To The Moon

Inside $Summit Therapeutics PLC(SMMT)$ $15 Billion Leap of Faith Every bull market eventually produces a stock that stops behaving like a company and starts behaving like a referendum. Right now, that stock may be Summit Therapeutics. On one side sit investors convinced ivonescimab is the most important oncology breakthrough in years. On the other are sceptics who see a company worth billions despite having virtually no commercial revenue and a single regulatory hurdle capable of changing everything overnight. The truth is that both camps have a point. And that is precisely why Summit has become one of Wall Street's most fascinating battlegrounds. Wall Street is pricing probabilities, not profits The Drug That Started the Argument Summit's investm

For years, the investment debate around Ford was tediously predictable. Was it simply a cheap legacy carmaker? Could it survive the EV transition? Would Detroit ever catch Tesla? Then, seemingly overnight, Ford threw the script out of the window and wandered into one of the hottest investment themes on the planet: powering artificial intelligence. The timing is no coincidence. Wall Street is quietly undergoing a dramatic rotation away from parts of enterprise software, where investors increasingly fear AI agents will erode traditional seat-based licensing models. Capital is instead flooding towards the physical infrastructure required to make AI work: power generation, cooling, transmission and energy storage. Ford didn't create that shift, but it may have recognised it earlier than most l

When the Biggest Debate Isn’t About Rockets Wall Street rarely disagrees politely, but the battle over SpaceX has become something else entirely. Barely a month after its blockbuster June listing, analysts have somehow managed to look at exactly the same company and conclude it is worth anything between $63 a share, according to Morningstar, and $800, according to Raymond James. That unprecedented $738 valuation spread is not simply a difference of opinion; it is a philosophical argument wearing a spreadsheet. Wall Street cannot escape SpaceX's valuation gravity I find that fascinating because this is no longer a debate about aerospace. It is a debate about what investors believe the next industrial platform will be. At around $150 per share, the market is effectively asking one simple que

Every so often the market serves up a stock that resembles a Rorschach test. Some investors see tomorrow's financial infrastructure. Others see an overvalued middleman living on borrowed time. Right now, Circle Internet is that stock. Every moat begins as someone else's commodity The latest catalyst was dramatic. Reports that Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock and Coinbase are backing the rival Open USD stablecoin knocked more than 17% off Circle's share price in a single session. Yet the analyst reaction was almost surreal. Compass Point cut its price target to US$55, while William Blair maintained a remarkable US$650 valuation, arguing the market had overreacted to competitive fears. When respected analysts looking at exactly the same company disagree by almost 1,100%, the real debate i

When everyone disagrees, I start paying closer attention There is something oddly comforting about consensus. Markets love neat stories, tidy valuations and analyst price targets that huddle together like penguins in a snowstorm. SanDisk is offering none of that. Instead, it has become one of the market's biggest arguments. Within days, one major analyst dramatically lifted their price target by around 76%, while others remained considerably more cautious. Depending on whose spreadsheet I open, SanDisk is either one of the most compelling AI infrastructure investments available or an expensive memory manufacturer riding the latest technology wave before gravity inevitably returns. That disagreement, rather than the share price itself, is what makes SanDisk fascinating today. Wall Street ag

Wall Street Is Measuring the Wrong Turnaround I think Wall Street is asking the wrong question about $Nike(NKE)$. Investors remain fixated on quarterly earnings, margins and revenue beats, yet this is no longer a conventional earnings story. It is a distribution story. That distinction matters. A company can repair a balance sheet in months, but rebuilding an ecosystem of retailers, athletes and consumers after years of strategic missteps is far slower. Trust is not reported every quarter, yet it often determines whether future earnings recover at all. Nike's share price, hovering around levels last seen more than a decade ago, reflects widespread scepticism that the turnaround will succeed. I believe the market is using a scorecard that captures t

The Market Is Pricing Earnings. I Think Washington Is Pricing Permission. For years, investing in UnitedHealth felt almost reassuringly straightforward. The company combined scale, disciplined execution and an unmatched healthcare ecosystem into a machine that compounded earnings with remarkable consistency. Investors debated medical cost trends, margins and valuation multiples, but rarely questioned whether the business model itself would remain politically acceptable. That assumption deserves far more scrutiny today. Healthcare still works. Permission is becoming the scarce asset I think the real investment debate has quietly migrated from earnings power to something much harder to model: political licence. Investors continue to ask how quickly UnitedHealth can restore profitability afte

When Efficiency Stops Looking Like Growth For years, Block seemed to be starring in two entirely different films. In one, it was an innovative fintech reshaping commerce through Square and Cash App. In the other, it was an unfocused pandemic darling distracted by Bitcoin, the costly Afterpay acquisition and the unconventional leadership of Jack Dorsey. Neither story quite reflected what was quietly happening beneath the surface. To me, Block has evolved into something that the market still struggles to recognise. Rather than being primarily a payments company, it is steadily becoming an efficiency platform whose economics improve almost invisibly. That distinction matters because invisible competitive advantages rarely command premium valuations until they have already compounded for years

Why I Think Walmart’s Real Product Is the Customer Investors have become fascinated by Walmart’s advertising business. Every earnings season seems to produce another discussion about retail media, digital ads and whether Walmart Connect can become the next great profit engine. I think the market is staring at the wrong shelf. Advertising matters, but it is merely one expression of a much larger advantage. Walmart’s true asset is its ability to earn multiple streams of income from a single customer interaction. A family that enters a store to buy milk can also become a marketplace customer, a Walmart+ subscriber, a delivery user and an advertising target, all before the trolley reaches the car park. The shopping trolley is quietly becoming a multi-product platform. One trolley. Several busi

The Balance Sheet Behind the Fairy Tale For years, investors have treated Disney as though streaming was the only story worth following. I think that misses the bigger plot entirely. The real investment case no longer revolves around whether Disney+ can make money — it already has. Instead, I believe Disney's future valuation depends on something far less glamorous but infinitely more important: how management allocates capital. That may not inspire a theme park ride, but it is precisely how shareholder wealth is created. At roughly US$102 per share, Disney trades on a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of around 16 and a forward multiple below 14. Those are hardly the valuations of a company that owns some of the world's most valuable intellectual property. Yet the market continues to treat