$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 8000 by year-end (about +6% from now), riding on earnings resilience with expected EPS growth of 24% 2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)
- AI revenue: $3.2B in 2025 → $322B in 2030, roughly 100x - Total revenue: $18.7B last year (+33% YoY) → $474B in 2030 - AI ramp: +388% YoY to $15.6B in 2026, $34.5B in 2027
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 8000 by year-end (about +6% from now), riding on earnings resilience with expected EPS growth of 24% 2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)
US stocks pulled back from record highs, and $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ hit a new low, falling below $62,000 — its lowest level since February 6. Strategy sold off a massive holding of roughly $2.5 million in Bitcoin. "Bitcoin's price fell this week because Strategy broke its 'never sell' promise."
For years the semiconductor spotlight was on GPUs. But over the past six months, AI workloads have shifted from training to inference and agents (Agentic AI) — GPUs "compute," CPUs "manage": calling tools, routing sub-agents, tracking task completion. That's CPU work.
Its significance isn't "yet another AI PC," but rather: the x86 duopoly that Intel and AMD have maintained on Windows for decades has, for the first time, been stabbed head-on by an Arm-camp super chip. Looking down this chain, the positions of who benefits and who gets hurt are crystal clear.
Buying the "current highest-alpha node" of the AI industry chain. Core logic: compute demand from companies like Anthropic is growing 5x faster than storage, making storage the most certain bottleneck right now. Premium HBM capacity is monopolized by three companies — China cannot replicate this.
The S&P hit new highs but only 4% (21 names) made new highs alongside it. Meanwhile 222 stocks are down more than 20% from their highs, and 109 are down more than 40%. BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator spiked to 8.5, entering extreme-bullish territory and triggering a strong contrarian "sell" signal. Money is pouring into high-yield (HY) and emerging-market (EM) debt, with global equity breadth approaching overbought. The new highs are being carried by a handful of leaders.
US stocks climbed steadily through May and closed the month at fresh record highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.15%, closing at 7,580 (intraday high 7,599); $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$finished +8.36%, closing at 26,972 (high 27,095); and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$crossed 30,000 for the first time, closing at 30,333. AI/tech led again. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ kept sliding after its earnings; Trump's China visit and policy moves sparked a policy-driven rally; and the looming Fed chair transition is set to weigh heavily on the months ahead.
$Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$, $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$. Power gap is widening. At the end of the AI compute chain, there's just electricity demand. Long-term certainty is high. The window hasn't opened yet — but the direction is clear.