To The Moon

Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. This is an order alert for the Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLF). We have set a limit buy order for its shares at $31.9. The financial sector is only SLIGHTLY discounted. Although under the current market condition, it is the better option comparatively. To me, Berkshire’s recent disclosure also shows that Buffett could not find too many good ideas besides the financial sector. Front matters and welcome new members! This is a very brief order alert for the Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLF). We have set a limit buy order for it at $31.9. It is about 2.5% below its current market price, about the magnitude of its weekly price volatility. You will be the first one to know when/i

[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r

Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to update our holdings in case you share an interest in the stocks and ETFs that we hold. The second purpose is to alert you about a red flag in the narrowing of the yield spread between BAA bond and treasury bond rates. Combined with the inverted yield curve, it is a signal that we are watching closely. Front matters There are not many changes to our SWP (survival-withdrawal) portfolio this month. Overall, we see bonds have become more attractive relative to equity. And hence, we decreased our Equity-Bond ratio from 70.5% to 69.0% this month. As a result, we sold some VTI and VEU and added some treasury bonds. For tactical holdings, we increased our TSN positions a bit foll

SummaryThis article provides a review of all three of our investment accounts for 2022.Two of our accounts outperformed the S&P 500, and the third one essentially tied with it. We will compile some Q&As that we exchanged with our members during 2022.After the review, we will summarize (or reiterate) some key lessons learned together with an outlook for 2023.Overall, we are not seeing the signals to activate our “bottom-fishingallocation model” yet.And we will share our thoughts on these signals (and youwill be the first one to know when we see those signals).Dear tiger readers:This is a repost of an article that we wrote for our investment marketplace service. We are reposting it here in case some of ideas are of interest to you. You can check out our other articles and our blog on

Summary ·       As top-down investors, we monitor the broader sectors to identify the most promising areas. ·       This month, we see the dividend champions as a whole group are becoming attractive. ·       We also performed a screening using the Magic Formula (MF) investing method to pick some of the best combinations of value and quality. ·       Many excellent dividend stocks such as RLI, TROW, CVX, and XOM showed up on our radar. ·       Dividend growth investors can take this opportunity to strengthen their holdings with this elite group of stocks in terms of geographical diversification and sector diversific

Summary A UTMA (Uniform Transfers To Minors) account provides some tax advantages and is a good vehicle to build inter-generational wealth. This article shares our thoughts on our UTMA account and our current holdings. Finally, you will see some of the stocks on our watch list for this account (Apple and Tyson Foods in particular). What is an UTMA account? We have a young kid and have created a small UTMA (Uniform Transfers To Minors) account for him. There are good reasons to consider such an account if you are in a similar stage in life.This page from Fidelity (where our account is) provides an informative discussion. Here I will just briefly discuss the aspects relevant to our situation. For us, UTMA offers tax advantages and the time horizon to accommodate more aggressive investment

Alibaba is scheduled to report its September quarter (CY22 Q3) earnings on 11/17/2022. Investors are waiting anxiously given the many ongoing uncertainties ranging from the COVID situation to domestic politics, and also international geopolitical risks. Hope this article can help to ease your anxiety a bit by taking your focus away from the large uncertainties surrounding its Q3 earnings. You will see that regardless of what may happen to its Q3 earnings, the bulk of its current valuation can be supported just by its main assets as shown in the table below. The table is a SOTP (sum of the parts) analysis based on its most recent financial filings. A few highlights in particular: Currently, more than 54% of its market cap is just current assets ($96.29B out of $178.1B), the asset item that

We'd like to first invite you to our channel on Telegram for the latest update:https://t.me/EnvisionRet [Claw] [Heart] SummaryThere is no shortage of headwinds for Google in the near term, ranging from geopolitical risks, to currency headwinds, to regulatory risks. But once we look past these near-term issues, I see a buy-and-forget stock. I see it holding above-average capital appreciation potential with expected far exceeding the overall market. Given the market volatilities, investors have a good chance of grabbing shares around $95, which would lead to an 11%+ annual return potential.GOOG at $95I see GOOG holding above-average capital appreciation potential for the pull to 2025-2027. To wit, the chart below (our investing roadmap) shows our projected annual return for GO

Summary Banks typically do not make it to the Dogs of the Dow list. However, this month, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are currently the 8th and 10th highest-yielding stocks in the Dow list. The Q3 earning season could offer both at multi-year attractive entry levels. The ongoing volatility might offer Goldman Sachs a tangible book value and JPMorgan near a target price of ~$100. Thesis Banks typically do not make it to the Dogs of the Dow list. However, this month, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are currently the 8th and 10th highest-yielding stocks in the Dow list as you can see from the following chart. Q3 may offer GS at TBV Buying good banks (such as GS and JPM) at or near tangible book value has been proven to be very successful investment in our experiences – for obvious reasons. We are o

Tesla Q3 watch out for $175 Based on the price movements caused by its 2022 Q3 delivery and AI day, I foresee Tesla stock a $175-$250 trading window in the near future (till the Q4 delivery). I see more downside than upside in the near term. Although a $175 price, if reached, would represent an excellent entry point for both swing trading and long-term holding. As detailed in this full-length article on Seeking Alpha (link below), a $175 price offers good etnry point for both short-term swing trading and long-term holding. For short term swing trading, the $175 price, if reached due to jitter caused by its Q3 earnings report, would represent a 57% decline off its recent peak, closest to the largest retraction of 60% only during the COVID fire sale. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545981