Gold collapsed on dollar rebound, with eyes on inflation data,WHAT IS THE NEXT?
@机构有话说:
Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec