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AK91
AK91
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2021-06-20
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Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic
Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.
Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic
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AK91
AK91
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2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
三孩生育政策爆笑段子彙總
@骚话连篇:
今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一,無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃,思路非常廣泛,當然,比思路更廣泛的是表情包,潛水一下午收購不少,逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上(指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE,參與《老虎大搜查》活動,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣,如集齊7張圖片並留言,還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。(詳情請點擊【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查 瞭解)
三孩生育政策爆笑段子彙總
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AK91
AK91
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2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
Learning from history: the deduction and impact of soaring US inflation
美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。
Learning from history: the deduction and impact of soaring US inflation
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AK91
AK91
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2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
One chart to understand Didi's prospectus: Spread across 15 countries, averaging 41 million orders per day.
6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。
One chart to understand Didi's prospectus: Spread across 15 countries, averaging 41 million orders per day.
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AK91
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2021-06-10
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Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows
Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu
Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows
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The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. 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The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188968632,"gmtCreate":1623419628426,"gmtModify":1704203167263,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581856277356895","authorIdStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188968632","repostId":"110267641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110267641,"gmtCreate":1622461531680,"gmtModify":1704184732139,"author":{"id":"3539180379992057","authorId":"3539180379992057","name":"骚话连篇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539180379992057","authorIdStr":"3539180379992057"},"themes":[],"title":"三孩生育政策爆笑段子彙總","htmlText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一,無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃,思路非常廣泛,當然,比思路更廣泛的是表情包,潛水一下午收購不少,逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上(指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE,參與《老虎大搜查》活動,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣,如集齊7張圖片並留言,還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。(詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解)","listText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一,無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃,思路非常廣泛,當然,比思路更廣泛的是表情包,潛水一下午收購不少,逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上(指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE,參與《老虎大搜查》活動,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣,如集齊7張圖片並留言,還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。(詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解)","text":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一,無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃,思路非常廣泛,當然,比思路更廣泛的是表情包,潛水一下午收購不少,逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上(指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE,參與《老虎大搜查》活動,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣,如集齊7張圖片並留言,還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。(詳情請點擊【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查 瞭解)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12c29d23ac709607d32424e7bc1bb84b","width":"936","height":"755"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0000e466c06eeada1808a8b608b34b2","width":"1080","height":"310"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188969132,"gmtCreate":1623419546126,"gmtModify":1704203163035,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581856277356895","authorIdStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188969132","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from history: the deduction and impact of soaring US inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released its May inflation data.<b>The U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. inflation rate has accelerated, and with the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting approaching, inflation concerns persist in the market.</b>We reviewed several surges in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times.</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy during the period when the CPI broke through 4%, 5%, and then declined (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>The economy fell into recession, but the lingering effects of previous massive government spending and fiscal stimulus remained, inflation continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>Under the dual impact of the food and oil crises, the US economy has fallen into stagflation, with supply shocks and costs pushing up inflation. Government price controls failed, and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging, failing to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but starting in 1987, the economic growth rate slowed down, and upward pressure on wages and prices emerged, prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The Federal Reserve's primary task in monetary policy was to rescue the market, while inflation was not its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are quite similar to those of 1973-1982; both are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation is the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>In May of this year, the US CPI recorded 5.0% (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound annual growth rate in May 2021 compared to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the performance of inflation this year, we are focusing on two sub-sectors: used cars and rents.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>As the COVID-19 pandemic worsens in Southeast Asia, chip manufacturers in many regions have shut down, leading to chip shortages and reduced production by automakers. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has surged, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars exceeded that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, the increase in other transportation-related prices further widened in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding from 5.6% in April to 11.2%, more than doubling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rent price trends have a significant impact on the future development of inflation.</b>Rent accounts for a relatively high weight in the US CPI (approximately 30%). Although rent growth is relatively moderate compared to other components (up 2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to supply shortages.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the expected trend of inflation?</b></p><p>From a consumer's perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, U.S. consumers' five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% the previous month (Figure 5), but were still below the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve could tolerate.</b></p><p>From a policymaker's perspective, as mentioned in our previous report, the Federal Reserve focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, with key indicators being:<b>The Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which is quarterly data, is expected to be released by the end of this month for the second quarter of 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We conducted a review on the changes in the yields of the US dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds over different time periods after the CPI broke through 4% in the four major inflationary events mentioned above (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks; the former is relatively lagging behind, while the latter becomes apparent within a month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US Treasury yields is irregular. For a research framework on US Treasury yields, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy too quickly, exacerbating geopolitical risks.</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E! Participate in the \"Tiger Search\" event. Leave a comment below saying \"Tiger is here\" to receive 100 Tiger Coins. If you collect all 7 pictures and leave a comment, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited edition gift box. (Click for details)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Prize Giveaway] Tiger Search</a>understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from history: the deduction and impact of soaring US inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from history: the deduction and impact of soaring US inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released its May inflation data.<b>The U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. inflation rate has accelerated, and with the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting approaching, inflation concerns persist in the market.</b>We reviewed several surges in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times.</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy during the period when the CPI broke through 4%, 5%, and then declined (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>The economy fell into recession, but the lingering effects of previous massive government spending and fiscal stimulus remained, inflation continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>Under the dual impact of the food and oil crises, the US economy has fallen into stagflation, with supply shocks and costs pushing up inflation. Government price controls failed, and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging, failing to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but starting in 1987, the economic growth rate slowed down, and upward pressure on wages and prices emerged, prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The Federal Reserve's primary task in monetary policy was to rescue the market, while inflation was not its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are quite similar to those of 1973-1982; both are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation is the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>In May of this year, the US CPI recorded 5.0% (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound annual growth rate in May 2021 compared to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the performance of inflation this year, we are focusing on two sub-sectors: used cars and rents.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>As the COVID-19 pandemic worsens in Southeast Asia, chip manufacturers in many regions have shut down, leading to chip shortages and reduced production by automakers. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has surged, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars exceeded that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, the increase in other transportation-related prices further widened in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding from 5.6% in April to 11.2%, more than doubling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rent price trends have a significant impact on the future development of inflation.</b>Rent accounts for a relatively high weight in the US CPI (approximately 30%). Although rent growth is relatively moderate compared to other components (up 2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to supply shortages.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the expected trend of inflation?</b></p><p>From a consumer's perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, U.S. consumers' five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% the previous month (Figure 5), but were still below the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve could tolerate.</b></p><p>From a policymaker's perspective, as mentioned in our previous report, the Federal Reserve focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, with key indicators being:<b>The Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which is quarterly data, is expected to be released by the end of this month for the second quarter of 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We conducted a review on the changes in the yields of the US dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds over different time periods after the CPI broke through 4% in the four major inflationary events mentioned above (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks; the former is relatively lagging behind, while the latter becomes apparent within a month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US Treasury yields is irregular. For a research framework on US Treasury yields, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy too quickly, exacerbating geopolitical risks.</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E! Participate in the \"Tiger Search\" event. Leave a comment below saying \"Tiger is here\" to receive 100 Tiger Coins. If you collect all 7 pictures and leave a comment, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited edition gift box. (Click for details)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Prize Giveaway] Tiger Search</a>understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188982564,"gmtCreate":1623419448758,"gmtModify":1704203156154,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581856277356895","authorIdStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188982564","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One chart to understand Didi's prospectus: Spread across 15 countries, averaging 41 million orders per day.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11 news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operator of the company, has filed an IPO prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to data disclosed by Didi, Didi currently operates in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with 493 million annual active users, 15 million annual active drivers, an average daily order volume of 41 million, an annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver revenue of over 600 billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I! Participate in the \"Tiger Search\" event. Leave a comment below saying \"Tiger is here\" to receive 100 Tiger Coins. If you collect all 7 pictures and leave a comment, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited edition gift box. (Click for details)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Prize Giveaway] Tiger Search</a>understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One chart to understand Didi's prospectus: Spread across 15 countries, averaging 41 million orders per day.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne chart to understand Didi's prospectus: Spread across 15 countries, averaging 41 million orders per day.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11 news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operator of the company, has filed an IPO prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to data disclosed by Didi, Didi currently operates in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with 493 million annual active users, 15 million annual active drivers, an average daily order volume of 41 million, an annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver revenue of over 600 billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I! Participate in the \"Tiger Search\" event. Leave a comment below saying \"Tiger is here\" to receive 100 Tiger Coins. If you collect all 7 pictures and leave a comment, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited edition gift box. (Click for details)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Prize Giveaway] Tiger Search</a>understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183348107,"gmtCreate":1623311086409,"gmtModify":1704200608462,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581856277356895","authorIdStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183348107","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127298356?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame - it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like. And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate. This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show? Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame - it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like. And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate. This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show? Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}