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- 股市战场中的_橘猫股市战场中的_橘猫
  ·2024-06-14
  $雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$ [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
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- 股市战场中的_橘猫股市战场中的_橘猫
  ·2023-04-12
  [惊讶]
  12 Blockbuster Charts from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: All Signs Point to a Recession
  美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。
  12 Blockbuster Charts from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: All Signs Point to a Recession
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- 股市战场中的_橘猫股市战场中的_橘猫
  ·2021-07-17
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- 股市战场中的_橘猫股市战场中的_橘猫
  ·2021-07-15
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  Beijing Automobile's afternoon gains narrowed to 12%.
  7月15日，北京汽车午后涨幅缩窄至12%，公司午间澄清称递交辅导材料不代表目前有回到A股上市计划。北京汽车在港交所公告，公司注意到若干有关本公司可能首次公开发行A股股票的媒体推测以及本公司股份近期价
  Beijing Automobile's afternoon gains narrowed to 12%.
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- 股市战场中的_橘猫股市战场中的_橘猫
  ·2021-07-14
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/CVX 20240621 155.0 PUT SELL 1 | CVX 20240621 160.0 PUT BUY 1\">$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$雪佛龙 VERTICAL 240621 PUT 160.0/PUT 155.0$ [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa81d9e07dec6d38ed1681d1a3461afe","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316503475871784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942478603,"gmtCreate":1681294806603,"gmtModify":1681294811888,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"股市战场中的_橘猫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78cde928c8430456bc099b568f337ad6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088423044176710","idStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942478603","repostId":"2326997706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326997706","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681288550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2326997706?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-12 16:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"12 Blockbuster Charts from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: All Signs Point to a Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326997706","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that current data such as manufacturing indices, employment, credit tightening, oil prices, and real estate all point to a recession, but investors have not paid attention to and underestimated the challenge of the upcoming recession to US stocks. A U.S. recession is looming, but investors are focusing on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, underestimating the challenge it poses to U.S. stocks.</p><p>In a recent report, a team led by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, stated that current data on manufacturing indices, employment, bank credit conditions, earnings per share, and real estate all point to a recession, but investors have not paid attention to it.</p><p>Hartnett believes investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the rate hike, rather than after the rate hike ends.</p><p>Based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades. In eight of the past 10 economic recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 20%. 1. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 46.3 in March, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction and hitting a new low since May 2020.</p><p>Bank of America notes that over the past 70 years,<strong>There were 12 instances where the ISM manufacturing index fell below 45, 11 of which resulted in a recession.</strong>(except 1967).</p><p>More importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index was 51.2, the fourth worst level since the 2008 global financial crisis.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p>2. The US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for March was 44.3, in contraction territory. Bank of America pointed out that...<strong>When the new orders index is below 45, it means that the S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) will begin to decline and the economy will enter a recession.</strong>(See 1991, 2001, 2008, 2020).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p><strong>3. Global earnings per share are expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year in the second half of 2023.</strong></p><p>According to current forecasts from Bank of America's global earnings per share growth model, earnings per share will decline by 16% year-over-year as of August this year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p><strong>4. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year US Treasury Bond yield curve is slowing, which further confirms the US economic recession.</strong></p><p>The inversion of the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has become more moderate due to expectations of an economic recession.</p><p>In the past 4 weeks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield</a>The yield on the 2-year Treasury Bond has inverted from 110 basis points to 50 basis points. When a recession begins, short-term interest rates will decline due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to shift.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p><strong>5. Opec+ production cuts did not boost oil prices, confirming the economic recession.</strong></p><p>Historically, oil prices rise and fall during recessions; OPEC+'s surprise production cuts did not cause oil prices to soar.<strong>，</strong>This is another sign of an economic recession.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p><strong>6. The weak March ISM manufacturing index will make the US labor market even more pessimistic.</strong></p><p><strong>The weak March ISM manufacturing index indicates that the U.S. labor market will weaken in the coming months; Bank of America pointed out that</strong>Historically, an ISM Manufacturing Production Index < 45 has occurred simultaneously with a decline in non-farm payrolls and a US economic recession.</p><p>Bank of America believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls grew strongly by 311,000 in February 2023, exceeding market expectations of 240,000.<strong>The last strong employment report of 2023.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p><strong>7. The decline in global house prices is further evidence of an economic recession.</strong></p><p>As interest rates soared across Europe, house prices fell by an average of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first decline since 2015. New Zealand house prices plummeted 13.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year; U.S. home prices fell for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.4% from their peak in June last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/></p><p><strong>8. The credit crunch in the United States will further weaken the labor market.</strong></p><p>Over the past few months, Bank of America has been tightening lending standards for small companies. U.S. bank lending experienced a sharp decline in late March, marking the largest two-week decline in history, as the banking crisis unfolded.</p><p>Steno Research stated that mounting evidence suggests that the banking stress triggered by SVB will indeed evolve into a recession, but not a rapid liquidity-driven one, but rather a slow one triggered by a credit crunch. The agency believes that the probability of a U.S. economic recession in the third quarter of 2023 is greater than 75%.</p><p><strong>Bank of America points out that the intensification of credit tightening is highly correlated with the labor demand of small businesses.</strong>(Small businesses in the United States create nearly two-thirds of all jobs in the country.)</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p><strong>9. European bank lending is shrinking, and a recession is coming.</strong></p><p>Eurozone bank lending has declined for three consecutive months. Bank of America pointed out that the Eurozone economy is highly dependent on bank credit, with about 85% of corporate funding obtained through bank loans. Therefore, the decline in bank lending means that a recession is approaching.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p><strong>10. The trend in the U.S. labor market signifies the beginning of a recession, and a weak labor market will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply.</strong></p><p>The number of JOLTS job openings in the United States fell below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years in February, down more than 2 million from a peak of 12 million in March 2023.</p><p><strong>Bank of America points out that this situation means: declining job vacancies in the US > weak labor market > Federal Reserve interest rate cuts</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p><strong>11. Investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Federal Reserve's last rate hike, or near the end of the Fed's rate hike.</strong></p><p>Hartnett's team suggests that investors should sell U.S. stocks when the Federal Reserve holds its last rate hike or near the end of its rate hike, rather than after the rate hike ends. The team believes this conclusion is based on experience from the 1970s and 1980s, when U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><strong>12. Stock declines and recessions</strong></p><p>Bank of America's global equity derivatives research team believes that historical economic recessions have indeed had a negative impact on stocks:</p><p>The S&P 500 currently has further downside potential. Since 1929, two-thirds of the S&P 500's declines from peak to low have occurred during U.S. economic recessions. In eight of the past 10 economic recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 20%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>12 Blockbuster Charts from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: All Signs Point to a Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n12 Blockbuster Charts from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: All Signs Point to a Recession\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-12 16:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that current data such as manufacturing indices, employment, credit tightening, oil prices, and real estate all point to a recession, but investors have not paid attention to and underestimated the challenge of the upcoming recession to US stocks. A U.S. recession is looming, but investors are focusing on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, underestimating the challenge it poses to U.S. stocks.</p><p>In a recent report, a team led by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, stated that current data on manufacturing indices, employment, bank credit conditions, earnings per share, and real estate all point to a recession, but investors have not paid attention to it.</p><p>Hartnett believes investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Fed's last rate hike or near the end of the rate hike, rather than after the rate hike ends.</p><p>Based on the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades. In eight of the past 10 economic recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 20%. 1. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 46.3 in March, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction and hitting a new low since May 2020.</p><p>Bank of America notes that over the past 70 years,<strong>There were 12 instances where the ISM manufacturing index fell below 45, 11 of which resulted in a recession.</strong>(except 1967).</p><p>More importantly, the ISM non-manufacturing index was 51.2, the fourth worst level since the 2008 global financial crisis.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p>2. The US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for March was 44.3, in contraction territory. Bank of America pointed out that...<strong>When the new orders index is below 45, it means that the S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) will begin to decline and the economy will enter a recession.</strong>(See 1991, 2001, 2008, 2020).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c847f24aeb79ddf8cd4a68590042cd27\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"404\"/></p><p><strong>3. Global earnings per share are expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year in the second half of 2023.</strong></p><p>According to current forecasts from Bank of America's global earnings per share growth model, earnings per share will decline by 16% year-over-year as of August this year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafb784838c6bb8a25d70ad4e9f5bf62\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"393\"/></p><p><strong>4. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year US Treasury Bond yield curve is slowing, which further confirms the US economic recession.</strong></p><p>The inversion of the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has become more moderate due to expectations of an economic recession.</p><p>In the past 4 weeks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield</a>The yield on the 2-year Treasury Bond has inverted from 110 basis points to 50 basis points. When a recession begins, short-term interest rates will decline due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to shift.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcca1fa40e968a3e955fdb3f0ef8beb\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p><strong>5. Opec+ production cuts did not boost oil prices, confirming the economic recession.</strong></p><p>Historically, oil prices rise and fall during recessions; OPEC+'s surprise production cuts did not cause oil prices to soar.<strong>，</strong>This is another sign of an economic recession.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52151a0d320068cc0eb3d0345b949eac\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p><strong>6. The weak March ISM manufacturing index will make the US labor market even more pessimistic.</strong></p><p><strong>The weak March ISM manufacturing index indicates that the U.S. labor market will weaken in the coming months; Bank of America pointed out that</strong>Historically, an ISM Manufacturing Production Index < 45 has occurred simultaneously with a decline in non-farm payrolls and a US economic recession.</p><p>Bank of America believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls grew strongly by 311,000 in February 2023, exceeding market expectations of 240,000.<strong>The last strong employment report of 2023.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c7688733d5737a0bf49b7e385ca8a0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p><strong>7. The decline in global house prices is further evidence of an economic recession.</strong></p><p>As interest rates soared across Europe, house prices fell by an average of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first decline since 2015. New Zealand house prices plummeted 13.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year; U.S. home prices fell for the sixth consecutive month, down 4.4% from their peak in June last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1a0ba6580f29c0ab40be5fbfc8dd4f\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"397\"/></p><p><strong>8. The credit crunch in the United States will further weaken the labor market.</strong></p><p>Over the past few months, Bank of America has been tightening lending standards for small companies. U.S. bank lending experienced a sharp decline in late March, marking the largest two-week decline in history, as the banking crisis unfolded.</p><p>Steno Research stated that mounting evidence suggests that the banking stress triggered by SVB will indeed evolve into a recession, but not a rapid liquidity-driven one, but rather a slow one triggered by a credit crunch. The agency believes that the probability of a U.S. economic recession in the third quarter of 2023 is greater than 75%.</p><p><strong>Bank of America points out that the intensification of credit tightening is highly correlated with the labor demand of small businesses.</strong>(Small businesses in the United States create nearly two-thirds of all jobs in the country.)</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f7c2467671d4257b898504422d19c\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p><strong>9. European bank lending is shrinking, and a recession is coming.</strong></p><p>Eurozone bank lending has declined for three consecutive months. Bank of America pointed out that the Eurozone economy is highly dependent on bank credit, with about 85% of corporate funding obtained through bank loans. Therefore, the decline in bank lending means that a recession is approaching.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e792b47604c9c981e9b654e1622d86\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p><strong>10. The trend in the U.S. labor market signifies the beginning of a recession, and a weak labor market will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply.</strong></p><p>The number of JOLTS job openings in the United States fell below 10 million for the first time in nearly two years in February, down more than 2 million from a peak of 12 million in March 2023.</p><p><strong>Bank of America points out that this situation means: declining job vacancies in the US > weak labor market > Federal Reserve interest rate cuts</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b218a1f134dd1090741c7aa6a3e7137\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"405\"/></p><p><strong>11. Investors should sell U.S. stocks during the Federal Reserve's last rate hike, or near the end of the Fed's rate hike.</strong></p><p>Hartnett's team suggests that investors should sell U.S. stocks when the Federal Reserve holds its last rate hike or near the end of its rate hike, rather than after the rate hike ends. The team believes this conclusion is based on experience from the 1970s and 1980s, when U.S. stocks fell within three months of the end of each rate hike cycle during those two decades.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd056ee3a5ec9d538e29f898c67557ae\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><strong>12. Stock declines and recessions</strong></p><p>Bank of America's global equity derivatives research team believes that historical economic recessions have indeed had a negative impact on stocks:</p><p>The S&P 500 currently has further downside potential. Since 1929, two-thirds of the S&P 500's declines from peak to low have occurred during U.S. economic recessions. In eight of the past 10 economic recessions, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 20%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bf5cd28459b7d644138a3e619be858\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c98541a89b0218de5ba61a7a938cf4d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686292","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326997706","content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、信贷紧缩、油价及地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视且低估了即将到来的衰退对美股的挑战。美国经济衰退正在逼近，但投资者正将注意力放在美联储降息的时机上，低估了衰退对美股的挑战。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett领导的团队在最新的一份报告中表示，当前的制造业指数、就业情况、银行信贷环境、每股收益及房地产等等数据均指向衰退，但投资者并未重视。Hartnett认为投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售：根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。1.美国3月ISM制造业指数意外降至46.3，连续五个月萎缩，创2020年5月以来新低。美银指出，在过去70年间，存在12次ISM制造业指数低于45的情况，其中有11次发生了衰退（1967年除外）。更重要的是，ISM非制造业指数为51.2，这一数字是2008年全球金融危机以来第4糟糕的水平。2. 美国3月ISM制造业新订单指数为44.3，处于收缩区间，美银指出，当新订单指数<45意味着标普500每股收益（EPS）将开始下降，经济步入衰退（参见 1991、2001、2008、2020年）。3. 预计2023年下半年全球每股收益同比下降10-15%。根据美国银行全球每股收益增长模型目前的预测，截至今年8月，每股收益将同比下降16%。4.2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度正放缓，这可以进一步确认美国经济衰退。2年/10年期美国国债收益率曲线倒挂程度因经济衰退的预期而变得平和。过去4周内美国10年期国债收益率与2年期国债收益率从此前的倒挂110个基点，变为50个基点，当经济衰退开始时，由于市场预期美联储将开始转向，短期利率会下降。5.Opec+减产并未提振油价，证实经济衰退。从历史上看，油价会在衰退期间上涨并在衰退期间下跌，OPEC+的突袭减产并未使油价飙升，这是另一个经济衰退的迹象。6. 疲软的3月ISM制造业指数将使美国劳动力市场更加悲观疲软的3月ISM制造业指数，表明美国劳动力市场将在未来几个月走弱；美银指出，从历史上看，ISM制造业采指数< 45会与非农就业人数下滑及美国经济衰退同时发生。美银认为，2023年2月美国非农就业人数强劲增长31.1万，高于24万的市场预期，2023年最后一份强劲的就业报告。7. 全球房价下跌进一步证明经济衰退。随着各国利率飙升，欧洲各国房价在2022年第四季度平均环比下降1.5％，为2015年以来首次下跌；新西兰房价今年一季度同比暴跌13.3%；美国房价连续第六个月环比下跌，较去年6月峰值累跌4.4%。8. 美国的信贷紧缩将进一步削弱劳动力市场。过去几个月，美国银行一直在收紧对小公司的贷款标准。美国银行借贷在银行业危机发酵的3月下旬出现巨额跌幅，创历史最高两周下降纪录。Steno Research表示，越来越多的证据表明，由 SVB 引发的银行业压力确实会演变成一场衰退，但不是一场迅速的流动性驱动的衰退，而是由信贷紧缩引发的缓慢衰退。该机构认为，2023 年第三季度美国经济衰退的可能性大于75%。美银指出，信贷紧缩加剧与小企业用工需求高度相关（美国小企业创造了为美国创造了近2/3的就业机会）。9. 欧洲银行贷款正在收缩，衰退正在到来。欧元区银行贷款连续3个月下降，美银指出，欧元区经济高度依赖银行信贷，约有85%的企业资金通过银行贷款获得，因此银行贷款规模下降意味着衰退逼近。10.美国劳动力市场的走势意味着衰退开始，疲软的劳动力市场将允许美联储大幅降息。美国2月JOLTS职位空缺数近两年里首次跌破1000万，从2023年3月1200万峰值下降了200万以上。美银指出，这一情况意味着：美国职位空缺下降—>劳动力市场疲软 —> 美联储降息11. 在美联储最后一次加息时，或者美联储加息接近结束时投资者应该抛售美股。Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。12. 股票的跌幅与衰退美国银行的全球股票衍生品研究团队认为，历史上的经济衰退对股票影响确实是负面的：当前标普500指数还有更多下行空间，自1929年以来，标普500从峰值到低点的下跌情况中，有三分之二发生在美国经济衰退期间。在过去10次经济衰退中，有8次标普500跌幅超过20%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.89,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179979880,"gmtCreate":1626483945540,"gmtModify":1703760889757,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"股市战场中的_橘猫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78cde928c8430456bc099b568f337ad6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088423044176710","idStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179979880","repostId":"2152668878","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147937725,"gmtCreate":1626326287167,"gmtModify":1703757947743,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"股市战场中的_橘猫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78cde928c8430456bc099b568f337ad6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088423044176710","idStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147937725","repostId":"1169072938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169072938","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626325580,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169072938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 13:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Beijing Automobile's afternoon gains narrowed to 12%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169072938","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日，北京汽车午后涨幅缩窄至12%，公司午间澄清称递交辅导材料不代表目前有回到A股上市计划。\n北京汽车在港交所公告，公司注意到若干有关本公司可能首次公开发行A股股票的媒体推测以及本公司股份近期价","content":"<p>On July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01958\">Beijing Automotive</a>The gains narrowed to 12% in the afternoon, and the company clarified at midday that submitting guidance materials did not mean there was currently a plan to return to the A-share market.</p><p>Beijing Automotive Group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it has taken note of several media speculations regarding the company's possible initial public offering of A-shares, as well as the recent increase in the price and trading volume of the company's shares. Our company speculates that the report originated from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Securities</a>Securities Co., Ltd. submitted its 23rd guidance report to the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau in June 2021. The submission of the Advisory Work Report is merely to provide the Company with options for a future A Share listing and does not represent that the Company currently has any plans to list on the A Share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d4ccef89febdfe83c46a174bdb46a0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beijing Automobile's afternoon gains narrowed to 12%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeijing Automobile's afternoon gains narrowed to 12%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 13:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01958\">Beijing Automotive</a>The gains narrowed to 12% in the afternoon, and the company clarified at midday that submitting guidance materials did not mean there was currently a plan to return to the A-share market.</p><p>Beijing Automotive Group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it has taken note of several media speculations regarding the company's possible initial public offering of A-shares, as well as the recent increase in the price and trading volume of the company's shares. Our company speculates that the report originated from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Securities</a>Securities Co., Ltd. submitted its 23rd guidance report to the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau in June 2021. The submission of the Advisory Work Report is merely to provide the Company with options for a future A Share listing and does not represent that the Company currently has any plans to list on the A Share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d4ccef89febdfe83c46a174bdb46a0e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"01958":"北京汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169072938","content_text":"7月15日，北京汽车午后涨幅缩窄至12%，公司午间澄清称递交辅导材料不代表目前有回到A股上市计划。\n北京汽车在港交所公告，公司注意到若干有关本公司可能首次公开发行A股股票的媒体推测以及本公司股份近期价格及成交量有所上升。本公司猜测有关报导来自于中信建投证券股份有限公司于2021年6月向北京证监局报送对本公司的第二十三期辅导工作报告。递交辅导工作报告仅为提供本公司在将来A股上市的选择但不代表本公司目前有计划A股上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01958":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145276774,"gmtCreate":1626227819598,"gmtModify":1703755906621,"author":{"id":"4088423044176710","authorId":"4088423044176710","name":"股市战场中的_橘猫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78cde928c8430456bc099b568f337ad6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088423044176710","idStr":"4088423044176710"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145276774","repostId":"1165039031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}