Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates

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Jobs Report, Bank Failure Complicate Outlook on Interest Rates

The Wall Street Journal2023-03-11

The February employment report does little to sharply alter the economic outlook for Federal Reserve officials who are considering how much to raise interest rates at their coming meeting.But the ...

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MIe
·2023-03-12
scb collapse contagion effect
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10
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AlanChong
·2023-03-12
Ok
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8
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UTOtrader
·2023-03-12
T
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11
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Khoo18
·2023-03-12
K
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8
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GoG
·2023-03-12
K
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9
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- FreePrincess:
  Ok
  2023-03-12
  Reply
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- GoG:
  k
  2023-03-12
  Reply
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h20_mako
·2023-03-12
🤔
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7
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- h20_mako:
  👍
  2023-03-12
  Reply
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Seah CL
·2023-03-12
K
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7
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andrew123
·2023-03-12
Like
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7
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- Khoo18:
  k
  2023-03-12
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PooYen
·2023-03-12
[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]
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6
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Humama888
·2023-03-12
Noted that there will be interest rate hikes
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9
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sahputra19
·2023-03-12
Good
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- sahputra19:
  bank mandiri
  2023-03-12
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Aldi septiadi
·2023-03-12
Nice
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Pierre0520
·2023-03-12
Like
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17
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- Pierre0520:
  Ok
  2023-03-12
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DLIFE
·2023-03-11
Good news
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BKT
·2023-03-11
Pls like thanks
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- selwyn:
  k
  2023-03-12
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TeslaLegend
·2023-03-11
Nice
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22
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NPC69
·2023-03-11
K
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Deonc
·2023-03-11
Ok
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The probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase fell to 40%, from 70% on Thursday.Employers added 311,000 jobs in February and revisions to earlier months were minor, meaning job gains averaged more than 350,000 a month since December—robust growth in an already tight labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% last month because more people looked for jobs, a further sign of economic strength.But wage growth moderated last month, suggesting that strong labor demand isn’t spurring rapid increases in workers’ paychecks. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 4.6% over the 12 months through February, but the pace slowed to an annualized 3.6% over the past three months.For policy makers, “if you are vacillating between 25 and 50, you’d be more inclined to go 25 at this point because of the added concern” over the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021.Friday’s employment report shows the job market is too hot, said Mr. Rosengren. But the problems at Silicon Valley Bank illustrate how raising rates rapidly gives the Fed less time to monitor the delayed impact of its actions, he said.“Having a close to $200 billion bank have a liquidity problem that caused a failure in the middle of the week has to be a source of concern,” said Mr. Rosengren. Fed officials are “going to want to be able to evaluate what impact it is going to have on broader financial markets.”Fed policy makers were set to begin their traditional premeeting quiet period Saturday ahead of their March 21-22 meeting.Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week said the central bank was keeping its options open in considering whether to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-point—as officials did last month and had been widely anticipated until very recently—or by a larger half-point, as they did in December.“I stress that no decision has been made on this,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “But if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”In addition to Friday’s employment report, he said two inflation reports next week, including the consumer-price index due Tuesday, could influence the decision.Economists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley said Friday they believed the smaller quarter-point rate rise was more likely, but that was based on their expectations that core-CPI prices, which exclude food and energy, will rise 0.4% in February.“Absent a surprise on Tuesday, we think they will be comfortable” with a quarter-point rate rise, said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon and a former senior Fed economist.Others think the inflation report will need to be milder to prevent the Fed from raising rates by a half-point. Barring a major surprise on inflation, signs of broad-based strength in the labor market “strongly imply that the Federal Reserve will need to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points” this month, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM U.S.He said hardship due to interest-rate risks “among select small and medium-sized banks is not sufficient to cause the Fed to pull back from its primary objective” of combating inflation.If the CPI doesn’t notably slow down in February, “it will have been very hard to have opened the door to 50 and not walk through that door,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who served as a top adviser to former President Barack Obama.Details on how the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which took control of the Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, resolves the bank could shape any spillovers to the rest of the banking system, especially small and midsize banks with a similar profile.SVB was focused heavily on lending to venture-capital firms, and the ultimate resolution of the bank’s assets could have broader implications for endowments and pension funds that have increased their exposures to venture capital, said Mr. Rosengren.Fed officials slowed their pace of rate rises last month when they increased their benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage-point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That followed increases of a larger 0.5 percentage point in December and 0.75 percentage point in November and at three previous meetings.Officials said last month that moving in smaller steps would better allow them to assess the effects of their rapid increases last year and reduce the risk of raising rates too much.Mr. Powell said this week officials were likely to project at their coming meeting that they would raise rates to higher levels than they previously anticipated to bring inflation down. In December, most of them thought they would raise the fed-funds rate to between 5% and 5.5% this year.Since Fed officials last met on Feb. 1, several economic reports have revealed hiring, spending and inflation were stronger in January than expected. More important, data revisions showed inflation and labor demand didn’t soften as much as initially reported late last year.“We’re looking at a reversal, really, of what we thought we were seeing to some extent,” said Mr. Powell on Tuesday. “Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much.”The Fed has been trying to curb investment, spending and hiring by raising rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow and can push down the price of assets such as stocks and real estate. 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