To The Moon

From Leaders to Laggards: Is Memory Waiting on Micron? Memory gave back Tuesday's gains on Wednesday. SanDisk fell 3.73%, SK Hynix 3.12% and Micron 2.22%. The selling carried on into Thursday's pre-market, then all three bounced on Friday as oil eased after the Trump–Xi meeting. They fell together and bounced together, so this is one trade, not three. The real test is Micron's report after the close on September 30, which is about 4 AM on October 1 in Singapore. Wall Street expects $50.91 billion in revenue and $31.49 in earnings per share. Management guided about 86% gross margin, but also said price increases are moderating. The quarter also has 14 weeks, one more than usual. Bull case: 16 take-or-pay contracts lock in about $100 billion through 2030. HBM4 has already shipped over $1 bil

Memory Crushed, AI Chips Rallied. Is Semiconductor Money Rotating Internally? The Answer Came Three Days Later Written Saturday 17 Oct, SGT, using Friday's US closes. First, check the date on the numbers The figures in this topic are real, but they come from Tuesday, Oct 13. That day Nvidia closed up 0.97% at $228.52, AMD rose 1.90% to $605.53 and Intel gained 1.44% to $102.81. Micron fell 3.62% to $953.19, its fourth straight loss, after China's CXMT said it plans to launch a 4F2 DDR5 server memory module by year-end. On that one session, it did look like rotation: money leaving memory and moving into compute. Now look at what happened over the next three sessions. The scoreboard: Tuesday close to Friday close - Nvidia: $228.52 to $214.13, -6.30% - Micron: $953.19 to $878.84, -7.80% - Bro

CXMT Targets Server Memory: Is the Memory Repricing Done? Here's What the Numbers Say, and Why I'm Not Selling Puts Yet Written Friday 16 Oct, SGT, after Thursday's US session. Last weekend in Shanghai, CXMT president Cao Kanyu said China's largest DRAM maker plans to launch a DDR5 RDIMM server module built on its new 4F² cell design by the end of 2026. A 4F² cell takes up roughly a third less area than the 6F² design the industry still uses, so you get more memory per chip. CXMT says it holds more than 300 patent families on the architecture. That's the headline. Here's what wasn't said: no speed, no capacity, no yield and no volume. It's a product launch target, not a commitment to mass production or to qualification at the big server platforms. The market didn't wait for the details. Fr

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$   UnitedHealth: profit is up 52% while revenue and membership shrink UNH is not on my watchlist, so I ran the gates for information only. UnitedHealth had a bad 2025, and 2026 is a profit recovery. Q3, reported on 13 Oct, was profit up and revenue down. Revenue was $112.7B against $113.2B a year earlier, down 0.4%, but above estimates. Earnings from operations were $6.6B against $4.3B. Adjusted EPS was $4.69 against $2.92, up 61%, versus about $4.15 expected. The medical care ratio, the share of premiums paid out in claims, fell to 88.4% from 89.9%. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance went to at least $20.50 from $19.50–20.00. The stock closed at $406.67 on 15 Oct, up 23.2% this year and 11.9% below its 52-week high of $461.62.

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$   a 15% loan yield, a 15.5% one-day drop, and a correction to my own earlier call CoreWeave fell 15.46% on 14 Oct to $65.78, on about 107M shares against a three-month average near 29.5M. Nothing in the business changed that day. What moved was the price of its debt. There were four triggers. A chart on 13 Oct showed one CoreWeave loan quoted near a 15% yield, up from about 9% this summer. CreditSights said its unsecured bond yields had risen to nearly 15%. Gartner predicted that 80% of "neoclouds" could disappear by 2030. And hotter September inflation lifted yields across the market. The 15% figure is as reported, and I couldn't verify it independently. The business is still growing fast. Q2 revenue was $2.6B, up 112

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$   a rates shock, a short-seller dispute, and why my trend gate stops the trade SoFi fell 6.7% on 14 Oct to $14.22, a new 52-week low, on about 91M shares, roughly double normal volume. September inflation came in hotter than forecast and pushed yields up. Robinhood fell 8.5%, Affirm about 9.5% and the S&P 500 1.1%, so it was a sector move. The stock is now 56.6% below its 52-week high of $32.73. The business is still growing fast. Q2 GAAP net revenue was $1.218B, up 43%, and net income was $156.6M, up 61%. Deposits are $45.5B, up $5.3B in the quarter, and members are 15.8M. The personal-loan charge-off rate fell to 3.7% from 4.5%. The stock trades at 1.95× tangible book. Two things weigh on it. SoFi carries

$ServiceNow(NOW)$  the cleanest sell-put setup on my list, with one gate that fails ServiceNow is the one name where my gates are nearly all green, and a single date holds me back. The business hasn't changed since my last review, but analysts have caught up. Stifel went to $160 from $120, UBS to $150 from $110, Argus to $170 from $134, and RBC to $176 from $130, all within a week. Consensus is $149.93, about 7.6% above the $138.61 close on 13 Oct. The numbers behind that are solid. Q2 subscription revenue was $3,877M, up 24.5%. Current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) were $13.20B, up 21%, and total contracted backlog is $29.0B. Trailing free cash flow is $4.57B, a 31% margin. The stock is 32

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$  Elite business, deepest point of the investment cycle, and why I'm not selling puts before the print Alphabet is two stories in one quarter. The operating business is excellent, and the cash story is the weakest it has been in a while. Q2 revenue was $119.8B, up 24%, with a 34% operating margin. Google Cloud grew 82% at a 35.6% margin, with $514B of contracted backlog, about five years of current revenue. Search grew 17%, so the AI-disruption bear case isn't in the numbers. The reported profit overstates it. Q2 GAAP EPS was $9.11, but $6.26 of that came from unrealised equity gains. On clean consensus EPS, Alphabet trades at 29.9× 2026 and 23.2× 2027, not the 17.7× on the screen.

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   Palantir: the best business in my series, at a price I won't sell puts into Nine days ago I'd have said Palantir was worth more than my gates allowed. Now the stock is above the analyst consensus target, and that settles it for me. The business hasn't changed since Q2. Revenue was $1.935B, up 93%. US commercial grew 149%, US government 90%, and the adjusted free cash flow margin was 63%. Net cash is $9.2B. My scorecard gives it 77/100, second of eighteen. The price is what moved. PLTR closed at $209.00 on 12 Oct, up 10.7% in nine days. It sits 2.8% above the 32-analyst target of $203.35, about 45% above OracleValue's $143.98, and at roughly 82× trailing sales. RSI is 76. At a normal 15–20× sales, $502B of

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$   Amazon: great business, heaviest spending cycle ever, and what it means for my sell puts Amazon is the strongest Tier 1 name I've scored so far, and I still won't sell a put on it today. The operating business is excellent. Q2 sales were $200.6B, up 20%, and operating income was $27.5B, up 43%. AWS grew 37%, its fastest since 2021, at a 39.4% margin. That's 21% of sales but about 60% of operating profit. The reported profit is a different story. Q2 net income was $62.6B, but $53.4B of pre-tax income was non-operating, mostly gains on the Anthropic stake. These are real but non-cash and can reverse. Strip them out and Amazon trades at about 31.6× 2026 and 25.1× 2027 earnings, not the 20× on the screen. Cash is the other wa

$NOW 20261016 130.0 PUT$