To The Moon

Watching Support Before Calling a Turn My main lesson from Friday’s close is that reaching support and proving support are two different things. SPY is below its medium-term trend average, yet it is also testing an area that has mattered several times before. I can see the case for a bounce, but I do not want to treat the location alone as confirmation. Tonight, I’m writing down watchlist conditions rather than reporting orders or fills. The first decision is how much weight to give a possible rebound. If buyers defend this area and price starts to recover with broader participation, I would have more reason to take that response seriously. If support gives way, I need to reassess the consolidation instead of insisting it must hold. A familiar chart pattern can help me prepare for differen

# Watching Support Before Calling a Turn My main lesson from Friday’s close is that reaching support and proving support are two different things. SPY is below its medium-term trend average, yet it is also testing an area that has mattered several times before. I can see the case for a bounce, but I do not want to treat the location alone as confirmation. Tonight, I’m writing down watchlist conditions rather than reporting orders or fills. The first decision is how much weight to give a possible rebound. If buyers defend this area and price starts to recover with broader participation, I would have more reason to take that response seriously. If support gives way, I need to reassess the consolidation instead of insisting it must hold. A familiar chart pattern can help me prepare for differ

Watching What Holds Up When Tech Sells Off Thursday's close reminded me to look beyond the headline index before deciding how broad a sell-off really is. Technology and semiconductors were under pressure, while the equal-weight market and several quieter sectors held up better. My main takeaway was the unevenness of the move. Looking only at the largest growth stocks would have given me an incomplete picture. These are my observations and watchlist plans for Friday's session. They do not record any trades I have placed. The first thing I want to judge is the quality of any technology rebound. A sharp decline can create room for a bounce, but I would want to see stronger buying volume and a recovery of broken support before becoming more confident. If a rally struggles around levels that pr

# Better Breadth, but Tech Still Has Work to Do My market notes for 22 October, looking back at the 21 October close: the recovery is encouraging, but I am not treating one green session as an all-clear. These are observations and watchlist plans, not orders or claims that I have taken any of these trades. The most useful distinction for me is between improving breadth and repaired leadership. RSP holding above its 50-day moving average for a second session is constructive. More participation gives a recovery a better foundation. But QQQ remains below its own 50-day average, so the improvement is not uniform. That leaves me open to a bounce without assuming a lasting change in trend. A market can offer a tradable rebound and still run into trouble at the next layer of resistance. Semicondu

Looking Beyond the Headline Index The move that caught my attention in Tuesday’s session was the improvement underneath the main index. Small caps and the equal-weight market showed more strength than the Nasdaq, which makes me interested in where participation is broadening next. These are my observations and plans, not confirmation that I have entered any of the positions discussed below. I’m watching whether this rotation can last. Money moving out of crowded leaders and into neglected areas can create useful opportunities, but one strong session does not establish a durable trend. The Russell’s rebound looked encouraging, while a fresh countertrend confirmation was still missing. I want to see follow-through rather than assume the first bounce has settled the question. The homebuilders

Waiting for confirmation after the October selloff The 16 October close reminded me that one strong rebound is not enough to confirm a market low. Thursday’s recovery had made a washout bottom look plausible, but Friday’s selling put that idea back under pressure. My takeaway is to stay flexible: a promising explanation still needs price to support it. These are my planning reflections, not a record of orders or fills. What interested me most was the difference between the headline indices and the average stock. Technology weighed heavily on the broad market, while the equal-weight S&P 500 held up better over the week. That distinction matters to me. A weak index does not mean every sector is equally weak, but strength elsewhere does not automatically make the market safe to buy. Semic

Waiting for Confirmation After the Rebound Thursday's recovery made the market more interesting, but it did not make every chart a buy. For Friday's session, I am separating possible bounce opportunities from setups that still need to prove themselves. These are ideas I am reviewing, not a report of orders placed or trades filled. The S&P recovered from a weak opening and reclaimed important moving averages. The Nasdaq also recovered from its lows and held a trendline that mattered. That is encouraging. Technology still looks less convincing, however, and one strong recovery from an ugly open is not enough for me to declare the selling finished. For technology and semiconductors, the distinction I care about is a close above Thursday's high. An intraday bounce can fade, and an inside d

Why Falling Yields Are Not Always Bullish The most important part of Wednesday's sell-off, for me, was not the red screen. It was the bond market. Inflation came in hotter than expected, yet Treasury yields reversed their initial rise and finished lower. That is a reminder that falling yields are not automatically good news for stocks. For Thursday, 15 October, my focus is on risk control and waiting for clearer price action. These are the decisions I am considering, not orders I have placed. I usually associate lower yields with some relief for growth stocks. But that depends on why yields are falling. If investors are seeking safety because they are worried about growth or credit, cheaper government borrowing does not necessarily translate into confidence in equities. The explanation mat

Broader Participation and Better Trade Selection My focus after the 13 October review is to look beyond the largest technology stocks without relaxing my entry criteria. I want to watch for broader participation, check the earnings calendar and be more deliberate about expiry risk. These are watchlist plans, not trades I have placed. The distinction between a strong index and a strong market matters here. The S&P 500 can sit near its highs while many individual stocks remain below their moving averages. Improving breadth is encouraging, but I want to see that improvement become sustained participation rather than a brief rebound in laggards. I am paying particular attention to the equal-weight market, small caps and regional banks. Falling longer-term bond yields could help those areas

A Broader Rally Still Needs Confirmation My focus going into Monday is whether the rally can spread beyond its familiar technology leaders. These are watchlist considerations, not a record of trades I have placed. Friday's recovery was encouraging, but light trading volume makes me cautious about reading too much into one green session. Holding above a breakout matters. So does seeing more of the market participate. I would rather look for both than assume that a stronger headline index means every bullish setup deserves capital. The equal-weight market and smaller companies are worth watching here. Early improvement in breadth could open opportunities outside the same crowded names. But an early improvement is not yet a durable rotation, and a promising chart is not automatically a timely