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AndrewLam

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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-07-18
  ??????
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-07-08
  666
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-07-04
  ???
  OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?
  由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减
  OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-30
  ??
  Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 21% on its first day.
  北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。上市前夕发行规模缩减7成叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示
  Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 21% on its first day.
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-30
  ???
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-24
  ??
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-22
  666
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-22
  tesla
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-22
  ?
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- AndrewLamAndrewLam
  ·2021-06-20
  ??
  This is how the market moved after the decision! Has the Federal Reserve thought of this?
  德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。
  This is how the market moved after the decision! Has the Federal Reserve thought of this?
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What does this mean for oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153968032,"gmtCreate":1625005643926,"gmtModify":1703849770986,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087240650258830","idStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153968032","repostId":"1106873810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106873810","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624989419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106873810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 01:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 21% on its first day.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106873810","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示","content":"<p>On June 30, Beijing time, Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising 21% on its first day. The previously announced IPO price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The issuance size was reduced by 70% before the IPO.</b></p><p>On the eve of its IPO, Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai has lowered its IPO financing target in the United States to about a quarter of its original target, seeking to raise a maximum of $94.4 million, a 74% decrease from the original plan of $357 million. The number of depositary shares (ADSs) issued has also been cut from 14 million to 3.7 million, with a price range of $23.50 to $25.50.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Maicai</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery shopping app, where consumers can purchase on-demand fresh food through a \"pre-positioned warehouse\" network. The so-called pre-positioned warehouses are warehouses located near residential areas according to a predetermined strategy to ensure that Dingdong Maicai can deliver goods to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services now cover a range of major cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou.</p><p>Dingdong Maicai was founded in 2017. Its founder and CEO, Liang Changlin, had several successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital firms, including Sequoia China and Qiming Ventures. In addition, companies such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital, and Dachen Capital are also among the company's shareholders. With substantial capital support, Dingdong Maicai tripled its number of pre-positioned warehouses to 345 in just seven months.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Dingdong Maicai processed approximately 300,000 orders daily in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year reached approximately US$1.7 billion. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with approximately 1,000 pre-positioned warehouses and a monthly user base of approximately 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, Dingdong Maicai's main competitors include Alibaba's Hema, Meituan Maicai, Missfresh, and JD.com.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai's recent financial performance can be roughly summarized as follows: revenue is growing rapidly, but it seems to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to widen, and the net loss rate fluctuated. The cash burn is considerable, but free cash flow remains negative.</p><p>Specifically, Dingdong Maicai's revenue reached RMB 11.336 billion in 2020, a surge of 192.16% compared to RMB 3.88 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was RMB 3.802 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai suffered an operating loss of RMB 3.162 billion, an increase of 78.42% compared to RMB 1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company suffered an operating loss of RMB 1.334 billion, an increase of 352.20% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai suffered a net loss of RMB 3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% compared to RMB 1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company suffered a net loss of RMB 1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss ratio was 28.0%, a significant decrease from 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss ratio surged from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and held cash and equivalents of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the company's free cash flow was -$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis and Commentary</b></p><p>According to its established strategy, Dingdong Maicai's profits mainly come from the sale of fresh food and other goods through the app. However, they are far from achieving profitability and do not have a clear roadmap. As a result, the pre-warehouse model adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors has been questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>To date, Dingdong Maicai has failed to achieve profitability, and judging from its financial data, its losses are even widening, with no clear profit prospects in sight.</p><p>While the market in which Dingdong Maicai operates theoretically has a bright future, the fierce competition and low profit margins are well-known. For example, according to reports, Dingdong Maicai's order execution costs, including delivery fees, packaging fees, and logistics costs, were twice the net revenue of the orders themselves in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how much the company's order volume increases, it will not be enough for Dingdong Maicai to turn a profit in the short term, because the fact is that the more orders there are, the greater the loss. In fact, the pre-positioned warehouse model itself is a \"money-swallowing beast,\" and controlling the speed at which this model burns cash is already a serious challenge facing the company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 21% on its first day.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 21% on its first day.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 01:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 30, Beijing time, Dingdong Maicai officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, rising 21% on its first day. The previously announced IPO price was $23.50 per ADS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8019015b6d73a8f99bab4121482e7be7\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The issuance size was reduced by 70% before the IPO.</b></p><p>On the eve of its IPO, Dingdong Maicai urgently updated its IPO prospectus. According to the latest prospectus, Dingdong Maicai has lowered its IPO financing target in the United States to about a quarter of its original target, seeking to raise a maximum of $94.4 million, a 74% decrease from the original plan of $357 million. The number of depositary shares (ADSs) issued has also been cut from 14 million to 3.7 million, with a price range of $23.50 to $25.50.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p><p><b>About Dingdong Maicai</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai is headquartered in Shanghai and operates its own grocery shopping app, where consumers can purchase on-demand fresh food through a \"pre-positioned warehouse\" network. The so-called pre-positioned warehouses are warehouses located near residential areas according to a predetermined strategy to ensure that Dingdong Maicai can deliver goods to your door within 30 minutes as promised. Their services now cover a range of major cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou.</p><p>Dingdong Maicai was founded in 2017. Its founder and CEO, Liang Changlin, had several successful entrepreneurial experiences before, so it quickly attracted the support of a series of venture capital firms, including Sequoia China and Qiming Ventures. In addition, companies such as Tiger Global, Gaorong Capital, and Dachen Capital are also among the company's shareholders. With substantial capital support, Dingdong Maicai tripled its number of pre-positioned warehouses to 345 in just seven months.</p><p>According to reports, in February 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Dingdong Maicai processed approximately 300,000 orders daily in Shanghai, and the company's total revenue that year reached approximately US$1.7 billion. As of January 2021, Dingdong Maicai's business covered nearly 30 cities across the country, with approximately 1,000 pre-positioned warehouses and a monthly user base of approximately 6.9 million.</p><p>In this field, Dingdong Maicai's main competitors include Alibaba's Hema, Meituan Maicai, Missfresh, and JD.com.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai's recent financial performance can be roughly summarized as follows: revenue is growing rapidly, but it seems to have peaked; Operating losses and net losses continued to widen, and the net loss rate fluctuated. The cash burn is considerable, but free cash flow remains negative.</p><p>Specifically, Dingdong Maicai's revenue reached RMB 11.336 billion in 2020, a surge of 192.16% compared to RMB 3.88 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue was RMB 3.802 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai suffered an operating loss of RMB 3.162 billion, an increase of 78.42% compared to RMB 1.741 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company suffered an operating loss of RMB 1.334 billion, an increase of 352.20% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai suffered a net loss of RMB 3.175 billion, an increase of 69.51% compared to RMB 1.873 billion in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the company suffered a net loss of RMB 1.385 billion, an increase of 465.31% year-on-year.</p><p>In 2020, Dingdong Maicai's net loss ratio was 28.0%, a significant decrease from 48.3% in 2019. However, in the first quarter of 2021, the net loss ratio surged from 9.4% in the same period of the previous year to 36.4%.</p><p>As of March 31, 2021, Dingdong Maicai had total liabilities of US$898 million and held cash and equivalents of US$973 million. For the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, the company's free cash flow was -$155 million.</p><p><b>Analysis and Commentary</b></p><p>According to its established strategy, Dingdong Maicai's profits mainly come from the sale of fresh food and other goods through the app. However, they are far from achieving profitability and do not have a clear roadmap. As a result, the pre-warehouse model adopted by Dingdong Maicai and other competitors has been questioned by market observers from time to time.</p><p>To date, Dingdong Maicai has failed to achieve profitability, and judging from its financial data, its losses are even widening, with no clear profit prospects in sight.</p><p>While the market in which Dingdong Maicai operates theoretically has a bright future, the fierce competition and low profit margins are well-known. For example, according to reports, Dingdong Maicai's order execution costs, including delivery fees, packaging fees, and logistics costs, were twice the net revenue of the orders themselves in 2020.</p><p>This means that no matter how much the company's order volume increases, it will not be enough for Dingdong Maicai to turn a profit in the short term, because the fact is that the more orders there are, the greater the loss. In fact, the pre-positioned warehouse model itself is a \"money-swallowing beast,\" and controlling the speed at which this model burns cash is already a serious challenge facing the company.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bdbf77f2a44d0a051afa32e60a46fbf","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106873810","content_text":"北京时间6月30日，叮咚买菜正式登陆纽交所，首日开涨21%，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 23.50美元。\n\n上市前夕发行规模缩减7成\n叮咚买菜在上市前夜紧急更新了IPO招股书，据最新招股书显示，叮咚买菜将在美国上市融资的目标降低到了原来的四分之一左右，即寻求至多融资9440万美元，比原计划融资的3.57亿美元下降了74%，存托股票(ADS) 发行数量也从1400万股砍到了370万股，价格区间为23.50美元至25.50美元。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。\n关于叮咚买菜\n叮咚买菜总部位于上海，运营着自己的买菜app，消费者可以通过“前置仓”网络购买按需生鲜食品。所谓前置仓，是按照既定策略配置在接近居民区的仓库，确保叮咚买菜能够按照承诺，在三十分钟内送货上门。他们的服务目前已经覆盖了上海、北京、深圳和杭州等一系列主要城市。\n叮咚买菜诞生于2017年，创始人兼首席执行官梁昌霖之前就有多次成功创业的经历，因此很快就吸引了一系列风投资本的支持，包括红杉中国、启明创投等，此外诸如老虎环球、高榕资本、达晨财智等也都在公司股东之列。在雄厚的资本支持下，叮咚买菜只用了七个月时间，就让其前置仓数量增长了三倍，达到了345处。\n据报道，2020年2月，在新冠病毒疫情大爆发的背景下，叮咚买菜在上海每天都要执行大约30万笔订单，公司当年的总营收也达到了大约17亿美元。截至2021年1月，叮咚买菜的业务已经覆盖全国近三十个城市，拥有大约一千家前置仓，每月用户群达到大约690万。\n在这个领域当中，叮咚买菜主要的竞争对手包括阿里巴巴旗下盒马、美团买菜、每日优鲜和京东到家等。\n财务表现\n叮咚买菜近期的财务表现可以大致概括如下：营收高速增长，但疑似已经见顶；运营亏损和净亏损持续扩大，净亏损率起伏不定；烧钱可观，自由现金流依然为负数。\n具体而言，2020年当中，叮咚买菜营收达到113.36亿元人民币，较之2019年的38.80亿元猛增192.16%，2021年第一季度，公司营收38.02亿元，同比增长46.01%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜运营亏损31.62亿元人民币，较之2019年的17.41亿元扩大78.42%，2021年第一季度，公司运营亏损13.34亿元，同比扩大352.20%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损31.75亿元人民币，较之2019年的18.73亿元扩大69.51%，2021年第一季度，公司净亏损13.85亿元，同比扩大465.31%。\n2020年当中，叮咚买菜净亏损率28.0%，较之2019年的48.3%大幅降低，但是2021年第一季度，净亏损率又从前一年同期的9.4%猛增到了36.4%。\n截至2021年3月31日，叮咚买菜总负债8.98亿美元，持有现金及等价物9.73亿美元。截至2021年3月31日的十二个月当中，公司自由现金流-1.55亿美元。\n分析评论\n按照既定策略，叮咚买菜的利润主要是来自于通过app完成的生鲜食品和其他各种商品的销售，只是目前，他们还远没有到实现盈利的地步，也看不到清晰的路线图，以至于叮咚买菜和其他竞争对手所采用的前置仓模式本身，都不时受到市场观察家们的质疑。\n迄今为止，叮咚买菜都未能实现盈利，而且从财务数据看，他们的亏损甚至还有扩大的势头，根本看不到明确的盈利前景。\n叮咚买菜所在的市场虽然理论上说来前途远大，但是这里的竞争之激烈和利润率之低也是人尽皆知。比如据报道，叮咚买菜的订单执行成本包括配送费、包装费、物流成本等在内，在2020年内要两倍于订单本身的净营收。\n这也就意味着，不管公司的订单数量如何增长，都不足以让叮咚买菜在短期之内扭亏为盈，因为事实就是，订单越多，亏损越大。事实上，前置仓模式本身就是一头“吞金兽”，要控制这种模式的烧钱速度，已经是摆在公司面前的严峻挑战。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153969666,"gmtCreate":1625005479955,"gmtModify":1703849767997,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087240650258830","idStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f672dbbbc9a06729483a7d62a9aec87d","width":"1125","height":"2685"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153969666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121473371,"gmtCreate":1624491036493,"gmtModify":1703838046024,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087240650258830","idStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121473371","repostId":"1161959795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120256776,"gmtCreate":1624325645495,"gmtModify":1703833505904,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087240650258830","idStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120256776","repostId":"1128496063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120259278,"gmtCreate":1624325532394,"gmtModify":1703833499874,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087240650258830","idStr":"4087240650258830"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tesla","listText":"tesla","text":"tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120259278","repostId":"2145771034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120227303,"gmtCreate":1624325483702,"gmtModify":1703833495990,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false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13:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This is how the market moved after the decision! Has the Federal Reserve thought of this?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144709321","media":"智通财经网","summary":"德银首席外汇策略师George Saravelos认为，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误，市场表明了对中性利率r*的极度悲观态度。","content":"<p>The market performance following the Federal Reserve's decision was extraordinary from any perspective: the US Dollar Index saw its biggest single-day gain since the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe in March last year, long-term US Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since February, and some commodity prices fell to their lowest level since March last year, but the Nasdaq index hit a record high.</p><p>Why did the market perform so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>In his report, chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos stated that the flattening of the yield curve indicates that the Federal Reserve made a major policy mistake. This is attributed to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same argument we made six years ago when we predicted that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why did the market show such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts provided their analysis one by one:</p><p>The surge in the US dollar is entirely consistent with the traditional view that the biggest impact on the US Dollar Index is the real interest rate at the front end. Expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, supporting the recent strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year US Treasury yield did not hit a new high, the strong rebound in the US Dollar Index would not be surprising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity plunge: The role of the Federal Reserve in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, as can be seen from the current very high correlation between the US dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also indicated a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, commodity prices, and inflation expectations, with the 2013 shrinking balance sheet marking the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Several survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. All of the above arguments demonstrate that the Federal Reserve's ability to influence inflation expectations through the dollar and commodities far exceeds what most people imagine.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bond and neutral interest rate sections. As can be seen from the chart below, the bond market has shown a significant distortion and flattening in the past 48 hours, which is unusual for this to occur before the Federal Reserve has even begun its rate hike.</p><p>This is a repeat of the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019. Although the market has increased its pricing of rate hike in 2023 and 2024, yields have begun to decline after these two points, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with a significant decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Federal Reserve turned hawkish even before break-even inflation reached the normal range level in 2014. The market is now extremely pessimistic about the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Federal Reserve decides to act ahead of schedule, then market sentiment indicates that the Fed cannot go far before inflation and growth reach their limits, which has led to a decline in market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets besides the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with strong global investor demand for yields driving a stronger dollar and producing a faster-than-expected disinflationary effect. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed the US neutral interest rate even lower.</p><p>Low neutral interest rates are consistent with a stronger stock market, especially growth stocks that heavily rely on the medium-term discount rate. The performance of US stocks over the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from the Russell 2000 to the Nasdaq index, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually a 2.0 version of the ten-year stagnation in pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While price performance over a day or two does not constitute a trend, strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been emphasizing in recent weeks that many issues remain to be addressed, from a V-shaped recovery to a stable state in the post-COVID era, including the structural damage left by the COVID-19 pandemic to private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the dire state of the economy without fiscal stimulus measures—without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus each year, could the United States maintain a positive GDP growth rate? What would happen to the inflation rate if the Federal Reserve were forced to cut interest rates before the flames of inflation died down? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Federal Reserve now is whether it could repeat the mistakes of 1937, when the Fed believed the U.S. economy had improved and began to initiate a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy fell into trouble again, and ultimately the massive fiscal reinflation of World War II saved everything.</p><p>The problem is that the US debt and deficit have now risen to World War II levels. Without war, how can the US government justify its trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus measures every year? With prices continuing to rise and the economy falling into recession again in 2024, how will the then-Federal Reserve Chairman combat inflation?</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This is how the market moved after the decision! 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Has the Federal Reserve thought of this?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-20 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market performance following the Federal Reserve's decision was extraordinary from any perspective: the US Dollar Index saw its biggest single-day gain since the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe in March last year, long-term US Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since February, and some commodity prices fell to their lowest level since March last year, but the Nasdaq index hit a record high.</p><p>Why did the market perform so unexpectedly?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>In his report, chief foreign exchange strategist George Saravelos stated that the flattening of the yield curve indicates that the Federal Reserve made a major policy mistake. This is attributed to the market's extremely pessimistic view of the neutral interest rate r*, \"in other words, this is the same argument we made six years ago when we predicted that the Fed's rate hike cycle would end in disaster.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531c16b22c4764b6f441ed19bd04fd96\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why did the market show such an unexpected trend? Deutsche Bank analysts provided their analysis one by one:</p><p>The surge in the US dollar is entirely consistent with the traditional view that the biggest impact on the US Dollar Index is the real interest rate at the front end. Expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy in 2023 have been repriced, supporting the recent strength of the dollar. Even if the 10-year US Treasury yield did not hit a new high, the strong rebound in the US Dollar Index would not be surprising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55140d5c720ec904810eff37a21a9a99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commodity plunge: The role of the Federal Reserve in pushing up commodity prices should not be underestimated, as can be seen from the current very high correlation between the US dollar and base metal prices. Deutsche Bank's previous report also indicated a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, commodity prices, and inflation expectations, with the 2013 shrinking balance sheet marking the peak of inflation expectations at that time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ddc2ef3dd4221af38423d4be2d5b54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Several survey-based indicators, such as the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index, also indicate a high correlation between commodity prices and inflation expectations. All of the above arguments demonstrate that the Federal Reserve's ability to influence inflation expectations through the dollar and commodities far exceeds what most people imagine.</p><p>Finally, and most importantly, the bond and neutral interest rate sections. As can be seen from the chart below, the bond market has shown a significant distortion and flattening in the past 48 hours, which is unusual for this to occur before the Federal Reserve has even begun its rate hike.</p><p>This is a repeat of the Fed's rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019. Although the market has increased its pricing of rate hike in 2023 and 2024, yields have begun to decline after these two points, mainly because the market believes that the most the Fed can do is rate hike in less than two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9859d8bd5aaac81db8c1c1d9764e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This also coincides with a significant decline in inflation expectations. In fact, the Federal Reserve turned hawkish even before break-even inflation reached the normal range level in 2014. The market is now extremely pessimistic about the neutral interest rate r*.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9676f27f16093d1d7ed45606d48f0913\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, if the Federal Reserve decides to act ahead of schedule, then market sentiment indicates that the Fed cannot go far before inflation and growth reach their limits, which has led to a decline in market expectations for interest rates after the Fed's first rate hike.</p><p>Other markets besides the bond market also reflect pessimism about the neutral interest rate r*, with strong global investor demand for yields driving a stronger dollar and producing a faster-than-expected disinflationary effect. In other words, the global downturn in neutral interest rates has pushed the US neutral interest rate even lower.</p><p>Low neutral interest rates are consistent with a stronger stock market, especially growth stocks that heavily rely on the medium-term discount rate. The performance of US stocks over the past two days reflects the huge relative rotation from the Russell 2000 to the Nasdaq index, but Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is actually a 2.0 version of the ten-year stagnation in pricing from 2010 to 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d22b5805d705bf59b246a7ea496732\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While price performance over a day or two does not constitute a trend, strange signals from the market should not be ignored. Deutsche Bank analysts have been emphasizing in recent weeks that many issues remain to be addressed, from a V-shaped recovery to a stable state in the post-COVID era, including the structural damage left by the COVID-19 pandemic to private sector savings rates and the new equilibrium real interest rate level. One can imagine the dire state of the economy without fiscal stimulus measures—without trillions of dollars in new fiscal stimulus each year, could the United States maintain a positive GDP growth rate? What would happen to the inflation rate if the Federal Reserve were forced to cut interest rates before the flames of inflation died down? These are all issues that the market will have to consider in the coming months.</p><p>The biggest question facing the Federal Reserve now is whether it could repeat the mistakes of 1937, when the Fed believed the U.S. economy had improved and began to initiate a rate hike, but the result was that the U.S. economy fell into trouble again, and ultimately the massive fiscal reinflation of World War II saved everything.</p><p>The problem is that the US debt and deficit have now risen to World War II levels. Without war, how can the US government justify its trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus measures every year? With prices continuing to rise and the economy falling into recession again in 2024, how will the then-Federal Reserve Chairman combat inflation?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85333027402a432a97137c9e6d12fcdc","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2144709321","content_text":"美联储决议后的市场表现，无论从什么角度来看都非比寻常：美元指数自去年3月新冠疫情席卷全球以来创下单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低，部分商品价格跌至去年3月以来新低，但纳斯达克指数却创下历史新高。\n市场为何出现如此出乎意料的表现?德意志银行首席外汇策略师George Saravelos在报告中表示，从收益率曲线平坦化可以看出，美联储犯了一个重大的政策错误。而这归结为市场对中性利率r*的极度悲观看法，“换句话说，这与我们六年前预测的，美联储加息周期将以灾难结束时的论点相同。”为何市场会有如此意外走势?德银分析师一一给出分析：\n美元大涨：美元大涨的表现完全符合传统观点，即对美元指数影响最大的是前端实际利率。美联储2023年收紧货币政策的预期已经被重新定价，支撑近期美元强势的表现。即便10年期美债收益率没有创下新高，美元指数强势反弹也并不让人惊讶。商品暴跌：不应低估美联储在推升商品价格方面起到的作用，或许我们从目前美元与基金属价格之前非常高的相关性中可以看出。德银此前的报告也表明，美联储资产负债表、商品价格和通胀预期之间存在强关联性，2013年缩表也标志着当时的通胀预期顶。而多项基于调查的指标，比如密歇根大学通胀预期指数也表明商品价格与通胀预期的高关联性。上述的论据都表明，美联储通过美元和商品影响通胀预期的能力远超一般人想象。\n最后，也是最重要的，债券和中性利率的部分。从下图可以看出，在过去48小时内，债券市场出现明显的扭曲平坦化，在美联储甚至还没开始加息的时候出现这种情况非比寻常。\n重演2015年至2019年美联储加息周期，尽管市场对2023年和2024年加息定价已经上升，但这两个时间点之后的收益率开始下降，主要因市场认为美联储最多能做到的也只有在不到两年时间内加息。这也与通胀预期的明显下降相吻合。事实上，美联储甚至在盈亏平衡通胀率达到2014年正常区间水平前就出现了鹰派的转变。而现在市场对中性利率r*采取了极其悲观的看法。换句话说，如果美联储决定提前行动，那么市场的声音表示，在通胀和增长达到速度极限前，美联储无法走得很远，这也导致市场对美联储第一次加息后的利率预期下降。\n债券市场之外的其他市场也反映出对中性利率r*的悲观，全球投资者对收益率的巨大需求推动美元走强，并产生比预期来得更快的去通胀(通胀放缓，disinflation)影响。换句话说，全球中性利率的低迷将美国中性利率推得更低了。\n而低中性利率与股市走强是相一致的，特别是严重依赖中期贴现利率的成长股。过去两天美股走势反映的是从罗素2000到纳斯达克指数的巨大相对轮动，但德银分析师警告，这其实是2010年到2019年长期停滞十年定价的2.0版本。虽然一两天的价格表现并不能构成趋势，但市场发出的奇怪信号不应被忽略。德银分析师在过去几周一直强调，从V型复苏到后新冠时代的稳定状态，还有许多问题有待解决，包括新冠疫情对私营部门储蓄率，以及新均衡实际利率水平留下的结构性损伤。可以想象，没有财政刺激措施之后经济的悲惨情形——没有每年数万亿美元的新财政刺激措施，美国是否能维持正的GDP增长率?而如果美联储被迫在通胀之火熄灭前就降息，通胀率会怎样?这些都是市场在未来几个月内不得不考虑的问题。\n美联储当前面临的最大问题在于是否可能重蹈1937年覆辙，当时美联储认为美国经济已经好转，并开始启动加息，但结果是美国经济重新陷入困境，最终是二战时期的大规模财政再通胀挽救了一切。\n但问题在于，目前美国的债务和赤字都已经升至二战时的水平，没有战争，美国政府还能如何证明每年几万亿美元的财政刺激措施合理?当2024年物价继续上涨，经济再度陷入衰退，时任的美联储主席要如何抗击通胀?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}