OIL and Post Payroll Price Action Based On Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb
November payroll was also small and was itself clearing a double top liquidity, then breaking down for the foreseeable weeks.December Payroll price action was rather unusual. Payroll candle had small range and full and didn't change the price at all. It creates three drives pattern and fully clears the Thursday bottom by Friday when inflation news hits the market.In January, the price continued lower against the direction of Payroll price action. It created Low on Monday and continued towards its High clearing it on the last day of the week (Friday).The February Payroll candle was fully retraced. Liquidity is taken on the bottom (Monday) and the price continues higher (Tuesday ->)My prediction for the oil price action is that it will first clear the liquidity to the downside. There are
TGIF is a framework coined by Inner Circle Trader (ICT). It is a Friday setup most common in the New York session after all red news is reported.Throughout the week, SPX500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's price was steadily growing. This is essential for the setup, as we want to short from the High under the expectation that the market won't close at or near its maximum price.SPX500: Exemplar TGIF SetupOn Friday, news included Non-farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate in the US and GDP in Canada at 14:30 and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 (CEST).Following the earlier news reports at 14:30, the price spiked and moved sideways creating short-term equal Highs that would be broken shortly before later news at about 15:30.Later, the
SPCE: Buying at 4.0SPCE $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ is an interesting stock. For what it is it is able to generate massive hypes. I was trading it back around when they went to "space" for the first time.I think 4.0 will be good as a technical level for a short term bounce.
Netflix $Netflix(NFLX)$ '400' Round Number ReactionNetflix has traded into the 400$ price level and immediately reacted. This is a historical resistance and is likely to trigger temporary drawbacks.I would hold for a couple of days at most. This is otherwise a relatively legit company.
Keepin Track Of The Boycotted Companies (Or At The Risk Off)
I've been watching the situation in the US with interest for the past few years. It seems that the customers are slowly creating parallel economies - one for Democrats and one for Republicans. The people are rich enough so they can afford to choose products from a company that shared their beliefs.So far it does appear that Republicans are better able to mobilize in order to boycott (Budlight) as well as to protect their own companies/products they like that the Democrats are attempting to boycott (Hogwarts Legacy).Anyhow, the most recent examples started with Budlight. I shared my analysis and the position I showed is still in the chart. The company is in a struggle to obtain new customers and/or retain the old base and moreover, has just been sued for marketing the beer to children. If t
Target $Target(TGT)$ is another US company that became politically active and may have triggered many customers in a similar way BudLight did. I would avoid shorting it due to the technical outlook.The stock consolidated for almost a year now with 158$ being the pivot point. We are below that price now. While I do believe that the downside potential is significant, the stock is not at a premium price. In other words, it is already cheap.What I am looking for is a good technical setup that would be supported by a potential outrage/boycott. If the price is driven down here, it is the boycott alone with no technical support. 175 must be a minimum price before I would consider shorting.
Another woke beer seems to be losing valuation as a result
$Molson Coors(TAP)$ Super-smart marketers at Cors launched a man-bashing ad back before Budlight's debut. Only a few would pay attention to it in today's environment, it isn't that shocking.However, due to Budlight's wildly extreme that sparked a total boycott of the brand, fake beer consumers became a lot more sensitive and a couple of months old ad started circulating on social media.BARE MINIMUM: Cors (TAP) made a lot of money from the Budlight boycott. This money will be lost since it stands upon the shoulders of people infuriated with any political content in the ads and it was the reason they started buying Cors in the first place. I expect the gains, to be, therefore, removed in the coming weeks. A chart shows when their Budlight-boycott-pro
Following the boycott of Anheuser-Busch's Budlight $Anheuser Busch Inbev SA NV(BUDFF)$ , it dropped initially, then went sideways from there. The consolidation range is now broken and I believe it is going down.Seeing social media, I don't see this boycott ending anytime soon, many people choose not to drink the beer for life. A few extend on to boycotting other Anheuser-Busch products too. Budlight alone makes up about 16% of the company's global revenue and more than 20% in the US specifically just for context.
For the last 4 days, the daily candle ranges didn't exceed 5 Average Daily Range. In the last 240 days, the largest volatility-decreasing sequence lasted 7 days and isn't at all common. I think it is quite likely, that we will see an above 100% expansion now.If it goes higher during the news, I would fade this event and hold the trade at least until today's close (as EURUSD and GBPUSD or another major pair).I don't have any plan for USD going lower during news and will not trade such an event.I might choose to take a trade here if the price consolidates for a few moments.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDOLLAR/QYd8NxVh-Potential-Short-Entry-in-After-News-Trading/
Comparing BoJ interventions and Anticipating Future Ones
Japan's PM Kishida claims, he cannot tolerate excessive FX moves by speculation. But given the circumstances of the message, I understand 'speculation' as an excess of supply and lack of demand. Anyway, I will not argue with the correctness of his wording, political or otherwise, and will just compare the similarities.► The interventions started after breaking 145 and 150 (151) price levels respectively.► First, the levels were gently grazed by a candle which later becomes hugedojiwith above-average volumes closing below such price level. This is likely an anticipatory price action and not a part of the intervention.► After the price breaks above the key levels for the second time, it stays there for at least an hour into either London or New York session before the intervention starts.► B