To The Moon

Asset Managers are currently the most bullish they have been in over 2 years (since Jan '22), according to $Bank of America(BAC)$ ’s April Survey. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Image76% of Fund Managers surveyed by BofA expect 2+ rate cuts this year. Only 8% are forecasting no cuts at all for 2024. ImagePut/Call Ratio

Consensus estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ in Q1.Last quarter, Wall Street was also modeling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ImageApril is historically a strong month for the SPX. A mid-month dip during tax day/week has also been the norm since 1985.Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1778551277963616400

We are currently in the corporate buyback blackout period for most of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Since 2000, US corporations have bought back $5.5T of stock. This has amounted to more demand than any other market participant, and it’s not even close. 👇👇ImageAnd why and how long buyback blackout period?The blackout period is typically 4-6 weeks prior to the company’s earnings report and ends a few days after the release.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1777340193781014656

April is historically a strong month for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . A mid-month dip during tax day/week has also been the norm since 1985.ImageAsset managers’ speculative positions in the SPX (options, futures, etc.) have risen to a record high.ImageTech is dominating equity flows in 2024. 9 of the other 10 sectors have net outflows YTD.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1774943900601401378

The 10 largest TMT（Technology, Media and Telecoms） stocks currently trade at a 28x Fwd P/E multiple.Still well below heights reached during previous bubbles - 52x at the Dot Com peak and 43x at the Covid Bubble peak. $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1770948349878808908

With Tech continuing to lead the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , there is a narrative that the sector has become too big/dominant.But history reminds us that it is not unprecedented to see 1 sector dominate this much. Just like Tech today, Energy ruled in the 1950s. Specifically, Tech’s size today equals the Energy sector’s peak in the 1950s. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Tech valuations are still not nearly as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble.At the peak of the Dot Com Bubble, Tech traded at 2x the P/E multiple of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Currently, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ trades at 1.25x to the SPX.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762565064656040242

Last week, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said that this rate cutting cycle could look more like 1995 when the Fed eased on moderating inflation rather than growth concerns.Despite the slow nature of that cutting cycle, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ finished +42% in 1995.ImageGoldman’s Sentiment Indicator, which measures positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12M, is now into stretched territory.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762256469120917587

When the $Spectrum Rare Earths Ltd(SPX.AU)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ bottomed in October 2022, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ had a $280B market cap and a 12M Fwd PE of 32x.Last Friday, NVDA eclipsed a $2T market cap for the 1st time. The 12M Fwd PE is now…33x.ImageNVDA call volume hit its 2nd highest level ever on Friday as the stock briefly eclipsed a $2T market cap.ImageRecent history of NVDA earnings prints have been more suggestive of local top moments than breakout moments for the stock.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1761488965855822213

On a Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth Ratio, Magnificent 7( $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ) valuations are still significantly lower than the rest of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageI’ve owned NVDA since 2017. Recent h