To The Moon

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Summary

There is no shortage of headwinds for Google in the near term, ranging from geopolitical risks, to currency headwinds, to regulatory risks. But once we look past these near-term issues, I see a buy-and-forget stock. I see it holding above-average capital appreciation potential with expected far exceeding the overall market. Given the market volatilities, investors have a good chance of grabbing shares around $95, which would lead to an 11%+ annual return potential.

GOOG at $95

I see GOOG holding above-average capital appreciation potential for the pull to 2025-2027. To wit, the chart below (our investing roadmap) shows our projected annual return for GOOG and the overall market represented by the S&P 500 index. As seen, GOOG is projected to provide about 10.5% annual return (“ROI”) at its current price of around $101. It is already more than 3% above the overall market at its current valuation of around 19.5x PE. And given the market volatilities, I think investors have a good chance of grabbing some shares around $95. And you will see later that at such a price, its PE would be only 18.1x adjusted for its cash position, leading to an 11% annual return potential. 

With such a widemargin of safety and lead above the overall market, it is truly a buy-and-forget stock. All we need is just to give it some time for the market volatility to run its course and for GOOG’s initiatives like its Cloud and ecosystem to grow. 

Source: author 

Our investing roadmap

As detailed inour blog article (https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48844541-envision-research/5759606-hp-inc-and-utma-account), we use it in all our investment decisions and in our market service to help us and our members focused on the long-term like business owners, not stock traders. Using our UTMA account as an example, our current holdings are listed in the chart below. And their place on our roadmap is highlighted in blue in the chart above. Note that for some holdings (like HPQ and MU, the PE is so compressed that they are off this chart). 

For performance tracing purposes, I used the prices on July 11, 2022 (the date I first published this portfolio https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522874-apple-why-resumed-buying?source=all_articles_title ) as the entry price to make it easier for readers to track its performance. As you can see, the account is leading SPY by a small margin of 2.60% based on the prices as of Oct 21. Also, note that our holdings have a much higher dividend yield of 4.21% currently than the overall market (1.61%). And the return comparisons are adjusted for dividends. 

As you can also see, thanks to the roadmap, we were able to beat the market both in terms of performance and downward volatility with only 6 stocks during a highly turbulent period of time. 

We regularly update our holdings. If you’d like to receive these updates, check out our other articles and join our chat group. We provide real time trade alerts, watchlist update, and portfolio adjustments in our chat groups with the links provided below.

Source: author.

Source: author.

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