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EmeraldRose6

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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-12-17
  [Happy]
  130 Comment
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-07-21
  [smile]
  Palantir: Prepare For War
  SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a s
  Palantir: Prepare For War
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-07-19
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Alphabet's Stock Split Has Taken Effect. Now What?
  Alphabet's stock price is now much smaller, which could make it more appealing to retail investors.
  Alphabet's Stock Split Has Taken Effect. Now What?
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-25
  Still, dont be panic. Buy and keep for long term.
  Palantir: Panic Time
  SummaryPalantir guided for a sales growth deceleration in Q2 and the Street hammered its shares shor
  Palantir: Panic Time
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-22
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Palantir Gets Interesting At $5
  SummaryRecently there have been many reports of "smart money" investors buying PLTR following its dr
  Palantir Gets Interesting At $5
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-19
  Buy buy buy
  Better Buy: Palantir Technologies vs. Amazon
  Which fallen growth stock is the better turnaround play?
  Better Buy: Palantir Technologies vs. Amazon
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-18
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Palantir: Dead Cat Bounce?
  SummaryPalantir remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline.For Palantir to achieve a similar
  Palantir: Dead Cat Bounce?
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-17
  [smile]
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  184 Comment
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-16
  Dont panic. Keep buying and hold.
  Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?
  With PLTR at all-time lows, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock?Palantir shares are currently
  Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?
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- EmeraldRose6EmeraldRose6
  ·2022-05-12
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare For War","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165364438","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.</li><li>There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.</li><li>Palantir will report Q2 earnings in a few weeks, and our expectations have grown a bit more conservative, though the bottom looks in.</li><li>We anticipate a lot of debate on the results and bulls vs. bears prepare to battle.</li><li>Understanding how the current economic climate is impacting the business will be paramount.</li></ul><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a battleground stock. Over the last year returns (rather losses) have been absolutely brutal. Frankly, it has been a total disaster for longs, and shorts have succeeded. About a month ago, we hypothesized that the bottom was in. So far, we think that the bottom was recognized. The coming earnings (scheduled for August 8) will undoubtedly be a catalyst to send the stock moving in either direction on massive volumes.</p><p>To be clear, we are expecting a major move. Investors should prepare for a bull/bear war, and traders should be able to leverage the volatility in the short-term for some easy swing trade gains. That said, we still view Palantir as a long-term investment, and so long as management does not dilute shareholders into oblivion, we believe the stock will provide returns from the single-digit levels. We understand that there are still a lot of retail &#34;bag-holders&#34; out there who piled into the stock in the high teens or 20&#39;s.</p><p>The stock has more than made a round trip from its direct public offering price. We had been very bullish even in the 20s on the prospects for the company and the stock. Of course, the bear market of 2022 has had an iron grip on investors, and frankly just about every no-earnings or low-earnings tech stock has been obliterated from highs. It is not uncommon to see some of these down 60-70, even 80%. But the stock has emerged from the depths, and is quietly up 50% off lows.</p><p>Still, most investors are underwater. Traders have made money long and short. While we are traders week to week, we are also very long-term investors. And we hate to see investors lose money, and we know it can be painful. The question is, what can we expect going forward? The stock will be held back until it can reliably grow and slow down dilution. Further, in this column we look back to performance, and discuss the Q2 view that was provided by management. We also believe that the reported results may come in ahead of expectations on some areas (such as new customers and backlog), but below expectation in other areas, such as earnings per share.</p><p><b>The biggest short-term issues holding back shares</b></p><p>The stock has been beaten and then relatively pinned down due to being a high revenue growth, innovative tech stock. Palantir, and stocks of companies that are similar to it, are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages of being public. They usually lose money and fight to grow sales, then eventually work toward breakeven, positive cash flow, and eventually, EPS positive. The thing is that you really cannot value these stock on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. So, valuation woes are an issue. Even in the high single-digits the stock is expensive on most valuation measures. Prepare to hear that in the coming war between bulls and bears. It is coming. Overvalued vs. growth at a somewhat reasonable price. That will be one of the debates you see in the comment sections of articles discussing earnings.</p><p>The second issue, which has been discussed before, still remains a huge issue. Palantir has a massive dilution problem, which means consistent positive EPS gets kicked further down the road. We continue to think Palantir has a lot of potential, but this market is beyond unforgiving to those companies that do not make money or have sky high valuations. So by issuing stock based compensation, EPS gets lower and lower even if net income is positive or grows. For years, Palantir may lose money or breakeven. Of course, the theory goes that companies like this will lose money as they spend to attract customers and build their moat. They invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. And as we know, Palantir is seeing revenues grow tremendously. Stock based compensation, many would argue, is an investment to attract, acquire, and retain top talent in the tech field. There is a lot of merit to this argument. But in the first quarter of 2022, stock based compensation was still $149 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09be53dda6f898b0ed8fa77c8b310cfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>So, this makes increasing EPS all the more difficult. This is another area bears have ammunition in the war against bulls. It has merits. The larger subsequent risk could be that Palantir&#39;s growth fades some or new competitors could emerge, and income generation stalls. The added dilution could continue so long that positive EPS becomes out of reach without future buybacks. It is an issue, even though management acknowledged on the Q1 call that this is a problem.</p><p><b>Operational strengths and weaknesses: perceived or actual war is potentially profitable</b></p><p>You have all heard of the military industrial complex. Palantir has a role in it as governments pay a lot of money for defense (or offense). As we move into the 21st century data is becoming its own weapon. Knowledge is power. Decision making through algorithmic calculation is a gamechanger. Many governments (and businesses) believe the investment in data analytics to power decision-making is worth every cent. In Palantir&#39;s10-Q, it indicates it does not do business with those who seek to do harm to the U.S. or go against western democracy, but the many nations that are democratic need the data analysis. We think that government growth is a big future source of growth. For now, commercial growth has been the main driver.</p><p><b>Palantir&#39;s commercial segment strong</b></p><p>In the first quarter,performance was strong on the top line and ahead of consensus estimates. That is great. Again, this is mostly a revenue growth company that is close to breaking even consistently, with some losing and some winning quarters. Total revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $446 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. However, its profitability was lower than expected by $0.02. Now, that said, Palantir has both government and commercial segments. The commercial revenue stream continues to grow rapidly, while government contracts have grown more moderately.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b540fc9ad93f28b10c2186261e94e45d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>The company added 37 customers on the commercial side. They also have expanded commercial revenue growth significantly, with commercial revenue rising 54% in Q1. We think we see some normalization in Q2, with 30-40% revenue growth. But war is good for business. And not just for government contracts. Businesses want to know how it may impact them too. Global peace is a hidden headwind to the company in our opinion.</p><p><b>Government segment growing, but slower</b></p><p>Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. However, the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, to just 16% from last year, 3 new customers on the government side. Revenue growth is trending in the wrong direction, for now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d116d2e2c0c1c490310366eb99d8c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>While revenue per customer is up, the revenue growth has clearly decelerated. We do believe that the government segment will see increased demand as global risks increase. We are closely watching for progress on this front when Q2 is reported. We do know of a few recent contracts, including the Army&#39;s Titan program,as well as the U.S. Space Systems.</p><p><b>Palantir is slightly profitable, for now</b></p><p>Make no mistake, Palantir is seeing very positive momentum in its margins, which is important in a software company. Adjusted gross margin was 81%. Contribution margin was 57%. First quarter adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $117 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 26%, ahead of management&#39;s prior guidance of 23%. This is positive.</p><p>However the Q2 expectations are not as bullish.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654d2b5ca7394c529bb854e40ed3a6b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>The biggest concern right now is not valuation. It is not dilution. It is not the &#34;overall market.&#34; The largest issue is a slowdown in performance and the Q2 guidance suggests a slowdown. Management guided to a base case of $470 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $484 million. Now some new contracts may indeed help this revenue figure. However, in the release management noted that &#34;there is a wide range of potential upside [for this] guidance.&#34; Palantir continues to see 30% annual revenue growth through 2025. But where our concerns are here is a lower guide on margins to just 20%. Labor is becoming more expensive. The company had been hiring in Q1 and likely in Q2. Costs of operations are rising thanks to inflation like utilities. These are things many investors do not consider. But every expense matters.</p><p>The company lost $39 million in the quarter operationally, but adjusted income from operations was $117 million. The company is still free cash flow positive. Adjusted free cash flow was $30 million for the quarter. That said, the company was profitable at a $0.02 adjusted EPS bottom line figure. We are concerned that if margins come in even lighter than expected, the company will lose on EPS. Frankly, we expect $0.02-$0.03 in EPS on 20% margins, with revenue of $475-$480 million. It is difficult to pinpoint however, as revenue recognition from contracts is never straightforward.</p><p>While war is a positive catalyst in many regards, the threat of a recession could be a catalyst in either direction. On one hand, companies will want to save money. If they get a big return on investment in Palantir&#39;s software, they may up their spend here collectively. Alternatively, inflation is putting a lot of pressure on consumers, and while Palantir&#39;s technology should help businesses operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this. If tax rolls are impacted, government spending could also go either way.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>We think the Q2 results are going to move Palantir stock heavily. We love that the company operates with no debt and has nice positive free cash flow. Big data, analytics, and algorithmic decision making to improve operations can benefit both businesses and governments alike.</p><p>War seems to be a real catalyst, while recession could be either a negative or positive catalyst. The customer growth is impressive as is the revenue growth on the commercial side, but there remains a strong opportunity to start expanding revenue growth on the government side. We are closely watching margins in Q2, as they could be a driver for stock movement.</p><p>While the stock remains expensive on most valuation approaches, we also want to see a reduction in stock based compensation to limit dilution. Most importantly, understanding how the current economic climate is impact the business will be paramount.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare For War</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare For War\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.Palantir will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165364438","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.Palantir will report Q2 earnings in a few weeks, and our expectations have grown a bit more conservative, though the bottom looks in.We anticipate a lot of debate on the results and bulls vs. bears prepare to battle.Understanding how the current economic climate is impacting the business will be paramount.Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a battleground stock. Over the last year returns (rather losses) have been absolutely brutal. Frankly, it has been a total disaster for longs, and shorts have succeeded. About a month ago, we hypothesized that the bottom was in. So far, we think that the bottom was recognized. The coming earnings (scheduled for August 8) will undoubtedly be a catalyst to send the stock moving in either direction on massive volumes.To be clear, we are expecting a major move. Investors should prepare for a bull/bear war, and traders should be able to leverage the volatility in the short-term for some easy swing trade gains. That said, we still view Palantir as a long-term investment, and so long as management does not dilute shareholders into oblivion, we believe the stock will provide returns from the single-digit levels. We understand that there are still a lot of retail \"bag-holders\" out there who piled into the stock in the high teens or 20's.The stock has more than made a round trip from its direct public offering price. We had been very bullish even in the 20s on the prospects for the company and the stock. Of course, the bear market of 2022 has had an iron grip on investors, and frankly just about every no-earnings or low-earnings tech stock has been obliterated from highs. It is not uncommon to see some of these down 60-70, even 80%. But the stock has emerged from the depths, and is quietly up 50% off lows.Still, most investors are underwater. Traders have made money long and short. While we are traders week to week, we are also very long-term investors. And we hate to see investors lose money, and we know it can be painful. The question is, what can we expect going forward? The stock will be held back until it can reliably grow and slow down dilution. Further, in this column we look back to performance, and discuss the Q2 view that was provided by management. We also believe that the reported results may come in ahead of expectations on some areas (such as new customers and backlog), but below expectation in other areas, such as earnings per share.The biggest short-term issues holding back sharesThe stock has been beaten and then relatively pinned down due to being a high revenue growth, innovative tech stock. Palantir, and stocks of companies that are similar to it, are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages of being public. They usually lose money and fight to grow sales, then eventually work toward breakeven, positive cash flow, and eventually, EPS positive. The thing is that you really cannot value these stock on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. So, valuation woes are an issue. Even in the high single-digits the stock is expensive on most valuation measures. Prepare to hear that in the coming war between bulls and bears. It is coming. Overvalued vs. growth at a somewhat reasonable price. That will be one of the debates you see in the comment sections of articles discussing earnings.The second issue, which has been discussed before, still remains a huge issue. Palantir has a massive dilution problem, which means consistent positive EPS gets kicked further down the road. We continue to think Palantir has a lot of potential, but this market is beyond unforgiving to those companies that do not make money or have sky high valuations. So by issuing stock based compensation, EPS gets lower and lower even if net income is positive or grows. For years, Palantir may lose money or breakeven. Of course, the theory goes that companies like this will lose money as they spend to attract customers and build their moat. They invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. And as we know, Palantir is seeing revenues grow tremendously. Stock based compensation, many would argue, is an investment to attract, acquire, and retain top talent in the tech field. There is a lot of merit to this argument. But in the first quarter of 2022, stock based compensation was still $149 million.Palantir Q1 presentationSo, this makes increasing EPS all the more difficult. This is another area bears have ammunition in the war against bulls. It has merits. The larger subsequent risk could be that Palantir's growth fades some or new competitors could emerge, and income generation stalls. The added dilution could continue so long that positive EPS becomes out of reach without future buybacks. It is an issue, even though management acknowledged on the Q1 call that this is a problem.Operational strengths and weaknesses: perceived or actual war is potentially profitableYou have all heard of the military industrial complex. Palantir has a role in it as governments pay a lot of money for defense (or offense). As we move into the 21st century data is becoming its own weapon. Knowledge is power. Decision making through algorithmic calculation is a gamechanger. Many governments (and businesses) believe the investment in data analytics to power decision-making is worth every cent. In Palantir's10-Q, it indicates it does not do business with those who seek to do harm to the U.S. or go against western democracy, but the many nations that are democratic need the data analysis. We think that government growth is a big future source of growth. For now, commercial growth has been the main driver.Palantir's commercial segment strongIn the first quarter,performance was strong on the top line and ahead of consensus estimates. That is great. Again, this is mostly a revenue growth company that is close to breaking even consistently, with some losing and some winning quarters. Total revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $446 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. However, its profitability was lower than expected by $0.02. Now, that said, Palantir has both government and commercial segments. The commercial revenue stream continues to grow rapidly, while government contracts have grown more moderately.Palantir Q1 presentationThe company added 37 customers on the commercial side. They also have expanded commercial revenue growth significantly, with commercial revenue rising 54% in Q1. We think we see some normalization in Q2, with 30-40% revenue growth. But war is good for business. And not just for government contracts. Businesses want to know how it may impact them too. Global peace is a hidden headwind to the company in our opinion.Government segment growing, but slowerPalantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. However, the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, to just 16% from last year, 3 new customers on the government side. Revenue growth is trending in the wrong direction, for now.Palantir Q1 presentationWhile revenue per customer is up, the revenue growth has clearly decelerated. We do believe that the government segment will see increased demand as global risks increase. We are closely watching for progress on this front when Q2 is reported. We do know of a few recent contracts, including the Army's Titan program,as well as the U.S. Space Systems.Palantir is slightly profitable, for nowMake no mistake, Palantir is seeing very positive momentum in its margins, which is important in a software company. Adjusted gross margin was 81%. Contribution margin was 57%. First quarter adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $117 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 26%, ahead of management's prior guidance of 23%. This is positive.However the Q2 expectations are not as bullish.Palantir Q1 presentationThe biggest concern right now is not valuation. It is not dilution. It is not the \"overall market.\" The largest issue is a slowdown in performance and the Q2 guidance suggests a slowdown. Management guided to a base case of $470 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $484 million. Now some new contracts may indeed help this revenue figure. However, in the release management noted that \"there is a wide range of potential upside [for this] guidance.\" Palantir continues to see 30% annual revenue growth through 2025. But where our concerns are here is a lower guide on margins to just 20%. Labor is becoming more expensive. The company had been hiring in Q1 and likely in Q2. Costs of operations are rising thanks to inflation like utilities. These are things many investors do not consider. But every expense matters.The company lost $39 million in the quarter operationally, but adjusted income from operations was $117 million. The company is still free cash flow positive. Adjusted free cash flow was $30 million for the quarter. That said, the company was profitable at a $0.02 adjusted EPS bottom line figure. We are concerned that if margins come in even lighter than expected, the company will lose on EPS. Frankly, we expect $0.02-$0.03 in EPS on 20% margins, with revenue of $475-$480 million. It is difficult to pinpoint however, as revenue recognition from contracts is never straightforward.While war is a positive catalyst in many regards, the threat of a recession could be a catalyst in either direction. On one hand, companies will want to save money. If they get a big return on investment in Palantir's software, they may up their spend here collectively. Alternatively, inflation is putting a lot of pressure on consumers, and while Palantir's technology should help businesses operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this. If tax rolls are impacted, government spending could also go either way.Final thoughtsWe think the Q2 results are going to move Palantir stock heavily. We love that the company operates with no debt and has nice positive free cash flow. Big data, analytics, and algorithmic decision making to improve operations can benefit both businesses and governments alike.War seems to be a real catalyst, while recession could be either a negative or positive catalyst. The customer growth is impressive as is the revenue growth on the commercial side, but there remains a strong opportunity to start expanding revenue growth on the government side. We are closely watching margins in Q2, as they could be a driver for stock movement.While the stock remains expensive on most valuation approaches, we also want to see a reduction in stock based compensation to limit dilution. Most importantly, understanding how the current economic climate is impact the business will be paramount.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075505144,"gmtCreate":1658217279388,"gmtModify":1676536123636,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075505144","repostId":"2252237196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2252237196","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658213489,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252237196?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-19 14:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet's Stock Split Has Taken Effect. Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252237196","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Alphabet's stock price is now much smaller, which could make it more appealing to retail investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Alphabet&#39;s stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of Monday&#39;s trading.</li><li>The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings are calculated.</li><li>Alphabet is an incredibly strong company and is a great value right now.</li></ul><p>Earlier this year, Google parent company <b>Alphabet</b> announced plans to conduct a 20-for-1 stock split. It officially took effect at the market close on Friday, and Monday is the first day of trading with its new, shrunken share price.</p><p>When a company creates a lot of value over the long term, its share price typically generates high returns. In Alphabet&#39;s case, its stock had risen to $2,235.55, which made it a little expensive for investors who were only investing small amounts of money.</p><h2>What Alphabet&#39;s stock split is, and what it isn&#39;t</h2><p>When a stock split occurs, the number of shares in circulation for a given company gets adjusted, which in turn changes its stock price. In Alphabet&#39;s case, its 20-for-1 split means each existing investor will now have 20 shares for each one they previously owned, which has shrunk the price of each share down from $2,235.55 to $111.77. The dollar value of their position stays exactly the same.</p><p>This is a more enticing proposition for smaller investors because they no longer need to fork out thousands of dollars to buy a single share of Alphabet.</p><p>The stock split is entirely cosmetic and has no impact on the intrinsic value of the company, but it does require a small change to the way Alphabet&#39;s earnings per share is calculated. Since there are now 20 times more Alphabet shares in circulation, all of the company&#39;s past earnings per share numbers need to be divided by 20 to accommodate.</p><p>For example, Alphabet has generated $74.5 billion in net income (profit) over the last four quarters, which translated to $110.56 in earnings per share before the split. But now that figure needs to be divided by 20, so it becomes $5.53 in earnings per share. This only relates to Alphabet&#39;s past earnings results; in future reports, the company will make the adjustment.</p><h2>Buy the company, not the stock split</h2><p>Stock splits have captured headlines throughout 2022, not just in relation to Alphabet, but also a handful of other big-tech companies. However, investors should always remember that a company&#39;s fundamentals are the only thing that can create value and drive a stock price higher in the long run.</p><p>Alphabet is one of the most solid tech organizations in the world mainly thanks to Google, its flagship brand. Google has a 91% market share in the internet search industry, which makes it very difficult to disrupt -- and many competitors have tried, including <b>Microsoft</b>, yet that company&#39;s Bing search engine has only mustered a 3% global share.</p><p>Google Search has accounted for 58% of Alphabet&#39;s $270.3 billion in total revenue over the last four quarters, so it&#39;s also the financial engine of the company. But Alphabet has grown to become incredibly diverse, so it receives notable contributions from its other business units, too. The company has a growing hardware segment which produces the Pixel smartphone, the Pixel Buds headphones, and the Nest line of home devices -- to name just a few products.</p><p>Alphabet also owns the world-leading YouTube video platform, which has generated $29.7 billion in ad revenue over the past year and boasts about 2 billion monthly active users. Considering Google bought YouTube for just $1.65 billion in 2006, it&#39;s safe to say the bet has paid off. Its best results might still be ahead as its YouTube Shorts format is proving a worthy competitor to <b>ByteDance</b>&#39;s TikTok, already matching it for users despite launching just two years ago.</p><h2>Alphabet stock is a great value</h2><p>The stock market is having a rough year, but the technology sector is particularly weak. The <b>Nasdaq-100</b> tech index is down 26.5% year to date, which places it firmly in a bear market. As a result, Alphabet stock has lost about 21% from its all-time high -- and that might be a dip worth buying.</p><p>Investors are concerned about high inflation and rising interest rates, which could dampen consumer spending and slow the economy down. Since the bulk of Alphabet&#39;s business relies on advertising revenue, it could feel the pinch if these conditions persist or grow worse. But there might be some good news on the horizon because these pressures are now showing early signs of easing.</p><p>With $5.53 in earnings per share over the last four quarters and a current share price of $111.77, Alphabet trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.2. That&#39;s 18% cheaper than the Nasdaq-100 index, which sits at a multiple of 24.7 right now; given the diversity of Alphabet&#39;s business, that spells opportunity.</p><p>The company has a track record of success and remains a leader in innovation. It&#39;s a great stock to own now and even more so if the economy rebounds, and thanks to the stock split, smaller investors now have a chance to get involved.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet's Stock Split Has Taken Effect. Now What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet's Stock Split Has Taken Effect. Now What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-19 14:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/18/alphabets-stock-split-has-taken-effect-now-what/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSAlphabet's stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of Monday's trading.The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/18/alphabets-stock-split-has-taken-effect-now-what/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/18/alphabets-stock-split-has-taken-effect-now-what/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2252237196","content_text":"KEY POINTSAlphabet's stock split reduced its price per share from $2,235.55 to $111.77 at the start of Monday's trading.The split adds no real value to the company, but it does change the way earnings are calculated.Alphabet is an incredibly strong company and is a great value right now.Earlier this year, Google parent company Alphabet announced plans to conduct a 20-for-1 stock split. It officially took effect at the market close on Friday, and Monday is the first day of trading with its new, shrunken share price.When a company creates a lot of value over the long term, its share price typically generates high returns. In Alphabet's case, its stock had risen to $2,235.55, which made it a little expensive for investors who were only investing small amounts of money.What Alphabet's stock split is, and what it isn'tWhen a stock split occurs, the number of shares in circulation for a given company gets adjusted, which in turn changes its stock price. In Alphabet's case, its 20-for-1 split means each existing investor will now have 20 shares for each one they previously owned, which has shrunk the price of each share down from $2,235.55 to $111.77. The dollar value of their position stays exactly the same.This is a more enticing proposition for smaller investors because they no longer need to fork out thousands of dollars to buy a single share of Alphabet.The stock split is entirely cosmetic and has no impact on the intrinsic value of the company, but it does require a small change to the way Alphabet's earnings per share is calculated. Since there are now 20 times more Alphabet shares in circulation, all of the company's past earnings per share numbers need to be divided by 20 to accommodate.For example, Alphabet has generated $74.5 billion in net income (profit) over the last four quarters, which translated to $110.56 in earnings per share before the split. But now that figure needs to be divided by 20, so it becomes $5.53 in earnings per share. This only relates to Alphabet's past earnings results; in future reports, the company will make the adjustment.Buy the company, not the stock splitStock splits have captured headlines throughout 2022, not just in relation to Alphabet, but also a handful of other big-tech companies. However, investors should always remember that a company's fundamentals are the only thing that can create value and drive a stock price higher in the long run.Alphabet is one of the most solid tech organizations in the world mainly thanks to Google, its flagship brand. Google has a 91% market share in the internet search industry, which makes it very difficult to disrupt -- and many competitors have tried, including Microsoft, yet that company's Bing search engine has only mustered a 3% global share.Google Search has accounted for 58% of Alphabet's $270.3 billion in total revenue over the last four quarters, so it's also the financial engine of the company. But Alphabet has grown to become incredibly diverse, so it receives notable contributions from its other business units, too. The company has a growing hardware segment which produces the Pixel smartphone, the Pixel Buds headphones, and the Nest line of home devices -- to name just a few products.Alphabet also owns the world-leading YouTube video platform, which has generated $29.7 billion in ad revenue over the past year and boasts about 2 billion monthly active users. Considering Google bought YouTube for just $1.65 billion in 2006, it's safe to say the bet has paid off. Its best results might still be ahead as its YouTube Shorts format is proving a worthy competitor to ByteDance's TikTok, already matching it for users despite launching just two years ago.Alphabet stock is a great valueThe stock market is having a rough year, but the technology sector is particularly weak. The Nasdaq-100 tech index is down 26.5% year to date, which places it firmly in a bear market. As a result, Alphabet stock has lost about 21% from its all-time high -- and that might be a dip worth buying.Investors are concerned about high inflation and rising interest rates, which could dampen consumer spending and slow the economy down. Since the bulk of Alphabet's business relies on advertising revenue, it could feel the pinch if these conditions persist or grow worse. But there might be some good news on the horizon because these pressures are now showing early signs of easing.With $5.53 in earnings per share over the last four quarters and a current share price of $111.77, Alphabet trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.2. That's 18% cheaper than the Nasdaq-100 index, which sits at a multiple of 24.7 right now; given the diversity of Alphabet's business, that spells opportunity.The company has a track record of success and remains a leader in innovation. It's a great stock to own now and even more so if the economy rebounds, and thanks to the stock split, smaller investors now have a chance to get involved.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022188101,"gmtCreate":1653490933503,"gmtModify":1676535291557,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still, dont be panic. Buy and keep for long term.","listText":"Still, dont be panic. Buy and keep for long term.","text":"Still, dont be panic. Buy and keep for long term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022188101","repostId":"1154073268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154073268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653484007,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154073268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 21:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Panic Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154073268","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir guided for a sales growth deceleration in Q2 and the Street hammered its shares shor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir guided for a sales growth deceleration in Q2 and the Street hammered its shares shortly after.</li><li>However, its prospects aren&#39;t all that bad. In fact, green shoots in its growth story are starting to show up.</li><li>The recent crash in Palantir&#39;s shares, makes it a buying opportunity.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c58fa9a9fea9040328236b6e760355\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>It&#39;s hard to think of a more controversial stock than Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). It has reported strong operational and financial results for several quarters straight, but its shares are down over 60% over the last yearnonetheless. To be fair, the Street chastised the stock over concerns regarding its growth momentum, but things aren&#39;t all that bad. In this article, I&#39;ll attempt to have a balanced discussion over why Palantir makes for a good buying opportunity on dips, in spite of the floating concerns. Let&#39;s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><b>The Growth Trajectory</b></p><p>Let me start by saying that the market isn&#39;t entirely wrong by selling off Palantir. Its management had previously assured investors of their growth being at breakneck rates but they later tempered revenue growth forecasts to 30%-plus rates. Fast forward to May 2022, they&#39;re now guiding Q2 revenue to grow just 25% year over year due to the challenging macroeconomic environment. They reported flat government revenue on a sequential basis, which fuels speculation that Palantir may have hit its growth saturation point.</p><p>Under normal circumstances, 20%-plus growth rates are deemed healthy and not worth chiding a company&#39;s management over. But Palantir&#39;s lowering of their growth guidance, time and again, seems like its top brass is just moving the goal post without actually delivering on its targets. It casts doubt on the company&#39;s long-term growth story and makes one wonder about how many more such downward revisions would be there in its future quarters.</p><p>So, I empathize with investors who&#39;re questioning Palantir&#39;s management, the company&#39;s growth prospects and rethinking their investment thesis in the name. However, there are a couple of key takeaways from its Q2 earnings report, that nobody seems to be paying attention.</p><p>For starters, the slowdown in its government revenue was expected. There were preliminary signs of its impending government revenue slowdown, about which I warned my readers in an earnings preview article published back in April (Read - Palantir: Brace For Impact). The company reported $241.8 million in government revenue in Q1 which is eerily close to my forecast of $243.4 million. From my prior article:</p><blockquote>I expect Palantir&#39;s government revenue to grow marginally on a sequential basis this time around. See, Palantir hasn&#39;t won any major contracts from the federal government during Q1 -- its new orders have actually shrunk in the said time frame. The company, also, hasn&#39;t announced any major order wins that would trump this decline. This suggests that Palantir&#39;s government segment will be revenue challenged in Q1.</blockquote><p>Having said that, Palantir&#39;s commercial segment performed rather well. Its revenue amounted to $204.5 million, which was up 136% year over year and up 5.2% sequentially. Contrary to what the bears may suggest, I believe this segment will become the leading growth catalyst for Palantir in coming quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db8ff900a490ad54ab870a3dbc14a69\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BusinessQuant.com</span></p><p>I say this because Palantir has been adding commercial customers at a rapid rate. It added 37 new commercial customers during Q1, which expanded its customer base by as much as 25% within a span of just one quarter. Bear in mind that Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue grew at just 5.2% over the said time frame. It&#39;s this disparity in revenue and customer growth rates, that offers a growth opportunity for investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf49e8573de71e8733ff481c7b73761\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BusinessQuant.com</span></p><p>We must understand that these new customers won&#39;t outrightly replace their existing systems in place. They&#39;d naturally want to test out Palantir&#39;s platform in the beginning, explore its functionality, understand its integrations with their prevalent data set and train their personnel along the way. It&#39;s only after a few quarters of extensive use, that commercial enterprises would want to ramp spending on the new workflow that Palantir&#39;s platforms bring along.</p><p>Secondly, as more and more commercial enterprises start to use Palantir&#39;s platforms in their workflows and develop trust on the brand, the word of mouth will spread and Palantir is likely to win more customers along the way. In essence, I expect the successful commercial deployments to have a snowball effect for Palantir, at least in terms of customer wins.</p><p>Third, unlike the government sector where there&#39;s a limited number of agencies, lots of bureaucratic hurdles and geopolitics at play, the commercial sector is fragmented and usually doesn&#39;t involve such limitations. This essentially means that Palantir can continue expanding its customer base forward as well, without hitting a saturation point anytime soon. As a reminder, the company had just 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1.</p><p>So, overall, I consider Palantir&#39;s rapid commercial customer adds to be a leading indicator for an impending commercial revenue growth explosion in coming quarters.</p><p><b>Deflating Stock Compensation</b></p><p>Next, Palantir has been infamous for its high stock-based compensation in prior quarters. Concerned investors, bears and bag holders saw this as management&#39;s way to reward themselves for poor performance. However, the company has, once again, made steady progress on this front.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be9a525cf8b91905c59b4294f66e355\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BusinessQuant.com</span></p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock-based compensation expenses declined to $149.3 million during Q1, hovering close to its all-time low. Also, note in the chart above that the figure has steadily declined over the past year and a half. But that&#39;s not all. Per our database at Business Quant, Palantir&#39;s stock compensation expenses are more or less in line with many other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfb60b913c4f6ac175eeb9de5efc36fe\" tg-width=\"424\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BusinessQuant.com</span></p><p>As Palantir&#39;s shares are down 60% over the past year, employee compensation in the form of stock options will become less lucrative. Its employees will suddenly feel that their pay packages are inadequate. So, to address this issue and to retain key talent, I believe Palantir will significantly cut down on its stock awards and its dilutive effects, and resort to cash-based compensation at least until its shares remain distressed.</p><p>So, this is another area where Palantir has shown steady improvement and it&#39;s likely to continue doing so in the foreseeable future as well.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s price action has caught many off guard, including yours truly, but the stock seems to be attractively valued after its recent crash. It&#39;s trading at 10-times its trailing twelve-month sales, which is considerably lower than many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dba7ec35cbb3ccc0d08d25b05b40cb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BusinessQuant.com</span></p><p>Besides, green shoots are starting to appear in Palantir&#39;s growth story, with its declining stock compensation expenses, rapid customer adds and a potential sales acceleration. So, readers and investors may want to accumulate Palantir&#39;s shares on price corrections as this panic time makes it a good buying opportunity. Good Luck!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Panic Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Panic Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-25 21:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514017-palantir-panic-time><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir guided for a sales growth deceleration in Q2 and the Street hammered its shares shortly after.However, its prospects aren't all that bad. In fact, green shoots in its growth story are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514017-palantir-panic-time\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514017-palantir-panic-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1154073268","content_text":"SummaryPalantir guided for a sales growth deceleration in Q2 and the Street hammered its shares shortly after.However, its prospects aren't all that bad. In fact, green shoots in its growth story are starting to show up.The recent crash in Palantir's shares, makes it a buying opportunity.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIt's hard to think of a more controversial stock than Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). It has reported strong operational and financial results for several quarters straight, but its shares are down over 60% over the last yearnonetheless. To be fair, the Street chastised the stock over concerns regarding its growth momentum, but things aren't all that bad. In this article, I'll attempt to have a balanced discussion over why Palantir makes for a good buying opportunity on dips, in spite of the floating concerns. Let's take a closer look at it all.The Growth TrajectoryLet me start by saying that the market isn't entirely wrong by selling off Palantir. Its management had previously assured investors of their growth being at breakneck rates but they later tempered revenue growth forecasts to 30%-plus rates. Fast forward to May 2022, they're now guiding Q2 revenue to grow just 25% year over year due to the challenging macroeconomic environment. They reported flat government revenue on a sequential basis, which fuels speculation that Palantir may have hit its growth saturation point.Under normal circumstances, 20%-plus growth rates are deemed healthy and not worth chiding a company's management over. But Palantir's lowering of their growth guidance, time and again, seems like its top brass is just moving the goal post without actually delivering on its targets. It casts doubt on the company's long-term growth story and makes one wonder about how many more such downward revisions would be there in its future quarters.So, I empathize with investors who're questioning Palantir's management, the company's growth prospects and rethinking their investment thesis in the name. However, there are a couple of key takeaways from its Q2 earnings report, that nobody seems to be paying attention.For starters, the slowdown in its government revenue was expected. There were preliminary signs of its impending government revenue slowdown, about which I warned my readers in an earnings preview article published back in April (Read - Palantir: Brace For Impact). The company reported $241.8 million in government revenue in Q1 which is eerily close to my forecast of $243.4 million. From my prior article:I expect Palantir's government revenue to grow marginally on a sequential basis this time around. See, Palantir hasn't won any major contracts from the federal government during Q1 -- its new orders have actually shrunk in the said time frame. The company, also, hasn't announced any major order wins that would trump this decline. This suggests that Palantir's government segment will be revenue challenged in Q1.Having said that, Palantir's commercial segment performed rather well. Its revenue amounted to $204.5 million, which was up 136% year over year and up 5.2% sequentially. Contrary to what the bears may suggest, I believe this segment will become the leading growth catalyst for Palantir in coming quarters.BusinessQuant.comI say this because Palantir has been adding commercial customers at a rapid rate. It added 37 new commercial customers during Q1, which expanded its customer base by as much as 25% within a span of just one quarter. Bear in mind that Palantir's commercial revenue grew at just 5.2% over the said time frame. It's this disparity in revenue and customer growth rates, that offers a growth opportunity for investors.BusinessQuant.comWe must understand that these new customers won't outrightly replace their existing systems in place. They'd naturally want to test out Palantir's platform in the beginning, explore its functionality, understand its integrations with their prevalent data set and train their personnel along the way. It's only after a few quarters of extensive use, that commercial enterprises would want to ramp spending on the new workflow that Palantir's platforms bring along.Secondly, as more and more commercial enterprises start to use Palantir's platforms in their workflows and develop trust on the brand, the word of mouth will spread and Palantir is likely to win more customers along the way. In essence, I expect the successful commercial deployments to have a snowball effect for Palantir, at least in terms of customer wins.Third, unlike the government sector where there's a limited number of agencies, lots of bureaucratic hurdles and geopolitics at play, the commercial sector is fragmented and usually doesn't involve such limitations. This essentially means that Palantir can continue expanding its customer base forward as well, without hitting a saturation point anytime soon. As a reminder, the company had just 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1.So, overall, I consider Palantir's rapid commercial customer adds to be a leading indicator for an impending commercial revenue growth explosion in coming quarters.Deflating Stock CompensationNext, Palantir has been infamous for its high stock-based compensation in prior quarters. Concerned investors, bears and bag holders saw this as management's way to reward themselves for poor performance. However, the company has, once again, made steady progress on this front.BusinessQuant.comPalantir's stock-based compensation expenses declined to $149.3 million during Q1, hovering close to its all-time low. Also, note in the chart above that the figure has steadily declined over the past year and a half. But that's not all. Per our database at Business Quant, Palantir's stock compensation expenses are more or less in line with many other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.BusinessQuant.comAs Palantir's shares are down 60% over the past year, employee compensation in the form of stock options will become less lucrative. Its employees will suddenly feel that their pay packages are inadequate. So, to address this issue and to retain key talent, I believe Palantir will significantly cut down on its stock awards and its dilutive effects, and resort to cash-based compensation at least until its shares remain distressed.So, this is another area where Palantir has shown steady improvement and it's likely to continue doing so in the foreseeable future as well.Final ThoughtsPalantir's price action has caught many off guard, including yours truly, but the stock seems to be attractively valued after its recent crash. It's trading at 10-times its trailing twelve-month sales, which is considerably lower than many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.BusinessQuant.comBesides, green shoots are starting to appear in Palantir's growth story, with its declining stock compensation expenses, rapid customer adds and a potential sales acceleration. So, readers and investors may want to accumulate Palantir's shares on price corrections as this panic time makes it a good buying opportunity. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028663099,"gmtCreate":1653216578311,"gmtModify":1676535241482,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028663099","repostId":"2237089312","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237089312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653201031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237089312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-22 14:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Gets Interesting At $5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237089312","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its dr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Recently there have been many reports of &#34;smart money&#34; investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.</li><li>It&#39;s true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent quarter showed major deceleration.</li><li>The stock remains fairly expensive.</li><li>In this article, I rate Palantir a &#34;hold&#34; (neutral) and explain why I&#39;d switch that rating to &#34;buy&#34; at $5.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cbdef35ea2b08c8aeb69a0d8ba11ec\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><b>Palantir</b> (NYSE:PLTR) stock has been on a wild ride these last 12 months. It peaked close to $29 last year and is now at approximately $8. The stock had been sliding before this month’s earnings release. The release was a miss but, surprisingly, the stock rose in the weeks after it came out. After dipping 2.28% on the day of the release, PLTR recovered, rising 10.8% by Friday’s close.</p><p><b>Why did PLTR rise despite missing on earnings?</b></p><p>It might have had something to do with management’s statements. In the earnings call that took place after Palantir’s earnings release came out, CEO Alex Karp hit on all the right notes. Among other things, he said:</p><ul><li><p>Palantir is only doing $9 million worth of stock-based compensation this year.</p></li><li><p>The average Foundry customer spent $6.5 million on the service last year.</p></li><li><p>He has 100% of his own money invested in Palantir.</p></li></ul><p>These comments may have eased investors’ nerves. The last one, in particular, showed that Karp was 100% invested in his own company, indicating high conviction from an important insider.</p><p>Nevertheless, PLTR’s Q1 release provided some real causes for concern. It featured the company’s slowest revenue growth in years, as well as a GAAP net loss. 16% growth in government revenue was particularly concerning, as that segment has always been considered Palantir’s bread and butter. Given all of these concerns, I would hold off on buying PLTR stock for now. I do, however, think that there is a price at which the stock becomes interesting, and I will spend the remainder of this article explaining why $5 is that price.</p><p><b>Palantir’s Competitive Position</b></p><p>One of the reasons why Palantir has a non-zero value, despite its endless losses, is because of its competitive position. PLTR locks in government contracts with long lifespans, and it faces little competition in its niche. So, it has a significant amount of recurring revenue.</p><p>Many online services have attempted to come up with lists of Palantir competitors but most are not true “head to head” competitors. For example, Craft.co has a list of Palantir’s competitors, featuring some questionable inclusions. It lists:</p><ul><li><p>Tableau, a data visualization suite that does not include many of the features of Foundry and Gotham.</p></li><li><p><b>Cognizant</b> (CTSH) - an IT consulting company.</p></li></ul><p>These companies do offer data analytics, which makes them superficially similar to Palantir. However, they don’t offer comprehensive data platforms aimed mainly at Federal Government agencies, so they aren’t head-to-head competitors. However, a few possible contenders for “true competitors” stand out:</p><ul><li><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></b> (IBM) - has numerous data platforms going after clients in the financial services sector, one of Palantir’s big client bases.</p></li><li><p><b>Tyler Technologies</b> (TYL) - a data service works with government clients.</p></li><li><p><b>Alteryx</b> (AYX) - a data platform that mostly works with private sector clients but does list some government clients on its case study page.</p></li></ul><p>The above are probably Palantir’s closest competitors. They resemble PLTR in some respects. However, they do not have Palantir’s specific expertise in managing data for intelligence and military operations. So, Palantir is uncontested in that sub-niche.</p><p>It’s a bit of a different story in the commercial part of Palantir’s business. In that space, PLTR faces dozens of competitors, and only has a 2.4% market share. Businesses that want general purpose data analytics have many options to choose from, so Palantir will have a harder time standing out in the commercial space.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>As I showed in the previous section, Palantir enjoys an admirable competitive position in providing data analytics for Military and Intelligence agencies. Its overall position in big data and machine learning is not mind blowing, but it at least has one niche locked down. This fact means that Palantir’s stock is not at risk of going to zero. Government revenue is extremely stable, as it’s backed by taxing authority, and Palantir’s government contracts last 3.5 years on average.</p><p>So, without a doubt, Palantir stock is worth some positive amount of money based on its fundamentals. As for how much it’s worth, we need to look at the stock’s valuation. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, PLTR trades at:</p><ul><li><p>67 times adjusted earnings.</p></li><li><p>9.7 times sales.</p></li><li><p>7 times book value.</p></li><li><p>65 times operating cash flow.</p></li></ul><p>These are frankly extremely high multiples these days. In 2021, at the height of the post-COVID bubble, numbers like these weren’t unheard-of. But this year, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and investors are taking a long, hard look at expensive companies. If you look at the stocks that have suffered notable 50%+ declines this year, it’s practically a who’s who of last year’s expensive tech stocks:</p><ul><li><p><b>Tesla</b> (TSLA).</p></li><li><p><b>Shopify</b> (SHOP).</p></li><li><p><b>Netflix</b> (NFLX).</p></li><li><p><b>Peloton</b> (PTON).</p></li></ul><p>PLTR, like these stocks, has gone down in price. However, its multiples remain high. Enough so that we might wonder whether it has further to fall. Additionally, PLTR’s revenue growth decelerated significantly in its most recent quarter–though it remained fairly high at 31%.</p><p>So there’s some basis here for thinking that PLTR has further to fall. To gauge how much further it has to fall, we need to do a discounted cash flow analysis. According to its cash flow statements, PLTR had $0.11 in free cash flow per share in the trailing 12 month period. There is no historical pattern in cash flows we can ascertain because free cash flow only became positive last year. However, we know that Palantir’s revenue is growing at 31%. If FCF grows in proportion to revenue, then the next five year’s cash flows will be:</p><ul><li><p>Base year: $0.11</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $0.144</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $0.188</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $0.25</p></li><li><p>Year 4: $0.323</p></li><li><p>Year 5: $0.424</p></li></ul><p>According to Finbox, Palantir’s weighted average cost of capital is 8.62%. If we use that as the discount rate, then five years’ cash flows can be discounted as shown below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa3518f38fdfa46b5a3456f1e7422d4\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see, the five years’ cash flows have approximately $1 in present value.</p><p>Next, we need a terminal value. If we assume growth tapers off to 0% after five years, then our final year’s cash flow is 0.424. The discount rate minus the growth rate is 3.62%. So we get a terminal value of $4.91. That plus the five year’s cash flows gives us a fair value of $5.91.</p><p>Now, I’ve been pretty conservative here by estimating sustainable growth at 0%. If you use 5% instead of 0% then you get to a fair value of $13.58. Potentially, Palantir could grow faster and longer than that. But when making estimates, it pays to be conservative. So, $5.91 is a “safe” estimate of fair value.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>As we’ve seen, Palantir stock would be a pretty safe bet at $5. If it kept up its growth, it could even be worth as much as $13.58. If the stock dips much further then, an investor probably would do well buying it. However, we aren’t quite done. Before endorsing any thesis on a stock, we need to consider the risks to shareholders, and the challenges to the thesis. In Palantir’s case, there are a good few of these. A few of the most notable are:</p><ul><li><p><b>Deceleration.</b> My basic PLTR model yielded $5.91 in present value with a sustainable growth rate of 0%, and $13.58 with a sustainable growth rate of 5%. Neither of these growth rates are over the top. The assumption of 0% growth after five years is rather conservative. However, I nevertheless assumed that PLTR’s FCF growth can stay at 31% for five full years before the deceleration kicks in. Should deceleration kick in before five years, then the fair value will end up being lower than what I’ve estimated here.</p></li><li><p><b>Stock based compensation.</b> One factor arguing that Palantir isn’t just another overhyped growth stock is its positive FCF. The company is certainly turning a “profit” in cash flow terms. However, one of the ways Palantir keeps its cash flows high is through stock based compensation. It pays its employees in heavy amounts of stock, which keeps cash costs low as it results in lower salary expense. As a result of paying out so much stock, PLTR’s share count doubled in the year following its IPO. The more shares hit the float, the less each investor’s percentage claim on earnings, and the more potential selling pressure there is. So, continued dilution via SBC is a major risk factor for PLTR stock.</p></li><li><p><b>Loss of major contracts.</b> Although Palantir’s long contract duration ensures revenue stability in the medium term, it may not be as reliable in the long term. Governments can and do cancel relationships with contractors. Sometimes, they do so for political reasons. For example, in 2021, Palantir lost a contract with a UK Health Authority due to data privacy concerns. For now, it doesn’t look like PLTR is at risk of having this happen with any U.S. clients. But it’s always a possibility, and it could cost shareholders real money.</p></li></ul><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>The bottom line on Palantir is that it’s a real, cash flow positive company whose stock is unfortunately a bit overvalued right now. There is no question that Palantir is growing and maybe even profitable by some metrics. But its growth isn’t quite fast enough to justify its current stock price. It would take $5.91 or lower for PLTR to become interesting.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Gets Interesting At $5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Gets Interesting At $5\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-22 14:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.It's true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237089312","content_text":"SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.It's true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent quarter showed major deceleration.The stock remains fairly expensive.In this article, I rate Palantir a \"hold\" (neutral) and explain why I'd switch that rating to \"buy\" at $5.Andreas Rentz/Getty Images EntertainmentPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) stock has been on a wild ride these last 12 months. It peaked close to $29 last year and is now at approximately $8. The stock had been sliding before this month’s earnings release. The release was a miss but, surprisingly, the stock rose in the weeks after it came out. After dipping 2.28% on the day of the release, PLTR recovered, rising 10.8% by Friday’s close.Why did PLTR rise despite missing on earnings?It might have had something to do with management’s statements. In the earnings call that took place after Palantir’s earnings release came out, CEO Alex Karp hit on all the right notes. Among other things, he said:Palantir is only doing $9 million worth of stock-based compensation this year.The average Foundry customer spent $6.5 million on the service last year.He has 100% of his own money invested in Palantir.These comments may have eased investors’ nerves. The last one, in particular, showed that Karp was 100% invested in his own company, indicating high conviction from an important insider.Nevertheless, PLTR’s Q1 release provided some real causes for concern. It featured the company’s slowest revenue growth in years, as well as a GAAP net loss. 16% growth in government revenue was particularly concerning, as that segment has always been considered Palantir’s bread and butter. Given all of these concerns, I would hold off on buying PLTR stock for now. I do, however, think that there is a price at which the stock becomes interesting, and I will spend the remainder of this article explaining why $5 is that price.Palantir’s Competitive PositionOne of the reasons why Palantir has a non-zero value, despite its endless losses, is because of its competitive position. PLTR locks in government contracts with long lifespans, and it faces little competition in its niche. So, it has a significant amount of recurring revenue.Many online services have attempted to come up with lists of Palantir competitors but most are not true “head to head” competitors. For example, Craft.co has a list of Palantir’s competitors, featuring some questionable inclusions. It lists:Tableau, a data visualization suite that does not include many of the features of Foundry and Gotham.Cognizant (CTSH) - an IT consulting company.These companies do offer data analytics, which makes them superficially similar to Palantir. However, they don’t offer comprehensive data platforms aimed mainly at Federal Government agencies, so they aren’t head-to-head competitors. However, a few possible contenders for “true competitors” stand out:IBM (IBM) - has numerous data platforms going after clients in the financial services sector, one of Palantir’s big client bases.Tyler Technologies (TYL) - a data service works with government clients.Alteryx (AYX) - a data platform that mostly works with private sector clients but does list some government clients on its case study page.The above are probably Palantir’s closest competitors. They resemble PLTR in some respects. However, they do not have Palantir’s specific expertise in managing data for intelligence and military operations. So, Palantir is uncontested in that sub-niche.It’s a bit of a different story in the commercial part of Palantir’s business. In that space, PLTR faces dozens of competitors, and only has a 2.4% market share. Businesses that want general purpose data analytics have many options to choose from, so Palantir will have a harder time standing out in the commercial space.ValuationAs I showed in the previous section, Palantir enjoys an admirable competitive position in providing data analytics for Military and Intelligence agencies. Its overall position in big data and machine learning is not mind blowing, but it at least has one niche locked down. This fact means that Palantir’s stock is not at risk of going to zero. Government revenue is extremely stable, as it’s backed by taxing authority, and Palantir’s government contracts last 3.5 years on average.So, without a doubt, Palantir stock is worth some positive amount of money based on its fundamentals. As for how much it’s worth, we need to look at the stock’s valuation. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, PLTR trades at:67 times adjusted earnings.9.7 times sales.7 times book value.65 times operating cash flow.These are frankly extremely high multiples these days. In 2021, at the height of the post-COVID bubble, numbers like these weren’t unheard-of. But this year, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and investors are taking a long, hard look at expensive companies. If you look at the stocks that have suffered notable 50%+ declines this year, it’s practically a who’s who of last year’s expensive tech stocks:Tesla (TSLA).Shopify (SHOP).Netflix (NFLX).Peloton (PTON).PLTR, like these stocks, has gone down in price. However, its multiples remain high. Enough so that we might wonder whether it has further to fall. Additionally, PLTR’s revenue growth decelerated significantly in its most recent quarter–though it remained fairly high at 31%.So there’s some basis here for thinking that PLTR has further to fall. To gauge how much further it has to fall, we need to do a discounted cash flow analysis. According to its cash flow statements, PLTR had $0.11 in free cash flow per share in the trailing 12 month period. There is no historical pattern in cash flows we can ascertain because free cash flow only became positive last year. However, we know that Palantir’s revenue is growing at 31%. If FCF grows in proportion to revenue, then the next five year’s cash flows will be:Base year: $0.11Year 1: $0.144Year 2: $0.188Year 3: $0.25Year 4: $0.323Year 5: $0.424According to Finbox, Palantir’s weighted average cost of capital is 8.62%. If we use that as the discount rate, then five years’ cash flows can be discounted as shown below:As you can see, the five years’ cash flows have approximately $1 in present value.Next, we need a terminal value. If we assume growth tapers off to 0% after five years, then our final year’s cash flow is 0.424. The discount rate minus the growth rate is 3.62%. So we get a terminal value of $4.91. That plus the five year’s cash flows gives us a fair value of $5.91.Now, I’ve been pretty conservative here by estimating sustainable growth at 0%. If you use 5% instead of 0% then you get to a fair value of $13.58. Potentially, Palantir could grow faster and longer than that. But when making estimates, it pays to be conservative. So, $5.91 is a “safe” estimate of fair value.Risks and ChallengesAs we’ve seen, Palantir stock would be a pretty safe bet at $5. If it kept up its growth, it could even be worth as much as $13.58. If the stock dips much further then, an investor probably would do well buying it. However, we aren’t quite done. Before endorsing any thesis on a stock, we need to consider the risks to shareholders, and the challenges to the thesis. In Palantir’s case, there are a good few of these. A few of the most notable are:Deceleration. My basic PLTR model yielded $5.91 in present value with a sustainable growth rate of 0%, and $13.58 with a sustainable growth rate of 5%. Neither of these growth rates are over the top. The assumption of 0% growth after five years is rather conservative. However, I nevertheless assumed that PLTR’s FCF growth can stay at 31% for five full years before the deceleration kicks in. Should deceleration kick in before five years, then the fair value will end up being lower than what I’ve estimated here.Stock based compensation. One factor arguing that Palantir isn’t just another overhyped growth stock is its positive FCF. The company is certainly turning a “profit” in cash flow terms. However, one of the ways Palantir keeps its cash flows high is through stock based compensation. It pays its employees in heavy amounts of stock, which keeps cash costs low as it results in lower salary expense. As a result of paying out so much stock, PLTR’s share count doubled in the year following its IPO. The more shares hit the float, the less each investor’s percentage claim on earnings, and the more potential selling pressure there is. So, continued dilution via SBC is a major risk factor for PLTR stock.Loss of major contracts. Although Palantir’s long contract duration ensures revenue stability in the medium term, it may not be as reliable in the long term. Governments can and do cancel relationships with contractors. Sometimes, they do so for political reasons. For example, in 2021, Palantir lost a contract with a UK Health Authority due to data privacy concerns. For now, it doesn’t look like PLTR is at risk of having this happen with any U.S. clients. But it’s always a possibility, and it could cost shareholders real money.The Bottom LineThe bottom line on Palantir is that it’s a real, cash flow positive company whose stock is unfortunately a bit overvalued right now. There is no question that Palantir is growing and maybe even profitable by some metrics. But its growth isn’t quite fast enough to justify its current stock price. It would take $5.91 or lower for PLTR to become interesting.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023587379,"gmtCreate":1652931139291,"gmtModify":1676535191887,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023587379","repostId":"2236757950","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236757950","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652924620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236757950?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 09:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Palantir Technologies vs. Amazon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236757950","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which fallen growth stock is the better turnaround play?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Palantir’s slowdown raises questions about its goal of generating more than 30% annual revenue growth through 2025.</li><li>Amazon’s e-commerce business faces tough macro headwinds in a post-lockdown world.</li><li>One of these stocks is still more speculative than the other.</li></ul><p><b>Palantir</b> and <b>Amazon</b> both burned the bulls after their stocks hit all-time highs last year.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock started trading at $10 after the data-mining firm went public via a direct listing in September 2020. It soared to $39 last January amid the Reddit-fueled trading frenzy in &#34;meme stocks,&#34; but it now trades at about $8. Amazon&#39;s stock closed at an all-time high of $3,731.41 last July, but it subsequently tumbled to about $2,200 as investors fretted over its slowing e-commerce growth and rising expenses.</p><p>Is either beaten-down tech stock worth buying as rising interest rates and other macro challenges challenge the entire sector?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ad4f9775ea128f423bb9a82ae26d3c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><b>Palantir is losing its momentum</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s data mining and analytics tools help government and commercial customers make informed decisions. Its government business, which aims to become the &#34;default operating system for data across the U.S. government,&#34; has traditionally grown faster than its commercial business.</p><p>But over the past three quarters, its commercial business has grown at a faster rate than its government business. That slowdown raises troubling questions about brewing competition from other data mining platforms and internally developed alternatives within the U.S. government.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s revenue rose 47% to $1.09 billion in 2020 and grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021.</p><p>It insists it will generate at least 30% annual revenue growth through 2025, but it&#39;s off to a rough start this year: Its revenue rose 31% in the first quarter, but it expects just 25% growth in the second quarter. It believes its growth will improve in the second half of the year as it secures more &#34;anticipated&#34; contracts, but analysts expect just 29% growth this year.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s adjusted gross and operating margins also fell both sequentially and year over year in the first quarter of 2022. For the full year, it expects its adjusted operating margin to decline about four percentage points to 27% as it ramps up its investments &#34;in advance&#34; of future contracts. It isn&#39;t profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis yet, but analysts expect its non-GAAP EPS to improve 23% this year.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s business is still expanding, but its slowing growth, shrinking margins, and lack of GAAP profits made it an unappealing investment as the macro headwinds drove investors away from riskier growth plays.</p><p><b>Amazon faces tough post-pandemic challenges</b></p><p>Amazon generates most of its revenue from its e-commerce marketplaces, but most of its profits come from Amazon Web Services (AWS), the largest cloud infrastructure platform in the world. Both of these businesses fired on all cylinders throughout the pandemic, as more people shopped online and companies ramped up their spending on cloud-based services.</p><p>But as the lockdown measures were relaxed, Amazon&#39;s e-commerce growth decelerated while its expenses surged amid rising fuel costs, supply chain challenges, and other inflationary headwinds. It invested in the electric truck maker <b>Rivian</b> to offset those long-term costs, but that poorly timed investment resulted in a pre-tax loss of $7.6 billion (compared to its total net loss of $3.8 billion) last quarter.</p><p>That staggering loss tarnished the bullish thesis that Amazon could consistently subsidize its lower-margin retail business with AWS&#39; higher-margin revenue. AWS is still the market leader and generating more than 30% revenue growth each quarter, but this core profit engine could struggle to offset the losses of Amazon&#39;s other businesses later this year.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s revenue rose 38% to $386 billion in 2020 and grew 22% to $470 billion in 2021. Its EPS increased 82% in 2020, even as it incurred billions of dollars of COVID-19-related expenses, and grew 55% in 2021. But this year, analysts expect its revenue to grow a mere 12% as its EPS tumbles 75%.</p><p>Just like Palantir, Amazon&#39;s toxic mix of slowing growth and rising expenses made it a difficult stock to own.</p><p><b>But Amazon has a better shot at a recovery</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock trades at 43 times forward earnings and nine times this year&#39;s sales. It still isn&#39;t cheap relative to similar growth stocks like <b>Twilio</b>, which aims to generate more than 30% organic revenue growth through 2024 but trades at just five times this year&#39;s sales.</p><p>Amazon trades at 42 times forward earnings and two times this year&#39;s sales. That&#39;s a high price-to-earnings ratio for a traditional retailer but a low price-to-sales ratio for an e-commerce or cloud infrastructure company. Those mixed valuations should limit its downside potential, but Amazon&#39;s stock probably won&#39;t rally until its e-commerce business stabilizes.</p><p>I wouldn&#39;t rush to buy either of these stocks right now. But if I had to choose one over the other, I&#39;d definitely stick with Amazon because it&#39;s larger, better diversified, and more profitable. Palantir&#39;s future is still highly speculative, and its recent slowdown suggests that its long-term target of at least 30% revenue growth through 2025 might be too ambitious.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Palantir Technologies vs. Amazon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Palantir Technologies vs. Amazon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 09:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/better-buy-palantir-technologies-vs-amazon/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSPalantir’s slowdown raises questions about its goal of generating more than 30% annual revenue growth through 2025.Amazon’s e-commerce business faces tough macro headwinds in a post-lockdown...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/better-buy-palantir-technologies-vs-amazon/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/better-buy-palantir-technologies-vs-amazon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236757950","content_text":"KEY POINTSPalantir’s slowdown raises questions about its goal of generating more than 30% annual revenue growth through 2025.Amazon’s e-commerce business faces tough macro headwinds in a post-lockdown world.One of these stocks is still more speculative than the other.Palantir and Amazon both burned the bulls after their stocks hit all-time highs last year.Palantir's stock started trading at $10 after the data-mining firm went public via a direct listing in September 2020. It soared to $39 last January amid the Reddit-fueled trading frenzy in \"meme stocks,\" but it now trades at about $8. Amazon's stock closed at an all-time high of $3,731.41 last July, but it subsequently tumbled to about $2,200 as investors fretted over its slowing e-commerce growth and rising expenses.Is either beaten-down tech stock worth buying as rising interest rates and other macro challenges challenge the entire sector?IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Palantir is losing its momentumPalantir's data mining and analytics tools help government and commercial customers make informed decisions. Its government business, which aims to become the \"default operating system for data across the U.S. government,\" has traditionally grown faster than its commercial business.But over the past three quarters, its commercial business has grown at a faster rate than its government business. That slowdown raises troubling questions about brewing competition from other data mining platforms and internally developed alternatives within the U.S. government.Palantir's revenue rose 47% to $1.09 billion in 2020 and grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021.It insists it will generate at least 30% annual revenue growth through 2025, but it's off to a rough start this year: Its revenue rose 31% in the first quarter, but it expects just 25% growth in the second quarter. It believes its growth will improve in the second half of the year as it secures more \"anticipated\" contracts, but analysts expect just 29% growth this year.Palantir's adjusted gross and operating margins also fell both sequentially and year over year in the first quarter of 2022. For the full year, it expects its adjusted operating margin to decline about four percentage points to 27% as it ramps up its investments \"in advance\" of future contracts. It isn't profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis yet, but analysts expect its non-GAAP EPS to improve 23% this year.Palantir's business is still expanding, but its slowing growth, shrinking margins, and lack of GAAP profits made it an unappealing investment as the macro headwinds drove investors away from riskier growth plays.Amazon faces tough post-pandemic challengesAmazon generates most of its revenue from its e-commerce marketplaces, but most of its profits come from Amazon Web Services (AWS), the largest cloud infrastructure platform in the world. Both of these businesses fired on all cylinders throughout the pandemic, as more people shopped online and companies ramped up their spending on cloud-based services.But as the lockdown measures were relaxed, Amazon's e-commerce growth decelerated while its expenses surged amid rising fuel costs, supply chain challenges, and other inflationary headwinds. It invested in the electric truck maker Rivian to offset those long-term costs, but that poorly timed investment resulted in a pre-tax loss of $7.6 billion (compared to its total net loss of $3.8 billion) last quarter.That staggering loss tarnished the bullish thesis that Amazon could consistently subsidize its lower-margin retail business with AWS' higher-margin revenue. AWS is still the market leader and generating more than 30% revenue growth each quarter, but this core profit engine could struggle to offset the losses of Amazon's other businesses later this year.Amazon's revenue rose 38% to $386 billion in 2020 and grew 22% to $470 billion in 2021. Its EPS increased 82% in 2020, even as it incurred billions of dollars of COVID-19-related expenses, and grew 55% in 2021. But this year, analysts expect its revenue to grow a mere 12% as its EPS tumbles 75%.Just like Palantir, Amazon's toxic mix of slowing growth and rising expenses made it a difficult stock to own.But Amazon has a better shot at a recoveryPalantir's stock trades at 43 times forward earnings and nine times this year's sales. It still isn't cheap relative to similar growth stocks like Twilio, which aims to generate more than 30% organic revenue growth through 2024 but trades at just five times this year's sales.Amazon trades at 42 times forward earnings and two times this year's sales. That's a high price-to-earnings ratio for a traditional retailer but a low price-to-sales ratio for an e-commerce or cloud infrastructure company. Those mixed valuations should limit its downside potential, but Amazon's stock probably won't rally until its e-commerce business stabilizes.I wouldn't rush to buy either of these stocks right now. But if I had to choose one over the other, I'd definitely stick with Amazon because it's larger, better diversified, and more profitable. Palantir's future is still highly speculative, and its recent slowdown suggests that its long-term target of at least 30% revenue growth through 2025 might be too ambitious.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023052891,"gmtCreate":1652839431413,"gmtModify":1676535172852,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023052891","repostId":"2236059692","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236059692","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652839200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236059692?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Dead Cat Bounce?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236059692","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline.For Palantir to achieve a similar","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline.</li><li>For Palantir to achieve a similar valuation to Microsoft, it must double its cash flow and quadruple its revenue, only to justify its current price of $8.3.</li><li>The market is overestimating Palantir&#39;s competitive moat and growth prospects. This is evident in soft Q1 results, namely in the US government segment.</li><li>Prices beyond $10 per share push growth expectations into an inflated territory.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da7c969e6aa80604844160e6fdbcf1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p>So much for the mission-critical defense software. Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) lowered its Q2 guidance last week despite the steep escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. During an odd earnings call, Alex Karp expressed frustration over governments&#39; failure tosee the world as it really is or as he puts it:</p><blockquote>Escaping to the Metaverse or faculty lounge jargon or political structures that are clearly not solving problems</blockquote><blockquote>[...] Why do we describe these things as uncertainty when they are certain and are happening?</blockquote><blockquote>[...] We at Palantir are not fleeing to a different world, whether it&#39;s the Meta-world or a theological world or a financial version of theological world or a grad school version of theological world, which isn&#39;t even actually academic because academic presupposes interacting with the object from a theoretical perspective, differentiate from the object, not importing a theological preconceived version of the object onto the theory and reimporting that onto the object. Products don&#39;t work like that. Reality doesn&#39;t work like that.</blockquote><blockquote>[...] The future is to be won by people who accept the reality of what it is and not what it ought to be - PLTR Q1 Earnings Call</blockquote><p>The good news is that many investors are failing in that regard, too, lifting shares by 7% since the earnings release selloff.</p><p>Commercial Revenue wasn&#39;t great either when excluding affiliate revenue. During the earnings call, management gave precise figures on US Commercial sales for the first time, allowing investors to extrapolate other previously aggregated segments, such as Foreign Government, Foreign Commercial, and US Government revenue, offering more insight into revenue trends. I discuss these dynamics below.</p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating reflect softness in growth, compared to three and six months ago, weighted against improvements in profitability, stemming from the economics of scale and maturation of its accounts.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0d9254079e3e0310599fffa228e7d6\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"81\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>PTR remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline. Those buying the dip most likely base their decision on technical analysis, capitalizing on stock volatility rather than the company&#39;s fundamentals. Even when incorporating a 30% growth, PLTR is still overvalued. I will discuss valuation in more detail in the coming sections. Until then, Seeking Alpha Quant Rating offers an easy-to-read valuation index.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d94cfee2697ccea28e37563d996cfe\" tg-width=\"255\" tg-height=\"29\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Q1 results verify our concerns highlighted in the previous article, manifested in underestimated competitive dynamics, market position, and overvaluation. Below is an update in light of the recent market correction and an expanded analysis of PLTR&#39;s revenue trends.</p><p><b>Revenue Trends</b></p><p>What is PLTR&#39;s revenue potential? What are sales going to be like in 5 years? It is probably more than its $1.6 TTM revenue, or at least this is what the market expects.</p><p>Management states that its software has the potential of becoming the &#34;default operating system&#34; for government and entire industries, a goal it incorporates in its growth strategy pitched to investors during earnings calls, investment prospectuses, and news media. Investors are told that Foundry is what AWS was ten years ago, and this has been mentioned two times during earnings calls (Q4 2021 and Q1 2022) and at least once on TV.</p><p>Is Foundry the future AWS? I don&#39;t think so. But let&#39;s entertain this thought for a second. Amazon (AMZN) generated $62 billion from its AWS services last year and $18.5 billion in operating income from the same segment. Assuming a 20% tax rate and a share count of 2 billion, this translates to roughly $7 EPS. Using a price multiple of 15x translates to $105 per share. Is this the fair value of PLTR? No, because the probability that Foundry becomes AWS is uncertain. In statistics, we solve this problem using probability theory by simply multiplying the random variable ($105 per share) with the probability of achieving this figure. In this case, the likelihood of Foundry gaining as much acceptance as AWS. This could range from Zero to 100%. For example, if we say there is a 15% probability that Foundry becomes the future AWS, then the fair value of PLTR is 0.15 * $105 = $15.75 per share. For this reason, assessing growth and the validity of growth assumptions, drivers and risks lie at the heart of PLTR&#39;s valuation.</p><p>PLTR often downplays competition from other software vendors, giving an image that their product is unique to the point it warrants its own category</p><blockquote>We are fundamentally competing with the internal software development efforts of our potential customers. IPOProspectus</blockquote><p>I think PLTR faces stiff competition. In 2020, the Department of Justice replaced PLTR with DataWalk (DAT.WA), a Polish microcap. Competitive bidding against other larger tech is a fundamental part of its SG&amp;A expenses. Is Foundry fundamentally different than Azure Synapse? Well, not according to procurement managers, who consider both before making a purchase decision.</p><p>I think that the market is underestimating PLTR&#39;s competitive landscape. This is not to say that PLTR won&#39;t achieve growth. Instead, I believe that this growth will come due to operating in an expanding Enterprise Software market, capitalizing on a renewed interest in digitalization trends instead of any product superiority, whether from quality or differentiation. The competitive moat in the tech sector stems from three elements:</p><ol><li>Talent</li><li>Ecosystems around the product/service</li><li>Data collection and feedback, allowing engineers to tweak and hone algorithms</li></ol><p>Let&#39;s elaborate on each factor with an example. Apple&#39;s (AAPL) moat doesn&#39;t stem from critical intellectual property &#34;IP&#34; shielding it from competitors wishing to build an operating system. Instead, the talent it attracts allows it to create a unique user experience. PLTR spends nearly 50% of its revenue on stock compensation to attract talent. This doesn&#39;t hurt, but engineers also look at other factors, including culture, work-life balance, and even business outlook. Glassdoor offers an excellent comparison survey, showing that although PLTR pays slightly more on average than Microsoft (MSFT), generally speaking, MSFT employees rate their company more favorably than PLTR. It is also interesting that Alex Karp has the lowest CEO approval among the FAANGs. It would be interesting to see how management will navigate between shareholders&#39; desire for less SG&amp;A and the stock decline shrinking its employee&#39;s total compensation.</p><p>What makes Android unique is the third-party software found in the App Store, creating an ecosystem that enriches its quality. Can you imagine your phone without the apps? This also goes for Azure and AWS. Does PLTR have this kind of ecosystem? Is it popular among engineers? Not really, but management sure is confident that someday it will, and investors seem to like the prospects.</p><p>Alphabet&#39;s (GOOG) Google Search is only competitive because of the massive amounts of data it collects from users, allowing it to tweak and hone its search algorithms. This is why MSFT is paying people to use Bing more than ad revenue. PLTR&#39;s engineers spend a lot of time on customers&#39; sites, tweaking and editing algorithms as they respond responding to customers&#39; complaints and feedback. These expenses are recorded as SG&amp;A and R&amp;D, and at current levels, these accounts are more than one would be comfortable with from a SaaS company. Disappointing EPS also contributed to the ticker&#39;s selloff last week. Historically, the more clients remain with PLTR, the more profitable they become. This is why PLTR divides its clients into three categories (Acquire, Expand, and Scale).</p><p><b>Deaccelerating Growth</b></p><p>Soft Q1 mirrors challenges facing PLTR to deliver on growth expectations and cast doubt over its market position and competitive edge. One might ask, how is 31% revenue growth a disappointment? The much-touted &#34;gravity-defying growth&#34; experienced in 2021 resulted from an initial spike in marketing resources and moat from going public, in addition to a low revenue base, making incremental revenue additions translate to large growth percentages. The 31% growth is the lowest since going public, verifying these dynamics, and contributing to the recent selloff.</p><p>Moreover, there are signs of weakness in core segments. For example, the government segment increased only by 16%, despite a rise in geopolitical tensions, which theoretically ought to increase demand for Gotham, and foreign governments seem hesitant to try PLTR. The International Government segment posted $53 million in sales, mostly from the UK&#39;s National Health Service&#39;s Covid-response program.</p><p>Speaking of the global market, Europe lags behind the US in terms of digital transformation (business process automation), so this is a challenge and opportunity at the same time. Unit now, we&#39;re not seeing momentum in Foreign revenue, neither from the commercial nor public sectors. Many are talking about the 136% growth in US commercial segment. This is an impressive figure until one finds out that Q1 US commercial revenue stood at $35 million last year, and this year it is $84 million, which, in my book, doesn&#39;t constitute a &#34;momentum,&#34; given the size of the US market. Moreover, this figure includes revenue from PLTR&#39;s affiliates, who received significant equity investments from PLTR in recent quarters. Excluding these affiliates, total commercial revenue growth is closer to 25%. Again, these figures would be okay if it wasn&#39;t for the price.</p><p>During the earnings call, management revealed US Commercial revenue figures separately for the first time, allowing us to extrapolate other revenue segments beyond the traditional breakdown between Government vs. Commercial and US vs. International.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71da3b7116fc7356c8cb3084006d24c\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"803\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s estimates based on company data</span></p><p>Interestingly, Foreign Commercial is higher than US Commercial, despite the recent surge and the contribution of PLTR&#39;s affiliate acquisitions. Is this a sign of a maturing US digital transformation market? No one can really tell. US government remains the cornerstone of PLTR, and it is frustrating to see International Segment lagging as it is.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>YTD, PLTR price declined 60%, bringing PLTR closer to its fair value. However, by no means is it cheap. PLTR trades at 60 times its operating cash flow. Its enterprise value to sales is 11.2x, almost four times the IT sector&#39;s average. For PLTR to reach a similar multiple to MSFT, it must double its operating cash flows and maintain a 20% - 25% growth rate. This is the bare minimum to justify its current price of $8.3 per share. This also ignores the different market position, product portfolio, and a competitive moat between the two companies, which tilt in MSFT&#39;s favor. In my view, any price beyond $10 pushes PLTR&#39;s valuations/growth expectations into a state of unreasonableness. Some commentators say that if you wait for enough time, PLTR shares will increase. Sure, if not for anything but inflation, assuming it maintains its market position. But if you&#39;re not looking for Alpha, you are better off buying the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) index. From my experience, you find Alpha in underestimated tickers, and PLTR is anything but underestimated, given its hefty valuation and lackluster growth.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2e581d100eeb2603722fe72484add01\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>What about the PE ratio? At this point, PLTR spends a lot of money on R&amp;D and marketing, mirroring the cost it incurs in installing and tweaking software algorithms to customers&#39; liking, which, to a certain extent, underestimates its long-term profitability margins.</p><p>We would like to see growth prices (manifested in R&amp;D and marketing expenses) go down from a valuation perspective. Other companies are achieving more growth with fewer costs.</p><p>To PLTR&#39;s credit, the software business is characterized by scalability and high-profit margins. By definition, the bigger a SaaS company gets, the higher its net income margins. If you look at its peer group, you&#39;ll find different net income margins. For example, MSFT&#39;s 5-year average net income margin is 28% from a $147 million 5-year average revenue. Salesforce (CRM), on the other hand, had a 7.5% net income margin from a $19 billion 5-year average revenue.</p><p>I think PLTR falls at the lower end of the profitability scale, given its small size ($1.6 billion TTM revenue). Assuming it generates a similar profitability ratio as Salesforce (CRM) (7.5% 5-year average margin), PLTR will need to quadruple its revenue by next year to achieve a comparable PE ratio to its peers, based on the current price of $8.3.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Despite the recent selloff, PLTR shares remain overvalued, even when incorporating a 30% growth scenario pitched by management during earnings calls. It seems PLTR&#39;s &#34;mission-critical&#34; software is not as critical as many think. The inability to penetrate the foreign public sector is a source of concern. Maybe it is just that the products are not as appealing or revolutionary as management would hope. Perhaps the European market is not ready. In a best-case scenario, disappointing results mirror a longer sales cycle than expected, meaning it will take more time for PLTR to achieve its revenue target.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Dead Cat Bounce?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Dead Cat Bounce?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512659-palantir-dead-cat-bounce><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline.For Palantir to achieve a similar valuation to Microsoft, it must double its cash flow and quadruple its revenue, only to justify its...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512659-palantir-dead-cat-bounce\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512659-palantir-dead-cat-bounce","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2236059692","content_text":"SummaryPalantir remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline.For Palantir to achieve a similar valuation to Microsoft, it must double its cash flow and quadruple its revenue, only to justify its current price of $8.3.The market is overestimating Palantir's competitive moat and growth prospects. This is evident in soft Q1 results, namely in the US government segment.Prices beyond $10 per share push growth expectations into an inflated territory.Drew Angerer/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisSo much for the mission-critical defense software. Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) lowered its Q2 guidance last week despite the steep escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. During an odd earnings call, Alex Karp expressed frustration over governments' failure tosee the world as it really is or as he puts it:Escaping to the Metaverse or faculty lounge jargon or political structures that are clearly not solving problems[...] Why do we describe these things as uncertainty when they are certain and are happening?[...] We at Palantir are not fleeing to a different world, whether it's the Meta-world or a theological world or a financial version of theological world or a grad school version of theological world, which isn't even actually academic because academic presupposes interacting with the object from a theoretical perspective, differentiate from the object, not importing a theological preconceived version of the object onto the theory and reimporting that onto the object. Products don't work like that. Reality doesn't work like that.[...] The future is to be won by people who accept the reality of what it is and not what it ought to be - PLTR Q1 Earnings CallThe good news is that many investors are failing in that regard, too, lifting shares by 7% since the earnings release selloff.Commercial Revenue wasn't great either when excluding affiliate revenue. During the earnings call, management gave precise figures on US Commercial sales for the first time, allowing investors to extrapolate other previously aggregated segments, such as Foreign Government, Foreign Commercial, and US Government revenue, offering more insight into revenue trends. I discuss these dynamics below.Seeking Alpha Quant Rating reflect softness in growth, compared to three and six months ago, weighted against improvements in profitability, stemming from the economics of scale and maturation of its accounts.Seeking AlphaPTR remains overvalued despite a 54% YTD price decline. Those buying the dip most likely base their decision on technical analysis, capitalizing on stock volatility rather than the company's fundamentals. Even when incorporating a 30% growth, PLTR is still overvalued. I will discuss valuation in more detail in the coming sections. Until then, Seeking Alpha Quant Rating offers an easy-to-read valuation index.Seeking AlphaQ1 results verify our concerns highlighted in the previous article, manifested in underestimated competitive dynamics, market position, and overvaluation. Below is an update in light of the recent market correction and an expanded analysis of PLTR's revenue trends.Revenue TrendsWhat is PLTR's revenue potential? What are sales going to be like in 5 years? It is probably more than its $1.6 TTM revenue, or at least this is what the market expects.Management states that its software has the potential of becoming the \"default operating system\" for government and entire industries, a goal it incorporates in its growth strategy pitched to investors during earnings calls, investment prospectuses, and news media. Investors are told that Foundry is what AWS was ten years ago, and this has been mentioned two times during earnings calls (Q4 2021 and Q1 2022) and at least once on TV.Is Foundry the future AWS? I don't think so. But let's entertain this thought for a second. Amazon (AMZN) generated $62 billion from its AWS services last year and $18.5 billion in operating income from the same segment. Assuming a 20% tax rate and a share count of 2 billion, this translates to roughly $7 EPS. Using a price multiple of 15x translates to $105 per share. Is this the fair value of PLTR? No, because the probability that Foundry becomes AWS is uncertain. In statistics, we solve this problem using probability theory by simply multiplying the random variable ($105 per share) with the probability of achieving this figure. In this case, the likelihood of Foundry gaining as much acceptance as AWS. This could range from Zero to 100%. For example, if we say there is a 15% probability that Foundry becomes the future AWS, then the fair value of PLTR is 0.15 * $105 = $15.75 per share. For this reason, assessing growth and the validity of growth assumptions, drivers and risks lie at the heart of PLTR's valuation.PLTR often downplays competition from other software vendors, giving an image that their product is unique to the point it warrants its own categoryWe are fundamentally competing with the internal software development efforts of our potential customers. IPOProspectusI think PLTR faces stiff competition. In 2020, the Department of Justice replaced PLTR with DataWalk (DAT.WA), a Polish microcap. Competitive bidding against other larger tech is a fundamental part of its SG&A expenses. Is Foundry fundamentally different than Azure Synapse? Well, not according to procurement managers, who consider both before making a purchase decision.I think that the market is underestimating PLTR's competitive landscape. This is not to say that PLTR won't achieve growth. Instead, I believe that this growth will come due to operating in an expanding Enterprise Software market, capitalizing on a renewed interest in digitalization trends instead of any product superiority, whether from quality or differentiation. The competitive moat in the tech sector stems from three elements:TalentEcosystems around the product/serviceData collection and feedback, allowing engineers to tweak and hone algorithmsLet's elaborate on each factor with an example. Apple's (AAPL) moat doesn't stem from critical intellectual property \"IP\" shielding it from competitors wishing to build an operating system. Instead, the talent it attracts allows it to create a unique user experience. PLTR spends nearly 50% of its revenue on stock compensation to attract talent. This doesn't hurt, but engineers also look at other factors, including culture, work-life balance, and even business outlook. Glassdoor offers an excellent comparison survey, showing that although PLTR pays slightly more on average than Microsoft (MSFT), generally speaking, MSFT employees rate their company more favorably than PLTR. It is also interesting that Alex Karp has the lowest CEO approval among the FAANGs. It would be interesting to see how management will navigate between shareholders' desire for less SG&A and the stock decline shrinking its employee's total compensation.What makes Android unique is the third-party software found in the App Store, creating an ecosystem that enriches its quality. Can you imagine your phone without the apps? This also goes for Azure and AWS. Does PLTR have this kind of ecosystem? Is it popular among engineers? Not really, but management sure is confident that someday it will, and investors seem to like the prospects.Alphabet's (GOOG) Google Search is only competitive because of the massive amounts of data it collects from users, allowing it to tweak and hone its search algorithms. This is why MSFT is paying people to use Bing more than ad revenue. PLTR's engineers spend a lot of time on customers' sites, tweaking and editing algorithms as they respond responding to customers' complaints and feedback. These expenses are recorded as SG&A and R&D, and at current levels, these accounts are more than one would be comfortable with from a SaaS company. Disappointing EPS also contributed to the ticker's selloff last week. Historically, the more clients remain with PLTR, the more profitable they become. This is why PLTR divides its clients into three categories (Acquire, Expand, and Scale).Deaccelerating GrowthSoft Q1 mirrors challenges facing PLTR to deliver on growth expectations and cast doubt over its market position and competitive edge. One might ask, how is 31% revenue growth a disappointment? The much-touted \"gravity-defying growth\" experienced in 2021 resulted from an initial spike in marketing resources and moat from going public, in addition to a low revenue base, making incremental revenue additions translate to large growth percentages. The 31% growth is the lowest since going public, verifying these dynamics, and contributing to the recent selloff.Moreover, there are signs of weakness in core segments. For example, the government segment increased only by 16%, despite a rise in geopolitical tensions, which theoretically ought to increase demand for Gotham, and foreign governments seem hesitant to try PLTR. The International Government segment posted $53 million in sales, mostly from the UK's National Health Service's Covid-response program.Speaking of the global market, Europe lags behind the US in terms of digital transformation (business process automation), so this is a challenge and opportunity at the same time. Unit now, we're not seeing momentum in Foreign revenue, neither from the commercial nor public sectors. Many are talking about the 136% growth in US commercial segment. This is an impressive figure until one finds out that Q1 US commercial revenue stood at $35 million last year, and this year it is $84 million, which, in my book, doesn't constitute a \"momentum,\" given the size of the US market. Moreover, this figure includes revenue from PLTR's affiliates, who received significant equity investments from PLTR in recent quarters. Excluding these affiliates, total commercial revenue growth is closer to 25%. Again, these figures would be okay if it wasn't for the price.During the earnings call, management revealed US Commercial revenue figures separately for the first time, allowing us to extrapolate other revenue segments beyond the traditional breakdown between Government vs. Commercial and US vs. International.Source: Author's estimates based on company dataInterestingly, Foreign Commercial is higher than US Commercial, despite the recent surge and the contribution of PLTR's affiliate acquisitions. Is this a sign of a maturing US digital transformation market? No one can really tell. US government remains the cornerstone of PLTR, and it is frustrating to see International Segment lagging as it is.ValuationYTD, PLTR price declined 60%, bringing PLTR closer to its fair value. However, by no means is it cheap. PLTR trades at 60 times its operating cash flow. Its enterprise value to sales is 11.2x, almost four times the IT sector's average. For PLTR to reach a similar multiple to MSFT, it must double its operating cash flows and maintain a 20% - 25% growth rate. This is the bare minimum to justify its current price of $8.3 per share. This also ignores the different market position, product portfolio, and a competitive moat between the two companies, which tilt in MSFT's favor. In my view, any price beyond $10 pushes PLTR's valuations/growth expectations into a state of unreasonableness. Some commentators say that if you wait for enough time, PLTR shares will increase. Sure, if not for anything but inflation, assuming it maintains its market position. But if you're not looking for Alpha, you are better off buying the S&P 500 (SPY) index. From my experience, you find Alpha in underestimated tickers, and PLTR is anything but underestimated, given its hefty valuation and lackluster growth.YChartsWhat about the PE ratio? At this point, PLTR spends a lot of money on R&D and marketing, mirroring the cost it incurs in installing and tweaking software algorithms to customers' liking, which, to a certain extent, underestimates its long-term profitability margins.We would like to see growth prices (manifested in R&D and marketing expenses) go down from a valuation perspective. Other companies are achieving more growth with fewer costs.To PLTR's credit, the software business is characterized by scalability and high-profit margins. By definition, the bigger a SaaS company gets, the higher its net income margins. If you look at its peer group, you'll find different net income margins. For example, MSFT's 5-year average net income margin is 28% from a $147 million 5-year average revenue. Salesforce (CRM), on the other hand, had a 7.5% net income margin from a $19 billion 5-year average revenue.I think PLTR falls at the lower end of the profitability scale, given its small size ($1.6 billion TTM revenue). Assuming it generates a similar profitability ratio as Salesforce (CRM) (7.5% 5-year average margin), PLTR will need to quadruple its revenue by next year to achieve a comparable PE ratio to its peers, based on the current price of $8.3.SummaryDespite the recent selloff, PLTR shares remain overvalued, even when incorporating a 30% growth scenario pitched by management during earnings calls. It seems PLTR's \"mission-critical\" software is not as critical as many think. The inability to penetrate the foreign public sector is a source of concern. Maybe it is just that the products are not as appealing or revolutionary as management would hope. Perhaps the European market is not ready. In a best-case scenario, disappointing results mirror a longer sales cycle than expected, meaning it will take more time for PLTR to achieve its revenue target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029228603,"gmtCreate":1652790608102,"gmtModify":1676535161636,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029228603","repostId":"2236245709","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020448749,"gmtCreate":1652677871181,"gmtModify":1676535139932,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dont panic. Keep buying and hold.","listText":"Dont panic. Keep buying and hold.","text":"Dont panic. Keep buying and hold.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020448749","repostId":"1196003034","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196003034","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652669507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196003034?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-16 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196003034","media":"TheStreet","summary":"With PLTR at all-time lows, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock?Palantir shares are currently","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With PLTR at all-time lows, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock?</p><p><b>Palantir</b> shares are currently trading at all-time lows. This is due to the sharp drop of more than 20% after the company reported mixed earnings results and soft guidance for the second quarter (Q2).</p><p>Has an opportunity opened up to buy Palantir stock at a discount?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bdf217c9fadeb6eacfb8966767b0579\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"661\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 1: Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?</span></p><p><b>Palantir&#39;s Earnings Bloodbath</b></p><p>On the surface, Palantir&#39;s earnings numbers looked decent. Palantirreportedmixed Q1 results: While it missed its earnings per share estimates by 2 cents, the company reported revenues of $446.36 million — $2.85 million above expectations.</p><p>Revenues grew 31% year over year (YoY), above the annual revenue guidance of 30% growth. Commercial U.S. revenues were the highligh,t growing 136% YoY. Operating margins showed an improvement of 14% compared to last quarter and 33% compared to the same quarter last year.</p><p>The problem was that growth in its government business — Palantir’s most valuable segment — has been slowing down rapidly. Government revenue growth was below the company&#39;s target for the second consecutive quarter, at just 16% in Q1. In Q4, it grew only 26%.</p><p>And there&#39;s nothing worse for a tech growth stock than to report a growth slowdown. The current revenue consensus for 2022 is 28.7%, below Palantir&#39;s annual growth guidance. The full-year 2022 margin guidance remains at 27%. However, little clarity has been given on how the company intends to achieve these numbers, as it has already started Q1 reporting 7% below.</p><p>From the market&#39;s view, the outlook for Q2 was also disastrous. Palantir&#39;s management is expecting revenues of $470 million, which is only a 25% increase compared to Q2 last year. Investors are also disappointed by expected operating margins of 20%, indicating further declines from Q1, when margins were 26% — 3% lower than in Q4.</p><p><b>Under Bear Attack</b></p><p>The current tone on Wall Street regarding Palantir is not the most optimistic. Right after earnings, Citi analyst Tyler Radke decreased his price target on Palantir from $10 to $7 while maintaining his sell recommendation.</p><p>According to Radke, Palantir&#39;s underlying growth continued to weaken in the first quarter along with the lower beat on quarterly revenue estimates. Weak guidance below Wall Street estimates complete the bearish picture.</p><p>Further, the analyst said that growth metrics when adjusted for SPAC revenue are still worse, with minimal growth in commercial agreements alongside incremental declines in total commercial business revenues.</p><p>Another bear, Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick, also lowered his price target on Palantir from $15 to $11. The analyst is a critic of the company&#39;s lack of transparency to which the stock&#39;s compensation flatters profitability and limits the confidence in Palantir&#39;s long-term business.</p><p>However, Zelnick acknowledges that there is room for Palantir to grow in the near term, but he remains skeptical about how sustainable that growth can be.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>Palantir is a classic case of a long-term growth stock that has been hit hard by the current macroeconomic downturn. With the market in fear of a recession, growth stocks like Palantir that are still struggling to prove sustainable long-term growth profitability are naturally avoided by investors.</p><p>However, the stock still cannot be considered cheap based on its current valuation, even though it has dropped significantly in recent months. Palantir trades at a P/E ratio of 62 times, which implies a difference of 255% to the broader IT sector.</p><p>This high ratio is rightly attributed to the company&#39;s minimum annual growth target of 30% by 2025. And as the company proves unable to follow this trend, the negative market reaction should continue.</p><p>The positive long-term outlook for Palantir is the growth of its commercial customers, equivalent to 86% YoY growth. However, it will take some time for revenue growth through new customers to be reflected. This might have important potential for an upside in the long run. But it is difficult to be more confident about what can actually be expected further down the road.</p><p>Finally, the company&#39;s management reported that there is a large potential update in Palantir&#39;s guidance due to its role in responding to developing geopolitical events, such as the supply of military software in conflict developments from the Ukraine war. According to Palantir&#39;s CEO Alexander Karp, the company has spent nearly two decades preparing for the current moment.</p><p>Therefore, I believe it makes sense only to invest in Palantir at the current share price for the long term. Palantir’s software technology is great, but there are many doubts regarding Palantir’s ability to maintain its government and commercial business growth rate based on its current valuation.</p><p>There&#39;s no middle ground. Either Palantir shareholders who have patience will witness strong growth in the long run, or else the stock will plummet further until it reaches a valuation more in line with the sector.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-16 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/palantir-stock-should-you-buy-the-dip><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With PLTR at all-time lows, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock?Palantir shares are currently trading at all-time lows. This is due to the sharp drop of more than 20% after the company reported...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/palantir-stock-should-you-buy-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/palantir-stock-should-you-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196003034","content_text":"With PLTR at all-time lows, is now a good opportunity to buy the stock?Palantir shares are currently trading at all-time lows. This is due to the sharp drop of more than 20% after the company reported mixed earnings results and soft guidance for the second quarter (Q2).Has an opportunity opened up to buy Palantir stock at a discount?Figure 1: Palantir Stock: Should You Buy the Dip?Palantir's Earnings BloodbathOn the surface, Palantir's earnings numbers looked decent. Palantirreportedmixed Q1 results: While it missed its earnings per share estimates by 2 cents, the company reported revenues of $446.36 million — $2.85 million above expectations.Revenues grew 31% year over year (YoY), above the annual revenue guidance of 30% growth. Commercial U.S. revenues were the highligh,t growing 136% YoY. Operating margins showed an improvement of 14% compared to last quarter and 33% compared to the same quarter last year.The problem was that growth in its government business — Palantir’s most valuable segment — has been slowing down rapidly. Government revenue growth was below the company's target for the second consecutive quarter, at just 16% in Q1. In Q4, it grew only 26%.And there's nothing worse for a tech growth stock than to report a growth slowdown. The current revenue consensus for 2022 is 28.7%, below Palantir's annual growth guidance. The full-year 2022 margin guidance remains at 27%. However, little clarity has been given on how the company intends to achieve these numbers, as it has already started Q1 reporting 7% below.From the market's view, the outlook for Q2 was also disastrous. Palantir's management is expecting revenues of $470 million, which is only a 25% increase compared to Q2 last year. Investors are also disappointed by expected operating margins of 20%, indicating further declines from Q1, when margins were 26% — 3% lower than in Q4.Under Bear AttackThe current tone on Wall Street regarding Palantir is not the most optimistic. Right after earnings, Citi analyst Tyler Radke decreased his price target on Palantir from $10 to $7 while maintaining his sell recommendation.According to Radke, Palantir's underlying growth continued to weaken in the first quarter along with the lower beat on quarterly revenue estimates. Weak guidance below Wall Street estimates complete the bearish picture.Further, the analyst said that growth metrics when adjusted for SPAC revenue are still worse, with minimal growth in commercial agreements alongside incremental declines in total commercial business revenues.Another bear, Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick, also lowered his price target on Palantir from $15 to $11. The analyst is a critic of the company's lack of transparency to which the stock's compensation flatters profitability and limits the confidence in Palantir's long-term business.However, Zelnick acknowledges that there is room for Palantir to grow in the near term, but he remains skeptical about how sustainable that growth can be.The Bottom LinePalantir is a classic case of a long-term growth stock that has been hit hard by the current macroeconomic downturn. With the market in fear of a recession, growth stocks like Palantir that are still struggling to prove sustainable long-term growth profitability are naturally avoided by investors.However, the stock still cannot be considered cheap based on its current valuation, even though it has dropped significantly in recent months. Palantir trades at a P/E ratio of 62 times, which implies a difference of 255% to the broader IT sector.This high ratio is rightly attributed to the company's minimum annual growth target of 30% by 2025. And as the company proves unable to follow this trend, the negative market reaction should continue.The positive long-term outlook for Palantir is the growth of its commercial customers, equivalent to 86% YoY growth. However, it will take some time for revenue growth through new customers to be reflected. This might have important potential for an upside in the long run. But it is difficult to be more confident about what can actually be expected further down the road.Finally, the company's management reported that there is a large potential update in Palantir's guidance due to its role in responding to developing geopolitical events, such as the supply of military software in conflict developments from the Ukraine war. According to Palantir's CEO Alexander Karp, the company has spent nearly two decades preparing for the current moment.Therefore, I believe it makes sense only to invest in Palantir at the current share price for the long term. Palantir’s software technology is great, but there are many doubts regarding Palantir’s ability to maintain its government and commercial business growth rate based on its current valuation.There's no middle ground. Either Palantir shareholders who have patience will witness strong growth in the long run, or else the stock will plummet further until it reaches a valuation more in line with the sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064214617,"gmtCreate":1652325694739,"gmtModify":1676535079061,"author":{"id":"4090977076097080","authorId":"4090977076097080","name":"EmeraldRose6","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/48d0c18ef0dbcb1a5897aa8c5ff65232","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090977076097080","authorIdStr":"4090977076097080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064214617","repostId":"1194402488","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}