To The Moon

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2309(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ Crude oil released from SPR was 1.4m bbls for the week ending June 23/23. ~23m bbls done, ~3m bbls to go.ImageCrude oil released from SPR was 1.7m bbls for the week ending June 16/23. ~21.6m bbls done, ~4.4m bbls to go.ImageIt seems like it has been forever since we have seen a strong green day in the US and Canadian O&G space. Let's see if we can build on this.Image

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ Would be nice to see crude jump back above $70.YTD performance of energy, grains, and livestock commodities. Cattle of course is out of this world.ImageDividend payout and CAPEX as % of FCF and Operating CF respectively. Assumptions used: $70 WTI, $3 HH, -$13 WCS Diffs. and $15 TTF. one is as a % of FCF and the other is as a % of OCFImage

The energy sector has been really struggling this year, the only sector down double-digit. On the other hand, it is the only sector green since Jan 1/2022.$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$

I am not a fan of diversification. I believe that through diversification you can't consistently beat the market over the long term. I invest in 2-3 sectors and 2-3 stocks in each sector. My approach is simple: I do top-down analysis, find the most undervalued sectors then go all in (well almost) in 1-3 stocks in those sectors. Of course, the downside is, if I am wrong then it will hurt. In 2021 and 2022 I was 100% and ~90% all energy respectively. This year my energy exposure has been anywhere between 15%-25%. It has been a drag on my overall portfolio, however since my portfolio was over 50% in META $Meta Platforms(META)$ (now about 35%), I am doing fine. As 1st half of 2023 is coming to an end, I increased my energy exposure to ~25% as I believ

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2308(BZmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ Crude oil, gasoline, and jet fuel stocks change two weeks into the driving season.ImageYTD (through 24 weeks) crude oil demand/supply breakdown compared to previous years.ImageA slightly bullish report but nothing to be excited about. YTD commercial crude inventories are up ~42.7m bbls, while big 4 products are down ~ 2.7m bbls.ImageHow most think it's a demand problem when it is clearly a supply problem. The implied product demand for the we

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ -Cracks are still very, very strong. -Refinery throughput is highest in the last 4 years. -Implied product demand keeps improving with both gasoline and jet fuel demand sitting comfortably above last year. Yet, it's a demand problem! Oki.Natty production has dropped below 100 bcf/d for the 1st time since Feb 10/23.ImageOn the other hand, LNG exports look 🤮ImageLNG bulls better hope for high LNG prices for these projections to pay outImagePrice assumptions for different scenarios.Image

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$ WTI levels remain intact. Bulls need a clear break above the $74 area to set up the next move higher towards $80ish.Gasoline 2.935m Distillates -0.301m Cushing 0.05mImageHow is it a demand problem when cracks are as strong as ever with below $70 WTI? Yeah, crude time spreads look weak but to me, that has more to do with short-term oversupply than anything else.Image

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2308(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2308(QMmain)$How is it a demand problem when cracks are as strong as ever with below $70 WTI? Yeah, crude time spreads look weak but to me, that has more to do with short-term oversupply than anything else.ImageSince September 10/2021, crude oil released from SPR averaged ~417k bbls/d. That would rank as the 32nd highest crude oil-producing country in the world.Crude oil released from SPR was 1.7m bbls for the week ending June 16/23. ~21.6m bbls done, ~4.4m bbls to go. ImageCrude oil stocks in SPR are now down ~376.6m bbls from their ATH.

S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ sector performances in the last 3.5 years with and without dividends$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $Health

Updated S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ sector returns. Tech is almost back being flat since Jan 1/2022. We need more balanced buying moving forward, which means some rotation out of big boys into quality smaller players.$Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLRE)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$