To The Moon

Fundamental analysis(1) In the United States, ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline in May, while service PMI slowed down its expansion. In June, rate hike was suspended and expected to heat up.According to the data released on June 1st, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 46.9 in May, with the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 47. The ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States in May fell short of the expected downward trend. According to the data released on June 5, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 50.3 in May, with the previous value of 51.9 and the expected value of 52.3. The ISM service PMI of the United States fell short of expectations in June, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry slowed down. Acco

From the domestic macro point of view, it is still unsatisfactory at present, but the price decline has already priced in some negative factors in stages. Considering that the overall decline of other industrial metals has been very considerable, and many of them have fallen near the cost or reduced production, so the weak recovery may start to price towards the end of recovery, and the price will rebound.1. Review of COMEX copper market last weekCOMEX copper price fluctuated and rebounded last week, and the operating center of gravity moved up. The resolution of the debt ceiling problem has given the market some room to risk on, and risky assets have generally rebounded. The weaker economic data in Europe was priced in the previous price decline, while the economic data in the United Stat

Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

In Europe, the strike in France continues, but the upstream resource supply remains sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the market inventory turns from falling to rising, the natural gas market forms a situation of oversupply, and the market reserve gradually increases, which drives the TTF futures price down.The temperature in the United States has risen, the domestic temperature remains appropriate, the downstream demand remains weak, the export remains stable, and the futures price of NG in the United States remains low and volatile.Market profileAs of April 11, the futures price of natural gas (NG) in Henry Port of the United States was 2.186 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.08 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (04.05), an increase of 3.8%

Since November last year, There has been a strong rebound in gold prices at home and abroad, The driving force for the rebound of gold price comes from the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the nominal interest rate of the US dollar will fall at a high level. When inflation falls slowly, the real interest rate of the US dollar will also fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulates the rebound of gold investment demand. Geopolitical crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict also brought some safe-haven buying, which supported the rebound of gold prices. In addition, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates stronger than the Federal Reserve in the future, which will also lead to the weakening of the US dollar exchang

Since mid-January, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated again, with the maximum depreciation reaching 4.2% as of the close of February 27th. The main reason for the reversal of the appreciation momentum of RMB exchange rate before is that the economic growth between China and the United States is expected to be poor, that is, the risk of economic recession in the United States has not been fulfilled in the short term, while the strong recovery of China's economy has yet to be verified. In addition, inflation in the United States is stubborn, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will slow down or stop raising interest rates has been significantly reversed.Driven by the scissors difference between the downward interest rate caused by the release of liquidity

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

The fluctuation of European natural gas price caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. The United States is replacing Russia as the main energy supplier of the European Union, superimposing the popularization of European LNG infrastructure construction, and the framework of European natural gas de-Russianization has basically taken shape, making the contradiction between supply and demand in European and American markets have improved, and European natural gas prices have continued to fall​LNG consumption in Europe may be released in summerFor most areas, the demand for natural gas is usually high in winter, which is the peak of natural gas use because it is used to heat houses and buildings. As the temperature drops, people usually turn on the heating, which increases the de

1. weekly performance of major US stock index futuresIn the past week, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution and economic data, the market showed a trend of rising first and then declining. The futures of the three major stock indexes closed up, and the mini Nasdaq index was among the top gainers. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, which stimulated the optimistic expectation of the follow-up Fed to speed up the end of the interest rate hike cycle. However, the strong employment data dispelled the positive attitude of the market and deepened hawkish concerns, and US stocks were under pressure in the second half of the week. Specifically, from January 30 to 31, the market was mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate r

Last week, the regular meeting of the State Council once again stated that liquidity tools should be used to stabilize economic growth in a timely manner, and the market showed certain expectations for RRR reduction. Therefore, we can see that although the pressure of epidemic prevention and control in China is increasing recently, the prices of most industrial products, including copper prices, are firm, and it seems that most areas are not affected by the epidemic. At the same time, although domestic refined copper stocks have accumulated, they are still at a relatively low level. We think that the next game is between expectation and reality. The difference is that the expectation turns stronger and the reality turns weaker. The strong expectation mainly comes from the liberalization of