、人民币兑欧日分别升值8.9%、6.3%。这一轮货币升值背后是国际储备货币的竞争轮替；随着人民币在国际货币储备中占比不断提升，未来人民币及相关资产也将持续升值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074636978,"gmtCreate":1658357454094,"gmtModify":1676536144188,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074636978","repostId":"1163029397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075890181,"gmtCreate":1658184629543,"gmtModify":1676536116377,"author":{"id":"3576195246415673","authorId":"3576195246415673","name":"Jefflau749","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b16bea38b728770eeacee83d0ca1b56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576195246415673","idStr":"3576195246415673"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ya","listText":"ya","text":"ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075890181","repostId":"1148974307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148974307","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658111581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148974307?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's so curly! The top brokerage firm dismantled Tesla and wrote a 94-page report.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148974307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If you've never disassembled a car, you'd be embarrassed to call yourself a tram analyst. Sell-side analysts are \"scrolling endlessly\"...</p><p>Following Haitong International's disassembly of a BYD \"Yuan\" last month and its 87-page research report showcasing detailed details of auto parts, CITIC Securities, the \"top brokerage firm,\" disassembled a Tesla Model 3 and wrote a 94-page research report.</p><p>Over two months, CITIC Securities' research department's TMT and automotive teams, in collaboration with multiple companies and institutions, completed a complete disassembly of the standard range version of the Model 3.</p><p>CITIC Securities stated:</p><p>The aim is to analyze the Tesla Model 3, a benchmark model for intelligent electric vehicles, to showcase Tesla's thinking on the intelligent electrification of automobiles as a leading global automaker, in order to clarify the possible direction of future industrial development and better support relevant decisions. Through disassembly, CITIC Securities conducted a detailed and in-depth analysis of Tesla's E/E architecture, three batteries, thermal management, and vehicle body.</p><p>domain controller architecture</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the E/E architecture has shifted from a distributed to a domain control architecture, and the decoupling of software and hardware is key to software-defined cars. Tesla's Model 3 is a leader in domain control architecture.</p><p><b>1) Body domain: The front, left and right three bodies use positional zoning rather than functional zoning to reduce wiring difficulty, and HSD is widely used to replace relays;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The front body domain controllers are located in the front cabin, which theoretically has a higher probability of collision. Therefore, they use aluminum alloy protective housings. The left and right body domain controllers, being located inside the passenger compartment, have a lower probability of encountering external collisions, and both protective housings are made of plastic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Cockpit Domain: Integrates the T-BOX into the cockpit domain controller and uses Intel's A3950 chip, which is closer to a gaming platform than a mobile phone;</b></p><p>The cockpit domain is an important part of the user experience, and Tesla's cockpit control platform is constantly evolving. The 2020 Tesla Model 3 that CITIC Securities disassembled this time uses the second-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU2):</p><p>The MCU2 consists of two circuit boards, one is the motherboard, and the other is a small wireless communication circuit board fixed to the motherboard (shown in the pink box in the figure). This communication circuit board includes an LTE module, an Ethernet control chip, an antenna interface, etc., which is equivalent to the T-box used for external wireless communication in traditional cars. Integrating it into the MCU can save space and costs. The 2020 Model 3 we're disassembling this time uses Telit's LTE module. After the 2021 model, Tesla switched its wireless module supplier to Quectel. The MCU2 motherboard uses a double-sided PCB, with the front side mainly containing various network-related chips, such as Ethernet chips from Intel and Marvell, LTE modules from Telit, and video serializers from TI. Another important function of the front is to provide external interfaces, such as Bluetooth/WiFi/LTE antenna interfaces, camera input/output interfaces, audio interfaces, USB interfaces, Ethernet interfaces, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The back of the MCU2 is more important, with an Intel Atoma 3950 chip at its core, paired with a total of 4GB of Micron memory and a 64GB eMMC memory chip also provided by Micron. In addition, there are WiFi/Bluetooth modules provided by LGInnotek.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>3) Driving range: Dual FSD chips, NPU offers better cost performance than Orin in the same area, and the Linux operating system is more suitable for large AI models;</b></p><p>Another important feature of Tesla is its Intelligent Driving, which is performed through its Autopilot Domain Controller (AP). The core of this section lies in Tesla's self-developed FSD chip; the rest of the configuration is not essentially different from other current autonomous driving controller solutions:</p><p>The HW3.0 version of the AP used in the Model 3 is equipped with two FSD chips, each configured with four Samsung 2GB memory chips, for a total of 8GB per FSD. Each FSD is also equipped with a 32GB Toshiba flash memory chip and a 64MB Spansion NorFlash chip for booting. In terms of networking, the AP controller includes Marvell Ethernet switches and physical layer transceivers, as well as TI's high-speed CAN transceivers. Positioning is also very important for autonomous driving, which is why it is equipped with a Ublox GPS positioning module.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>To achieve autonomous driving, Tesla has proposed a complete solution based on vision and centered on FSD chips:</p><p>Its peripheral sensors mainly include 12 ultrasonic sensors (Valeo), 8 cameras (3 front-facing cameras on the windshield roof, 2 front-facing cameras on the B-pillar, 2 rear-facing cameras on the front fender, 1 rear-facing camera at the rear, and 1 DMS camera), and 1 millimeter-wave radar (Continental).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Its core front-facing trilocular camera includes a main camera in the middle and telephoto and wide-angle lenses on both sides, forming a combination of different field of view ranges. All three cameras use the same ON Semiconductor image sensor. The millimeter-wave radar is placed near the vehicle logo at the front of the vehicle and consists of a circuit board and an antenna board. The millimeter-wave radar uses a Freescale control chip and a TI regulated power supply management chip.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>4) Electronic control domain: The Model 3 pioneered the use of 48 SiC MOSFETs instead of 84 IGBTs, significantly reducing its size and power consumption;</b></p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 is the first pure electric vehicle to use an all-SiC power module motor controller, pioneering the application of SiC.</p><p>The SiC model used in the Model 3 is STMicroelectronics' ST GK026. At the same power level, this SiC module uses laser welding to connect the SiC MOSFET, input busbar, and output three-phase copper. The package size is significantly smaller than that of a silicon module, and the switching loss is reduced by 75%. Using SiC modules instead of IGBT modules can improve system efficiency by about 5%, and reduce the number of chips and the total area. If the Model X IGBTs are still used, 54-60 IGBTs will be required.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5) Power range: The BMS manages a total of 2,976 21700 batteries, and its powerful software capabilities achieve consistent charging and discharging of each battery.</p><p>As an electric vehicle, the management of electrical energy and batteries is crucial for the Model 3, and the person responsible for managing the battery pack...<b>BMS</b>It is a highly difficult product:</p><p>The main control board is responsible for managing all BMS-related chips and is equipped with 7 sets of external interfaces, including control signals for the charging controller (CP), energy conversion system (PCS), and signals to the sampling board (BMB). In addition, it also includes dedicated current and voltage acquisition signals. The circuit board includes circuit modules such as a high-voltage isolation power supply and a sampling circuit. In terms of components, there are microcontrollers from Freescale and TI, as well as op-amps, reference voltage sources, isolators, data sampling chips, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Under the control of the BMS, the BMB circuit board specifically monitors the battery pack. For the Tesla Model 3:</p><p>There are four battery packs in total, each equipped with a BMB circuit board. The circuit layouts of the four circuit boards are different and can be easily distinguished from each other using the numbers on the circuit boards. They are connected together in sequence using a daisy chain, with daisy chains leading out from boards 1 and 4 and connecting to the P5 and P6 interfaces of the main control board.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Harnesses and Connectors</p><p>1) Wiring harness: CITIC Securities estimates that the value of wiring harnesses per vehicle is about 2,000 yuan. High-voltage wiring harnesses are the main increment of new energy vehicles. In order to reduce weight, the Model 3 has started to replace copper with aluminum. Low-voltage data cables will be reduced in the process of domain control.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Connectors: Electrification brings an increase in high-voltage connectors, while intelligentization brings demand for high-speed connectors. TE is the core supplier of the Model 3, and domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve breakthroughs.</p><p>On the connector of the power battery-electric drive high-voltage wiring harness,<b>Model3</b>It adopts<b>You</b>of<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><p>Its structure and function are similar to those of the HC Stak 35, but the difference lies in its size. As you can see, the HC Stak 25 is smaller than the HC Stak 35, so the terminals at the socket end of the HC Stak 25 are made up of 20 DEFCON terminals (the HC Stak 35 has 35). Different models share the same connector terminals. Connector terminals can be quickly assembled into different models by changing the number of stacks, which demonstrates the cost control advantages brought about by modular connector production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Battery: Tesla's intergenerational technology is leading, and the 4680 and CTC are future development directions.</p><p>1) The core concept of battery design is to improve specific energy: from small modules to large modules and then to moduleless CTC, the cell size has increased from 1865 to 2170 and then to 4680. The core trend is to reduce the number of non-energy structural components in the battery pack, reduce costs, reduce weight, and improve driving range.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 battery pack uses four large modules. Compared with the battery packs of the iD.4 X and BMW iX3 at the same time, it adopts large module technology, resulting in higher integration and a cleaner internal layout. Battery pack technology is still in a leading position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Value and changes of 4680 batteries: The 4680 achieves the impossible triangle of \"high energy density, high rate, and low cost\" through the combination of full tab, high nickel and high silicon, dry electrode, and CTC. As the number of batteries in the module increases and the demand for fast charging rises, the requirements for cooling, thermal conductivity and flame retardancy of the battery pack are increasing. The number of cooling pipes in the battery pack is increasing, the length of the cold pipes is decreasing, and sealing and fireproof foam are added to ensure the thermal stability of the battery pack.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The integration of the three electric motors and thermal management has been continuously improved, and thermal management has taken the lead in achieving full-domain integration.</p><p>1) The three-in-one integration enhances integration, with dual motors achieving complementary advantages: The Model 3/Y combines the drive motor, motor controller, and transmission into one, which is more integrated than the Model S/X. At the same time, the \"small three electric motors\" and battery pack are integrated, resulting in a compact structure and lower cost. The single-motor version evolved from an induction motor to a permanent magnet motor, while the dual-motor version evolved from a forward induction motor to a later permanent magnet motor arrangement. The two motors complement each other's advantages in the high-speed and low-speed regions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Comprehensive integration of thermal management greatly improves energy utilization efficiency: In terms of thermal management, through the application of four-way valves and eight-way valves, the entire vehicle thermal management has been upgraded from independent circuits for each part to one that integrates the air conditioning, battery system, and power system, integrating the entire vehicle heat source to improve the system's energy utilization efficiency. Tesla's three-electric and thermal management systems maintain a leading position in terms of high integration, and their exemplary role will lead the industry to catch up, upgrade, and innovate secondarily.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Automotive Body: Lightweight Demand: Integrated Aluminum Body Die Casting Becomes a Trend; Consumption Upgrades Make Sunroofs and Smart Headlights Become Fashionable</p><p>1) Body: Lightweight to meet energy conservation and improve range requirements, aluminum instead of steel is the best choice, and integrated die casting of the rear body will be carried out starting from the Model Y;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Headlights: The Model 3's exterior design combines technology and aesthetics, and the headlights use matrix LED light sources;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3) Automotive glass: The Model 3 sunroof is leading industry trends, and its penetration rate is expected to continue to increase;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4) Chassis: Adopting a control-by-wire chassis is essential for high-level autonomous driving.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities,<b>Model 3</b>The chassis is gradually becoming control-by-wire:</p><p>After disassembling the Model 3 chassis structure, we can see that in terms of suspension, all Tesla models use a front double wishbone independent suspension paired with a rear multi-link independent suspension, but are not equipped with air suspension. In terms of braking systems, Tesla vehicles use the most cutting-edge technology, namely the Ibooster in-line drive system; In terms of steering system, the Model 3 still uses traditional electric power steering. A control-by-wire chassis enables autonomous driving.<b>SAEL3</b>The cornerstone of \"execution\". An autonomous driving system consists of four parts: perception, decision-making, control, and execution. The chassis system is the \"execution\" mechanism in autonomous driving and is the core functional module that ultimately realizes autonomous driving. The realization of L3 and higher levels of autonomous driving cannot be achieved without the rapid response and precise execution of the chassis actuator, in order to achieve a high degree of synergy with the perception, decision-making and control of the upper layer. The upgrade of the chassis system also means the upgrade of functional modules such as the drive system, braking system, and steering system. Therefore, control-by-wire chassis, as the cornerstone of higher-level autonomous driving, are a concrete tool for developing autonomous driving.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's so curly! The top brokerage firm dismantled Tesla and wrote a 94-page report.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's so curly! The top brokerage firm dismantled Tesla and wrote a 94-page report.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If you've never disassembled a car, you'd be embarrassed to call yourself a tram analyst. Sell-side analysts are \"scrolling endlessly\"...</p><p>Following Haitong International's disassembly of a BYD \"Yuan\" last month and its 87-page research report showcasing detailed details of auto parts, CITIC Securities, the \"top brokerage firm,\" disassembled a Tesla Model 3 and wrote a 94-page research report.</p><p>Over two months, CITIC Securities' research department's TMT and automotive teams, in collaboration with multiple companies and institutions, completed a complete disassembly of the standard range version of the Model 3.</p><p>CITIC Securities stated:</p><p>The aim is to analyze the Tesla Model 3, a benchmark model for intelligent electric vehicles, to showcase Tesla's thinking on the intelligent electrification of automobiles as a leading global automaker, in order to clarify the possible direction of future industrial development and better support relevant decisions. Through disassembly, CITIC Securities conducted a detailed and in-depth analysis of Tesla's E/E architecture, three batteries, thermal management, and vehicle body.</p><p>domain controller architecture</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the E/E architecture has shifted from a distributed to a domain control architecture, and the decoupling of software and hardware is key to software-defined cars. Tesla's Model 3 is a leader in domain control architecture.</p><p><b>1) Body domain: The front, left and right three bodies use positional zoning rather than functional zoning to reduce wiring difficulty, and HSD is widely used to replace relays;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The front body domain controllers are located in the front cabin, which theoretically has a higher probability of collision. Therefore, they use aluminum alloy protective housings. The left and right body domain controllers, being located inside the passenger compartment, have a lower probability of encountering external collisions, and both protective housings are made of plastic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Cockpit Domain: Integrates the T-BOX into the cockpit domain controller and uses Intel's A3950 chip, which is closer to a gaming platform than a mobile phone;</b></p><p>The cockpit domain is an important part of the user experience, and Tesla's cockpit control platform is constantly evolving. The 2020 Tesla Model 3 that CITIC Securities disassembled this time uses the second-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU2):</p><p>The MCU2 consists of two circuit boards, one is the motherboard, and the other is a small wireless communication circuit board fixed to the motherboard (shown in the pink box in the figure). This communication circuit board includes an LTE module, an Ethernet control chip, an antenna interface, etc., which is equivalent to the T-box used for external wireless communication in traditional cars. Integrating it into the MCU can save space and costs. The 2020 Model 3 we're disassembling this time uses Telit's LTE module. After the 2021 model, Tesla switched its wireless module supplier to Quectel. The MCU2 motherboard uses a double-sided PCB, with the front side mainly containing various network-related chips, such as Ethernet chips from Intel and Marvell, LTE modules from Telit, and video serializers from TI. Another important function of the front is to provide external interfaces, such as Bluetooth/WiFi/LTE antenna interfaces, camera input/output interfaces, audio interfaces, USB interfaces, Ethernet interfaces, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The back of the MCU2 is more important, with an Intel Atoma 3950 chip at its core, paired with a total of 4GB of Micron memory and a 64GB eMMC memory chip also provided by Micron. In addition, there are WiFi/Bluetooth modules provided by LGInnotek.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>3) Driving range: Dual FSD chips, NPU offers better cost performance than Orin in the same area, and the Linux operating system is more suitable for large AI models;</b></p><p>Another important feature of Tesla is its Intelligent Driving, which is performed through its Autopilot Domain Controller (AP). The core of this section lies in Tesla's self-developed FSD chip; the rest of the configuration is not essentially different from other current autonomous driving controller solutions:</p><p>The HW3.0 version of the AP used in the Model 3 is equipped with two FSD chips, each configured with four Samsung 2GB memory chips, for a total of 8GB per FSD. Each FSD is also equipped with a 32GB Toshiba flash memory chip and a 64MB Spansion NorFlash chip for booting. In terms of networking, the AP controller includes Marvell Ethernet switches and physical layer transceivers, as well as TI's high-speed CAN transceivers. Positioning is also very important for autonomous driving, which is why it is equipped with a Ublox GPS positioning module.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>To achieve autonomous driving, Tesla has proposed a complete solution based on vision and centered on FSD chips:</p><p>Its peripheral sensors mainly include 12 ultrasonic sensors (Valeo), 8 cameras (3 front-facing cameras on the windshield roof, 2 front-facing cameras on the B-pillar, 2 rear-facing cameras on the front fender, 1 rear-facing camera at the rear, and 1 DMS camera), and 1 millimeter-wave radar (Continental).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Its core front-facing trilocular camera includes a main camera in the middle and telephoto and wide-angle lenses on both sides, forming a combination of different field of view ranges. All three cameras use the same ON Semiconductor image sensor. The millimeter-wave radar is placed near the vehicle logo at the front of the vehicle and consists of a circuit board and an antenna board. The millimeter-wave radar uses a Freescale control chip and a TI regulated power supply management chip.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>4) Electronic control domain: The Model 3 pioneered the use of 48 SiC MOSFETs instead of 84 IGBTs, significantly reducing its size and power consumption;</b></p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 is the first pure electric vehicle to use an all-SiC power module motor controller, pioneering the application of SiC.</p><p>The SiC model used in the Model 3 is STMicroelectronics' ST GK026. At the same power level, this SiC module uses laser welding to connect the SiC MOSFET, input busbar, and output three-phase copper. The package size is significantly smaller than that of a silicon module, and the switching loss is reduced by 75%. Using SiC modules instead of IGBT modules can improve system efficiency by about 5%, and reduce the number of chips and the total area. If the Model X IGBTs are still used, 54-60 IGBTs will be required.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>5) Power range: The BMS manages a total of 2,976 21700 batteries, and its powerful software capabilities achieve consistent charging and discharging of each battery.</p><p>As an electric vehicle, the management of electrical energy and batteries is crucial for the Model 3, and the person responsible for managing the battery pack...<b>BMS</b>It is a highly difficult product:</p><p>The main control board is responsible for managing all BMS-related chips and is equipped with 7 sets of external interfaces, including control signals for the charging controller (CP), energy conversion system (PCS), and signals to the sampling board (BMB). In addition, it also includes dedicated current and voltage acquisition signals. The circuit board includes circuit modules such as a high-voltage isolation power supply and a sampling circuit. In terms of components, there are microcontrollers from Freescale and TI, as well as op-amps, reference voltage sources, isolators, data sampling chips, etc.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Under the control of the BMS, the BMB circuit board specifically monitors the battery pack. For the Tesla Model 3:</p><p>There are four battery packs in total, each equipped with a BMB circuit board. The circuit layouts of the four circuit boards are different and can be easily distinguished from each other using the numbers on the circuit boards. They are connected together in sequence using a daisy chain, with daisy chains leading out from boards 1 and 4 and connecting to the P5 and P6 interfaces of the main control board.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Harnesses and Connectors</p><p>1) Wiring harness: CITIC Securities estimates that the value of wiring harnesses per vehicle is about 2,000 yuan. High-voltage wiring harnesses are the main increment of new energy vehicles. In order to reduce weight, the Model 3 has started to replace copper with aluminum. Low-voltage data cables will be reduced in the process of domain control.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Connectors: Electrification brings an increase in high-voltage connectors, while intelligentization brings demand for high-speed connectors. TE is the core supplier of the Model 3, and domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve breakthroughs.</p><p>On the connector of the power battery-electric drive high-voltage wiring harness,<b>Model3</b>It adopts<b>You</b>of<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><p>Its structure and function are similar to those of the HC Stak 35, but the difference lies in its size. As you can see, the HC Stak 25 is smaller than the HC Stak 35, so the terminals at the socket end of the HC Stak 25 are made up of 20 DEFCON terminals (the HC Stak 35 has 35). Different models share the same connector terminals. Connector terminals can be quickly assembled into different models by changing the number of stacks, which demonstrates the cost control advantages brought about by modular connector production.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Battery: Tesla's intergenerational technology is leading, and the 4680 and CTC are future development directions.</p><p>1) The core concept of battery design is to improve specific energy: from small modules to large modules and then to moduleless CTC, the cell size has increased from 1865 to 2170 and then to 4680. The core trend is to reduce the number of non-energy structural components in the battery pack, reduce costs, reduce weight, and improve driving range.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities, the Model 3 battery pack uses four large modules. Compared with the battery packs of the iD.4 X and BMW iX3 at the same time, it adopts large module technology, resulting in higher integration and a cleaner internal layout. Battery pack technology is still in a leading position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Value and changes of 4680 batteries: The 4680 achieves the impossible triangle of \"high energy density, high rate, and low cost\" through the combination of full tab, high nickel and high silicon, dry electrode, and CTC. As the number of batteries in the module increases and the demand for fast charging rises, the requirements for cooling, thermal conductivity and flame retardancy of the battery pack are increasing. The number of cooling pipes in the battery pack is increasing, the length of the cold pipes is decreasing, and sealing and fireproof foam are added to ensure the thermal stability of the battery pack.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The integration of the three electric motors and thermal management has been continuously improved, and thermal management has taken the lead in achieving full-domain integration.</p><p>1) The three-in-one integration enhances integration, with dual motors achieving complementary advantages: The Model 3/Y combines the drive motor, motor controller, and transmission into one, which is more integrated than the Model S/X. At the same time, the \"small three electric motors\" and battery pack are integrated, resulting in a compact structure and lower cost. The single-motor version evolved from an induction motor to a permanent magnet motor, while the dual-motor version evolved from a forward induction motor to a later permanent magnet motor arrangement. The two motors complement each other's advantages in the high-speed and low-speed regions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Comprehensive integration of thermal management greatly improves energy utilization efficiency: In terms of thermal management, through the application of four-way valves and eight-way valves, the entire vehicle thermal management has been upgraded from independent circuits for each part to one that integrates the air conditioning, battery system, and power system, integrating the entire vehicle heat source to improve the system's energy utilization efficiency. Tesla's three-electric and thermal management systems maintain a leading position in terms of high integration, and their exemplary role will lead the industry to catch up, upgrade, and innovate secondarily.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Automotive Body: Lightweight Demand: Integrated Aluminum Body Die Casting Becomes a Trend; Consumption Upgrades Make Sunroofs and Smart Headlights Become Fashionable</p><p>1) Body: Lightweight to meet energy conservation and improve range requirements, aluminum instead of steel is the best choice, and integrated die casting of the rear body will be carried out starting from the Model Y;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2) Headlights: The Model 3's exterior design combines technology and aesthetics, and the headlights use matrix LED light sources;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3) Automotive glass: The Model 3 sunroof is leading industry trends, and its penetration rate is expected to continue to increase;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4) Chassis: Adopting a control-by-wire chassis is essential for high-level autonomous driving.</p><p>According to CITIC Securities,<b>Model 3</b>The chassis is gradually becoming control-by-wire:</p><p>After disassembling the Model 3 chassis structure, we can see that in terms of suspension, all Tesla models use a front double wishbone independent suspension paired with a rear multi-link independent suspension, but are not equipped with air suspension. In terms of braking systems, Tesla vehicles use the most cutting-edge technology, namely the Ibooster in-line drive system; In terms of steering system, the Model 3 still uses traditional electric power steering. A control-by-wire chassis enables autonomous driving.<b>SAEL3</b>The cornerstone of \"execution\". An autonomous driving system consists of four parts: perception, decision-making, control, and execution. The chassis system is the \"execution\" mechanism in autonomous driving and is the core functional module that ultimately realizes autonomous driving. The realization of L3 and higher levels of autonomous driving cannot be achieved without the rapid response and precise execution of the chassis actuator, in order to achieve a high degree of synergy with the perception, decision-making and control of the upper layer. The upgrade of the chassis system also means the upgrade of functional modules such as the drive system, braking system, and steering system. Therefore, control-by-wire chassis, as the cornerstone of higher-level autonomous driving, are a concrete tool for developing autonomous driving.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1148974307","content_text":"没拆过车，都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”，用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后，“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3，并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月，中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称：希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析，展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考，以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向，更好地支持相关决策。通过拆解，中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。域控制器架构据中信证券，E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构，软硬件实现解耦，是软件定义汽车的关键，特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。1）车身域：前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区，意在降低布线难度，大量采用HSD替代继电器；前车身域控制器的位置在前舱，这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高，因此采用铝合金的保护外壳，而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内，遇到外界碰撞的概率较低，保护外壳均采用塑料结构：2）座舱域：将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器，同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片，思路更接近游戏平台而非手机；座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分，特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器（MCU2）：MCU2由两块电路板构成，一块是主板，另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板（图中粉色框所示）。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等，相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box，此次将其集成在MCU中，能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组，在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板，正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片，例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片，Telit的LTE模组，TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口，如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。而MCU2的背面更为重要，其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片，搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。3）驾驶域：双FSD芯片，NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比，采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型；特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶，这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器（AP）来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片，其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别：在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中，配备两颗FSD芯片，每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒，单FSD总计8GB，同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面，AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器，此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说，定位也十分重要，因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。为了实现自动驾驶，特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础，以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案：其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器（Valeo）、8个摄像头（风挡玻璃顶3个前视，B柱2个拍摄侧前方，前翼子板2个后视，车尾1个后视摄像头，以及1个DMS摄像头）、1个毫米波雷达（大陆）。其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头，形成不同视野范围的搭配，三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近，包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。4）电控域：Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT，体积、功耗大幅减小；据中信证券，Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车，开创SiC应用的先河：Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下，这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接，封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块，并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块，其系统效率可以提高5%左右，芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT，则需要54-60颗IGBT。5）动力域：BMS共管理2976节21700电池，强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。Model3作为电动车，电能和电池的管理十分重要，而负责管理电池组的BMS是一个高难度产品:主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片，共设置7组对外接口，包含了对充电控制器（CP）、能量转换系统（PCS）的控制信号，以及到采样板（BMB）的信号，另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面，有Freescale和TI的单片机，以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。在BMS的控制下，具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板，对于特斯拉model3而言:共有4个电池组，每一组配备一个BMB电路板，并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同，彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别，并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起，在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。线束和连接器1）线束：中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元，高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量，Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜，低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少；2）连接器：电动化带来高压连接器增量，智能化带来高速连接器需求，TE（泰科）是Model3的核心供应商，国产厂商有望取得突破。在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上，Model3采用的是TE的HC Stak 25：其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似，不同点在于尺寸的大小，可以看到，HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小，因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成（HC Stak 35为35片），不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装，这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。电池：特斯拉代际技术领先，4680和CTC是后续发展方向1）电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量：由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC，电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680，核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量，降低成本减少重量，提升续航里程。据中信证券，Model3电池包采用4块大模组，与同期的iD.4 X，宝马iX3的电池包相比，采用大模组技术，集成度更高，内部布局更为整洁，电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。2）4680电池的价值及变化：4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合，实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升，对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升，电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少，增加灌封、防火泡棉，保障电池包热稳定性。三电与热管理：三电集成度不断提高，热管理率先实现全域打通。1）三合一提升集成度，双电机实现优势互补：Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一，集成度相比Model S/X提高，同时“小三电”和电池包集成，结构紧凑成本更低；单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变，双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进，两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。2）热管理全域打通，大大提升能量利用效率：热管理上，通过四通阀、八通阀的应用，由各部分独立的回路，向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级，整车热源集成，提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先，其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。汽车车身：轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势，消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流1）车身：轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求，以铝代钢是最佳选择，并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸；2）车灯：Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感，车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源；3）汽车玻璃：Model3天幕引领行业趋势，渗透率有望不断提升；4）底盘：采用线控底盘，是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。据中信证券，Model 3底盘逐步实现线控化：经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解，我们看到：悬架方面，特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置，未配置空气悬架；制动系统方面，特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术，即线控制动系统Ibooster；转向系统方面，Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。线控底盘是实现自动驾驶SAEL3的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分，其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构，是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行，以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以，线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石，是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}