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- whoisjunhongwhoisjunhong
  ·2021-07-07
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  Short exit stampede at 1.4% drives U.S. Treasury yield slump, traders say
  LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - An unwinding of bets by some hedge funds against 10-year U.S. Treasuries,
  Short exit stampede at 1.4% drives U.S. Treasury yield slump, traders say
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  What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us
  In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi
  What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us
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They are now more than 40 bps below a January 2020 high of 1.77% hit in March.</p>\n<p>That painted a gloomy picture in the popular \"reflation\" trade on stocks that do well in a rising rates environment, and the bets against U.S. Treasuries turned sour. The change was also attributed partly to fears of another deadly COVID-19 wave.</p>\n<p>One trader at a European bank said the move was fuelled by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields below the 1.40% level as many funds had hedged some of their wider reflation bets by putting stop-loss orders at that level.</p>\n<p>Stop-loss orders are essentially trades where investors hedge their broader market trades by taking an opposite position to trim losses in case markets move against them.</p>\n<p>Another trader saw the move as technical, saying U.S. Treasury yields were a variation of the popular \"death cross\" in financial markets, where short-term moving averages (50-day) intersect with longer-term averages (100-day) pointing to lower yields.</p>\n<p>The 'long duration' quality of tech and 'growth' stocks becomes attractive again with yields under pressure. Nasdaq futures were heading towards yet another record high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"There was a spike around the 1.38-1.40 area and getting through that triggered some stops (stop losses),\" said Charles Diebel, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds.</p>\n<p>\"When it got to those levels, people who were short were feeling uncomfortable and started selling.\"</p>\n<p>Net bearish bets on 10-year Treasury futures jumped to 59,960 contracts for the week ended June 29, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.</p>\n<p>Daily turnover on the front-month 10-year U.S. Treasury futures was nearly 2 million contracts, the largest since May 26 but less than half of 2021's peak of more than 4 million in late February, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>The move rippled across the yield curve and caught broader markets by surprise, with the high-flying Australian dollar</p>\n<p>weakening sharply.</p>\n<p>Though yields were under pressure for the last few weeks, the move lower accelerated after they began July at below 1.50%.</p>\n<p>The seasonal summer lull in financial markets are also a reason for outsized moves, said <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> fund manager who declined to be named. He said the moves in U.S. debt were triggered by hedge funds, though the size of the trades were not \"massive\".</p>\n<p>Apart from positioning and technicals, the recent spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant and weak U.S. services activity data also weighed on investor sentiment, prompting them to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries.</p>\n<p>\"This is likely a shift in market narrative: away from inflation concerns to concerns about the sustainability of growth momentum, and you see that in pretty much every market,\" said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of FX strategy at Banque Lombard Odier &amp; Cie SA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short exit stampede at 1.4% drives U.S. Treasury yield slump, traders say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort exit stampede at 1.4% drives U.S. Treasury yield slump, traders say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-07 20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - An unwinding of bets by some hedge funds against 10-year U.S. Treasuries, the world's safest asset, explains the sudden ructions in bond markets, traders and fund managers told Reuters on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell below 1.40% in New York trading on Tuesday and rapidly fell to a near five-month low in early London trading of 1.33% before stabilising around 1.34%. They are now more than 40 bps below a January 2020 high of 1.77% hit in March.</p>\n<p>That painted a gloomy picture in the popular \"reflation\" trade on stocks that do well in a rising rates environment, and the bets against U.S. Treasuries turned sour. The change was also attributed partly to fears of another deadly COVID-19 wave.</p>\n<p>One trader at a European bank said the move was fuelled by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields below the 1.40% level as many funds had hedged some of their wider reflation bets by putting stop-loss orders at that level.</p>\n<p>Stop-loss orders are essentially trades where investors hedge their broader market trades by taking an opposite position to trim losses in case markets move against them.</p>\n<p>Another trader saw the move as technical, saying U.S. Treasury yields were a variation of the popular \"death cross\" in financial markets, where short-term moving averages (50-day) intersect with longer-term averages (100-day) pointing to lower yields.</p>\n<p>The 'long duration' quality of tech and 'growth' stocks becomes attractive again with yields under pressure. Nasdaq futures were heading towards yet another record high on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>\"There was a spike around the 1.38-1.40 area and getting through that triggered some stops (stop losses),\" said Charles Diebel, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds.</p>\n<p>\"When it got to those levels, people who were short were feeling uncomfortable and started selling.\"</p>\n<p>Net bearish bets on 10-year Treasury futures jumped to 59,960 contracts for the week ended June 29, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.</p>\n<p>Daily turnover on the front-month 10-year U.S. Treasury futures was nearly 2 million contracts, the largest since May 26 but less than half of 2021's peak of more than 4 million in late February, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>The move rippled across the yield curve and caught broader markets by surprise, with the high-flying Australian dollar</p>\n<p>weakening sharply.</p>\n<p>Though yields were under pressure for the last few weeks, the move lower accelerated after they began July at below 1.50%.</p>\n<p>The seasonal summer lull in financial markets are also a reason for outsized moves, said <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> fund manager who declined to be named. He said the moves in U.S. debt were triggered by hedge funds, though the size of the trades were not \"massive\".</p>\n<p>Apart from positioning and technicals, the recent spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant and weak U.S. services activity data also weighed on investor sentiment, prompting them to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries.</p>\n<p>\"This is likely a shift in market narrative: away from inflation concerns to concerns about the sustainability of growth momentum, and you see that in pretty much every market,\" said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of FX strategy at Banque Lombard Odier &amp; Cie SA.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WIW":"Western Asset/Claymore Inf-Lkd O"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149972193","content_text":"LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - An unwinding of bets by some hedge funds against 10-year U.S. Treasuries, the world's safest asset, explains the sudden ructions in bond markets, traders and fund managers told Reuters on Wednesday.\nYields on 10-year Treasuries fell below 1.40% in New York trading on Tuesday and rapidly fell to a near five-month low in early London trading of 1.33% before stabilising around 1.34%. They are now more than 40 bps below a January 2020 high of 1.77% hit in March.\nThat painted a gloomy picture in the popular \"reflation\" trade on stocks that do well in a rising rates environment, and the bets against U.S. Treasuries turned sour. The change was also attributed partly to fears of another deadly COVID-19 wave.\nOne trader at a European bank said the move was fuelled by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields below the 1.40% level as many funds had hedged some of their wider reflation bets by putting stop-loss orders at that level.\nStop-loss orders are essentially trades where investors hedge their broader market trades by taking an opposite position to trim losses in case markets move against them.\nAnother trader saw the move as technical, saying U.S. Treasury yields were a variation of the popular \"death cross\" in financial markets, where short-term moving averages (50-day) intersect with longer-term averages (100-day) pointing to lower yields.\nThe 'long duration' quality of tech and 'growth' stocks becomes attractive again with yields under pressure. Nasdaq futures were heading towards yet another record high on Wednesday.\n\"There was a spike around the 1.38-1.40 area and getting through that triggered some stops (stop losses),\" said Charles Diebel, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds.\n\"When it got to those levels, people who were short were feeling uncomfortable and started selling.\"\nNet bearish bets on 10-year Treasury futures jumped to 59,960 contracts for the week ended June 29, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.\nDaily turnover on the front-month 10-year U.S. Treasury futures was nearly 2 million contracts, the largest since May 26 but less than half of 2021's peak of more than 4 million in late February, according to Refinitiv data.\nThe move rippled across the yield curve and caught broader markets by surprise, with the high-flying Australian dollar\nweakening sharply.\nThough yields were under pressure for the last few weeks, the move lower accelerated after they began July at below 1.50%.\nThe seasonal summer lull in financial markets are also a reason for outsized moves, said one fund manager who declined to be named. He said the moves in U.S. debt were triggered by hedge funds, though the size of the trades were not \"massive\".\nApart from positioning and technicals, the recent spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant and weak U.S. services activity data also weighed on investor sentiment, prompting them to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries.\n\"This is likely a shift in market narrative: away from inflation concerns to concerns about the sustainability of growth momentum, and you see that in pretty much every market,\" said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of FX strategy at Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140257659,"gmtCreate":1625663871371,"gmtModify":1703745890462,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257659","repostId":"1156748810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140257933,"gmtCreate":1625663854722,"gmtModify":1703745890129,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140257933","repostId":"1156748810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156748810","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625663276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156748810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156748810","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That readi","content":"<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.</p>\n<p>This new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite.</p>\n<p>In fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.</p>\n<p>To illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.</p>\n<p>Notice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.</p>\n<p>There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.</p>\n<p>Other evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/447c2a37effcb204fdf220eee2b3ec25\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.</p>\n<p>So instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.</p>\n<p>All we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the stock market’s ‘black swan’ index hitting an all-time high tells us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 21:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-markets-black-swan-index-hitting-an-all-time-high-tells-us-11625642794?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1156748810","content_text":"In late June the CBOE’s SKEW Index — a.k.a the “black swan” index — hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.\nThis new high certainly seems scary. Yet I’m not convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the the U.S. stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite.\nIn fact, it’s possible that the higher SKEW index reading means just the opposite.\nTo illustrate, imagine there are two groups of investors: permabears, who more or less permanently think that stock prices are about to fall, and the mainstream consensus, which is bullish. In this hypothetical case, the SKEW Index in effect would measure the distance between these two groups’ forecasts.\nNotice, therefore, that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.\nThere is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now. Consider the Crash Confidence Index, aperiodic survey introduced in 1989 by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The latest results indicate no notable increase in the percentage of U.S. investors who believe the stock market is about to crash.\nOther evidence pointing in the same direction is the increasing bullishness among short-term stock market timers. For example, timers my firm monitors who focus on the Nasdaq in particular are, on average, more bullish now than on 94% of all trading days since 2000. (That’s according to my firm’s Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Stock Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.)\n\nIt’s also worth noting that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to fall. Assuming the permabears don’t change their forecasts, the SKEW will fall if the mainstream consensus becomes more bearish. That’s because the distance between the two groups’ forecasts — what the SKEW measures — will narrow.\nSo instead of a falling SKEW suggesting less concern about a market decline, it might instead be signaling an increased concern.\nAll we know for sure from the SKEW’s recent all-time high, in other words, is that disagreement among investors is particularly wide right now. Though we don’t know for sure, my hunch is that this extreme disagreement traces to the already-bullish mainstream consensus becoming even more bullish. Contrarians should take note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140254232,"gmtCreate":1625663826626,"gmtModify":1703745889306,"author":{"id":"4088747970325780","authorId":"4088747970325780","name":"whoisjunhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a809cc1ecd023c50b08c4901a8066a3a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088747970325780","authorIdStr":"4088747970325780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140254232","repostId":"1156748810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}