To The Moon

Thursday was another rough day for the AI trade. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped -0.3%, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell -1.4%. Earlier in the week, Semis rallied 3 straight days on $Anthropic(ANT)$ ’s IPO filing. That bounce didn’t last. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ led the way down today (-12.6%). And after the bell, it got even worse. Fed Recap The Fed held rates steady yesterday at 3.75%-4%. On Sunday, I said this would be a pretty boring FOMC, and it mostly was. The 1 wrinkle was the vote. It was 10-2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both dissenting in favor of a hike. Cook hadn’t dissented once since joining the Fed in 2022. War

1. Tail risk protection Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by $S&P 500(.SPX)$ downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago. 2. Buyback blackout exit We estimate ~27% of the index is currently in open window, with that number almost doubling to ~50% by the end of the week. 3. SPX vs. 200DMA So far, the small-caps, mid-caps, transports, semiconductors, as well as many sectors have tested their 200 DMAs. We suspect SPX is next which would bring it towards 7300 at a minimum. 4. Earnings rollover The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out. 5. Compute efficiency $Anthropic(

Last week was another rough one for the AI trade. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell -0.5% on the week. The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ dropped -0.8%. Semis got hit harder. The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ fell -3.2%. On the surface, that doesn’t sound so bad. The indices barely moved. But underneath the surface, it has been a historic crash in Momentum stocks. Morgan Stanley’s US TMT Momentum Factor is now -62% from its highs ‼️ Image Leaders Breaking Down It’s a tale of 2 markets right now. Defensives are holding up and outperforming. Meanwhile, the very stocks that led this bull market for the last few years are in Stage 4 declines. Just look at where some of the AI

Thursday was another brutal day for US stocks. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped -1.2%. The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ fell -2.6%, its worst day since June. Semis $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ got hit the hardest, tanking -6.7%. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ earnings set the tone (and not in a good way). The SPX is just -2.3% off its highs. Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket is -41% ‼️ That’s through Wednesday’s close. BEFORE today’s tech wreck. Momentum is no doubt down closer to -45% + after today’s bloodbath. How did we get here? Let’s rewind back to July. 👇

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is just ~1% below its highs, yet Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket has plunged 41%. Meanwhile, semiconductors have fallen 26% relative to the $SPX from their relative highs. Over the past 20+ years, only three episodes went meaningfully deeper: 2008 financial crisis 2022 bear market Liberation Day sell-off 👇 Watch $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This is a massive divergence beneath the surface. The headline index looks resilient, but high-beta momentum and semiconductors tell a very different story. When leadership deteriorates this sharply while t

Dip buying has been aggressive this week. The clearest sign? The 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ is on track for its largest-ever week of net inflows. That’s a major vote of confidence from traders betting on a semiconductor rebound. But record inflows into a leveraged ETF can cut both ways: they amplify exposure to a recovery while increasing the pain if the selloff continues. The key question: Is this dip buying the start of a sustained rebound, or are traders stepping in too early? Strong inflows show conviction—not confirmation. Watch price action before assuming the bottom is in. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil

Here’s what’s happening under the hood 👇 Some of the biggest winners of the AI boom are now deep in bear-market territory, with many down more than 50% from their highs. $Oracle(ORCL)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Corning(GLW)$ $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ The AI narra

The index is telling one story. The average stock is telling another. 📉 134 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks are down 40% or more from their highs. That’s roughly 27% of the entire index. Meanwhile, the $SPX is sitting just 0.1% below its all-time high. That’s a massive disconnect beneath the surface. Index strength is masking significant damage across individual stocks, with a narrow group of leaders keeping the headline market elevated. 👀 The key question: Does strength eventually broaden to the beaten-down names, or does weakness spread to the index leaders? Watch market breadth closely. The headline high alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields,

The 3M correlation between the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ (equal weight) just hit 15 year lows. This is the narrowest market in decades. 👇 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thinking carefully about where to position next. There’s no one-size-fits-all choice in investing — and the same goes for Tiger Merch. This month’s hot picks are in, featuring the Tiger Toiletry Bag, Universal Travel Adapter, Tiger Umbrella and more favourites chosen by fellow Tigers. Explore the Monthly Hot Picks in Tiger Coin Ma

Another one for the bears. 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just logged 10 straight sessions with more 52-week lows than 52-week highs while sitting within 2% of its highs. That’s an unusual divergence. Since 1990, this has happened only two other times: December 1999January 2000 Both occurred right around the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble. Does that mean the market is about to repeat 2000? No. But when the index is sitting near highs while breadth underneath is deteriorating this aggressively, it’s a signal worth paying attention to. Bears have a data point. Now they need the price action to confirm it. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets