To The Moon

US 10-Year Treasury Yield1. Any more bank failure?The Bank crisis stabilized after the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank injected deposits to restore confidence. We can’t rule out any bank failure in Q2, especially the collapse of Lehman Brother after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Having said that, the material difference between now and the global financial crisis is the asset quality, that the subprime loan is basically at default while the long-term treasury and MBS many banks are holding now can recoup the floating loss if they can be held until maturity. The situation will improve with time. The drop of treasury yield because of risk aversion is also a self-cure mechanism that reduces the floating loss, and lower depositors’ incentive to move money out from the banki

Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price might reverse if Russia refuse to renew the export deal.Energy products are the main focus in this war since Russia is the world’s key energy exporter. NYMEX WTI crude oil $Light Crude Oil - main 2301(CLmain)$ price started from USD92.10 as of the close of 23 Feb 2022, and reached an intraday high of USD130.5 per barrel in March. NYMEX Natural gas

Thanks to a strong January employment report, the greenback $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ made an impressive comeback from the weakness since Q4 2022. Someone might expect the strength could persist and even test 2022’s high, but I regard this as a rebound and the dollar will likely trade in a range between 100 to 108 (Dollar Index basis) in 1H 2023. EUR vs 2-year yield differential between US and GermanyFirst of all, the strength of greenback last year mainly came from an aggressive rate hike by Federal Reserve that kept the bond yield evaluated and widened the yield differential. As the chart shown, the yield differential of 2-year bond between US and Germany kept widening since 2H 2021 and reached the peak at Q

Happy New Year of Rabbit! We will have a busy week. In addition to companies keep reporting result (Four of the FANNG companies will report earnings this week), other major events include a decisive Fed meeting, ECB meeting, BOE meeting, US employment data and OPEC+ meeting. Everyone’s focus will be on Fed meeting. Market fully expects a 25bp rise this week, and Fed might bow to market pressure and adapt a slower hiking pace. Having said that, the risk is Fed might signal there will be more interest rate hikes before the rate reach above 5%, rather than Fed Watch pricing in a pause at 4.75%. There is no doubt inflation is slowing down and the decelerating pace is pretty impressive, but there is still a big gap from the 2% target. Although there was some layoff news, they mainly c

Gold moved opposite to the dollar in 2022. Since the greenback has been strengthening against major currencies, the gold did not perform very well and reached a low of USD1,618 (COMEX Gold Futures) before recovering by the end of the year. However, things might change in 2023 and there are several important factors supporting the gold price. We might expect gold to hit a record high this year.● Dollar weaknessStrong dollar pressed gold in 2022, but we expect the greenback will be on the defensive in 2023, since the end of the hiking cycle will not widen the interest rate differential further. Recession will also likely press the dollar if there is any expectation of an interest rate cut. I expect the dollar index might retreat to 94, which will give a strong boost to gold. ● Fed hike

Happy Holidays! After a turbulent 2022, there will be a lot of factors affecting the investment market in 2023. I have picked the three most important ones to talk about. When will the Fed stop hiking rates?Will we have a global recession?How will China's reopening impact the market? Welcome to Read：2022 Review: War & FedWhen will the Fed stop hiking rates?I respect the Fed's pivot table showing that the Fed Fund Rate will go up to 5.1%, but I don’t think it will go any higher, nor will it go below that level by the end of 2023. The pattern of interest rate hike could be (1) three 25 bp hikes or (2) one 50 bp followed by one 25bp. The market will cheer if the next Fed hike is 25 bp since it opens the

2022 was a year of volatility. The Equity Market was virtually on a downtrend until some recovery by the end of the year. There were two key factors behind the drop: the Russia-Ukraine war which started in February and the monetary policy, which the Fed tightened by aggressively hiking interest rates to tackle inflation. The war made supply chains that had been disrupted by Covid to become more complicated, especially the prices of commodities, which have been pushed up. This fueled inflation around the world. Inflation was inevitable anyway because of Covid related fiscal, monetary support, and supply chain issues, but the war made it worse. That’s why some developed countries experienced double digit inflation rates that should only be seen in developing countries. When inflation be