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Cjchow1919

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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-14
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  Pre-market: WSB retail investors are looking for another new favorite! A gaming equipment company skyrockets 24%
  6月14日，美国三大股指涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货微跌0.02%；标普500指数期货微涨0.06%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.3%。盘前行情区块链概念股盘前走高，Riot Blockchai
  Pre-market: WSB retail investors are looking for another new favorite! A gaming equipment company skyrockets 24%
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-14
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-07
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-06
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  Four Dark Logics of China's Internet: Each One Subverts Cognition
  在中国互联网发展的短短20多年中，早已经历过多轮沧海桑田的变迁。从门户时代到Web2.0，从PC互联网到移动互联网再到产业互联网......在此过程中，行业的从业者和投资者其实一直在总结关于这个行业的
  Four Dark Logics of China's Internet: Each One Subverts Cognition
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-05
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-05
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-04
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-03
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- Cjchow1919Cjchow1919
  ·2021-06-01
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A gaming equipment company skyrockets 24%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139278478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月14日，美国三大股指涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货微跌0.02%；标普500指数期货微涨0.06%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.3%。\n\n盘前行情\n区块链概念股盘前走高，Riot Blockchai","content":"<p>On June 14th, the three major stock indexes in the United States had mixed gains and losses. As of press time, the Dow futures fell slightly by 0.02%; S&P 500 futures rose slightly by 0.06%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04060f0e8b5352521e4929e6d3c30d31\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">EBON INTERNATIONAL</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p>WSB New Love<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">Corsair Gaming</a>It rose by more than 24% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">Senseonics</a>It rose more than 14% before the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>It rose by more than 8% before the market, and the protection rate of Novavax COVID-19 vaccine against moderate diseases was 100%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>It fell more than 14% premarket, and the company announced the resignation of its CEO and CFO.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It fell nearly 6% before the market, and closed up nearly 96% on the first day of listing, with a total market value of nearly $15 billion.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.19%, and French CAC40 rose 0.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab9347fdbb0afdf169514d3be58177\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>The US and Brunei oil continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose by 0.92% to $71.56/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.92% to $73.36/barrel.</p><p>The demand outlook improved, supported by increased coronavirus vaccinations that helped lift travel restrictions, although oil prices gave up some of their gains after Iran announced a broad agreement with the US on lifting energy sanctions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f191b968fea5568e78c2597d5cfe7a4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e454121b5f113185830f26b15576a4e\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold fell during the day, down 1.44% to $1,852.6/oz as of press time.</p><p>The price of gold is lower mainly because the market has shifted its focus to this week's Fed resolution, and the market is cautious about the possibility of the Fed discussing reducing bond purchases this week. Previously, many bull speculators began to reduce their positions before the Fed resolution, thus putting pressure on the price of gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dcc3ac6a78bbed33e1f5e139c814d24\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: WSB retail investors are looking for another new favorite! A gaming equipment company skyrockets 24%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: WSB retail investors are looking for another new favorite! A gaming equipment company skyrockets 24%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 20:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 14th, the three major stock indexes in the United States had mixed gains and losses. As of press time, the Dow futures fell slightly by 0.02%; S&P 500 futures rose slightly by 0.06%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04060f0e8b5352521e4929e6d3c30d31\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">EBON INTERNATIONAL</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p>WSB New Love<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">Corsair Gaming</a>It rose by more than 24% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">Senseonics</a>It rose more than 14% before the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>It rose by more than 8% before the market, and the protection rate of Novavax COVID-19 vaccine against moderate diseases was 100%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>It fell more than 14% premarket, and the company announced the resignation of its CEO and CFO.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Direct hiring by BOSS</a>It fell nearly 6% before the market, and closed up nearly 96% on the first day of listing, with a total market value of nearly $15 billion.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.19%, and French CAC40 rose 0.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab9347fdbb0afdf169514d3be58177\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>The US and Brunei oil continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose by 0.92% to $71.56/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.92% to $73.36/barrel.</p><p>The demand outlook improved, supported by increased coronavirus vaccinations that helped lift travel restrictions, although oil prices gave up some of their gains after Iran announced a broad agreement with the US on lifting energy sanctions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f191b968fea5568e78c2597d5cfe7a4\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e454121b5f113185830f26b15576a4e\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold fell during the day, down 1.44% to $1,852.6/oz as of press time.</p><p>The price of gold is lower mainly because the market has shifted its focus to this week's Fed resolution, and the market is cautious about the possibility of the Fed discussing reducing bond purchases this week. Previously, many bull speculators began to reduce their positions before the Fed resolution, thus putting pressure on the price of gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dcc3ac6a78bbed33e1f5e139c814d24\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"SOS":"SOS Limited",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","SENS":"Senseonics Holdings,Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","09996":"沛嘉医疗-B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139278478","content_text":"6月14日，美国三大股指涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货微跌0.02%；标普500指数期货微涨0.06%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.3%。\n\n盘前行情\n区块链概念股盘前走高，Riot Blockchain涨超8%，Marathon Digital涨超7%，Bit Digital涨近6%，嘉楠科技涨超5%，亿邦国际涨超4%，SOS涨超3%。\nWSB新欢Corsair Gaming盘前涨超24%，Senseonics盘前涨超14%。\n诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前涨超8%，诺瓦瓦克斯新冠肺炎疫苗针对中症的保护率为100%。\nLordstown Motors盘前跌超14%，公司宣布首席执行官和首席财务官辞职。\nBOSS直聘盘前跌近6%，上市首日收涨近96%，总市值近150亿美元。\n欧洲市场\n欧洲主要股指全线上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.15%，英国富时100涨0.19%、法国CAC40涨0.1%。\n\n原油\n美、布两油持续拉升，截止发稿，WTI原油涨0.92%，报71.56美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.92%，报73.36美元/桶。\n受新冠病毒疫苗接种增加有助于解除旅游限制，需求前景改善的支撑，不过伊朗宣布与美国就解除能源制裁达成广泛协议后，油价回吐部分涨幅。\n\n黄金\n现货黄金日内走低，截止发稿，跌1.44%，报1852.6美元/盎司。\n金价走低，主要因为市场已经把焦点转移到本周美联储决议，且市场对美联储本周讨论缩减购债的可能保持谨慎，此前很多多头投机者在美联储决议之前开始减少头寸，从而给金价带来压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"CRSR":0.9,"09997":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"09996":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"SENS":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"SOS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185757445,"gmtCreate":1623675449887,"gmtModify":1704208350267,"author":{"id":"3585296026947269","authorId":"3585296026947269","name":"Cjchow1919","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36eec2d2d76622a04377970dc70d359e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585296026947269","authorIdStr":"3585296026947269"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and share","listText":"like and share","text":"like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185757445","repostId":"1102714025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114695542,"gmtCreate":1623071056486,"gmtModify":1704195409574,"author":{"id":"3585296026947269","authorId":"3585296026947269","name":"Cjchow1919","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36eec2d2d76622a04377970dc70d359e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585296026947269","authorIdStr":"3585296026947269"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114695542","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115177323,"gmtCreate":1622965285462,"gmtModify":1704193896333,"author":{"id":"3585296026947269","authorId":"3585296026947269","name":"Cjchow1919","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36eec2d2d76622a04377970dc70d359e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585296026947269","authorIdStr":"3585296026947269"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115177323","repostId":"1163908633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163908633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622948959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163908633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Four Dark Logics of China's Internet: Each One Subverts Cognition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163908633","media":"卫夕指北","summary":"在中国互联网发展的短短20多年中，早已经历过多轮沧海桑田的变迁。从门户时代到Web2.0，从PC互联网到移动互联网再到产业互联网......在此过程中，行业的从业者和投资者其实一直在总结关于这个行业的","content":"<p><b>In the short 20 years since the development of the Internet in China, it has already undergone many rounds of profound changes.</b></p><p>From the portal era to Web 2.0, from the PC internet to the mobile internet and then to the industrial internet...</p><p>In this process, industry practitioners and investors have been summarizing the logic and patterns of the industry. Indeed, many of these patterns and logic have been generally proven to be effective.</p><p><b>However, what I want to talk about today are actually four exceptional dark logics.</b></p><p>I call them dark logic because their opposites are usually true, and the interesting thing about the internet is that:<b>There is no universal theorem that applies everywhere; a closer look at any major logic will reveal exceptions.</b></p><p>Here are four exceptional hidden logics of the Chinese internet that I have summarized—</p><p><b>1. A company with a competitive advantage is not necessarily a good company.</b></p><p><b>The theory of a company's competitive advantage originated from Warren Buffett's discussion of whether a company has an advantage that other companies cannot surpass.</b></p><p>Later, in his book \"Buffett's Moat,\" Pat Dorsey summarized moats into four categories: 1. A company's intangible assets, such as brands and patents; 2. High conversion costs; 3. Cost advantage; 4. Network effect;</p><p>We usually believe that companies that have one or more of the above four types of advantages have a competitive advantage. A competitive advantage is certainly very important. However, if a company has a competitive advantage, is it necessarily a good company worth investing in?</p><p>The answer is not necessarily.</p><p>Weibo is a very typical example.</p><p><b>Today, most people would actually admit that Weibo has a competitive advantage.</b>—As a communication platform, it is the first battleground for the fermentation of any news and current event; As an entertainment platform, it is the primary source of support for fans pursuing celebrities; As a platform for influence, it also boasts the broadest and most diverse range of opinion leaders;</p><p><b>The almost monopolistic position of these three dimensions has never been shaken since the birth of Weibo. They are indispensable and irreplaceable, which is undoubtedly a moat.</b></p><p>However, would you dare to buy Weibo stock today?</p><p>I think at least many people wouldn't dare. According to the latest financial report, Weibo's monthly active users in Q1 2021 were 530 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and its daily active users were 230 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.</p><p>Despite the pandemic contributing to the high base last year, sluggish growth in Weibo users has become a highly probable event.</p><p>Without a new second curve, it will actually be difficult for it to gain more user time in the competition with strong companies such as ByteDance and Tencent.</p><p>The competitive moat is insufficient to protect Weibo.</p><p>An easy-to-understand logic is—<b>A moat can make it difficult for you to decline quickly, but it does not guarantee that you will continue to grow;</b></p><p>For internet companies, growth is always the top priority and the most important Achilles' heel.</p><p>There is no such thing as a one-time solution for internet companies. Those companies that eventually become giants are not actually new strategies, but rather continuously expand their operational radius and seize new territory. This is true for Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance.</p><p>Baidu, holding onto the search moat, is undoubtedly a temporary king. It has no rivals in this search track to date, but if its boundary expansion is even slightly slower, it will be ruthlessly squeezed out of the top group.</p><p><b>Another logic about moats is that you do have a moat in your field, but your field itself is no longer important.</b></p><p>Momo, Meitu, Douban, Tianya, Xunlei... all have extremely high competitive advantages in their respective fields. They have always held their own and have never been overturned by competitors. However, their respective fields have become less important. The competitive advantage remains, but the city is gone.</p><p><b>Therefore, the moat is important, but it is dangerous to be obsessed with the moat. Don't sleep on the moat.</b></p><p>In this sense, I am actually a little worried about Bilibili. The content production and consumption ecosystem formed by its strong stickiness to anime, manga, and young users is certainly its moat, which is indestructible. Xigua Video has failed to gain the upper hand despite its repeated strong attacks.</p><p><b>But can Bilibili always only tell this single story? Will its dream rate ultimately be realized?</b></p><p><b>Second, a large track is not necessarily a good track.</b></p><p>\"Investing in sectors\" is an extremely important school of thought in the field of internet investment, and its underlying logic is—<b>If a track is large enough, it will inevitably give rise to excellent companies, and as long as you invest in an excellent company in this track, you will definitely have long-term returns.</b></p><p>This logic is basically correct, or rather, it is largely correct; however, there are still some tracks that do not conform to this principle.</p><p>The reason is that these tracks are crowded and lack competitive advantage, and the fierce competition has no end in sight, which has made it difficult for their top players to obtain reasonable returns for a considerable period of time.</p><p><b>China's long-form video industry is a typical example.</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, this is a large track, with total annual revenue expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, which is quite large.</p><p>However, starting with Youku, a pioneer in 2006, the main players in this field have suffered losses for 15 consecutive years. For example, iQiyi had revenue of 29.7 billion yuan and a loss of 6 billion yuan in 2020. This achievement was achieved after a significant improvement.</p><p>Note that it is difficult to say that these losses are strategic losses. Even today, we still cannot see how long the losses in this field will continue or when the final outcome of the industry will be settled.</p><p><b>Yes, money is the only barrier in this industry.</b></p><p>LatePost previously reported on the competition between Youku and Tencent Video for \"Ruyi's Royal Love in the Palace\".</p><p>Originally, the two companies had agreed to pay 600 million yuan each to purchase the rights to broadcast the drama simultaneously on both platforms. However, after thinking it over, Tencent decided that the drama might become as popular as \"Empresses in the Palace\" and ultimately decided to acquire the exclusive broadcasting rights for a staggering 1.3 billion yuan.</p><p>This is a money-burning game. If only burning money alone could end wars, the key weakness of this industry lies in—<b>Money simply cannot buy user loyalty.</b></p><p>Some platforms spent over 1 billion yuan to buy the World Cup broadcasting rights, but once the World Cup is over, users are attracted away by the novelty of other platforms.</p><p>The big players in this industry are all fighting hard. Despite the huge losses, no one is willing to be the first to give up because they cannot ignore the exorbitant cost of submerging themselves, and they are all waiting for their competitors to be unable to withstand it and withdraw.</p><p>However, behind the three major platforms are BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent), each of which is financially powerful and unanimously believes that this is a war for positioning, and each of them is dreaming of becoming \"China's Netflix\".</p><p>Even if some players withdraw, since there are no other high barriers to entry, there will always be new players eyeing the market. The fact that Youku acquired Tudou in an attempt to unify the market but ultimately failed is a clear example.</p><p>That's right, a big track isn't necessarily a good track; the aviation industry is another example.</p><p>Warren Buffett has two famous quotes about the aviation industry—</p><p>The first sentence is:<i>\"If a capitalist had shot down the Wright brothers' plane before its first successful test flight in Little Eagle, North Carolina, investors around the world might have recovered a lot of their losses.\"</i></p><p>The second sentence is:<i>\"If you want to be a millionaire, you can become a multi-millionaire first, and then buy airline stocks.\"</i></p><p><b>So why is the aviation industry, which is a behemoth in terms of scale, not a good track?</b></p><p>The reason is that the aviation industry has four main characteristics: 1. High fixed costs and high debt ratio; 2. Product homogenization and weak premium power; 3. Consumers have many choices and extremely low brand loyalty; 4. The industry is highly cyclical and strongly influenced by the macroeconomy;</p><p>Based on the above characteristics, the aviation industry requires large investments, has highly volatile profit margins, and is highly competitive, making it difficult to achieve sustainable long-term competitiveness. As a result, Warren Buffett has repeatedly suffered setbacks in airline stocks.</p><p><b>Therefore, size is not the only indicator for measuring the quality of a track; growth and health are equally important.</b></p><p><b>Third, a company that leads in the early stages of a track may not be able to lead in the long term.</b></p><p>Let me start with an example to address this point.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, when new energy vehicle stocks were at their most frenzied, a friend told me that he had bought half of his working capital into the stocks of Nio, Li Auto, and XPeng.</p><p>I asked him about his investment logic, and he said—</p><p><i>“The eventual rise of China’s new energy is an extremely certain event, and I’m betting on these three currently leading companies. Of course, I don’t know who will ultimately win, but my logic is that one of them will definitely win. So as long as the stock price of the winning company triples, I won’t lose even if the other two go to zero and die.”</i></p><p>In a sense, I agree with his view, but I still kindly remind him that it is possible that the Chinese new energy company will not ultimately win among these three companies.</p><p>He said, \"I haven't thought about that; the possibility is relatively small.\"</p><p><b>I told him that the possibility was indeed relatively small, but not impossible, so I told him the story of the short video industry—</b></p><p>Around 2015 and 2016, the short video industry began to become lively, and investors began to judge that it was a fast-growing and large-scale sector. But which teams should they specifically invest in?</p><p>The market landscape at the time was that Miaopai was leading, Meipai was coming on strong, and Kuaishou was still a small company that had not entered the mainstream spotlight.</p><p>As a result, Miaopai, the leading company, became a hot commodity in the investment world. During that period, Miaopai's parent company, Yixia Technology, received five rounds of financing, with the last Series E financing reaching a scale of 500 million US dollars.</p><p>At the press conference for the Series E funding round, founder Han Kun's excitement was palpable.<i>\"Yixia Technology's video matrix has become the Chinese version of Youtube.\"</i></p><p>However, everyone knows what happened next: a year later, Douyin and Kuaishou rose to prominence, and Miaopai was powerless to resist and was quickly marginalized.</p><p>Another company that was photographed collapsing on the beach was the once-powerful Meipai.</p><p><b>Thus, neither of the two leading products in the short video industry, which had raised countless funds, emerged victorious.</b></p><p>Let's briefly explain the underlying logic: Early leading companies had different requirements for startup capabilities because the industry was not yet mature. This can also explain why Miaopai failed while Douyin succeeded.</p><p><b>There are certainly many reasons behind this, but one important perspective is the difference in their focus:</b></p><p>When Miaopai was born and developed, China's 4G was not yet particularly mature, so the technical requirements for how to play in different network environments were very high. Han Kun, the founder of Miaopai, has always been very proud of Miaopai's basic technical capabilities.</p><p>Before Miaopai was born, Han Kun led his team to develop a multimedia framework system called Vitamio, which was a video technology supplier for several internet companies.</p><p>In fact, one of the main reasons why Sina Weibo invested in Miaopai was that it valued its ability to largely address its shortcomings in video technology.</p><p><b>Therefore, in Han Kun's cognitive framework, technology is an important barrier, so he naturally pays less attention to other core variables that determine the real core of this track.</b></p><p>But by 2017, with the maturity of 4G and the decline in tariffs, technological barriers had proven to be fragile. Recommendation algorithms and content production ecosystems had become the true core competitiveness of short videos. In a sense, the outcome of this war may have been predetermined from the beginning.</p><p><b>Therefore, investing in early-stage leading companies in a sector is certainly not wrong, but it is also necessary to consider whether the core logic of this sector will change, and whether the core elements required after the changes are truly possessed by the current leading companies.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the founder does not fully represent the company's competitiveness.</b></p><p>As mentioned above, one important school of thought in the investment field is investing in sectors, while another important school of thought is investing in people. Some VCs have their eye on someone and will invest in them no matter what they do, or even continue to invest after repeated failures.</p><p><b>From a probability perspective, both schools of thought, including investing in sectors and people, have a very consistent logic and are correct in many cases.</b></p><p>However, people are complex, and the probability of misjudgments about them is actually very high. More importantly, people are a dynamic process, and entrepreneurship is a marathon. This long process places drastically different demands on founders at different stages.</p><p><b>The capability models required for starting a business, maintaining it, and growing again vary greatly. Only a very small number of entrepreneurs can quickly iterate their cognition and capabilities, thereby truly leading the company from 0 to 1 and from 1 to N.</b></p><p>Let me give you an example. One of my former bosses never bought US stocks, but one day he suddenly bought Cheetah Mobile stock.</p><p>I asked him why he bought Cheetah Mobile, and he said he was optimistic about Fu Sheng.</p><p>He added: Fu Sheng had previously proven himself to be a top-notch product manager at 360, while leading Cheetah Mobile to find a unique path and create a cleanup master overseas proved his strategic ability and execution. Fu Sheng is still very young, and even if he may make mistakes, he has great long-term potential.</p><p><b>However, after buying this order, he lost everything and questioned his existence.</b></p><p>So, is there really something wrong with his logic above?</p><p>In fact, judging a person's abilities based on their history is not necessarily a common method for identifying people. This logic is actually a basic operation in the field of venture capital.</p><p>This is why many important directors of large companies are usually sought after by angel capital and early-stage venture capitalists whenever they announce their startups.</p><p>The simple logic behind this is that the key directors of large companies are actually frontline fighters. They can hear the sound of gunfire and have experienced real-world combat, so the probability of success in investing in them is naturally higher.</p><p>So why do you lose so badly when you bet on Cheetah using the same logic?</p><p><b>The answer is the difference in the probability of casting a net in the primary and secondary markets.</b></p><p>The logic behind primary markets like venture capital is to bet extensively, because there's no way to know who will be the next ByteDance, the next Pinduoduo, or the next Kuaishou. It's better to make the wrong investment than to miss out on a big fish.</p><p>Its logic is to pursue an overall win rate. It invests in 50 companies, and if only 2 of them successfully go public, it can Cover the failures of the remaining 48 companies, because these two companies that go public may bring 100 times the return.</p><p>In terms of the success rate of a single investment, it is extremely low, meaning 96% of investments fail, but this does not affect its overall profitability. (Of course, most venture capitalists cannot achieve such a probability, and these funds themselves are losing money.)</p><p><b>If individual investors use the same logic to choose stocks, it's a nightmare, because the size of your capital basically determines that it's difficult to cast a wide net and completely impossible to diversify risk.</b></p><p>Looking at companies from the single dimension of \"people\" is like licking blood on a knife's edge, with an extremely high failure rate.</p><p>Therefore, if an individual investor wants to buy a company's stock, you can have countless logics, but never just for this one reason—\"I chose to buy it because I approve of its founder.\"</p><p><b>Note that I'm not saying that founders are unimportant to a company; in fact, the importance of founders to a company cannot be overemphasized.</b></p><p>However, I want to say that it is actually difficult to truly judge a founder from an external perspective. Even top venture capitalists can only judge a founder from a few dimensions, and sometimes this judgment is even extremely emotional.</p><p><b>Zhu Xiaohu has repeatedly publicly reflected on how he missed ByteDance.</b></p><p>When ByteDance approached Jinshajiang on B-Theory, Zhu Xiaohu intuitively judged that Zhang Yiming was too refined and lacked the powerful aura of Cheng Wei. In the end, he did not invest in ByteDance. Later, he regretted it.</p><p><b>People are always complex; don't be too confident in your own judgment.</b></p><p>Okay, those are the four hidden logics of the Chinese Internet summarized by Wei Xi. The Internet is a young industry, but also a dynamic industry. It is evolving at an unprecedented speed, so fast that it is difficult to summarize universally applicable laws.</p><p>The only thing this generation of young people should do is devote themselves to and embrace this industry, and feel and grasp the surging pulse of technology in practice.</p><p><b>Remember, don't lie flat.</b></p>","source":"wxzb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Four Dark Logics of China's Internet: Each One Subverts Cognition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFour Dark Logics of China's Internet: Each One Subverts Cognition\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">卫夕指北</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In the short 20 years since the development of the Internet in China, it has already undergone many rounds of profound changes.</b></p><p>From the portal era to Web 2.0, from the PC internet to the mobile internet and then to the industrial internet...</p><p>In this process, industry practitioners and investors have been summarizing the logic and patterns of the industry. Indeed, many of these patterns and logic have been generally proven to be effective.</p><p><b>However, what I want to talk about today are actually four exceptional dark logics.</b></p><p>I call them dark logic because their opposites are usually true, and the interesting thing about the internet is that:<b>There is no universal theorem that applies everywhere; a closer look at any major logic will reveal exceptions.</b></p><p>Here are four exceptional hidden logics of the Chinese internet that I have summarized—</p><p><b>1. A company with a competitive advantage is not necessarily a good company.</b></p><p><b>The theory of a company's competitive advantage originated from Warren Buffett's discussion of whether a company has an advantage that other companies cannot surpass.</b></p><p>Later, in his book \"Buffett's Moat,\" Pat Dorsey summarized moats into four categories: 1. A company's intangible assets, such as brands and patents; 2. High conversion costs; 3. Cost advantage; 4. Network effect;</p><p>We usually believe that companies that have one or more of the above four types of advantages have a competitive advantage. A competitive advantage is certainly very important. However, if a company has a competitive advantage, is it necessarily a good company worth investing in?</p><p>The answer is not necessarily.</p><p>Weibo is a very typical example.</p><p><b>Today, most people would actually admit that Weibo has a competitive advantage.</b>—As a communication platform, it is the first battleground for the fermentation of any news and current event; As an entertainment platform, it is the primary source of support for fans pursuing celebrities; As a platform for influence, it also boasts the broadest and most diverse range of opinion leaders;</p><p><b>The almost monopolistic position of these three dimensions has never been shaken since the birth of Weibo. They are indispensable and irreplaceable, which is undoubtedly a moat.</b></p><p>However, would you dare to buy Weibo stock today?</p><p>I think at least many people wouldn't dare. According to the latest financial report, Weibo's monthly active users in Q1 2021 were 530 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and its daily active users were 230 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.</p><p>Despite the pandemic contributing to the high base last year, sluggish growth in Weibo users has become a highly probable event.</p><p>Without a new second curve, it will actually be difficult for it to gain more user time in the competition with strong companies such as ByteDance and Tencent.</p><p>The competitive moat is insufficient to protect Weibo.</p><p>An easy-to-understand logic is—<b>A moat can make it difficult for you to decline quickly, but it does not guarantee that you will continue to grow;</b></p><p>For internet companies, growth is always the top priority and the most important Achilles' heel.</p><p>There is no such thing as a one-time solution for internet companies. Those companies that eventually become giants are not actually new strategies, but rather continuously expand their operational radius and seize new territory. This is true for Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance.</p><p>Baidu, holding onto the search moat, is undoubtedly a temporary king. It has no rivals in this search track to date, but if its boundary expansion is even slightly slower, it will be ruthlessly squeezed out of the top group.</p><p><b>Another logic about moats is that you do have a moat in your field, but your field itself is no longer important.</b></p><p>Momo, Meitu, Douban, Tianya, Xunlei... all have extremely high competitive advantages in their respective fields. They have always held their own and have never been overturned by competitors. However, their respective fields have become less important. The competitive advantage remains, but the city is gone.</p><p><b>Therefore, the moat is important, but it is dangerous to be obsessed with the moat. Don't sleep on the moat.</b></p><p>In this sense, I am actually a little worried about Bilibili. The content production and consumption ecosystem formed by its strong stickiness to anime, manga, and young users is certainly its moat, which is indestructible. Xigua Video has failed to gain the upper hand despite its repeated strong attacks.</p><p><b>But can Bilibili always only tell this single story? Will its dream rate ultimately be realized?</b></p><p><b>Second, a large track is not necessarily a good track.</b></p><p>\"Investing in sectors\" is an extremely important school of thought in the field of internet investment, and its underlying logic is—<b>If a track is large enough, it will inevitably give rise to excellent companies, and as long as you invest in an excellent company in this track, you will definitely have long-term returns.</b></p><p>This logic is basically correct, or rather, it is largely correct; however, there are still some tracks that do not conform to this principle.</p><p>The reason is that these tracks are crowded and lack competitive advantage, and the fierce competition has no end in sight, which has made it difficult for their top players to obtain reasonable returns for a considerable period of time.</p><p><b>China's long-form video industry is a typical example.</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, this is a large track, with total annual revenue expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, which is quite large.</p><p>However, starting with Youku, a pioneer in 2006, the main players in this field have suffered losses for 15 consecutive years. For example, iQiyi had revenue of 29.7 billion yuan and a loss of 6 billion yuan in 2020. This achievement was achieved after a significant improvement.</p><p>Note that it is difficult to say that these losses are strategic losses. Even today, we still cannot see how long the losses in this field will continue or when the final outcome of the industry will be settled.</p><p><b>Yes, money is the only barrier in this industry.</b></p><p>LatePost previously reported on the competition between Youku and Tencent Video for \"Ruyi's Royal Love in the Palace\".</p><p>Originally, the two companies had agreed to pay 600 million yuan each to purchase the rights to broadcast the drama simultaneously on both platforms. However, after thinking it over, Tencent decided that the drama might become as popular as \"Empresses in the Palace\" and ultimately decided to acquire the exclusive broadcasting rights for a staggering 1.3 billion yuan.</p><p>This is a money-burning game. If only burning money alone could end wars, the key weakness of this industry lies in—<b>Money simply cannot buy user loyalty.</b></p><p>Some platforms spent over 1 billion yuan to buy the World Cup broadcasting rights, but once the World Cup is over, users are attracted away by the novelty of other platforms.</p><p>The big players in this industry are all fighting hard. Despite the huge losses, no one is willing to be the first to give up because they cannot ignore the exorbitant cost of submerging themselves, and they are all waiting for their competitors to be unable to withstand it and withdraw.</p><p>However, behind the three major platforms are BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent), each of which is financially powerful and unanimously believes that this is a war for positioning, and each of them is dreaming of becoming \"China's Netflix\".</p><p>Even if some players withdraw, since there are no other high barriers to entry, there will always be new players eyeing the market. The fact that Youku acquired Tudou in an attempt to unify the market but ultimately failed is a clear example.</p><p>That's right, a big track isn't necessarily a good track; the aviation industry is another example.</p><p>Warren Buffett has two famous quotes about the aviation industry—</p><p>The first sentence is:<i>\"If a capitalist had shot down the Wright brothers' plane before its first successful test flight in Little Eagle, North Carolina, investors around the world might have recovered a lot of their losses.\"</i></p><p>The second sentence is:<i>\"If you want to be a millionaire, you can become a multi-millionaire first, and then buy airline stocks.\"</i></p><p><b>So why is the aviation industry, which is a behemoth in terms of scale, not a good track?</b></p><p>The reason is that the aviation industry has four main characteristics: 1. High fixed costs and high debt ratio; 2. Product homogenization and weak premium power; 3. Consumers have many choices and extremely low brand loyalty; 4. The industry is highly cyclical and strongly influenced by the macroeconomy;</p><p>Based on the above characteristics, the aviation industry requires large investments, has highly volatile profit margins, and is highly competitive, making it difficult to achieve sustainable long-term competitiveness. As a result, Warren Buffett has repeatedly suffered setbacks in airline stocks.</p><p><b>Therefore, size is not the only indicator for measuring the quality of a track; growth and health are equally important.</b></p><p><b>Third, a company that leads in the early stages of a track may not be able to lead in the long term.</b></p><p>Let me start with an example to address this point.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, when new energy vehicle stocks were at their most frenzied, a friend told me that he had bought half of his working capital into the stocks of Nio, Li Auto, and XPeng.</p><p>I asked him about his investment logic, and he said—</p><p><i>“The eventual rise of China’s new energy is an extremely certain event, and I’m betting on these three currently leading companies. Of course, I don’t know who will ultimately win, but my logic is that one of them will definitely win. So as long as the stock price of the winning company triples, I won’t lose even if the other two go to zero and die.”</i></p><p>In a sense, I agree with his view, but I still kindly remind him that it is possible that the Chinese new energy company will not ultimately win among these three companies.</p><p>He said, \"I haven't thought about that; the possibility is relatively small.\"</p><p><b>I told him that the possibility was indeed relatively small, but not impossible, so I told him the story of the short video industry—</b></p><p>Around 2015 and 2016, the short video industry began to become lively, and investors began to judge that it was a fast-growing and large-scale sector. But which teams should they specifically invest in?</p><p>The market landscape at the time was that Miaopai was leading, Meipai was coming on strong, and Kuaishou was still a small company that had not entered the mainstream spotlight.</p><p>As a result, Miaopai, the leading company, became a hot commodity in the investment world. During that period, Miaopai's parent company, Yixia Technology, received five rounds of financing, with the last Series E financing reaching a scale of 500 million US dollars.</p><p>At the press conference for the Series E funding round, founder Han Kun's excitement was palpable.<i>\"Yixia Technology's video matrix has become the Chinese version of Youtube.\"</i></p><p>However, everyone knows what happened next: a year later, Douyin and Kuaishou rose to prominence, and Miaopai was powerless to resist and was quickly marginalized.</p><p>Another company that was photographed collapsing on the beach was the once-powerful Meipai.</p><p><b>Thus, neither of the two leading products in the short video industry, which had raised countless funds, emerged victorious.</b></p><p>Let's briefly explain the underlying logic: Early leading companies had different requirements for startup capabilities because the industry was not yet mature. This can also explain why Miaopai failed while Douyin succeeded.</p><p><b>There are certainly many reasons behind this, but one important perspective is the difference in their focus:</b></p><p>When Miaopai was born and developed, China's 4G was not yet particularly mature, so the technical requirements for how to play in different network environments were very high. Han Kun, the founder of Miaopai, has always been very proud of Miaopai's basic technical capabilities.</p><p>Before Miaopai was born, Han Kun led his team to develop a multimedia framework system called Vitamio, which was a video technology supplier for several internet companies.</p><p>In fact, one of the main reasons why Sina Weibo invested in Miaopai was that it valued its ability to largely address its shortcomings in video technology.</p><p><b>Therefore, in Han Kun's cognitive framework, technology is an important barrier, so he naturally pays less attention to other core variables that determine the real core of this track.</b></p><p>But by 2017, with the maturity of 4G and the decline in tariffs, technological barriers had proven to be fragile. Recommendation algorithms and content production ecosystems had become the true core competitiveness of short videos. In a sense, the outcome of this war may have been predetermined from the beginning.</p><p><b>Therefore, investing in early-stage leading companies in a sector is certainly not wrong, but it is also necessary to consider whether the core logic of this sector will change, and whether the core elements required after the changes are truly possessed by the current leading companies.</b></p><p><b>Fourth, the founder does not fully represent the company's competitiveness.</b></p><p>As mentioned above, one important school of thought in the investment field is investing in sectors, while another important school of thought is investing in people. Some VCs have their eye on someone and will invest in them no matter what they do, or even continue to invest after repeated failures.</p><p><b>From a probability perspective, both schools of thought, including investing in sectors and people, have a very consistent logic and are correct in many cases.</b></p><p>However, people are complex, and the probability of misjudgments about them is actually very high. More importantly, people are a dynamic process, and entrepreneurship is a marathon. This long process places drastically different demands on founders at different stages.</p><p><b>The capability models required for starting a business, maintaining it, and growing again vary greatly. Only a very small number of entrepreneurs can quickly iterate their cognition and capabilities, thereby truly leading the company from 0 to 1 and from 1 to N.</b></p><p>Let me give you an example. One of my former bosses never bought US stocks, but one day he suddenly bought Cheetah Mobile stock.</p><p>I asked him why he bought Cheetah Mobile, and he said he was optimistic about Fu Sheng.</p><p>He added: Fu Sheng had previously proven himself to be a top-notch product manager at 360, while leading Cheetah Mobile to find a unique path and create a cleanup master overseas proved his strategic ability and execution. Fu Sheng is still very young, and even if he may make mistakes, he has great long-term potential.</p><p><b>However, after buying this order, he lost everything and questioned his existence.</b></p><p>So, is there really something wrong with his logic above?</p><p>In fact, judging a person's abilities based on their history is not necessarily a common method for identifying people. This logic is actually a basic operation in the field of venture capital.</p><p>This is why many important directors of large companies are usually sought after by angel capital and early-stage venture capitalists whenever they announce their startups.</p><p>The simple logic behind this is that the key directors of large companies are actually frontline fighters. They can hear the sound of gunfire and have experienced real-world combat, so the probability of success in investing in them is naturally higher.</p><p>So why do you lose so badly when you bet on Cheetah using the same logic?</p><p><b>The answer is the difference in the probability of casting a net in the primary and secondary markets.</b></p><p>The logic behind primary markets like venture capital is to bet extensively, because there's no way to know who will be the next ByteDance, the next Pinduoduo, or the next Kuaishou. It's better to make the wrong investment than to miss out on a big fish.</p><p>Its logic is to pursue an overall win rate. It invests in 50 companies, and if only 2 of them successfully go public, it can Cover the failures of the remaining 48 companies, because these two companies that go public may bring 100 times the return.</p><p>In terms of the success rate of a single investment, it is extremely low, meaning 96% of investments fail, but this does not affect its overall profitability. (Of course, most venture capitalists cannot achieve such a probability, and these funds themselves are losing money.)</p><p><b>If individual investors use the same logic to choose stocks, it's a nightmare, because the size of your capital basically determines that it's difficult to cast a wide net and completely impossible to diversify risk.</b></p><p>Looking at companies from the single dimension of \"people\" is like licking blood on a knife's edge, with an extremely high failure rate.</p><p>Therefore, if an individual investor wants to buy a company's stock, you can have countless logics, but never just for this one reason—\"I chose to buy it because I approve of its founder.\"</p><p><b>Note that I'm not saying that founders are unimportant to a company; in fact, the importance of founders to a company cannot be overemphasized.</b></p><p>However, I want to say that it is actually difficult to truly judge a founder from an external perspective. Even top venture capitalists can only judge a founder from a few dimensions, and sometimes this judgment is even extremely emotional.</p><p><b>Zhu Xiaohu has repeatedly publicly reflected on how he missed ByteDance.</b></p><p>When ByteDance approached Jinshajiang on B-Theory, Zhu Xiaohu intuitively judged that Zhang Yiming was too refined and lacked the powerful aura of Cheng Wei. In the end, he did not invest in ByteDance. Later, he regretted it.</p><p><b>People are always complex; don't be too confident in your own judgment.</b></p><p>Okay, those are the four hidden logics of the Chinese Internet summarized by Wei Xi. The Internet is a young industry, but also a dynamic industry. It is evolving at an unprecedented speed, so fast that it is difficult to summarize universally applicable laws.</p><p>The only thing this generation of young people should do is devote themselves to and embrace this industry, and feel and grasp the surging pulse of technology in practice.</p><p><b>Remember, don't lie flat.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b-pJUuDoniwtpA5Wo8vFvQ\">卫夕指北</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cea63431ce8de4033f967e80206303c3","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b-pJUuDoniwtpA5Wo8vFvQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163908633","content_text":"在中国互联网发展的短短20多年中，早已经历过多轮沧海桑田的变迁。从门户时代到Web2.0，从PC互联网到移动互联网再到产业互联网......在此过程中，行业的从业者和投资者其实一直在总结关于这个行业的逻辑和规律，的确，有很多规律和逻辑被普遍证明是有效的。然而今天我要和大家聊的其实是四条例外的暗逻辑。我之所以称之为暗逻辑，是因为它们的反面通常是正确的，而互联网的有趣之处在于：并没有放之四海而皆准的通用定理，任何一个大的逻辑仔细观察都会有例外；以下就是我总结的中国互联网的四条例外的暗逻辑——一、有护城河的公司不一定是好公司企业的护城河理论最早源于巴菲特的论述，即一个企业有没有其他企业难以逾越的优势。后来帕特·多尔西在《巴菲特的护城河》一书中将护城河总结成四类：1、企业的无形资产，比如品牌、专利等；2、高转换成本；3、成本优势；4、网络效应；通常我们认为拥有以上四类中的一类或多类优势的企业即拥有护城河，护城河当然非常重要，然而一家企业如果拥有护城河它就一定是一家值得投资的好公司吗？答案是不一定。微博就是一个非常典型的例子。今天，大部分人其实都会承认，微博是有护城河的——它作为传播平台，是任何新闻时事的第一发酵阵地；作为娱乐平台，它是粉丝追星第一应援阵地；而作为影响平台，它也坐拥了最广泛最多元的意见领袖；这三个维度几乎垄断的地位从微博一诞生其实就没有被撼动过，不可或缺，无可替代，这毫无疑问是护城河；然而，你今天敢买微博的股票吗？我想至少很多人不敢，根据最新的财报，微博2021年Q1的的月活5.3亿，同比下降4%，日活2.3亿，同比下降5%。尽管有疫情导致去年基数偏高的原因，但微博用户增长乏力已成为一个大概率事件。如果它没有新的第二曲线，它其实很难在接下来与字节跳动、腾讯等强悍公司的竞争中获得更多用户时长。护城河难以护住微博。一个容易理解的逻辑是——护城河可以让你难以很快衰落，但并不保证你继续增长；而对于互联网公司而言，增长永远是最优先的主题、最重要的命门。互联网公司没有一劳永逸，那些最终走向巨头的公司其实都不是一招鲜，而是不断拓展自己的作战半径，持续去抢新的地盘，腾讯如此、阿里如此、字节亦如此。百度抱着搜索这个护城河，当然是一时的王者，在搜索这个赛道至今没有对手，但它边界扩张速度稍微慢一点，就被无情地挤出第一集团了。关于护城河的另一个逻辑是——你在你所在领域的确有护城河，但你的领域本身不再重要了；陌陌、美图、豆瓣、天涯、迅雷.......在各自的领域都有着极高的护城河，它们一直稳坐钓鱼台，从来都没有被竞争对手颠覆过，然而它们各自的领域本身变得不再重要了，护城河还在，城没了。所以，护城河很重要，但迷恋护城河很危险，不要躺在护城河上睡觉。从这个意义上说，其实我还是稍微有点担心B站的，对二次元和年轻用户极强的黏性所构成的内容生产和消费生态当然是它的护城河，坚不可摧，西瓜视频多次强攻也不得要领。但B站能一直只讲这个单一的故事吗？它的市梦率能最终被兑现吗？二、大的赛道不一定是好赛道。“投赛道”是互联网投资领域一个极为重要的流派，它背后的逻辑是——如果一个赛道足够大，那么它一定会诞生优秀的公司，而只要投中了这个赛道的优秀公司，就一定会有长线收益；这个逻辑基本上是对的，或者说它在很大程度上是对的，然而，还是有一些赛道则并不符合这一原则。原因是这些赛道拥挤而缺乏护城河，残酷竞争却看不到终局，从而导致在相当长的一段时间内都让其头部玩家难以获得合理的收益。中国的长视频赛道就是一个典型。毫无疑问，这是一条大的赛道，这一赛道每年的总营收预计超过1000亿，不可谓不大。然而，从2006的先驱优酷算起，这个领域的主要玩家已经连续亏损15年了，比如爱奇艺，2020年全年营收297亿，亏损60亿，这还是在大幅改善之后取得的成绩。注意，很难说这些亏损属于战略型亏损，即便到今天，我们依然看不到这个领域的亏损还要持续多久，行业的终局最终何时尘埃落定。是滴，钱是这个行业唯一的壁垒。《晚点》曾经报道过优酷和腾讯视频当年争夺《如懿传》的过程——本来两家友好约定每家出6亿购买这部剧双平台同步播出的权益，但腾讯回去一思量，断定这部剧可能会像《甄嬛传》一样火遍全网，最终拍板以吓人的13亿天价拿下了这部剧的独播权。这是一个烧钱的游戏，如果仅靠烧钱就能终结战争就好了，这个行业的关键命门还在于——用钱根本买不来用户的忠诚度。有的平台花超过10亿+买下世界杯的转播权，一旦世界杯一过，用户又被其他平台的新鲜大局吸引走了。这个行业的大玩家都在硬抗，尽管大幅亏损，谁也不愿意第一个放弃，因为无法忽略天价的淹没成本，都在等着对手抗不住退出。但三大平台的背后是BAT，每一个都财大气粗，都一致认为这是卡位的战争，每一家都在做着“中国Netflix”的美梦。即便有玩家退出了，由于没有其他高壁垒，总会有虎视眈眈的新玩家参与进来，当年优酷并购土豆想一统江湖但最终很快落空就是一个明证。没错，大的赛道真的不一定是好的赛道，航空业是另一个例子。股神巴菲特关于航空业有两句名言——第一句是：“在莱特兄弟发明的飞机在北卡罗来纳州的小鹰镇第一次试飞成功之前，如果有个资本家击落它的话，那么全球各地的投资者也许会挽回很多的损失。”第二句是：“如果你想成为一名百万富翁，你可以先成为一名千万富翁，然后再买航空股。”那么，为什么在规模上属于巨无霸的航空业并不是一条好赛道呢？原因在于航空业有四大特点：1.固定成本高，负债率高；2.产品同质化，溢价能力弱；3.消费者选择多，品牌忠诚度极低；4.行业周期性强，受宏观经济影响强；正是基于以上几个特点，航空业需要投入大，利润率波动大，竞争激烈难以获得持续长期竞争力，以至于股神巴菲特也多次在航空股上载跟头。所以，衡量一条赛道是否优质，大其实并非唯一指标，增长性和健康度同样重要。三、一个赛道初期领先的公司不一定能长期领先关于这个点，我先从一个例子切入——年初新能源汽车股票最疯狂的时候，一位朋友告诉我说自己把一半的流动资金买了蔚来、理想和小鹏的三家的股票。我问他的投资逻辑，他说——“中国的新能源终将崛起是一个极其确定的事件，而我押宝这三家目前领先的公司，我当然不知道谁会最终胜出，但我的逻辑是，他们一定会有一家会胜出，那么只要这家胜出的公司股价涨三倍，另外两家哪怕归0死掉我也不会亏。”某种意义上，我是同意他的这种观点的，但我还是善意地提醒他，有没有可能中国新能源最终胜出的并不在这三家之内呢？他说，这我倒是没想过，这个可能性比较小吧。我告诉他，的确可能性会相对小，但并不是没有可能，于是我给他讲了短视频赛道的故事——在2015、2016年这个时间点，短视频这个赛道已经开始变得热闹起来，投资人开始判断这是一个成长快、规模大的赛道，但具体应该投哪些团队呢？当时的市场格局是——秒拍领先、美拍来势汹汹，快手还属于一家小公司，没有走入主流视线。于是领先的秒拍就变成了投资界的香饽饽，在那段时间，秒拍的母公司一下科技前后获得了5轮融资，其中最后的E轮融资规模高达5亿美金。在E轮融资的发布会上，创始人韩坤的兴奋溢于言表——“一下科技的视频矩阵，已经成为中国版的Youtube。”然而接下来的故事大家都知道了，一年后抖音快手崛起，秒拍毫无招架之力，被迅速边缘化。一起被拍倒在沙滩上的，还有当年气势如虹的美拍。至此，融资无数的短视频赛道的两个领先产品没有一个笑到了最后。我们稍微理一下背后的逻辑：早期领先的公司由于行业还没有发展成熟，赛道对创业公司能力要求其实是不一样的，这也能从一个侧面来解释为什么秒拍失败了而抖音成功了。这背后的原因当然很多，但其中一个重要的视角是二者的关注重点的差异：秒拍诞生发展的时期中国的4G还没有特别成熟，于是对不同网络环境下如何流程播放的技术要求是很高的，秒拍创始人韩坤其实一直非常得意的是秒拍的基础技术能力。在秒拍诞生前韩坤一直在带领团队开发一个叫Vitamio的多媒体框架系统，是多个互联网公司的视频技术供应商。事实上，新浪微博之所以投资秒拍，一个重要原因就是看重了其可以在很大程度上补齐自己视频技术的短板。所以在韩坤的认知框架里，技术是重要的壁垒，他自然就对其他决定这个赛道真正核心变量关注的少一些。但时间来到2017年，4G成熟、资费下降，技术壁垒被证明其实不堪一击，推荐算法、内容生产生态成为短视频真正的核心竞争力，某种意义上，这场战争的结局从一开始或许就早已注定。所以，投赛道早期领先公司当然没错，但也需要考虑这个赛道的核心逻辑会不会发生变化，变化之后所要求的核心要素现在领先的公司是否真正具备。四、创始人并不完全代表公司的竞争力上面谈到投资领域一个重要流派是投赛道，而另一个重要流派是投人，有的VC看准了一个人，无论他做什么都会投，甚至多次失败之后还会继续投。从概率的角度，投赛道投人这两个流派都有着非常自洽的逻辑，在很多情况下都是对的。然而，人是很复杂的，对人的判断出现偏差的概率其实非常大，更重要的是，人是一个动态的过程，创业是一场马拉松，漫长的过程在不同的阶段对创始人的要求是截然不同的——创业、守业、再增长所要求的能力模型差异非常大，只有凤毛麟角的创业者能快速迭代自己的认知和能力，从而真正带领公司从0到1、从1到N。我举一个例子，我之前的一个上司，从不买美股，但突然有一天买了猎豹移动的股票。我问他为什么买猎豹，他说看好傅盛这个人。他接着补充：傅盛之前在360证明了自己是顶级优秀的产品经理，而带领猎豹独辟蹊径在海外做出清理大师则证明了他的战略能力和执行力，而傅盛还很年轻，即便可能犯错，但长期潜力很大。然而，他这一单买下去，亏得屁滚尿流，亏得怀疑人生。那么是他以上的逻辑真的有问题吗？其实不见得，通过一个人的历史判断一个人的能力是识人常用的方法，这样的逻辑在风险投资领域其实属于基本操作。这也是为什么很多大厂的重要总监只要一宣布创业，通常会受到天使资本和早期风投的追捧。这背后一个简单的逻辑就是，大厂的重要总监们其实是一线的战斗者，他们听得见炮声，真枪实战地做过，投他们成功的概率当然会大一些。那么为什么以同样的逻辑投猎豹就输得一塌糊涂呢？答案是一级市场和二级市场撒网概率的区别。风险投资这类一级市场的逻辑是广泛押宝，因为根本不知道到底谁是下一个字节跳动，下一个拼多多，下一个快手，宁可投错也不能错过大鱼。它的逻辑追求的是整体的胜率，投50家企业，最终只要有2家能最终成功上市，就能Cover掉剩下48家的失败，因为上市的这两家可能带来100倍的回报。而从单笔投资成功率讲，它是极低的，即96%都是失败，但这不影响他整体赚钱；（当然大部分风投其实做不到这样的概率，这些基金本身也是亏钱的）如果个人投资者也用同样的逻辑去选股票，那简直就是噩梦，因为你的资金规模基本决定你很难广撒网，完全做不到分散风险。从“人”这一单一维度去看公司就是在刀尖上舔血、失败率极高。因此，个人投资者如果想要买某个公司的股票，你可以有无数种逻辑，但千万不要只因为这一个理由——“我选择买它是因为我认可它的创始人”。注意，我并不是说创始人对一家公司不重要，事实上，创始人对一家公司的重要性无论如何强调都不过分。但我要说的是，我们其实很难从一个外部视角真正判断一个创始人的全部，即便对于一流的风险投资人而言，他们在判断一个创始人的时候也仅仅只能从几个少数维度进行判断，有时候这种判断甚至是极其感性的。朱啸虎就多次公开检讨自己是如何错过字节跳动的——当时字节跳动B论找到金沙江，朱啸虎当时和张一鸣聊完之后凭直觉判断张一鸣这个人太斯文，没有程维那种强大的气场，最终没有投字节跳动，后来，他肠子都悔青了。人，任何时候都很复杂，不要对自己的判断力太自信。OK，以上就是卫夕总结的中国互联网的四大暗逻辑，互联网是一个年轻的产业，也是一个多变的行业，它在以前所未有的速度进化，它进化的速度以至于很难总结放之四海而皆准的规律。这一代年轻人唯一应该做的就是投身和拥抱这个行业，在实践中感受和把握技术汹涌澎湃的的脉搏。记住，别躺平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112460057,"gmtCreate":1622903452079,"gmtModify":1704193152536,"author":{"id":"3585296026947269","authorId":"3585296026947269","name":"Cjchow1919","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36eec2d2d76622a04377970dc70d359e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585296026947269","authorIdStr":"3585296026947269"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like 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