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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-07-18
??????
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-07-08
666
SUPER HEAVY SIGNAL! Gonna cut the RRR? A50 Sürge, the latest interpretation is coming!
刚刚，国务院常务会议最新定调，要降准了！
SUPER HEAVY SIGNAL! Gonna cut the RRR? A50 Sürge, the latest interpretation is coming!
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-07-04
???
OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?
由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。 此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减
OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-30
??
Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day
北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。 上市前夕发行规模缩减7成 叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示
Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-30
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-24
??
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-22
666
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-22
tesla
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-22
?
Opening: Education stocks bounce across the board as HSI opens 0.3% higher
6月22日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.3%报28575点，国指涨0.19%报10568点，恒生科技指数涨0.07%报7961点。盘面上，医药、能源股领涨，爱康医疗涨逾10%；香港中华煤气、中国石油
Opening: Education stocks bounce across the board as HSI opens 0.3% higher
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AndrewLam
AndrewLam
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2021-06-20
??
After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?
德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。
After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?
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Gonna cut the RRR? A50 Sürge, the latest interpretation is coming!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国基金报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 21:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Taylor On the 7th, a day when A-share shorts were blown up, at night, there was another major benefit. Just now, the State Council executive meeting set the latest tone, and the RRR will be reduced! Standing Committee of the State Council: Use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in due course to further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Premier * of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on July 7th to deploy and further promote efficient and convenient medical insurance services; Determine some policies and measures to strengthen the protection of the rights and interests of workers in new employment forms; It was decided to increase financial support for the real economy and introduce measures to support carbon emission reduction. Among them, there are several key contents related to investment....</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/viS8mfL67hNFrtk40iGUZQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/viS8mfL67hNFrtk40iGUZQ\">中国基金报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/viS8mfL67hNFrtk40iGUZQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176820006","content_text":"作者：泰勒\n7日，A股空头被打爆的一天，晚上，又来重大利好。刚刚，国务院常务会议最新定调，要降准了！\n\n国常会：适时运用降准等货币政策工具\n进一步加强金融对实体经济特别是中小微企业的支持\n国务院总理李克强7月7日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署进一步推动医保服务高效便民；确定加强新就业形态劳动者权益保障的若干政策措施；决定加大金融对实体经济支持，推出支持碳减排的措施。\n其中，有几个重点内容跟投资有关。基金君帮大家提炼一下。\n1、针对大宗商品价格上涨对企业生产经营的影响，要在坚持不搞大水漫灌的基础上，保持货币政策稳定性、增强有效性\n2、适时运用降准等货币政策工具，进一步加强金融对实体经济特别是中小微企业的支持，促进综合融资成本稳中有降。\n3、推动绿色低碳发展，设立支持碳减排货币政策工具，以稳步有序、精准直达方式，支持清洁能源、节能环保、碳减排技术的发展，并撬动更多社会资金促进碳减排。\n4、在试点基础上，于今年7月择时启动发电行业全国碳排放权交易市场上线交易。\n5、稳步扩大行业覆盖范围，以市场机制控制和减少温室气体排放。\n以下是会议全文。\n李克强主持召开国务院常务会议\n部署进一步推动医保服务高效便民\n确定加强新就业形态劳动者权益保障的若干政策措施\n决定加大金融对实体经济支持 推出支持碳减排的措施\n国务院总理李克强7月7日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署进一步推动医保服务高效便民；确定加强新就业形态劳动者权益保障的若干政策措施；决定加大金融对实体经济支持，推出支持碳减排的措施。\n会议指出，按照党中央、国务院部署，优化医保便民服务，有利于更好保障群众健康、提升获得感。会议确定，一是重点面向数亿流动人口特别是农民工等群体，加快推进住院、门诊费用异地就医结算服务，确保今年底前各省份60%以上的县至少有1家普通门诊费用跨省联网机构、明年底前每个县至少有1家定点医疗机构能够提供包括门诊费用在内的医疗费用跨省直接结算服务。二是优化定点医疗机构总额预算管理，推进现有试点形成经验，抓紧推广。对社会办医疗机构申请定点医药机构，做到一视同仁。引入商业保险机构参与医保服务，丰富保险品种，提高医保精算水平。规范和压减医保支付自由裁量权，防止医疗机构年底突击“控费”。三是统一规范和优化医保办理流程，简化办理环节和材料，推行医保报销一次告知、一表申请、一窗办成。依托“互联网+”，实现医保服务“网上办”、“掌上办”。四是强化全过程监管，完善法规，依法严厉打击欺诈骗保、诱导住院、虚开发票、滥用药物等行为，守好用好群众“保命钱”。\n会议指出，维护好新就业形态劳动者劳动保障权益，有利于促进灵活就业、增加就业岗位和群众收入。会议确定，一是适应新就业形态，推动建立多种形式、有利于保障劳动者权益的劳动关系。对采取劳务派遣、外包等用工方式的，相关企业应合理保障劳动者权益。二是企业应当按时足额支付劳动报酬，不得制定损害劳动者安全健康的考核指标。督促平台企业制定和完善订单分配、抽成比例等制度规则和算法，听取劳动者代表等意见，并将结果公示。不得违法限制劳动者在多平台就业。三是以出行、外卖、即时配送等行业为重点，开展灵活就业人员职业伤害保障试点。四是建立适合新就业形态的职业技能培训模式，符合条件的按规定给予补贴。五是放开灵活就业人员在就业地参加基本养老、基本医疗保险的户籍限制。\n会议决定，针对大宗商品价格上涨对企业生产经营的影响，要在坚持不搞大水漫灌的基础上，保持货币政策稳定性、增强有效性，适时运用降准等货币政策工具，进一步加强金融对实体经济特别是中小微企业的支持，促进综合融资成本稳中有降。同时推动绿色低碳发展，设立支持碳减排货币政策工具，以稳步有序、精准直达方式，支持清洁能源、节能环保、碳减排技术的发展，并撬动更多社会资金促进碳减排。在试点基础上，于今年7月择时启动发电行业全国碳排放权交易市场上线交易。下一步还将稳步扩大行业覆盖范围，以市场机制控制和减少温室气体排放。\n会议还研究了其他事项。\n远超市场预期\n华泰固收做了个统计。大家参考一下。\n\n降准是指央行降低法定存款准备金率，是一种扩张性货币政策。会使市场中的信贷规模增大、货币量加大、货币流动性加强、刺激市场经济增长等等。对于股票市场而言，这样的情况具有市场炒作性。会使上市公司可贷款性加强、企业流通发展资金增多、有效缓解企业资金压力等等。\n这一次突然说要降准，其实远超市场预期。\n毕竟2021年上半年流动性环境相对宽松，实际上从 2018 年 3 月后货币政策环境就持续处于宽松区间，大型银行的存款准备金率从当时的 17% 下降到现在的 12.5%附近，中小型银行的存款准备金率已降至 9.5%附近，期间配合数次普惠金融定向降准。目前的政策利率环境从长周期看也处于历史低位，这也决定了货币政策的宽松空间有限。\n而在国务院消息出来之后，A50反应剧烈！可以期待一下8日的A股了。\n\n为何要降准？\n国泰君安分析师覃汉团队分析称，“降准”一词道出，或许才是周三行情的正解。市场主流观点也是质疑降息的可能性，但考虑到7月4000亿MLF到期，到期量是6月的2倍，下半年到期量压力不小，降准置换的可能性确实存在。\n覃汉团队称，“下半年我国经济增速可能放缓至5-6%”、甚至四季度破5%的风险是存在的。政府全年经济增长目标是6%以上，而市场一致预期在8-8.5%附近，因此一方面需要警惕政府下半年基建稳增长发力不及预期，另一方面也要看到消费复苏持续乏力、出口同比增速高位回落的风险。\n基于下半年基本面下行压力显现，货币政策宽松的想象空间已经打开。至于是否需要“合理适度降息”这么强烈的宽松信号来对冲，那就是仁者见仁的问题。在防风险的基调下，国内局部资产泡沫已经得到遏制，资产价格相对平稳。如果经济下行压力加大，运用降准等手段来适当对冲是合理的。\n考虑到市场对下半年资金面预期整体是中性偏紧的，国常会定调后将会出现反向修正，在未来很长一段时间内资金面大概率会维持相对宽松，带动利率进一步下台阶。\n此外，虽然多数投资者不一定认同“目前我国合理适度降息可为未来应对美联储加息预留政策空间”，但我们想强调的是，随着美联储货币政策转向节奏放慢，国内货币政策也有进一步宽松的想象空间。美联储未来政策转向带来的溢出效应，在一定程度上能被本轮中美经济和政策周期的错位所对冲。\n覃汉团队认为，“降准”预期意味着债市的“势”在多方，国债期货的放量突破吹响了利率加速下行的号角，“欠配”压力下之前看空的机构将会进场做多。下半年经济下行压力会推动货币边际宽松，这一看多的中长期逻辑将会逐渐被市场认可，债券牛市格局将会继续演绎，10年国债利率跌至2.8~3.0%区间指日可待。\n盛松成等：下半年货币政策宜稳中趋松，为未来收紧预留空间\n中国人民银行调查统计司原司长盛松成认为，2021年一季度中国GDP同比增长18.3%。但经济恢复基础尚不牢固，发展不平衡不充分的问题仍较突出。货币政策应积极应对，未雨绸缪。\n更为重要的是，下半年是中国货币政策稳中趋松，并合理、适度降低利率水平的重要窗口期，也可为未来收紧货币政策预留空间。\n首先，要警惕美联储货币政策转向对中国的溢出效应。\n其次，目前中国短期通胀压力不大，资产价格相对平稳，这是下半年货币政策稳中趋松的必要条件。\n再次，2021年中国财政政策力度弱于2020年，货币政策应给予配合和支持。\n近期，存款利率自律上限由原来的基准利率一定倍数形成，改为基准利率加一定基点来确定。新的政策实施后，短期存款利率有所上升，长期存款利率下调。短期存款利率上升有利于抑制通胀；长期存款利率下降，意味着长期贷款利率也可以下降，进而促进实体经济投资。依据中国目前的货币政策传导机制，人民银行通过中期借贷便利操作(MLF)引导贷款市场报价利率(LPR)，从而影响实际贷款利率。但目前LPR已连续14个月不变。\n长期以来，中国更加重视实体经济的贷款利率，而货币市场主要利率DR007、R007往往波动较大，利率传导不畅。货币市场利率是银行等金融机构重要的运营成本之一。合理、适度降低利率，重视货币市场利率引导，有助于减轻银行业、尤其是中小银行的压力，防范金融风险，更好地服务实体经济。\n总之，促进经济全面恢复和稳定增长依然是目前中国宏观调控的首要任务。下半年货币政策宜稳中趋松，引导利率合理、适度下行。待经济全面恢复、需求强劲、物价较快上涨时，中国货币政策也将有充足的收紧空间，并能有效应对发达国家货币政策转向带来的外溢效应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152706316,"gmtCreate":1625352363535,"gmtModify":1703740545076,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152706316","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153968032,"gmtCreate":1625005643926,"gmtModify":1703849770986,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153968032","repostId":"1106873810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106873810","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624989419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106873810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 01:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106873810","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示","content":"<p>On June 30th, Beijing time, Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising by 21% on the first day. The previous IPO issue price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the eve of listing, the issuance scale was reduced by 70%</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus on the eve of its listing. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai reduced its goal of listing and financing in the United States to about a quarter of the original, that is, it seeks to raise up to 94.4 million US dollars, which is 74% lower than the originally planned financing of 357 million US dollars. The number of depositary shares (ADS) issued has also been cut from 14 million shares to 3.7 million shares, with a price range of 23.50 to 25.50 US dollars.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Grocery Buying</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery app. Consumers can buy fresh food on demand through the \"front warehouse\" network. The so-called front warehouse is a warehouse located close to residential areas according to the established strategy, so as to ensure that Ding Dong's groceries can be delivered to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services have now covered a range of major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.</p><p>Ding Dong Maicai was born in 2017. Liang Changlin, the founder and CEO, had many successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital, including Sequoia China and Qiming Venture Capital. In addition, such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital and Dachen Caizhi were also among the shareholders of the company. With the support of strong capital, it took Ding Dong only seven months to buy groceries, and the number of its front warehouses tripled to 345.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, against the background of the outbreak of COVID-19, Dingdong Maicai had to execute about 300,000 orders every day in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year also reached about 1.7 billion US dollars. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business has covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with about 1,000 front-end warehouses and a monthly user base of about 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, the main competitors of Dingdong Maicai include Alibaba's Box Horse, Meituan Maicai, Daily Youxian and JD.COM Daojia.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of Dingdong Maicai can be roughly summarized as follows: the revenue has grown rapidly, but it is suspected to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to expand, and the net loss ratio fluctuated; The burning of money is considerable, and the free cash flow is still negative.</p><p>Specifically, in 2020, Dingdong's grocery revenue reached 11.336 billion yuan, a 192.16% increase from 3.88 billion yuan in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's operating loss was RMB3.162 billion, representing an increase of 78.42% from RMB1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's operating loss was RMB1.334 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 352.20%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss was RMB3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% from RMB1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's net loss was RMB1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, the net loss rate of Dingdong Maicai was 28.0%, which was significantly lower than 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss rate soared from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and cash and equivalents held of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company's free cash flow was-$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis Comments</b></p><p>According to the established strategy, the profit of Dingdong Maicai mainly comes from the sales of fresh food and other commodities completed through app. However, at present, they are far from achieving profitability, and they can't see a clear roadmap, so that the front warehouse model itself adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors is questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>So far, Ding Dong has failed to achieve profitability, and from the financial data, their losses even have the momentum of expanding, and there is no clear profit prospect at all.</p><p>Although the market where Ding Dong groceries is located has a bright future in theory, the fierce competition and low profit margins here are well known. For example, it is reported that the order execution cost of Ding Dong's grocery purchase, including distribution fee, packaging fee, logistics cost, etc., will be twice the net revenue of the order itself in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how the number of orders of the company grows, it is not enough for Ding Dong to turn losses into profits in a short time, because the fact is that the more orders, the greater the loss. In fact, the front warehouse mode itself is a \"gold-swallowing beast\", and it is already a severe challenge for the company to control the burning speed of this mode.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDing Dong Maicai officially landed on NYSE and opened 21% on the first day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 01:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 30th, Beijing time, Ding Dong Maicai officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising by 21% on the first day. The previous IPO issue price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the eve of listing, the issuance scale was reduced by 70%</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus on the eve of its listing. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai reduced its goal of listing and financing in the United States to about a quarter of the original, that is, it seeks to raise up to 94.4 million US dollars, which is 74% lower than the originally planned financing of 357 million US dollars. The number of depositary shares (ADS) issued has also been cut from 14 million shares to 3.7 million shares, with a price range of 23.50 to 25.50 US dollars.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly issue 14 million American depositary shares. At that time, it could raise nearly $360 million according to the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the last announced fundraising scale was reduced to a quarter of the previous quota, that is, the overall reduction was over 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Grocery Buying</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery app. Consumers can buy fresh food on demand through the \"front warehouse\" network. The so-called front warehouse is a warehouse located close to residential areas according to the established strategy, so as to ensure that Ding Dong's groceries can be delivered to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services have now covered a range of major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.</p><p>Ding Dong Maicai was born in 2017. Liang Changlin, the founder and CEO, had many successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital, including Sequoia China and Qiming Venture Capital. In addition, such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital and Dachen Caizhi were also among the shareholders of the company. With the support of strong capital, it took Ding Dong only seven months to buy groceries, and the number of its front warehouses tripled to 345.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, against the background of the outbreak of COVID-19, Dingdong Maicai had to execute about 300,000 orders every day in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year also reached about 1.7 billion US dollars. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business has covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with about 1,000 front-end warehouses and a monthly user base of about 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, the main competitors of Dingdong Maicai include Alibaba's Box Horse, Meituan Maicai, Daily Youxian and JD.COM Daojia.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>The recent financial performance of Dingdong Maicai can be roughly summarized as follows: the revenue has grown rapidly, but it is suspected to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to expand, and the net loss ratio fluctuated; The burning of money is considerable, and the free cash flow is still negative.</p><p>Specifically, in 2020, Dingdong's grocery revenue reached 11.336 billion yuan, a 192.16% increase from 3.88 billion yuan in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's operating loss was RMB3.162 billion, representing an increase of 78.42% from RMB1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's operating loss was RMB1.334 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 352.20%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss was RMB3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% from RMB1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's net loss was RMB1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, the net loss rate of Dingdong Maicai was 28.0%, which was significantly lower than 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss rate soared from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and cash and equivalents held of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the Company's free cash flow was-$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis Comments</b></p><p>According to the established strategy, the profit of Dingdong Maicai mainly comes from the sales of fresh food and other commodities completed through app. However, at present, they are far from achieving profitability, and they can't see a clear roadmap, so that the front warehouse model itself adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors is questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>So far, Ding Dong has failed to achieve profitability, and from the financial data, their losses even have the momentum of expanding, and there is no clear profit prospect at all.</p><p>Although the market where Ding Dong groceries is located has a bright future in theory, the fierce competition and low profit margins here are well known. For example, it is reported that the order execution cost of Ding Dong's grocery purchase, including distribution fee, packaging fee, logistics cost, etc., will be twice the net revenue of the order itself in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how the number of orders of the company grows, it is not enough for Ding Dong to turn losses into profits in a short time, because the fact is that the more orders, the greater the loss. In fact, the front warehouse mode itself is a \"gold-swallowing beast\", and it is already a severe challenge for the company to control the burning speed of this mode.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bdbf77f2a44d0a051afa32e60a46fbf","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106873810","content_text":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示，叮咚买菜将在美国上市融资的目标降低到了原来的四分之一左右，即寻求至多融资9440万美元，比原计划融资的3.57亿美元下降了74%，存托股票(ADS) 发行数量也从1400万股砍到了370万股，价格区间为23.50美元至25.50美元。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。\n关于叮咚买菜\n叮咚买菜总部位于上海，运营着自己的买菜app，消费者可以通过“前置仓”网络购买按需生鲜食品。所谓前置仓，是按照既定策略配置在接近居民区的仓库，确保叮咚买菜能够按照承诺，在三十分钟内送货上门。他们的服务目前已经覆盖了上海、北京、深圳和杭州等一系列主要城市。\n叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，创始人兼首席执行官梁昌霖之前就有多次成功创业的经历，因此很快就吸引了一系列风投资本的支持，包括红杉中国、启明创投等，此外诸如老虎环球、高榕资本、达晨财智等也都在公司股东之列。在雄厚的资本支持下，叮咚买菜只用了七个月时间，就让其前置仓数量增长了三倍，达到了345处。\n据报道，2020年2月，在新冠病毒疫情大爆发的背景下，叮咚买菜在上海每天都要执行大约30万笔订单，公司当年的总营收也达到了大约17亿美元。截至2021年1月，叮咚买菜的业务已经覆盖全国近三十个城市，拥有大约一千家前置仓，每月用户群达到大约690万。\n在这个领域当中，叮咚买菜主要的竞争对手包括阿里巴巴旗下盒马、美团买菜、每日优鲜和京东到家等。\n财务表现\n叮咚买菜近期的财务表现可以大致概括如下：营收高速增长，但疑似已经见顶；运营亏损和净亏损持续扩大，净亏损率起伏不定；烧钱可观，自由现金流依然为负数。\n具体而言，2020年当中，叮咚买菜营收达到113.36亿元人民币，较之2019年的38.80亿元猛增192.16%，2021年第一季度，公司营收38.02亿元，同比增长46.01%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜运营亏损31.62亿元人民币，较之2019年的17.41亿元扩大78.42%，2021年第一季度，公司运营亏损13.34亿元，同比扩大352.20%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损31.75亿元人民币，较之2019年的18.73亿元扩大69.51%，2021年第一季度，公司净亏损13.85亿元，同比扩大465.31%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损率28.0%，较之2019年的48.3%大幅降低，但是2021年第一季度，净亏损率又从前一年同期的9.4%猛增到了36.4%。\n截至2021年3月31日，叮咚买菜总负债8.98亿美元，持有现金及等价物9.73亿美元。截至2021年3月31日的十二个月当中，公司自由现金流-1.55亿美元。\n分析评论\n按照既定策略，叮咚买菜的利润主要是来自于通过app完成的生鲜食品和其他各种商品的销售，只是目前，他们还远没有到实现盈利的地步，也看不到清晰的路线图，以至于叮咚买菜和其他竞争对手所采用的前置仓模式本身，都不时受到市场观察家们的质疑。\n迄今为止，叮咚买菜都未能实现盈利，而且从财务数据看，他们的亏损甚至还有扩大的势头，根本看不到明确的盈利前景。\n叮咚买菜所在的市场虽然理论上说来前途远大，但是这里的竞争之激烈和利润率之低也是人尽皆知。比如据报道，叮咚买菜的订单执行成本包括配送费、包装费、物流成本等在内，在2020年内要两倍于订单本身的净营收。\n这也就意味着，不管公司的订单数量如何增长，都不足以让叮咚买菜在短期之内扭亏为盈，因为事实就是，订单越多，亏损越大。事实上，前置仓模式本身就是一头“吞金兽”，要控制这种模式的烧钱速度，已经是摆在公司面前的严峻挑战。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153969666,"gmtCreate":1625005479955,"gmtModify":1703849767997,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f672dbbbc9a06729483a7d62a9aec87d","width":"1125","height":"2685"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153969666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121473371,"gmtCreate":1624491036493,"gmtModify":1703838046024,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121473371","repostId":"1161959795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120256776,"gmtCreate":1624325645495,"gmtModify":1703833505904,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120256776","repostId":"1128496063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120259278,"gmtCreate":1624325532394,"gmtModify":1703833499874,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tesla","listText":"tesla","text":"tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120259278","repostId":"2145771034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120227303,"gmtCreate":1624325483702,"gmtModify":1703833495990,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4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09:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Education stocks bounce across the board as HSI opens 0.3% higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170012957","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月22日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.3%报28575点，国指涨0.19%报10568点，恒生科技指数涨0.07%报7961点。盘面上，医药、能源股领涨，爱康医疗涨逾10%；香港中华煤气、中国石油","content":"<p>On June 22nd, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.3% to 28,575 points, the State Index rising 0.19% to 10,568 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.07% to 7,961 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46773ad85a1f327f8173d4e5f9589ca4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the disk, pharmaceutical and energy stocks led the gains, and Aikang Medical rose by more than 10%; Hong Kong and China Gas and PetroChina both rose more than 2%, leading the gains in Hang Seng Index components. Education stocks that were weak in the early stage opened higher collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">Oriental Education in China</a>It rose by more than 4%; Oil stocks, photovoltaic glass stocks, gas stocks, wind power stocks and biotechnology stocks generally rose, and three barrels of oil strengthened obviously; Big Tech Stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Small open low, Meituan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$(03690)$</a>up 0.33%; The blockchain sector plunged,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01611\">Huobi Technology</a>It fell nearly 10%, and aviation stocks and pharmaceutical stocks generally fell.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Education stocks bounce across the board as HSI opens 0.3% higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Education stocks bounce across the board as HSI opens 0.3% higher\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 09:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 22nd, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.3% to 28,575 points, the State Index rising 0.19% to 10,568 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.07% to 7,961 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46773ad85a1f327f8173d4e5f9589ca4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the disk, pharmaceutical and energy stocks led the gains, and Aikang Medical rose by more than 10%; Hong Kong and China Gas and PetroChina both rose more than 2%, leading the gains in Hang Seng Index components. Education stocks that were weak in the early stage opened higher collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">Oriental Education in China</a>It rose by more than 4%; Oil stocks, photovoltaic glass stocks, gas stocks, wind power stocks and biotechnology stocks generally rose, and three barrels of oil strengthened obviously; Big Tech Stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Small open low, Meituan<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$(03690)$</a>up 0.33%; The blockchain sector plunged,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01611\">Huobi Technology</a>It fell nearly 10%, and aviation stocks and pharmaceutical stocks generally fell.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSI":"恒生指数","02833":"恒指ETF","01789":"爱康医疗"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170012957","content_text":"6月22日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.3%报28575点，国指涨0.19%报10568点，恒生科技指数涨0.07%报7961点。盘面上，医药、能源股领涨，爱康医疗涨逾10%；香港中华煤气、中国石油股份均涨逾2%，领涨恒指成分股。前期弱势的教育股集体高开，新东方涨近6%，中国东方教育涨超4%；石油股、光伏玻璃股、燃气股、风电股、生物科技股普涨，三桶油走强明显；大型科技股阿里巴巴、小米、腾讯小幅低开，美团$(03690)$上涨0.33%；区块链板块重挫，火币科技大跌近10%，航空股、药品股普跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"01789":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164609748,"gmtCreate":1624197098184,"gmtModify":1703830478006,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164609748","repostId":"2144709321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144709321","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624167977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144709321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 13:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144709321","media":"智通财经网","summary":"德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。","content":"<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded the biggest one-day increase since the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in March last year, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has fallen to the lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to new lows since March last year, but the Nasdaq has hit a record high.</p><p>Why is the market doing so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the flattening of the yield curve shows that the Fed has made a major policy mistake. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same thesis we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why does the market have such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>US dollar surge: The performance of the US dollar surge is completely in line with the traditional view that the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index. Expectations of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, underpinning the recent strong performance of the dollar. Even if the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond did not hit a new high, it was not surprising that the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity Plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and the shrinkage of the balance sheet in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and the neutral interest rate segment. As you can see from the chart below, there has been a marked distortion and flattening of the bond market in the past 48 hours, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started a rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of interest rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two time points began to decline, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with the apparent decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed took a hawkish turn even before the breakeven inflation rate reached 2014 normal range levels. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to move early, then market voices say that the Fed can't go far until inflation and growth reach the speed limit, which also leads to lower market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with the huge demand for yields from global investors driving the US dollar stronger and having a de-inflation (disinflation) impact that comes faster than expected. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed US neutral rates even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strength of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on medium-term discount rates. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from Russell 2000 to Nasdaq, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually version 2.0 of the long-term stagnation of ten-year pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance does not constitute a trend, the strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been highlighting over the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from the V-shaped recovery to post-Covid stability, including the structural damage left by Covid on private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus-can the United States sustain positive GDP growth without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus every year? And what happens to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflationary fire extinguishes? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Fed at present is whether it is possible to repeat the mistake of 1937, when the Fed thought that the U.S. economy had improved and started a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy was back in trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reinflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, now that America's debt and deficit have risen to World War II levels, how can the U.S. government justify trillions of dollars a year in fiscal stimulus without war? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy is in recession again, how will the then-Fed chairman fight inflation?</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the resolution, the market actually went like this! Did the Fed think of it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-20 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market performance after the Fed's decision is extraordinary from any angle: the US Dollar Index has recorded the biggest one-day increase since the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in March last year, the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has fallen to the lowest since February, and some commodity prices have fallen to new lows since March last year, but the Nasdaq has hit a record high.</p><p>Why is the market doing so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos said in the report that the flattening of the yield curve shows that the Fed has made a major policy mistake. And this comes down to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same thesis we predicted six years ago that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why does the market have such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts gave analysis one by one:</p><p>US dollar surge: The performance of the US dollar surge is completely in line with the traditional view that the front-end real interest rate has the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index. Expectations of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, underpinning the recent strong performance of the dollar. Even if the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond did not hit a new high, it was not surprising that the US Dollar Index rebounded strongly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity Plunge: The Fed's role in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, perhaps as we can see from the current very high correlation between the dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also showed that there was a strong correlation between the Fed's balance sheet, commodity prices and inflation expectations, and the shrinkage of the balance sheet in 2013 also marked the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A number of survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. The above arguments all show that the Fed's ability to influence inflation expectations through the US dollar and commodities far exceeds ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bonds and the neutral interest rate segment. As you can see from the chart below, there has been a marked distortion and flattening of the bond market in the past 48 hours, which is unusual when the Federal Reserve has not even started a rate hike.</p><p>Repeating the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019, although the market's pricing of interest rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 has risen, the yield after these two time points began to decline, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with the apparent decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Fed took a hawkish turn even before the breakeven inflation rate reached 2014 normal range levels. And now the market has taken an extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Fed decides to move early, then market voices say that the Fed can't go far until inflation and growth reach the speed limit, which also leads to lower market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets outside the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with the huge demand for yields from global investors driving the US dollar stronger and having a de-inflation (disinflation) impact that comes faster than expected. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed US neutral rates even lower.</p><p>The low neutral interest rate is consistent with the strength of the stock market, especially growth stocks that rely heavily on medium-term discount rates. The trend of U.S. stocks in the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from Russell 2000 to Nasdaq, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually version 2.0 of the long-term stagnation of ten-year pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While a day or two of price performance does not constitute a trend, the strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been highlighting over the past few weeks that there are still many issues to be resolved from the V-shaped recovery to post-Covid stability, including the structural damage left by Covid on private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the tragic situation of the economy without fiscal stimulus-can the United States sustain positive GDP growth without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus every year? And what happens to inflation if the Fed is forced to cut interest rates before the inflationary fire extinguishes? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Fed at present is whether it is possible to repeat the mistake of 1937, when the Fed thought that the U.S. economy had improved and started a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy was back in trouble, and ultimately it was massive fiscal reinflation during World War II that saved everything.</p><p>But the question is, now that America's debt and deficit have risen to World War II levels, how can the U.S. government justify trillions of dollars a year in fiscal stimulus without war? When prices continue to rise in 2024 and the economy is in recession again, how will the then-Fed chairman fight inflation?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85333027402a432a97137c9e6d12fcdc","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2144709321","content_text":"美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。\n市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的极度悲观看法，“换句话说，这与我们六年前预测的，美联储加息周期将以灾难结束时的论点相同。”为何市场会有如此意外走势?德银分析师一一给出分析：\n美元大涨：美元大涨的表现完全符合传统观点，即对美元指数影响最大的是前端实际利率。美联储2023年收紧货币政策的预期已经被重新定价，支撑近期美元强势的表现。即便10年期美债收益率没有创下新高，美元指数强势反弹也并不让人惊讶。商品暴跌：不应低估美联储在推升商品价格方面起到的作用，或许我们从目前美元与基金属价格之前非常高的相关性中可以看出。德银此前的报告也表明，美联储资产负债表、商品价格和通胀预期之间存在强关联性，2013年缩表也标志着当时的通胀预期顶。而多项基于调查的指标，比如密歇根大学通胀预期指数也表明商品价格与通胀预期的高关联性。上述的论据都表明，美联储通过美元和商品影响通胀预期的能力远超一般人想象。\n最后，也是最重要的，债券和中性利率的部分。从下图可以看出，在过去48小时内，债券市场出现明显的扭曲平坦化，在美联储甚至还没开始加息的时候出现这种情况非比寻常。\n重演2015年至2019年美联储加息周期，尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息定价已经上升，但这两个时间点之后的收益率开始下降，主要因市场认为美联储最多能做到的也只有在不到两年时间内加息。这也与通胀预期的明显下降相吻合。事实上，美联储甚至在盈亏平衡通胀率达到2014年正常区间水平前就出现了鹰派的转变。而现在市场对中性利率r*采取了极其悲观的看法。换句话说，如果美联储决定提前行动，那么市场的声音表示，在通胀和增长达到速度极限前，美联储无法走得很远，这也导致市场对美联储第一次加息后的利率预期下降。\n债券市场之外的其他市场也反映出对中性利率r*的悲观，全球投资者对收益率的巨大需求推动美元走强，并产生比预期来得更快的去通胀(通胀放缓，disinflation)影响。换句话说，全球中性利率的低迷将美国中性利率推得更低了。\n而低中性利率与股市走强是相一致的，特别是严重依赖中期贴现利率的成长股。过去两天美股走势反映的是从罗素2000到纳斯达克指数的巨大相对轮动，但德银分析师警告，这其实是2010年到2019年长期停滞十年定价的2.0版本。虽然一两天的价格表现并不能构成趋势，但市场发出的奇怪信号不应被忽略。德银分析师在过去几周一直强调，从V型复苏到后新冠时代的稳定状态，还有许多问题有待解决，包括新冠疫情对私营部门储蓄率，以及新均衡实际利率水平留下的结构性损伤。可以想象，没有财政刺激措施之后经济的悲惨情形——没有每年数万亿美元的新财政刺激措施，美国是否能维持正的GDP增长率?而如果美联储被迫在通胀之火熄灭前就降息，通胀率会怎样?这些都是市场在未来几个月内不得不考虑的问题。\n美联储当前面临的最大问题在于是否可能重蹈1937年覆辙，当时美联储认为美国经济已经好转，并开始启动加息，但结果是美国经济重新陷入困境，最终是二战时期的大规模财政再通胀挽救了一切。\n但问题在于，目前美国的债务和赤字都已经升至二战时的水平，没有战争，美国政府还能如何证明每年几万亿美元的财政刺激措施合理?当2024年物价继续上涨，经济再度陷入衰退，时任的美联储主席要如何抗击通胀?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}