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- Neptune777Neptune777
  ·2021-06-28
  IC？
  Everyone's speculating on chips, but which chips are most in short supply, and where are the opportunities?
  下游景气程度越高，芯片需求也会随之越高。芯片短缺已经超过半年的时间了，从去年年底到现在，芯片紧缺的程度持续在加重，全球各大晶圆代工厂、IC设计公司（包括IDM）纷纷宣布涨价，今年Q2开启第二波涨价
  Everyone's speculating on chips, but which chips are most in short supply, and where are the opportunities?
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The chip shortage has lasted for more than six months. From the end of last year until now, the chip shortage has continued to worsen, and major wafer foundries and IC design companies around the world (including IDM) have announced price increases.<b>The second wave of price increases began in Q2 of this year, followed by a third wave in July. The entire industry is talking about a chip shortage, but what kind of chips are most in short supply?</b></p><p>As we have mentioned many times in recent reports, from the perspective of the industry chain, midstream wafer manufacturing includes design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing. Among them, design companies are the ones who benefit the most in this round of semiconductor upward cycle. Due to the high prosperity of downstream industries (especially new energy vehicles and small household appliances), design companies can effectively pass on the price increases in the manufacturing process to downstream industries. Furthermore, because design companies control their clients, they have stronger bargaining power over downstream applications when market supply is tight. This is one of the core reasons why design companies perform better in stock price.</p><p>There are many downstream applications for semiconductors, and today we are focusing on the most scarce MCU (Micro controller Unit).</p><p>An MCU can be understood as a small CPU, which means that the frequency and specifications of a normal CPU are reduced, and then memory, counters, USB, A/D conversion, UART, and even LCD driver circuits are integrated into a single chip to form a miniature computer. This chip can implement programming functions and control the terminal by writing a program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2d39cbf219a94c46d12deadc16e6b1\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's first look at how scarce the MCU is right now. The normal delivery time of only 8-10 weeks has now been significantly extended, with major international manufacturers including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>In all cases, delivery times have been significantly extended several times over.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc53edafefaa241dcc4e64cc3aa2d2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the price of MCUs is also skyrocketing. Taking STM32F103RCT6, STMicroelectronics' best-selling model, as an example, it was only 12.35 yuan/chip in 2019, 73.13 yuan/chip in December 2020, and reached 157.95 yuan/chip in May 2021, an increase of more than 10 times in two years.</p><p>Judging from the current delivery time and the magnitude of the price increase, it can be seen that MCUs are currently in a very short supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51543db28dce27f8c5038059c54b9acf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Downstream sectors with high prosperity</b></p><p>When we talk about the investment logic of IC design, foreign manufacturers mainly use the IDM model, while domestic manufacturers mainly use the Fabless model. For pure design companies like Fabless, a key point is to look at the prosperity of their downstream applications. Generally speaking, the higher the downstream prosperity, the higher the prosperity (i.e., demand) for chips will be. After that, let's look at the company's ability to obtain production capacity.</p><p>The application scenarios of MCUs can be divided into several analogies, such as the Internet of Things (communication + MCU integration), consumer electronics (IoT),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home and smart wearables), automotive electronics (gasoline vehicles and new energy vehicles), industrial control (industrial intelligence), etc. Among them, the best-performing sectors are small home appliances in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles in automobiles.</p><p>Next, we will start from<b>Let's look at these two directions to see which companies will benefit from the high prosperity of small home appliances and new energy vehicles.</b></p><p><b>1. Small household appliances</b></p><p>First, let's look at the main MCU companies in the small appliance sector:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300327\">Zhongying Electronics</a>300327.SZ, whose main business is MCU chip design, is mainly used in the small home appliance sector. At the same time, it is gradually expanding into other industrial and consumer scenarios, with the home appliance sector having the highest market share.</p><p>In China, the market share of small home appliance MCUs is about 20%, ranking among the top three; However, its market share in white goods is less than 10%. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the new demand brought about by the localization of the supply chain of downstream domestic white goods manufacturers such as Midea, as well as the increase in ASP brought about by the upgrade of the company's products from non-inverter to inverter air conditioners.</p><p>With the development trend of intelligent and high-end home appliances, the company's revenue in the field of small home appliance MCUs will continue to expand steadily in the future with the continuous increase in home appliance categories and the upgrading of home appliance MCUs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e557a603f461248f474e6f1c414531d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of insufficient industrial capacity supply, wafer manufacturing prices are rising. With chips in short supply, Zhongying is also appropriately passing on costs to downstream suppliers. Most products have raised prices since January 1, 2021, mainly reflecting the increase in the upstream supply chain. In the future, if production capacity is resolved, product prices may face some downward pressure every year.</p><p>Since last year, Zhongying has taken corresponding measures and made advance arrangements to actively secure production capacity in upstream supply chains such as wafer fabs and packaging and testing plants. For example, Zhongying mostly focuses on 8-inch wafers with mature processes, while a small number of chip manufacturing processes have shifted from 8-inch to 12-inch wafer foundries, bringing some new production capacity. However, the company's downstream demand is strong, and the new production capacity secured in the short term is still insufficient to absorb customer order demand. The company and its distributors have basically no inventory, and the shortage of MCUs will continue in the short term.</p><p>Overall, the logic behind Zhongying Electronics' simultaneous increase in both volume and price is quite clear.</p><p><b>2. New energy vehicles</b></p><p>The global and domestic automotive MCU markets are mainly dominated by NXP, Renesas, Infineon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">Microchip Technology</a>They occupy a total market share of approximately 85%. Due to the stringent quality standards of automotive-grade MCUs, the complex certification process, and high investment, it is difficult to generate profits in the short term. Furthermore, due to the late start of automotive MCUs in China, few companies are involved in this field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99a6b9194365f8290a34c6e25986286\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the main companies in China that have mass-produced MCUs include: Jiefa Technology, Shanghai Xinwang Microelectronics, Saiteng Microelectronics, and AMEC Semiconductor. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Companies such as ChipWon Microelectronics, Saiteng, and Jiefa Technology have already achieved pre-installed products, but they are still basically limited to relatively simple control applications such as car windows, lighting, and cooling systems, while their applications in complex fields such as power control, intelligent cockpits, and ADAS are relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb418fcf793a1eaee6932ee868f186a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688595\">Chipsea Technology</a>The MCU passed AEC-Q100 automotive-grade certification in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">GigaDevice</a>Automotive-grade MCU products entered the tape-out stage around mid-2021, and their NOR Flash has passed automotive-grade certification.</p><p>Let's focus on GigaDevice. The company's businesses, which are about to see both volume and price increases, include DRAM, Nor Flash, and MCU. Nor and MCU are both core main chips for IoT and automotive applications, which could reach a market potential of $20-30 billion.</p><p>Taking MCUs as an example, global MCU manufacturing processes are mainly concentrated in mature process ranges such as 180/130nm, 90nm and 40nm. Given the current tight MCU production capacity, GigaDevice has gained production capacity flexibility by quickly transitioning to the SiP packaging model. In addition, the company has raised prices multiple times since 2021, with an average ASP of 4 yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 5 yuan in 2021, continuing to benefit from the domestic substitution dividend brought about by this round of shortages and price increases.</p><p>In June of this year, GigaDevice also launched its own brand DRAM products. On the one hand, it received technological and production capacity support from Changxin, and its 19nm DDR4 and 17nm DDR3 have surpassed Huabang Electronics and Nanya Technology in niche market manufacturing processes. On the other hand, niche DRAM is essentially similar to NOR Flash and MCU, both of which have long-tail customer attributes. GigaDevice has the most complete niche market sales channels and more than 20,000 customers in the country, which can empower subsequent niche DRAM sales, and its market share is expected to increase rapidly.</p><p>The company's revenue share from MCUs and Nor Flash is constantly increasing, which proves the logic mentioned earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c449f10b84e86419c917162399c00b86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>GigaDevice has completed the synergy of its three product lines: DRAM, MCU, and Nor Flash. Given the current industry boom and the strengthening trend of domestic substitution, the market potential is enormous, and GigaDevice's growth attributes are highlighted in the next 2-3 years.</p><p>In addition, in the MCU field, downstream applications in fields such as the Internet of Things, smart wearable devices, and industrial control have also seen significant growth. Core token companies include Espressif Systems, Beijing Junzheng, and Chipsea Technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deeec58253bba54c9fdde500f9ee005\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the major trend of intelligent electronic products, the demand for MCUs in almost all electronic products will increase. In the past, large overseas manufacturers occupied the main market share. However, it often takes 1-2 years for these products to enter the downstream supply chain, and under normal circumstances, it is difficult for domestic manufacturers to enter the supply chain.</p><p>After years of accumulation, domestic manufacturers have gradually achieved product technical specifications that meet the needs of downstream customers. However, the recent pandemic combined with the surge in downstream demand has led to a shortage of goods for overseas suppliers. Domestic manufacturers can deliver products with shorter delivery times, and leading domestic MCU manufacturers are accelerating the introduction of various downstream end customers, thus accelerating domestic substitution.</p><p>We expect to achieve good performance in 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone's speculating on chips, but which chips are most in short supply, and where are the opportunities?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone's speculating on chips, but which chips are most in short supply, and where are the opportunities?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The higher the downstream economy, the higher the demand for chips will be. The chip shortage has lasted for more than six months. From the end of last year until now, the chip shortage has continued to worsen, and major wafer foundries and IC design companies around the world (including IDM) have announced price increases.<b>The second wave of price increases began in Q2 of this year, followed by a third wave in July. The entire industry is talking about a chip shortage, but what kind of chips are most in short supply?</b></p><p>As we have mentioned many times in recent reports, from the perspective of the industry chain, midstream wafer manufacturing includes design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing. Among them, design companies are the ones who benefit the most in this round of semiconductor upward cycle. Due to the high prosperity of downstream industries (especially new energy vehicles and small household appliances), design companies can effectively pass on the price increases in the manufacturing process to downstream industries. Furthermore, because design companies control their clients, they have stronger bargaining power over downstream applications when market supply is tight. This is one of the core reasons why design companies perform better in stock price.</p><p>There are many downstream applications for semiconductors, and today we are focusing on the most scarce MCU (Micro controller Unit).</p><p>An MCU can be understood as a small CPU, which means that the frequency and specifications of a normal CPU are reduced, and then memory, counters, USB, A/D conversion, UART, and even LCD driver circuits are integrated into a single chip to form a miniature computer. This chip can implement programming functions and control the terminal by writing a program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2d39cbf219a94c46d12deadc16e6b1\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's first look at how scarce the MCU is right now. The normal delivery time of only 8-10 weeks has now been significantly extended, with major international manufacturers including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>In all cases, delivery times have been significantly extended several times over.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc53edafefaa241dcc4e64cc3aa2d2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the price of MCUs is also skyrocketing. Taking STM32F103RCT6, STMicroelectronics' best-selling model, as an example, it was only 12.35 yuan/chip in 2019, 73.13 yuan/chip in December 2020, and reached 157.95 yuan/chip in May 2021, an increase of more than 10 times in two years.</p><p>Judging from the current delivery time and the magnitude of the price increase, it can be seen that MCUs are currently in a very short supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51543db28dce27f8c5038059c54b9acf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Downstream sectors with high prosperity</b></p><p>When we talk about the investment logic of IC design, foreign manufacturers mainly use the IDM model, while domestic manufacturers mainly use the Fabless model. For pure design companies like Fabless, a key point is to look at the prosperity of their downstream applications. Generally speaking, the higher the downstream prosperity, the higher the prosperity (i.e., demand) for chips will be. After that, let's look at the company's ability to obtain production capacity.</p><p>The application scenarios of MCUs can be divided into several analogies, such as the Internet of Things (communication + MCU integration), consumer electronics (IoT),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home and smart wearables), automotive electronics (gasoline vehicles and new energy vehicles), industrial control (industrial intelligence), etc. Among them, the best-performing sectors are small home appliances in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles in automobiles.</p><p>Next, we will start from<b>Let's look at these two directions to see which companies will benefit from the high prosperity of small home appliances and new energy vehicles.</b></p><p><b>1. Small household appliances</b></p><p>First, let's look at the main MCU companies in the small appliance sector:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300327\">Zhongying Electronics</a>300327.SZ, whose main business is MCU chip design, is mainly used in the small home appliance sector. At the same time, it is gradually expanding into other industrial and consumer scenarios, with the home appliance sector having the highest market share.</p><p>In China, the market share of small home appliance MCUs is about 20%, ranking among the top three; However, its market share in white goods is less than 10%. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the new demand brought about by the localization of the supply chain of downstream domestic white goods manufacturers such as Midea, as well as the increase in ASP brought about by the upgrade of the company's products from non-inverter to inverter air conditioners.</p><p>With the development trend of intelligent and high-end home appliances, the company's revenue in the field of small home appliance MCUs will continue to expand steadily in the future with the continuous increase in home appliance categories and the upgrading of home appliance MCUs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e557a603f461248f474e6f1c414531d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of insufficient industrial capacity supply, wafer manufacturing prices are rising. With chips in short supply, Zhongying is also appropriately passing on costs to downstream suppliers. Most products have raised prices since January 1, 2021, mainly reflecting the increase in the upstream supply chain. In the future, if production capacity is resolved, product prices may face some downward pressure every year.</p><p>Since last year, Zhongying has taken corresponding measures and made advance arrangements to actively secure production capacity in upstream supply chains such as wafer fabs and packaging and testing plants. For example, Zhongying mostly focuses on 8-inch wafers with mature processes, while a small number of chip manufacturing processes have shifted from 8-inch to 12-inch wafer foundries, bringing some new production capacity. However, the company's downstream demand is strong, and the new production capacity secured in the short term is still insufficient to absorb customer order demand. The company and its distributors have basically no inventory, and the shortage of MCUs will continue in the short term.</p><p>Overall, the logic behind Zhongying Electronics' simultaneous increase in both volume and price is quite clear.</p><p><b>2. New energy vehicles</b></p><p>The global and domestic automotive MCU markets are mainly dominated by NXP, Renesas, Infineon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">Microchip Technology</a>They occupy a total market share of approximately 85%. Due to the stringent quality standards of automotive-grade MCUs, the complex certification process, and high investment, it is difficult to generate profits in the short term. Furthermore, due to the late start of automotive MCUs in China, few companies are involved in this field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99a6b9194365f8290a34c6e25986286\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the main companies in China that have mass-produced MCUs include: Jiefa Technology, Shanghai Xinwang Microelectronics, Saiteng Microelectronics, and AMEC Semiconductor. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Companies such as ChipWon Microelectronics, Saiteng, and Jiefa Technology have already achieved pre-installed products, but they are still basically limited to relatively simple control applications such as car windows, lighting, and cooling systems, while their applications in complex fields such as power control, intelligent cockpits, and ADAS are relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb418fcf793a1eaee6932ee868f186a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688595\">Chipsea Technology</a>The MCU passed AEC-Q100 automotive-grade certification in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">GigaDevice</a>Automotive-grade MCU products entered the tape-out stage around mid-2021, and their NOR Flash has passed automotive-grade certification.</p><p>Let's focus on GigaDevice. The company's businesses, which are about to see both volume and price increases, include DRAM, Nor Flash, and MCU. Nor and MCU are both core main chips for IoT and automotive applications, which could reach a market potential of $20-30 billion.</p><p>Taking MCUs as an example, global MCU manufacturing processes are mainly concentrated in mature process ranges such as 180/130nm, 90nm and 40nm. Given the current tight MCU production capacity, GigaDevice has gained production capacity flexibility by quickly transitioning to the SiP packaging model. In addition, the company has raised prices multiple times since 2021, with an average ASP of 4 yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 5 yuan in 2021, continuing to benefit from the domestic substitution dividend brought about by this round of shortages and price increases.</p><p>In June of this year, GigaDevice also launched its own brand DRAM products. On the one hand, it received technological and production capacity support from Changxin, and its 19nm DDR4 and 17nm DDR3 have surpassed Huabang Electronics and Nanya Technology in niche market manufacturing processes. On the other hand, niche DRAM is essentially similar to NOR Flash and MCU, both of which have long-tail customer attributes. GigaDevice has the most complete niche market sales channels and more than 20,000 customers in the country, which can empower subsequent niche DRAM sales, and its market share is expected to increase rapidly.</p><p>The company's revenue share from MCUs and Nor Flash is constantly increasing, which proves the logic mentioned earlier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c449f10b84e86419c917162399c00b86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>GigaDevice has completed the synergy of its three product lines: DRAM, MCU, and Nor Flash. Given the current industry boom and the strengthening trend of domestic substitution, the market potential is enormous, and GigaDevice's growth attributes are highlighted in the next 2-3 years.</p><p>In addition, in the MCU field, downstream applications in fields such as the Internet of Things, smart wearable devices, and industrial control have also seen significant growth. Core token companies include Espressif Systems, Beijing Junzheng, and Chipsea Technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deeec58253bba54c9fdde500f9ee005\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the major trend of intelligent electronic products, the demand for MCUs in almost all electronic products will increase. In the past, large overseas manufacturers occupied the main market share. However, it often takes 1-2 years for these products to enter the downstream supply chain, and under normal circumstances, it is difficult for domestic manufacturers to enter the supply chain.</p><p>After years of accumulation, domestic manufacturers have gradually achieved product technical specifications that meet the needs of downstream customers. However, the recent pandemic combined with the surge in downstream demand has led to a shortage of goods for overseas suppliers. Domestic manufacturers can deliver products with shorter delivery times, and leading domestic MCU manufacturers are accelerating the introduction of various downstream end customers, thus accelerating domestic substitution.</p><p>We expect to achieve good performance in 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116935305","content_text":"下游景气程度越高，芯片需求也会随之越高。\n\n芯片短缺已经超过半年的时间了，从去年年底到现在，芯片紧缺的程度持续在加重，全球各大晶圆代工厂、IC设计公司（包括IDM）纷纷宣布涨价，今年Q2开启第二波涨价，紧接着在7月份又将迎来第三波的涨价。整个行业都在说缺芯，到底什么芯片最缺呢？\n我们在最近的报告里多次提到，从产业链的角度来看，中游的晶圆制造里包括设计、制造和封测，这里面在本轮半导体向上周期里最受益的是设计公司。由于下游景气度高企（尤其是新能源车和小家电），设计公司能很好的将制造环节价格的上涨传导到下游。并且由于设计公司掌握着客户，在市场供给紧缺的情况下，这类公司对下游应用端有更强的议价能力，这也是为什么设计公司在股价上表现更佳的核心原因之一。\n半导体的下游应用非常多，而我们今天关注的方向，就是当下最紧缺的MCU，（Micro controller Unit，微控制单元）。\n可以把MCU理解为是一个小型的CPU，也就是把正常CPU的频率、规格做一些缩减，然后将内存、计数器、USB、A/D转换、UART甚至包括LCD驱动电路等都整合在单一的芯片上，形成一个微型的计算机。这种芯片可以实现编程的功能，通过写入程序对终端进行控制。\n\n先看看MCU现在紧缺到什么程度。原本正常只需要8-10周的交期，现在大幅延长，国际大厂包括英飞凌、恩智浦、意法半导体等都出现交期大幅延长数倍的情况。\n\n与此同时，MCU的价格也在飞涨，以意法半导体的热销型号STM32F103RCT6为例，19年的时候仅为12.35元/片，20年12月为73.13元/片，21年5月达到了157.95元/片，两年超过10倍的涨幅。\n从产品现在的交期和价格上涨的幅度，可以看出目前MCU是处于非常紧缺的状态的。\n\n下游景气度高企的方向\n我们说IC设计的投资逻辑，国外厂商IDM模式为主，国内厂商Fabless模式为主，而对于Fabless这种纯设计的公司，很关键的一点是要看它下游应用的景气程度。一般来说，下游景气程度越高，芯片的景气度（也就是需求）也会随之越高。而在这之后，再去看公司能获得产能的情况。\nMCU的应用场景可以分为几个类比，如物联网（通信+MCU集成）、消费电子（IoT，智能家居与智能穿戴）、汽车电子（燃油车及新能源车）、工业控制（工业智能化）等。其中当前景气度最佳的是消费电子中的小家电和汽车里的新能源车。\n接下来我们就从这两个方向去看看哪些公司将受益于小家电和新能源车的高景气度。\n1、小家电\n首先来看小家电领域MCU的主要公司为中颖电子300327.SZ，主营业务是MCU芯片设计，下游应用的主要方向的小家电领域，同时也在逐步拓展至其他工业和消费场景，其中市占率最高的是家电领域。\n在国内小家电MCU的市场份额约为20%，处于前三的位置；但在白色家电的市占率不足10%，未来将持续受益于国内下游白色家电厂商如美的等供应链国产化带来的新增需求，以及公司产品由非变频向变频空调升级带来的ASP提高。\n在家电智能化、高端化的发展趋势下，未来随着家电品类的不断增多以及家电MCU的更新换代，公司在小家电MCU领域的营业额也将继续稳步扩大。\n\n在产业产能供应不足的大背景下，晶圆制造厂价格在上涨，在芯片紧缺的情况下，中颖也在适当向下游传导成本，大部分产品从2021年1月1日起提过价，调价主要反应上游供应链调涨幅度。未来如产能得到解决之后，产品价格可能会每年有些微向下调整的压力。\n中颖自去年起已采取因应措施，提前布局，积极应对晶圆厂、封装测试厂等上游供应链争取产能，如中颖大部分都是在成熟制程的8吋做晶圆代工，小部分芯片制程由8吋转至12吋做晶圆代工部分，带来一些新增的产能。但公司下游需求旺盛，短期争取的新增产能还是无法消化客户订单需求，公司和经销商基本没库存，短期内MCU紧缺的情况还将继续。\n整体来看，中颖电子量价齐升的逻辑还是比较清晰的。\n2、新能源汽车\n全球以及国内车载MCU市场主要由恩智浦、瑞萨、英飞凌、德州仪器、微芯科技占领，共占约85%市场份额。由于汽车级MCU产品品质严苛，认证过程很复杂，投入大，短期内难有盈利，并且由于国内车载MCU起步晚，较少公司涉及该领域业务。\n\n目前国内MCU已量产的公司主要有：杰发科技、上海芯旺微电子、赛腾微电子、中微半导体等公司。其中，比亚迪、芯旺微、赛腾、杰发科技等企业已经实现前装产品，但基本还停留在车窗、照明、冷却系统等相对简单的控制应用上，而在动力控制、智能座舱、ADAS复杂领域的应用较少。\n\n而芯海科技MCU于2020年通过AEC-Q100车规级认证，兆易创新车规级MCU产品2021年中左右进入流片环节，其NOR Flash已经通过车规级认证。\n我们来重点说说兆易创新。目前公司即将迎来量价齐升的业务包括DRAM、Nor Flash和MCU，Nor和MCU均为IoT和车用的核心主芯片可以触及到200-300亿美元的市场空间。\n以MCU为例，全球MCU制程主要集中在180/130nm、90nm和40nm等成熟制程范围，在当前MCU产能紧张情况下，兆易凭借SiP封装模式快速转厂获得产能弹性；另外，在公司自21年以来多次上调价格，20年平均ASP为4元，预计21年有望达到5元，持续受益于这一轮缺货涨价带来的国产替代红利。\n兆易在今年6月还推出自主品牌DRAM产品，一方面背靠长鑫获得技术和产能上支持，19nm DDR4和17nm DDR3在利基市场制程上已经超过华邦电和南亚科；另一方面，利基DRAM本质上与NOR Flash和MCU类似，均具有长尾客户属性，兆易拥有全国最完善的利基市场销售渠道和2万+客户，可以为后续利基DRAM销售赋能，预计市占率将快速提升。\n公司MCU和Nor Flash的营收占比在不断提升，也证明到了前面说的逻辑。\n\n兆易创新布局目前完成DRAM、MCU和Nor Flash三条产品线协同，在当前行业景气度和国产替代趋势加强的情况下，市场空间极大，兆易未来2-3年成长属性凸显。\n除此之外，在MCU领域，下游在物联网、智能可穿戴设备、工业控制等领域的应用也有非常明显的增长核心的代币公司包括乐鑫科技、北京君正、芯海科技等。\n\n在电子产品智能化的大趋势下，几乎所有电子产品对MCU的需求都会加强，以往都是海外大厂占据了主要的市场份额。但由于这些产品进入下游供应链往往需要1-2年的时间，而且正常情况下国内厂商很难切入供应链。\n国内的厂商经过多年的积累，产品技术指标已经逐步满足下游客户的需求，此次疫情+下游需求爆发，导致海外供应商缺货。而国内厂商能以更短的交期交付产品，国内MCU头部厂商正在加速导入下游各类的终端客户，加速了国产替代。\n预计2021年都将取得不错的业绩表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}