exlux99

    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2023-01-31

      US Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023Based on the data from VIX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 19.76%, down from 20.21% last week.This can be translated in +/- 2.74% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channelTOP: 4188BOT: 3965The probability to break this channel(akathe close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at82% with the last 20 years of data71% with data since 2022However, if we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VIX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filterto look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half).
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      US Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2023-01-10

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.93%With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 65th percentile.Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*Bullish: 2.64% movementBearish: 2.47% movementAt the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:TOP: 4025BOT: 3800Taking into consideration the previous weekl
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2023-01-04

      SPX. IXIC. and BTC Monthly Volatility Analyis in January

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SPX January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023Currently the IV for SPX is at 6.25%, down from 6.67% last month.From the volatility current percentile we are located on 58th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:Bullish: 6.544%Bearish: 6.106%With this in mind we have currently 81.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channelTOP Limit: 4154BOT Limit: 3635If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :38.18% to hit the previous monthly high56.52% to hit the previous monthly lowLastly from the technical analysispoint of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100)Weekly Timeframe:
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      SPX. IXIC. and BTC Monthly Volatility Analyis in January
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2023-01-03

      GOLD January 2023 Volatility Analysis

      $Gold - main 2302(GCmain)$ Currently the volatility for GOLD is at 4.46%, down from 4.48% last month.From the volatility current percentile we are located on 25th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:Bullish: 4.782%Bearish: 2.385%With this in mind we have currently 73.2% that the market is going to stay within the next channelTOP Limit: 1905BOT Limit: 1741If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :71.08% to hit the previous monthly high26.93% to hit the previous monthly lowLastly from thetechnical analysispoint of view, currentlyWeekly Timeframe: 80% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISHMont
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      GOLD January 2023 Volatility Analysis
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-12-13

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 12-16 Dec 2022

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up from 3.08% from last week according to DVOL dataWith this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 71th percentile,while according to VIX, we are on 31th percentile.Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:Bullish: 2.72% movementBearish: 2.4% movementAt the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,meaning that there is a 15.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the ne
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 12-16 Dec 2022
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-12-06

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 5-9 Dec 2022

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Possible BIG Short movement for SPXWe can that currently we are close to one of the biggest resistence points of 4100.4800, 4600, 4300, 4100 Were the biggest resistence points for 2022, so we can use these values for future references.In this year, we had 2 big bullish movements and 2 big bearish movements, all of them very similar, around 18% .If history is going to repeat itself and the 4100 is going to act as a huge resistence point for the bullish trend,we can expect a possible downfall until 3400/3300 according to the past movements.However, if we are going to break 4100, we can have a possible 5% long continuation movement until 4300 which is the next big resistence point.2.
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 5-9 Dec 2022
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-11-29

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast-Nov 28,2022

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 2.85% , down from 3.06% of last week.According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 63th percentile, while with VIX$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  we are on 29th percentile.Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :In case of bullish- 2.9%In case of bearish- 2.56%With the current IV calculation, we have currently 24.3% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either aboveor below the next channel:TOP: 4143BOT: 3897At the same time, taking into consideration t
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast-Nov 28,2022
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-11-22

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast- 21-25 Nov 2022

      1.SP500 Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022$S&P 500(.SPX)$ We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.2%, down from 3.34% last week according to VIX data(US Volatility Index )With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 68th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 33th percentile.Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:Bullish: 3% movementBearish: 2.55% movementAt the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be eith
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast- 21-25 Nov 2022
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-11-15

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 14-18 November 2022

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.12%, down from 3.33% of last week.From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 65th from ATR and 51th from VIX index.With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be:2.86% forbullish2.73% forbearishWith the current IV, we can expect with a 75.7% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel:TOP: 4116BOT: 3851Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have:79% to hit the previous weekly high of 401426% to hit the previous weekly low of 37382.
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 14-18 November 2022
    • exlux99exlux99
      ·2022-11-07

      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022

      1.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.41% which declined from 3.56% last week.Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 65th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a volatile market.Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details.We can see that currently there is 24.3% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channelTOP: 3890BOT: 3616This can also be translated as a 75.7% chance that the market is going to move within this established range.At the same, looking at the
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      Global Main Indices Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022
     
     
     
     

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