To The Moon

Looking at the trend of American natural gas market this year, it can start from 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused the imbalance between global natural gas supply and demand, which caused the natural gas price to soar, and then returned to normal in 2023. This process is expected to continue in 2024 and continue to dominate the natural gas price movement.So what problems should we pay attention to in the process of trading natural gas in 2024?1. Macroclimate and microclimate: Macroclimate is what we usually call the global medium and long-term climate pattern, such as the obvious El Ni ñ o climate pattern last year. Microclimate is the occasional sudden change of climate in the macro climate environment, such as the temporary cold in the United States after the unpr

CME group special commentator Kou JianIn 2023, WTI crude oil price fluctuated in a zigzag shape for a whole year between US $63 and US $95 under the influence of various factors. Before we bid farewell to 2023 and usher in 2024, what factors should we pay special attention to in crude oil trading?1. The relationship between supply and demand, especially the domestic demand for crude oil and the import volume.Domestic demand for crude oil has been in a slow downward trend after setting an all-time high of 10,000,000 barrels a day in 2021 (Figure 1). Is the rapid development of renewable new energy in China in recent years the real end of the demand for crude oil? At present, we can't draw a conclusion too early, so paying close attention to the domestic crude oil import volume in 2024 is an

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th

CME group special commentator Kou JianA new round of military conflict broke out between Israel and Palestine on October 7, local time, which gave a short-term boost to crude oil prices, which was quite different from the previous trend in less than 10 days from September 27 to October 6. At that time, the price of American oil (WTI) dropped sharply from the highest point of 95 US dollars this year to 81 US dollars, which shocked the world.What caused the sharp drop in crude oil prices this time, and what will happen to crude oil prices next?On September 27th, the price of US crude oil reached US $95, and the inflation in the United States remained high. The Federal Reserve went all out to raise interest rates, and claimed that the whole rate hike operation would not be completed until the

In the past two weeks, some changes in the macro world have exerted a strong influence on the price changes of crude oil market. It is embodied in two things. First, the Federal Reserve issued a strong hawkish police; Second, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) declared bankruptcy.On March 6th, the Federal Reserve said that it underestimated the intractability of inflation, and the crude oil market turned around and fell, changing the upward direction of prices brought about by the hope of domestic economic recovery. The next day, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the largest venture capital bank in the United States, experienced a run on the market, and the crude oil market continued to fall. On March 10th, the federal government took over Silicon Valley Bank, and the downward trend of crude oil price tem

For traders who are good at trend trading, the crude oil market in 2023 may be a very difficult year.Is 2023 a volatile market?The reason why it seems to come to this conclusion too early is that in February 2022, due to geopolitical reasons, WTI crude oil market created a high price of $130 for many years. According to the market price trend pattern, the following year 2023 may be a stage of price adjustment. That is, we usually call the volatile market. This volatile market is the most difficult for traders who are good at trend trading.In addition, this year's macro environment is full of many very influential variables. These variables may contain the movement of crude oil prices from all directions.Six factors affecting crude oil marketLast Thursday, Feb. 10, we had a look at the imme

The United States is currently the world's largest producer of natural gas and exporter of liquefied natural gas. Compared with Russia, which ranks second in natural gas production in the United States, the relationship between natural gas production in the United States is 1.45 to 1. (See Figure 1)Figure 1: The United States and Russia are the two largest natural gas producers in the world​​The main natural gas producing areas in the United States are concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains in the east (the birthplace of shale gas) and Texas and the Gulf of Mexico in the southeast (the birthplace of shale oil). Dense natural gas pipelines (the blue line in Figure 2) connect natural gas producing areas with major natural gas consumption centers.Figure 2: U.S. Gas Pipeline Network and Loc

On December 22nd, the United States released the gross national economic product (GDP) data for the third quarter. Data show that the US GDP grew by 3.2% in the third quarter. It was much higher than the expected growth of 2.9%.More importantly, although the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States has been increasing interest rates substantially in 2022, in the third quarter, personal consumption in the United States not only did not decrease, but increased by 2.3%. This data surprised almost all economists.When the news of the good economic situation came, the American stock market plunged sharply. Bulls in American stock markets around the world were caught off guard.US GDP growth is higher than expected, facing the Fed's tightening policy?Prior to this, Wall Street investment banks an

On December 9th, the lowest trading price of the main contract of crude oil (WTI) futures owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange was US $70.08, which was the biggest decline of US crude oil in a week since April this year and the lowest price since the high price of US $130 was created in February this year.Since February this year, after the US crude oil price exceeded US $130, I have repeatedly stressed that US $130 is the highest price of US crude oil this year. Since then, the US crude oil price will slowly drop to around US $65.Medium and long-term investors should pay attention to: diesel price and premium statusThe US crude oil price on December 9th is very close to the personal crude oil buying price target. Now, with a tentative small investment in crude oil, medium and long-term in