To The Moon

TL;DR: Capital prevention required, diversification needed, monetary tightening and deleveraging continue, markets need time to adjust, and the world needs economic freedom 2022 was terrible for most investors. So naturally, everybody hopes that things will change for the better in 2023. However, there is no place for hope in the markets. If you want to succeed as an investor, you have to learn from what the market provides us with and continue to evolve. So yes, crystal ball projections are fun; we surely have ours. But learning and adjusting are what makes the difference for us investors. Last year, we wrote our 2022 Outlook. We developed 9 theses for the markets. Surprisingly, most of the

TL;DR: Capital protection continuesPortfolio: Performance flat in July, positive in AugustAllocation: FX (30%) and Cash (70%)Markets: Most asset classes remain under pressure Ongoing Capital ProtectionIf there is one table to remember, then this: The Fed has never stopped hiking before the Fed Fund Rate was above the CPI (Consumer Price index). U.S. rates are below 3%, and inflation is above 9%. There is still a massive delta between the two. If inflation does not come down quickly, there is still a long way to go for rates. 2022 will not be the year when the hiking cycle peaks. Source: Bianco Research In addition to rising rates, stocks are still expensive. There are many different indicators to measure how expensive or cheap stocks are. One famous one is the Buffett Indica

Allocation: Capital protection; Commodities + Gold + Cash Markets: The bear continues with no end in sight 2022 has been more than challenging for investors. The year's first half had the largest wealth loss in human history. I am not sure if we fully understand the long-term consequences of this. In times like these, you have to survive long enough to be prepared when growth returns. We need to protect cash from buying the generational lows when they come. Remember, capital preservation is everything in bear markets. Our Global Momentum portfolio remains in Commodities + Gold + Cash.More and more analysts see the global economy moving towards a recession. For example, Sequoia sees signs of a prolonged recession. It’s said, “We do not believe that this is going to be another steep correcti

While the MSCI World$MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ is down around -15% YTD and the Bloomberg aggregate Fixed Income Index lost more than -10% YTD, Commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index) are up 33% YTD. This shows how essential commodities are for a diversified, multi-asset portfolio. However, not only active asset allocation can generate alpha. Single name selection pays off as well. European Growth Stocks (MSCI Europe Growth Index) are down -18% YTD. At the same time, MSCI Europe High Divided Index gained almost 6% YTD. It is the highest level of dispersion we are seeing in a long time. Diversification paid with active management gets crucial again.CommoditiesCommodities remain strong, reaching new highs. This performance is mainly driven by Energy and to some e

TL;DR: - Current allocation: Long Commodities, Gold, U.S. Real Estate, and Cash - Strategy: Add alternative assets and strategies to save your portfolio Markets are in trouble  This is the worst start to the year for the S&P500 in decades. Bonds have the worst YTD performance in 30 years. Without exposure to alternative investments, the world remains very tricky for investors. Volatility is high which means the daily swings are increasing. Even a balanced 60/40 had the worst start in decades. But this might not be it. Inflation is approaching 8% while interest rates are still below 1%. This means we have not entered the cycle of rising rates. The first signs of liquidity leaving the system might just be the beginning. Source: Stockcharts.com From a technical perspective, all

For the next decade: Beating the market by replacing 60/40 allocation with diversification, private markets, and active managementThis time it’s different, isn’t it?“We are in a regime shift”, “this cycle is different”, and “the world is changing” seem to be the general sentiment when reading the financial press these days. Commentators urge investors to keep an “open mind”, hinting something big is about to happen. What remains unclear.Source: BloombergWhat’s clear, there are multiple challenges in today’s world: Average30y mortgage rate rise from 2.6% to 4.5% Crude oil prices have more than doubled, commodity prices are rising Inflation goes from “transitory” to 8% in the US and rising worldwide Fed go from lower rates for longer to 8 rate hikes Largest war in Europe since WW2 Stocks are