📅 *Vol Spike and Defensive Stance – Bearish Setup in BJ* (17 Oct 2025) The VIX just popped +23%, and this one looks real. A daily squeeze has fired, and multi-timeframe squeezes are lining up to follow — this isn’t just noise. SPY remains stuck in last Friday’s range, IWM’s breakout is under threat, and HYG is finding resistance right at its 50-day moving average. Financials got hit hard — **XLF** dropped nearly 3% despite solid earnings from the majors. The damage came from regionals, as **ZION** and **WAL** reported credit writedowns, echoing Dimon’s reminder earlier this week: *“there’s never just one cockroach.”* Oil’s slide continues, and though falling yields should offer some relief, the market feels jumpy. I’m focused on protecting my +19% MTD gains and being ultra-selective he
$VXX Vertical 251024 32.0C/37.0C$ ~$1.55 📅 *Smelling Danger – Positioning Stretched, Adding a Hedge* (8 Oct 2025) The S&P and Nasdaq finally pulled back — modestly — with semis and the Mag7 leading the dip. Technically, nothing looks broken yet, but the setup is getting fragile. Positioning is maxed out: retail, hedge funds, and systematic traders are all in. The dollar is coiled with multi-timeframe squeezes and bullish momentum; a breakout toward 103 could pressure overextended trades in gold and equities. Tesla’s wild intraday swings (+4%, -5%, +5.5%, -4.5%) could be early signs of distribution. Meanwhile, the VIX is waking up with a daily squeeze and rising momentum. With all that i
📅 6 Oct 2025 The S&P continues to grind higher, but divergences are starting to creep in — three on the daily chart and five on the QQQs. It’s not a full red flag yet, but worth keeping an open mind as momentum begins to stretch. The breakout in small caps is a big deal. IWM has cleared multi-year resistance, and historically, small-cap leadership tends to support broader market strength. Meanwhile, the dollar still looks heavy, but those multi-timeframe squeezes could flip long and turn into a headwind for risk assets. Same story with the VIX — if those squeezes fire to the upside, volatility could spike quickly. Amid that backdrop, I’m adding a new long setup in **MP**. 🎯 Trading Plan Adding $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ Nov 21 $70 Cutting
📅 *Markets Wobble as Powell Warns – Playing Defense Indices finished in the red on Tuesday. Nothing dramatic — the S&P and NASDAQ each slipped around 0.5% — but Powell’s comments on stubborn inflation and “high equity valuations” rattled sentiment just enough to remind traders how stretched things have become. The concern here is positioning. With the put-call ratio showing everyone piled long, and key cycle dates approaching, I’m trimming risk and going into defense mode through month-end. This isn’t the spot to chase; it’s the spot to protect. I’m not eager to short the strongest leaders, but I am fading weaker names. That’s why I’m targeting NOW with a call credit spread. At the same time, I’ve put on a couple of selective longs, but sizing is controlled. And Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI d
Another High, But Staying Cautious – Adding ANET* (19 Sep 2025) Another day, another high – but I’ll admit, I’m feeling conflicted. The uptrend is still strong, with small caps joining the rally, semiconductors leading, and risk appetite holding up. But with September’s triple witching, seasonal headwinds, and some timing signals turning bearish into next week, I’m leaning more cautious. I also felt a bit of FOMO today. OUST ripped 13.5% after I’d been watching it for days without pulling the trigger. Missing a move like that stings, but the key is to refocus — there will always be more opportunities ahead. For now, I’m adding exposure with ANET, but I’m not pressing bets aggressively. Selectivity matters here.
Fed Cut Fails to Excite Markets – Setting Up Tactical Plays [18 Sept 2025]
## 📅 *Fed Cut Fails to Excite Markets – Setting Up Tactical Plays The Fed delivered the widely anticipated **25bps rate cut**, and markets barely blinked. The **dot plot** revealed a divided board: nine governors see two more cuts this year, six expect no further cuts, and one even forecasts an aggressive 125bps of cuts in 2025. The **Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)** muddied things further — GDP estimates were revised higher, unemployment lower, and inflation hotter — yet policy still eased. Normally such dovishness would send risk assets higher, but perhaps the **memory of the 2022 inflation shock** still restrains exuberance. Equity indices churned sideways as traders weighed growth optimism against persistent price pressures. With this uncertain backdrop, I’m setting up trades w