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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2023-03-30
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The "real murderer" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy
危机之下，恐慌情绪往往会被无限放大。当前，欧洲万亿银行巨头——德意志银行离奇闪崩的“真凶”，逐渐浮出水面。当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发
The "real murderer" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-18
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-15
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-14
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The virtual fire was too strong! PC demand collapses, and chips suffer
第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供
The virtual fire was too strong! PC demand collapses, and chips suffer
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-11
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-09
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Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy "lose" for three decades?
7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy "lose" for three decades?
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-07
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Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts that the United States may be in full recession next year
美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议的纪要文件。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。
Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts that the United States may be in full recession next year
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
·
2022-07-06
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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks
摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位
Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-04
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Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million
这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都
Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-02
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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941873909","repostId":"2323273475","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323273475","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1680140064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323273475?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323273475","media":"券商中国","summary":"危机之下，恐慌情绪往往会被无限放大。当前，欧洲万亿银行巨头——德意志银行离奇闪崩的“真凶”，逐渐浮出水面。当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Under a crisis, panic is often infinitely amplified.</p><p>Currently, European trillion-dollar banking giants-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The \"real murderer\" of the bizarre flash crash gradually surfaced. On March 28, local time, many European regulatory agencies believed that a related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The credit default swap (CDS) transaction triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank stocks and even the European banking industry last Friday, which once caused the market value of the index tracking European bank stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan).</p><p><strong>In addition, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have also been revealed. On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank A total of US $142 billion (approximately RMB 1,058.2 billion) flowed out within two days.</strong></p><p>It is worth mentioning that activist investors on Wall Street are currently aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>The net subscription amount of regional bank ETFs in the United States reached US $236.2 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion), a record high.</p><p><strong>220 billion \"tragedy\"</strong></p><p>On March 28, local time, many European regulators believed that a transaction related to Deutsche Bank's credit default swap (CDS) triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank's stock and even the European banking industry last Friday.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, a bet of about 5 million euros (about 37.35 million yuan) on a swap transaction related to Deutsche Bank's subordinated debt may be the chief culprit of the \"Deutsche Bank panic\". Regulators have communicated with market participants about this transaction. Such contracts are usually illiquid, and at a time when market confidence is lacking, any disturbance may cause a huge shock.</strong></p><p>On the 24th local time, Deutsche Bank's European stocks suddenly staged a flash crash, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 15%, the largest intraday drop since March 2002, which even worried the market that it would experience a new round of \"life and death weekend\" in the banking industry, which also caused the market value of the index tracking European banking stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan) instantly.</p><p>Behind a 5 million CDS transaction that destroyed the market value of 30 billion euros is the market's panic psychology about the European banking industry.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, so far, there is no evidence of any wrongdoing in this CDS transaction, and some data suggest that this transaction may be to hedge risks.</strong></p><p>CDS is a derivative contract. Investors use CDS to hedge their investments or bet on changes in corporate creditworthiness. The surge in CDS prices may reflect widespread anxiety about the banking system, as well as turmoil in riskier European bank debt.</p><p>Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS soared from less than 100 basis points two weeks ago to more than 200 basis points last Friday. Market interpretation believes that following the collapse of three U.S. banks and the explosion of Credit Suisse, the German banking giant may be the next financial institution under pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ac443dad1a4ea8bd5abbdb8ddfb159\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that as of the end of 2022, Deutsche Bank's total assets exceeded 1.3 trillion euros. It is a century-old European bank and one of the 30 global systemically important banks recognized by global banking regulators.</p><p>At present, Europe's top regulator is calling for stricter scrutiny of CDS.</p><p>Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Central Bank's supervisory board, said that \"opaque\" credit default swap (CDS) trading is hurting bank share prices and may even lead to a massive run on banks. It is very worrying that only a few million euros of transactions can crush a bank with trillions of euros of assets.</p><p>Enria further pointed out that the CDS market is \"very opaque and very illiquid\" and that the CDS market should \"improve transparency\" by changing all transactions to clearing by a central counterparty, which is reviewed by the Global Financial Stability Board.</p><p><strong>2-day run on 1 trillion</strong></p><p>At the same time, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have gradually been revealed.</p><p>On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank The bank had a total outflow of US $142 billion (approximately more than RMB 1 trillion) within two days.</p><p>Michael Barr further said that Fed staff worked around the clock on March 9, trying to find enough collateral to borrow billions more from the Fed's discount window to meet withdrawal requests. They raised as much money as they could until the morning of March 10, but then encountered a larger withdrawal.</p><p>During the hearing, Michael Barr revealed that Federal Reserve banking regulators have been in close and repeated contact with Silicon Valley Bank executives for nearly a year to warn of high interest rates and liquidity risks.</p><p><strong>According to the testimony, Fed regulators issued six warnings \"near the end of 2021,\" and two more in May 2022. But the bank \"failed to address\" the Fed's concerns in a timely manner.</strong></p><p>At this hearing, senior officials from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) all hinted that there would be changes in banking regulations, and stricter new capital and liquidity regulations were coming. Barr said he expected banks with more than $100 billion in assets to \"need to strengthen their capital and liquidity standards\".</p><p><strong>Rare big bargain hunting</strong></p><p>Risks rise and opportunities fall.</p><p>After the complete release of the U.S. banking crisis, activist investors on Wall Street are aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks, the net subscription amount of iShares U.S. regional bank ETF reached US $236.2 million, a record high.</p><p><strong>The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a collapse in the U.S. banking industry. The ETF has fallen nearly 26% since the Silicon Valley Bank explosion on March 8.</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92d5620d65b4d33948356a46e0e32f8\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Some fund managers believe that after this rare large-scale sell-off, a large number of high-quality \"bargains\" have appeared in the market. Banks relatively far from the epicenter of the storm also suffered a 20%-plus plunge, so valuations of those banks have improved substantially, said Hunter Doble, portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley.</p><p>Doble's current holdings include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>Inc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>The stocks of large regional banks, including the former, fell by 22% during the year, and the latter by about 18% during the year.</p><p>Christopher Marinac, head of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, also believes that the balance sheets of U.S. regional banks are stronger than market expectations, and he further recommends buy West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>United Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYCB\">New York Community Bank</a>, and gave reasons that the loan loss reserve ratio of the banking industry has increased from 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to the latest estimate of 1.12%.</p><p>At the same time, there are various signs that the probability of effectively controlling the banking crisis in the United States is increasing. Among them, First Citizens Bank has promised to acquire Silicon Valley Bank; U.S. authorities are also considering expanding an emergency loan facility to provide more support to banks.</p><p>On March 28, local time, U.S. President Biden stated that the crisis involving U.S. regional banks is easing, and he has done everything possible to use existing institutions to solve the crisis, although the crisis is \"not over yet.\"</p><p><strong>However, it should be pointed out that at present, the risks of U.S. bank stocks have not been completely alleviated, especially for small and medium-sized banks. A large number of depositors have transferred their deposits to big banks, and some depositors have even directly transferred their deposits to short-term U.S. Treasury Bond, money market funds and other assets.</strong></p><p>According to data released Monday by data provider EPFR, more than $286 billion has flowed into money market funds since March this year, the largest since the epidemic.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-30 09:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Under a crisis, panic is often infinitely amplified.</p><p>Currently, European trillion-dollar banking giants-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The \"real murderer\" of the bizarre flash crash gradually surfaced. On March 28, local time, many European regulatory agencies believed that a related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The credit default swap (CDS) transaction triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank stocks and even the European banking industry last Friday, which once caused the market value of the index tracking European bank stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan).</p><p><strong>In addition, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have also been revealed. On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank A total of US $142 billion (approximately RMB 1,058.2 billion) flowed out within two days.</strong></p><p>It is worth mentioning that activist investors on Wall Street are currently aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>The net subscription amount of regional bank ETFs in the United States reached US $236.2 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion), a record high.</p><p><strong>220 billion \"tragedy\"</strong></p><p>On March 28, local time, many European regulators believed that a transaction related to Deutsche Bank's credit default swap (CDS) triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank's stock and even the European banking industry last Friday.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, a bet of about 5 million euros (about 37.35 million yuan) on a swap transaction related to Deutsche Bank's subordinated debt may be the chief culprit of the \"Deutsche Bank panic\". Regulators have communicated with market participants about this transaction. Such contracts are usually illiquid, and at a time when market confidence is lacking, any disturbance may cause a huge shock.</strong></p><p>On the 24th local time, Deutsche Bank's European stocks suddenly staged a flash crash, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 15%, the largest intraday drop since March 2002, which even worried the market that it would experience a new round of \"life and death weekend\" in the banking industry, which also caused the market value of the index tracking European banking stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan) instantly.</p><p>Behind a 5 million CDS transaction that destroyed the market value of 30 billion euros is the market's panic psychology about the European banking industry.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, so far, there is no evidence of any wrongdoing in this CDS transaction, and some data suggest that this transaction may be to hedge risks.</strong></p><p>CDS is a derivative contract. Investors use CDS to hedge their investments or bet on changes in corporate creditworthiness. The surge in CDS prices may reflect widespread anxiety about the banking system, as well as turmoil in riskier European bank debt.</p><p>Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS soared from less than 100 basis points two weeks ago to more than 200 basis points last Friday. Market interpretation believes that following the collapse of three U.S. banks and the explosion of Credit Suisse, the German banking giant may be the next financial institution under pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ac443dad1a4ea8bd5abbdb8ddfb159\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that as of the end of 2022, Deutsche Bank's total assets exceeded 1.3 trillion euros. It is a century-old European bank and one of the 30 global systemically important banks recognized by global banking regulators.</p><p>At present, Europe's top regulator is calling for stricter scrutiny of CDS.</p><p>Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Central Bank's supervisory board, said that \"opaque\" credit default swap (CDS) trading is hurting bank share prices and may even lead to a massive run on banks. It is very worrying that only a few million euros of transactions can crush a bank with trillions of euros of assets.</p><p>Enria further pointed out that the CDS market is \"very opaque and very illiquid\" and that the CDS market should \"improve transparency\" by changing all transactions to clearing by a central counterparty, which is reviewed by the Global Financial Stability Board.</p><p><strong>2-day run on 1 trillion</strong></p><p>At the same time, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have gradually been revealed.</p><p>On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank The bank had a total outflow of US $142 billion (approximately more than RMB 1 trillion) within two days.</p><p>Michael Barr further said that Fed staff worked around the clock on March 9, trying to find enough collateral to borrow billions more from the Fed's discount window to meet withdrawal requests. They raised as much money as they could until the morning of March 10, but then encountered a larger withdrawal.</p><p>During the hearing, Michael Barr revealed that Federal Reserve banking regulators have been in close and repeated contact with Silicon Valley Bank executives for nearly a year to warn of high interest rates and liquidity risks.</p><p><strong>According to the testimony, Fed regulators issued six warnings \"near the end of 2021,\" and two more in May 2022. But the bank \"failed to address\" the Fed's concerns in a timely manner.</strong></p><p>At this hearing, senior officials from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) all hinted that there would be changes in banking regulations, and stricter new capital and liquidity regulations were coming. Barr said he expected banks with more than $100 billion in assets to \"need to strengthen their capital and liquidity standards\".</p><p><strong>Rare big bargain hunting</strong></p><p>Risks rise and opportunities fall.</p><p>After the complete release of the U.S. banking crisis, activist investors on Wall Street are aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks, the net subscription amount of iShares U.S. regional bank ETF reached US $236.2 million, a record high.</p><p><strong>The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a collapse in the U.S. banking industry. The ETF has fallen nearly 26% since the Silicon Valley Bank explosion on March 8.</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92d5620d65b4d33948356a46e0e32f8\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Some fund managers believe that after this rare large-scale sell-off, a large number of high-quality \"bargains\" have appeared in the market. Banks relatively far from the epicenter of the storm also suffered a 20%-plus plunge, so valuations of those banks have improved substantially, said Hunter Doble, portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley.</p><p>Doble's current holdings include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>Inc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>The stocks of large regional banks, including the former, fell by 22% during the year, and the latter by about 18% during the year.</p><p>Christopher Marinac, head of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, also believes that the balance sheets of U.S. regional banks are stronger than market expectations, and he further recommends buy West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>United Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYCB\">New York Community Bank</a>, and gave reasons that the loan loss reserve ratio of the banking industry has increased from 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to the latest estimate of 1.12%.</p><p>At the same time, there are various signs that the probability of effectively controlling the banking crisis in the United States is increasing. Among them, First Citizens Bank has promised to acquire Silicon Valley Bank; U.S. authorities are also considering expanding an emergency loan facility to provide more support to banks.</p><p>On March 28, local time, U.S. President Biden stated that the crisis involving U.S. regional banks is easing, and he has done everything possible to use existing institutions to solve the crisis, although the crisis is \"not over yet.\"</p><p><strong>However, it should be pointed out that at present, the risks of U.S. bank stocks have not been completely alleviated, especially for small and medium-sized banks. A large number of depositors have transferred their deposits to big banks, and some depositors have even directly transferred their deposits to short-term U.S. Treasury Bond, money market funds and other assets.</strong></p><p>According to data released Monday by data provider EPFR, more than $286 billion has flowed into money market funds since March this year, the largest since the epidemic.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ef3608878142de83f534f9c79a3fdf","relate_stocks":{"DB":"德意志银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323273475","content_text":"危机之下，恐慌情绪往往会被无限放大。当前，欧洲万亿银行巨头——德意志银行离奇闪崩的“真凶”，逐渐浮出水面。当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发了上周五德银股票乃至欧洲银行业遭遇的凶猛抛售，一度导致追踪欧洲银行股的指数市值蒸发超300亿欧元（约合人民币2200亿元）。另外，关于硅谷银行轰然倒塌的更多细节也被披露出来。当地时间3月28日，美联储负责监管的副主席Michael Barr在美国参议院银行委员会作证时表示，宣告破产当天（当地时间3月10日），硅谷银行遭遇的挤兑高达1000亿美元，这使得该银行在两天内共计流出了1420亿美元（约合人民币10582亿元）。值得一提的是，目前华尔街的激进投资者正在大举抄底基本面强劲的地区性银行股票。数据显示，过去两周内，iShares美国地区性银行ETF获净申购金额达到2.362亿美元（约合人民币18亿元），创出历史最高纪录。2200亿的“惨案”当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发了上周五德银股票乃至欧洲银行业遭遇的凶猛抛售。据知情人士透露，一笔约500万欧元（约合人民币3735万元）押注于与德银次级债相关的互换交易，可能是导致“德银恐慌”的罪魁祸首，监管机构已跟市场参与者们沟通过这笔交易。此类合约通常缺乏流动性，在市场信心缺失之际，任何风吹草动都可能引发巨震。当地时间24日，德意志银行的欧股突然上演闪崩，盘中最大跌幅近15%，创2002年3月以来的最大盘中跌幅，甚至令市场担忧，又将经历新一轮银行业的“生死周末”，这也导致追踪欧洲银行股的指数市值瞬间蒸发超300亿欧元（约合人民币2200亿元）。一笔500万的CDS交易打掉300亿欧元市值的背后是，市场对欧洲银行业的恐慌性心理。知情人士称，到目前为止，还没有证据表明，这笔CDS交易有任何不法行为，一些数据表明，这一交易可能是为了对冲风险。CDS是一种衍生品合约，投资者用CDS来对冲自己的投资，或用来对企业信用度的变化进行押注。CDS价格的飙升可能反映了对银行系统的普遍焦虑情绪，以及风险较大的欧洲银行债务的动荡。德银的五年期CDS从两周前的不到100个基点一度飙升至上周五的逾200个基点，市场解读认为，继三家美国银行倒闭和瑞信爆雷后，这只德国银行巨头可能是下一家面临压力的金融机构。值得一提的是，截至2022年底，德意志银行总资产规模超过1.3万亿欧元，是一家拥有百年历史的欧洲银行，也是全球银行业监管机构认定的30家全球系统重要性银行之一。当前，欧洲最高监管机构正在呼吁对CDS进行更为严格的审查。欧洲央行监事会主席Andrea Enria表示，“不透明”的信用违约互换(CDS)交易正在损害银行股价，甚至可能导致银行遭到大规模挤兑。只要有几百万欧元的交易，就可以击垮一家拥有万亿欧元资产的银行，这令人非常担忧。Enria进一步指出，CDS市场“非常不透明且流动性非常差”，CDS市场应该将全部交易改由中央对手方清算，从而“提高透明度”，并由全球金融稳定委员会(Financial Stability Board)进行审查。2天挤兑10000亿与此同时，关于硅谷银行轰然倒塌的更多细节也逐渐披露出来。当地时间3月28日，美联储负责监管的副主席Michael Barr在美国参议院银行委员会作证时表示，在宣告破产当天（当地时间3月10日），硅谷银行遭遇的挤兑高达1000亿美元，这使得该银行在两天内共计流出了1420亿美元（约合人民币超10000亿元）。Michael Barr进一步表示，美联储工作人员在3月9日夜以继日地工作，试图寻找足够的抵押品，从美联储的贴现窗口再借入数十亿美元以满足提现请求。直到3月10日上午，他们筹集了尽可能多的资金，但随后遭遇了更大规模的提款。在听证会上，Michael Barr透露，近一年以来，美联储银行监管机构一直与硅谷银行高管保持密切和反复的联系，以警告高利率和流动性风险。根据证词，美联储监管机构在“接近2021年底”发布了六次警告，在2022年5月又发布了两次警告。但该银行“未能及时解决”美联储的担忧。在这场听证会上，美联储、财政部和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的高官都暗示，银行业监管规定将会有改变，更严格的资本和流动性新规将至。Barr称，他预计资产超过1000亿美元的银行将“需要强化资本和流动性的标准”。罕见大抄底风险是涨出来的，机会是跌出来的。在美国银行业危机彻底释放后，华尔街的激进投资者正在大举抄底基本面强劲的地区性银行股票。数据显示，过去两周内，iShares美国地区性银行ETF获净申购金额达到2.362亿美元，创出历史最高纪录。硅谷银行的骤然倒闭，引发了美国银行业的大溃败。自3月8日硅谷银行爆雷以来，该ETF已经下跌了近26%。部分基金经理认为，这一轮罕见的大规模抛售过后，市场出现了大量优质的“便宜货”。Hotchkis & Wiley投资组合经理Hunter Doble表示，相对远离风暴中心的银行也遭遇了20%以上的暴跌，因此这些银行的估值有了实质性改善。Doble目前持有包括Citizens Financial Group Inc、美国合众银行在内的大型地区性银行的股票，前者股价年内跌幅达22%，后者年内下跌约18%。Janney Montgomery Scott研究主管Christopher Marinac也认为，美国地区性银行的资产负债表比市场预期的更强劲，其进一步建议，买入西太平洋合众银行、纽约社区银行，并给出理由称，银行业的贷款损失准备金率已经从2019年第四季度的0.92%上升到了最新预估的1.12%。同时，种种迹象表明，美国银行业危机得到有效控制的概率正在增加。其中，第一公民银行已经承诺收购硅谷银行；美国当局也正在考虑扩大一项紧急贷款安排，为银行提供更多支持。当地时间3月28日，美国总统拜登表示，涉及美国区域银行的危机正在缓解，他已尽一切可能，利用现有机构来解决危机，虽然这场危机眼下“尚未结束”。但需要指出的是，目前美股银行股的风险尚未完全缓解，尤其是对中小型银行而言，大量储户已经将存款转移到大银行，部分储户甚至直接将存款转而投资于短期美国国债、货币市场基金等资产。据数据提供商EPFR周一公布的数据显示，今年3月以来，已有超过2860亿美元的资金流入货币市场基金，创疫情以来最大纪录。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075976867,"gmtCreate":1658139094159,"gmtModify":1676536111075,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075976867","repostId":"1149776860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076675613,"gmtCreate":1657847374832,"gmtModify":1676536071563,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076675613","repostId":"2251017787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076060107,"gmtCreate":1657761118309,"gmtModify":1676536057706,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076060107","repostId":"1166021735","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166021735","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1657681289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166021735?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-13 11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The virtual fire was too strong! PC demand collapses, and chips suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166021735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron's downbeat forecast. The consumption boom of electronic equipment since the epidemic is fading, and the shortage of chip supply that has lasted for more than two years is turning to surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by Gartner Inc., an information technology research company, showed that global demand for personal computers fell sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year and the biggest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, head of research at Gartner, said the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending and a sharp decline in demand for Google's web notebook ChromeBook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., showed that global equipment shipments fell about 15.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier.</p><p>Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC, said recession fears continue to mount, weakening demand across sectors. However, he also noted that overall shipments remain above pre-pandemic levels despite recent declines in demand.</p><p><b>Gartner and IDC both say that the top three PC vendors in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments all declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>According to Gartner, U.S. PC demand fell 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is the winter coming for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the epidemic, in order to adapt to the entertainment needs of remote work and distance education, as well as home isolation, the consumption of electronic devices has surged, but in recent months, there are increasing signs that this trend has changed.</p><p>In May, several PC makers, including Hewlett-Packard and Dell, warned that consumer demand for PCs was waning, especially for lower-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become \"very chaotic\" and that the company would look to adjust spending and investments to that reality. In June, Intel temporarily froze hiring at its PC chip unit and introduced other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip makers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell well below expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets, computers and smartphones. Although the expression used by Micron executives when describing future demand is \"somewhat weakened\", judging from specific figures, demand in the chip industry may have experienced a cliff-like decline.</p><p>As U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned,<b>More bad news to come following Micron's downbeat forecast.</b></p><p>The market environment has deteriorated, and the wave of semiconductor order cuts has also spread. However, Wall Street News previously mentioned that,<b>Although the semiconductor market has stopped growing rapidly in the past two years, there are still structured opportunities in the entire industry.</b></p><p>While the demand for traditional electronic products is shrinking, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has the momentum to continue to grow. Comparing the situation of semiconductor chip factories,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at historically low levels, which also verifies the structured performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductor, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone manufacturers, are basically doomed to \"doom\", while companies that provide chips for automotive and data centers will continue to perform well.</p><p>But Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon has a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He noted that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and continue to do so. It becomes even more true when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The virtual fire was too strong! PC demand collapses, and chips suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe virtual fire was too strong! PC demand collapses, and chips suffer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-13 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron's downbeat forecast. The consumption boom of electronic equipment since the epidemic is fading, and the shortage of chip supply that has lasted for more than two years is turning to surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by Gartner Inc., an information technology research company, showed that global demand for personal computers fell sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year and the biggest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, head of research at Gartner, said the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending and a sharp decline in demand for Google's web notebook ChromeBook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., showed that global equipment shipments fell about 15.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier.</p><p>Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC, said recession fears continue to mount, weakening demand across sectors. However, he also noted that overall shipments remain above pre-pandemic levels despite recent declines in demand.</p><p><b>Gartner and IDC both say that the top three PC vendors in the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett Packard</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments all declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>According to Gartner, U.S. PC demand fell 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is the winter coming for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the epidemic, in order to adapt to the entertainment needs of remote work and distance education, as well as home isolation, the consumption of electronic devices has surged, but in recent months, there are increasing signs that this trend has changed.</p><p>In May, several PC makers, including Hewlett-Packard and Dell, warned that consumer demand for PCs was waning, especially for lower-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become \"very chaotic\" and that the company would look to adjust spending and investments to that reality. In June, Intel temporarily froze hiring at its PC chip unit and introduced other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip makers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell well below expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets, computers and smartphones. Although the expression used by Micron executives when describing future demand is \"somewhat weakened\", judging from specific figures, demand in the chip industry may have experienced a cliff-like decline.</p><p>As U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned,<b>More bad news to come following Micron's downbeat forecast.</b></p><p>The market environment has deteriorated, and the wave of semiconductor order cuts has also spread. However, Wall Street News previously mentioned that,<b>Although the semiconductor market has stopped growing rapidly in the past two years, there are still structured opportunities in the entire industry.</b></p><p>While the demand for traditional electronic products is shrinking, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has the momentum to continue to grow. Comparing the situation of semiconductor chip factories,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at historically low levels, which also verifies the structured performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductor, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone manufacturers, are basically doomed to \"doom\", while companies that provide chips for automotive and data centers will continue to perform well.</p><p>But Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon has a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He noted that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and continue to do so. It becomes even more true when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","PC":"Premium Catering (Holdings) Ltd."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166021735","content_text":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供应短缺正转向过剩。信息科技研究公司Gartner Inc.近日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度全球个人电脑需求大幅下降，电脑制造商在4月至6月间的出货量为7200万台，较去年同期下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。Gartner 研究主管Mikako Kitagawa表示，由于俄乌冲突导致的持续地缘政治不稳定、支出方面的通胀压力以及对谷歌网络笔记本ChromeBook的需求急剧下降，自第一季度以来出现的需求下降在第二季度加速。另一家机构International Data Corp.的数据显示，第二季度全球设备出货量同比下降了约15.3%。IDC研究经理Jitesh Ubrani表示，对衰退的担忧继续加剧，削弱了各个领域的需求。不过，他也指出，尽管最近需求有所下降，但总体出货量仍高于疫情前水平。Gartner和IDC均表示，全球前三大个人电脑供应商联想集团、惠普和戴尔第二季度的发货量均有所下降。Gartner的数据显示，美国个人电脑需求下降了17.5%，主要原因是ChromeBook出货量下降了50%。芯片业寒冬将至？疫情期间，为了适应远程工作和远程教育，以及宅家隔离的娱乐需求，对电子设备的消费大增，但近几个月来，越来越多迹象显示，这种趋势发生了变化。今年5月，惠普和戴尔等几家个人电脑制造商警告称，消费者对个人电脑的需求正在减弱，尤其是对低价产品的需求。英特尔首席财务官David Zinsner今年6月表示，今年下半年的前景变得“非常混乱”，该公司将寻求调整支出和投资以适应这一现实。今年6月，英特尔暂时冻结了其个人电脑芯片部门的招聘，并采取了其他紧缩措施。上个月底，内存芯片制造商美光科技发布第四季度业绩指引远低于预期，反映出电脑和智能手机两个关键市场的放缓。虽然美光高管在描述未来需求时所用的表述是“有所减弱”，但从具体数字来看，芯片行业的需求或已出现了断崖式下降。随着美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，TechInsights芯片分析师Dan Hutcheson警告称，继美光发布悲观预测后，还会有更多坏消息传来。市场环境恶化，半导体砍单潮也随之蔓延。不过，华尔街见闻此前提及，虽然半导体市场过去两年的高增不再，但整个行业内仍存在结构化的机会。在传统电子产品需求萎缩之际，新能源车用半导体领域仍有继续增长的动力。对比半导体芯片厂的情况，意法半导体、恩智浦、德州仪器等车用半导体公司的存货周转天数仍处于历史低位，这也同样验证了车用半导体领域的结构化表现。研究公司Baird半导体高级分析师Tristan Gerra也表示，消费电子产品制造商，尤其是低端智能手机制造商的芯片大供应商基本上注定“难逃厄运”，而提供汽车和数据中心芯片的公司将继续表现优秀。但Bernstein分析师Stacy Rasgon对汽车芯片的前景持有不同观点。他指出，汽车制造商订购的芯片远远超过了他们的需求，而且还在继续这样做。当汽车制造商停止购买时，情况就会变得更加真实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"PC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079377928,"gmtCreate":1657154819264,"gmtModify":1676535959965,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079377928","repostId":"2249822546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249822546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657143383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249822546?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 05:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts that the United States may be in full recession next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249822546","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议的纪要文件。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is predicted that the United States will fall into a technical recession in Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b><b>2. Fed meeting minutes: \"More restrictive\" policies may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down</b><b>3. The United States and allies are exploring limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to US $40-60</b><b>4. Market forecast expert Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b><b>5. The European Parliament voted to \"green label\" natural gas and nuclear energy</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted that they may rate hike at a faster pace to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is predicted that the United States will fall into a technical recession in Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank said the likelihood of weaknesses in parts of the U.S. economy spreading to the still-strong labor market and services is rising, which will cause job losses and make it more difficult for the Fed to fight inflation.</p><p>Economists at Deutsche Bank now expect U.S. GDP to shrink at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean a second consecutive quarter of economic contraction, thus plunging the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect growth for the full year, at 0.6%, and a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank said that the indicator used to calculate quarterly GDP-final sales to domestic buyers-will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>\"Although this doesn't mean a recession is just around the corner, historically, there have not been many cases where final sales growth has declined so much without the economy falling into recession,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research note.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have lowered their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Fed minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed officials emphasized the need to fight inflation at the meeting, even if it meant slowing down an economy already on the brink of recession.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting showed that most Fed officials believe that the risks to economic growth are biased downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Fed may adopt \"more restrictive\" policies.</p><p>\"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needs to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that if inflationary pressures continue to rise, a more restrictive policy stance may be appropriate,\" the minutes said.</p><p>The minutes showed officials were \"highly concerned\" about inflation risks and it could take some time to bring inflation down to 2%. Many officials worry that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that policy tightening could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. and allies discuss limiting Russian crude oil prices to $40-$60</b></p><p>The United States and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude to around $40 to $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Discussions began before the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russia's oil revenue while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At the summit held in Germany on June 28, leaders agreed to study options to limit oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products, unless the selling price is lower than its prescribed level.</p><p>People familiar with the matter said that the range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low, two people familiar with the matter said. The allies aim to cut Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that if the measures are not implemented well, oil prices will soar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market forecast expert Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warned that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"stupid.\"</p><p>\"The stock market is used to sell on rallies, not to buy,\" the chairman of the University of Akron endowment said Tuesday. \"In another three, four, five or six months, this situation may change. The average duration of bear markets tends to be close to a year. How much more the stock market can fall is only a guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published the influential \"The Gartman Letter\", has been bearish on the stock market for several months. In January, he said the stock market could face a decline of as much as 15% in 2022, and he cut the weight of stocks in college funds by 12%-15% on Dec. 31. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman said the Fed's plan to \"further raise the overnight lending rate by 75-125 basis points\" after three rate hike this year will plunge the U.S. economy into recession, even if the severe inflation that has driven its tightening policy begins to slow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>European Parliament votes for'green labeling 'gas and nuclear</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th saying that after voting, the European Parliament supported the relevant bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation to address climate change.</p><p>If the EU Council does not raise objections before July 11, the bill will officially come into effect on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities for reference by member countries in investment, taxation and management. The European Commission adopted a supplementary delegated act to the regulation in February this year, classifying natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions as sustainable economic activities, and stipulating technical screening and emission standards for corresponding projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects need to meet nuclear safety and environmental safety requirements, and natural gas must help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized it for \"greenwashing\" fossil energy and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in tackling climate change. Supporters argue that refusing to label \"green\" natural gas and nuclear energy will lead to further increases in energy prices and make it more difficult for people to get rid of dependence on fossil energy sources such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials hint at a faster rate hike to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they were prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent more stubborn inflation; It further shows that the Bank of England may rate hike by 50 basis points as soon as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance showed a willingness to accelerate the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours ago, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary measures\" to prevent inflation from persisting, promising officials \"will take action, and we will take strong action\".</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June commitment to continued \"strong action\" on inflation \"both reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has been implemented so far, and also underscores any change in the pace of action. Changes depend on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>\"Before we vote on the policy decision in August, there are still many problems to solve. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts that the United States may be in full recession next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts that the United States may be in full recession next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is predicted that the United States will fall into a technical recession in Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b><b>2. Fed meeting minutes: \"More restrictive\" policies may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down</b><b>3. The United States and allies are exploring limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to US $40-60</b><b>4. Market forecast expert Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b><b>5. The European Parliament voted to \"green label\" natural gas and nuclear energy</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted that they may rate hike at a faster pace to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is predicted that the United States will fall into a technical recession in Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank said the likelihood of weaknesses in parts of the U.S. economy spreading to the still-strong labor market and services is rising, which will cause job losses and make it more difficult for the Fed to fight inflation.</p><p>Economists at Deutsche Bank now expect U.S. GDP to shrink at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean a second consecutive quarter of economic contraction, thus plunging the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect growth for the full year, at 0.6%, and a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank said that the indicator used to calculate quarterly GDP-final sales to domestic buyers-will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>\"Although this doesn't mean a recession is just around the corner, historically, there have not been many cases where final sales growth has declined so much without the economy falling into recession,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research note.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have lowered their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Fed minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed officials emphasized the need to fight inflation at the meeting, even if it meant slowing down an economy already on the brink of recession.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting showed that most Fed officials believe that the risks to economic growth are biased downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Fed may adopt \"more restrictive\" policies.</p><p>\"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needs to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that if inflationary pressures continue to rise, a more restrictive policy stance may be appropriate,\" the minutes said.</p><p>The minutes showed officials were \"highly concerned\" about inflation risks and it could take some time to bring inflation down to 2%. Many officials worry that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that policy tightening could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. and allies discuss limiting Russian crude oil prices to $40-$60</b></p><p>The United States and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude to around $40 to $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Discussions began before the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russia's oil revenue while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At the summit held in Germany on June 28, leaders agreed to study options to limit oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products, unless the selling price is lower than its prescribed level.</p><p>People familiar with the matter said that the range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low, two people familiar with the matter said. The allies aim to cut Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that if the measures are not implemented well, oil prices will soar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market forecast expert Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warned that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"stupid.\"</p><p>\"The stock market is used to sell on rallies, not to buy,\" the chairman of the University of Akron endowment said Tuesday. \"In another three, four, five or six months, this situation may change. The average duration of bear markets tends to be close to a year. How much more the stock market can fall is only a guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published the influential \"The Gartman Letter\", has been bearish on the stock market for several months. In January, he said the stock market could face a decline of as much as 15% in 2022, and he cut the weight of stocks in college funds by 12%-15% on Dec. 31. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman said the Fed's plan to \"further raise the overnight lending rate by 75-125 basis points\" after three rate hike this year will plunge the U.S. economy into recession, even if the severe inflation that has driven its tightening policy begins to slow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>European Parliament votes for'green labeling 'gas and nuclear</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th saying that after voting, the European Parliament supported the relevant bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation to address climate change.</p><p>If the EU Council does not raise objections before July 11, the bill will officially come into effect on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities for reference by member countries in investment, taxation and management. The European Commission adopted a supplementary delegated act to the regulation in February this year, classifying natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions as sustainable economic activities, and stipulating technical screening and emission standards for corresponding projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects need to meet nuclear safety and environmental safety requirements, and natural gas must help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized it for \"greenwashing\" fossil energy and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in tackling climate change. Supporters argue that refusing to label \"green\" natural gas and nuclear energy will lead to further increases in energy prices and make it more difficult for people to get rid of dependence on fossil energy sources such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials hint at a faster rate hike to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they were prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent more stubborn inflation; It further shows that the Bank of England may rate hike by 50 basis points as soon as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance showed a willingness to accelerate the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours ago, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary measures\" to prevent inflation from persisting, promising officials \"will take action, and we will take strong action\".</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June commitment to continued \"strong action\" on inflation \"both reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has been implemented so far, and also underscores any change in the pace of action. Changes depend on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>\"Before we vote on the policy decision in August, there are still many problems to solve. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249822546","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退2、美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的 3、美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元 4、市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票 5、欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”6、英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退德意志银行表示，美国经济部分领域的弱点蔓延到仍然强劲的劳动力市场和服务业的可能性正在上升，这将造成人员失业，令美联储对抗通胀更加艰难。德意志银行的经济学家现在预计，第二季度美国GDP折合年率萎缩0.6%，这将意味着连续第二个季度经济萎缩，从而使美国经济陷入技术性衰退。他们仍然预计全年经济将实现增长，增幅0.6%，到2023年中期经济将陷入全面衰退。该行表示，用于计算季度GDP的指标--面向国内购买者的最终销售--在今年二、三季度增幅将略微超过1%。“尽管这并不意味着经济衰退近在眼前，但历史上，最终销售增速下降如此之大、而经济又不陷入衰退的情况并不多，”该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道。华尔街分析师近几周来纷纷下调2022年GDP增幅预测，并对经济下滑风险发出警告。美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议的纪要文件。美联储官员们在会议上强调了对抗通胀的必要性，即便这意味着会让已经处于衰退边缘的经济放缓。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。纪要称，“与会者们一致认为，经济前景需要转向限制性政策立场。他们认识到，如果通胀压力持续升高，采取更加严格的政策立场可能是合适的。”纪要显示，官员们“高度关注”通胀风险，可能需要一段时间才能将通胀率降至2%。许多官员担忧长期价格预期可能会上升。官员们还承认，政策收紧可能会付出代价。美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元据知情人士透露，美国及其盟国已经讨论过努力将俄罗斯原油的售价限制在每桶40美元至60美元左右。相关讨论在七国集团峰会前就开始，盟国在探索限制俄罗斯石油收入、同时最大限度减少对自身经济冲击的数种途径。在6月28日于德国举行的峰会上，各国领导人同意研究限制油价的各选项，如禁止运输俄罗斯原油和石油产品所需的保险及运输服务，除非售价低于其规定的水平。知情人士称，该区间是盟国所认为的俄罗斯边际生产成本到俄乌冲突发生之前的油价。两位知情人士表示，拜登政府认为40美元的上限过低。盟国的目的是削减莫斯科可用于军事行动的收入，但风险在于，若措施执行不力油价会飙升。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。“股市上涨是用来逢高抛售的，不是用来买进的，”这位阿克伦大学捐赠基金的主席周二表示。“再过三、四、五或六个月，这样的情况可能会改变。熊市的平均期限往往接近一年。股市还能下跌多少就只能猜了。”Gartman曾发布颇具影响力的“The Gartman Letter”，他看空股市已有数月。1月份，他说股市在2022年可能面临多达15%的跌幅，他在12月31日将大学基金中股票的比重下调了12%-15%。标普500指数今年以来下跌了20%，满足传统上的熊市定义。Gartman表示，美联储今年加息三次以后，计划将隔夜贷款利率“进一步上调75-125个基点”，会令美国经济陷入衰退，即便推动其收紧政策的严重通胀开始放缓。欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”欧洲议会6日发表声明说，经过投票，欧洲议会支持欧盟委员会提出的相关法案，把满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目列入欧盟一项应对气候变化的分类条例所涵盖的可持续经济活动类别。如果欧盟理事会在7月11日前不提出异议，该法案将于2023年1月1日正式生效。欧盟这项分类条例为可持续经济活动设立标准，供各成员国在投资、税收、管理等方面参考。欧盟委员会今年2月通过了该条例的补充授权法案，将满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目归为可持续经济活动，并规定了相应项目的技术筛选和排放标准。法案规定，核能项目需要满足核安全和环境安全要求，天然气则要有助于加速从煤炭向可再生能源的过渡，同时不会影响对可再生能源的投资。该法案广受争议。环保组织和一些欧盟成员国批评其“漂绿”化石能源和核能投资，损害欧盟在应对气候变化方面的信誉。支持者则认为，拒绝给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”，将导致能源价格进一步上涨，并使人们更难摆脱对煤炭等化石能源的依赖。英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固两位英国央行高级别官员表示，为了防止通胀更加顽固，他们准备在必要时以更快的速度加息；进一步显示，英国央行最快下个月就可能加息50个基点。首席经济学家Huw Pill表示，央行的最新指引显示，如有必要，愿意加快加息周期。数小时前，英国央行副行长Jon Cunliffe表示，央行“将采取一切必要措施”，以防止通胀持续，并承诺官员们“将采取行动，我们将会采取有力行动”。Pill在伦敦发表讲话时表示，英国央行6月承诺对通胀的持续采取“有力行动”，“既反映了我愿意比当前紧缩周期迄今为止的执行速度更快紧缩，同时也强调了行动步伐发生任何变化，都要取决于新的数据和分析。”“我们在8月份就政策决定表决前，还有很多问题要解决。届时我如何投票将由我们看到的数据和我的解读来定，”他说道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEF":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"PSQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278831,"gmtCreate":1657070331623,"gmtModify":1676535943897,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278831","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126427898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657065123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126427898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126427898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, U.S. stocks staged a Jedi counterattack when open low rose, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, U.S. oil fell below $100, and gold hit its lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the fear of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ There was a great earthquake in British politics, and two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, and large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low on Tuesday, closing mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing technology stocks higher. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow fell 0.42%.</p><p>Big tech stocks all rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, and major stock indexes all fell more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX index falling 2.91% and France's CAC40 index falling 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p>Citigroup warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an 8-month low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. Lun Copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark, hitting a 17-month low, as recession worries dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit.</p><p>6. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</p><p>On Tuesday, the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but then due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%. At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>From June 28th to 29th, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, Qatar, on the resumption of implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, but no expected progress was made. On July 5, local time, U.S. State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5, local time, the mutated Novel Coronavirus Omicron strain BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States. Data show that BA.5 subtype infection cases currently account for 53.6% of new Novel Coronavirus infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infection cases account for 16.5%. The two together account for about 70% of the total number of infections in Novel Coronavirus.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared with the 3,413 cases reported by WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>The latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5 shows that global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year and increase slowly in the following years due to soaring prices and the possible further reduction of Russian natural gas supply. The report said that global natural gas use is expected to shrink by 0.5% this year compared with 2021 levels; It is estimated that by 2025, global natural gas demand will only increase by 140 billion cubic meters compared with 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to levy a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, with a total value of nearly US $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian Parliament approved the imposition of a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's state coffers as gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (about 19.72 billion US dollars) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs to be approved by the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor that began in the early morning of that day ended. The Norwegian government reportedly intervened in the strike through the Norwegian Compulsory Wage Commission, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, targeting Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said that after a series of scandals, he lost confidence in Johnson's ability to govern for the national interest, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's administration with conscience. Javid said that many lawmakers and the public have lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints a new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Minister of Health</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahawi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahawi was previously the British Minister of Education. In addition, Steve Buckley was appointed as the new health secretary, replacing Javid. Buckley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation channel to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Erdogan stated that Turkey will work hard to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea food security transportation channel. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" Erdogan said, saying that the crisis in Ukraine has caused disruptions to the passage for transporting grain in the Black Sea region and raised problems with grain trade. Although Turkey has not suffered from global food shortages, some countries in the world, especially African countries, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmeygar submitted an application to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Matthias Coleman, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that day. Shmeygar said that Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial to Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange the latest developments after the G7 summit and NATO summit. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. When the two sides talked about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held in Lugano, Switzerland a day ago, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla announces prototype of solar-extended range trailer that can provide battery life for electric pickup trucks</a></p><p>Based on reports from many technology media such as Electrek, Tesla demonstrated a prototype solar-powered extended-range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide extra range for its electric pickup truck CyberTruck. In addition, this trailer is also equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows car owners to connect to the Internet in areas without telecommunications signals.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Targeting technology giants such as Google and Apple, the European Parliament passes two milestone bills</a></p><p>On July 5, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Law and the Digital Market Law respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to restrain the power of technology giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian to destroy 13.6 million expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5, local time, that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Canadian storage.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things Sets New Viewership Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming media giant Netflix said that the total views of the latest season of Stranger Things have exceeded 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English TV series in Netflix's history. Another TV series on Netflix's platform with a broadcast time of more than 1 billion hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" that became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return rate of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, boosting its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan is short on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40%</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are all among the most controversial companies that have attracted much attention from Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries missed expectations, bearish sentiment remains pervasive despite the company's record-high production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded deeply overnight! U.S. bond surge boosts technology stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-06 07:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, U.S. stocks staged a Jedi counterattack when open low rose, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, U.S. oil fell below $100, and gold hit its lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the fear of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ There was a great earthquake in British politics, and two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, and large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low on Tuesday, closing mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing technology stocks higher. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow fell 0.42%.</p><p>Big tech stocks all rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, and major stock indexes all fell more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX index falling 2.91% and France's CAC40 index falling 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, to close at $99.50 a barrel, the largest drop since mid-March and May 10. The lowest closing price since.</p><p>Citigroup warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an 8-month low</p><p>Gold futures prices in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. Lun Copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark, hitting a 17-month low, as recession worries dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit.</p><p>6. U.S. bonds set off a storm, and the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted amid recession fears</p><p>On Tuesday, the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but then due to the resurgence of economic worries, the yield gain reversed, falling to a minimum of 2.8%. At one point intraday, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This curve inversion indicates that the market believes that the economic slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>From June 28th to 29th, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, Qatar, on the resumption of implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, but no expected progress was made. On July 5, local time, U.S. State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5, local time, the mutated Novel Coronavirus Omicron strain BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing novel coronavirus pneumonia in the United States. Data show that BA.5 subtype infection cases currently account for 53.6% of new Novel Coronavirus infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infection cases account for 16.5%. The two together account for about 70% of the total number of infections in Novel Coronavirus.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared with the 3,413 cases reported by WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>The latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5 shows that global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year and increase slowly in the following years due to soaring prices and the possible further reduction of Russian natural gas supply. The report said that global natural gas use is expected to shrink by 0.5% this year compared with 2021 levels; It is estimated that by 2025, global natural gas demand will only increase by 140 billion cubic meters compared with 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to levy a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, with a total value of nearly US $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian Parliament approved the imposition of a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's state coffers as gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (about 19.72 billion US dollars) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs to be approved by the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor that began in the early morning of that day ended. The Norwegian government reportedly intervened in the strike through the Norwegian Compulsory Wage Commission, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, targeting Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said that after a series of scandals, he lost confidence in Johnson's ability to govern for the national interest, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's administration with conscience. Javid said that many lawmakers and the public have lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints a new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Minister of Health</p><p>On the evening of July 5, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahawi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahawi was previously the British Minister of Education. In addition, Steve Buckley was appointed as the new health secretary, replacing Javid. Buckley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation channel to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Erdogan stated that Turkey will work hard to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea food security transportation channel. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" Erdogan said, saying that the crisis in Ukraine has caused disruptions to the passage for transporting grain in the Black Sea region and raised problems with grain trade. Although Turkey has not suffered from global food shortages, some countries in the world, especially African countries, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmeygar submitted an application to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Matthias Coleman, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that day. Shmeygar said that Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial to Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange the latest developments after the G7 summit and NATO summit. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. When the two sides talked about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held in Lugano, Switzerland a day ago, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla announces prototype of solar-extended range trailer that can provide battery life for electric pickup trucks</a></p><p>Based on reports from many technology media such as Electrek, Tesla demonstrated a prototype solar-powered extended-range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide extra range for its electric pickup truck CyberTruck. In addition, this trailer is also equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows car owners to connect to the Internet in areas without telecommunications signals.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Targeting technology giants such as Google and Apple, the European Parliament passes two milestone bills</a></p><p>On July 5, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Law and the Digital Market Law respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to restrain the power of technology giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canadian to destroy 13.6 million expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5, local time, that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in Canadian storage.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things Sets New Viewership Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming media giant Netflix said that the total views of the latest season of Stranger Things have exceeded 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English TV series in Netflix's history. Another TV series on Netflix's platform with a broadcast time of more than 1 billion hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\" that became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return rate of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, boosting its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan is short on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40%</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are all among the most controversial companies that have attracted much attention from Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries missed expectations, bearish sentiment remains pervasive despite the company's record-high production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","USO":"美国原油ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126427898","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位高官同日宣布辞职。海外市场1、隔夜美股收盘涨跌不一 大型科技股全线上涨美股周二低开高走，收盘涨跌不一，国债收益率走低推动科技股上涨。截至收盘，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.16%，道指跌0.42%。大型科技股悉数上涨，苹果涨1.89%，亚马逊涨3.60%，Meta涨5.10%，谷歌涨4.16%，微软涨1.26%，奈飞涨3.30%，特斯拉涨2.55%。2、热门中概股多数走高金融壹账通涨近19%热门中概股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.56%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.78%，哔哩哔哩涨3.63%，百度涨1.82%，新东方涨11.28%，网易跌1.23%，爱奇艺涨2.52%，好未来涨4.78%；金融壹账通大涨超19%，其港股上市次日大涨超40%。新能源汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨3.84%，小鹏汽车涨6.11%，理想汽车涨6.10%，法拉第未来48.73%。3、欧股收盘全线下跌 主要股指均跌逾2%欧股周二收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌2.91%，法国CAC40指数跌2.68%，英国富时100指数跌2.86%。4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2%跌破100美元关口原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。花旗集团警告称，如果需求严重衰退到来，到今年年底可能会跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底跌至45美元。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌2.1% 创8个月新低纽约黄金期货价格周二大幅收跌，并创今年迄今的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌37.60美元，跌幅为2.10%，报收于每桶1763.90美元，创12月初以来的最低收盘价。周二黄金与白银、铜和其他大宗商品一起大幅下跌。伦铜收跌逾4%，跌破8000美元关口，创最近17个月低点，经济衰退忧虑主导市场。ICE棉花期货价格一度触及跌停。6、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂周二基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。国际宏观1、美国务院发言人：没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划6月28日至29日，在欧盟的协调下，伊朗和美国在卡塔尔首都多哈就伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约举行间接谈判，但没有取得预期的进展。当地时间7月5日，美国国务院发言人普赖斯在简报会上称，目前没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划。2、美疾控中心：奥密克戎BA.5亚型已成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株根据美国疾控中心当地时间7月5日公布的数据，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株BA.5亚型已经成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株。数据显示，BA.5亚型感染病例目前占全美新增新冠病毒感染病例的53.6%，而BA.4亚型感染病例占16.5%，两者合计约占新冠病毒感染病例总数的70%。3、世卫组织：全球已报告超5300例猴痘病例 8天时间增长了56%当地时间7月5日，世界卫生组织（WHO）通报称，截至6月30日，全球多国已报告5322例经实验室确诊的猴痘病例，其中1人死亡。在日内瓦举行的简报会上，世卫组织发言人法蒂拉·沙伊布告诉记者，该确诊病例数比世卫组织6月22日通报的3413例增长了56%。4、国际能源署预期今年天然气消费小幅减少国际能源署7月5日发布的天然气市场最新季度报告显示，由于价格飙升以及俄罗斯天然气可能进一步减少供应，今年全球天然气消费将小幅减少，之后数年会缓慢增加。报告说，今年全球天然气使用量预期较2021年水平缩减0.5%；预计到2025年，全球天然气需求量仅比2021年增长1400亿立方米。5、俄罗斯即将对天然气巨头开征暴利税 总价值近200亿美元当地时间7月5日，俄罗斯议会批准对能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司征收临时暴利税。随着天然气价格飙升，此举将向俄罗斯国库注入相当于近200亿美元的资金。根据俄罗斯国家杜马周二通过的一项法案，俄气将在9月至11月期间额外支付1.25万亿卢布（约合197.2亿美元）的矿产开采税，即每月4160亿卢布。该法案仍然需要俄罗斯联邦委员会和总统的批准。6、挪威石油行业罢工结束当地时间7月5日晚，在挪威政府的介入下，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）于当天凌晨开始的罢工结束。据报道，挪威政府通过强制工资委员会对罢工进行了干预，挪威强制性工资委员会是政府可以实施的一项强制性措施，以制止持续的劳资纠纷。7、英国政坛大地震？两位高官同日宣布辞职 矛头直指首相约翰逊随着两位高级官员宣布辞职，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊再次遭遇严重的政治打击。当地时间周二（7月5日），英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克相继宣布辞职，并且都将矛头指向了首相约翰逊。贾维德在辞职信中表示，在一系列丑闻之后，他对约翰逊为国家利益执政的能力失去了信心，并表示自己已无法再凭良心在约翰逊政府中任职。贾维德称，许多议员和公众都对约翰逊失去了信心。8、英国首相任命新的财政大臣和卫生大臣当地时间7月5日晚间，英国首相约翰逊宣布任命纳迪姆·扎哈维接替苏纳克为新任财政大臣。扎哈维此前为英国教育大臣。此外，史蒂夫·巴克利被任命为新任卫生大臣，接替贾维德。巴克利此前为约翰逊的幕僚长。9、土耳其称将推动黑海粮食运输通道谈判尽快取得成果当地时间7月5日，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，土耳其将努力推动与俄罗斯和乌克兰就黑海粮食安全运输通道问题达成协议。埃尔多安说：“我们将努力加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判，争取在一周或十天内取得成果。”埃尔多安表示，乌克兰危机导致黑海地区运输粮食的通道中断，并引发粮食贸易问题。虽然土耳其并未因全球粮食短缺而遭遇困境，但世界上有些国家，特别是非洲国家正面临粮食危机。目前，土方正与联合国等有关各方一起，努力解决这一问题。俄乌局势1、乌克兰提交加入经合组织的申请乌克兰国家通讯社7月5日报道称，当天乌克兰总理什梅加尔向经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼提交了加入经合组织的申请。什梅加尔表示，乌克兰寻求尽快加入该组织，来自经合组织的支持对于乌克兰战后复苏和发展至关重要。2、英国首相约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话7月5日，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了电话会晤，交流七国集团峰会和北约峰会后的最新进展。约翰逊表示，英国提供的最新军事装备，包括10种火炮装备及弹药，将在未来几天或几周时间内运抵乌克兰。泽连斯基向约翰逊告知了乌克兰国内目前的局势以及俄乌前线的最新进展。双方谈到一天前在瑞士卢加诺举行的乌克兰重建会议时，约翰逊表示欢迎乌克兰的重建计划，并期待英国主办明年的会议。公司新闻1、特斯拉公布太阳能增程拖车原型 可为电动皮卡续航综合Electrek等多家科技媒体报道，特斯拉公司在德国汉诺威举行的IdeenExpo展会上，首次展示了一款太阳能增程拖车原型。特斯拉称其可为旗下电动皮卡CyberTruck提供额外的续航里程。另外，这部拖车还配备了SpaceX的卫星互联网接收器，可以使车主在没有电信信号的地区接通互联网。2、剑指谷歌、苹果等科技巨头 欧洲议会通过两部里程碑法案当地时间7月5日，欧洲议会以压倒性多数分别通过了《数字服务法》和《数字市场法》。一些议员声称，这两部法律的通过具有里程碑意义，将能够约束谷歌、苹果等科技巨头的权力。据悉，这两部法律将于2024年1月前后生效实施。3、大众汽车将关闭位于俄罗斯的某个生产基地德国一家工会周二表示，大众汽车将关闭其在俄罗斯的两个生产基地之一，该公司根据与俄罗斯GAZ集团的合同在那里组装汽车。今年3月，大众汽车宣布，由于西方的制裁，其位于Kaluga和Nizhny Novgorod的工厂的生产将暂停，直到另行通知。4、加拿大将销毁1360万剂过期的阿斯利康新冠疫苗加拿大卫生部当地时间7月5日宣布，1360万剂阿斯利康新冠疫苗在春季过期，将被销毁。据悉，这批即将销毁的1360万剂疫苗占加拿大储存的阿斯利康新冠疫苗总数的一半以上。5、奈飞：《怪奇物语》创造了新的收视纪录当地时间周二，流媒体巨头奈飞表示，最新一季《怪奇物语》的总观看量已经超过了11.5亿小时。这意味着这部科幻剧已成为了奈飞史上最受欢迎的英语电视剧，奈飞平台上另一部播放时间超过10亿小时是去年火爆全球的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》。6、桥水旗舰基金据称上半年收益率高达32%据媒体援引消息人士报道，得益于市场波动加剧，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金麾下旗舰基金Pure Alpha II在今年上半年实现了32%的高回报率。知情人士称，Pure Alpha II基金6月上涨了4.8%，将其自1991年成立以来的年化回报率提高到了11.4%。7、小摩唱空特斯拉：还要再跌超过40%一直以来，特斯拉都是备受华尔街关注，也争议最多的公司之一。在特斯拉第二季度的交付未达预期之后，尽管该公司在6月份的产量创下了历史最高纪录，但市场看空情绪依然弥漫。最新下调特斯拉目标价的投资银行是摩根大通。该行称，特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌超过40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"UCO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"USO":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047502318,"gmtCreate":1656937918634,"gmtModify":1676535918487,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047502318","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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