Profile - To The Moon

kellywei

Posts · 8Posts · 8
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- kellyweikellywei
  ·2022-08-08
  B
  Buffett's huge investment losses in the second quarter reflect many problems.
  越老的人，就越容易陷入经验主义。
  Buffett's huge investment losses in the second quarter reflect many problems.
  3.27K Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
No following yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4088123236957940","uuid":"4088123236957940","gmtCreate":1625021673304,"gmtModify":1626314804229,"name":"kellywei","pinyin":"kellywei","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7a94e79547f6a966cbbd46a75b1fbd","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":113,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.17","exceedPercentage":"93.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.15","exceedPercentage":"80.63%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9905742155,"gmtCreate":1659946736579,"gmtModify":1703476281708,"author":{"id":"4088123236957940","authorId":"4088123236957940","name":"kellywei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7a94e79547f6a966cbbd46a75b1fbd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088123236957940","authorIdStr":"4088123236957940"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905742155","repostId":"1146545010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146545010","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659930312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146545010?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-08 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Buffett's huge investment losses in the second quarter reflect many problems.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146545010","media":"格隆汇","summary":"越老的人，就越容易陷入经验主义。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Xiao</p><p>The stock market guru has gone awry.</p><p>Second quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's revenue reached $76.18 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, slightly exceeding market expectations; Operating profit was $9.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. However, due to huge losses in investments and derivatives, it suffered a net loss of $43.755 billion in the second quarter, compared to a net profit of $28.094 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This car has indeed overturned quite a bit.</p><p>In June of this year, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price experienced a sustained and abnormally sharp drop, far lagging behind several major US stock indices. This was because the market was worried that the investment returns of several of its leading investment targets would experience a significant pullback/retracement in the second quarter due to the continued sharp drop in stock prices. This has now been confirmed to be the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbbe03e6f7ebbec647266eca1524748\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In general, Berkshire Hathaway's performance collapse was in line with expectations, but if we consider the current changes in the global economic situation in the United States and Buffett's series of investment operations in the second quarter, there are many points worth thinking about and discussing.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway reported a net loss of $53.38 billion in investments and derivatives, with a book loss of $66.86 billion in stocks.</b></p><p>In terms of holdings, as of June 30, approximately 69% of the fair value of the company's total investment was concentrated in...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($125.1 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>($32.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Company ($25.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>($23.7 billion) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21 billion).</p><p>However, in the second quarter, these heavily held stocks all experienced significant declines. Apple's stock price fell by more than 21.63%, American Express fell by more than 25.46%, Bank of America fell by 24%, and Chevron fell by nearly 11%. Only Coca-Cola bucked the trend and rose by 2.22% in the second quarter. Most of the other holdings also followed the market decline to varying degrees. Ultimately, the book value of its stock portfolio fell to $328 billion from $391 billion at the end of March.</p><p>In the second quarter, Buffett's operating profit of $9.28 billion covered the group's insurance, railway, and utilities businesses. Except for insurance, which increased the cost of repairing and replacing damaged vehicles due to inflation and rising used car prices, resulting in underwriting losses of $487 million, the railway, energy, and utilities sectors actually achieved growth due to inflation passing on costs.</p><p><b>However, it is worth noting that Buffett sold $2.3 billion worth of stock in the second quarter, spending only $6.2 billion on new stock purchases (mostly used to increase his holdings).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Compared to the $51.1 billion spending spree in the first quarter, this is a very obvious defensive move, and even makes people feel pessimistic about the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Buffett's actions, even if not pessimistic about the future of the stock market, are a tacit admission that the current stock market prices are not cost-effective.</b></p><p>Although Buffett urged everyone in his new press release not to pay too much attention to quarterly fluctuations and to take a long-term view, it is difficult to restore investor confidence under the current macroeconomic situation.</p><p>Investments are based on the underlying business performance of the target company and expectations for the future, but the larger the market capitalization of the invested company, the more it aligns with the economic cycle. Especially when its business has become so large that it is global, it will inevitably be affected by the global economic situation.</p><p>The reason why Buffett has always insisted on investing in accordance with the national destiny of the United States is indeed that although the United States has experienced several rounds of financial crises since World War II, it has generally maintained very strong growth. American companies have not only long enjoyed the various dividends of the rapid development of the domestic economy and technology, but also benefited from the global export of dollar capital, reaping the greater benefits of the era of economic globalization.</p><p>Therefore, the US stock market is the strongest in the world, along with Apple.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Even trillion-dollar market capitalization giants have achieved such enormous growth by reaping the benefits of globalization.</p><p>For example, nearly 70% of Buffett's current holdings are concentrated in those few global giants:</p><p><b>Apple's domestic revenue in the United States accounts for just over a third of its total revenue, while its global business already makes up the majority (Europe accounts for a quarter, Greater China accounts for nearly a fifth, and Japan and other Asia-Pacific regions account for about 15%). Coca-Cola's North American business accounts for only one-third of the month, while other international regions account for two-thirds; Chevron's domestic business in the United States accounts for 56%, and its international business accounts for 44%. American Express's international business accounts for more than 20%, while Bank of America's international business also accounts for 13%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0bfd0437f51c1b05c93981cabdbc3\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These companies, apart from domestic financial institutions in the United States, are all deeply intertwined with the global economy, sharing weal and woe.</p><p><b>Looking at the current situation, the global economic situation is characterized by two main features. First, after the massive monetary surge triggered by the impact of the pandemic in 2020 led the United States to enter a rate hike cycle, the global economy has become more fragile, and more and more countries are falling back into recession. Second, geopolitical problems are occurring frequently, and anti-globalization is intensifying, continuously impacting economic development.</b></p><p>For example, in recent years, Europe has continuously imposed various punitive measures on American tech giants. Following the Russia-Ukraine situation, American companies have completely withdrawn from Russia, including Apple and Coca-Cola. For them, this is not only a contraction in business, but also a possible loss of assets in Russia.</p><p>Amid this wave, these global giants, even if they haven't yet entered a contraction phase, are gradually losing a significant portion of their global business growth potential, at least in the short term.</p><p>Currently, neither monetary contraction nor geopolitical tensions seem likely to turn around in the short term, meaning that the global economy will continue to face significant pressure in the near future, which in turn implies that the future business performance of these global giants still faces downside risks.</p><p>Apple's latest financial report showed revenue growth of only 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit declined by 10.6%. Apart from a slight 2.8% increase in the iPhone business, the Mac and IPad businesses began to decline.</p><p><b>Apple's total market capitalization has now exceeded $2.6 trillion, while P/E is nearly 30 times that of Apple. This means that it needs to maintain a huge amount of revenue and profits every year to support its current and future valuation levels. However, it can be seen that its growth rate is decreasing and slowing down, and it is no longer able to show the rapidity it had during its large-scale globalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc49c22a8a77b28cb4f1235f92e65e8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even if it can maintain growth through continuous product innovation and increased penetration into other economically underdeveloped countries, this is indeed becoming increasingly difficult.</p><p>Coca-Cola's logic is similar. With the rise of new beverages with multiple stock prices around the world, more and more competitors are becoming familiar with new strategies, which will further erode Coca-Cola's market share.</p><p><b>In fact, although Coca-Cola's stock price has been rising, its operating revenue has been declining since 2012. Although the decline has stopped in recent years, the revenue scale has not returned to the level of 10 years ago.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe23ef4b817274029f62444bed8af97\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, overall, apart from Apple, Buffett's investments are still mainly in the traditional economy, and these traditional corporate giants will definitely be affected by cycles.</p><p>Especially in oil, his large bets on Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have sparked much discussion because the short-term and future outlook for petrochemical energy is no longer unanimously optimistic.</p><p>Since 2021, the sharp rise in Western Petroleum's stock price has been inseparable from the continuous increase in national oil prices, especially after the Russia-Ukraine war, when the sharp increase in national oil prices brought it huge profits.</p><p>Another reason for the sharp rise is that Occidental Petroleum is using the money it earns to repurchase a large number of Duizhijia shares. Occidental Petroleum had previously launched a $3 billion repurchase program, and as of August 1, it had repurchased $1.1 billion worth of shares, about half of which were repurchased in July and the other half in the second quarter. With its rapidly growing performance and large-scale share buybacks, Occidental Petroleum's stock price will inevitably rise.</p><p>Furthermore, Occidental Petroleum's strategy in recent quarters has been to use its ample free cash flow to repay debt and to spend cash by increasing dividends, rather than increasing investment in oil and gas projects. This approach is indeed very attractive to shareholders in the short term, but in the long run, it also reflects a lack of confidence in the future and a reluctance to expand production rashly.</p><p>This is an inevitable law of the traditional energy industry cycle, but another influencing factor is that the global economic downturn has intensified, and OPEC has also increased production to cope with the impact of getting rid of its dependence on Russian energy. However, Russia's exports will not be significantly reduced as a result; it will simply shift its export targets. Ultimately, under the distorted balance where the global economic downturn leads to a decrease in total demand for traditional energy while geopolitical influences lead to an actual increase in total supply capacity, oil prices are more likely to decline in the future.</p><p>If oil prices decline in the future, Occidental Petroleum, which mainly operates in the United States, will certainly not be immune to the impact and will still face new revenue growth pressures, which will greatly affect its growth potential.</p><p>As of the end of June, Berkshire Hathaway held 181.7 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, representing a 19.5% stake. Although Buffett has already gained the upper hand in this investment, many investors still have doubts about whether he can continue to win in the future if he continues to hold it.</p><p><b>It's hard to see who is right and who is wrong. In fact, if Berkshire Hathaway weren't known as a stock market guru but as an ordinary investment institution, investors might have chosen to stay away from it long ago.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The older people get, the more likely they are to fall into empiricism. Warren Buffett is indeed a seasoned investor, but judging from his series of investment actions and styles over the years, he is indeed very old.</p><p>This aging is reflected in his willingness to invest only in traditional sectors he is familiar with, while lacking understanding and adapting to emerging fields. Therefore, apart from Apple, most of his holdings are in traditional sectors, significantly missing out on Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Waiting for super-growth companies.</p><p>Admittedly, with the long-term steady growth of the US economy and the inflation brought about by long-term monetary easing, holding on to the leading companies in traditional industries can indeed achieve steady and good returns. However, the opportunity cost they miss in emerging fields is also enormous.</p><p>This cost can be seen in the rapidly rising female stock market guru, Sister Mutou.</p><p><b>In other words, if the stock market guru were sufficiently adaptable to the times and had a clear understanding to spend more money allocating to emerging sectors, then Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization would be far greater than this, and it would have long since surpassed a trillion-dollar market capitalization.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett's huge investment losses in the second quarter reflect many problems.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett's huge investment losses in the second quarter reflect many problems.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-08 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Xiao</p><p>The stock market guru has gone awry.</p><p>Second quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's revenue reached $76.18 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, slightly exceeding market expectations; Operating profit was $9.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. However, due to huge losses in investments and derivatives, it suffered a net loss of $43.755 billion in the second quarter, compared to a net profit of $28.094 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This car has indeed overturned quite a bit.</p><p>In June of this year, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price experienced a sustained and abnormally sharp drop, far lagging behind several major US stock indices. This was because the market was worried that the investment returns of several of its leading investment targets would experience a significant pullback/retracement in the second quarter due to the continued sharp drop in stock prices. This has now been confirmed to be the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbbe03e6f7ebbec647266eca1524748\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In general, Berkshire Hathaway's performance collapse was in line with expectations, but if we consider the current changes in the global economic situation in the United States and Buffett's series of investment operations in the second quarter, there are many points worth thinking about and discussing.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway reported a net loss of $53.38 billion in investments and derivatives, with a book loss of $66.86 billion in stocks.</b></p><p>In terms of holdings, as of June 30, approximately 69% of the fair value of the company's total investment was concentrated in...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>($125.1 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>($32.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Company ($25.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>($23.7 billion) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21 billion).</p><p>However, in the second quarter, these heavily held stocks all experienced significant declines. Apple's stock price fell by more than 21.63%, American Express fell by more than 25.46%, Bank of America fell by 24%, and Chevron fell by nearly 11%. Only Coca-Cola bucked the trend and rose by 2.22% in the second quarter. Most of the other holdings also followed the market decline to varying degrees. Ultimately, the book value of its stock portfolio fell to $328 billion from $391 billion at the end of March.</p><p>In the second quarter, Buffett's operating profit of $9.28 billion covered the group's insurance, railway, and utilities businesses. Except for insurance, which increased the cost of repairing and replacing damaged vehicles due to inflation and rising used car prices, resulting in underwriting losses of $487 million, the railway, energy, and utilities sectors actually achieved growth due to inflation passing on costs.</p><p><b>However, it is worth noting that Buffett sold $2.3 billion worth of stock in the second quarter, spending only $6.2 billion on new stock purchases (mostly used to increase his holdings).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Compared to the $51.1 billion spending spree in the first quarter, this is a very obvious defensive move, and even makes people feel pessimistic about the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Buffett's actions, even if not pessimistic about the future of the stock market, are a tacit admission that the current stock market prices are not cost-effective.</b></p><p>Although Buffett urged everyone in his new press release not to pay too much attention to quarterly fluctuations and to take a long-term view, it is difficult to restore investor confidence under the current macroeconomic situation.</p><p>Investments are based on the underlying business performance of the target company and expectations for the future, but the larger the market capitalization of the invested company, the more it aligns with the economic cycle. Especially when its business has become so large that it is global, it will inevitably be affected by the global economic situation.</p><p>The reason why Buffett has always insisted on investing in accordance with the national destiny of the United States is indeed that although the United States has experienced several rounds of financial crises since World War II, it has generally maintained very strong growth. American companies have not only long enjoyed the various dividends of the rapid development of the domestic economy and technology, but also benefited from the global export of dollar capital, reaping the greater benefits of the era of economic globalization.</p><p>Therefore, the US stock market is the strongest in the world, along with Apple.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Even trillion-dollar market capitalization giants have achieved such enormous growth by reaping the benefits of globalization.</p><p>For example, nearly 70% of Buffett's current holdings are concentrated in those few global giants:</p><p><b>Apple's domestic revenue in the United States accounts for just over a third of its total revenue, while its global business already makes up the majority (Europe accounts for a quarter, Greater China accounts for nearly a fifth, and Japan and other Asia-Pacific regions account for about 15%). Coca-Cola's North American business accounts for only one-third of the month, while other international regions account for two-thirds; Chevron's domestic business in the United States accounts for 56%, and its international business accounts for 44%. American Express's international business accounts for more than 20%, while Bank of America's international business also accounts for 13%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0bfd0437f51c1b05c93981cabdbc3\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These companies, apart from domestic financial institutions in the United States, are all deeply intertwined with the global economy, sharing weal and woe.</p><p><b>Looking at the current situation, the global economic situation is characterized by two main features. First, after the massive monetary surge triggered by the impact of the pandemic in 2020 led the United States to enter a rate hike cycle, the global economy has become more fragile, and more and more countries are falling back into recession. Second, geopolitical problems are occurring frequently, and anti-globalization is intensifying, continuously impacting economic development.</b></p><p>For example, in recent years, Europe has continuously imposed various punitive measures on American tech giants. Following the Russia-Ukraine situation, American companies have completely withdrawn from Russia, including Apple and Coca-Cola. For them, this is not only a contraction in business, but also a possible loss of assets in Russia.</p><p>Amid this wave, these global giants, even if they haven't yet entered a contraction phase, are gradually losing a significant portion of their global business growth potential, at least in the short term.</p><p>Currently, neither monetary contraction nor geopolitical tensions seem likely to turn around in the short term, meaning that the global economy will continue to face significant pressure in the near future, which in turn implies that the future business performance of these global giants still faces downside risks.</p><p>Apple's latest financial report showed revenue growth of only 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit declined by 10.6%. Apart from a slight 2.8% increase in the iPhone business, the Mac and IPad businesses began to decline.</p><p><b>Apple's total market capitalization has now exceeded $2.6 trillion, while P/E is nearly 30 times that of Apple. This means that it needs to maintain a huge amount of revenue and profits every year to support its current and future valuation levels. However, it can be seen that its growth rate is decreasing and slowing down, and it is no longer able to show the rapidity it had during its large-scale globalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc49c22a8a77b28cb4f1235f92e65e8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even if it can maintain growth through continuous product innovation and increased penetration into other economically underdeveloped countries, this is indeed becoming increasingly difficult.</p><p>Coca-Cola's logic is similar. With the rise of new beverages with multiple stock prices around the world, more and more competitors are becoming familiar with new strategies, which will further erode Coca-Cola's market share.</p><p><b>In fact, although Coca-Cola's stock price has been rising, its operating revenue has been declining since 2012. Although the decline has stopped in recent years, the revenue scale has not returned to the level of 10 years ago.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe23ef4b817274029f62444bed8af97\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, overall, apart from Apple, Buffett's investments are still mainly in the traditional economy, and these traditional corporate giants will definitely be affected by cycles.</p><p>Especially in oil, his large bets on Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have sparked much discussion because the short-term and future outlook for petrochemical energy is no longer unanimously optimistic.</p><p>Since 2021, the sharp rise in Western Petroleum's stock price has been inseparable from the continuous increase in national oil prices, especially after the Russia-Ukraine war, when the sharp increase in national oil prices brought it huge profits.</p><p>Another reason for the sharp rise is that Occidental Petroleum is using the money it earns to repurchase a large number of Duizhijia shares. Occidental Petroleum had previously launched a $3 billion repurchase program, and as of August 1, it had repurchased $1.1 billion worth of shares, about half of which were repurchased in July and the other half in the second quarter. With its rapidly growing performance and large-scale share buybacks, Occidental Petroleum's stock price will inevitably rise.</p><p>Furthermore, Occidental Petroleum's strategy in recent quarters has been to use its ample free cash flow to repay debt and to spend cash by increasing dividends, rather than increasing investment in oil and gas projects. This approach is indeed very attractive to shareholders in the short term, but in the long run, it also reflects a lack of confidence in the future and a reluctance to expand production rashly.</p><p>This is an inevitable law of the traditional energy industry cycle, but another influencing factor is that the global economic downturn has intensified, and OPEC has also increased production to cope with the impact of getting rid of its dependence on Russian energy. However, Russia's exports will not be significantly reduced as a result; it will simply shift its export targets. Ultimately, under the distorted balance where the global economic downturn leads to a decrease in total demand for traditional energy while geopolitical influences lead to an actual increase in total supply capacity, oil prices are more likely to decline in the future.</p><p>If oil prices decline in the future, Occidental Petroleum, which mainly operates in the United States, will certainly not be immune to the impact and will still face new revenue growth pressures, which will greatly affect its growth potential.</p><p>As of the end of June, Berkshire Hathaway held 181.7 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, representing a 19.5% stake. Although Buffett has already gained the upper hand in this investment, many investors still have doubts about whether he can continue to win in the future if he continues to hold it.</p><p><b>It's hard to see who is right and who is wrong. In fact, if Berkshire Hathaway weren't known as a stock market guru but as an ordinary investment institution, investors might have chosen to stay away from it long ago.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The older people get, the more likely they are to fall into empiricism. Warren Buffett is indeed a seasoned investor, but judging from his series of investment actions and styles over the years, he is indeed very old.</p><p>This aging is reflected in his willingness to invest only in traditional sectors he is familiar with, while lacking understanding and adapting to emerging fields. Therefore, apart from Apple, most of his holdings are in traditional sectors, significantly missing out on Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Waiting for super-growth companies.</p><p>Admittedly, with the long-term steady growth of the US economy and the inflation brought about by long-term monetary easing, holding on to the leading companies in traditional industries can indeed achieve steady and good returns. However, the opportunity cost they miss in emerging fields is also enormous.</p><p>This cost can be seen in the rapidly rising female stock market guru, Sister Mutou.</p><p><b>In other words, if the stock market guru were sufficiently adaptable to the times and had a clear understanding to spend more money allocating to emerging sectors, then Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization would be far greater than this, and it would have long since surpassed a trillion-dollar market capitalization.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8356647b06585ac937a0f45e6aeb17","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1146545010","content_text":"作者：陈肖股神翻车了。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司营收761.8亿美元，同比增长10.2%，略超市场预期；运营利润92.8亿美元，同比增长了38.7%。但由于投资和衍生品出现巨亏，导致其二季度净亏损了437.55亿美元，而在去年同期，它的净利润是280.94亿美元。这车，翻得确实的有点大了。在今年6月，伯克希尔的股价一度出现持续异常大暴跌，远差于美股几大指数，背后是市场在对其所持有的数个头部投资标的由于股价持续大跌而担心该股公司的投资收益会在二季度出现大幅回撤。如今证实结果却是如此。大概来看，伯克希尔的业绩翻车其实符合预期，但如果结合当前美国已经全球经济形势变化，以及巴菲特二季度一系列投资操作看，有很多值得思考探讨的地方。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资和衍生品净亏损533.8亿美元，其中股票帐面亏损高达668.6亿美元。持仓方面，截至6月30日，公司总投资的公允价值约69%集中在苹果（1251亿美元）、美国银行（322亿美元）、可口可乐公司（252亿美元）、雪佛龙（237亿美元）和美国运通（210亿美元）。但二季度，这些重仓股都基本出现大幅下跌，苹果股价跌超21.63%，美国运通跌逾25.46%，美国银行跌24%，雪佛龙跌近11%，只有可口可乐在二季度逆势上涨了2.22%，其他持仓股大部分也不同程度地跟随大市下滑。最终，其股票投资组合账面价值从3月底的3910亿美元降至3280亿美元。在二季度，巴菲特的运营利润92.8亿美元中，范畴涵盖集团拥有的保险、铁路和公用事业等业务，除了保险因为通货膨胀和二手车价格上涨导致修理和更换受损车辆的成本增加导致承保损失为4.87亿美元外，铁路、能源和公用事业板块因为通胀转嫁成本，反而实现了增长。但值得注意的是，巴菲特二季度抛售了23亿美元的股票，仅花了62亿美元用于购买的新股票（大部分用在了增持西方石油）），对比一季度511亿美元的买买买，是在非常明显的防守，甚至让人感觉到对股市的看淡。巴菲特这种操作，即使不是对未来股市看淡，也是对当前股市的价格认为没有性价比的默认。尽管巴菲特在新新闻稿中呼吁大家不要过度在意季度波动，把眼光放长远点，但当前的各种宏观形势下，投资者的信心很难提起来。投资都是基于标的基础业务业绩，以及对未来的预期，但所投资的标的市值规模越大，就越与经济周期契合。尤其是当它的业务已经大到全球化的时候，肯定也会受全球经济形势的影响。巴菲特之所以一直坚持跟着美国国运做投资，而美国也确实是因为从二战以来其中虽然经过几轮金融委危机波折，但总体确实还是非常强势在增长，美国的企业不仅长期享受到了本土经济和技术发展突飞猛进下的各种红利，还得益于与美元资本的全球输出，去吃到了经济全球化浪潮更大的时代红利。所以美国股市全球最强，苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、微软等万亿美元市值巨头也是吃到了全球化红利才有如此巨大增长。比如现在巴菲特的持仓市值近7成都是集中在那几个全球化巨头中：苹果的美国本土营收仅有1/3出头，全球业务已经是它的大头（欧洲占了1/4，大中华地区占了近1/5，日本及其他亚太地区为15%左右）；可口可乐的北美地区业务仅有月1/3，国际其他地区占了2/3;雪佛龙的美国本土业务占比56%，国际业务占了44%；美国运通的国际业务占比超过2成，美国银行的在国际业务也有13%的占比。这些企业，除了美国本土金融外，都是已经深深与全球经济直接祸福相依，休戚与共。在当前形势看，现在全球经济形势出现两大特点，一是在2020年疫情冲击引发的海量货币超发潮在美国率先进入加息周期后，全球经济变得更加脆弱，越来越多国家重新陷入衰退期，二是地缘政治问题频发，逆全球化愈演愈烈，对经济发展持续造成冲击。比如，近几年来，欧洲不断针对美国科技巨头各种惩罚措施，而俄乌局势之后，美国企业全面撤出俄罗斯，其中也包括苹果和可口可乐，对它们来说不仅是业务的收缩，还有在俄资产的可能亏损。在这浪潮下，这些业务遍及全球的巨头，即使还没有进入收缩阶段，也有逐渐失去相当部分全球业务增量空间，起码短期会有这种风险。而目前看来，无论是货币收缩，还是地缘政治紧张局势，在短时间内还未见到可出现转机的可能，意味着未来一段时间，全球经济依然会有非常大的压力，进而意味着这些全球巨头的未来业务业绩，还存在下行风险。苹果的最新一期财报，营收仅同比增长1.9%，净利润下滑了10.6%，除了iPhone手机业务略微增长2.8%外，Mac和IPad业务开始下滑。如今苹果的总市值已经超过了2.6万亿美元，市盈率接近30倍，这意味着其每年要维持极大规模的营收和利润才能支撑得起当前以及未来的估值水平。但目前可以看到，它的增速越来越减小和放慢，再也难呈现其在大举全球化时的迅猛。即使它还可以靠不断的产品创新，和加大其他经济落后国家的渗透去维持增长，但这样的难度确实也是越来越大。可口可乐的逻辑也差不多如此，随着全球多个股价的新式饮料崛起，越来越多的竞争对手开始熟悉新的打法，对可口可乐的市场份额会加大侵蚀。实际上，尽管可口可乐的股价在不断上涨，但其营业收入从2012年之后就开始不断下滑，近年虽然止住了跌势，但营收规模依然没有回到10年前的水平。此外，总的来看，巴菲特的投资中除了苹果外，依然还是传统经济为主，这些传统企业巨头肯定也是会受周期影响。尤其是石油，他大手笔押注雪佛龙和西方石油，之所以引起很多热议，原因是石化能源的短期与未来的格局，都难再被一致看好。2021年至今，西方石油的股价大幅上涨离不开国家油价被不断推高，尤其是俄乌战争之后，国家油价大幅增长给它带来巨额的收益。另一个大幅上涨的原因在于，西方石油在把赚到的钱对之家股份大量回购，西方石油此前发出一项30亿美元的回购计划，截至截至8月1日，其已回购了11亿美元的股票，其中约一半在7月份回购，另一半在第二季度回购。迅猛增长的业绩和大额的回购，西方石油的股价肯定跟着上涨。此外，西方石油在最近几个季度的策略是利用其充足的自由现金流来偿还债务，并且通过加大分红方式把现金花出去，而不是去加大油气项目的投资开发。这种方式短期确实对股东有极大的吸引力，但从长远看，也是对未来信心不足，不敢贸然扩产的表现。这是传统能源行业周期的必然规律，但另一个影响因素在于，全球经济下行加剧，欧佩克也有增产去应对摆脱俄罗斯能源依赖带来的冲击。但俄罗斯的出口并不会因此大量压缩，它只是转移出口对象，最终，在全球经济下行导致传统能源总需求减少而地缘政治影响导致总供应产能实际增加的畸形平衡下，未来油价下行的可能性会更大。如果未来油价下行，主营在美国本土的西方石油肯定也不能幸免影响，依然也会面临新的营收增长压力，成长性会受到很大的影响。而截至6月底，伯克希尔持有西方石油公司1.817亿股，占19.5%的股份。尽管对于此投资，巴菲特已经赢得先手，但如果一直持有，未来是否还能赢下去，其实也有很多投资者心存质疑。孰对孰错，我们也很难看清楚，其实如果伯克希尔不是有股神的名头而是一个普通的投资机构，可能投资者早就选择远离它了。结语越老的人，就往往越容易陷入经验主义，巴菲特确实是身经百战经验丰富的投资老手，但从这些年一系列的投资动作和风格上看，他确实是很老了。这种老，体现在只敢做投资自己熟知的传统领域，对新兴领域看不懂，也很难适应，所以他除了苹果之外，所持有的大多数都是传统领域，而大大错过了亚马逊、谷歌、微软、特斯拉、英伟达等超级成长公司。诚然，跟着美国经济长期稳健增长，以及长期放水带来的通胀进而带来的收益增长，守住那些传统行业的龙头确实也能实现稳健且不错的收益，但它在新兴领域所错过的机会成本代价，也确实是无比巨大的。这种代价，可以从迅速崛起的女股神木头姐身上体现出来。换句话，如果股神足够适应时代和认知清醒，去花多一点资金去配置新兴领域，那么伯克希尔哈撒韦的市值高度，将远不止于此，甚至突破万亿美元市值，也早就不在话下了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}