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  ·2021-06-11
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  Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is "temporary" inflation?
  美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐
  Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is "temporary" inflation?
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for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188150575","repostId":"1185815929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185815929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623381455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185815929?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve can indeed easily control high inflation, as the market believes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Close the magic box? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.\" US inflation has skyrocketed again, but the market seems fearless, with both US stocks and Treasuries surging. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Federal Reserve's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily rising.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer, however, stated bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is now being laid.</b></p><p>Bank of America stated that while U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, the market not only failed to recognize the inflation risks implied by a series of indicators, but also had a long list of excuses for ignoring inflation signs:</p><p>1. The labor shortage will disappear in the fall, when unemployment benefits will decrease, childcare will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting the coronavirus at work will also subside. 2. The bottlenecks in commodity production are caused by special shocks. As production recovers and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease, and commodity demand growth slows, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated. 4. The price increase is purely temporary and targets specific industries. As supply recovers, the upward trend will also fade; 5. By definition, any aspect of price inflation is a temporary rise because the output gap still exists, while sustained price pressures require the gap to disappear. 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paying jobs. This is a good thing because it helps narrow the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage levels and inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, rising wages; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary because the unemployment rate is still too high to generate sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has surged, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two prices fall, inflation expectations will also subside; 10. Historically, inflation expectations have only risen after real inflation has remained high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there really is a problem, the bond market will tell us everything. 12. Ignoring rough surveys on inflation expectations, surveys of professional economists still believe that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's target in the long run. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that<b>The market believes that \"there is no need to worry about inflation being too high, because the Federal Reserve can do everything it can to rate hike to cool it down.\"</b></p><p>In response, the financial blog Zero Hedge sarcastically remarked: \"The Federal Reserve is very successful; it can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also cause the US stock market to collapse within 15 minutes.\"</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the market's views above still have some merit. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to consider all recent inflation problems as \"temporary\". The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also stated that this possibility becomes extremely high, given that U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have already indicated through words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the coming years.</p><p>Bank of America also disagrees with the claim that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close Pandora's box of high inflation.\"</p><p>We have never had sustained high inflation in recent decades.<b>However, history shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has pledged that rate hike will arrive later than usual and will only rate hike if they believe that higher inflation is already entrenched in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Federal Reserve's current policy strategy is making rate hike increasingly difficult. However, if an unexpected event occurs and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hints, then it will be too late for the market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 11:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve can indeed easily control high inflation, as the market believes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Close the magic box? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.\" US inflation has skyrocketed again, but the market seems fearless, with both US stocks and Treasuries surging. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Federal Reserve's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily rising.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer, however, stated bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is now being laid.</b></p><p>Bank of America stated that while U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, the market not only failed to recognize the inflation risks implied by a series of indicators, but also had a long list of excuses for ignoring inflation signs:</p><p>1. The labor shortage will disappear in the fall, when unemployment benefits will decrease, childcare will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting the coronavirus at work will also subside. 2. The bottlenecks in commodity production are caused by special shocks. As production recovers and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease, and commodity demand growth slows, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated. 4. The price increase is purely temporary and targets specific industries. As supply recovers, the upward trend will also fade; 5. By definition, any aspect of price inflation is a temporary rise because the output gap still exists, while sustained price pressures require the gap to disappear. 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paying jobs. This is a good thing because it helps narrow the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage levels and inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, rising wages; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary because the unemployment rate is still too high to generate sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has surged, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two prices fall, inflation expectations will also subside; 10. Historically, inflation expectations have only risen after real inflation has remained high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there really is a problem, the bond market will tell us everything. 12. Ignoring rough surveys on inflation expectations, surveys of professional economists still believe that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's target in the long run. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that<b>The market believes that \"there is no need to worry about inflation being too high, because the Federal Reserve can do everything it can to rate hike to cool it down.\"</b></p><p>In response, the financial blog Zero Hedge sarcastically remarked: \"The Federal Reserve is very successful; it can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also cause the US stock market to collapse within 15 minutes.\"</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the market's views above still have some merit. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to consider all recent inflation problems as \"temporary\". The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also stated that this possibility becomes extremely high, given that U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have already indicated through words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the coming years.</p><p>Bank of America also disagrees with the claim that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close Pandora's box of high inflation.\"</p><p>We have never had sustained high inflation in recent decades.<b>However, history shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has pledged that rate hike will arrive later than usual and will only rate hike if they believe that higher inflation is already entrenched in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Federal Reserve's current policy strategy is making rate hike increasingly difficult. However, if an unexpected event occurs and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hints, then it will be too late for the market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。\n然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！\n在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险，反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口：\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n\n\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n\n\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n\n\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n\n\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？\nMeyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：\n\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外，美联储已经承诺，加息将比常态情况下来得更晚，且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着，美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难，但如果有意外发生，加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早，那么对于市场而言，一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}