To The Moon

Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MANH) deep dive:Company OverviewThe company designs, builds and delivers supply chain commerce solutions globally. The company offers products through direct sales personnel and partnership agreements with various organizations. The company operates in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Company’s revenue centers around three main buckets – supply chain, omnichannel commerce, and inventory management. 3 products – OMS, TMS, WMS. Customers include Walmart, Loreal, Nike, and Home Depot. Expertise in apparel-based businesses such as Under Armour, Lululemon, Adidas, and Crocs.Business ModelSoftwareSoftware LicenseIndustryManhattan has been recognized as a leader in the Warehouse Management System Gartner Magic Quadrant for t

4. PAYC Set-up (-30% YTD) PAYC stock is down -55% in the past twelve months. In 3Q23, the company missed guidance for the first time in history and provided weak guidance for 2024 sales and EBITDA. In 4Q23, they beat earnings and topline guidance was in line with the street, but margin guidance came up short of consensus, sparking another sell-off. Latest 2024 guidance implies 10-12% y/y revenue growth and a -370bps contraction in EBITDA margin. Weakness in sales growth stems from two issues: (1) revenue cannibalization from Beti adoption, and (2) weak client net-adds. While these issues have presented about a 10-15% headwind to prior sales expectations, these effects are likely temporary, and we should soon see an inflection point where PAYC returns to higher

1. Executive Summary I am initiating coverage on Paycom with a BUY recommendation and a 1Y target price of $258 (209% IRR). The setup for Paycom is interesting – the stock is down ~30% YTD, with negative overhang stemming from 2 main issues, (1) revenue cannibalization headwinds, as well as (2) weak client net adds. These issues have introduced uncertainty around Paycom’s future growth, and the street is treating these as structural problems with the business. However, I believe that these are merely temporary headwinds that will soon abate, and we are likely near an inflection point where we will see Paycom return to its structural growth story. 2. Company Overview Paycom Software, Inc. (“Paycom”) is a leading provider of comprehensive, cloud-based human

Executive Summary 1.1. Introduction Fortinet is a cybersecurity company based in California and founded in 2000. Since then, it provides cybersecurity solutions for over 750,000 customers worldwide. I believe what makes Fortinet a good investment includes its products that are attractively-priced and effective, its integrated solutions that make cybersecurity management much easier, its potential through adapting to changes in the cybersecurity landscape alongside strong demand in the cybersecurity market. 1.2. Key Financials Fortinet has shown consistent improvement in its profitability margins. Its ROIC has also been improving consistently, meaning it has been able effectively invest for growth. However, its debt to equity ratio has been decreasing and became negative in 2023. Neverthele

Business Model Foundry Model: Unlike integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) like Intel, TSMC operates on a pure-play foundry model. This means it manufactures chips designed by other companies. This model allows it to serve a wide range of customers, including some of the biggest names in the tech industry. Its efficacy as foundry vis-à-vis its competitors has been discussed in the section ‘Competitor Analysis’. Customers: TSMC’s clientele includes major technology companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, and many others. These companies rely on TSMC for their cutting-edge chip manufacturing capabilities. By serving its clients, the rhetorical question of ,,How effective is TSMC helping its clients?’ deserves an answer Fig. 6 – Multiple Valuation plot of TSMC and its clients, accomp

Valuation Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) currently trades at ~FY2024 28.59x P/E, which is below to both the current industry average of 65x and the three-year industry average of 34.8x. Given that TSMC current valuation is below average in the cyclical industry of semiconductor foundry, a fair assessment would lead to an IRR of 2-11%, and by the compounding effect of time, leading to a three-year target price of NT$976.72 and a five-year target price of NT$1,591.31. As these high-floor prices are most likely to materialize due to Artificial Intelligence adoption and smartphone infiltration in society, it is right and just to dive into this rising tide that lifts all those technology boats. Company overview Established in 1987, TSMC was the world’s first dedicated semiconductor f

TSMC Logo and symbol, meaning, history, PNG Competitor Analysis TSMC crafted and maintained its market position by focusing its business model solely on the production of semiconductors. However, the semiconductor industry is very segmented with fabless companies designing the chipsets and foundries manufacturing the final product. While some companies choose to become IDMs to design and manufacture their own chips, TSMC decided not to manufacture any products under its own name, so that the company never engages in direct competition with its customers. The competition in the semiconductor foundry industry is fierce as TSMC competes with other foundry service providers and some Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs). However, as chip designs grew increasingly complex, requiring specialize

TSMC Logo and symbol, meaning, history, PNG Company Overview Established in 1987 and headquartered in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) was the pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model. Led by Morris Chang who revolutionized the semiconductor industry, TSMC's adoption of the foundry business model has been instrumental in shaping the global fabless industry, solidifying its position as a leading semiconductor foundry by providing American chip companies with cost-effective manufacturing solutions. This model is distinguished by its exclusive focus on manufacturing its customers' products, abstaining from designing, manufacturing, or marketing any semiconductor products under its own name. This deliberate choice ensures that TSMC never en

2） Gross profit margin, growth rate   -- Divided by regional income -- US market: Due to strong consumption power and high product pricing, the gross profit margin has been stable at about 68% for a long time. International Market: In contrast, the average product pricing in the international market is lower, and the gross profit margin is only maintained in the range of more than 40%. From 2015 to 2020, especially in major markets such as Europe and South America, the gross profit margin has declined year by year, mainly because the overseas market is still in the growth stage, and the company has to increase some promotional subsidies to develop the market. Overall: Overall, the company's gross profit margin remains between 50% -60%. From 2021 to 2022, the compan

1. Company Overview： Monster Beverage Corporation, formerly known as Hansen, is a Holding Company headquartered in Crona, California. It develops, promotes, sells, and distributes energy drinks through its subsidiaries. In 2002, it launched the Monster energy drink series and began transitioning from juice soda to energy drinks. The revenue streams are primarily divided into four operating and reportable segments: 1) Monster Energy Drink (91.81%): primarily sells ready-to-drink packaged energy drinks (RTD) to bottlers and full-service beverage distributors. 2) Strategic Brands (5.27%): primarily generates net operating income from the sale of concentrate or beverage base to authorized bottled and canned partners for the brand series eg, NOS, Throttlee, etc., which were exchanged from Coca-