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Shyon

🎓 Mechanical Engineer 📦 SCM Certification 📊 Technical Analysis 🌏 Investor 🇺🇸🇸🇬🇲🇾🇭🇰 Tesla

    • ShyonShyon
      ·18:28
      For me, the most useful takeaway is that headlines can hide what is really happening underneath. The labor market is a good example. Positive NFP can still mask weakness in white-collar sectors, so I prefer looking at the details rather than relying only on the headline. I also agree that the Fed and 30-year Treasury yield should be watched together. A Fed cut does not automatically mean long-term yields will fall, especially with inflation, debt and bond supply still important. If the two signals diverge, I would rather stay patient than make an aggressive trade. The calm VIX with large individual stock moves is also interesting. Even when the S&P 500 looks stable, individual names can still move significantly. For my approach, that means focusing more on company fundamentals and val
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·18:27
      For me, the 25bp hike is already largely priced in, so the real focus is on Warsh’s guidance and the dot plot. I want to see whether the Fed treats this as a one-off adjustment or signals that more tightening may be needed. The direction of the 2026 and 2027 rate projections could matter more than the hike itself. I am also watching the 10-year Treasury yield closely. If the Fed stays hawkish and yields move back above 5%, high-growth tech and other long-duration assets could face more valuation pressure. The dollar could strengthen as well, while gold and Bitcoin may become more volatile depending on liquidity and risk sentiment. Personally, I am not planning to react aggressively to the headline rate decision. I would rather wait for the dot plot and press conference before making any c
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·18:23
      For me, the 25bp hike is no longer the main story because it is largely priced in. I am more interested in the dot plot and how Chair Warsh frames the path ahead. If the Fed signals higher-for-longer rates, growth stocks and semiconductors could face renewed valuation pressure. My base case remains 25bp, but I am watching whether the 2026 and 2027 rate paths move higher. If the dot plot stays contained and guidance remains data-dependent, the market could see a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction. A higher rate path, however, could keep Treasury yields and the dollar firm. Personally, I am not making a major move based on the headline alone. I would rather wait for the dot plot and press conference before deciding whether this is another tightening cycle or simply a one-off adjustment
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·01:04
      $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ I am continuing to collect ARM at this stage because the recent pullback is giving me a much better technical entry point. The share price has moved back toward the EMA200, which is an area I like to watch for longer-term positions. I do not see this pullback as a reason to abandon the thesis. Instead, it gives me an opportunity to build my position gradually rather than chasing strength. For me, the combination of a key technical support area and a long-term semiconductor growth story makes the risk-reward more interesting here. Fundamentally, Arm is becoming much more than a smartphone chip-IP company. Its royalty business continues to benefit from the wider adoption of Armv9, while data-center royalties are becoming an i
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 21:46
      I agree most with the bullish view on $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ . AI infrastructure remains a strong long-term theme for me, and its potential recurring-revenue growth makes the $355 target interesting. I am holding NBIS for the mid-to-long term, focusing more on execution and contract growth than short-term price moves. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ also stands out. Its huge user base and advertising business give it multiple ways to monetize AI investments. The $820 target is aggressive, but stronger AI adoption could justify higher expectations. I am more cautious on $Novo-Nordisk A/S(<
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 18:37
      I would choose ②. As AI agents become more connected to enterprise systems, identity and permissions could become a major security challenge. Companies will need to know which AI agent is acting, what it can access, and what actions it can take. I still like the broader cybersecurity story because AI deployment creates new security needs. CRWD, PANW and ZS could benefit if AI security becomes a bigger budget item, but I would not chase a double-digit rally. I want to see actual ARR growth and enterprise spending first. For me, the key question is whether AI security becomes a standard part of enterprise AI. If companies increase spending on identity, data protection and agent monitoring, cybersecurity could become another essential layer of the AI infrastructure stack.

      Could Security Be AI’s Biggest “Second-Order” Trade?

      @Tiger_comments：
      U.S. markets showed a striking divergence overnight. As investors worried that calls to slow frontier AI development could eventually cool spending on GPUs, HBM and data centers, semiconductor names came under pressure. At the same time, cybersecurity stocks surged. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler and Fortinet all moved sharply higher. The same “AI risk” narrative was hitting chips while pushing security software into the spotlight. The more important takeaway is not simply that money rotated from hardware into software. The bigger question is whether cybersecurity is becoming a mandatory layer of AI CapEx. Once AI agents start connecting to email, code repositories, databases, CRM systems and payment tools, AI is no longer just reading information. It can call tools, modify files
      Could Security Be AI’s Biggest “Second-Order” Trade?
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 18:09
      I would choose C. I remain bullish on AI infrastructure because slowing frontier-model development does not mean companies will suddenly stop investing in chips, memory, data centers and power. The existing AI workloads still need to be supported, and enterprise adoption is still developing. I would not blindly follow the $315 million options trade either. Even if Leopold is behind it, large funds have different risk tolerance and strategies from retail investors. I see the trade as a useful signal, but not a reason to chase AI stocks after a sharp move. With Triple Witching this Friday, I would expect more short-term volatility. I would rather use any excessive pullback to gradually DCA into strong AI infrastructure names than try to predict every move. For me, the long-term AI story rem
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 17:10
      For me, Monday looks more like a rotation than a real change in the AI story. The market is questioning how fast AI training spending can grow, which explains the sharp selloff in memory and semiconductors. But a few comments about slowing frontier AI development are not enough to invalidate the huge AI infrastructure investments already underway. I find the cybersecurity move more interesting. The more AI systems and agents enter production, the more security and monitoring they will need. That makes CRWD and PANW interesting to me, although after such a strong one-day rally, I would rather wait for a better entry than chase. I am also watching the 10-year yield and oil closely because they are more immediate valuation risks. If yields stay near 5%, high-growth AI stocks could face more
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 16:49
      For me, $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ and $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ stand out the most. AI growth is creating more demand for cybersecurity and connectivity infrastructure. CRWD has strong ARR growth and cash flow, while NET benefits from rising AI workloads. I would rather watch these names than chase the energy rally after such a strong run. I am also watching $Marathon Petroleum(MPC)$ and $Valero(VLO
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    • ShyonShyon
      ·09-15 14:06
      For me, today’s selloff looks more like a repricing than a sign that the AI cycle is over. If frontier model development slows, I think AI spending could simply shift from training the next massive model toward inference and deploying existing models at scale. I am especially watching AI agents and inference demand. As companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta integrate AI deeper into everyday workflows, the demand for GPUs, HBM, networking and data-center power could remain strong. In some ways, broader inference adoption could create an even wider market than frontier training. That said, I would not ignore valuation risk. If cloud companies start cutting capex while GPU utilization, HBM orders and networking demand weaken together, that would be a much more serious warning. For
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