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- DLIFEDLIFE
  ·2023-05-05
  Not convinced at all *2 If you look at actual US data, instead of just judging from what he said in the press. There isno guarantee the Fed will stop rate hike in June. The statement could at best interpreted as there is possibility of a pause (given the data looks good in June). Anyone going into the US stock market right now is more of less just gambling.
  The Fed Actually Just Gave a Great Reason for Stocks to Soar
  In its recent announcement, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike p
  The Fed Actually Just Gave a Great Reason for Stocks to Soar
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- DLIFEDLIFE
  ·2023-03-11
  Good news
  Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates
  Fed officials could debate whether to raise rates by a quarter- or half-percentage-point at their next meeting
  Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates
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- DLIFEDLIFE
  ·2023-03-11
  Ready to trade yea. Qqq and Sox all day
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There isno guarantee the Fed&nbsp;will stop rate hike in&nbsp;June. The statement could at best interpreted as there is possibility of a pause (given the data looks good in June).&nbsp; Anyone going into the US stock market right&nbsp;now is more&nbsp;of less just gambling.","listText":"Not convinced at all *2 If you look at actual US data, instead of just judging from what he said in the press. There isno guarantee the Fed&nbsp;will stop rate hike in&nbsp;June. The statement could at best interpreted as there is possibility of a pause (given the data looks good in June).&nbsp; Anyone going into the US stock market right&nbsp;now is more&nbsp;of less just gambling.","text":"Not convinced at all *2 If you look at actual US data, instead of just judging from what he said in the press. There isno guarantee the Fed will stop rate hike in June. The statement could at best interpreted as there is possibility of a pause (given the data looks good in June). Anyone going into the US stock market right now is more of less just gambling.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947537216","repostId":"1172261769","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172261769","pubTimestamp":1683300310,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172261769?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-05 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Actually Just Gave a Great Reason for Stocks to Soar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172261769","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"In its recent announcement, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike p","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>In its recent announcement, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike press release since March 2022. They served to signal to the market that more rate hikes were coming.</li><li>By omitting them from this month’s release, the Fed is implicitly signaling that no more rate hikes are coming.</li><li>Since 1980, every single “Fed Pause” has sparked a stock market rally. Every single one.</li></ul>The stock market has been waiting all year long for one thing: the Fed to pause its rate-hike campaign. Yesterday, the central bank signaled it is getting ready to do just that and, in so doing, gave stocks permission to soar. The story here is shockingly simple. In the end, it all comes down to the Fed. Want to know whether you should buy stocks yet? It depends on what the Fed is planning to do next. The U.S. Federal Reserve rules the financial universe. It controls the amount of money floating around the U.S. economy. This affects consumer spending, business growth, and stock prices.That’s why Wall Street has that old saying: “Don’t fight the Fed!” A good rule of thumb is to buy stocks when the Fed is the market’s friend (not hiking rates), and sell stocks when it’s the market’s enemy (hiking rates). And over the past year and change, the Fed has been the stock market’s public enemy No. 1. <h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Will the Fed Ever Be Done With Rate Hikes?</h2>Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 consecutive times – including four jumbo 75-basis-point hikes – in what has been the most aggressive and rapid rate-hiking campaign ever. It should be no surprise that stocks have slumped since then. The Fed started hiking rates aggressively. Stocks started crashing. But over the past few months, things have started to shift. Throughout last year, the Fed was continually getting more aggressive with its policy stance. The rate hikes kept getting bigger. But in the last month of 2022, the central bank downshifted from a 75-basis-point hike to a 50-basis-point hike. In the first month of 2023, it downshifted again, this time to a “normal” 25-basis-point hike. And it’s stayed there ever since. In other words, starting in mid-December 2022, the Federal Reserve started to get less aggressive with its rate hikes. This means it started to become more friendly to the stock market. And what has happened since December 2022? Stocks have rallied. The S&amp;P 500 is up more than 6% year-to-date, after falling about 20% in 2022. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1f99361ef1958d92666b03db441abc\" alt=\"A graph showing the change in the S&amp;P 500 since January 2023\" title=\"A graph showing the change in the S&amp;P 500 since January 2023\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"598\"/>A graph showing the change in the S&amp;P 500 since January 2023Again, that should be no surprise. It all comes back to the Fed. Over the past few months, it has become less aggressive with its monetary policy. Consequently, stocks have rallied. And that brings us to yesterday.Yesterday, the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points, continuing the trend it established in December 2022. However, in the press release that announced the rate hike, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike press release since March 2022. They served to signal to the market that more rate hikes were coming. By omitting them from this month’s release, the Fed is implicitly signaling that no more rate hikes are coming. In fact, Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell confirmed as much in his press conference yesterday. He explicitly said that the omission of these phrases was “meaningful.” Take from that what you will. To me, the implication is obvious. <h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The Final Word</h2>Let’s go back to our golden rule of the stock market. When the Fed becomes less friendly toward markets, sell stocks. When the Fed becomes more friendly toward markets, buy stocks. The Federal Reserve is about to take a massive step to become more friendly to markets by stopping its rate-hike campaign in June. You know what happens to stocks when the Fed pauses a rate-hike campaignAs you can see in the chart below, they rally. Every time. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155bfc83113d0d8ecc77410f89e17dfc\" alt=\"A graph showing the change in the Fed&#39;s target rate and the S&amp;P 500 over time\" title=\"A graph showing the change in the Fed&#39;s target rate and the S&amp;P 500 over time\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"495\"/>A graph showing the change in the Fed&#39;s target rate and the S&amp;P 500 over timeIn other words, I’m writing to you today to deliver three crystal-clear messages:<ol><li>The Fed just signaled it will pause its rate-hike campaign next month. </li><li>Since 1980, every single “Fed Pause” has sparked a stock market rally. Every single one. </li><li>In those “Pause” rallies, tech stocks tend to be the biggest winners, posting average returns of about 30% in a year. </li></ol>The implication? It’s time to buy tech stocks. I see a big tech-driven stock market rally just around the corner. I also believe certain tech stocks are going to soar 100%-plus in that rally. </body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Actually Just Gave a Great Reason for Stocks to Soar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Actually Just Gave a Great Reason for Stocks to Soar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-05 23:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/the-fed-actually-just-gave-a-great-reason-for-stocks-to-soar/>InvestorPlace</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nIn its recent announcement, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike press release since March 2022. They served to signal to the market that more rate hikes were coming....\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/the-fed-actually-just-gave-a-great-reason-for-stocks-to-soar/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/the-fed-actually-just-gave-a-great-reason-for-stocks-to-soar/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172261769","content_text":"In its recent announcement, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike press release since March 2022. They served to signal to the market that more rate hikes were coming.By omitting them from this month’s release, the Fed is implicitly signaling that no more rate hikes are coming.Since 1980, every single “Fed Pause” has sparked a stock market rally. Every single one.The stock market has been waiting all year long for one thing: the Fed to pause its rate-hike campaign. Yesterday, the central bank signaled it is getting ready to do just that and, in so doing, gave stocks permission to soar. The story here is shockingly simple. In the end, it all comes down to the Fed. Want to know whether you should buy stocks yet? It depends on what the Fed is planning to do next. The U.S. Federal Reserve rules the financial universe. It controls the amount of money floating around the U.S. economy. This affects consumer spending, business growth, and stock prices.That’s why Wall Street has that old saying: “Don’t fight the Fed!” A good rule of thumb is to buy stocks when the Fed is the market’s friend (not hiking rates), and sell stocks when it’s the market’s enemy (hiking rates). And over the past year and change, the Fed has been the stock market’s public enemy No. 1. Will the Fed Ever Be Done With Rate Hikes?Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 consecutive times – including four jumbo 75-basis-point hikes – in what has been the most aggressive and rapid rate-hiking campaign ever. It should be no surprise that stocks have slumped since then. The Fed started hiking rates aggressively. Stocks started crashing. But over the past few months, things have started to shift. Throughout last year, the Fed was continually getting more aggressive with its policy stance. The rate hikes kept getting bigger. But in the last month of 2022, the central bank downshifted from a 75-basis-point hike to a 50-basis-point hike. In the first month of 2023, it downshifted again, this time to a “normal” 25-basis-point hike. And it’s stayed there ever since. In other words, starting in mid-December 2022, the Federal Reserve started to get less aggressive with its rate hikes. This means it started to become more friendly to the stock market. And what has happened since December 2022? Stocks have rallied. The S&P 500 is up more than 6% year-to-date, after falling about 20% in 2022. A graph showing the change in the S&P 500 since January 2023Again, that should be no surprise. It all comes back to the Fed. Over the past few months, it has become less aggressive with its monetary policy. Consequently, stocks have rallied. And that brings us to yesterday.Yesterday, the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points, continuing the trend it established in December 2022. However, in the press release that announced the rate hike, the Fed omitted certain words and phrases that were in every rate-hike press release since March 2022. They served to signal to the market that more rate hikes were coming. By omitting them from this month’s release, the Fed is implicitly signaling that no more rate hikes are coming. In fact, Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell confirmed as much in his press conference yesterday. He explicitly said that the omission of these phrases was “meaningful.” Take from that what you will. To me, the implication is obvious. The Final WordLet’s go back to our golden rule of the stock market. When the Fed becomes less friendly toward markets, sell stocks. When the Fed becomes more friendly toward markets, buy stocks. The Federal Reserve is about to take a massive step to become more friendly to markets by stopping its rate-hike campaign in June. You know what happens to stocks when the Fed pauses a rate-hike campaignAs you can see in the chart below, they rally. Every time. A graph showing the change in the Fed's target rate and the S&P 500 over timeIn other words, I’m writing to you today to deliver three crystal-clear messages:The Fed just signaled it will pause its rate-hike campaign next month. Since 1980, every single “Fed Pause” has sparked a stock market rally. Every single one. In those “Pause” rallies, tech stocks tend to be the biggest winners, posting average returns of about 30% in a year. The implication? It’s time to buy tech stocks. I see a big tech-driven stock market rally just around the corner. I also believe certain tech stocks are going to soar 100%-plus in that rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949609557,"gmtCreate":1678545710480,"gmtModify":1678588510327,"author":{"id":"4141355404467252","authorId":"4141355404467252","name":"DLIFE","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e22f02658e2ae41eba92e3a09207b0cb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949609557","repostId":"1188991015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188991015","pubTimestamp":1678524311,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188991015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-11 16:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188991015","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Fed officials could debate whether to raise rates by a quarter- or half-percentage-point at their next meeting","content":"<html><head></head><body>The February employment report does little to sharply alter the economic outlook for Federal Reserve officials who are considering how much to raise interest rates at their coming meeting.But the failure of a California bank on Friday led investors on Wall Street to pare their bets that the central bank would opt for a larger half-percentage-point increase, rather than a smaller quarter-point bump, amid broader concerns about financial stability risks.Investors in interest-rate futures markets on Friday afternoon saw a nearly 60% probability of a quarter-point, or 25-basis-point, rate rise, according to CME Group. The probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase fell to 40%, from 70% on Thursday.Employers added 311,000 jobs in February and revisions to earlier months were minor, meaning job gains averaged more than 350,000 a month since December—robust growth in an already tight labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% last month because more people looked for jobs, a further sign of economic strength.But wage growth moderated last month, suggesting that strong labor demand isn’t spurring rapid increases in workers’ paychecks. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 4.6% over the 12 months through February, but the pace slowed to an annualized 3.6% over the past three months.For policy makers, “if you are vacillating between 25 and 50, you’d be more inclined to go 25 at this point because of the added concern” over the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021.Friday’s employment report shows the job market is too hot, said Mr. Rosengren. But the problems at Silicon Valley Bank illustrate how raising rates rapidly gives the Fed less time to monitor the delayed impact of its actions, he said.“Having a close to $200 billion bank have a liquidity problem that caused a failure in the middle of the week has to be a source of concern,” said Mr. Rosengren. Fed officials are “going to want to be able to evaluate what impact it is going to have on broader financial markets.”Fed policy makers were set to begin their traditional premeeting quiet period Saturday ahead of their March 21-22 meeting.Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said the central bank was keeping its options open in considering whether to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-point—as officials did last month and had been widely anticipated until very recently—or by a larger half-point, as they did in December.“I stress that no decision has been made on this,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “But if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”In addition to Friday’s employment report, he said two inflation reports next week, including the consumer-price index due Tuesday, could influence the decision.Economists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley said Friday they believed the smaller quarter-point rate rise was more likely, but that was based on their expectations that core-CPI prices, which exclude food and energy, will rise 0.4% in February.“Absent a surprise on Tuesday, we think they will be comfortable” with a quarter-point rate rise, said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon and a former senior Fed economist.Others think the inflation report will need to be milder to prevent the Fed from raising rates by a half-point. Barring a major surprise on inflation, signs of broad-based strength in the labor market “strongly imply that the Federal Reserve will need to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points” this month, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM U.S.He said hardship due to interest-rate risks “among select small and medium-sized banks is not sufficient to cause the Fed to pull back from its primary objective” of combating inflation.If the CPI doesn’t notably slow down in February, “it will have been very hard to have opened the door to 50 and not walk through that door,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who served as a top adviser to former President Barack Obama.Details on how the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which took control of the Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, resolves the bank could shape any spillovers to the rest of the banking system, especially small and midsize banks with a similar profile.SVB was focused heavily on lending to venture-capital firms, and the ultimate resolution of the bank’s assets could have broader implications for endowments and pension funds that have increased their exposures to venture capital, said Mr. Rosengren.Fed officials slowed their pace of rate rises last month when they increased their benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage-point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That followed increases of a larger 0.5 percentage point in December and 0.75 percentage point in November and at three previous meetings.Officials said last month that moving in smaller steps would better allow them to assess the effects of their rapid increases last year and reduce the risk of raising rates too much.Mr. Powell said this week officials were likely to project at their coming meeting that they would raise rates to higher levels than they previously anticipated to bring inflation down. In December, most of them thought they would raise the fed-funds rate to between 5% and 5.5% this year.Since Fed officials last met on Feb. 1, several economic reports have revealed hiring, spending and inflation were stronger in January than expected. More important, data revisions showed inflation and labor demand didn’t soften as much as initially reported late last year.“We’re looking at a reversal, really, of what we thought we were seeing to some extent,” said Mr. Powell on Tuesday. “Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much.”The Fed has been trying to curb investment, spending and hiring by raising rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow and can push down the price of assets such as stocks and real estate. The fed-funds rate influences other borrowing costs throughout the economy.</body></html>","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-11 16:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-report-offers-little-to-change-interest-rate-outlook-for-the-fed-2b5bf1d4?mod=economy_lead_pos2>The Wall Street Journal</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe February employment report does little to sharply alter the economic outlook for Federal Reserve officials who are considering how much to raise interest rates at their coming meeting.But the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-report-offers-little-to-change-interest-rate-outlook-for-the-fed-2b5bf1d4?mod=economy_lead_pos2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-report-offers-little-to-change-interest-rate-outlook-for-the-fed-2b5bf1d4?mod=economy_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188991015","content_text":"The February employment report does little to sharply alter the economic outlook for Federal Reserve officials who are considering how much to raise interest rates at their coming meeting.But the failure of a California bank on Friday led investors on Wall Street to pare their bets that the central bank would opt for a larger half-percentage-point increase, rather than a smaller quarter-point bump, amid broader concerns about financial stability risks.Investors in interest-rate futures markets on Friday afternoon saw a nearly 60% probability of a quarter-point, or 25-basis-point, rate rise, according to CME Group. The probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase fell to 40%, from 70% on Thursday.Employers added 311,000 jobs in February and revisions to earlier months were minor, meaning job gains averaged more than 350,000 a month since December—robust growth in an already tight labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% last month because more people looked for jobs, a further sign of economic strength.But wage growth moderated last month, suggesting that strong labor demand isn’t spurring rapid increases in workers’ paychecks. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 4.6% over the 12 months through February, but the pace slowed to an annualized 3.6% over the past three months.For policy makers, “if you are vacillating between 25 and 50, you’d be more inclined to go 25 at this point because of the added concern” over the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021.Friday’s employment report shows the job market is too hot, said Mr. Rosengren. But the problems at Silicon Valley Bank illustrate how raising rates rapidly gives the Fed less time to monitor the delayed impact of its actions, he said.“Having a close to $200 billion bank have a liquidity problem that caused a failure in the middle of the week has to be a source of concern,” said Mr. Rosengren. Fed officials are “going to want to be able to evaluate what impact it is going to have on broader financial markets.”Fed policy makers were set to begin their traditional premeeting quiet period Saturday ahead of their March 21-22 meeting.Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said the central bank was keeping its options open in considering whether to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-point—as officials did last month and had been widely anticipated until very recently—or by a larger half-point, as they did in December.“I stress that no decision has been made on this,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “But if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”In addition to Friday’s employment report, he said two inflation reports next week, including the consumer-price index due Tuesday, could influence the decision.Economists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley said Friday they believed the smaller quarter-point rate rise was more likely, but that was based on their expectations that core-CPI prices, which exclude food and energy, will rise 0.4% in February.“Absent a surprise on Tuesday, we think they will be comfortable” with a quarter-point rate rise, said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon and a former senior Fed economist.Others think the inflation report will need to be milder to prevent the Fed from raising rates by a half-point. Barring a major surprise on inflation, signs of broad-based strength in the labor market “strongly imply that the Federal Reserve will need to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points” this month, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM U.S.He said hardship due to interest-rate risks “among select small and medium-sized banks is not sufficient to cause the Fed to pull back from its primary objective” of combating inflation.If the CPI doesn’t notably slow down in February, “it will have been very hard to have opened the door to 50 and not walk through that door,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who served as a top adviser to former President Barack Obama.Details on how the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which took control of the Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, resolves the bank could shape any spillovers to the rest of the banking system, especially small and midsize banks with a similar profile.SVB was focused heavily on lending to venture-capital firms, and the ultimate resolution of the bank’s assets could have broader implications for endowments and pension funds that have increased their exposures to venture capital, said Mr. Rosengren.Fed officials slowed their pace of rate rises last month when they increased their benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage-point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That followed increases of a larger 0.5 percentage point in December and 0.75 percentage point in November and at three previous meetings.Officials said last month that moving in smaller steps would better allow them to assess the effects of their rapid increases last year and reduce the risk of raising rates too much.Mr. Powell said this week officials were likely to project at their coming meeting that they would raise rates to higher levels than they previously anticipated to bring inflation down. In December, most of them thought they would raise the fed-funds rate to between 5% and 5.5% this year.Since Fed officials last met on Feb. 1, several economic reports have revealed hiring, spending and inflation were stronger in January than expected. More important, data revisions showed inflation and labor demand didn’t soften as much as initially reported late last year.“We’re looking at a reversal, really, of what we thought we were seeing to some extent,” said Mr. Powell on Tuesday. “Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much.”The Fed has been trying to curb investment, spending and hiring by raising rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow and can push down the price of assets such as stocks and real estate. The fed-funds rate influences other borrowing costs throughout the economy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949896239,"gmtCreate":1678468330421,"gmtModify":1678468744659,"author":{"id":"4141355404467252","authorId":"4141355404467252","name":"DLIFE","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e22f02658e2ae41eba92e3a09207b0cb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ready to trade yea. Qqq and Sox all day","listText":"Ready to trade yea. Qqq and Sox all day","text":"Ready to trade yea. Qqq and Sox all day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949896239","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}