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mengseng
mengseng
·
2021-08-20
?????
TuSimple Future surged over 15%, reportedly receiving another increase in holdings from the "Queen of the Bull Market".
周四,图森未来低开高走,股价一路抬升,截至发稿涨幅扩大至15%。 市场消息,“牛市女皇”、ARK基金的创始人凯西·伍德(Catherine Wood)在周三增持图森未来约22.1万股,当日该股收涨2
TuSimple Future surged over 15%, reportedly receiving another increase in holdings from the "Queen of the Bull Market".
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mengseng
mengseng
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2021-08-13
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mengseng
mengseng
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2021-08-10
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TSMC's 3nm chips officially entered mass production a year ahead of schedule, with Intel beating Apple to become the first company to adopt them.
此次英特尔向台积电下的订单包含带有集成显卡的三种服务器CPU,均为该公司的核心产品,首批数量约为4000片,明年7月正式量产。 据中国台湾经济日报,英特尔将成为第一家采用台积电3nm芯片制程的半导体
TSMC's 3nm chips officially entered mass production a year ahead of schedule, with Intel beating Apple to become the first company to adopt them.
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mengseng
mengseng
·
2021-08-08
???
CICC Overseas: What if US Treasury yields rises again?
摘要 周五公布的7月非农(94.3万)超出预期和前值,呈现出局部受变异病毒复发影响放缓甚至停滞、但整体依然持续改善的态势。在此基础上,我们更新了对于就业市场何时达到美联储门槛的测算,发现大概还需要5个
CICC Overseas: What if US Treasury yields rises again?
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mengseng
mengseng
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2021-08-05
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mengseng
mengseng
·
2021-08-04
???
Foreign Media Headlines: Household Debt in the Second Quarter of the United States Increased by the Largest Increase in 2013
在抵押贷款热潮推动下,第二季度美国家庭债务创下2013年以来最快增速。低借贷成本以及对更宽敞居家办公空间的渴望催生了房贷需求。 纽约联储周二公布报告显示 ,截至6月底,家庭负债增长3130亿美元,至14.96万亿美元,较三个月前增长2.1%。 总体而言,家庭债务占经济的比重仍远低于2008年金融危机前几年创下的高点。而且一些借款余额仍低于疫情爆发前水平。
Foreign Media Headlines: Household Debt in the Second Quarter of the United States Increased by the Largest Increase in 2013
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mengseng
mengseng
·
2021-07-31
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AMD shares rose over 3% to a record high, prompting several major banks to raise their target prices after its earnings report.
7月30日,AMD涨超3%,现报106.2美元,股价再创历史新高,近3个交易日累计涨幅已超16%,绩后获多家大行上调目标价。 AMD二季度营收达38.5亿美元,同比增长99%;净利润达7.1亿美元,
AMD shares rose over 3% to a record high, prompting several major banks to raise their target prices after its earnings report.
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mengseng
mengseng
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2021-07-28
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mengseng
mengseng
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2021-07-28
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Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?
谁都不希望坏事发生,但如果发生,也不至于措手不及。
Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?
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mengseng
mengseng
·
2021-07-26
???
[Change] Intel fell more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023
7月23日,英特尔跌超5%,CEO 称芯片短缺将持续至2023年。 业界越来越多的人认为,芯片供应中断不会很快得到解决,Gelsinger的预测为这种观点增添了业内领先人物的声音。 在周四的采访中,他
[Change] Intel fell more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023
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million in the second quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 463.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57%. The net loss was $117 million, an increase of 316.6% year-on-year; Operating losses were $121 million, an increase of 331.8% year-on-year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TuSimple Future surged over 15%, reportedly receiving another increase in holdings from the \"Queen of the Bull Market\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTuSimple Future surged over 15%, reportedly receiving another increase in holdings from the \"Queen of the Bull Market\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-20 00:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSP\">Tucson Future</a>open low continued its upward trend, with its stock price rising steadily, expanding to 15% as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1212649a8e8e4b1eda6464876147076\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to market news, Catherine Wood, the \"Queen of the Bull Market\" and founder of ARK Fund, increased her holdings in TuSimple by approximately 221,000 shares on Wednesday, and the stock closed up 2.65% that day.</p><p>In terms of performance, TuSimple achieved revenue of US$1.482 million in the second quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 463.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57%. The net loss was $117 million, an increase of 316.6% year-on-year; Operating losses were $121 million, an increase of 331.8% year-on-year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b9accdc5716a7368b1240a904c5b874","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177892933","content_text":"周四,图森未来低开高走,股价一路抬升,截至发稿涨幅扩大至15%。\n\n市场消息,“牛市女皇”、ARK基金的创始人凯西·伍德(Catherine Wood)在周三增持图森未来约22.1万股,当日该股收涨2.65%。\n业绩方面,2021年第二季度图森未来实现营收148.2万美元,同比增长463.5%,环比上一季度增长57%;净亏损为1.17亿美元,同比扩大316.6%;运营亏损1.21亿美元,同比扩大331.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894109547,"gmtCreate":1628809820889,"gmtModify":1676529859143,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894109547","repostId":"1160603020","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896349714,"gmtCreate":1628558503538,"gmtModify":1703508054394,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896349714","repostId":"1167003752","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167003752","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1628558299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167003752?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 09:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TSMC's 3nm chips officially entered mass production a year ahead of schedule, with Intel beating Apple to become the first company to adopt them.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167003752","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"此次英特尔向台积电下的订单包含带有集成显卡的三种服务器CPU,均为该公司的核心产品,首批数量约为4000片,明年7月正式量产。\n\n据中国台湾经济日报,英特尔将成为第一家采用台积电3nm芯片制程的半导体","content":"<p>This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>towards<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The order includes three types of server CPUs with integrated graphics cards, all of which are the company's core products. The first batch is about 4,000 chips, and mass production will officially begin next July. According to the Taiwan Economic Daily, Intel will become the first semiconductor company to adopt TSMC's 3nm chip manufacturing process. The process will be used to produce server chips. Chip casting is expected to begin in the second quarter of next year at TSMC's Factory 18b, and mass production will officially begin in July. The actual mass production time is a year ahead of schedule.</p><p>For a long time, TSMC's most advanced chip manufacturing processes have typically been...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>As the first customer, it mainly produced the A-series processors for the latest iPhone of that year.</p><p>This collaboration between Intel and TSMC signifies that the company affirms TSMC's lead over...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Its advantageous position. According to TSMC's previous statement, 3nm processability can be improved by 10-15% compared to 5nm, and power consumption can be reduced by 25-30%.</p><p>According to a TSMC supplier cited by Taiwan's Economic Daily, Intel's order from TSMC includes three types of server CPUs with integrated graphics cards, all of which are the company's core products, with an initial quantity of approximately 4,000 chips.</p><p>Recently, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin, in response to a shareholder's question about Intel's involvement in wafer foundry, emphasized that \"Intel is a customer of TSMC, and we believe Intel will adopt TSMC's most advanced technology.\" The implication seems to be that Intel's collaboration with TSMC on 3-nanometer chip production has already been decided.</p><p>As of yesterday's US stock market close, Intel's stock price was $54.05, up 0.24%. TSMC shares closed at $118.22, up 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc745ca5f258c25e7fb72f90285fa61e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc30fe83cc22ec1d2c8172e669f59a1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC's 3nm chips officially entered mass production a year ahead of schedule, with Intel beating Apple to become the first company to adopt them.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC's 3nm chips officially entered mass production a year ahead of schedule, with Intel beating Apple to become the first company to adopt them.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 09:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>towards<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The order includes three types of server CPUs with integrated graphics cards, all of which are the company's core products. The first batch is about 4,000 chips, and mass production will officially begin next July. According to the Taiwan Economic Daily, Intel will become the first semiconductor company to adopt TSMC's 3nm chip manufacturing process. The process will be used to produce server chips. Chip casting is expected to begin in the second quarter of next year at TSMC's Factory 18b, and mass production will officially begin in July. The actual mass production time is a year ahead of schedule.</p><p>For a long time, TSMC's most advanced chip manufacturing processes have typically been...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>As the first customer, it mainly produced the A-series processors for the latest iPhone of that year.</p><p>This collaboration between Intel and TSMC signifies that the company affirms TSMC's lead over...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Its advantageous position. According to TSMC's previous statement, 3nm processability can be improved by 10-15% compared to 5nm, and power consumption can be reduced by 25-30%.</p><p>According to a TSMC supplier cited by Taiwan's Economic Daily, Intel's order from TSMC includes three types of server CPUs with integrated graphics cards, all of which are the company's core products, with an initial quantity of approximately 4,000 chips.</p><p>Recently, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin, in response to a shareholder's question about Intel's involvement in wafer foundry, emphasized that \"Intel is a customer of TSMC, and we believe Intel will adopt TSMC's most advanced technology.\" The implication seems to be that Intel's collaboration with TSMC on 3-nanometer chip production has already been decided.</p><p>As of yesterday's US stock market close, Intel's stock price was $54.05, up 0.24%. TSMC shares closed at $118.22, up 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc745ca5f258c25e7fb72f90285fa61e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc30fe83cc22ec1d2c8172e669f59a1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","INTC":"英特尔","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167003752","content_text":"此次英特尔向台积电下的订单包含带有集成显卡的三种服务器CPU,均为该公司的核心产品,首批数量约为4000片,明年7月正式量产。\n\n据中国台湾经济日报,英特尔将成为第一家采用台积电3nm芯片制程的半导体公司。该制程将用于生产服务器芯片,预计明年二季度开始在台积电18b厂投片,7月份正式量产,实际量产时间较原计划提前一年。\n长期以来,台积电最先进的芯片制程通常以苹果作为第一个客户,主要生产当年最新款iPhone的A系列处理器。\n英特尔与台积电的本次合作,意味着该公司肯定台积电领先于三星的优势地位。按照台积电此前的说法,3nm工艺性较5nm能提升10~15%,功耗降低25~30%。\n中国台湾经济日报援引台积电供应商称,此次英特尔向台积电下的订单包含带有集成显卡的三种服务器CPU,均为该公司的核心产品,首批数量约为4000片。\n近日,台积电董事长刘德音答股东问“如何看待英特尔涉足晶圆代工时强调“英特尔是台积电的客户,我们相信英特尔会采用台积电的最先进技术”。言下之意似乎对英特尔与其合作3纳米芯片生产早有定论。\n截至昨日美股收盘,英特尔股价报54.05美元,涨0.24%;台积电股价报118.22美元,涨0.01%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"03145":0.9,"TWmain":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891466099,"gmtCreate":1628413014211,"gmtModify":1703506035456,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891466099","repostId":"1183188196","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183188196","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点:美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1628405337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183188196?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-08 14:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: What if US Treasury yields rises again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183188196","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n周五公布的7月非农(94.3万)超出预期和前值,呈现出局部受变异病毒复发影响放缓甚至停滞、但整体依然持续改善的态势。在此基础上,我们更新了对于就业市场何时达到美联储门槛的测算,发现大概还需要5个","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>The July non-farm payrolls data (943,000), released on Friday, exceeded expectations and the previous value, showing a trend of slowing or even stagnating in some areas due to the recurrence of variant viruses, but still continuing to improve overall. Based on this, we updated our calculations for when the job market will reach the Federal Reserve's threshold, finding that it will take about 5 more months to reach a threshold similar to the 64% threshold when employment was officially reduced in 2013. Therefore,<b>The FOMC officially reduced volume in December.</b>、<b>The September revision statement suggests that it still appears to be a highly probable event.</b>。</p><p>Apart from that, the non-farm payroll data itself may not be particularly noteworthy.<b>However, the data, which did not far exceed expectations, drove US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index up significantly.</b>The underlying reasons are worth investigating, as they may indicate that the previously continuously low interest rates and the suppressed short-selling rebound only needed a trigger.</p><p><b>We believe that the direction of interest rates over the past period is not incomprehensible, but the magnitude of the decline is even more surprising.</b>。 Against this backdrop, it is necessary to pay attention to and even guard against the possibility that interest rates, which have been continuously suppressed like springs for whatever reason, may rebound under the influence of some catalysts.</p><p><b>What could potentially become a catalyst for rising interest rates?</b></p><p><b>1) Restoration of growth expectations</b>If key growth data improves or the mutated virus epidemic subsides. The progress of Biden's new round of infrastructure development, which is currently underway, is also worth noting.</p><p><b>2)</b><b>Expectations of policy withdrawal are rising</b>For example, the FOMC hinted at tapering in September or the Jackson Hole meeting in August began to blow. Since interest rate changes reflect expectations in advance, it is more important to start hinting at a reduction than to formally implement it. In addition, the Ministry of Finance can issue bonds again after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, and the increase in Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</p><p><b>What is the impact of rising interest rates again?</b></p><p><b>1)</b><b>speed</b>Rapidly rising interest rates mean increased volatility in bond assets, which will lead to cross-asset volatility contagion, thereby affecting the US stock market and other markets, especially...<b>Relatively high valuation sectors</b>It causes significant disturbances;<b>2)</b><b>Direction and structure</b>Rising long-term interest rates, especially widening interest rate spreads, are beneficial.<b>Finance</b>Sector performance;<b>3)</b><b>driving factors</b>Rising real interest rates are detrimental to interest rate-sensitive assets, such as...<b>gold</b>At the same time, it may also push up<b>dollar</b>。 In terms of style,<b>Value</b>It is also relatively better than<b>grow up</b>However, high-quality growth with reasonable valuations remains attractive.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Possible triggers for another rise in interest rates and their impact</b></p><p><b>1. Non-farm payroll data and its impact on monetary policy? Year-end reduction, hinted at in September, is still highly probable.</b></p><p>The July non-farm payrolls data (943,000) released on Friday exceeded expectations (870,000) and the previous value (938,000), showing that local areas (such as retail, leisure hotels and other service industries) have slowed down or even stagnated due to the recurrence of the mutated virus, but overall employment continues to improve (Charts 1-2). Based on this, we updated our calculations of when the job market will reach the Federal Reserve's threshold (the so-called further substantial progress), and found that it will take about 5 more months to reach a level similar to the 64% employment recovery during the formal reduction in 2013 (Chart 3). Therefore,<b>The FOMC's official reduction in quantitative easing in December and its revised statement in September suggest that this remains a highly probable event.</b>(Figure 4).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de929b3cb3fb6228e5e6c15e33c40852\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca7a453adbea56310974439653b4fab\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50420cdf87bd41d7eca9eb86992c448\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Aside from the characteristics mentioned above, the non-farm payroll data itself may not have been particularly noteworthy, but the data, which did not exceed expectations, drove US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index up significantly (Chart 5). The reasons behind this are worth investigating.<b>This may explain the previously low interest rates and the suppressed short-selling rebound.</b>(Chart 6)<b>All it takes is a primer.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf8a204aa021f702ba2aea0f056cdf6\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the reasons for and implications for the recent decline in interest rates? The direction is understandable, but the level doesn't match.</b></p><p>The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been declining since mid-May, once falling to a low of 1.17%, with a maximum drop of more than 50 basis points from its peak. First, it was dominated by a decline in inflation expectations (\"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-7), then a decline in inflation trading\"). After the FOMC meeting in June, real interest rates took over and hit a record low (\"Why did the US dollar rise and long-term bonds fall recently? June 14-20, 2021\"). During this period, the Federal Reserve's dot plot and technical adjustments to Interest Rate Corridor triggered \"selling short and buying long\" (\"What is the US Treasury yields Downturn Trading? July 5-11, 2021\"), short covering, China's unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut triggered growth concerns, and a surge in reverse repos actually increased demand for Treasury Bond (\"How to Understand the Fed's Reverse Repo Surge and Interest Rate Corridor Mechanism? June 28-4, 2021\", \"The Fed Has De Facto 'shrinking balance sheet'? July 19-25, 2021\"), as well as the recent resurgence of the Delta variant virus (\"How Severe is the Variant Outbreak That Caused the Market Plunge?\"). While there may be coincidences, they gave bulls a reason to remain bullish on bonds, leading to a three-month, unexpectedly large decline in interest rates (Charts 9-10).</p><p><b>We believe that the direction of interest rates over the past period is not incomprehensible.</b>After all, we had previously indicated during the rapid rise in interest rates that interest rate increases were intermittent and required new catalysts; Meanwhile, it is relatively certain that long-term inflation expectations will gradually decline, and the disruption of short-term growth momentum caused by the resurgence of mutated viruses cannot be completely ignored.<b>In contrast, the magnitude of its decline is even more unexpected and puzzling.</b>In particular, the record low in real interest rates is more driven by expectations of an economic recession than by the current slowdown in growth momentum.<b>。</b></p><p>Against this backdrop,<b>We believe we need to pay attention to, and even guard against, the possibility of interest rates, which have been continuously suppressed like springs for whatever reason, rebounding under some catalysts.</b>The performance of long-term interest rates after Friday's non-farm payroll data may be a case in point.</p><p><b>3. What could potentially be a catalyst for rising interest rates? The pandemic, the FOMC, infrastructure programs, and the debt ceiling</b></p><p>Admittedly, short-term interest rate trends are often influenced by trading factors and cannot be fully explained by fundamentals. However, some inflection points still follow patterns, especially some key event catalysts. Considering the forces that led to the decline in interest rates in the past, we believe the following events or timing points are worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>► Growth expectations are recovering: If key growth data improves or the mutated virus epidemic peaks and declines.</b></p><p>In our \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-8): A Short-Term Stagflation-Like Trading,\" we analyzed that we believe the market may have overestimated the impact of the mutated virus and the pressure of declining growth, which has led to recent new low interest rates. Although the market is concerned that real interest rates may not return to previous levels due to the still unstable long-term growth outlook, such a low level is clearly inconsistent.<b>Moreover, this resurgence of variant viruses may not be as severe as it appears on the surface for countries that have already achieved large-scale vaccination.</b>。 Mass vaccination ensures that hospitalizations and deaths remain low while new confirmed cases continue to rise, thus eliminating the need for strict policy lockdowns to avoid a run on medical resources (Chart 11). This epidemic prevention path seems to have gradually taken effect in the UK (\"Lessons from the UK's Phase-by-Phase Achievements in the Fight Against the Epidemic: Weekly Tracking of the Resumption of Work (July 31)\"), and may then become a model for the future epidemic prevention path of other similar countries, such as the United States (Charts 12-13). If that's the case, the recent market concerns, particularly those reflected in real interest rates, may be excessive.<b>The future decline from the peak of the pandemic could become a turning point for interest rates to rise.</b>。 Of course, some key data, such as Friday's better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, can also help allay growth concerns.</p><p>In addition,<b>The progress of Biden's new round of infrastructure development, which is currently underway, is also worth noting.</b>A crucial vote will be held in the Senate next week. Although the scale is significantly smaller than previously expected (Chart 29), the changes in expectations that may result from achieving breakthroughs are still worth noting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa4d382044f3e8091819910e06a8978\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fcb63bcf80933f46eb1bf53cfa78c8c\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Expectations of policy exit are rising: for example, the FOMC hinted at tapering in September, or the Jackson Hole meeting in August began to blow.</b></p><p><b>Since interest rate changes reflect expectations in advance, it is more important to start hinting at a reduction than to formally implement it.</b>This was the case before the official reduction in volume in 2013. At the FOMC meeting in October that year, the Federal Reserve maintained its September statement and established that volume reduction was imminent. After that, interest rates bottomed out and rebounded, until they peaked after the official reduction began in December. During this period, real interest rates were the main driver (Chart 17). Given that real interest rates are currently at historically low levels, and long-term inflation expectations are expected to decline as policy tightening is anticipated and the supply-demand imbalance eases marginally (such as the repair of used car production capacity and inventory, Charts 14-15), real interest rates are still likely to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96521f1df2184a69d1284a5913ba39ab\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6eb34dcb6f4964753daf3320fd0df3\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd2633cef77af2bb7189a51246cd314\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition,<b>Once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, the Ministry of Finance can issue bonds again, and rising Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</b>。 In the early stages, the Treasury Department's TGA account released a large amount of liquidity and returned it to the Federal Reserve's account through reverse repos. While \"locking in\" some liquidity, it also substantially increased demand for Treasury Bond. Looking ahead, once the debt ceiling is resolved (the Treasury’s emergency measures can continue until the end of September) (Chart 19), the Treasury can issue bonds again and is expected to replenish some of its TGA cash reserves (Chart 20), while increased Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaeb4ca9f250bc987b71070d1466d870\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What is the impact of rising interest rates again? Speed, structure, and drive</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis, catalyzed by some future growth and liquidity events or policies,<b>Long-term interest rates, especially real interest rates, cannot be ruled out to rise again. The signals from the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting regarding tapering deserve close attention, but a gradual peak cannot be ruled out once tapering officially begins.</b>(Figure 21).</p><p>So, what impact will it have if interest rates rise again? We believe this is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><b>1) Speed,</b>A rapid rise in interest rates means increased volatility in bond assets, which will lead to cross-asset volatility and contagion, thereby causing significant disruption to US stocks and other markets, especially relatively overvalued sectors (Chart 22).</p><p><b>2) Direction and structure:</b>Rising long-term interest rates, especially widening interest rate spreads, are beneficial to the performance of the financial sector (Charts 23-24), as was the case after Friday's non-farm payroll data.</p><p><b>3) Driving factors:</b>Rising real interest rates are detrimental to interest rates, especially interest rate-sensitive assets, such as...<b>gold</b>(Chart 25), which may also push up...<b>dollar</b>(Figure 26). In addition, in terms of style performance, value is relatively better than growth (Chart 27). However, it should be noted that since we are no longer in the phase of accelerated increases and liquidity introduction is gradually approaching, and although we expect interest rates to rise again, it may also be the last wave,<b>Therefore, high-quality growth with reasonable valuations remains attractive.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c183194b4ae3baec72aa317f1d9adbf6\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be2ba7872bac80f04056c66510b1587\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e9f3df9445122220011f3aee999981\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f076f1627a7036f0f36d5a4ad308acf1\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data drove a surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, with banks leading the gains; Emerging bulls have decreased, and US Treasury bulls have plummeted.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Leading. Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; US Treasury yields rebounds, banks lead gains</b></p><p>July's non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations. Although the recurring pandemic has dragged down the recovery of some service industries, the overall job market remains strong, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields factors rising sharply, and banks leading the gains. Overall, among major global assets, stocks > bonds > commodities, with natural gas, Bitcoin, Indian and South Korean stock markets leading the gains, while crude oil, VIX bulls, copper and gold led the declines. Looking at different sectors, the financial sector, including banking, integrated finance, and insurance, led the gains last week. The 10-year US Treasury yields closed at 1.30%, up about 7 basis points, real interest rates rose 11 basis points, and inflation expectations fell 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b3202772105670fdedf25ab5c8ac22\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5793ee0f835fc4399a6147905be212\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df48633b96eef4a3abe734c7ea22f16c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Emerging market long positions plummet, while long-term US Treasury long positions decrease.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks continued to decline compared to the previous week. In terms of positions, net long positions in US stocks increased slightly, while net long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase; Net long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have decreased significantly, while net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have turned into net long positions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a118885ec9541cd261cae8154362a7\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8307269123bdf4233f4abd11fbcd767f\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061f59624c4e22c051463b05dcf577d3\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c5b8402a85ace1675a182495a2a6ef\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Emerging Markets Shift to Outflow</b></p><p>Over the past week, inflows into the bond market have slowed slightly, inflows into the stock market have slowed significantly, and money market funds have continued to flow in. Looking at different markets, US stock inflows slowed significantly, European and Japanese stocks continued to flow in but also slowed down, and emerging markets turned to outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18276a69b2614b955d4a258055c1724a\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: July non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, ISM manufacturing PMI declined.</b></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI declined in July, with prices and customer inventories falling significantly.</b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5 in July from 60.6 in June, lower than the expected 61.0. Looking at the individual items, the price index fell the most since March 2020, which to some extent indicates that inflationary pressures have eased. The employment index and orders on hand index rose, while the customer inventory index hit a record low.</p><p>In addition,<b>July's non-farm payrolls remained strong, with leisure hotels remaining the main source of data.</b>。 Non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, higher than the revised previous figure (938,000) and the expected figure (870,000). By category, leisure hotels remain the main source of new employment, with 380,000 new jobs added in July. Education and health, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and information technology improved the most compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate also fell to 5.4% in July from 5.9% the previous month, lower than the expected 5.7%. Meanwhile, wage growth in July remained at the same level as in June, reaching 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7c8e39876fbe05cefc701f4fe09d69\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e6eb406a515a108821959e2ea4ccb2\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce204e743bdd4bbac9e90b8c6e3a91d9\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► US stock valuations are above the support level of the growth and interest rate environment.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields rising and the ISM manufacturing PMI falling, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.1 is higher than the reasonable level (~26.8 times) supported by growth (July PMI = 59.5) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.30%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f99f376902d96742c5fab1597b79804\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: What if US Treasury yields rises again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: What if US Treasury yields rises again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-08 14:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>The July non-farm payrolls data (943,000), released on Friday, exceeded expectations and the previous value, showing a trend of slowing or even stagnating in some areas due to the recurrence of variant viruses, but still continuing to improve overall. Based on this, we updated our calculations for when the job market will reach the Federal Reserve's threshold, finding that it will take about 5 more months to reach a threshold similar to the 64% threshold when employment was officially reduced in 2013. Therefore,<b>The FOMC officially reduced volume in December.</b>、<b>The September revision statement suggests that it still appears to be a highly probable event.</b>。</p><p>Apart from that, the non-farm payroll data itself may not be particularly noteworthy.<b>However, the data, which did not far exceed expectations, drove US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index up significantly.</b>The underlying reasons are worth investigating, as they may indicate that the previously continuously low interest rates and the suppressed short-selling rebound only needed a trigger.</p><p><b>We believe that the direction of interest rates over the past period is not incomprehensible, but the magnitude of the decline is even more surprising.</b>。 Against this backdrop, it is necessary to pay attention to and even guard against the possibility that interest rates, which have been continuously suppressed like springs for whatever reason, may rebound under the influence of some catalysts.</p><p><b>What could potentially become a catalyst for rising interest rates?</b></p><p><b>1) Restoration of growth expectations</b>If key growth data improves or the mutated virus epidemic subsides. The progress of Biden's new round of infrastructure development, which is currently underway, is also worth noting.</p><p><b>2)</b><b>Expectations of policy withdrawal are rising</b>For example, the FOMC hinted at tapering in September or the Jackson Hole meeting in August began to blow. Since interest rate changes reflect expectations in advance, it is more important to start hinting at a reduction than to formally implement it. In addition, the Ministry of Finance can issue bonds again after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, and the increase in Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</p><p><b>What is the impact of rising interest rates again?</b></p><p><b>1)</b><b>speed</b>Rapidly rising interest rates mean increased volatility in bond assets, which will lead to cross-asset volatility contagion, thereby affecting the US stock market and other markets, especially...<b>Relatively high valuation sectors</b>It causes significant disturbances;<b>2)</b><b>Direction and structure</b>Rising long-term interest rates, especially widening interest rate spreads, are beneficial.<b>Finance</b>Sector performance;<b>3)</b><b>driving factors</b>Rising real interest rates are detrimental to interest rate-sensitive assets, such as...<b>gold</b>At the same time, it may also push up<b>dollar</b>。 In terms of style,<b>Value</b>It is also relatively better than<b>grow up</b>However, high-quality growth with reasonable valuations remains attractive.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Possible triggers for another rise in interest rates and their impact</b></p><p><b>1. Non-farm payroll data and its impact on monetary policy? Year-end reduction, hinted at in September, is still highly probable.</b></p><p>The July non-farm payrolls data (943,000) released on Friday exceeded expectations (870,000) and the previous value (938,000), showing that local areas (such as retail, leisure hotels and other service industries) have slowed down or even stagnated due to the recurrence of the mutated virus, but overall employment continues to improve (Charts 1-2). Based on this, we updated our calculations of when the job market will reach the Federal Reserve's threshold (the so-called further substantial progress), and found that it will take about 5 more months to reach a level similar to the 64% employment recovery during the formal reduction in 2013 (Chart 3). Therefore,<b>The FOMC's official reduction in quantitative easing in December and its revised statement in September suggest that this remains a highly probable event.</b>(Figure 4).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de929b3cb3fb6228e5e6c15e33c40852\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca7a453adbea56310974439653b4fab\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50420cdf87bd41d7eca9eb86992c448\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Aside from the characteristics mentioned above, the non-farm payroll data itself may not have been particularly noteworthy, but the data, which did not exceed expectations, drove US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index up significantly (Chart 5). The reasons behind this are worth investigating.<b>This may explain the previously low interest rates and the suppressed short-selling rebound.</b>(Chart 6)<b>All it takes is a primer.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf8a204aa021f702ba2aea0f056cdf6\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the reasons for and implications for the recent decline in interest rates? The direction is understandable, but the level doesn't match.</b></p><p>The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been declining since mid-May, once falling to a low of 1.17%, with a maximum drop of more than 50 basis points from its peak. First, it was dominated by a decline in inflation expectations (\"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-7), then a decline in inflation trading\"). After the FOMC meeting in June, real interest rates took over and hit a record low (\"Why did the US dollar rise and long-term bonds fall recently? June 14-20, 2021\"). During this period, the Federal Reserve's dot plot and technical adjustments to Interest Rate Corridor triggered \"selling short and buying long\" (\"What is the US Treasury yields Downturn Trading? July 5-11, 2021\"), short covering, China's unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut triggered growth concerns, and a surge in reverse repos actually increased demand for Treasury Bond (\"How to Understand the Fed's Reverse Repo Surge and Interest Rate Corridor Mechanism? June 28-4, 2021\", \"The Fed Has De Facto 'shrinking balance sheet'? July 19-25, 2021\"), as well as the recent resurgence of the Delta variant virus (\"How Severe is the Variant Outbreak That Caused the Market Plunge?\"). While there may be coincidences, they gave bulls a reason to remain bullish on bonds, leading to a three-month, unexpectedly large decline in interest rates (Charts 9-10).</p><p><b>We believe that the direction of interest rates over the past period is not incomprehensible.</b>After all, we had previously indicated during the rapid rise in interest rates that interest rate increases were intermittent and required new catalysts; Meanwhile, it is relatively certain that long-term inflation expectations will gradually decline, and the disruption of short-term growth momentum caused by the resurgence of mutated viruses cannot be completely ignored.<b>In contrast, the magnitude of its decline is even more unexpected and puzzling.</b>In particular, the record low in real interest rates is more driven by expectations of an economic recession than by the current slowdown in growth momentum.<b>。</b></p><p>Against this backdrop,<b>We believe we need to pay attention to, and even guard against, the possibility of interest rates, which have been continuously suppressed like springs for whatever reason, rebounding under some catalysts.</b>The performance of long-term interest rates after Friday's non-farm payroll data may be a case in point.</p><p><b>3. What could potentially be a catalyst for rising interest rates? The pandemic, the FOMC, infrastructure programs, and the debt ceiling</b></p><p>Admittedly, short-term interest rate trends are often influenced by trading factors and cannot be fully explained by fundamentals. However, some inflection points still follow patterns, especially some key event catalysts. Considering the forces that led to the decline in interest rates in the past, we believe the following events or timing points are worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>► Growth expectations are recovering: If key growth data improves or the mutated virus epidemic peaks and declines.</b></p><p>In our \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-8): A Short-Term Stagflation-Like Trading,\" we analyzed that we believe the market may have overestimated the impact of the mutated virus and the pressure of declining growth, which has led to recent new low interest rates. Although the market is concerned that real interest rates may not return to previous levels due to the still unstable long-term growth outlook, such a low level is clearly inconsistent.<b>Moreover, this resurgence of variant viruses may not be as severe as it appears on the surface for countries that have already achieved large-scale vaccination.</b>。 Mass vaccination ensures that hospitalizations and deaths remain low while new confirmed cases continue to rise, thus eliminating the need for strict policy lockdowns to avoid a run on medical resources (Chart 11). This epidemic prevention path seems to have gradually taken effect in the UK (\"Lessons from the UK's Phase-by-Phase Achievements in the Fight Against the Epidemic: Weekly Tracking of the Resumption of Work (July 31)\"), and may then become a model for the future epidemic prevention path of other similar countries, such as the United States (Charts 12-13). If that's the case, the recent market concerns, particularly those reflected in real interest rates, may be excessive.<b>The future decline from the peak of the pandemic could become a turning point for interest rates to rise.</b>。 Of course, some key data, such as Friday's better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, can also help allay growth concerns.</p><p>In addition,<b>The progress of Biden's new round of infrastructure development, which is currently underway, is also worth noting.</b>A crucial vote will be held in the Senate next week. Although the scale is significantly smaller than previously expected (Chart 29), the changes in expectations that may result from achieving breakthroughs are still worth noting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa4d382044f3e8091819910e06a8978\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fcb63bcf80933f46eb1bf53cfa78c8c\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Expectations of policy exit are rising: for example, the FOMC hinted at tapering in September, or the Jackson Hole meeting in August began to blow.</b></p><p><b>Since interest rate changes reflect expectations in advance, it is more important to start hinting at a reduction than to formally implement it.</b>This was the case before the official reduction in volume in 2013. At the FOMC meeting in October that year, the Federal Reserve maintained its September statement and established that volume reduction was imminent. After that, interest rates bottomed out and rebounded, until they peaked after the official reduction began in December. During this period, real interest rates were the main driver (Chart 17). Given that real interest rates are currently at historically low levels, and long-term inflation expectations are expected to decline as policy tightening is anticipated and the supply-demand imbalance eases marginally (such as the repair of used car production capacity and inventory, Charts 14-15), real interest rates are still likely to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96521f1df2184a69d1284a5913ba39ab\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6eb34dcb6f4964753daf3320fd0df3\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd2633cef77af2bb7189a51246cd314\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition,<b>Once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, the Ministry of Finance can issue bonds again, and rising Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</b>。 In the early stages, the Treasury Department's TGA account released a large amount of liquidity and returned it to the Federal Reserve's account through reverse repos. While \"locking in\" some liquidity, it also substantially increased demand for Treasury Bond. Looking ahead, once the debt ceiling is resolved (the Treasury’s emergency measures can continue until the end of September) (Chart 19), the Treasury can issue bonds again and is expected to replenish some of its TGA cash reserves (Chart 20), while increased Treasury Bond supply may also increase upward pressure on interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaeb4ca9f250bc987b71070d1466d870\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What is the impact of rising interest rates again? Speed, structure, and drive</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis, catalyzed by some future growth and liquidity events or policies,<b>Long-term interest rates, especially real interest rates, cannot be ruled out to rise again. The signals from the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting regarding tapering deserve close attention, but a gradual peak cannot be ruled out once tapering officially begins.</b>(Figure 21).</p><p>So, what impact will it have if interest rates rise again? We believe this is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><b>1) Speed,</b>A rapid rise in interest rates means increased volatility in bond assets, which will lead to cross-asset volatility and contagion, thereby causing significant disruption to US stocks and other markets, especially relatively overvalued sectors (Chart 22).</p><p><b>2) Direction and structure:</b>Rising long-term interest rates, especially widening interest rate spreads, are beneficial to the performance of the financial sector (Charts 23-24), as was the case after Friday's non-farm payroll data.</p><p><b>3) Driving factors:</b>Rising real interest rates are detrimental to interest rates, especially interest rate-sensitive assets, such as...<b>gold</b>(Chart 25), which may also push up...<b>dollar</b>(Figure 26). In addition, in terms of style performance, value is relatively better than growth (Chart 27). However, it should be noted that since we are no longer in the phase of accelerated increases and liquidity introduction is gradually approaching, and although we expect interest rates to rise again, it may also be the last wave,<b>Therefore, high-quality growth with reasonable valuations remains attractive.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c183194b4ae3baec72aa317f1d9adbf6\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be2ba7872bac80f04056c66510b1587\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e9f3df9445122220011f3aee999981\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f076f1627a7036f0f36d5a4ad308acf1\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data drove a surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, with banks leading the gains; Emerging bulls have decreased, and US Treasury bulls have plummeted.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Leading. Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; US Treasury yields rebounds, banks lead gains</b></p><p>July's non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations. Although the recurring pandemic has dragged down the recovery of some service industries, the overall job market remains strong, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields factors rising sharply, and banks leading the gains. Overall, among major global assets, stocks > bonds > commodities, with natural gas, Bitcoin, Indian and South Korean stock markets leading the gains, while crude oil, VIX bulls, copper and gold led the declines. Looking at different sectors, the financial sector, including banking, integrated finance, and insurance, led the gains last week. The 10-year US Treasury yields closed at 1.30%, up about 7 basis points, real interest rates rose 11 basis points, and inflation expectations fell 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b3202772105670fdedf25ab5c8ac22\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5793ee0f835fc4399a6147905be212\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df48633b96eef4a3abe734c7ea22f16c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Emerging market long positions plummet, while long-term US Treasury long positions decrease.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks continued to decline compared to the previous week. In terms of positions, net long positions in US stocks increased slightly, while net long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase; Net long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have decreased significantly, while net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have turned into net long positions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a118885ec9541cd261cae8154362a7\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8307269123bdf4233f4abd11fbcd767f\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061f59624c4e22c051463b05dcf577d3\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c5b8402a85ace1675a182495a2a6ef\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Emerging Markets Shift to Outflow</b></p><p>Over the past week, inflows into the bond market have slowed slightly, inflows into the stock market have slowed significantly, and money market funds have continued to flow in. Looking at different markets, US stock inflows slowed significantly, European and Japanese stocks continued to flow in but also slowed down, and emerging markets turned to outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18276a69b2614b955d4a258055c1724a\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: July non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, ISM manufacturing PMI declined.</b></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI declined in July, with prices and customer inventories falling significantly.</b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5 in July from 60.6 in June, lower than the expected 61.0. Looking at the individual items, the price index fell the most since March 2020, which to some extent indicates that inflationary pressures have eased. The employment index and orders on hand index rose, while the customer inventory index hit a record low.</p><p>In addition,<b>July's non-farm payrolls remained strong, with leisure hotels remaining the main source of data.</b>。 Non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, higher than the revised previous figure (938,000) and the expected figure (870,000). By category, leisure hotels remain the main source of new employment, with 380,000 new jobs added in July. Education and health, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and information technology improved the most compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate also fell to 5.4% in July from 5.9% the previous month, lower than the expected 5.7%. Meanwhile, wage growth in July remained at the same level as in June, reaching 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7c8e39876fbe05cefc701f4fe09d69\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e6eb406a515a108821959e2ea4ccb2\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce204e743bdd4bbac9e90b8c6e3a91d9\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► US stock valuations are above the support level of the growth and interest rate environment.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields rising and the ISM manufacturing PMI falling, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.1 is higher than the reasonable level (~26.8 times) supported by growth (July PMI = 59.5) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.30%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f99f376902d96742c5fab1597b79804\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183188196","content_text":"摘要\n周五公布的7月非农(94.3万)超出预期和前值,呈现出局部受变异病毒复发影响放缓甚至停滞、但整体依然持续改善的态势。在此基础上,我们更新了对于就业市场何时达到美联储门槛的测算,发现大概还需要5个月达到类似2013年正式减量时就业修复至64%的门槛。因此,12月FOMC正式减量、9月份修改声明暗示目前看来依然是大概率事件。\n除此之外,此次非农数据本身可能并无太多圈点之处,但并未太超预期的数据却推动美债利率和美元指数大幅走高,背后原因值得寻味,这可能说明此前持续走低的利率和被压制的空头反弹,只需要一个引子而已。\n我们认为,过去一段时间利率走向在方向上并非不能理解,但回落幅度更让人意外。在这一背景下,需要关注甚至防范,不管因为何种原因像弹簧一样被持续压制的利率在一些催化剂诱发下反抽的可能性。\n后续有什么可能成为利率上行的催化剂?\n1)增长预期修复:如关键增长数据向好或者变异病毒疫情回落。当前正在推进的拜登新一轮基建进展也值得关注。\n2)政策退出预期升温:如9月FOMC暗示减量或者8月Jackson Hole会议开始吹风。由于利率变化会提前反应预期,因此比起正式执行,开始暗示减量的时点更为重要。此外,债务上限问题解决后财政部可以再度发债,国债供给上升也可能增加利率上行压力。\n利率再度上行的影响?\n1)速度:利率过快上行意味着债券资产波动加大,将会带来跨资产的波动传染,进而对美股和其他市场、特别是相对高估值板块带来较大扰动;2)方向和结构:长端利率上行特别是利差走阔有利于金融板块的表现;3)驱动因素:实际利率上行不利于利率敏感型资产,例如黄金,同时也可能推升美元。从风格表现上,价值也相对好于成长,但估值合理的优质成长仍具吸引力。\n本周焦点:利率再度上行的可能触发因素及其影响\n1. 非农数据及其对货币政策的影响?年底减量、9月暗示仍是大概率\n周五公布的7月非农(94.3万)超出预期(87.0万)和前值(93.8万),呈现出局部(如零售、休闲酒店等服务业)受变异病毒复发影响步伐放缓甚至停滞、但整体就业依然持续改善的态势(图表1~2)。在此基础上,我们更新了对于就业市场何时达到美联储门槛(所谓进一步重大进展further substantial progress)的测算,发现大概还需要5个月达到类似2013年正式减量时就业修复64%的水平(图表3)。因此,12月FOMC正式减量、9月份修改声明暗示目前看来依然是大概率事件(图表4)。\n\n除了上文中提到的特征外,此次非农数据本身可能并无太多圈点之处,但并未太超预期的数据却推动美债利率和美元指数大幅走高(图表5),背后原因值得寻味,这可能说明此前持续走低的利率和被压制的空头反弹(图表6),只需要一个引子而已。\n\n2. 过去一段时间利率回落的原因与启示?方向可以理解,水平并不匹配\n10年美债自5月中旬以来持续下行,一度降至1.17%的低位,从高点计最多降幅超过50bp。先是通胀预期回落主导(《海外资产配置月报(2021-7)再通胀交易的回落》),6月FOMC会议后实际利率接棒下行并创历史新低(《近期美元涨长债跌为哪般?2021年6月14日~6月20日》)。这期间,美联储点阵图和对利率走廊的技术调整引发“卖短买长”(《美债利率下行在交易什么?2021年7月5日~7月11日》)、空头回补、中国意外降准引发增长担忧、逆回购激增实质上增加对国债需求(《如何理解美联储逆回购激增与利率走廊机制?2021年6月28日~7月4日》、《美联储已经事实上“缩表”?2021年7月19日~7月25日》)以及近期Delta变异病毒复发(《引发市场大跌的变种疫情有多严重?》),虽然可能存在巧合,但却给了多头不断看多债券一环扣一环的理由,进而促成了长达3个月且幅度超预期的利率下行(图表9~10)。\n我们认为,过去一段时间利率走向在方向上并非不能理解,毕竟我们在此前利率快速上行阶段就提示利率上行是间歇性的、且需要新的催化剂;同时,长端通胀预期逐步回落较为确定,变异病毒复发对短期增长动能的扰动也不能完全无视。相比之下,其回落幅度更让人意外和费解,特别是实际利率创新低的走势更多是在交易经济衰退而非眼下增长动能放缓的预期。\n在这一背景下,我们认为就需要关注甚至防范,不管因为何种原因像弹簧一样被持续压制的利率在一些催化剂诱发下反抽的可能性,周五非农数据后长端利率的表现可能就是一个例子。\n3. 什么可能成为利率上行的催化剂?疫情、FOMC、基建方案和债务上限\n诚然,很多时候,利率的短期走势会受交易因素影响而难以完全用基本面来解释,但是一些拐点依然有规律可循,特别是一些关键的事件性催化剂。参考前期导致利率下行的力量,我们认为以下事件或时间点值得关注:\n►增长预期修复:如关键增长数据向好或者变异病毒疫情见顶回落。\n我们在《海外资产配置月报(2021-8):短暂的类滞胀交易》中曾经分析到,我们认为市场可能高估了变异病毒的影响和增长回落的压力,进而导致近期利率持续新低。虽然市场担心因为长期增长前景依然不稳固可能使得实际利率回不到此前水平,但处于这么低的位置显然是不匹配的。更何况,此轮变异病毒复发对已经实现大规模疫苗接种的国家而言可能也没有表面上显现的那么严峻。大规模疫苗接种保证了新增确诊不断攀升时住院和死亡人数却能维持低位,进而无需采取从政策层面严格封锁以避免对对医疗资源的挤兑(图表11)。这一防疫路径似乎在英国已经逐渐成效(《英国阶段性抗疫成果的启示疫情复工周度追踪(7月31日)》),进而可能成为其他类似国家如美国未来防疫路径的样板(图表12~13)。如果是这样的话,近期市场特别是通过实际利率所反映的担忧可能就过多,未来疫情从高点回落就有可能成为利率回升的拐点。当然,一些关键数据,例如周五公布的非农数据好于预期也可以起到打消增长担忧的效果。\n此外,当前正在推进的拜登新一轮基建进展也值得关注,下周将在参议院迎来关键投票。尽管规模明显小于此前预期(图表29),但实现突破性进展可能带来的预期变化依然值得关注。\n\n►政策退出预期升温:如9月FOMC暗示减量或者8月Jackson Hole会议开始吹风。\n由于利率变化会提前反应预期,因此比起正式执行,开始暗示减量的时点更为重要。2013年正式减量之前就是如此,当年10月FOMC会议美联储维持9月声明确立减量即将到来后利率见底回升,直到12月正式减量开启后见顶。这一期间,实际利率是主要驱动力(图表17)。考虑到当前实际利率处于历史低位,而长端通胀预期随着政策收紧预期和供需矛盾边际缓解有望回落(如二手车产能和库存修复,图表14~15),因此依然可能是以实际利率上行为主。\n\n此外,债务上限问题解决后财政部可以再度发债,国债供给上升也可能增加利率上行压力。前期财政部TGA账户释放大量流动性通过逆回购又回到美联储账上,在“锁住”部分流动性的同时、也实质上增加了国债的需求。往前看,待债务上限得到解决后(财政部紧急措施可以持续到9月末)(图表19),财政部可以再度发债并预计补充部分TGA现金储备(图表20),而国债供给增加也可能会增加利率上行的压力。\n\n4. 利率再度上行的影响?速度、结构和驱动\n综合上文分析,在未来一些增长和流动性事件或政策的催化下,长端利率不排除再度上行、特别是实际利率,这其中美联储9月FOMC会议关于减量的信号值得密切关注,但待正式减量开启后不排除逐步筑顶(图表21)。\n那么,如果利率再度上行,会带来什么影响呢?我们认为主要体现在以下几个方面:\n1)速度,利率过快上行意味着债券资产波动加大,将会带来跨资产的波动传染,进而对美股和其他市场、特别是相对高估值板块带来较大扰动(图表22);\n2)方向和结构:长端利率上行特别是利差走阔有利于金融板块的表现(图表23~24),周五非农数据后的情形便是如此;\n3)驱动因素:实际利率的上行不利于对利率特别是利率敏感型资产,例如黄金(图表25),同时也可能推升美元(图表26)。此外,从风格表现上,价值也相对好于成长(图表27)。不过,需要说明的是,由于当前已经不处于增加加速阶段且流动性推出逐步临近,同时我们虽然预期利率还有一轮上行但也有可能是最后一波,因此估值合理的优质成长依然具有吸引力。\n\n市场动态:非农超预期,推动美债利率和美元大涨,银行领涨;新兴多头减少,美债多头骤降\n►资产表现:领先。股>债>大宗;美债利率回升,银行领涨\n7月非农就业数据超预期,虽然疫情反复对于部分服务行业的修复产生拖累,但整体就业市场依然强劲,美元和美债利率因素大幅抬升,银行领涨。整体看,全球主要资产中,股>债>大宗,天然气、比特币、印度及韩国股市领涨,原油、VIX多头、铜、黄金领跌。分板块看,包括银行、综合金融、保险在内的金融板块上周领涨。10年美债利率收于1.30%,抬升约7bps,实际利率抬升11bps,通胀预期回落4bp。\n\n►情绪仓位:新兴多头骤降,长端美债多头减少\n过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续回落。仓位方面,美股净多头仓位略有抬升,美元指数净多头仓位继续增加;10年美债净多头仓位大幅减少,2年美债净空头转为净多头。\n\n►资金流向:股市流入放缓、新兴转为流出\n过去一周,债市流入略有放缓,股市流入大幅放缓,货币市场基金持续流入。分市场看,美股流入大幅放缓,欧洲和日本继续流入但同样放缓,新兴市场转为流出。\n\n►基本面与政策:7月非农超预期,ISM制造业PMI下滑\n7月ISM制造业PMI下滑,物价及客户库存回落明显。7月ISM制造业PMI从6月的60.6降至7月的59.5,不及预期的61.0。分项看,物价指数降幅创2020年3月以来最大,一定程度上说明通胀压力有所缓解。就业指数及在手订单指数抬升,客户库存指数创历史新低。\n此外,7月非农依旧强劲,休闲酒店仍是主要来源。7月非农新增就业94.3万,高于修正后前值(93.8万)和预期(87.0万);分项看,休闲酒店依然是新增就业的主要来源,7月新增38.0万。教育健康、运输仓储业、金融活动、信息业较前月改善最多。7月失业率也从前月5.9%回落至5.4%,低于预期的5.7%。与此同时,7月工资环比增速维持6月水平,达0.4%,高于预期的0.3%。\n\n►美股估值高于增长和利率环境支撑水平\n伴随10年美债利率抬升及ISM制造业PMI回落,当前标普500指数27.1倍静态P/E高于增长(7月PMI=59.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.30%)能够支撑的合理水平(~26.8倍)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890549697,"gmtCreate":1628125594719,"gmtModify":1703501638499,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890549697","repostId":"2157748502","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807873964,"gmtCreate":1628032597958,"gmtModify":1703499790819,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807873964","repostId":"2156201911","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156201911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628026500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156201911?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 05:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines: Household Debt in the Second Quarter of the United States Increased by the Largest Increase in 2013","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156201911","media":"新浪财经","summary":" 在抵押贷款热潮推动下,第二季度美国家庭债务创下2013年以来最快增速。低借贷成本以及对更宽敞居家办公空间的渴望催生了房贷需求。 纽约联储周二公布报告显示 ,截至6月底,家庭负债增长3130亿美元,至14.96万亿美元,较三个月前增长2.1%。 总体而言,家庭债务占经济的比重仍远低于2008年金融危机前几年创下的高点。而且一些借款余额仍低于疫情爆发前水平。","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Mortgage boom drives U.S. household debt to the biggest increase since 2013</b><b>2. French Commerce Bank: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will wait until after the 2024 election before rate hike</b><b>3. US SEC Chairman Gensler guides the way for Bitcoin ETF: accept strict supervision</b><b>4. The Delta variant virus is fierce and the threshold of herd immunity is expected to be pushed up to more than 80%</b><b>5. The world's biggest banks made $170 billion in profit during the epidemic, the most profitable year ever</b><b>6. Britain is reported to be considering blocking the largest US chipmaker due to national security concerns<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Acquisition of Arm</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d7305c68055f3de54cae5c51091b1e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Mortgage boom drives U.S. household debt to biggest rise since 2013</b></p><p>U.S. household debt grew at the fastest pace since 2013 in the second quarter, fueled by the mortgage boom. Low borrowing costs and a desire for more spacious home office space have spawned demand for mortgages.</p><p>Household debt rose $313 billion to $14.96 trillion at the end of June, up 2.1% from three months ago, according to a report released by the New York Fed on Tuesday. The increase was mainly from mortgage balances.</p><p>Credit standards have been easing for other types of credit, such as auto loans and credit cards, according to the Federal Reserve's July Senior Lending Commissioner Opinion Survey released Monday.</p><p>Overall, household debt as a share of the economy remains well below the highs reached in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. And some borrowing balances remain below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8de5a34c997f13ec1aab21f9a9b5ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Fed is expected to wait until after 2024 election before rate hike: Fédération</b></p><p>Bond investors expecting the Fed to change course may have to wait a long time.</p><p>\"My guess is that we won't tighten policy until after the next presidential election,\" Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Commerce France, said in an interview Tuesday. \"You look at the last two cycles, the average time from the last rate cut to the first rate hike is seven years. So it's really not that unusual.\"</p><p>LaVorgna served as a financial markets and economic adviser to former U.S. President Donald Trump, where he served as special assistant and chief economist at the National Economic Council. He said that after strong growth this year, economic growth is poised to slow in 2022, putting little pressure on the Fed to take interest rate action.</p><p>\"Next year I think growth is only 2% or even lower,\" he said. \"Inflation will be temporary. That's what the market is telling us.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efff1ba5fb6313b1cce4bfb7b8dde08f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>U.S. SEC Chairman Gensler Shows the Way for Bitcoin ETFs: Accept Strict Regulation</b></p><p>Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, hinted at a path to approve the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs, saying that ETFs that meet the SEC's strict rules on mutual funds can provide investors with the necessary protection.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts believe that Bitcoin ETFs are essential for cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream. In his first major speech on cryptocurrencies, Gensler also hinted at an openness to Bitcoin futures-focused ETFs. The futures are offered by CME group and require investors to put up a substantial margin.</p><p>\"With these important safeguards in place, I look forward to staff review of such applications, especially if these ETFs are limited to CME-traded Bitcoin futures,\" he said in a speech prepared for the Aspen Safety Forum on Tuesday.</p><p>Under Gensler and former Chairman Jay Clayton, the SEC has repeatedly refused to approve cryptocurrency ETFs, concerned about transparency and risk of manipulation in the Bitcoin spot market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b16f07eb7d6ece2c21db131847c236\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Delta variant virus is fierce and the threshold of herd immunity is expected to be pushed up to more than 80%</b></p><p>The spread of the delta coronavirus variant has pushed the threshold for herd immunity above 80 percent and could approach 90 percent, the American Society for Infectious Diseases said Tuesday at a briefing.</p><p>Richard Franco, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama, said this is \"much higher\" than previous estimates of 60 to 70 percent because delta has twice the spread rate of previous viruses.</p><p>\"Obviously this is a very dangerous virus, much more dangerous than the original virus,\" Franco said.</p><p>Herd immunity is based on the idea that immunization when a certain percentage of the population has been vaccinated or has been previously infected will help protect the wider population and reduce the spread of the virus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b52ef92fbf36ab71df9cf269a097a761\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The world's biggest banks earn $170 billion in pandemic, record their most profitable year ever</b></p><p>The dust has settled on earnings season and the combined profits of more than a dozen of the biggest banks over the past four quarters exceeded $170 billion, underscoring how dramatically the industry has changed from the downturn of the early pandemic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Especially good, earning the equivalent of $131 million a day.</p><p>Some successful deals in the early days of COVID helped the industry. As last year's market volatility recedes, investment bankers are poised to drive acquisition and fundraising activities through special purpose acquisition vehicles. Then as the world economy began to recover, banks with wealth management and asset management divisions enjoyed the dividends of the stock market. The same trend has benefited the retail division, which has long been seen as a drag on performance, as they begin to cut loan loss provisions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both break their own earnings records, European peers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And Barclays' profits were at their highest levels in a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Société Générale</a>And other banks said their businesses had benefited from the improving global economy. Bank stocks reflect the impact of this wave of strong results, Dow Jones<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The industry index has risen 59% over the past year, and the European Stoxx index has risen 56%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a80a0b994f4a61751162e92c143ca57c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The UK is reportedly considering blocking Nvidia's acquisition of Arm, the largest US chipmaker, over national security concerns</b></p><p>The United Kingdom is considering blocking Nvidia's acquisition of Arm Ltd. due to potential national security risks, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Nvidia, the largest chip company in the United States by market value, announced last September that it would acquire Arm for $40 billion to expand its territory in the rapidly growing semiconductor market. Arm is currently owned by Japanese conglomerate SoftBank.</p><p>In April, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden asked the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to prepare a report on whether the deal could be considered anti-competitive and to aggregate any national security concerns raised by third parties.</p><p>The assessment, released at the end of July, contains national security concerns, and the UK is currently inclined to dismiss the deal. Another person familiar with the matter said the UK could take a more in-depth assessment of the merger due to national security concerns.</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines: Household Debt in the Second Quarter of the United States Increased by the Largest Increase in 2013</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines: Household Debt in the Second Quarter of the United States Increased by the Largest Increase in 2013\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 05:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Mortgage boom drives U.S. household debt to the biggest increase since 2013</b><b>2. French Commerce Bank: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will wait until after the 2024 election before rate hike</b><b>3. US SEC Chairman Gensler guides the way for Bitcoin ETF: accept strict supervision</b><b>4. The Delta variant virus is fierce and the threshold of herd immunity is expected to be pushed up to more than 80%</b><b>5. The world's biggest banks made $170 billion in profit during the epidemic, the most profitable year ever</b><b>6. Britain is reported to be considering blocking the largest US chipmaker due to national security concerns<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Acquisition of Arm</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d7305c68055f3de54cae5c51091b1e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Mortgage boom drives U.S. household debt to biggest rise since 2013</b></p><p>U.S. household debt grew at the fastest pace since 2013 in the second quarter, fueled by the mortgage boom. Low borrowing costs and a desire for more spacious home office space have spawned demand for mortgages.</p><p>Household debt rose $313 billion to $14.96 trillion at the end of June, up 2.1% from three months ago, according to a report released by the New York Fed on Tuesday. The increase was mainly from mortgage balances.</p><p>Credit standards have been easing for other types of credit, such as auto loans and credit cards, according to the Federal Reserve's July Senior Lending Commissioner Opinion Survey released Monday.</p><p>Overall, household debt as a share of the economy remains well below the highs reached in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. And some borrowing balances remain below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8de5a34c997f13ec1aab21f9a9b5ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Fed is expected to wait until after 2024 election before rate hike: Fédération</b></p><p>Bond investors expecting the Fed to change course may have to wait a long time.</p><p>\"My guess is that we won't tighten policy until after the next presidential election,\" Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Commerce France, said in an interview Tuesday. \"You look at the last two cycles, the average time from the last rate cut to the first rate hike is seven years. So it's really not that unusual.\"</p><p>LaVorgna served as a financial markets and economic adviser to former U.S. President Donald Trump, where he served as special assistant and chief economist at the National Economic Council. He said that after strong growth this year, economic growth is poised to slow in 2022, putting little pressure on the Fed to take interest rate action.</p><p>\"Next year I think growth is only 2% or even lower,\" he said. \"Inflation will be temporary. That's what the market is telling us.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efff1ba5fb6313b1cce4bfb7b8dde08f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>U.S. SEC Chairman Gensler Shows the Way for Bitcoin ETFs: Accept Strict Regulation</b></p><p>Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, hinted at a path to approve the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs, saying that ETFs that meet the SEC's strict rules on mutual funds can provide investors with the necessary protection.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts believe that Bitcoin ETFs are essential for cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream. In his first major speech on cryptocurrencies, Gensler also hinted at an openness to Bitcoin futures-focused ETFs. The futures are offered by CME group and require investors to put up a substantial margin.</p><p>\"With these important safeguards in place, I look forward to staff review of such applications, especially if these ETFs are limited to CME-traded Bitcoin futures,\" he said in a speech prepared for the Aspen Safety Forum on Tuesday.</p><p>Under Gensler and former Chairman Jay Clayton, the SEC has repeatedly refused to approve cryptocurrency ETFs, concerned about transparency and risk of manipulation in the Bitcoin spot market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b16f07eb7d6ece2c21db131847c236\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Delta variant virus is fierce and the threshold of herd immunity is expected to be pushed up to more than 80%</b></p><p>The spread of the delta coronavirus variant has pushed the threshold for herd immunity above 80 percent and could approach 90 percent, the American Society for Infectious Diseases said Tuesday at a briefing.</p><p>Richard Franco, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama, said this is \"much higher\" than previous estimates of 60 to 70 percent because delta has twice the spread rate of previous viruses.</p><p>\"Obviously this is a very dangerous virus, much more dangerous than the original virus,\" Franco said.</p><p>Herd immunity is based on the idea that immunization when a certain percentage of the population has been vaccinated or has been previously infected will help protect the wider population and reduce the spread of the virus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b52ef92fbf36ab71df9cf269a097a761\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The world's biggest banks earn $170 billion in pandemic, record their most profitable year ever</b></p><p>The dust has settled on earnings season and the combined profits of more than a dozen of the biggest banks over the past four quarters exceeded $170 billion, underscoring how dramatically the industry has changed from the downturn of the early pandemic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Especially good, earning the equivalent of $131 million a day.</p><p>Some successful deals in the early days of COVID helped the industry. As last year's market volatility recedes, investment bankers are poised to drive acquisition and fundraising activities through special purpose acquisition vehicles. Then as the world economy began to recover, banks with wealth management and asset management divisions enjoyed the dividends of the stock market. The same trend has benefited the retail division, which has long been seen as a drag on performance, as they begin to cut loan loss provisions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both break their own earnings records, European peers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And Barclays' profits were at their highest levels in a decade.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Société Générale</a>And other banks said their businesses had benefited from the improving global economy. Bank stocks reflect the impact of this wave of strong results, Dow Jones<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The industry index has risen 59% over the past year, and the European Stoxx index has risen 56%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a80a0b994f4a61751162e92c143ca57c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The UK is reportedly considering blocking Nvidia's acquisition of Arm, the largest US chipmaker, over national security concerns</b></p><p>The United Kingdom is considering blocking Nvidia's acquisition of Arm Ltd. due to potential national security risks, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Nvidia, the largest chip company in the United States by market value, announced last September that it would acquire Arm for $40 billion to expand its territory in the rapidly growing semiconductor market. Arm is currently owned by Japanese conglomerate SoftBank.</p><p>In April, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden asked the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to prepare a report on whether the deal could be considered anti-competitive and to aggregate any national security concerns raised by third parties.</p><p>The assessment, released at the end of July, contains national security concerns, and the UK is currently inclined to dismiss the deal. Another person familiar with the matter said the UK could take a more in-depth assessment of the merger due to national security concerns.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-08-04/doc-ikqciyzk9379676.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b16f07eb7d6ece2c21db131847c236","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-08-04/doc-ikqciyzk9379676.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2156201911","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有:\n\n1、抵押贷款热潮推动美国家庭债务创2013年以来最大增幅\n\n\n2、法国外贸银行:预计美联储要等到2024年大选后才加息\n\n\n3、美国SEC主席根斯勒为比特币ETF指路:接受严格监管\n\n\n4、Delta变种病毒来势凶猛 群体免疫门槛料被推高至80%以上\n\n\n5、全球大银行疫情中盈利1700亿美元 创下有史以来最赚钱的一年\n\n\n6、英国据悉因国家安全关切考虑阻止美国最大芯片商英伟达收购Arm\n\n\n抵押贷款热潮推动美国家庭债务创2013年以来最大增幅\n在抵押贷款热潮推动下,第二季度美国家庭债务创下2013年以来最快增速。低借贷成本以及对更宽敞居家办公空间的渴望催生了房贷需求。\n纽约联储周二公布报告显示 ,截至6月底,家庭负债增长3130亿美元,至14.96万亿美元,较三个月前增长2.1%。增量主要来自抵押贷款余额。\n美联储周一公布的7月高级贷款专员意见调查显示,对于其他类型的信贷,例如汽车贷款和信用卡,信贷标准一直在放松。\n总体而言,家庭债务占经济的比重仍远低于2008年金融危机前几年创下的高点。而且一些借款余额仍低于疫情爆发前水平。\n\n法国外贸银行:预计美联储要等到2024年大选后才加息\n期待美联储改弦更张的债券投资者可能要等很久。\n“我的猜测是我们要等到下一次总统大选之后才会收紧政策,”法国外贸银行首席美洲经济学家Joseph LaVorgna周二接受采访时表示。“你看看最近两个周期,从最后一次降息到第一次加息的平均时间是七年。所以这真不是那么不寻常。”\nLaVorgna曾任美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的金融市场和经济顾问,职务是国家经济委员会特别助理兼首席经济学家。他表示,在今年强劲增长后,2022年经济增长势将放缓,令美联储采取利率行动的压力不大。\n“明年我认为增长率只有2%,甚至更低,”他说。“通胀将是暂时的。这是市场告诉我们的。”\n\n美国SEC主席根斯勒为比特币ETF指路:接受严格监管\n美国证券交易委员会主席根斯勒(Gary Gensler)暗示了一条批准设立比特币ETF的途径,表示符合SEC关于共同基金严格规则的ETF能给投资者提供必要的保护。\n加密货币爱好者认为,比特币ETF对于加密货币进入主流领域至关重要。在他首次有关加密货币的重要演讲中,Gensler还暗示对专注于比特币期货的ETF持开放态度。这种期货由芝商所提供,并要求投资者拿出可观的保证金。\n“有了这些重要的保护措施,我期待工作人员对此类申请进行审查,特别是如果这些ETF仅限于CME交易的比特币期货,”他在周二为阿斯彭安全论坛准备的讲话中表示。\n在Gensler及前任主席Jay Clayton领导下,SEC多次拒绝批准加密货币ETF,担心比特币现货市场的透明度和操纵风险。\n\nDelta变种病毒来势凶猛 群体免疫门槛料被推高至80%以上\n美国传染病学会周二在一次情况通报会上表示,delta新冠病毒变种的传播已将群体免疫的门槛推高至80%以上,并可能接近90%。\n阿拉巴马大学助理教授Richard Franco表示,这比之前估计的60%至70%“高得多”,因为delta的传播率是先前病毒的两倍。\n“显然这是一种非常危险的病毒,比原始病毒危险得多,” Franco说。\n群体免疫是基于这样的想法:当一定比例的人口已经接种疫苗或之前曾感染而获得免疫,将有助于保护更广泛的人群并减少病毒的传播。\n\n全球大银行疫情中盈利1700亿美元 创下有史以来最赚钱的一年\n财报季尘埃落定,十几家最大银行过去四个季度的利润总和超过1700亿美元,彰显出该行业与疫情早期的低迷相比发生了多么巨大的变化。摩根大通尤为出色,所获利润相当于每天赚进1.31亿美元。\n新冠疫情早期一些成功的交易帮助了该行业。随着去年的市场波动消退,投资银行家准备通过特殊目的收购工具来推动收购和筹资活动。然后随着世界经济开始复苏,拥有财富管理和资产管理部门的银行享受到了股市的红利。同样的趋势也惠及长期以来被视为拖业绩后腿的零售部门,因为他们开始削减贷款损失拨备。\n高盛和摩根士丹利双双打破自身盈利纪录,欧洲同行瑞银和巴克莱的利润都创十年来最高水平。德意志银行和法国兴业银行等银行表示业务受益于全球经济改善。银行股反映了这一波强劲业绩的影响,道琼斯美国银行业指数过去一年上涨59%,欧洲斯托克银行股指数上涨56%。\n\n英国据悉因国家安全关切考虑阻止美国最大芯片商英伟达收购Arm\n据知情人士透露,英国因潜在国家安全风险正考虑阻止英伟达收购Arm Ltd.。\n按市值计算美国最大芯片公司英伟达去年9月宣布以400亿美元收购Arm,以在发展迅猛的半导体市场扩大地盘。Arm目前为日本企业集团软银所有。\n今年4月,英国文化大臣Oliver Dowden要求竞争和市场管理局(CMA)准备一份有关该交易是否可被视为反竞争的报告,并汇总第三方提出的任何国家安全关切。\n7月底出炉的评估报告包含国家安全关切,英国目前倾向于否定该交易。另一位知情人士表示,出于国家安全考虑,英国可能会对这笔并购进行更深入的评估。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806564390,"gmtCreate":1627680566410,"gmtModify":1703494497374,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806564390","repostId":"1114965747","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114965747","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627655569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114965747?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AMD shares rose over 3% to a record high, prompting several major banks to raise their target prices after its earnings report.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114965747","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月30日,AMD涨超3%,现报106.2美元,股价再创历史新高,近3个交易日累计涨幅已超16%,绩后获多家大行上调目标价。\n\nAMD二季度营收达38.5亿美元,同比增长99%;净利润达7.1亿美元,","content":"<p>On July 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>The stock rose more than 3% and is currently trading at $106.2, hitting a new all-time high. The cumulative increase in the past three trading days has exceeded 16%, and several major banks raised their target prices after the earnings report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ff371be500c72b396cac54bbf67a525\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMD's revenue reached $3.85 billion in the second quarter, a year-over-year increase of 99%; Net profit reached $710 million, a year-on-year increase of 352%. Following the company's earnings report, several major banks raised their target prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Believing that Wall Street underestimated AMD's potential for long-term and short-term revenue growth and profit margin expansion, it raised its price target from $106 to $115. Goldman Sachs reiterated its \"buy\" rating on Supermicro, while also reiterating its position on its confident buy list.</p><p>Mizuho raised its price target for AMD from $107 to $110; Argus raised its target price to $120 from $106, maintaining its \"buy\" rating.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD shares rose over 3% to a record high, prompting several major banks to raise their target prices after its earnings report.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD shares rose over 3% to a record high, prompting several major banks to raise their target prices after its earnings report.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-30 22:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 30,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>The stock rose more than 3% and is currently trading at $106.2, hitting a new all-time high. The cumulative increase in the past three trading days has exceeded 16%, and several major banks raised their target prices after the earnings report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ff371be500c72b396cac54bbf67a525\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMD's revenue reached $3.85 billion in the second quarter, a year-over-year increase of 99%; Net profit reached $710 million, a year-on-year increase of 352%. Following the company's earnings report, several major banks raised their target prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Believing that Wall Street underestimated AMD's potential for long-term and short-term revenue growth and profit margin expansion, it raised its price target from $106 to $115. Goldman Sachs reiterated its \"buy\" rating on Supermicro, while also reiterating its position on its confident buy list.</p><p>Mizuho raised its price target for AMD from $107 to $110; Argus raised its target price to $120 from $106, maintaining its \"buy\" rating.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","GS":"高盛"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114965747","content_text":"7月30日,AMD涨超3%,现报106.2美元,股价再创历史新高,近3个交易日累计涨幅已超16%,绩后获多家大行上调目标价。\n\nAMD二季度营收达38.5亿美元,同比增长99%;净利润达7.1亿美元,同比增长352%。公司绩后获多家大行上调目标价,高盛认为华尔街低估了AMD的长短期收入增长和利润率扩张的潜力,因此将其目标价从106美元上调至115美元。高盛重申了美国超微公司“买入”评级,同时重申美国超微公司在其确信购买名单上的位置。\n瑞穗将AMD目标价从107美元上调至110美元;Argus从目标价106美元升至120美元,维持“买入”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803360000,"gmtCreate":1627421480300,"gmtModify":1703489466813,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803360000","repostId":"1168202239","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803384752,"gmtCreate":1627421314776,"gmtModify":1703489464968,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803384752","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120859674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌,包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域,关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1627352185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120859674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120859674","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"谁都不希望坏事发生,但如果发生,也不至于措手不及。","content":"<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 10:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6f6a5034baf0d08c9227da13ca9733","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120859674","content_text":"文/贾铭\n7月23日,一份名为《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》的中办发文件在网络流传。《意见》包含,严禁教育培训机构“资本化”运作,学科类培训机构一律不得上市融资等措施,海外上市的教育类股票应声而跌。比如,新东方在港交所的股价一度“腰斩”(新东方S,23号收跌40.61%,26号再收跌47.02%;新东方在线23号和26号分别收跌28.07%、33.45%;新东方在美股收盘跌幅23号为54.22%),23号,高途在美股跌幅达63.26%,好未来跌幅更是超过70%。\n官方已经于7月24日晚正式公布该文件,多家媒体有全文转发,感兴趣的读者可以找来看。\n今天这篇文章,并不分析中办的40号文,而是想探讨两个问题。\n第一,为什么这么多中国企业选择在美上市?\n第二,考虑到中美关系、瑞幸造假、滴滴下架等事件,在海外上市的这些中概股,未来命运如何?\n主要原因\n中国企业在美国的证券交易所上市的热情,差不多超过其他任何非美国的企业,即使在中美关系明显遇冷之后,依然如此。\n2019年,有32家企业赴美上市,2020年为34家,2021年上半年,已完成赴美上市的企业有37家。据wind数据,截至2021年7月,共有286家中国企业在美国上市——包括那些注册在中国香港或者开曼群岛等离岸中心,但大部分收入和利润来自中国内地的企业——事实上,大部分在美国上市的中国企业,基本都采取了这种上市方式。\n2018年以来,美国在打压中国科技企业的同时,提高了对赴美上市中国企业的审计要求,中企赴美上市的整体环境并不佳,那为什么中国企业仍毅然选择赴美上市呢?\n众所周知的几个原因是:\n第一,美国的资本市场建设比较早,融资体系和法律法规相对来讲更加成熟和完善。从总体融资环境看,美国对于互联网公司、高科技公司普遍看好,同样的一只股票,在美国上市,相对容易获得更高的估值,募集更多的资金。\n第二,更重要的是,美国资本市场采取注册制,对于拟上市公司不设盈利门槛。只要你的公司业务高速增长,占据很大的市场份额,即便亏损也能上市。我国采取审核制,申请A股上市的必要条件是连续三年盈利。\n互联网企业成长很快,所以总是非常缺钱。有的互联网企业,或许仅仅创立几年,就成为了估值超过十亿的独角兽,这时候面临投资人变现的压力和进一步发展的压力,就要准备上市做大规模筹资了,但是多数企业这时候可能才刚刚开始盈利,甚至还没有盈利,所以达不到连续三年盈利的条件,也就无法在A股市场上市融资。要是等两三年后再去上市筹资,不仅可能错过最好的发展时机,融不到资,企业能不能活下去都成了未知数。所以,只能去国外。\n第三,我国的上市审批周期长短不定,遇到上市审批暂停,企业想上市,整个流程长的话可能要三四年。时间就是金钱,很多企业等不起。\n以上三个原因,尤其是第二和第三,应该是中国企业赴美上市最主要的两个原因。但除此之外,还有以下几个原因不应该被忽视。\n\n出身原因\n我们现在经常说,中国的互联网企业做的很好。我们又通常把2000年前后,称为中国的互联网元年。但我们不能忘记,在互联网发展初期,没有几个人能看得懂这种业态,所以这些企业不可能拿到银行贷款。\n其实不仅仅是互联网初创期,所有企业初创期,都很难拿到银行贷款。由于商业银行严格的贷款审批手续和天生的风险厌恶属性,它宁愿少赚点贷款利息,也更愿意把钱贷给四平八稳的企业。\n银行本来就不是给初创企业投资的机构,给初创企业投资,应该是天使投资人和风投机构干的事儿,而我国那时候没有什么风险投资(VC)和私募股权(PE)。这些互联网企业在国内找不到钱,但发展又需要钱,怎么办?只能引进境外资本。\n要知道,我们的改革开放早期,也是用境内的市场换境外的资本和技术。所以还是邓公说的好,管它黑猫白猫,能抓老鼠就是好猫。资本本是中性,无所谓好坏,如果只是用地域作为分类依据,当然是可以的。但如果要做价值判断,更重要的是要看这些资本被用来做的具体的事情,而不是这些资本的出身。\n所以,我国的很多互联网巨头(为了避免不必要的麻烦,这里就不举例了),在设立之初,就是中外合资企业。这又引出了另一个问题:VIE架构的合法性问题。\n可变利益实体架构(Variable Interest Entity),简称VIE架构,通常被称为“协议控制”,是指拟上市公司在境外注册的上市实体,与内地业务经营主体分离,由境外上市实体透过协议方式控制境内业务经营主体,并把收入和利润转移到境外公司。VIE架构又衍生出很多不同的形式,但本质是一样的,这里不展开。\n因为我国法律对境外资金在“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”的行业准入有严格限制,不允许境外资本直接投资电信、互联网相关企业。当然也不允许这些行业的公司直接在海外集资或者上市。所以,这些企业采取VIE架构绕开监管。\n监管当然知道这种形式,之所以没有完全禁绝,一方面是这种架构并不“明显违法”,另一方面当然也是一种监管智慧。\n但这种企业在境内上市的话,还是要严格按照上市的监管要求,那这种VIE架构的合法性就成了问题,所以不能直接境内上市。\n这就意味着,一部分互联网企业从诞生的那天起,根就是歪的。根不歪就活不下来,活下来了又留下了不好的出身——“缺钱-引进外资-变成合资企业-采取VIE架构-境内上市的合法性有问题-境外上市”。\n现在好多了,我国的多层次资本市场建设越来越完善,人民币风投和私募也多了,在国内找不到钱的问题,得到了很大的缓解。\n王小波在《沉默的大多数》中说,做价值判断太容易了,如果我们是一只公兔子,我们天然就知道大灰狼坏,母兔子好。但兔子不知道怎么背九九乘法表。搞清楚上面这个背景,就有点九九乘法表的意思,无论我们对互联网企业去境外上市做出何种价值评价——如何评价是我们的自由——但起码我们的评判是基于事情完整的来龙去脉做出来的。\n\n其他原因\n还有两个原因分别是,资本的自由流通和同股不同权的追求。\n如前所述,由于很多企业的资金来源包括国际私募基金和风险投资公司,而中国又实行外汇管制,在境内上市,风投资金获利退出会很麻烦,有汇兑风险,所以他们也有动力鼓励企业所有者在境外上市。有的企业所有者有做跨国企业的雄心,也愿意在美国上市,这既有利于拓展企业的知名度,又有利于企业募资和资产的全球布局,一举多得。\n又得啰嗦一点,私募和风投吃的就是高风险高收益这碗饭,只要他们能遵纪守法地赚钱,就不能说人家在企业上市后获利退出有什么不对。当然,如果违法乱纪,那必然是要依法追责的。\n有人可能会问,在香港上市,资本也可以自由流动啊。上市公司创业者与早期投资者可以轻松地将上市筹集的港元兑换成美元或其他任何货币。这就到了另一个原因,“同股同权”和“同股不同权”。\n在我国内地上市的公司要严格遵守同股同权的条例,即你拥有该公司多少股份,在重大事件投票时就拥有多少的投票权,这就是很多公司不想上市的原因,害怕上市之后拥有的股份不多,导致公司创始人在董事会说不上话甚至会被踢出局。这也是之前流行的“野蛮人”恶意收购的原因,只要别人持有比你更多的股份,哪怕你是创始人,也会被踢出局。\n在2018年以前,在香港上市,也是同股同权的要求。2018年,港交所推出了一项改革,允许科技企业和生命科学领域里的企业采用美国式的同股不同权的结构。此后,越来越多的中国企业选择在香港上市,或者在中国香港和美国纽约两地同时挂牌。\n不是说同股同权不好。凡事都是有利有弊。同股同权要求持股不多的创始人谨慎上市,因为上市后可能被架空甚至踢出决策层,但谨慎上市又可能拖慢企业发展的速度,错过黄金发展期。\n赴美上市提供了一个同股不同权的选项,这就意味着,即使持有企业小于50%的股权,哪怕只持有10%甚至更低,也可以保持对企业的控制权。虽然方便了企业上市融资,但这很容易导致“内部人控制”问题。由于企业的实际控制人并不是最大的股东,那股东利益与经营者利益存在冲突的时候,实控人就容易假公济私,中饱私囊,或者采取一些风险比较大的经营行为。在一些国家,同股不同权被认为是企业治理问题的根源之一。\n\n信任危机\n前文基本解释了中国企业为啥更愿意去美国上市,有各种原因,有监管制度上的,有企业经营上的,总体而言,是一种很正常的趋利避害的商业行为。\n但中美贸易冲突升级以后,美国接连制裁中国的企业,有一些就是在美上市的中国企业。这增大了在美上市的风险,已经上市的部分企业,即使没有被制裁,因两国国际关系变动而带来的风险也在变大。2020年,瑞幸财务造假,更加剧了中概股的信任危机。\n特朗普政府趁机在任期结束之前签署《外国公司问责法案》,威胁说,如果中国方面连续三年不能够让美国上市公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)获得审计工作底稿,中国的上市企业将会被美国证券交易所摘牌。\n2021年6月22日,美国参议院又通过了另一项提案,提出退市时间可以提前一年。\n美国威胁要让中国企业退市的直接理由是保护美国投资者免受类似于去年瑞幸咖啡那样的会计造假带来的损失。说实话,这看起来其实挺有道理。财务造假是犯罪,不仅美国,我们相信任何一个国家的资本市场都要打击财务造假。\n但这里有几个问题。\n第一,中美双方一直在就审计底稿的问题进行磋商,但为啥现在突然翻脸。\n2009年,我国出台法律,要求企业“在境外发行证券与上市过程中,提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内”。\n2013年,我国和美国的PCAOB签署了一份合作谅解备忘录,并向PCAOB提供了4家企业的审计工作底稿。\n2016年到2019年,双方监管部门也一直就如何来有效地检查,有过一些合作尝试。关系好的时候有商有量,关系不好的时候就有点翻脸不认人的意思。\n第二,提供会计底稿是不是打击财务造假的一种有效形式。\n美国的证券市场监管法规一直在不断升级,比如2002年针对安然公司财务造假事件对《1933年证券法》《1934年证券交易法》做出大幅修订,形成了《2002年上市公司会计改革和投资者保护法案》(Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002),简称《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》,在公司治理、会计职业监管、证券市场监管等方面作出了许多新的规定。这事实上既有利于保护上市公司,也有利于保护投资者,是好事儿。\n但《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》之后建立的美国上市公司会计监督委员会已经可以审阅上市公司的审计底稿了,可之后又出现了世通、南方保健、房地美、美国国际集团和雷曼兄弟的会计问题。而大多数比较严重的会计造假事件,往往是由专业的卖空机构,通过使用“私服暗访”实地调查公司业务流量等技巧手段发现问题的,审计公司不会使用这些手段。\n美国上市公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)不一定能通过审计工作底稿来发现这些财务造假。换言之,审计底稿或许有助于打击财务造假,但并不是一种必不可少的方式,也不总是百分百有效。\n第三,《外国公司问责法案》的重要目标就是中概股公司,但美国不是第一天知道中国上市公司采用VIE架构。如果美国认为VIE架构有问题,那直接禁止中概股上市即可。\n两国在关系友好的时候,审计底稿并不是一个很重要的问题,两国可以协商解决,合作监管,因为互相信任。现在这种互信没有了。\n\n未雨绸缪\n我们希望中美关系可以在新的竞争关系中复归友好。但如果两国的隔阂越来越大,那在美上市的中国企业,确实需要做好两手准备。\n对中美两国来讲,中国企业从美国市场退市,似乎都不是难以承受的代价。\n对美国来讲,尽管中概股的波动比较大,但中概股的整体表现优于大部分美国上市公司股票,中国企业财务造假带来的损失,也远小于安然、雷曼这些美国公司。\n如果中概股退市,美国投资者会失去一个比较好的投资标的。但中概股退市后可以去港股和A股上市,如果美国投资者依旧看好中国企业,可以继续在香港地区通过合格境外投资者机制(QFII)或者互联互通机制买进,进行投资。\n对中国来讲,我国是一个高储蓄国家和资本净出口国,并非一定要在美国上市募资。我国自己的资本市场也在逐渐完善,注册制也在科创板试点,很可能不久后的未来就会全面铺开,未来中国企业在国内上市的便利度会大幅度提升,虽然在A股或者港股上市,估值很可能有缩水,但这对整个国家来讲,并不是什么不可接受的挑战。\n所以,如果中国企业在美退市,对两国来讲并不是什么不可接受的事件,那它们的命运就更多地受国际关系和历史进程的影响。这时候,企业应该做的就是未雨绸缪,防患于未然。\n谁都不希望坏事发生,但如果发生,也不至于措手不及。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513050":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177492503,"gmtCreate":1627256637602,"gmtModify":1703485974163,"author":{"id":"3579764409572228","authorId":"3579764409572228","name":"mengseng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa459e0d8e39660281c1567ec5207287","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579764409572228","idStr":"3579764409572228"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177492503","repostId":"2153840759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153840759","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627052471,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153840759?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Intel fell more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153840759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月23日,英特尔跌超5%,CEO 称芯片短缺将持续至2023年。\n业界越来越多的人认为,芯片供应中断不会很快得到解决,Gelsinger的预测为这种观点增添了业内领先人物的声音。 在周四的采访中,他","content":"<p>July 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Dropped more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023.</p><p>There is a growing belief in the industry that chip supply disruptions won't be resolved anytime soon, and Gelsinger's predictions add to the voices of the industry's leading figures. In an interview Thursday, he said it could take one to two years for the semiconductor industry to return to a reasonable supply-demand balance. We still have a long way to go because it takes a long time to build manufacturing capacity. In addition, Intel is already adding new chip production plants, though some of that capacity won't be in place for about two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198a9c06c3ac52d89ba193e88d320c04\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Intel fell more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Intel fell more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-23 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Dropped more than 5%, CEO said chip shortage will last until 2023.</p><p>There is a growing belief in the industry that chip supply disruptions won't be resolved anytime soon, and Gelsinger's predictions add to the voices of the industry's leading figures. In an interview Thursday, he said it could take one to two years for the semiconductor industry to return to a reasonable supply-demand balance. We still have a long way to go because it takes a long time to build manufacturing capacity. In addition, Intel is already adding new chip production plants, though some of that capacity won't be in place for about two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198a9c06c3ac52d89ba193e88d320c04\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153840759","content_text":"7月23日,英特尔跌超5%,CEO 称芯片短缺将持续至2023年。\n业界越来越多的人认为,芯片供应中断不会很快得到解决,Gelsinger的预测为这种观点增添了业内领先人物的声音。 在周四的采访中,他表示,半导体行业可能需要一到两年时间才能恢复合理的供需平衡。 我们还有很长的路要走,因为建立制造产能需要很长的时间。此外,英特尔已经在增加新的芯片生产工厂,不过其中一些产能在大约两年内不会到位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}