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bkloh1981

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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-08-01
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  What are we buying when we buy funds?
  有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲
  What are we buying when we buy funds?
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-25
  o
  What are we buying when we buy funds?
  有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲
  What are we buying when we buy funds?
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-19
  ok
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-12
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-12
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-09
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-08
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-06
  ok
  US stocks are afraid to fall gold will rise? The 'pain index' already says it all
  “经济痛苦指数”最早由美国经济学家欧肯提出,该指数通过将失业率和通货膨胀水平相加,以评估民众的实际经济压力，也是衡量经济滞胀程度的一个指标，并且该指数历来与美国股市、黄金价格呈高度相关性。目前，伴随
  US stocks are afraid to fall gold will rise? The 'pain index' already says it all
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-06
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- bkloh1981bkloh1981
  ·2021-07-06
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Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their power, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks may account for a small proportion of a single fund, but the risk of combining it in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the middle and small markets, and the risks are more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are profitable for a long time, and they are also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are we buying when we buy funds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are we buying when we buy funds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is \"lithium\" all over the world, but it is difficult to move without \"lithium\". Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their power, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks may account for a small proportion of a single fund, but the risk of combining it in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the middle and small markets, and the risks are more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are profitable for a long time, and they are also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161895834","content_text":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲动，于是去寻找一只新能源主题基金，准备买入。\n“部分投资者买基金是先自己看好一些板块，比如消费军工之类的，然后再在市场中去找与自己想法持仓最像的基金经理，然后去买它，这有点本末倒置了”国盛金工的叶尔乐说，“对同一个股或行业的配置，每个基金经理的逻辑可能完全不一样，最终能赚到的钱也完全不一样”。\n叶尔乐认为，我们常常会问基金经理“买了什么”而不知道“为什么买”，而后一个问题可能更为重要。最近，他的一篇研究报告《公募基金究竟赚的什么钱—基金ALPHA进化史系列报告》引起了业内广泛关注，受到多家机构的一致好评。他在报告中详细分析了基金的收益来源，并介绍了不同于传统的划分基金经理能力的方法。\n\n国盛金工分析师 叶尔乐\n上个月，我们远川研究所对话了国盛金工分析师叶尔乐，对公募基金究竟赚的是什么钱进行了一系列的探讨，希望通过这次交谈，能够就“买基金”这件事给投资者们带来新的启发。\n以下，是叶尔乐对买基金买的是什么、基金经理具备哪些能力、怎么去构建基金组合等问题的一些看法。\n\n很多人买基金时，会问到“这个基金涨这么多还能买吗？”叶尔乐给出了回答：买基金和买股票不一样，股票不宜追高，但基金在某种情况下是可以“追高”的。总体来说，叶尔乐列举了基金与股票的三个区别，分别体现在定价、估值、风险分散方式上。\n股票的定价是由众人根据市场公开数据进行预期交换、预期博弈得到的结果，而基金的定价是由基金经理一个人决定的。股票要涨，是越来越多的人被某一叙事或逻辑说服而买入，基金要涨，是需要基金经理有提前感知到这样逻辑的能力，提前众人买入股票，并在众人买进来时卖掉。\n股票有明确的估值，基金没有净值意义上的估值问题。股票涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨，而基金并非涨得好的未来表现一定差，也不是以前表现差的未来一定就表现好。买基金有个外推性很强的指标，叫ALPHA中长期动量，意思是过去好的未来好，其本质就是基金经理的能力。只有基金经理某一块能力是稳定的，才能在某一细分收益上有长期动量，而某一细分收益上的长期动量也反证了基金在这类能力上是稳定的。\n股票具有公司层面的特质风险，能通过分散持有来控制，基金是股票的组合，这方面风险已经较小，其风险的控制不能仅靠简单的分散。比如买一堆偏抱团股的基金，虽然可能单个基金占比很小，但组合在“抱团因子”上的风险则非常高，一旦抱团瓦解，整个基金组合都有很大回撤风险，那这样可能还不如大盘中盘小盘各挑一个基金，风险更分散。所以，基金的风险需要穿透到底层风格来分散。\n那么基金的本质是什么呢？\n叶尔乐认为，基金不变的本质是基金经理包括性格、投资体系、信息来源以及投资模式等所谓的能力圈。经过多年进化，基金经理已经很难用“大小盘”、“价值成长”、“行业主题”等简单投资风格去划分，这样的划分稳定性较弱，需要进一步对基金收益进行归因，从而归纳出基金经理的选股逻辑，划分出基金经理的真正能力。\n\n公募基金究竟赚哪些钱？\n叶尔乐在报告中对公募基金的收益进行归因后得出，基金收益中有基金经理不能稳定赚到的钱、不可避免要亏掉的钱、以及能够稳定赚到的钱。\n首先，基金在市值和估值方面赚的钱是不稳定的。市值上只赚过两波钱，一波是14~16年小市值的钱，一波是去年底到今年初的大市值的钱，市值的钱很难把握。在估值上，公募基金偏好高估值股票，这在19年之前带来的是负收益，之后是正收益，估值层面赚的钱也不是稳定的。\n再者，公募基金偏好高波动性和高流动性股票，这使得基金长期亏钱。高波动性是指股票在过去大涨大跌，这会引起交易上的损失。而公募基金受制于大体量和公开募集的属性，必须买高流动性票，高流动性对应高定价效率，快逻辑的钱在这些股票上持续时间近年在越来越短，公募难以做高频交易，很难赚到这种快逻辑的钱，基本将其让渡给私募高频交易者。\n因此，无论是市值、估值的钱，或是高波动性、高流动性的钱，都不是大部分基金经理能够稳定把握的。叶尔乐认为，买基金时更应该关注的是基金经理稳定赚钱的能力。\n那么公募在不能赚快钱的情况下，只能赚慢钱。慢逻辑的钱体现在两种风格收益上：动量和成长。所谓动量，是指一个逻辑只有是慢慢发酵的，最终才可能使股价在过去12个月稳定上涨，这种稳稳上涨的特征叶尔乐称之为动量。而成长就是公司具有成长性，成长性的验证需要时间从而也靠慢逻辑。\n关于赚成长逻辑的钱，叶尔乐总结了三个优点：（1）成长的逻辑需要时间验证，无法在短期反应充分，留给基金经理足够的时间；（2）成长的逻辑短期会有兑现，即可根据季报阶段性验证，每次验证能兑现部分超额收益，使股票连续上涨；（3）成长的逻辑相比价值逻辑是强可验证的，因为估值的回归依赖很多外部的宏观或市场因素，而成长逻辑比如对公司5年增速的判断，那么在未来5年一定存在一个事实验证5年前的话对与否。\n叶尔乐认为，公募基金最主要是预测公司业绩，赚成长逻辑的钱。因为目前公募多以短期业绩考核为主，成长比价值更具有性价比：价值回归可能要等1到3年才赚到超额收益，时间高度不确定，而成长股每个季度都能有逻辑兑现。\n从策略视角，叶尔乐介绍了除业绩增长外，基金在公司层面长期赚钱的另一个因子—分析师热度。分析师热度是指基金经理通常会密切关注分析师的推荐，从而转化为自己的投资逻辑。相比于公众的信息来源优势也是公募基金长期赚钱的原因，基金经理拥有更快接收信息的渠道。\n总的来说，公募基金在动量、成长、分析师热度这些因子上是长期赚钱的，也是基金经理的能力所在，而市值和估值这种风格类收益，以及高波动性高流动性这种交易类收益则是基金经理无法把握的。\n\n在了解了基金收益来源之后，具体到基金经理能力标签的划分、基金组合的构建时又该如何操作呢？\n叶尔乐通过举例来告诉我们如何去分析一只基金。他以今年表现较好的一只基金为例，对这只基金的收益做了量化归因，从而归纳出了基金经理所具备的能力标签。\n首先叶尔乐将基金收益完全分解成四大收益来源，该基金在“策略收益”收益上表现一般，“动态收益”上贡献较大，这意味着基金经理总体选股能力一般，但做波段能力较强。该基金还在“行业收益”上贡献较大，意味着它行业选得好。据此，可以给基金经理贴上标签：动态收益能力、行业配置能力。\n\n接着分析基金的“风格收益”，该基金自2020年换基金经理后，风格切换为中小市值、高动量、高波动性、高估值、高成长，且风格稳健，发现该基金经理喜欢买小票、买热门板块。由此给他贴上标签：中小市值、热门板块投资、历史风格稳定。\n再观察行业收益的特征：持仓集中度较高，医药买了将近50%的仓位，机械买了近40%，一旦看好行业，下注比较重；行业切换上，对周期敏锐度强，在去年二季度大笔切换到机械和化工上，而市场整体高度关注这两个行业是在四季度。据此，可贴标签：行业集中。\n最后，观察到该基金去年二季度在分析师热度因子上暴露较低，意味着他比分析师预期更早，并且他的后期操作与分析师推荐是相逆的，分析师越推荐的他越卖，说明他：左侧/信息变化敏感。\n据此，叶尔乐得出结论：该基金经理在2020.01-2021.03管理这只基金期间表现出了较强的动态投资能力和中小市值投资风格。其能够快速处理市场信息，在左侧右侧临界点果决且集中的调整仓位，进行有效的中观行业配置和个股动态操作，投资较为热门但市值偏中小的板块，避免了当时拥挤的大白马板块。\n分析了这样一位基金经理后，叶尔乐认为，可以以这个基金经理的“个性”为目标，把同类的基金经理都找出来，构建一个组合。\n比如构建一个同样都是动态收益能力较强的基金经理的组合，或者把同样都是选股能力强的、同样都是行业配置能力强的某一类基金经理调出来，继续跟踪，分析这个组合适应什么样的市场。当你需要什么特征的基金经理，国盛金工可以通过量化的方式，将其从基金经理的组合中筛选出来。\n国盛金工在Wind上构建有长期跟踪的基金组合：国盛选基策略，该组合这两年收益表现十分不错。\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n这种划分基金经理能力的方法，是叶尔乐这篇研报的重要贡献。他将基金经理的维度做了一个重新的划分，划分为各种各样的能力和投资逻辑，相比以往按行业、按简单风格来划分基金经理，这种方式更为稳定。\n\n对于普通投资者来说，在买基金时也应该更多地关注基金经理所具备的各种能力。我们的公众号“远川投资评论”经常会更新一些基金经理的研究和访谈，可以作为大家了解基金经理能力圈的一个窗口。\n通过不断学习，你就会知道哪些基金经理擅长股票交易，哪些擅长选股，还有哪些行业配置能力较强，从而去选择符合我们偏好类型的基金。\n对于基金经理把握不了的能力，比如市值上的能力，我们可以通过搭配不同市场风格（比如大盘小盘）的基金来构建组合从而分散基金风险。\n不过在构建基金组合时，每个人的预期收益和风险偏好不一样，了解自己，根据自己的需求去配置基金才是最重要的。\n最后，叶尔乐对普通基民给出了一些建议：\n1. 切勿盲目跟风购买支付宝首页推荐基金，当所有人都在买时需要谨慎。\n2. 不要期待规模超50亿的基金能带来很强的风格行业以外超额收益。国盛金工对基金规模做过一个测试，基金的阿尔法平均来看在管理规模5~20亿之间最强，一旦基金经理管理的规模变的特别大，阿尔法大概率会有所衰竭。\n3. 基民在没有明显判断能力的情况下，建议定投分散成本，降低胜率敏感性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177379914,"gmtCreate":1627183226538,"gmtModify":1703485225901,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o","listText":"o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177379914","repostId":"1161895834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161895834","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627179003,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161895834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-25 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What are we buying when we buy funds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161895834","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲","content":"<p>There is \"lithium\" all over the world, but it is difficult to move without \"lithium\". Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their power, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks may account for a small proportion of a single fund, but the risk of combining it in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the middle and small markets, and the risks are more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are profitable for a long time, and they are also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are we buying when we buy funds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are we buying when we buy funds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is \"lithium\" all over the world, but it is difficult to move without \"lithium\". Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their power, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks may account for a small proportion of a single fund, but the risk of combining it in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the middle and small markets, and the risks are more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are profitable for a long time, and they are also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161895834","content_text":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲动，于是去寻找一只新能源主题基金，准备买入。\n“部分投资者买基金是先自己看好一些板块，比如消费军工之类的，然后再在市场中去找与自己想法持仓最像的基金经理，然后去买它，这有点本末倒置了”国盛金工的叶尔乐说，“对同一个股或行业的配置，每个基金经理的逻辑可能完全不一样，最终能赚到的钱也完全不一样”。\n叶尔乐认为，我们常常会问基金经理“买了什么”而不知道“为什么买”，而后一个问题可能更为重要。最近，他的一篇研究报告《公募基金究竟赚的什么钱—基金ALPHA进化史系列报告》引起了业内广泛关注，受到多家机构的一致好评。他在报告中详细分析了基金的收益来源，并介绍了不同于传统的划分基金经理能力的方法。\n\n国盛金工分析师 叶尔乐\n上个月，我们远川研究所对话了国盛金工分析师叶尔乐，对公募基金究竟赚的是什么钱进行了一系列的探讨，希望通过这次交谈，能够就“买基金”这件事给投资者们带来新的启发。\n以下，是叶尔乐对买基金买的是什么、基金经理具备哪些能力、怎么去构建基金组合等问题的一些看法。\n\n很多人买基金时，会问到“这个基金涨这么多还能买吗？”叶尔乐给出了回答：买基金和买股票不一样，股票不宜追高，但基金在某种情况下是可以“追高”的。总体来说，叶尔乐列举了基金与股票的三个区别，分别体现在定价、估值、风险分散方式上。\n股票的定价是由众人根据市场公开数据进行预期交换、预期博弈得到的结果，而基金的定价是由基金经理一个人决定的。股票要涨，是越来越多的人被某一叙事或逻辑说服而买入，基金要涨，是需要基金经理有提前感知到这样逻辑的能力，提前众人买入股票，并在众人买进来时卖掉。\n股票有明确的估值，基金没有净值意义上的估值问题。股票涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨，而基金并非涨得好的未来表现一定差，也不是以前表现差的未来一定就表现好。买基金有个外推性很强的指标，叫ALPHA中长期动量，意思是过去好的未来好，其本质就是基金经理的能力。只有基金经理某一块能力是稳定的，才能在某一细分收益上有长期动量，而某一细分收益上的长期动量也反证了基金在这类能力上是稳定的。\n股票具有公司层面的特质风险，能通过分散持有来控制，基金是股票的组合，这方面风险已经较小，其风险的控制不能仅靠简单的分散。比如买一堆偏抱团股的基金，虽然可能单个基金占比很小，但组合在“抱团因子”上的风险则非常高，一旦抱团瓦解，整个基金组合都有很大回撤风险，那这样可能还不如大盘中盘小盘各挑一个基金，风险更分散。所以，基金的风险需要穿透到底层风格来分散。\n那么基金的本质是什么呢？\n叶尔乐认为，基金不变的本质是基金经理包括性格、投资体系、信息来源以及投资模式等所谓的能力圈。经过多年进化，基金经理已经很难用“大小盘”、“价值成长”、“行业主题”等简单投资风格去划分，这样的划分稳定性较弱，需要进一步对基金收益进行归因，从而归纳出基金经理的选股逻辑，划分出基金经理的真正能力。\n\n公募基金究竟赚哪些钱？\n叶尔乐在报告中对公募基金的收益进行归因后得出，基金收益中有基金经理不能稳定赚到的钱、不可避免要亏掉的钱、以及能够稳定赚到的钱。\n首先，基金在市值和估值方面赚的钱是不稳定的。市值上只赚过两波钱，一波是14~16年小市值的钱，一波是去年底到今年初的大市值的钱，市值的钱很难把握。在估值上，公募基金偏好高估值股票，这在19年之前带来的是负收益，之后是正收益，估值层面赚的钱也不是稳定的。\n再者，公募基金偏好高波动性和高流动性股票，这使得基金长期亏钱。高波动性是指股票在过去大涨大跌，这会引起交易上的损失。而公募基金受制于大体量和公开募集的属性，必须买高流动性票，高流动性对应高定价效率，快逻辑的钱在这些股票上持续时间近年在越来越短，公募难以做高频交易，很难赚到这种快逻辑的钱，基本将其让渡给私募高频交易者。\n因此，无论是市值、估值的钱，或是高波动性、高流动性的钱，都不是大部分基金经理能够稳定把握的。叶尔乐认为，买基金时更应该关注的是基金经理稳定赚钱的能力。\n那么公募在不能赚快钱的情况下，只能赚慢钱。慢逻辑的钱体现在两种风格收益上：动量和成长。所谓动量，是指一个逻辑只有是慢慢发酵的，最终才可能使股价在过去12个月稳定上涨，这种稳稳上涨的特征叶尔乐称之为动量。而成长就是公司具有成长性，成长性的验证需要时间从而也靠慢逻辑。\n关于赚成长逻辑的钱，叶尔乐总结了三个优点：（1）成长的逻辑需要时间验证，无法在短期反应充分，留给基金经理足够的时间；（2）成长的逻辑短期会有兑现，即可根据季报阶段性验证，每次验证能兑现部分超额收益，使股票连续上涨；（3）成长的逻辑相比价值逻辑是强可验证的，因为估值的回归依赖很多外部的宏观或市场因素，而成长逻辑比如对公司5年增速的判断，那么在未来5年一定存在一个事实验证5年前的话对与否。\n叶尔乐认为，公募基金最主要是预测公司业绩，赚成长逻辑的钱。因为目前公募多以短期业绩考核为主，成长比价值更具有性价比：价值回归可能要等1到3年才赚到超额收益，时间高度不确定，而成长股每个季度都能有逻辑兑现。\n从策略视角，叶尔乐介绍了除业绩增长外，基金在公司层面长期赚钱的另一个因子—分析师热度。分析师热度是指基金经理通常会密切关注分析师的推荐，从而转化为自己的投资逻辑。相比于公众的信息来源优势也是公募基金长期赚钱的原因，基金经理拥有更快接收信息的渠道。\n总的来说，公募基金在动量、成长、分析师热度这些因子上是长期赚钱的，也是基金经理的能力所在，而市值和估值这种风格类收益，以及高波动性高流动性这种交易类收益则是基金经理无法把握的。\n\n在了解了基金收益来源之后，具体到基金经理能力标签的划分、基金组合的构建时又该如何操作呢？\n叶尔乐通过举例来告诉我们如何去分析一只基金。他以今年表现较好的一只基金为例，对这只基金的收益做了量化归因，从而归纳出了基金经理所具备的能力标签。\n首先叶尔乐将基金收益完全分解成四大收益来源，该基金在“策略收益”收益上表现一般，“动态收益”上贡献较大，这意味着基金经理总体选股能力一般，但做波段能力较强。该基金还在“行业收益”上贡献较大，意味着它行业选得好。据此，可以给基金经理贴上标签：动态收益能力、行业配置能力。\n\n接着分析基金的“风格收益”，该基金自2020年换基金经理后，风格切换为中小市值、高动量、高波动性、高估值、高成长，且风格稳健，发现该基金经理喜欢买小票、买热门板块。由此给他贴上标签：中小市值、热门板块投资、历史风格稳定。\n再观察行业收益的特征：持仓集中度较高，医药买了将近50%的仓位，机械买了近40%，一旦看好行业，下注比较重；行业切换上，对周期敏锐度强，在去年二季度大笔切换到机械和化工上，而市场整体高度关注这两个行业是在四季度。据此，可贴标签：行业集中。\n最后，观察到该基金去年二季度在分析师热度因子上暴露较低，意味着他比分析师预期更早，并且他的后期操作与分析师推荐是相逆的，分析师越推荐的他越卖，说明他：左侧/信息变化敏感。\n据此，叶尔乐得出结论：该基金经理在2020.01-2021.03管理这只基金期间表现出了较强的动态投资能力和中小市值投资风格。其能够快速处理市场信息，在左侧右侧临界点果决且集中的调整仓位，进行有效的中观行业配置和个股动态操作，投资较为热门但市值偏中小的板块，避免了当时拥挤的大白马板块。\n分析了这样一位基金经理后，叶尔乐认为，可以以这个基金经理的“个性”为目标，把同类的基金经理都找出来，构建一个组合。\n比如构建一个同样都是动态收益能力较强的基金经理的组合，或者把同样都是选股能力强的、同样都是行业配置能力强的某一类基金经理调出来，继续跟踪，分析这个组合适应什么样的市场。当你需要什么特征的基金经理，国盛金工可以通过量化的方式，将其从基金经理的组合中筛选出来。\n国盛金工在Wind上构建有长期跟踪的基金组合：国盛选基策略，该组合这两年收益表现十分不错。\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n这种划分基金经理能力的方法，是叶尔乐这篇研报的重要贡献。他将基金经理的维度做了一个重新的划分，划分为各种各样的能力和投资逻辑，相比以往按行业、按简单风格来划分基金经理，这种方式更为稳定。\n\n对于普通投资者来说，在买基金时也应该更多地关注基金经理所具备的各种能力。我们的公众号“远川投资评论”经常会更新一些基金经理的研究和访谈，可以作为大家了解基金经理能力圈的一个窗口。\n通过不断学习，你就会知道哪些基金经理擅长股票交易，哪些擅长选股，还有哪些行业配置能力较强，从而去选择符合我们偏好类型的基金。\n对于基金经理把握不了的能力，比如市值上的能力，我们可以通过搭配不同市场风格（比如大盘小盘）的基金来构建组合从而分散基金风险。\n不过在构建基金组合时，每个人的预期收益和风险偏好不一样，了解自己，根据自己的需求去配置基金才是最重要的。\n最后，叶尔乐对普通基民给出了一些建议：\n1. 切勿盲目跟风购买支付宝首页推荐基金，当所有人都在买时需要谨慎。\n2. 不要期待规模超50亿的基金能带来很强的风格行业以外超额收益。国盛金工对基金规模做过一个测试，基金的阿尔法平均来看在管理规模5~20亿之间最强，一旦基金经理管理的规模变的特别大，阿尔法大概率会有所衰竭。\n3. 基民在没有明显判断能力的情况下，建议定投分散成本，降低胜率敏感性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173588113,"gmtCreate":1626670109632,"gmtModify":1703763065145,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173588113","repostId":"1162382593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148721072,"gmtCreate":1626019639096,"gmtModify":1703752010796,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148721072","repostId":"1114379787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148723694,"gmtCreate":1626019575918,"gmtModify":1703752009988,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148723694","repostId":"1155854665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143792598,"gmtCreate":1625815880114,"gmtModify":1703749116710,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143792598","repostId":"1193107255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149169575,"gmtCreate":1625709624697,"gmtModify":1703746842774,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149169575","repostId":"1124799487","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154450720,"gmtCreate":1625540589060,"gmtModify":1703743337391,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154450720","repostId":"1187560969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187560969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625540177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187560969?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks are afraid to fall gold will rise? The 'pain index' already says it all","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187560969","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"“经济痛苦指数”最早由美国经济学家欧肯提出,该指数通过将失业率和通货膨胀水平相加,以评估民众的实际经济压力，也是衡量经济滞胀程度的一个指标，并且该指数历来与美国股市、黄金价格呈高度相关性。\n目前，伴随","content":"<p>The \"Economic Pain Index\" was first put forward by American economist Oken. This index assesses the actual economic pressure of people by adding the unemployment rate and inflation level, and it is also an index to measure the degree of economic stagflation. Moreover, this index has always been highly correlated with the American stock market and gold price.</p><p>At present, with the inflation rate and unemployment rate soaring all the way, the S&P 500 index is still at a high level for many years relative to gold, which is more beneficial to gold. The following table shows the correlation between the Pain Index and the S&P 500/Gold ratio, dating back to the 1950s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff22e419bd5b69016be3e16762e43f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the ratio is quite high, far above the reasonable level of the pain index. The previous times of such large differences were 1971, 1975 and 2000. In the following years, S&P has performed very poorly and gold has strengthened.</p><p>The chart below shows the overvaluation or undervaluation of the S&P 500/Gold ratio relative to the Pain Index and the subsequent 10-year return.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ddfffc958e0830c0084d07c49253c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is clear that the relationship between the equity-to-gold ratio is an interesting phenomenon and not sufficient as an investment decision, but there is more evidence that US stocks will face prolonged weakness relative to precious metals, especially as the pain index continues to rise.</p><p>One hypothesis underpinning current monetary policy decisions is that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. That is, if unemployment is high, it reflects economic weakness, and loose monetary policy can reduce this weakness, but at the cost of enduring rising inflation.</p><p>Indeed, easy monetary policy at the moment is a key factor in rising inflation and unemployment — politicians have done little to stop increased spending thanks to the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue funding massive fiscal deficits, which is why we're seeing welfare spending soar, hampering the recovery of the labor market while driving up inflation.</p><p>With government spending increasingly funded by printing money rather than taxes, many voters now see any political party's reluctance to increase social spending as unethical. Therefore, as long as both parties in the United States are unwilling to cut spending, loose fiscal policy is likely to continue, and it is foreseeable that gold prices will outperform U.S. stocks by a large margin.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Wells Fargo Securities also issued a warning recently, saying that the day of liquidation of technology stocks is expected to come soon, and U.S. stocks are expected to plummet by 12%, urging investors to take profits.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks are afraid to fall gold will rise? The 'pain index' already says it all</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks are afraid to fall gold will rise? The 'pain index' already says it all\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-06 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The \"Economic Pain Index\" was first put forward by American economist Oken. This index assesses the actual economic pressure of people by adding the unemployment rate and inflation level, and it is also an index to measure the degree of economic stagflation. Moreover, this index has always been highly correlated with the American stock market and gold price.</p><p>At present, with the inflation rate and unemployment rate soaring all the way, the S&P 500 index is still at a high level for many years relative to gold, which is more beneficial to gold. The following table shows the correlation between the Pain Index and the S&P 500/Gold ratio, dating back to the 1950s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff22e419bd5b69016be3e16762e43f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the ratio is quite high, far above the reasonable level of the pain index. The previous times of such large differences were 1971, 1975 and 2000. In the following years, S&P has performed very poorly and gold has strengthened.</p><p>The chart below shows the overvaluation or undervaluation of the S&P 500/Gold ratio relative to the Pain Index and the subsequent 10-year return.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ddfffc958e0830c0084d07c49253c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is clear that the relationship between the equity-to-gold ratio is an interesting phenomenon and not sufficient as an investment decision, but there is more evidence that US stocks will face prolonged weakness relative to precious metals, especially as the pain index continues to rise.</p><p>One hypothesis underpinning current monetary policy decisions is that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. That is, if unemployment is high, it reflects economic weakness, and loose monetary policy can reduce this weakness, but at the cost of enduring rising inflation.</p><p>Indeed, easy monetary policy at the moment is a key factor in rising inflation and unemployment — politicians have done little to stop increased spending thanks to the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue funding massive fiscal deficits, which is why we're seeing welfare spending soar, hampering the recovery of the labor market while driving up inflation.</p><p>With government spending increasingly funded by printing money rather than taxes, many voters now see any political party's reluctance to increase social spending as unethical. Therefore, as long as both parties in the United States are unwilling to cut spending, loose fiscal policy is likely to continue, and it is foreseeable that gold prices will outperform U.S. stocks by a large margin.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Wells Fargo Securities also issued a warning recently, saying that the day of liquidation of technology stocks is expected to come soon, and U.S. stocks are expected to plummet by 12%, urging investors to take profits.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508013.html\">智通财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508013.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1187560969","content_text":"“经济痛苦指数”最早由美国经济学家欧肯提出,该指数通过将失业率和通货膨胀水平相加,以评估民众的实际经济压力，也是衡量经济滞胀程度的一个指标，并且该指数历来与美国股市、黄金价格呈高度相关性。\n目前，伴随通胀率、失业率一路飙升，标普500指数相对于黄金仍处于多年高位，这对黄金较为有利。下表显示了痛苦指数与标准普尔500指数/黄金比率之间的相关性，可以追溯到20世纪50年代。\n\n目前该比率相当高，远远高于痛苦指数的合理水平，此前出现过如此巨大差异的时间分别是1971年、1975年和2000年，此后几年时间里，标普表现都非常糟糕，黄金走强。\n下图显示了标普500指数/黄金比率相对于痛苦指数的高估或低估，以及随后的10年期回报率。\n\n很明显，股票与黄金比率之间的关系是一个有趣的现象，并不足以作为投资决策，但更多的证据表明，相对于贵金属而言，美国股市将面临长期疲软，特别是在痛苦指数继续上升的情况下。\n支撑当前货币政策决策的一个假设是，通胀率和失业率之间存在反向关系。即如果失业率很高，反映了经济的疲软，而宽松的货币政策可以降低这种疲软，但代价是得忍受持续上升的通胀率。\n事实上，目前宽松的货币政策是通胀和失业率上升的一个关键因素——由于美联储愿意继续为巨额财政赤字提供资金，政客们几乎没有阻止增加支出，这就是为什么我们看到福利支出飙升，阻碍劳动力市场的复苏，同时推高通货膨胀。\n随着政府支出越来越多地由印钞而不是税收来提供资金，许多选民现在认为任何政党不愿增加社会支出的行为都是不道德的。因此，只要美国两党都不愿意削减开支，宽松的财政政策很有可能继续下去，可以预见的是金价将大幅跑赢美股。\n值得一提的时，富国证券近日也发出警告，称科技股清算的日子预计很快将到来，预计美股将大跌12%,敦促投资者获利了结。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154845828,"gmtCreate":1625503383164,"gmtModify":1703742790966,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oo","listText":"oo","text":"oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154845828","repostId":"1158392841","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154845095,"gmtCreate":1625503337417,"gmtModify":1703742789803,"author":{"id":"4087300083147710","authorId":"4087300083147710","name":"bkloh1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb66730db127d226356e0dcabc7aa977","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087300083147710","authorIdStr":"4087300083147710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oo","listText":"oo","text":"oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154845095","repostId":"2149080331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}