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雷鸟

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- 雷鸟雷鸟
  ·2022-11-21
  [微笑]
  New policies to ensure property delivery have been introduced, with the People's Bank of China planning to provide 200 billion yuan in interest-free relending to commercial banks.
  2023年3月31日前，央行将向商业银行提供2000亿元免息再贷款，支持商业银行提供配套资金用于支持“保交楼”，封闭运行、专款专用。11月21日，人民银行、银保监会联合召开全国性商业银行信贷工作座谈会
  New policies to ensure property delivery have been introduced, with the People's Bank of China planning to provide 200 billion yuan in interest-free relending to commercial banks.
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- 雷鸟雷鸟
  ·2021-08-15
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  Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying economic logic
  中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。
  Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying economic logic
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- 雷鸟雷鸟
  ·2021-07-14
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On November 21, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly convened a nationwide symposium on commercial bank credit work to study and deploy the implementation of financial support policies and measures to stabilize the overall economy. At the meeting, CBN reporters learned that the People's Bank of China plans to release a loan support plan to ensure the delivery of properties soon; Until March 31, 2023, the People's Bank of China will provide 200 billion yuan in interest-free relending to commercial banks, supporting them in providing supporting facilities...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101601577.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101601577.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101601577.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116603343","content_text":"2023年3月31日前，央行将向商业银行提供2000亿元免息再贷款，支持商业银行提供配套资金用于支持“保交楼”，封闭运行、专款专用。11月21日，人民银行、银保监会联合召开全国性商业银行信贷工作座谈会，研究部署金融支持稳经济大盘政策措施落实工作。在会上，第一财经记者了解到，近期，央行拟发布保交楼贷款支持计划；至2023年3月31日前，央行将向商业银行提供2000亿元免息再贷款，支持商业银行提供配套资金用于支持“保交楼”，封闭运行、专款专用。具体而言，支持范围包括两个方面：一是为“保交楼”专项纾困政策提供配套融资；二是推动化解未交楼个人住房贷款风险，支持已出售、但逾期未交付，并经过金融管理部门认定的项目加快建设交付。目前，这一贷款支持计划正在征求行业意见。该项贷款支持计划为全新的、阶段性政策，与此前出台的保交楼专项借款有所不同。政策一方面为了解决现行机制的问题，即“银行想做、做不了，地方政府、企业认识不到位、不配合”；此外，也是为了化解金融机构存量贷款风险。今年8月，住建部、财政部、人民银行等有关部门出台措施，完善政策工具箱，通过政策性银行专项借款方式支持已售逾期难交付住宅项目建设交付。此外，上述座谈会强调，要全面落实房地产长效机制，因城施策实施好差别化住房信贷政策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求。保持房地产融资平稳有序，稳定房地产企业开发贷款、建筑企业贷款投放，支持个人住房贷款合理需求，支持开发贷款、信托贷款等存量融资在保证债权安全的前提下合理展期。用好民营企业债券融资支持工具（“第二支箭”）支持民营房企发债融资。完善保交楼专项借款新增配套融资的法律保障、监管政策支持等，推动“保交楼”工作加快落实，维护住房消费者合法权益，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830987534,"gmtCreate":1629001051028,"gmtModify":1676529908389,"author":{"id":"4087176588976590","authorId":"4087176588976590","name":"雷鸟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a768051b2308514dc4c340afd775767","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087176588976590","idStr":"4087176588976590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830987534","repostId":"1198913754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198913754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198913754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying economic logic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198913754","media":"Alpha","summary":"中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。","content":"<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances, and maintaining security. This will shift the distribution of economic benefits more towards workers, reducing corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The new goals bring about a reset of the underlying regulatory logic.</b></p><p>We are standing at a significant turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to focus more on sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's tightening of restrictions on fintech, big tech giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is a manifestation of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits towards workers, which will lead to a decline in the share of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalances, economic sustainability, and data and cybersecurity may rise, while high-end manufacturing, technological independence and control, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor the risk of possible \"over-regulation\". At the same time, we are also paying attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals that employee welfare issues in platform companies have been resolved, or speeches from influential policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the internet sector, which is an important weight of the China index and accounts for approximately 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margins of this sector remain highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, remain under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From prioritizing growth to balancing equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and self-control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy focus: social risk, national risk, financial risk, and environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every round of regulation in Chinese history has brought about a subversion of the underlying logic of a particular industry: mining, dairy, wine, cross-border investment, gaming, pharmaceuticals, and this time, the internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry upheavals caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market volatility caused by excessive regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and the potential ultimate drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observable Event Resolution Signs:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main impact on the China equity index is on MSCI China (internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to understand China's logical reset</b></p><p>New Era, New Goals: We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a change in China's underlying logic and is not just targeting internet giants. Over the past decade, Beijing's core goals have been to maintain double-digit income growth and eliminate absolute poverty, giving top priority to economic growth. However, it has also brought about huge social imbalances, which has prompted the current government to shift to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and to introduce new government KPIs, including social balance, supply chain controllability, and data security.</p><p>Policy formulation over the past nine months reflects this goal. In short, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, allowing workers to share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to a systemic decline in valuations in some sectors. We believe that policymakers must face a serious balancing challenge: if China still hopes to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of the private sector to promote innovation, as well as facilitate the internationalization of the renminbi and capital flows. Although the new regulations impose restrictions on social responsibility and data usage, we believe there will be no significant impact on other equity segments.</p><p><b>However, this does not mean that there will be no volatility in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Much of the content of this regulation is actually old content, so why has it suddenly accelerated in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor and catering industry in 2013-14, foreign investment in 2016-17, games in 2018, and pharmaceuticals in 2018-19 mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to adjust portfolios: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policy factors (stocks related to people's livelihood and safety). Further focus: new economy sectors such as clean energy, data and cybersecurity, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chains, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform 2015-2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>A document titled<b>Consumption 2030: Service First</b>The report states that by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this transformation, services will create more value for GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, per capita household income in China will double by 2030, and purchasing power will be dominated by those aged 35-44 and over 55 (the baby boomers born in the 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>and<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that Chinese consumers' consumption concepts will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what is the main driving force behind this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes there are five factors: income, demographics, technology, policy, and culture. At the same time, the report also points out potential risks in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States as the world's largest consumer.</b></p><p>In this report, we updated our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that by 2030, China's average household income will rise from $6,000 to $12,000, with key drivers of growth being Urbanization 2.0, continued economic openness to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and ongoing reforms to attract foreign investment.</p><p>While an aging population will naturally increase consumption rates, Chinese policymakers are also striving to promote a domestic economic circulation strategy to unleash China's consumption potential, primarily to address the challenges posed to China's exports in a multipolar post-COVID era.</p><p><b>The main means of advancing this strategy are, on the one hand, digitalization to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical goods and services, and to support consumption anytime, anywhere; On the other hand, reforms are needed to eliminate bottlenecks affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect China's consumer market to double in size over the next decade to $12.7 trillion, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of $9.7 trillion.</p><p><b>This means that China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9% over the next decade, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in the world in terms of consumer market size.</b></p><p>China's consumer goods market has now surpassed that of the United States, making it the world's largest market. If service consumption is included in the statistics, the current size of the US consumer market is still significantly larger than that of China. However, if our predictions come true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the world's largest consumer market in ten years.</p><p>A key characteristic of the changes in China's consumer market over the next decade is that service consumption will exceed physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption during the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from Western countries.</b>In Western countries, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. The main reason is China's unique population structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden on middle-aged people to care for their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, the high degree of digitalization based on the mobile internet has greatly enhanced the convenience and speed of obtaining services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Our investment framework: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes across various industries. To better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four broad categories based on their product lines and the drivers of industry change:</p><p><b>➤ expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the coming years, structural growth will be expected in sectors such as property management, medical services, elderly care services, health insurance, education, domestic and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services, and local living services.</p><p><b>➤ evolution</b>(Mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>We will face structural changes in the coming years. It falls into two categories. First, there are evolving business models, such as integrated platforms, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of the C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, i.e., mass customization services) business model, and broader applications of AI, AR and VR.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(An industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that were still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence by 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(Business and consumer), matchmaking services, and consumers who are more concerned about Corporate Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Previous growth</b>(Those mature industries disrupted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of numerous industries based on the outlook for the next decade lays the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Next, we will further refine this classification system, analyzing the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can study a company's competitiveness within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment Conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect stable and rapid growth in institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart living (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), and life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms).</p><p>However, offline platforms, such as traditional automobiles and home appliances, will face disruption. We also expect some rapidly growing industries to face slower growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five drivers and potential risk points</b></p><p>Five key drivers for the growth and evolution of China's consumer market over the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income – The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by steady growth in service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, by 2030, per capita disposable income will double from the current $6,000 to $12,000. Based on international experience, when per capita disposable income reaches US$8,000-10,000, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. Over the next decade, the compound annual growth rate of China's service consumption is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of goods consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full implementation of the two-child policy, China's family planning policy led to an aging population and increased the care burden on the elderly population. Now, this phenomenon is likely to translate into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further deepened public awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become a turning point for the large-scale use of technology, and with the widespread application of basic technologies, the threshold for services will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Demographic characteristics – the most important generational transitions occur within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policies over the past few decades have led to an uneven distribution of the population across different age groups; The rapid changes in China's economy over the past few decades have also led to a different distribution of income levels among different age groups than in ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the most concentrated population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income levels, these two age groups will also be the two age groups with the highest disposable income at that time. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditures of people aged 35 to 44 are concentrated on family needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from being dominated by young people in 2020 to being dominated by family needs and retirement plans in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology - China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another perspective.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operational efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also very much in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aimed at super smart cities. This strategy aims to achieve faster, safer, greener, and more livable urban communities by leveraging digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends that promote consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of the traditional economy:</b>This will improve overall operational efficiency and enhance household spending power.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super apps, IoT-based smart homes, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy – Government support to unleash consumption potential</b></p><p>China’s 14 Five-Year Plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with a multipolar post-COVID world, and are also striving to advance a domestic economic circulation strategy to unleash China’s consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a relatively high level of 35%, indicating that the untapped consumption potential is still enormous.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply and demand sides in the coming years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading the high-speed rail network, and facilitating the return of consumption. Demand-side measures include increasing social welfare coverage, reducing income inequality, and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture - Influence from consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences between different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. Chinese consumers, Western consumers, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand what to buy, where to buy it, or even how to buy it.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many Western elements to contemporary Chinese lifestyles, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Values family ties highly and is willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When making purchases, there are often long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles between different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on integrated internet technology platforms. The government's anti-monopoly policies aim to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but overly aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded regulations on internet microfinance and consumer credit platforms, but we believe the impact on consumption should be minimal, as Chinese household balance sheets generally appear healthy. However, if policies further tighten consumer credit, or even affect banking channels, it could have a negative impact on consumption growth.</p><p><b>(3) The relatively slow progress of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the amount of money people save to cope with future uncertainties, thereby boosting consumption. Therefore, if the progress of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns regarding big data:</b>One of China's major advantages is that it faces lower resistance in consumer data collection during the construction of smart cities. If the public becomes more concerned about data privacy, or if international data regulatory coordination mechanisms are upgraded, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analytics in the consumer sector. However, the widespread use of personal location technology and health codes during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased public acceptance of big data applications to some extent, thus reducing the risks in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence could lead to a more severe unemployment problem than anticipated, especially in the construction and low-value-added manufacturing sectors. Of course, we believe that vocational training and rapidly growing services can solve some of the problems, but if high technology is applied too quickly, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>","source":"lsy1628997733188","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying economic logic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying economic logic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances, and maintaining security. This will shift the distribution of economic benefits more towards workers, reducing corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The new goals bring about a reset of the underlying regulatory logic.</b></p><p>We are standing at a significant turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to focus more on sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's tightening of restrictions on fintech, big tech giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is a manifestation of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits towards workers, which will lead to a decline in the share of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalances, economic sustainability, and data and cybersecurity may rise, while high-end manufacturing, technological independence and control, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor the risk of possible \"over-regulation\". At the same time, we are also paying attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals that employee welfare issues in platform companies have been resolved, or speeches from influential policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the internet sector, which is an important weight of the China index and accounts for approximately 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margins of this sector remain highly uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, remain under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From prioritizing growth to balancing equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and self-control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy focus: social risk, national risk, financial risk, and environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every round of regulation in Chinese history has brought about a subversion of the underlying logic of a particular industry: mining, dairy, wine, cross-border investment, gaming, pharmaceuticals, and this time, the internet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry upheavals caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market volatility caused by excessive regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and the potential ultimate drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observable Event Resolution Signs:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main impact on the China equity index is on MSCI China (internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to understand China's logical reset</b></p><p>New Era, New Goals: We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a change in China's underlying logic and is not just targeting internet giants. Over the past decade, Beijing's core goals have been to maintain double-digit income growth and eliminate absolute poverty, giving top priority to economic growth. However, it has also brought about huge social imbalances, which has prompted the current government to shift to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and to introduce new government KPIs, including social balance, supply chain controllability, and data security.</p><p>Policy formulation over the past nine months reflects this goal. In short, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, allowing workers to share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to a systemic decline in valuations in some sectors. We believe that policymakers must face a serious balancing challenge: if China still hopes to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of the private sector to promote innovation, as well as facilitate the internationalization of the renminbi and capital flows. Although the new regulations impose restrictions on social responsibility and data usage, we believe there will be no significant impact on other equity segments.</p><p><b>However, this does not mean that there will be no volatility in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Much of the content of this regulation is actually old content, so why has it suddenly accelerated in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor and catering industry in 2013-14, foreign investment in 2016-17, games in 2018, and pharmaceuticals in 2018-19 mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to adjust portfolios: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policy factors (stocks related to people's livelihood and safety). Further focus: new economy sectors such as clean energy, data and cybersecurity, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chains, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform 2015-2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>A document titled<b>Consumption 2030: Service First</b>The report states that by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this transformation, services will create more value for GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, per capita household income in China will double by 2030, and purchasing power will be dominated by those aged 35-44 and over 55 (the baby boomers born in the 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>and<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that Chinese consumers' consumption concepts will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what is the main driving force behind this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes there are five factors: income, demographics, technology, policy, and culture. At the same time, the report also points out potential risks in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States as the world's largest consumer.</b></p><p>In this report, we updated our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that by 2030, China's average household income will rise from $6,000 to $12,000, with key drivers of growth being Urbanization 2.0, continued economic openness to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and ongoing reforms to attract foreign investment.</p><p>While an aging population will naturally increase consumption rates, Chinese policymakers are also striving to promote a domestic economic circulation strategy to unleash China's consumption potential, primarily to address the challenges posed to China's exports in a multipolar post-COVID era.</p><p><b>The main means of advancing this strategy are, on the one hand, digitalization to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical goods and services, and to support consumption anytime, anywhere; On the other hand, reforms are needed to eliminate bottlenecks affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect China's consumer market to double in size over the next decade to $12.7 trillion, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of $9.7 trillion.</p><p><b>This means that China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9% over the next decade, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in the world in terms of consumer market size.</b></p><p>China's consumer goods market has now surpassed that of the United States, making it the world's largest market. If service consumption is included in the statistics, the current size of the US consumer market is still significantly larger than that of China. However, if our predictions come true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the world's largest consumer market in ten years.</p><p>A key characteristic of the changes in China's consumer market over the next decade is that service consumption will exceed physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption during the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from Western countries.</b>In Western countries, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. The main reason is China's unique population structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden on middle-aged people to care for their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, the high degree of digitalization based on the mobile internet has greatly enhanced the convenience and speed of obtaining services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which sectors are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Our investment framework: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes across various industries. To better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four broad categories based on their product lines and the drivers of industry change:</p><p><b>➤ expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the coming years, structural growth will be expected in sectors such as property management, medical services, elderly care services, health insurance, education, domestic and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services, and local living services.</p><p><b>➤ evolution</b>(Mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>We will face structural changes in the coming years. It falls into two categories. First, there are evolving business models, such as integrated platforms, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of the C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, i.e., mass customization services) business model, and broader applications of AI, AR and VR.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(An industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that were still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence by 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(Business and consumer), matchmaking services, and consumers who are more concerned about Corporate Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Previous growth</b>(Those mature industries disrupted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of numerous industries based on the outlook for the next decade lays the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Next, we will further refine this classification system, analyzing the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can study a company's competitiveness within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment Conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect stable and rapid growth in institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart living (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), and life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms).</p><p>However, offline platforms, such as traditional automobiles and home appliances, will face disruption. We also expect some rapidly growing industries to face slower growth, such as mid-to-low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five drivers and potential risk points</b></p><p>Five key drivers for the growth and evolution of China's consumer market over the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income – The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by steady growth in service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, by 2030, per capita disposable income will double from the current $6,000 to $12,000. Based on international experience, when per capita disposable income reaches US$8,000-10,000, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. Over the next decade, the compound annual growth rate of China's service consumption is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of goods consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full implementation of the two-child policy, China's family planning policy led to an aging population and increased the care burden on the elderly population. Now, this phenomenon is likely to translate into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further deepened public awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become a turning point for the large-scale use of technology, and with the widespread application of basic technologies, the threshold for services will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Demographic characteristics – the most important generational transitions occur within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policies over the past few decades have led to an uneven distribution of the population across different age groups; The rapid changes in China's economy over the past few decades have also led to a different distribution of income levels among different age groups than in ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the most concentrated population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income levels, these two age groups will also be the two age groups with the highest disposable income at that time. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditures of people aged 35 to 44 are concentrated on family needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from being dominated by young people in 2020 to being dominated by family needs and retirement plans in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology - China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another perspective.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operational efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also very much in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aimed at super smart cities. This strategy aims to achieve faster, safer, greener, and more livable urban communities by leveraging digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends that promote consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of the traditional economy:</b>This will improve overall operational efficiency and enhance household spending power.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super apps, IoT-based smart homes, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy – Government support to unleash consumption potential</b></p><p>China’s 14 Five-Year Plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with a multipolar post-COVID world, and are also striving to advance a domestic economic circulation strategy to unleash China’s consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a relatively high level of 35%, indicating that the untapped consumption potential is still enormous.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply and demand sides in the coming years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading the high-speed rail network, and facilitating the return of consumption. Demand-side measures include increasing social welfare coverage, reducing income inequality, and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture - Influence from consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences between different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. Chinese consumers, Western consumers, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand what to buy, where to buy it, or even how to buy it.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many Western elements to contemporary Chinese lifestyles, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Values family ties highly and is willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When making purchases, there are often long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles between different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on integrated internet technology platforms. The government's anti-monopoly policies aim to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but overly aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded regulations on internet microfinance and consumer credit platforms, but we believe the impact on consumption should be minimal, as Chinese household balance sheets generally appear healthy. However, if policies further tighten consumer credit, or even affect banking channels, it could have a negative impact on consumption growth.</p><p><b>(3) The relatively slow progress of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the amount of money people save to cope with future uncertainties, thereby boosting consumption. Therefore, if the progress of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns regarding big data:</b>One of China's major advantages is that it faces lower resistance in consumer data collection during the construction of smart cities. If the public becomes more concerned about data privacy, or if international data regulatory coordination mechanisms are upgraded, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analytics in the consumer sector. However, the widespread use of personal location technology and health codes during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased public acceptance of big data applications to some extent, thus reducing the risks in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence could lead to a more severe unemployment problem than anticipated, especially in the construction and low-value-added manufacturing sectors. Of course, we believe that vocational training and rapidly growing services can solve some of the problems, but if high technology is applied too quickly, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0\">Alpha</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198913754","content_text":"来源｜MorganStanley\n翻译｜狮刀\n北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。\n01\n新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置\n我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会公平、数据安全，和自主可控。中国对于金融科技、大科技巨头、课后教育、数字货币，以及碳排放的限制升级正是这次逻辑重置的体现。\n经济方面的影响：在新的逻辑范式下，中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。我们看到和社会不平衡，经济可持续性，以及数据和网络安全相关的行业政策风险可能上行，而高端制造、科技自主可控、以及清洁能源有政策利好的支撑。我们仍然严密监控可能的“过度监管”风险。同时也关注可能的反转信号，包括例如，在港科技企业IPO、平台型企业雇员福利问题解决的清晰信号、或者有分量的政策制定者（top policymaker）的讲话。\n投资方面的影响：我们预计这次重置对于中国权益市场的估值和ERP会带来长久和深远的影响，但主要因为其影响在互联网板块，这是中国指数的重要权重，在MSCI China占比大约在40%到50%。这一板块未来收入和利润率的不确定性仍较大。\n挑战和机会：重数据型科技和平台企业，以及房地产企业仍然处于政策压制中。“新经济”板块会继续享受政策支持。\n从增长优先到兼顾公平：长达数十年的消除绝对贫困的努力之后新的目标是社会平等、数据安全，以及自主可控。\n\n\n四个政策关注的主要领域：社会风险、国家风险、金融风险、环境风险\n\n中国历史上每一次监管都带来某个行业底层逻辑的颠覆：采掘、乳制品、酒、跨境投资、游戏、医药、以及这次的互联网：\n\n过去历次监管带来的行业震荡：\n\n可能需要观察的风险点包括：过度监管带来的市场震荡、政策协调不足、政策沟通不足，以及最终可能对生产力的拖累：\n\n可以观察的事件解决路标：\n\n对中国权益指数的影响主要在MSCI China（互联网占比47%）：\n\n02\n怎样理解中国的逻辑重置\n新纪元新目标：我们相信近期的监管收紧反应了中国底层逻辑的改变，并不只是针对互联网巨头。在过去十年中北京的核心目标是保持双位数的收入增速，并消除绝对贫困，给予经济增速以最高权重。可是同时也带来了巨大的社会不均衡，这促使本届政府转向”共同富裕“（”getting rich together---common prosperity“）作为新的发展目标，并将包括社会平衡、供应链可控、数据安全等引入了新的政府KPI。\n过去9个月的政策制定反映了这一目标。 简单来说，我们认为中国正在平衡上升中的企业利润，和下降中的劳动者补偿，让劳动者更多分享到经济体发展的收益，这可能带来某些板块系统性的估值下降。我们认为政策制定者必须面临一个严峻的平衡挑战：如果中国仍希望能成为强大的经济体，就必须保证私营企业部分的活力，来促进创新，以及帮助人民币国际化和资本流动。尽管新的监管对社会责任和数据使用带来限制，但我们仍相信不会对其他权益板块有过大的影响。\n但这并不代表不会有权益市场的震荡：\n\n\n这次监管的很多内容实际都是老内容，为什么在过去9个月中突然加速？我们曾见过这一幕不知道多少次：之前06-08年的采掘行业，08-10年的乳制品行业，13-14年的高端白酒餐饮行业，16-17年的对外投资，18年的游戏，18-19年的药品，大多都存在了1-2年。\n如何在调仓上应对：仍需要暂时回避政策利空的行业板块（民生、安全相关的标的）。更多关注：清洁能源、数据和网络安全、高端制造、半导体供应链可控、创新生物药等新经济板块。\n\n03\n过去的几次政策影响经验\n2012-2016年：反腐败\n\n\n\n\n2015-2018年供给侧改革：\n\n\n\n\n\n\n摩根士丹利发布了一份名为《消费2030：“服务”至上》的报告，报告称，到2030年，中国的消费格局将发生巨大变革。这场变革带来的结果是，服务为GDP创造的价值将超过商品。\n根据摩根士丹利预计，到2030年，中国家庭人均收入将翻一番，而购买力将由35-44岁和55岁以上年龄段（1960年代出生的婴儿潮一代及其子女）主导，此外，到了2030年，消费重点将从现在的“年轻消费者”转向为“家庭需求和退休消费”。\n以“情感健康”和“自我实现”为目标的消费将日益突出，消费者将越来越依赖一个“全自动化”的社会。摩根士丹利认为，中国消费者的消费理念将引领全球。\n那么这场变革的主要驱动力是什么？摩根士丹利认为有五个因素：收入、人口特性、技术、政策和文化，同时，报告也指出了消费发展过程中可能存在的风险点。\n\n以下为报告的部分摘要：\n中国将超越美国成为全球第一大消费国\n在这份报告中，基于家庭收入和政策动向方面的变化，我们更新了我们对中国消费市场的预测。我们认为到2030年中国的家庭平均收入将从6000美元上升到12000美元，增长的重要驱动力为城镇化2.0、经济持续开放以保持中国供应链的国际竞争力、以及持续的改革以吸引外资流入。\n尽管人口老龄化会自然地提升消费率，中国的政策制定者也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力，主要目的是应对一个多极化的后新冠时代给中国出口带来的挑战。\n推进这个战略的主要手段一方面为数字化，以提升电子商务在实物类和服务类两方面的渗透率，支持随时随地的消费；另一方面是通过改革消除影响消费的瓶颈因素，比如物流、进口税，以及户口等方面。\n因此我们预期中国的消费市场规模将在下一个十年中翻倍，达到12.7万亿美元，这比我们2017年做的预测9.7万亿美元高出30%。\n这意味着下一个十年里中国的消费市场规模将保持年化7.9%的增长率，成为全球消费市场规模增长最快的国家之一。\n中国的商品类消费市场规模目前已经超过美国为其全球第一大市场。如果把服务类消费统计在内，当前美国消费市场规模仍显著大于中国。但是如果我们的预测成为现实，即使是把服务类消费统计在内，十年后中国也将成为世界上最大的消费市场。\n下一个十年里中国消费市场变化的一个重要特征是服务类消费超过实物类消费。\n我们现在预期服务类消费的占比将从当前的45%提升至52%，年化增长率为9.2%，超过同期实物类消费6.7%的增长率。\n这一点跟西方国家有所不同。在西方国家，当家庭平均收入达到8000到10000美元时，服务类消费占比的提升就基本上停滞了，但是在中国我们观察到稳定的提升趋势，主要原因一方面是中国独特的人口结构，中国持续多年的一胎化政策极大地加重了壮年人口照看年老父母的负担，因此带来了更多的服务消费的需求。另一方面是基于移动互联网的高度数字化，使获得服务的便利性和快捷性大大增强。\n\n哪些赛道值得投？\n我们使用的投资框架：随着中国的消费市场增长从实物驱动转向服务驱动，而且关注点从年轻人的消费转向家庭需求和退休计划，我们预期各行各业也会有相应的变化。为了更好地分析这些变化，我们把诸多的行业基于他们的产品线和行业变化的驱动力，分为四个大的类别：\n➤ 扩张（服务相关的行业主要落在这个大类）\n在未来几年里将面临结构化的增长，比如：物业管理，医疗服务，养老服务，医疗保险，教育，国内旅游和入境游，旅游购物尤其是免税店，家庭便利服务和本地生活服务。\n➤ 进化（主要由新商业模式驱动）\n未来几年将面临结构性的变化。又分两类。一是进化的商业模式，比如:集成平台，供应链管理和销售渠道管理服务，C2M（Consumer2Manufacturer，即大规模定制化服务）商业模式的落地，更广泛的AI，AR和VR应用。\n➤ 新兴（由技术和服务相结合驱动的行业）\n在2020年还规模有限，但是2030年之前将具备重大商业影响力的行业。比如：情感伴侣，康复医疗服务，服务机器人（商业和消费类）,婚恋服务，对公司的社会责任感（ESG，Environmental，Social，and Corporate Governance，即环保，社会责任，和公司治理）更加注重的消费者。\n➤ 前增长（那些被人口结构变化和技术颠覆的成熟行业）\n比如：低端酒精饮料，基础必需品，传统汽车，传统家电。\n\n以上基于对下一个十年的展望作出的对诸多行业的分类为我们的自上而下的选股方法论打下了基础。\n下面我们把这个分类体系进一步细化，把每个大类里的公司通过四个要素维度来分析，以构成我们针对个股进行研究的框架。这四要素分别是：品牌，渠道，技术和服务。有了这个框架，我们就可以对一家公司在行业内的竞争力进行研究。\n投资结论：\n我们预期机构化的服务（教育，集成平台，医疗保健，养老服务，医疗保险，供应链管理），智慧生活（数字化物业管理，智能家居，和电动汽车），生活体验增强服务/产品（情感伴侣类，比如宠物，玩具，康复医疗服务，服务机器人，和社交平台）会有稳定和快速的增长。\n但是离线的平台比如传统的汽车和家电，将面临被颠覆的命运。我们还预计当前在快速增长的一些行业会面临增速放缓，比如中低端酒精饮料，基本必需品，和传统家庭用品。\n 五大驱动因素和可能的风险点\n下一个十年内中国消费市场规模增长和模式演化的五大驱动因素：\n（1）  收入-- 变成高收入国家的过程中通常伴随着服务类消费的稳定增长。\n根据我们的计算，到2030年，人均可支配收入将从现在的6000美元翻倍到12000美元。从国际经验来看，当人均可支配收入达到8000-10000美元时，服务消费的份额会稳定增长，未来十年中，中国服务消费的年均复合增长率有望达到9.2%，超过商品消费的6.7%。\n该趋势可能与以下两个因素有关：\n1，二胎全面开放之前，中国的计划生育政策导致人口老龄化加剧，增加了高龄人口的护理负担，如今，这一现象很可能会转化成为更多的服务消费需求。\n2，2020年的新冠疫情促使公众对大数据等技术的认知度进一步加深，这一年可能成为技术大规模使用的拐点，而伴随着基础技术的广泛应用，服务的门槛也会不断降低。\n（2）人口特性–最重要的世代转换发生在2-3年内\n过去几十年中国人口政策的变化导致人口在各个年龄层的分布不均匀；过去几十年中国经济的快速变迁也导致收入水平在各个年龄层之间的分布跟普通的经济体不太一样。\n根据我们的研究，到2030年，人口分布最集中的两个年龄段分别是35到44岁和55岁以上。\n而从收入水平的角度看，届时这两个年龄层也恰好是可支配收入最高的两个年龄段。从消费行为角度看，35到44岁人群的主要消费支出集中在家庭需要，而55岁以上则主要是老龄化和退休人群。\n基于这样的分析，我们得出结论，认为中国消费市场将从2020年的以年轻人为主力过渡到2030年的以家庭需求和退休计划为主力的形态。\n（3）技术-中国独特的消费增长路径\n数字化也能从另一个角度有力地支持中国将变成消费驱动的经济体这样一个结论。\n数字化在中国极高的渗透率对toC公司的经营效率以及消费者和销售渠道之间的互动效率都有很大的提高。\n数字化也非常符合中国政府以超级智慧城市为目标的城镇化战略。这个战略希望用借助于5G,云计算，大数据，物联网和人工智能这样一些数字技术实现更快、更安全、更环保、更宜居的城市社区。\n具体地说，我们看到两种不同的促进消费的趋势：\n1.传统经济的数字化：这会整体上提升运营效率并增强家庭的消费能力。\n2.超级智慧城市中新的生活方式：下一代技术的广泛应用可以支持随时随地的消费。这些技术包括：超级APP，基于物联网的智能家居，人工智能和大数据分析。\n（4）政策--政府支持以释放消费潜力\n中国的14个五年计划将专注于发展国内需求驱动的可持续的增长，以应对多极化的后新冠世界，也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力。\n日本在1990年人口开始老龄化的时候，城镇化率已经达到77%，家庭储蓄率处在17%这样一个相对低的水平。\n而中国目前的城镇化率只有61%，家庭储蓄率处在35%的较高水准，看起来可挖掘的消费潜力还非常巨大。\n所以我们预计在未来数年中会看到供给端和需求端都会有各种措施来消除消费瓶颈。供应端的措施包括提升新基建、升级高铁网络、为消费回岸提供便利。需求端的措施则包括提高社会福利的覆盖率、降低收入不平等、以及促进职业培训。\n（5）文化-来自于消费者价值观的影响\n不同国家之间的文化差异可能是导致不同的消费行为的重要原因。买什么，在哪里买，甚至怎么买，中国的消费者和西方国家的消费者，甚至亚洲其他国家的消费者的行为都可能不懂。\n虽然全球化为当代中国的生活方式带来了很多西方元素，但是我们仍然可以看到中国的消费者根植于中国独特的本地文化。\n1.非常看重家庭纽带，愿意为家庭成员提供相当大的金钱上的支持。\n2.消费的时候经常会有长远的目标。\n3.不同年龄层之间生活方式有显著的差异（比如在线平台的使用和外出旅行需求）\n\n可能的风险点：\n（1）针对集成技术平台的反垄断措施：服务相关消费的快速渗透和增长高度依赖于集成化的互联网技术平台。政府发布的反垄断政策旨在防止大型科技公司对市场的垄断，促进健康的市场竞争，但是过于激进的政策也有可能延宕服务相关消费的增长。\n（2）消费信贷的收紧：政策制定者最近升级了对互联网小贷和消费信贷平台的监管，但是我们认为对消费的影响应该不大，因为中国家庭资产负债表整体看上去还很健康。但是如果政策对消费信贷进一步收紧，甚至影响到银行渠道的话，那可能会对消费的增长形成负面影响。\n（3）相对迟缓的社会保障改革推进：我们相信更普遍和均匀的社保覆盖，尤其是在那些关键的都市圈里，会有效地降低人们为应对未来的不确定性而存起来的钱，从而促进消费。因此，在这些方面的改革的推进如果比预期要慢，则会影响消费潜力的释放。\n（4）针对大数据的隐私顾虑：中国拥有的一大优势是在建设智慧城市过程中在消费者数据收集方面面临较低的阻力。如果大众对数据隐私更加关注，或者国际间数据监管协调机制面临升级，则会导致对基于大数据分析的诸多新技术在消费领域应用的限制。不过，在新冠疫情期间个人定位技术和健康码的广泛应用在一定程度上提高了大众对大数据应用的的接受度，因此降低了这方面的风险。\n（5）无意中引发的社会问题：自动化和人工智能的广泛应用可能会导致比预想的要严重的失业问题，尤其是在建筑和低附加值制造领域。当然我们相信职业培训和快速增长的服务可以解决一部分问题，但是如果高科技的应用过快，失业导致的社会摩擦仍然有抑制消费增长的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144327883,"gmtCreate":1626269560042,"gmtModify":1703756722168,"author":{"id":"4087176588976590","authorId":"4087176588976590","name":"雷鸟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a768051b2308514dc4c340afd775767","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087176588976590","idStr":"4087176588976590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144327883","repostId":"1110863192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}